Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:16:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 4551.pdf: 2510122 bytes, checksum: 2aa21468d6defe40627b244ed77a11ba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02-27 / The need to assign values to consumer and globalization have created a new format in the economy. These phenomena have increased investments in technology until the crisis of 1970 that generated a reduction in economic growth and consequently reduction in research funding. This context created resources that could gauge the areas that lacked development. One of the solutions found was the creation of scientific and technological indicators. Nanotechnology is considered one of the key technologies of the century, has been conceptualized this way featuring how important application in multidisciplinary areas. The present study aims to indicate and analyze information on technological innovations in nanotechnology based on indicators developed from the full text of patents. To achieve the proposed objectives used data mining technique to generate knowledge based on information from U.S. patents. The results obtained so far have shown that North American patents grew 80.85% over the past five years, the main patent application is for semiconductor devices corresponding to 24.4% of all applications, Asian countries are distinguished by the large number of applications in semiconductor devices and fabrication and tract of nanostructures and among the patents deposited in the U.S. Brazil is the state that is 23° position in the ranking although it is still very distant from other countries examined in this research. For criteria of information extraction from textual structure of patent claims were created smaller structures than they could submit their own meanings and enable understanding lexical and logical. Using another filter extract the claims textual contain from Brazilians priority patents . / A necessidade de atribuir valores aos bens de consumo e a globalização criaram um novo formato na economia. Esses fenômenos aumentaram os investimentos em tecnologia até a crise de 1970 que gerou redução no crescimento econômico e, por consequência, redução nos financiamentos de pesquisa. Esse contexto impulsionou a criação de recursos que pudessem mensurar as áreas que careciam de desenvolvimento. Uma das soluções encontradas foi a criação de indicadores científicos e tecnológicos. A nanotecnologia considerada uma das principais tecnologias do século, vem sendo conceituada dessa forma caracterizando-se como importante aplicação em áreas multidisciplinares. Dessa forma, o presente estudo tem como objetivo apontar e analisar informações sobre inovações tecnológicas em nanotecnologia com base em indicadores desenvolvidos a partir do texto integral de patentes. Para alcançar os objetivos propostos utilizou-se técnica de mineração de dados para gerar conhecimento com base em informações de patentes norte-americanas. Os resultados obtidos até o presente momento mostraram que as patentes norte-americanas cresceram 80,85% nos últimos cinco anos, a principal aplicação de patentes é referente a dispositivos semicondutores correspondendo a 24,4% de todas as aplicações, os países asiáticos se destacam pelo grande número de aplicações em dispositivos semi-condutores e pela fabricação e trato de nano estruturas e dentre as patentes depositadas nos EUA, o Brasil é o 23° país que mais solicita embora ainda esteja muito distante dos outros países analisados na presente pesquisa. Quanto aos critérios para extração de informação da estrutura textual de reivindicações de patentes criaram-se estruturas menores que pudessem apresentar significados próprios e permitir a compreensão lógica e léxica. Com base em outro filtro extraiu-se os conteúdo textual da reivindicação das patentes de prioridade brasileira.

With the significant advancementstaking place in the last three decades in the field ofInformation Technology (IT), we are witnesses of an era unprecedented to the standards that mankind was used to, for centuries. Having access to a huge amount of dataalmost instantly,entails certainadvantages. One of which is the ability to observe in which segments of their expertise do scientists focus their research. That kind of knowledge, if properly appraised could hold the key to explaining what the new directions of the applied sciences will be and thus could help to constructing a “map” of the future developments from the Research and Development labs of the industries worldwide.Though the above statement may be considered too “futuristic”, already there have been documented attempts in the literature that have been fruitful into using vast amount of scientific data in an attempt to outline future scientific trends and thus scientific discoveries.The purpose of this research is to try to use a pioneeringmethodof modeling text corpora that already hasbeen used previously to the task of mapping the history of scientific discovery, that of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)and try to evaluate itsusability into detecting emerging research trends by the mere use of only the “Abstracts” from a collectionof scientific articles.To do that an experimental set is being utilized and the process is repeated over three experimental runs.The results, although not the ones that would validate the hypothesis, are showing that with certain improvements in the processing the hypothesis could be confirmed.

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Submitted by Anderson Silva (avargas@icict.fiocruz.br) on 2012-09-13T14:30:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 leonardo.leite.dissertacao.ppgics.2009.pdf: 1412337 bytes, checksum: 9eabc618ae89d50895dd0f83ade7b915 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-09-13T14:30:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 leonardo.leite.dissertacao.ppgics.2009.pdf: 1412337 bytes, checksum: 9eabc618ae89d50895dd0f83ade7b915 (MD5) / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Assessoria da Presidência. Coordenação de Gestão Tecnológica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / A competitividade cada vez mais acirrada tem feito com que empresas busquem formas de obter e manter vantagens sobre seus concorrentes. Uma das formas é através do monitoramento ambiental ou monitoramento tecnológico. Para que o monitoramento de informação seja eficaz é necessário planejamento de busca que enfoque a melhor base para a realização da busca; as palavras-chave adequadas; a fórmula lógica da estratégia. O planejamento da busca necessita de um conhecimento minucioso das técnicas de estratégia de busca, dos prós e contras da estratégia no texto completo dos documentos, do uso das linguagens natural e controlada na recuperação da informação. Neste sentido, esta dissertação apresenta como questão norteadora a forma como se deve elaborar uma estratégia de busca de informação em documentos de patente para monitoramento tecnológico. Mais especificamente, o trabalho apresenta as características das principais bases de patentes existentes; avaliação do uso da linguagem natural e controlada; do uso de truncagem nas palavras-chave, da localização dos termos selecionados e quanto ao escopo de proteção do documento de patente. Como foco da estratégia de busca foi definido o diagnóstico da malária pela importância da doença em nível mundial, considerando que um diagnóstico preciso influencia no tratamento mais adequado e pode-se alcançar reduções nos custos das despesas de saúde em todo o mundo. A estratégia de busca foi elaborada, na base de dados de patentes Derwent, pelo cruzamento de palavras representativas do conceito malária e diagnóstico, associados à classificação internacional de patentes no intervalo 2005 a 2009. Os dados foram tratados e classificados em software de mineração de texto, em dois níveis: primeiramente quanto à relevância para a malária, em segundo quanto ao escopo de proteção. Os resultados mostram que maior parte dos documentos de patente não são específicos para malária, nem tão pouco para o diagnóstico, a busca por termos apenas no título limita o retorno dos resultados já que a maior parte dos conceitos foram encontrados no resumo; o uso da linguagem natural e controlada na mesma estratégia de busca é fundamental para se obter retorno mais preciso da informação; a truncagem de termos é importante na estratégia de busca, porém é necessário conhecimento das combinações dos termos para que não sejam recuperadas informações irrelevantes. Como conclusão pode-se dizer que não há estratégia de busca que apresente 100% de relevância quanto aos documentos recuperados, no que diz respeito à busca de patentes. A meta da estratégia de busca ideal seria uma revocação elevada e uma alta precisão; no entanto, revocação e precisão tendem a se correlacionar inversamente, ou seja, uma maior precisão leva a uma menor revocação e vice-versa, o que significa que o pesquisador de patentes tem de encontrar o equilíbrio adequado entre estes polos de acordo com o tipo de busca escolhida. / The increasingly fierce competition between companies in the market has made these companies look for ways to obtain and maintain an advantage over their competitors. One way is through environmental monitoring or tracking technology. For monitoring information is needed is an effective strategic planning search: better basis for decision of the context for and the decision of the keywords and the decision of the logical formula of the strategy. More specifically the strategic planning of search requires a thorough knowledge of the techniques of search strategy, the pros and cons of the strategy in full-text documents, the use of controlled natural languages in information retrieval. Thus, this paper presents as main question is how to devise a strategy for finding information in patent documents for tracking technology. More specifically, the paper presents the characteristics of the main bases of existing patents; evaluation of the use of natural language and controlled, the use of truncation in the keywords, the location of selected terms and the scope of protection of the patent document. The basic patent was selected by the Derwent Innovation Index reindex the title and abstract of the patent in addition to allowing the download of documents for use in data mining software. As a focus of the search strategy was defined by the importance of malaria diagnosis of the disease worldwide and diagnostic segment as an accurate diagnosis influences the most appropriate treatment and can achieve reductions in costs of health expenditures worldwide. The search strategy was developed by crossing concepts with the diagnosis of malaria associated with the international patent classification within the range 2005 to 2009. The documents were classified into two levels: first as to the relevance to malaria and second on the scope of protection. The results show that the search terms titles only limits the return of results, since most of the concepts found in the summary, the use of natural language and controlled in the same search strategy is crucial to get return more accurate information, the truncation is important in terms search strategy, but you need knowledge of the combinations of terms that are not retrieved irrelevant information. In conclusion we can say that there is no search strategy to produce 100% of the retrieved documents as relevant, with regard to the patent search. The goal of any search strategy would be revoked and a high precision, ie the recovery of virtually all relevant documents. However, recall and precision tend to correlate inversely, ie, a higher precision leads to lower recall and vice versa, which means that the patent researcher has to find the right balance between these poles according to the type chosen search.

Dissertation (PhD (For))--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecast the Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South African context in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results are used to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future. To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, the historical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in South Africa. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determined through a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflected in Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3 gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world, including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. These techniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technology forecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches to financial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundest method of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. This includes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations. The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a useful method, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering value chain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review of forecasting methodologies. The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in the South African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of a Delphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on future developments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 Forest Engineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood, based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the future cost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery. Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry should prepare itself for the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doelwit van die studie is om 'n nuwe metode te ontwikkel waarmee 'n vooruitskatting van die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting gemaak kan word. Die metode word dan in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks toegepas om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die Suid-Afrikaanse resultate word voorts gebruik om 'n nasionale Bosingenieurswese strategie voor te stel vir die bedryf. Dit is nodig om die verlede te verstaan, voor die toekoms vooruitgeskat kan word. Om dié rede is die historiese ontwikkeling van bosingenieurswese bespreek, in beide 'n internasionale, sowel as 'n Suid Afrikaanse konteks. Die huidige status quo van Bosingenieurswese in Suid Afrika is vasgestel deur 'n nasionale opname waarby plantasies van groter as 200 ha ingesluit is. Die resultate van die opname word weergegee in Hoofstuk 2. As gevolg van die belangrikheid van beide globalisering en tegnologie, is 'n literatuur studie ingesluit in Hoofstuk 3 oor die relevansie van tegnologie in die besigheidswêreld van vandag, asook en 'n bespreking van verskeie vooruitskattingstegnieke wat in die studie gebruik kan word. Hierdie vooruitskattinge is 'n kombinasie van tradisionele vooruitskattings tegnieke, tegnologie vooruitskattingstegnieke en tegnieke wat gebruik word vir strategiese beplanning. Verskeie benaderinge tot finansiële analise is ook bespreek. Dit sluit tradisionele masjienkoste berekening in. Die rede hiervoor is om vas te stel watter metode die mees geskikte sou wees om verskeie Bosingenieurswese sisteme met mekaar te vergelyk. Die kern van die studie lê in die kombinasie van hierdie metodes om 'n bruikbare metode te ontwerp om die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting vooruit te skat. Hierdie ontwerp word in Hoofstuk 4 bespreek. Die metode word in Hoofstuk 5 beproef, deur die toepassing daarvan op die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf. Internasionale bosingenieurswese tendense is vasgestel deur middel van 'n Delphi studie. Hierdie vooruitskatting maak gebruik van 'n paneel van kundiges wat hulle siening oor die toekoms uitspreek deur verskeie rondtes van vrae wat aan hulle gestel word. Die studie evalueer hierna 14 Bosingenieurswese sisteme vir denne saaghout, denne pulphout en Eucalyptus pulphout, gebaseer op 'n scenario-analise van die toekoms. Die scenario matriks is gefundeer op die toekomstige koste van arbeid teenoor die toekomstige koste van masjinerie. As 'n finale stap word voorgestel hoe die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf kan voorberei om die toekoms tegemoet te gaan.

隨著台灣產業投入於技術的研發資源增加，近幾年台灣於美國專利商標局（USPTO）獲得之專利數也呈正比例上升；然而投入研發資源之「量」的增加以及獲得的專利數上升，並不代表研發成果「質」的等比例提升。這一點可從台灣企業及政府研發單位所獲得的專利，其國際專利引證率遠低於平均值，可見一般。 究其原因，一部分的問題在於台灣的企業（及政府研發單位）於最開始各相關資訊的搜集上不夠完全以及沒有一套良好的開發評估程序供其依循，這使得研發方向及標的的確立上有所偏差，而導致研發結果與商業需求有落差。 基於上述背景及動機之下，本研究的重點在於確立一套資訊收集及分析評估流程，以幫助台灣的企業（及政府研發單位）有效降低研發成本、提升研發方向的正確性，更進一步做為其決定研發策略的參考依據。 本研究之目的，即在於以產業分析、技術分析、專利地圖分析三個具邏輯順序性的外部分析為主軸，並結合組織本身核心技術、網絡關係等與組織相關之分析，來對組織的未來研發標的作一評估及策略建議。 本研究最後得到了以下的發現： 1. 市場□技術□專利之研發評估程序具有分析邏輯性。 2. 「市場需求研究」所找到的產品「需求功效」，可推導出達成功效可能的技術，並可藉此確立出專利分析時需要的「技術項目」。 3. 「市場需求」研究所找到的產品「需求功效」，可推導出達成「功效」所需要的「技術項目」，再以此去進行專利地圖的「技術/功效」二維關聯矩陣分析時，技術軸面項目與功效軸面項目兩者因具有因果性，故其相交關聯性極易判斷，也很容易明確定義出哪一個技術/功效相交關聯洞是有意義的、是可實際進行研發的。 4. 以產業市場□技術□專利三程序所完成的的「技術/功效」二維關聯矩陣圖，雖可容易的定義出哪一個技術/功效相交關聯洞是有意義的、是可實際進行研發的，但「哪一個可實際進行研發的技術/功效相交關聯洞具有較高關鍵性、重要性及有較高開發價值？」仍需藉由對技術及產業價值鍊熟悉的專家意見才可做出判斷。 5. 此方式組成的技術/功效二維關聯矩陣不但可看到目前已知的技術/功效相關聯部份（如本研究中的主要關鍵技術與主要關鍵功效相交處）專利佈局狀況，也可看出在未來的技術/功效相聯部份（如本研究中的主要輔助關鍵技術與輔助關鍵功效相交處）專利可能發展方向。 6. 產業市場分析、技術分析、專利地圖分析等三個組織外部分析須再配合組織原有的核心技術與網絡關係的評估，才可正確制定出組織未來研發的路徑及作為。 / Along with the enterprise and government investment increasing to the technical research ＆ development（R＆D） resources, Taiwan obtains the US patent number also to present the proportional rise in recent years; however, the investment of research ＆ development resources and the granted patent number are not proportional to the quality of research ＆ development achievement. This can be proved by the lower patent citation rate of Taiwan enterprises and the government research ＆ development institutes than the international mean value. Investigates its reasons, part of questions is that most of the enterprises (and government research ＆ development institutes) do not collect enough market information and do not have a set of good research ＆ development assessment procedure while the beginning of R＆D project in Taiwan. This causes that the research and development direction and target has a deviation, and causes that the research and development result and the commercial demand have the dropping variance. Based on the above background and the motive, this research key point lies in establish a flow of information collections and the analysis appraisal. It also helps Taiwan’s enterprises and government’s R＆D institutes effectively reduce the research and development cost, and promote research and development direction accuracy, further help for making the decision of research and development strategies. The goal of this research, namely lies in take the industrial analysis, the technical forecast, the patent map study three logic order exterior analysis as a main axle, and combine itself core technology and the network relations of organization to suggest organization's future target of research ＆ development. By this research, we discover 1. The R＆D appraisals procedure of market-technology-patent has analysis logic. 2. The marketing research finds the demands of consumers, and the demands of consumers may infer to the functions of products, and the functions of products may infer to the possible technology sources. 3. The possible technology sources may form the technical items of patent analysis matrix, and the functions of products may form the functional items of patent analysis matrix. 4. The two-dimensional technical/functional patent matrix completed by the market-technology-patent three procedures can easily define which technical/functional intersectional connection hole can be affiliated; however, to judge which technical/functional intersectional connection hole is more important still needs the advice of experts familiar to the technology and the industrial value chain. 5. The three organization exterior analyses of market analysis, technical analysis and patent map study have to coordinate the organization original core technology and the network relations appraisal.

The lack of system capability, budget, and schedule robustness against technology performance and development uncertainties has led to major setbacks in recent acquisition programs. This lack of robustness stems from the fact that immature technologies have uncertainties in their expected performance and development times and costs that translate to variations in system effectiveness and program development budget and schedule requirements. As such, the objective of this thesis is to formulate an assessment process that better informs acquisition decision-makers of program requirements robustness against such uncertainties. To meet the stated research objective, a conceptual methodology for assessing acquisition requirements robustness against technology performance and development uncertainties was formulated. This general approach provides a structured process for integrating probabilistic and quantitative forecasting, multi-criteria decision-making, and decision-support techniques to generate the statistical data needed to quantitatively predict requirements robustness. The results of the robustness assessment indicates to the decision-makers whether or not the technology or set of technologies being developed for the program will result in system capabilities and program budget and schedule that meet decision-maker requirements and preferences. This results in a more informed and justifiable selection of program technologies during initial program definition as well as formulation of program development and risk management strategies.

CAPES / Um dos aspectos fundamentais da inteligência natural é sua aptidão no processamento de informações temporais. O grande desafio proposto é o de desenvolver sistemas inteligentes que mapeiem essa aptidão do comportamento humano. Neste contexto, aportam as Máquinas de Estado Líquido (LSMs), uma arquitetura neural pulsada (meio líquido) que projeta os dados de entrada em um espaço dinâmico de alta dimensão e, por conseguinte, realiza a análise do conjunto de dados de entrada através de uma rede neural clássica (unidade de leitura). Desta maneira, esta tese apresenta uma solução inovadora para a previsão de séries temporais contínuas através das LSMs com mecanismo de reinicialização e entradas analógicas, contemplando a área da demanda de energia elétrica. A metodologia desenvolvida foi aplicada no horizonte de previsão a curto prazo e a longo prazo. Os resultados obtidos são promissores, considerando o alto erro estabelecido para parada do treinamento da unidade de leitura, o baixo número de iterações do treinamento da unidade de leitura e que nenhuma estratégia de ajustamento sazonal, ou pré-processamento, sob os dados de entrada foi realizado. Até o momento, percebe-se que as LSMs têm despontado como uma nova e promissora abordagem dentro do paradigma conexionista, emergente da ciência cognitiva. / Among of several aspects of the natural intelligence is its ability to process temporal information. One of major challenges to be addresses is how to efficiently develop intelligent systems that integrate the complexities of human behavior. In this context, appear the Liquid State Machines (LSMs), a pulsed neural architecture (liquid) that projects the input data in a high-dimensional dynamical space and therefore makes the analysis of input data all through a classical neural network (readout). Thus, this thesis presents an innovative solution for forecasting continuous time series through LSMs with reset mechanism and analog inputs, applied to the electric energy demand. The methodology was applied in the short-term and long-term forecasting of electrical energy demand. Results are promising, considering the high error to stop training the readout, the low number of iterations of training of the readout, and that no strategy of seasonal adjustment or preprocessing of input data was achieved. So far, it can be notice that the LSMs have been studied as a new and promising approach in the Artificial Neural Networks paradigm, emergent from cognitive science.

O desenvolvimento de projetos tecnológicos em uma empresa, utilizando a inovação aberta, é, por definição, uma atividade complexa. Atender às necessidades dos clientes, desenvolver projetos em parcerias, reduzir riscos e custos do projeto, utilizar escritórios virtuais e inserir novas tecnologias são algumas características da inovação aberta, que a tornam complexa. O desenvolvimento de projetos com estas características exige uma metodologia mais aprimorada. As metodologias tradicionais de gestão de projetos não suportam o gerenciamento de projetos complexos, sendo necessário utilizar metodologias e técnicas específicas para sua gestão. Torna-se importante para a empresa saber qual a metodologia de projeto utilizar e qual a estratégia de inovação (aberta ou fechada) utilizar no desenvolvimento de seus projetos. O objetivo deste trabalho é a elaboração de uma metodologia para a seleção de modos de gestão de projetos e inovação, em função das necessidades do cliente, dos requisitos e especificação do projeto, e da capacidade da empresa em desenvolver o projeto. Os dados utilizados na pesquisa são secundários, obtidos por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica. A metodologia utilizada para este trabalho foi a análise de conteúdo, aplicada sobre as técnicas e os métodos de elaboração e análise de cenários. O desenvolvimento da análise de cenários, utilizando técnicas e métodos propostos na revisão bibliográfica, teve como produto a correlação entre as necessidades do cliente, gestão de projetos (complexos e tradicionais) e inovação (aberta e fechada). O resultado final desta análise foi um quadro-resumo, indicando a metodologia de seleção das estratégias de inovação e gestão de projetos. A verificação da consistência da metodologia de seleção foi realizada por meio da comparação com projetos reais, desenvolvidos em empresa do ramo agrícola. / The development of the technological projects into a company, using open innovation, by definition, is a complex task. Attend the customer needs, develop project using partners, reduce risk and cost of the project, using virtual offices and insert new technologies, are some characteristics of open innovation, which make it complex. The development of the projects with those characteristics require an enhanced methodology. The traditional methodologies of project management not support the complex project management, being necessary to use methodologies and specific technics for its management It became important for the company know what kind of project methodology to use and what innovation strategy (open or closed) to use at the development of their projects. The objective of this dissertation is the elaboration of the one methodology to select modes of project management and innovation, in function of customer needs, project specification and requirements, and the capacity of the company to development the project. The data used on the research are secondary, obtained by means of bibliographic research. The methodology used on this dissertation was content analysis, applied on methods and techniques of analysis and scenarios building. The development of scenarios analysis, using methods and techniques proposal at the bibliographic research, had as product the correlation between customer needs, project management (complex and traditional) and innovation (closed and open). The result of this analysis it was a summary frame, indicating the methodology to select innovation strategy and project management. The verification of the consistency of the methodology to select was realized by means of comparison of real projects, developed into an agricultural company.

O desenvolvimento de projetos tecnológicos em uma empresa, utilizando a inovação aberta, é, por definição, uma atividade complexa. Atender às necessidades dos clientes, desenvolver projetos em parcerias, reduzir riscos e custos do projeto, utilizar escritórios virtuais e inserir novas tecnologias são algumas características da inovação aberta, que a tornam complexa. O desenvolvimento de projetos com estas características exige uma metodologia mais aprimorada. As metodologias tradicionais de gestão de projetos não suportam o gerenciamento de projetos complexos, sendo necessário utilizar metodologias e técnicas específicas para sua gestão. Torna-se importante para a empresa saber qual a metodologia de projeto utilizar e qual a estratégia de inovação (aberta ou fechada) utilizar no desenvolvimento de seus projetos. O objetivo deste trabalho é a elaboração de uma metodologia para a seleção de modos de gestão de projetos e inovação, em função das necessidades do cliente, dos requisitos e especificação do projeto, e da capacidade da empresa em desenvolver o projeto. Os dados utilizados na pesquisa são secundários, obtidos por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica. A metodologia utilizada para este trabalho foi a análise de conteúdo, aplicada sobre as técnicas e os métodos de elaboração e análise de cenários. O desenvolvimento da análise de cenários, utilizando técnicas e métodos propostos na revisão bibliográfica, teve como produto a correlação entre as necessidades do cliente, gestão de projetos (complexos e tradicionais) e inovação (aberta e fechada). O resultado final desta análise foi um quadro-resumo, indicando a metodologia de seleção das estratégias de inovação e gestão de projetos. A verificação da consistência da metodologia de seleção foi realizada por meio da comparação com projetos reais, desenvolvidos em empresa do ramo agrícola. / The development of the technological projects into a company, using open innovation, by definition, is a complex task. Attend the customer needs, develop project using partners, reduce risk and cost of the project, using virtual offices and insert new technologies, are some characteristics of open innovation, which make it complex. The development of the projects with those characteristics require an enhanced methodology. The traditional methodologies of project management not support the complex project management, being necessary to use methodologies and specific technics for its management It became important for the company know what kind of project methodology to use and what innovation strategy (open or closed) to use at the development of their projects. The objective of this dissertation is the elaboration of the one methodology to select modes of project management and innovation, in function of customer needs, project specification and requirements, and the capacity of the company to development the project. The data used on the research are secondary, obtained by means of bibliographic research. The methodology used on this dissertation was content analysis, applied on methods and techniques of analysis and scenarios building. The development of scenarios analysis, using methods and techniques proposal at the bibliographic research, had as product the correlation between customer needs, project management (complex and traditional) and innovation (closed and open). The result of this analysis it was a summary frame, indicating the methodology to select innovation strategy and project management. The verification of the consistency of the methodology to select was realized by means of comparison of real projects, developed into an agricultural company.