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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
161

Previsão do mercado acionário por meio de redes neurais mlp e redes neurais kohonen em período de crise econômica / Stock market forecast through ann MLP and Kohonen ann at time of economic crisis

Miranda, André Pacheco 28 August 2013 (has links)
Fluctuations in the stock market through economic crises, risks of deflation and liquidity traps are critical in the analysis of risk, which cause discrepancies in the execution of a particular scope in the equities market. The crisis in subprime insolvency in 2007/2008 which had a major impact on financial markets founded further discussions in relation to risk control in the decision making of investors. In the stock market risk analysis seeks to assist the investor in making decisions, for it makes use of statistical methods and tools to try to predict market movements. Based on these and previous statements in order to assist investors in making decisions through an economic crisis, this is an exploratory study aimed to develop and train two neural networks with differentiated learning without the problem of "black box" methods to compare which of the two has better forecast in periods of economic crisis. As input variables for the neural networks used the return of the volume of weekly Ibovespa in the period 12/08/2002 to 30/05/2011 and a setup developed from the Elliott Wave Theory. That is, these two neural networks were developed, trained and validated to predict market movements when it presents oscillations from an economic crisis. As mentioned earlier to validate the study compared the power of explanation of two methods before a point of probable attack. We conclude, therefore, that the analogy made for the creation of the theory of Elliott wave theory of psychological behavior of the masses and the Fibonacci sequence proved unable to provide for oscillations of the market in a series corresponding to an economic crisis. It was concluded, too, that neural networks with unsupervised learning using temporal variables as input variables has a higher prediction in training, but lower than most crucial step in the validation of systems. / As oscilações no mercado acionário por meio de crises econômicas, riscos de deflação e armadilhas de liquidez são pontos críticos na análise de risco, que ocasionam discrepâncias na execução de um determinado escopo no mercado de renda variável. A crise da inadimplência do subprime em 2007/2008 que obteve uma das maiores repercussões nos mercados financeiros fundou novas discussões em relação ao controle de risco na tomada de decisão do investidor. No mercado acionário, a análise de risco busca auxiliar o investidor na tomada de decisões, para isso utiliza-se de ferramentas e métodos estatísticos para tentar predizer os movimentos do mercado. Com base nestas afirmações anteriores e com o intuito de auxiliar o investidor na tomada de decisão mediante a uma crise econômica, este trabalho, do tipo exploratório, objetivou-se desenvolver e treinar duas redes neurais com aprendizados diferenciados sem o problema da caixa preta dos métodos a fim de comparar quais das duas tem melhor previsão em períodos de crises econômicas. Como variáveis de entrada para as redes neurais utilizou-se o retorno do volume semanais do Ibovespa no período de 12/08/2002 até 30/05/2011 e um setup desenvolvido a partir da Teoria das Ondas de Elliott. Ou seja, estas duas redes neurais foram desenvolvidas, treinadas e validadas para antever os movimentos do mercado quando este apresentar oscilações provenientes de uma crise econômica. Como mencionado anteriormente para validar o estudo, foi comparado o poder de explicação dos dois métodos, antes de um ponto de uma provável crise. Conclui-se, portanto, que a analogia feita para a criação da teoria das ondas de Elliott entre a teoria do comportamento psicológico das massas e a seqüência de Fibonacci se mostrou incapaz de prever oscilações do mercado em uma série correspondente a uma crise econômica. Conclui-se, também, que redes neurais com aprendizados não supervisionados que utilizam variáveis temporais como variáveis de entrada tem a previsão superior no treinamento, mas inferiores na etapa mais determinante a validação das redes.
162

Creative Disability Classification Systems : The case of Greece, 1990-2015

Pavli, Antonia January 2017 (has links)
Disability classification systems belong to the core of states’ social/disability policies through which persons with disabilities are classified as eligible or ineligible for having access to disability allowances. The study of disability classification systems has stimulated the interest of several scholars from the broader area of disability studies. Either by conducting comparative studies between different states and describing the similarities and differences of these systems around the world or by conducting studies focusing on the politics and semantics in the development of disability classification systems in specific states, all studies have shown a pluralism in the systems for assessing and certifying disability. In Greece, the development of disability classification systems for social welfare reasons emerged as a controversy that lasted for almost twenty years. One factor that strengthened the controversy was the outbreak of the economic crisis late in 2009 followed by the announcement by the governmental authorities of the enactment of a new system for assessing and certifying disability as part of the austeritydriven policies that the Greek state would enact for facing the consequences of the economic crisis. Drawing on an interdisciplinary approach, the overall aim of this study is to describe and analyze the enactment of disability classification systems in the context of Greek social policy from 1990 to 2015. For the collection of empirical material, a qualitative research method was employed, consisting of interviews, written material, and newspaper articles. The main findings of this thesis are: I) the involvement of the political parties in the development of the systems for certifying and assessing disability; II) the involvement of the disability movement in policymaking; III) the “creative” use of statistics by governmental authorities for the enactment of disability/social policies; IV) how the concept of “disability fraud” has been constructed as a “threat” to the society; and V) the vulnerability of disability classification systems in times of austerity.
163

A space for genocide: local authorities, local population and local histories in Gishamvu and Kibayi (Rwanda)

Mulinda, Charles Kabwete January 2010 (has links)
Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / This research attempts to answer the following questions: How and why genocide became possible in Gishamvu and Kibayi? In other words, what was the nature of power at different epochs and how was it exercised? How did forms of political competition evolve? In relation to these forms of competition, what forms of violence occurred acrosshistory and how did they manifest themselves at local level up to 1994? And what was the place of identity politics? Then, what were economic and social conditions since colonial times up to 1994 and how were these conditions instrumentalized in the construction of the ideology of genocide? Finally, how did the Tutsi genocide unfold in Gishamvu and Kibayi? / South Africa
164

Evolution des facteurs psychosociaux au travail et de la santé mentale en période de crise économique dans les populations au travail en France et en Europe / Changes in psychosocial work factors and mental health in times of economic crisis among the working population in France and in Europe

Malard, Lucile 28 September 2015 (has links)
Depuis 2008, les pays développés ont dû faire face à une sévère crise économique qui a pu impacter les conditions psychosociales de travail et la santé mentale. L’objectif de la thèse était d’évaluer l’évolution des facteurs psychosociaux au travail et de la santé mentale dans les populations au travail en Europe et en France durant la crise économique de 2008, et d’étudier si ces évolutions étaient différentes selon des sous-groupes de population.Les données d’enquêtes européennes transversales périodiques dans 30 pays d’Europe en 2005 et 2010 (73496 salariés) et d’une enquête nationale prospective française en 2006 et 2010 (5600 travailleurs) ont été mobilisées.Les facteurs psychosociaux au travail avaient une évolution mitigée parmi les salariés européens entre 2005 et 2010, avec des dégradations et des améliorations, et se dégradaient en France entre 2006 et 2010, surtout pour les femmes. Les facteurs se dégradaient plus fortement pour les pays les plus touchés par la crise, les plus jeunes, les professions les moins qualifiées et le secteur public. Aucune évolution des pathologies mentales n’a été observée dans la population au travail en France. Néanmoins, des comportements et indicateurs de santé mentale (consommation d’alcool, tabagisme, problèmes de sommeil, santé perçue) ont montré une dégradation entre 2006 et 2010, en particulier chez les plus jeunes et les travailleurs en contrat permanent.Des politiques de prévention pourraient être utiles afin de limiter la dégradation des conditions psychosociales de travail et de la santé mentale en mettant l’accent sur des sous-groupes de population particulièrement exposés à cette dégradation. / Since 2008, the developed countries have had to face a severe economic crisis which could have affected psychosocial working conditions and mental health. The aim of this thesis was to assess the changes in psychosocial work factors and in mental health in the working populations in Europe and in France in times of the 2008 economic crisis, and to study whether these changes were different according to various subgroups of population.Data from European periodical cross-sectional surveys in 30 European countries in 2005 and 2010 (73496 employees) and a national prospective French survey in 2006 and 2010 (5600 workers) were used.Psychosocial work factors displayed mixed changes among European employees between 2005 and 2010, with both deteriorations and improvements, and worsened in France between 2006 and 2010, especially among women. Workers in the countries highly hit by the crisis, younger workers, low-skilled workers and public sector workers were more likely to be affected by these negative changes. No change in mental disorders was found in the French working population. Nevertheless, behaviours and indicators of mental health (alcohol use, smoking, sleep problems and self-reported health) worsened between 2006 and 2010, in particular among younger workers and workers with permanent contract.Prevention policies could be useful to reduce the deterioration of psychosocial working conditions and mental health especially among some subgroups of population most affected by this deterioration.
165

Programy Evropskej Komisie na podporu malých a stredných podnikov / European Commission programmes for the support of small and medium enterprises

Vorčáková, Eva January 2008 (has links)
Small and medium enterprises are very important for the european economy from the view of their quantity, creation of jobs and the added value.In the first part of my thesis I'm introducing the definition of the small and medium enterprises according to European Commission, their importance, strenghts and weaknesses. Another important issue is also the business environment in the Czech republic, which is the main attribute of the development of SME. The second part is about the main types of SME support of European Commission, like the finance and non-finance help, direct help and structural funds. In the third part I will present the impact of the current economic crisis on SME and the steps of European Commission and Czech government which are being taken to help SME. At last, I am introducing succesfull medium company named VARI, a.s. and external and internal factors which help the company to be successful on the Czech market.
166

Príčiny a priebeh ekonomických kríz vo svetovej ekonomike, so zameraním na súčasnú finančnú krízu / The causes and the course of the economic crisis in the world economy, with focus on the present financial crisis

Murínová, Elena January 2009 (has links)
The diploma thesis is classified in chapters which are then classified in subheadings. The aim of the thesis was the analysis and the course of the financial crisis in the global economy while I focused on the present economic crisis. In the first chapter I analyse the causes, course and possible subsequent solutions while I focus on the currency, banking and the crisis at the asset market that preceded the genesis of the present economic crisis, I demonstrate their synthesis by the Big Depression 1929. The next chapter has practical application on the present crisis, the analysis of the securitisation as the trigger of it, I also evaluate the situation at the stock and real estate market before and after the crisis genesis and analyse the strategic factors that catalysed the formation of the market bubbles. The last chapter evaluates the steps that the US Government underwent to alleviate the crisis effects and post the measures that are of mayor importance to prevent the formation of the future crisis.
167

Dopady ekonomické krize na trh práce České republiky a Slovenska / The impacts of the economic crisis on the labor market of the Czech Republic and Slovakia

Hurtlová, Kateřina January 2014 (has links)
The aim of the thesis is to identify the specific impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on the labour market of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The theoretical part deals with the problems of unemployment and presents the basic theoretical approaches to the functioning of the labour market. The paper then presents the underlying causes, development and spread of the economic crisis and its impact on economic performance and labour markets with an emphasis on the development of the unemployment rate in the European Union and Central European countries. The output is the analysis of effects on the labour market of the Czech Republic and Slovakia during the crisis, their evaluation and comparison.
168

Social Determinants of Health and Economy: the Global Financial Crisis 2007/08 and its impact on well-being of Europeans / Sociální determinanty zdraví a ekonomiky: Globální finanční krize 2007/08 a její dopad na blahobyt Evropanů

Scheier, Samuel January 2014 (has links)
Objective Objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the recent economic crisis of 2007/2008 on the subjective well-being and health status in thirteen European countries. Methods The European Social Survey (ESS) database was searched for individual health and wellbeing indicators and the database of the European Commission Eurostat for economic indicators. Data representing social determinants like education, housing and employment status and others before, during and after the crisis were retrieved. Eurostat data were used to analyse economic indicators and health outcomes on country level. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the changes in the different parameters over time. Regression analysis was performed to demonstrate relations between subjective well-being and different social determinants. Results Between 2006 and 2012 all countries experienced changes in their populations' subjective well-being. From 2006 to 2010 (crisis) the number of people with good or very good subjective well-being increased in France, Ireland, Belgium and Portugal by 0.6%, 1.0%, 1.2% and 6.5%, respectively. In Denmark and Spain this number remained basically stable. In Sweden, the United Kingdom, Finland and Germany the percentage of the population with good or very good subjective well-being decreased by 1.1%, 2.7%, 1.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Regression analysis demonstrated a significant relation between good and very good subjective well-being and level of education, main activity during the last 7 days, satisfaction with life, satisfaction with household income, main source of household income, gender and age. This relation differed for various factors and countries. In none of the countries satisfaction with national health services and satisfaction with current state of economy within the country was found significantly related to subjective well-being. The main amendable determinant correlating with a higher degree of subjective well-being is good education. The correlation between education and subjective well-being got stronger after the crisis than before or during the crisis. Conclusion Economic development does not have a uniform impact on subjective well-being. Education is a major amendable determinant influencing individual well-being. We could not find evidence for any significant impact of the organization of the healthcare services or social system on the subjective well-being.
169

Analýza současného stavu financování neziskového sektoru v ČR / Analysis of financing of the non-profit sector in the Czech Republic

Fialová, Karolína January 2012 (has links)
This thesis focuses the financing of non-governmental organizations. The main part is devoted to financial sources which can use Czech non-profit organizations (NGOs). Fundraising is how NGOs get financial and non-financial support. The practical part consists of an analysis of financial sources and survey among NGOs. The aim is to analyze selected changes that influence non-profit organizations and their fundraising activities. An economic crisis had a significant impact on non-profit organizations. It has slightly changed the structure of financial resources. Although there was an increase in own revenues, government grants are still the dominant source. Importance of European funds also grows. The new Civil Code which came into force on 1 January, 2014 can strengthen individual and corporate donations.
170

Souvislosti hospodářské krize a vývoje rozpočtu EU v období let 2007 až 2012 / The context of the economic crisis and the EU budget development during the period 2007–2012

Straková, Eliška January 2012 (has links)
The aim of this master thesis is to analyze the relationship between the economic crisis and the financial perspective valid for the period 2007--2013. The first theoretical chapter presents the origin of economic crisis in the USA and its extension to Europe. Then the EU budget is described. The second chapter analyzes the influence of the economic crisis on the expenditure and the revenue side of the EU budget and on the EU budget reform. The third chapter summarizes the results. This part of the thesis shows also the influence of the economic crises on the new budget perspective after 2013.

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