Yes / Over last few decades, there has been a growing interest among researchers in understanding the link between trade liberalization and regional disparities within the context of an individual country. In this study, we develop the first ever single-country multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Indian economy to investigate this linkage. Overall our results suggest that, in the short run, trade liberalization has a beneficial impact on the rich and fast-growing middle-income states and a marginal or negative impact on the poor states.

Utilizando o modelo gravitacional, estimado através da Pseudo Máxima Verossimilhança de Poisson com a inclusão de efeitos fixos, esta tese de doutorado fornece evidências de que a OMC teve um profundo impacto sobre o comércio internacional. Entretanto, esse impacto ocorreu de forma assimétrica entre os setores, países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros. Considerando as importações agregadas, os países em desenvolvimento foram os mais favorecidos pela atuação da OMC, porém com dados desagregados de produtos primários, têxteis e industrializados, os países desenvolvidos foram os que mais se beneficiaram do aumento do comércio mundial promovido pela OMC. Muito embora as nações desenvolvidas também tiveram seus fluxos de comércio ampliados pela OMC nos setores têxtil e industrial, o maior crescimento ocorreu no setor primário. Além disso, esses países não discriminaram os não membros da instituição. Diferentemente, a abertura comercial dos países em desenvolvimento foi discriminatória e o crescimento do comércio foi observado apenas em produtos primários e industriais, mas em menor magnitude que as nações desenvolvidas. Alternativamente, utilizando o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável do GTAP, foram avaliados os impactos de uma hipotética conclusão da Rodada de Doha sobre os países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros da OMC. Os resultados sugerem que, ao incorporar a redução de barreiras não tarifárias nas reformas, além das tarifas de importação e subsídios à exportação, os ganhos, em termos de PIB e bem-estar, ampliam-se para os seus membros, sugerindo que seus efeitos são claramente dominantes em relação às tarifas de importação e aos subsídios à exportação. Considerando o cenário de maior liberalização comercial, os países desenvolvidos teriam um crescimento de bem-estar de aproximadamente US$ 572 bilhões, enquanto os em desenvolvimento aumentariam US$ 441 bilhões. O custo de não ser membro da OMC, em termos de bem-estar, pode chegar até US$ 34 bilhões. / Using the gravitational model, estimated through the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood of Poisson with the inclusion of fixed effects, this doctoral thesis provides evidence that the WTO had a profound impact on international trade. However, this impact occurred asymmetrically between the developed and developing countries, members and non-members. Considering aggregate imports, developing countries were the ones most benefited by the WTO, but with disaggregated data on primary, textile and industrialized products, developed countries benefited most from the increase in world trade promoted by the WTO. Although developed nations also had their trade flows expanded by the WTO in the textile and industrial sectors, the largest growth occurred in the primary sector. In addition, these countries did not discriminate against non-members of the institution. In contrast, trade liberalization in developing countries was discriminatory and trade growth was observed only in primary and industrial products, but to a lesser extent than developed nations. Also, using the GTAP General Computable Equilibrium Model, the impacts of a hypothetical conclusion of the Doha Round on the developed and developing countries, members and non-members of the WTO, were evaluated. The results suggest that, by incorporating the reduction of non-tariff barriers in the reforms, in addition to import tariffs and export subsidies, gains in terms of GDP and welfare increase for its members, suggesting that its effects Are clearly dominant in relation to import tariffs and export subsidies. Considering the scenario of increased trade liberalization, developed countries would have a welfare growth of approximately US$ 572 billion while developing countries would increase US$ 441 billion. The cost of not being a member of the WTO in terms of welfare can reach up to US$ 34 billion.

A União Européia e os Estados Unidos são os dois maiores importadores e exportadores mundiais de produtos agroindustriais. O Brasil é um dos mais dinâmicos fornecedores mundiais destes produtos. O país detém a terceira posição no ranking dos maiores exportadores mundiais e apresenta, desde 2002, o maior superávit comercial agroindustrial do mundo. A UE e os EUA poderiam importar ainda mais se não impusessem proteções de fronteira para seus produtos sensíveis. Picos tarifários, tarifas proibitivas, escaladas tarifárias, tarifas específicas, quotas tarifárias e salvaguardas especiais são os mecanismos de proteção analisados neste trabalho. Embora dirigidas para uma minoria de produtos, essas proteções são de grande relevância para o Brasil. As barreiras tarifárias foram analisadas sob três perspectivas: (i) das relações entre as barreiras e as políticas de apoio ao setor agrícola na UE e nos EUA; (ii) da inserção dos produtos brasileiros nesses mercados e (iii) da aplicação de um modelo de equilíbrio parcial para simulação dos efeitos sobre as importações diante de cenários de redução tarifária. O modelo de equilíbrio parcial baseia-se na elasticidade-preço cruzada da demanda por importação. Foram simuladas duas situações: reduções de 50% e de 100% nas tarifas. O modelo foi executado para uma seleção de produtos que fosse, ao mesmo tempo, sensíveis para UE e EUA, e de interesse do Brasil. Os seguintes setores foram analisados: açúcar e álcool, carne bovina, carne de frango, carne suína, suco de laranja, café torrado e solúvel, óleo de soja e fumo em folhas. Os resultados agregados mostram que as importações norte-americanas cresceriam 94% em valor (US$ 4,8 bilhões) e as européias 55% (€ 3,1 bilhões) para o cenário de 100% de redução tarifária. O modelo permite concluir que, caso as proteções de fronteira fossem efetivamente reduzidas, ambos os mercados demandariam volumes significativamente maiores de produtos que são exportados pelo Brasil. Conclui-se também que acordos de livre comércio como a Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA) e o Acordo UE-Mercosul, bem como as negociações multilaterais, se promoverem a liberalização dos mercados agrícolas, trarão ganhos inegáveis de comércio para o agronegócio brasileiro. / The European Union and the United States are the two largest world importers and exporters of agricultural products. Brazil is one of the most dynamic supplier of those commodities. Among the main agricultural exporters, Brazil is the third one and, since 2002, the country has had the largest agroindustrial trade balance surplus in the world. The EU and US would import even more if they were not allowed to impose border protection on their sensitive products. Tariff peaks, prohibitive tariffs, specific tariffs, tariff escalation, tariff quotas, and especial safeguards are the mechanisms analyzed by this work. Although these restrictions protect a small amount of products, their impact is huge on Brazil. The tariffs barriers were analyzed in three perspectives: (i) of the relations between the European and North-American policies to protect their agricultural sector and the barriers imposed; (ii) of the performance of the Brazilian agricultural exports in the previously mentioned foreign markets, and (iii) concerning different tariff reduction scenarios, of the utilization of a partial equilibrium model to quantify the effects on agricultural. The partial equilibrium model is based on price elasticities of import demand with respect to domestic prices. Two tariff reduction scenarios were simulated: 50% reduction and 100% reduction. The simulation model were run for a selection of products. Only products that could be considered not only sensitive for EU and US, but also relevant for Brazilian exports were selected. Sugar and ethanol, bovine meat, poultry meat, swine meat, orange juice, roasted coffee, instant coffee, soybean oil and unmanufactured tobacco were the sectors analyzed. The aggregated results show that the US imports would increase 94% (4,8 US billion) and EU imports 55% (3,1 € billion), in the case of 100% tariff reduction. The modeling results lead to the conclusion that, in the case of effective border protection reduction, both markets would demand higher quantity of products that are exported by Brazil. If agreements between the Free Trade Area of Americas and the EU-Mercosur, as well as the multilateral negotiations, end up promoting agricultural market liberalization, Brazilian agribusiness will profit enormously in terms of its trade.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-06-29T15:01:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Maurício Delago Morais_.pdf: 304259 bytes, checksum: 38cd9494d868913afc9b6a9dc40b252b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-29T15:01:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Maurício Delago Morais_.pdf: 304259 bytes, checksum: 38cd9494d868913afc9b6a9dc40b252b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-26 / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / O comércio entre os países do hemisfério Sul tem crescido de forma significativa nas últimas décadas e, em 2011, já representava mais da metade de suas trocas comerciais. Além do forte crescimento, ele tem se tornado cada vez mais intensivo em capital e trabalho qualificado em comparação ao comércio Sul-Norte. O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar os efeitos sobre comércio e bem-estar da formação de uma área de livre comércio entre todos os países da América do Sul (UNASUL) e entre o Brasil e o North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), caracterizando comércio Sul-Sul e Sul-Norte, respectivamente. Neste estudo são realizadas duas simulações por meio de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável. Os resultados mostraram que a UNASUL, apesar de gerar benefícios, expressos principalmente na forma de aumento de bem-estar e de exportações de bens de maior intensidade tecnológica para os países envolvidos, eles são limitados. Os ganhos mais expressivos para o Brasil ocorrem com a liberalização comercial Sul-Norte. / South-South trade has increased significantly in the last decades. In 2011, it accounted for more than half of total trade of the region. Besides the strong growth it is becoming more intensive in capital and skilled labor in comparison with South-North trade. The study analyses the effects on trade and welfare of the formation of a free trade area in South America (UNASUL) and between Brazil and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) using a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that despite UNASUL would generate gains for the countries that participate in this agreement, in terms of increased trade on high technology sectors and welfare, they are limited. The more significant gains for Brazil occur with the South-North trade liberalization.

<p>The increased use of biomass and recovered waste fuels in favor of fossil fuels for heat and power production is an important step towards a sustainable future. Combustion of waste fuels also offers several advantages over traditional landfilling, such as substantial volume reduction, detoxification of pathological wastes, and reduction of toxic leaches and greenhouse gas (methane) formation from landfills. However, combustion of recovered waste fuels emits more harmful trace elements than combustion of other fuels. These elements are distributed between bottom ash, fly ash and flue gas, depending on the elements partitioning and enrichment behavior. Volatilized harmful trace elements are mainly enriched in the submicron fly ash fraction. If emitted to the atmosphere, submicron particles can penetrate deep into the alveoli of the lungs, causing severe impacts on human health. Consequently, to reduce ash related problems and to control the emissions to the atmosphere, there is an increased need for understanding the physicochemical processes involved in ash transformation, including particle formation.</p><p>The objective of this thesis was to carefully and systematically study the fate of trace elements during combustion, i.e. the chemical form of the elements and the partitioning behavior, by means of chemical equilibrium model calculations, X-ray diffraction, microscopy techniques and various spectroscopy methods. The influence of some fuel additives was also analyzed. Primarily, the elements copper, chromium and arsenic were studied.</p><p>An initial review and evaluation of the content of thermodynamical data in commercial thermochemical databases used for chemical equilibrium model calculations showed that there was a significant difference in number of included phases and species between databases. Thermodynamical data also differed between databases, although in general less for condensed phases than for gaseous species. A state-of-the-art database for Cu, Cr and As was compiled and used for further chemical equilibrium model calculations. The fate of Cu, Cr and As was determined in combustion experiments on wood impregnated with copper, chromium and arsenic (CCA) in a bench scale reactor (15 kW). The results showed that global chemical equilibrium model calculations predicted the overall fate of Cu, Cr and As in bottom ash and ash particles quite well. However, compared to the experimental results the global model overpredicted the formation of refractory calcium arsenates, thus the arsenic volatilization was found to be higher then the predicted volatilization. In terms of chromium volatility, copper was found to be an important refractory element forming stable CuCrO₂(s) and CuCr₂O₄(s) that suppressed the formation of CrO₂(OH)₂(g). The retention and speciation of Cu, Cr and As in bottom ash was further determined from combustion experiments of CCA wood fuel particles in a single particle reactor. Local chemical equilibrium model calculations were performed to simulate the combustion stages of a burning CCA treated wood fuel particle: drying, devolatilization, char burning and post-combustion. The results from the work showed that a mix of global and local chemical equilibrium model calculations is needed to describe the reality and that the combustion stages are partially overlapping. The fate of harmful trace elements, including Cu, Cr and As, was finally studied in full scale (65 MW) combustion experiments. Particles from the raw flue gas emissions were sampled and analyzed. The comparison with chemical equilibrium model calculations showed that the model explained the results well, but due to lack of thermodynamic data for K₂ZnCl₄(s), the formation of this phase could not be predicted.</p>

The increased use of biomass and recovered waste fuels in favor of fossil fuels for heat and power production is an important step towards a sustainable future. Combustion of waste fuels also offers several advantages over traditional landfilling, such as substantial volume reduction, detoxification of pathological wastes, and reduction of toxic leaches and greenhouse gas (methane) formation from landfills. However, combustion of recovered waste fuels emits more harmful trace elements than combustion of other fuels. These elements are distributed between bottom ash, fly ash and flue gas, depending on the elements partitioning and enrichment behavior. Volatilized harmful trace elements are mainly enriched in the submicron fly ash fraction. If emitted to the atmosphere, submicron particles can penetrate deep into the alveoli of the lungs, causing severe impacts on human health. Consequently, to reduce ash related problems and to control the emissions to the atmosphere, there is an increased need for understanding the physicochemical processes involved in ash transformation, including particle formation. The objective of this thesis was to carefully and systematically study the fate of trace elements during combustion, i.e. the chemical form of the elements and the partitioning behavior, by means of chemical equilibrium model calculations, X-ray diffraction, microscopy techniques and various spectroscopy methods. The influence of some fuel additives was also analyzed. Primarily, the elements copper, chromium and arsenic were studied. An initial review and evaluation of the content of thermodynamical data in commercial thermochemical databases used for chemical equilibrium model calculations showed that there was a significant difference in number of included phases and species between databases. Thermodynamical data also differed between databases, although in general less for condensed phases than for gaseous species. A state-of-the-art database for Cu, Cr and As was compiled and used for further chemical equilibrium model calculations. The fate of Cu, Cr and As was determined in combustion experiments on wood impregnated with copper, chromium and arsenic (CCA) in a bench scale reactor (15 kW). The results showed that global chemical equilibrium model calculations predicted the overall fate of Cu, Cr and As in bottom ash and ash particles quite well. However, compared to the experimental results the global model overpredicted the formation of refractory calcium arsenates, thus the arsenic volatilization was found to be higher then the predicted volatilization. In terms of chromium volatility, copper was found to be an important refractory element forming stable CuCrO2(s) and CuCr2O4(s) that suppressed the formation of CrO2(OH)2(g). The retention and speciation of Cu, Cr and As in bottom ash was further determined from combustion experiments of CCA wood fuel particles in a single particle reactor. Local chemical equilibrium model calculations were performed to simulate the combustion stages of a burning CCA treated wood fuel particle: drying, devolatilization, char burning and post-combustion. The results from the work showed that a mix of global and local chemical equilibrium model calculations is needed to describe the reality and that the combustion stages are partially overlapping. The fate of harmful trace elements, including Cu, Cr and As, was finally studied in full scale (65 MW) combustion experiments. Particles from the raw flue gas emissions were sampled and analyzed. The comparison with chemical equilibrium model calculations showed that the model explained the results well, but due to lack of thermodynamic data for K2ZnCl4(s), the formation of this phase could not be predicted.

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers, which are all related to important environmental and natural resource issues from a developing country perspective. Paper [I] concerns climate policy and addresses the potential welfare gains of introducing a technology transfer from the North (richer countries) to the South (poorer countries). The results largely depend on the environmental policy in the pre- transfer resource allocation and, in particular, whether or not the South abates its own emissions. Although the technology transfer is desirable from a “global social planners” point of view, it is shown that the incentives to use the transfer might be weak from the perspective of the North; at least if the South takes its own measures to reduce emissions. However, in a situation where the North is committed to emission reductions according to the Kyoto protocol, it is shown that there will clearly be incentives for the North to use the technology transfer in order to reach the Kyoto targets in a more cost efficient way. In paper [II], the likely effects of an environmental fiscal reform in Namibia are examined by means of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the introduction of an environmental fiscal reform, where taxes on natural and environmental resources (fish rents, energy and water) are recycled to the economy in different ways might give rise to benefits in terms of GDP, employment and income distribution, in addition to the environmental impacts. While subsidizing unskilled labour would give the most favourable outcome in terms of real GDP and employment impacts, a decrease in food taxes might be a more interesting option if GDP, employment, income distribution and environmental impacts are considered in combination. In paper [III], the value of irrigation water used for different crop alternatives in the Hardap region in Southern Namibia is estimated. The study finds that all crop alternatives that farmers in the region currently choose among, will remain financially viable after the planned increases in user charges. However, if full cost recovery is to be achieved in the future, substantial changes in the agricultural production will most likely be necessary. The method is also extended in order to study the potential effects on total water demand if further increases in user charges are implemented. Paper [IV] studies the likely effects of exogenous international food and oil price shocks on the Namibian economy. This is particularly interesting in a country where the domestic consumption of corn and petroleum products is mainly imported, and where water scarcity represents one of the main constraints to agricultural expansion. The results show that the Namibian economy will be negatively affected from the food and oil price increases, and water scarcity will further limit the ability of the economy to adapt to international oil and food price increases.

Univ., Diss.--Bonn, 2002.

Utilizando o modelo gravitacional, estimado através da Pseudo Máxima Verossimilhança de Poisson com a inclusão de efeitos fixos, esta tese de doutorado fornece evidências de que a OMC teve um profundo impacto sobre o comércio internacional. Entretanto, esse impacto ocorreu de forma assimétrica entre os setores, países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros. Considerando as importações agregadas, os países em desenvolvimento foram os mais favorecidos pela atuação da OMC, porém com dados desagregados de produtos primários, têxteis e industrializados, os países desenvolvidos foram os que mais se beneficiaram do aumento do comércio mundial promovido pela OMC. Muito embora as nações desenvolvidas também tiveram seus fluxos de comércio ampliados pela OMC nos setores têxtil e industrial, o maior crescimento ocorreu no setor primário. Além disso, esses países não discriminaram os não membros da instituição. Diferentemente, a abertura comercial dos países em desenvolvimento foi discriminatória e o crescimento do comércio foi observado apenas em produtos primários e industriais, mas em menor magnitude que as nações desenvolvidas. Alternativamente, utilizando o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável do GTAP, foram avaliados os impactos de uma hipotética conclusão da Rodada de Doha sobre os países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros da OMC. Os resultados sugerem que, ao incorporar a redução de barreiras não tarifárias nas reformas, além das tarifas de importação e subsídios à exportação, os ganhos, em termos de PIB e bem-estar, ampliam-se para os seus membros, sugerindo que seus efeitos são claramente dominantes em relação às tarifas de importação e aos subsídios à exportação. Considerando o cenário de maior liberalização comercial, os países desenvolvidos teriam um crescimento de bem-estar de aproximadamente US$ 572 bilhões, enquanto os em desenvolvimento aumentariam US$ 441 bilhões. O custo de não ser membro da OMC, em termos de bem-estar, pode chegar até US$ 34 bilhões. / Using the gravitational model, estimated through the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood of Poisson with the inclusion of fixed effects, this doctoral thesis provides evidence that the WTO had a profound impact on international trade. However, this impact occurred asymmetrically between the developed and developing countries, members and non-members. Considering aggregate imports, developing countries were the ones most benefited by the WTO, but with disaggregated data on primary, textile and industrialized products, developed countries benefited most from the increase in world trade promoted by the WTO. Although developed nations also had their trade flows expanded by the WTO in the textile and industrial sectors, the largest growth occurred in the primary sector. In addition, these countries did not discriminate against non-members of the institution. In contrast, trade liberalization in developing countries was discriminatory and trade growth was observed only in primary and industrial products, but to a lesser extent than developed nations. Also, using the GTAP General Computable Equilibrium Model, the impacts of a hypothetical conclusion of the Doha Round on the developed and developing countries, members and non-members of the WTO, were evaluated. The results suggest that, by incorporating the reduction of non-tariff barriers in the reforms, in addition to import tariffs and export subsidies, gains in terms of GDP and welfare increase for its members, suggesting that its effects Are clearly dominant in relation to import tariffs and export subsidies. Considering the scenario of increased trade liberalization, developed countries would have a welfare growth of approximately US$ 572 billion while developing countries would increase US$ 441 billion. The cost of not being a member of the WTO in terms of welfare can reach up to US$ 34 billion.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O Sistema Geral de Preferências (SGP), principal exemplo da concessão de preferências tarifárias unilaterais pelos países desenvolvidos, vem sendo usufruído pelos países em desenvolvimento há mais de 30 anos. O SGP dos EUA, um dos programas mais importantes para o país, vem recentemente sendo objeto de apreensão devido às ameaças que os EUA fez ao Brasil de retirá-lo do programa. Além disso, a possibilidade de uma reestruturação do programa no momento de sua renovação traz muita preocupação ao setor exportador que teme sofrer prejuízos. Este trabalho foi estruturado com o objetivo de estimar a perda das exportações brasileiras para os EUA se o Brasil for eliminado da lista dos países beneficiários do SGP. Usando uma metodologia de equilíbrio parcial, o efeito total sobre as exportações foi calculado através dos efeitos de criação e desvio de comércio. Os resultados indicam uma diminuição de aproximadamente US$ 393 milhões nas exportações destinadas aos EUA e essa perda estaria fortemente concentrada em alguns setores específicos. / The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), main example of the preferential tariff concessions offered unilaterally by developed countries, has been used by developing countries for more than 30 years. The U.S. GSP, one of the most important programs to Brazil, has been causing some apprehension due to threats made by the U.S. to exclude this country from the program. Furthermore, the constant possibility of a program restructure at the moment of its renewal brings hesitation to the exporting sector that fears to suffer a great loss. This study was structured with the intention to estimate the loss to the Brazilian exports to the U.S. if Brazil is excluded from the list of beneficiaries of GSP. Using a partial equilibrium model, the total effect on the exports was calculated through the effects of trade creation and trade diversion. The results imply a decrease of US$ 393 millions of exports destined to U.S. and this loss would be very much concentrated on a few specific sectors.