A internet é, seguramente, a mídia que mais se expande no mundo, tendo importância crescente em todos os campos da atividade humana, seja profissional, educacional ou meramente recreativo. Essa importância é visível não apenas no grande número de pessoas que a usam em seu dia-a-dia (cerca de 33 milhões de pessoas no Brasil, 220 milhões nos Estados Unidos e mais de 1 bilhão de pessoas no mundo inteiro), nem somente pelo ritmo de crescimento nos primeiros anos da web comercial, mas principalmente pelo enorme leque de possibilidades de conteúdos e serviços disponíveis para os internautas. Dentre essas possibilidades estão os serviços de comércio eletrônico ou ecommerce, um dos mais importantes e com maior crescimento nos últimos anos, e o internet banking ou e-banking, responsável por profundas mudanças na relação dos usuários de serviços bancários com seus bancos, chegando ao ponto de correntistas não freqüentarem suas agências bancárias por anos seguidos, servindo-se apenas dos serviços online para resolver seus problemas diários e usando-se dos ATMs para saques financeiros. Esta dissertação tem o intuito de aprofundar o conhecimento da relação dos internautas com esses dois serviços, e-commerce e e-banking, analisando o fato de os dados disponíveis sobre o uso residencial da internet no Brasil indicarem que há queda no uso do segundo serviço, enquanto o primeiro continua em contínua ascensão. Esse conhecimento é importante, principalmente porque ambos são considerados similares pela literatura e, além disso, apresentavam curvas de crescimento similar até o final de 2003. Esse conhecimento passa também por entender o motivo que faz com que a intersecção dos grupos de usuários residenciais dos dois serviços seja em torno de 50% apenas, já que o internauta brasileiro, basicamente das classes A e B, tende a ser um consumidor de ambos os serviços off-line. / The internet is, for sure, the media with faster and higher growth in the world, with growing importance in all areas of human activities, from professional, educational or for entertainment. Such importance is visible not only because there are a huge number people with internet access for daily activities (around 33 million in Brazil, 220 million in the United States and 1 billion people around the world, nor because its very positive growth curve, but mainly due to its range of possibilities of contents and services available to the users. Among these possibilities are the e-commerce, one of the most important and with great growth during the recent years, and the e-banking, responsible for deep changes in the relation between banking services users and the banks, allowing some clients to stop visiting their physical agencies, using only the online channel to solve their daily problems and the ATMs to get some cash. This work intends to go deep in the knowledge of the relation among the internet users and the two services, namely e-commerce e e-banking, analyzing why the available at-home data about the Brazilian web use indicates that the second mentioned service loses audience, while the first one continues to grow in terms of visitors. Such knowledge is important, especially because both services are considered similar by the literature and, besides that, used to present a similar growth curve until de end of the year 2003. This knowledge also needs to understand why the intersection of the two groups of domestic users of both mentioned services is around 50% only, as the Brazilian internet user belongs to the richest A and B socio-economic classes, and because of this fact tends to be a consumer of both services off-line.

Submitted by Hugo Rego (hl_freitas@yahoo.com.br) on 2012-05-20T18:47:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação de Mestrado_Hugo L F de Moraes Rêgo.pdf: 699903 bytes, checksum: 7d039f1507408214660b09b7998f05b3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2012-05-21T12:11:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação de Mestrado_Hugo L F de Moraes Rêgo.pdf: 699903 bytes, checksum: 7d039f1507408214660b09b7998f05b3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-05-21T12:30:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação de Mestrado_Hugo L F de Moraes Rêgo.pdf: 699903 bytes, checksum: 7d039f1507408214660b09b7998f05b3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-19 / The goal of this work was to compare two different asset allocation methodologies, the classic and the Bayesian one. The utilized model was that of Meucci (2005). In order to reach this goal, empirical exercises were performed, utilizing data from the Brazilian financial market. The results found indicate that the Bayesian asset portfolio outperformed the classic one in terms of return and volatility, whereas the classic portfolio outperformed the market index. Moreover, this work also comprises modifications in the prior utilized in the Bayesian estimation. / Este trabalho teve como objetivo comparar duas metodologias de alocação ótima de ativos, a metodologia clássica e a metodologia bayesiana. O modelo utilizado foi o de Meucci (2005). Foram realizados diversos exercícios empíricos de montagem de carteiras de ativos seguindo essas metodologias, utilizando para isso dados do mercado acionário brasileiro. Os resultados encontrados indicam uma superioridade de desempenho, tanto em termos de retorno quanto de volatilidade, da carteira bayesiana em relação à clássica e desta em relação ao índice de mercado. Ademais, o trabalho também compreende modificações na prior utilizada na estimação bayesiana.

Cette thèse porte sur la modélisation, la prévision et la couverture du risque de contagion financière. Après une présentation générale des fondements théoriques et des mécanismes de propagation relatifs à la contagion financière, nous introduisons une modélisation fondée sur les modèles de cointégration non linéaire et de causalité non linéaire dans lesquels, les variables et le terme d’erreur du modèle à correction d’erreur obéissent à la dynamique de processus auto-régressifs à changement de régime de type TAR et M-TAR pour capter l’effet de contagion. Une extension de cette modélisation au cadre de prévision probabiliste conditionnelle a été faite par la suite à travers les réseaux de croyance Bayésienne pour renforcer le pouvoir prédictif. Ensuite, nous montrons comment une institution financière peut couvrir son portefeuille contre ce type de risque par de nouvelles approches. Nous proposons pour cela, une stratégie de couverture purement statique dans une perspective règlementaire à l’aide de modèles génératifs de type Vines-copula, une stratégie de couverture semi-statique fondée sur la budgétisation des risques et une stratégie de couverture dynamique à partir des processus de diffusion à sauts mutualisés. Ces nouvelles modélisations sont testées empiriquement sur un ensemble d’indices boursiers. / This Ph.D thesis focuses on modeling, forecasting and hedging financial contagion. After an overview of the theoretical foundations and spread mechanism relating to financial contagion, we introduce modeling based on nonlinear cointegration and non-linear causality models in which the variables and the error term in the correction model error obey at the dynamics of autoregressive regime change process of type TAR and M-TAR to catch the contagion effect. An extension of this model to conditional probabilistic forecasting framework was done through Bayesian belief networks, to enhance the predictive power. Then we show how a financial institution can hedge its portfolio against this risk by new specifications. Therefore, we offer a purely static hedging strategy in a regulatory perspective using generative models Vines-copula, a semi-static hedging strategy based on risk budgeting and dynamic hedging strategy based on mutually exciting jumps diffusion process. These new models are tested empirically on set of market indices.

Ontologies are a key factor of Information management as they provide a common representation to any domain. Historically, finance domain has suffered from a lack of efficiency in managing vast amounts of financial data, a lack of communication and knowledge sharing between analysts. Particularly, with the growth of fraud in financial markets, cases are challenging, complex, and involve a huge volume of information. Gathering facts and evidence is often complex. Thus, the impetus for building a financial fraud ontology arises from the continuous improvement and development of financial market surveillance systems with high analytical capabilities to capture frauds which is essential to guarantee and preserve an efficient market.This thesis proposes an ontology-based approach for financial market surveillance systems. The proposed ontology acts as a semantic representation of mining concepts from unstructured resources and other internet sources (corpus). The ontology contains a comprehensive concept system that can act as a semantically rich knowledge base for a market monitoring system. This could help fraud analysts to understand financial fraud practices, assist open investigation by managing relevant facts gathered for case investigations, providing early detection techniques of fraudulent activities, developing prevention practices, and sharing manipulation patterns from prosecuted cases with investigators and relevant users. The usefulness of the ontology will be evaluated through three case studies, which not only help to explain how manipulation in markets works, but will also demonstrate how the ontology can be used as a framework for the extraction process and capturing information related to financial fraud, to improve the performance of surveillance systems in fraud monitoring. Given that most manipulation cases occur in the unregulated markets, this thesis uses a sample of fraud cases from the unregulated markets. On the empirical side, the thesis presents examples of novel applications of text-mining tools and data-processing components, developing off-line surveillance systems that are fully working prototypes which could train the ontology in the most recent manipulation techniques.

El presente documento tiene como objetivo general exponer el proceso de estructuración detrás de la emisión del bono de Abengoa Transmisión Sur S.A. (ATS) y evaluar la emisión como caso de éxito en el Perú para proyectos de inversión de similar naturaleza. Los objetivos específicos del trabajo son: Explicar la adecuación del bono a la estructura contractual y financiera del proyecto de inversión desarrollado por Abengoa Transmisión Sur S.A. Describir los mecanismos aplicados a la emisión para mejorar su atractivo hacia los inversionistas. Diagnosticar el grado de éxito de la emisión en el público inversor. Analizar las implicancias de este tipo de emisión en el mercado de bonos para proyectos de infraestructura en el Perú. Cabe destacar, que este trabajo se realiza en base a la experiencia obtenida durante el proceso de estructuración de la emisión y sobre la información pública disponible de esta. Mi papel en el proceso de estructuración de la emisión abarcó la revisión y negociación de todos los contratos de la emisión con los estructuradores, la revisión del funcionamiento del modelo financiero aplicado, el llenado de los formatos necesarios para proceder con la emisión, la coordinación con asesores legales, consultores de los estructuradores y agencias de rating y atender eventuales consultas de los potenciales inversionistas. El sondeo de precio del bono y la determinación de la tasa de interés cupón aplicable al bono fueron realizados por los estructuradores. Por tanto, se hace el énfasis de que el presente trabajo se expone desde la perspectiva del emisor y no del inversionista. / Trabajo de investigación

This master thesis is written as a guideline for successful business expansion to Chinese market. It describes the regional characteristics, which are important in order to understand the Chinese culture, since without proper understanding of the culture, all of its aspects and concepts such as Guanxi, no foreign firm will be able to succeed in China. Apart of the cultural analysis it also deals with the theory of expansion, how to correctly approach it, what are the possible entry modes and financial sources. I used three case studies, which provide real life experience with this issue from different points of view. The practical part of the thesis is primarily focused on financial industry in China, specifically on investment funds and what should be the necessary steps for any investment fund, which would like to expand to Chinese market.

Diploma thesis is dealing with causes of current financial crisis, especially with financial regulation failure and its analysis. Regulation failure was incontrovertibly the important cause of current crisis. As a result of regulation failure we can identify these as follows: asset securitization,rating agencies failure, information asymmetry,negative externalities etc. This thesis is also concerned with analysis of bankruptcy of american investment bank Lehman Brothers. The last part of work examine the financial regulatory reform.

The financial market anomaly can be characterized as the event when observed stock returns differentiate from those expected by concrete pricing model. Many anomalies have been detected so far, and some of them vanished, while other persisted, after they had been published by academics and researchers. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the potential presence of selected types of anomalies in the financial markets and to provide relevant empirical evidence. The theoretical section will supply the reader with the descriptions of several types of financial market anomalies and the results of past studies documenting the existence of these anomalies, with possible reasons justifying the presence of this phenomenon. The analytical section will focus on the few selected anomalies and test whether they are still present in the selected financial markets.

Ukraine is quite new country, which faces early stages of its development. The financial market of the country has passed through different and challenging times for these 20 years and still has to choose several essential factors for the further development. The existence of financial frauds in Ukraine could be explained by lack of knowledge and information in the country as well as low level of trust to the government. The case of JSC "MMM" and Mr. Mavrodi is the best well-known example of Ponzi scheme in Ukraine and all post-Soviet countries, which gives the possibility to analyze the main features of its consequences.

Debt crisis is seen as a spiral which has been launched by failure of American financial market and which final stage is global economic depression. But we can not speak only about financial market crisis. Current world crisis is at the same time political crisis and social crisis; it is a multi-sector crisis. Actors which try to manage the crisis, their abilities, possibilities to act and their strategies in each sector will be identified and described in the thesis. Complexity of current crisis demands global solutions involving cooperation of different actors throughout all three mentioned sectors.