Connected and autonomous vehicles are emerging technologies that have fostered the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). ITS has the objective of optimizing traffic safety, mobility, and fuel consumption. To achieve this, a range of different services are provided that utilize communication in a vehicular network. One of these services that has received a lot of attention lately due to its ongoing standardization is the Maneuver Coordination Service (MCS). MCS has already shown great potential in the support of complex traffic areas, also called Transition Area (TA), where vehicles must cooperate to avoid Transition of Controls (ToCs). ITS-services often rely on communicated data; small errors, such as inaccessible or incorrect data, can cause the system to behave incorrectly. Signal interference (jamming) can cause communication interruptions, making vehicles unaware of each other. Incorrect data can be intentional due to data injection attacks, but also unintentional due to malfunctioning sensors, making vehicles incorrectly aware of each other. Incorrect behavior in systems such as ITS can lead to traffic congestion or even life-threatening collisions. This study focuses on MCS and examines traffic behavior when the service, in a generic traffic scenario, is subjected to jamming and falsification attacks with a variety of strategies (negative and positive speed, acceleration and position offset). We considered external attackers (not authenticated) that can disrupt communication, as well as internal attackers (authenticated) that are limited to tampering with outgoing data. Through severe collisions and travel time delays, the results show an impact on both safety and mobility. The results also show that different attacks with different impacts on the adversary can cause similar effects on the traffic, thus allowing the adversary to choose attacks based on the desired impact and its rationality, i.e. its willingness to be part of the impact. The study also proposes an extension to an already proposed Maneuver Coordination Protocol (MCP). We show that our extended MCP can be beneficial in avoiding dangerous maneuvers that could lead to collisions with cars in the blind spot. / Uppkopplade och autonoma fordon är framväxande teknologier som har främjat Intelligenta Transporteringssystem (ITS). ITS har som mål att optimera trafiksäkerhet, mobilitet och bränsleförbrukning. För att uppnå detta tillhandahålls en rad olika tjänster som utnyttjar kommunikation i ett fordonsnät. En av dessa tjänster som har fått mycket uppmärksamhet under den senaste tiden, tack vare sin pågående standardisering, är Manöverkoordinationtjänsten (MCS). MCS har redan visat stor potential för att stödja komplexa trafikområden, även kallade Övergångsområden (TA), där fordon måste samarbeta för att undvika kontrollövergångar (ToCs). ITS-tjänster förlitar sig ofta på kommunicerad data; små fel, som otillgängliga eller felaktiga data, kan göra att systemet beter sig felaktigt. Signalstörningar kan orsaka kommunikationsavbrott, vilket gör fordon omedvetna om varandra. Felaktig data kan vara avsiktliga på grund av datainjektionsattacker, men också oavsiktliga på grund av felaktiga sensorer, vilket gör fordon felaktigt medvetna om varandra. Felaktigt beteende i system som ITS kan leda till trafikstockningar eller till och med livshotande kollisioner. Denna studie fokuserar på MCS och undersöker trafikbeteendet när tjänsten, i ett generiskt trafikscenario, utsätts för signalstörningar och förfalskningsattacker med en mängd olika strategier (negativ och positiv hastighet, acceleration och positionsförskjutning). Vi tog hänsyn till externa angripare (ej autentiserade) som kan störa kommunikationen, såväl som interna angripare (autentiserade) som är begränsade till att manipulera utgående data. Genom allvarliga kollisioner och restidsförseningar visar resultaten en inverkan på både säkerhet och mobilitet. Resultaten visar också att olika attacker med olika inverkan på angriparen kan orsaka liknande effekter på trafiken, vilket gör att angriparen kan välja attacker baserat på den önskade effekten och rationaliteten, d.v.s. dens villighet att vara en del av påverkan. Studien föreslår också en utökning av en redan föreslagen MCP. Vi visar att vårt utökade MCP kan vara till nytta för att undvika farliga manövrar som kan leda till kollisioner med bilar i döda vinkeln.

The introduction of the private vehicle in urban communities (towns and cities) resulted in numerous urban problems experienced in the developed and developing world. These include, inter alia, economic inefficiency due to traffic congestion; a high mortality rate relevant to vehicle users and non-vehicle users; air & noise pollution and overall poor quality of life for residents. As part of the literature review, it was found that the level of urban problems experienced will intensify and worsen, if sustainable transportation systems were not introduced in urban areas. These predictions were made based on the following three factors: * The increase of the world population – It was predicated that the world population will increase by 2.3 people billion between 2011 and 2050. The total world population is therefore expected to be 9.3 billion in 2050. * The urbanisation rate experienced – It was predicated that the entire world population growth, along with an additional 300 million people, will be absorbed by urban areas between 2011 and 2050. Urban communities will therefore accommodate 6.2 billion people, or 67% of the world population, in 2050. * The level and growth in private vehicle ownership – The developed world consists of a high level of vehicles per 1 000 residents (655 in 2010), but experienced a decline in growth of 0,8% between 2005 and 2010. Contrary to the developed world, the developing world had a low level of vehicle ownership per 1 000 residents (128 in 2010), but experienced an increase of 21.9% between 2005 and 2010. Apart from the above data, the literature review introduced planning theories and international as well as national policies. The three planning theories that were researched each revealed ten principles of sustainable alternative transportation measures for an unsustainable private vehicle orientated urban area. These sustainable measures were used to introduce the option of a sustainable non-motorised transportation system to the demarcated study area. The three planning theories researched were: * The Smart growth theory * New urbanism, and * Pedestrian mall developments. International and national policies were scrutinised to obtain a point-of-view on how different countries, cities, spheres of government and type of documentation addressed non-motorised transportation developments. The examination of the policies also provided insight on how South African spheres of government were addressing non-motorised transportation in South African urban communities, if at all. The international policies include the “Share the road” document compiled by the United Nations in 2010; Mount Rainier Town Centre Urban Renewal Plan (2005) (USA) and Ottawa’s Transport Master Plan (2008) (Canada). The South African policies included the National Non-motorised Transportation Policy (2008); National Transport Master Plan (2011); Northern Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework (2012) and //Khara Hais Spatial Development Framework (2012) (local municipality). Following the literature review, is an empirical study consisting of 2 sections. Firstly, a pilot study, which consists of international and local examples, was researched. These examples were identified as they consist of vehicle-free areas within the central business district. The success of the vehicle-free developments was measured and the information utilised to guide recommendations for the demarcated study area within the town of Upington (case study). Pilot study examples include Copenhagen, Denmark; Ghent, Belgium; Santa Monica, USA and Cape Town, South Africa. Secondly, a case study was analysed. A study area within the South African town of Upington, Northern Cape Province was demarcated. The status quo of relevant aspects, including but not limited to; the climate, coverage, parking, road hierarchy and transport modes were obtained and analysed. This analysis was conducted in order to establish a) if the study area experienced urban transport related problems and b) if the implementation of a non-motorised transport system will be more sustainable for the general public of Upington, as opposed to the current private-vehicle dependable system. Inputs from Town Planners were also obtained in order to obtain a multi-dimensional point-of-view. In the conclusion of the researched study it was found that a) the planning theories have been successfully implemented in the examples of the pilot studies and therefore these principles could apply to the demarcated study area in Upington. b) International policies addressed non-motorisation developments more comprehensively than the South African policies. Shortages especially existed at the provincial and local spheres of government where implementation should take place. c) Through the analysis of the case study it become evident that the demarcated study area within Upington was burdened by private vehicle orientated transport problems. However, the analysis also indicated that the study area has the potential to make a successful transition from being dependable on unsustainable private vehicles to sustainable non-motorised transportation. Finally, tailor-made recommendations (based on information derived from planning theories, policies, pilot study and case study) were made for the study area situated within Upington. These recommendations include the phased development of a pedestrian-only area, the development of parking garages (outside the pedestrian area), which are linked to the pedestrian-only area and the development of a public transportation system by means of busses. / MArt et Scien (Urban and Regional Planning), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

The introduction of the private vehicle in urban communities (towns and cities) resulted in numerous urban problems experienced in the developed and developing world. These include, inter alia, economic inefficiency due to traffic congestion; a high mortality rate relevant to vehicle users and non-vehicle users; air & noise pollution and overall poor quality of life for residents. As part of the literature review, it was found that the level of urban problems experienced will intensify and worsen, if sustainable transportation systems were not introduced in urban areas. These predictions were made based on the following three factors: * The increase of the world population – It was predicated that the world population will increase by 2.3 people billion between 2011 and 2050. The total world population is therefore expected to be 9.3 billion in 2050. * The urbanisation rate experienced – It was predicated that the entire world population growth, along with an additional 300 million people, will be absorbed by urban areas between 2011 and 2050. Urban communities will therefore accommodate 6.2 billion people, or 67% of the world population, in 2050. * The level and growth in private vehicle ownership – The developed world consists of a high level of vehicles per 1 000 residents (655 in 2010), but experienced a decline in growth of 0,8% between 2005 and 2010. Contrary to the developed world, the developing world had a low level of vehicle ownership per 1 000 residents (128 in 2010), but experienced an increase of 21.9% between 2005 and 2010. Apart from the above data, the literature review introduced planning theories and international as well as national policies. The three planning theories that were researched each revealed ten principles of sustainable alternative transportation measures for an unsustainable private vehicle orientated urban area. These sustainable measures were used to introduce the option of a sustainable non-motorised transportation system to the demarcated study area. The three planning theories researched were: * The Smart growth theory * New urbanism, and * Pedestrian mall developments. International and national policies were scrutinised to obtain a point-of-view on how different countries, cities, spheres of government and type of documentation addressed non-motorised transportation developments. The examination of the policies also provided insight on how South African spheres of government were addressing non-motorised transportation in South African urban communities, if at all. The international policies include the “Share the road” document compiled by the United Nations in 2010; Mount Rainier Town Centre Urban Renewal Plan (2005) (USA) and Ottawa’s Transport Master Plan (2008) (Canada). The South African policies included the National Non-motorised Transportation Policy (2008); National Transport Master Plan (2011); Northern Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework (2012) and //Khara Hais Spatial Development Framework (2012) (local municipality). Following the literature review, is an empirical study consisting of 2 sections. Firstly, a pilot study, which consists of international and local examples, was researched. These examples were identified as they consist of vehicle-free areas within the central business district. The success of the vehicle-free developments was measured and the information utilised to guide recommendations for the demarcated study area within the town of Upington (case study). Pilot study examples include Copenhagen, Denmark; Ghent, Belgium; Santa Monica, USA and Cape Town, South Africa. Secondly, a case study was analysed. A study area within the South African town of Upington, Northern Cape Province was demarcated. The status quo of relevant aspects, including but not limited to; the climate, coverage, parking, road hierarchy and transport modes were obtained and analysed. This analysis was conducted in order to establish a) if the study area experienced urban transport related problems and b) if the implementation of a non-motorised transport system will be more sustainable for the general public of Upington, as opposed to the current private-vehicle dependable system. Inputs from Town Planners were also obtained in order to obtain a multi-dimensional point-of-view. In the conclusion of the researched study it was found that a) the planning theories have been successfully implemented in the examples of the pilot studies and therefore these principles could apply to the demarcated study area in Upington. b) International policies addressed non-motorisation developments more comprehensively than the South African policies. Shortages especially existed at the provincial and local spheres of government where implementation should take place. c) Through the analysis of the case study it become evident that the demarcated study area within Upington was burdened by private vehicle orientated transport problems. However, the analysis also indicated that the study area has the potential to make a successful transition from being dependable on unsustainable private vehicles to sustainable non-motorised transportation. Finally, tailor-made recommendations (based on information derived from planning theories, policies, pilot study and case study) were made for the study area situated within Upington. These recommendations include the phased development of a pedestrian-only area, the development of parking garages (outside the pedestrian area), which are linked to the pedestrian-only area and the development of a public transportation system by means of busses. / MArt et Scien (Urban and Regional Planning), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Dans la première partie de cette thèse, on formule deux méthodes pour le calcul d'une décomposition polyadique canonique avec facteurs matriciels linéairement structurés (tels que des facteurs de Toeplitz ou en bande): un algorithme de moindres carrés alternés contraint (CALS) et une solution algébrique dans le cas où tous les facteurs sont circulants. Des versions exacte et approchée de la première méthode sont étudiées. La deuxième méthode fait appel à la transformée de Fourier multidimensionnelle du tenseur considéré, ce qui conduit à la résolution d'un système d'équations monomiales homogènes. Nos simulations montrent que la combinaison de ces approches fournit un estimateur statistiquement efficace, ce qui reste vrai pour d'autres combinaisons de CALS dans des scénarios impliquant des facteurs non-circulants. La seconde partie de la thèse porte sur la récupération de tenseurs de rang faible et, en particulier, sur le problème de reconstruction tensorielle (TC). On propose un algorithme efficace, noté SeMPIHT, qui emploie des projections séquentiellement optimales par mode comme opérateur de seuillage dur. Une borne de performance est dérivée sous des conditions d'isométrie restreinte habituelles, ce qui fournit des bornes d'échantillonnage sous-optimales. Cependant, nos simulations suggèrent que SeMPIHT obéit à des bornes optimales pour des mesures Gaussiennes. Des heuristiques de sélection du pas et d'augmentation graduelle du rang sont aussi élaborées dans le but d'améliorer sa performance. On propose aussi un schéma d'imputation pour TC basé sur un seuillage doux du coeur du modèle de Tucker et son utilité est illustrée avec des données réelles de trafic routier / In the first part of this thesis, we formulate two methods for computing a canonical polyadic decomposition having linearly structured matrix factors (such as, e.g., Toeplitz or banded factors): a general constrained alternating least squares (CALS) algorithm and an algebraic solution for the case where all factors are circulant. Exact and approximate versions of the former method are studied. The latter method relies on a multidimensional discrete-time Fourier transform of the target tensor, which leads to a system of homogeneous monomial equations whose resolution provides the desired circulant factors. Our simulations show that combining these approaches yields a statistically efficient estimator, which is also true for other combinations of CALS in scenarios involving non-circulant factors. The second part of the thesis concerns low-rank tensor recovery (LRTR) and, in particular, the tensor completion (TC) problem. We propose an efficient algorithm, called SeMPIHT, employing sequentially optimal modal projections as its hard thresholding operator. Then, a performance bound is derived under usual restricted isometry conditions, which however yield suboptimal sampling bounds. Yet, our simulations suggest SeMPIHT obeys optimal sampling bounds for Gaussian measurements. Step size selection and gradual rank increase heuristics are also elaborated in order to improve performance. We also devise an imputation scheme for TC based on soft thresholding of a Tucker model core and illustrate its utility in completing real-world road traffic data acquired by an intelligent transportation

[ES] En la actualidad, uno de los principales desafíos a los que se enfrentan las grandes áreas metropolitanas es la congestión provocada por el tráfico, la cual se ha convertido en un problema importante al que se enfrentan las autoridades de cada ciudad. Para abordar este problema es necesario implementar una solución eficiente para controlar el tráfico que genere beneficios para los ciudadanos, como reducir los tiempos de viaje de los vehículos y, en consecuencia, el consumo de combustible, el ruido, y la contaminación ambiental. De hecho, al analizar adecuadamente la demanda de tráfico, es posible predecir las condiciones futuras del tráfico, y utilizar esa información para la optimización de las rutas tomadas por los vehículos. Este enfoque puede ser especialmente efectivo si se aplica en el contexto de los vehículos autónomos, que tienen un comportamiento más predecible, lo cual permite a los administradores de la ciudad mitigar los efectos de la congestión, como es la contaminación, al mejorar el flujo de tráfico de manera totalmente centralizada. La validación de este enfoque generalmente requiere el uso de simulaciones que deberían ser lo más realistas posible. Sin embargo, lograr altos grados de realismo puede ser complejo cuando los patrones de tráfico reales, definidos a través de una matriz de Origen/Destino (O-D) para los vehículos en una ciudad, son desconocidos, como ocurre la mayoría de las veces. Por lo tanto, la primera contribución de esta tesis es desarrollar una heurística iterativa para mejorar el modelado de la congestión de tráfico; a partir de las mediciones de bucle de inducción reales hechas por el Ayuntamiento de Valencia (España), pudimos generar una matriz O-D para la simulación de tráfico que se asemeja a la distribución de tráfico real. Si fuera posible caracterizar el estado del tráfico prediciendo las condiciones futuras del tráfico para optimizar la ruta de los vehículos automatizados, y si se pudieran tomar estas medidas para mitigar de manera preventiva los efectos de la congestión con sus problemas relacionados, se podría mejorar el flujo de tráfico en general. Por lo tanto, la segunda contribución de esta tesis es desarrollar una Ecuación de Predicción de Tráfico para caracterizar el comportamiento en las diferentes calles de la ciudad en términos de tiempo de viaje con respecto al volumen de tráfico, y aplicar una regresión logística a esos datos para predecir las condiciones futuras del tráfico. La tercera y última contribución de esta tesis apunta directamente al nuevo paradigma de gestión de tráfico previsto, tratándose de un servidor de rutas capaz de manejar todo el tráfico en una ciudad, y equilibrar los flujos de tráfico teniendo en cuenta las condiciones de congestión del tráfico presentes y futuras. Por lo tanto, realizamos un estudio de simulación con datos reales de congestión de tráfico en la ciudad de Valencia (España), para demostrar cómo se puede mejorar el flujo de tráfico en un día típico mediante la solución propuesta. Los resultados experimentales muestran que nuestra solución, combinada con una actualización frecuente de las condiciones del tráfico en el servidor de rutas, es capaz de lograr mejoras sustanciales en términos de velocidad promedio y tiempo de trayecto, ambos indicadores de un menor grado de congestión y de una mejor fluidez del tráfico. / [CA] En l'actualitat, un dels principals desafiaments als quals s'enfronten les grans àrees metropolitanes és la congestió provocada pel trànsit, que s'ha convertit en un problema important al qual s'enfronten les autoritats de cada ciutat. Per a abordar aquest problema és necessari implementar una solució eficient per a controlar el trànsit que genere beneficis per als ciutadans, com reduir els temps de viatge dels vehicles i, en conseqüència, el consum de combustible, el soroll, i la contaminació ambiental. De fet, en analitzar adequadament la demanda de trànsit, és possible predir les condicions futures del trànsit, i utilitzar aqueixa informació per a l'optimització de les rutes preses pels vehicles. Aquest enfocament pot ser especialment efectiu si s'aplica en el context dels vehicles autònoms, que tenen un comportament més predictible, i això permet als administradors de la ciutat mitigar els efectes de la congestió, com és la contaminació, en millorar el flux de trànsit de manera totalment centralitzada. La validació d'aquest enfocament generalment requereix l'ús de simulacions que haurien de ser el més realistes possible. No obstant això, aconseguir alts graus de realisme pot ser complex quan els patrons de trànsit reals, definits a través d'una matriu d'Origen/Destinació (O-D) per als vehicles en una ciutat, són desconeguts, com ocorre la majoria de les vegades. Per tant, la primera contribució d'aquesta tesi és desenvolupar una heurística iterativa per a millorar el modelatge de la congestió de trànsit; a partir dels mesuraments de bucle d'inducció reals fetes per l'Ajuntament de València (Espanya), vam poder generar una matriu O-D per a la simulació de trànsit que s'assembla a la distribució de trànsit real. Si fóra possible caracteritzar l'estat del trànsit predient les condicions futures del trànsit per a optimitzar la ruta dels vehicles automatitzats, i si es pogueren prendre aquestes mesures per a mitigar de manera preventiva els efectes de la congestió amb els seus problemes relacionats, es podria millorar el flux de trànsit en general. Per tant, la segona contribució d'aquesta tesi és desenvolupar una Equació de Predicció de Trànsit per a caracteritzar el comportament en els diferents carrers de la ciutat en termes de temps de viatge respecte al volum de trànsit, i aplicar una regressió logística a aqueixes dades per a predir les condicions futures del trànsit. La tercera i última contribució d'aquesta tesi apunta directament al nou paradigma de gestió de trànsit previst. Es tracta d'un servidor de rutes capaç de manejar tot el trànsit en una ciutat, i equilibrar els fluxos de trànsit tenint en compte les condicions de congestió del trànsit presents i futures. Per tant, realitzem un estudi de simulació amb dades reals de congestió de trànsit a la ciutat de València (Espanya), per a demostrar com es pot millorar el flux de trànsit en un dia típic mitjançant la solució proposada. Els resultats experimentals mostren que la nostra solució, combinada amb una actualització freqüent de les condicions del trànsit en el servidor de rutes, és capaç d'aconseguir millores substancials en termes de velocitat faig una mitjana i de temps de trajecte, tots dos indicadors d'un grau menor de congestió i d'una fluïdesa millor del trànsit. / [EN] Currently, one of the main challenges that large metropolitan areas have to face is traffic congestion, which has become an important problem faced by city authorities. To address this problem, it becomes necessary to implement an efficient solution to control traffic that generates benefits for citizens, such as reducing vehicle journey times and, consequently, use of fuel, noise and environmental pollution. In fact, by properly analyzing traffic demand, it becomes possible to predict future traffic conditions, and to use that information for the optimization of the routes taken by vehicles. Such an approach becomes especially effective if applied in the context of autonomous vehicles, which have a more predictable behavior, thus enabling city management entities to mitigate the effects of traffic congestion and pollution by improving the traffic flow in a city in a fully centralized manner. Validating this approach typically requires the use of simulations, which should be as realistic as possible. However, achieving high degrees of realism can be complex when the actual traffic patterns, defined through an Origin/Destination (O-D) matrix for the vehicles in a city, are unknown, as occurs most of the times. Thus, the first contribution of this thesis is to develop an iterative heuristic for improving traffic congestion modeling; starting from real induction loop measurements made available by the City Hall of Valencia, Spain, we were able to generate an O-D matrix for traffic simulation that resembles the real traffic distribution. If it were possible to characterize the state of traffic by predicting future traffic conditions for optimizing the route of automated vehicles, and if these measures could be taken to preventively mitigate the effects of congestion with its related problems, the overall traffic flow could be improved. Thereby, the second contribution of this thesis was to develop a Traffic Prediction Equation to characterize the different streets of a city in terms of travel time with respect to the vehicle load, and applying logistic regression to those data to predict future traffic conditions. The third and last contribution of this thesis towards our envisioned traffic management paradigm was a route server capable of handling all the traffic in a city, and balancing traffic flows by accounting for present and future traffic congestion conditions. Thus, we perform a simulation study using real data of traffic congestion in the city of Valencia, Spain, to demonstrate how the traffic flow in a typical day can be improved using our proposed solution. Experimental results show that our proposed solution, combined with frequent updating of traffic conditions on the route server, is able to achieve substantial improvements in terms of average travel speeds and travel times, both indicators of lower degrees of congestion and improved traffic fluidity. / Finally, I want to thank the Ecuatorian Republic through the "Secretaría de Educación Superior, Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación" (SENESCYT), for granting me the scholarship to finance my studies. / Zambrano Martínez, JL. (2019). Efficient Traffic Management in Urban Environments [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/129865 / TESIS

The convergence of various technological and operational advancements has reinstated the interest in On-Demand Air Service (ODAS) as a viable mode of transportation. ODAS enables an end-user to be transported in an aircraft between their desired origin and destination at their preferred time without advance notice. Industry, academia, and the government organizations are collaborating to create technology solutions suited for large-scale implementation of this mode of transportation. Market studies suggest reducing vehicle operating cost per passenger as one of the biggest enablers of this market. To enable ODAS, an ODAS operator controls a fleet of aircraft that are deployed across a set of nodes (e.g., airports, vertiports) to satisfy end-user transportation requests. There is a gap in the literature for a tractable and online methodology that can enable ride-sharing in the on-demand operations while maintaining a publicly acceptable level of service (such as with low waiting time). The need for an approach that not only supports a dynamic-stochastic formulation but can also handle uncertainty with unknowable properties, drives me towards the field of Reinforcement Learning (RL). In this work, a novel two-layer hierarchical RL framework is proposed that can distribute a fleet of aircraft across a nodal network as well as perform real-time scheduling for an ODAS operator. The top layer of the framework - the Fleet Distributor - is modeled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process whereas the lower layer - the Trip Request Manager - is modeled as a Semi-Markov Decision Process. This framework is successfully demonstrated and assessed through various studies for a hypothetical ODAS operator in the Chicago region. This approach provides a new way of solving fleet distribution and scheduling problems in aviation. It also bridges the gap between the state-of-the-art RL advancements and node-based transportation network problems. Moreover, this work provides a non-proprietary approach to reasonably model ODAS operations that can be leveraged by researchers and policy makers.

While decision-making under uncertainty is a major universal problem, its implications in the field of transportation systems are especially enormous; where the benefits of right decisions are tremendous, the consequences of wrong ones are potentially disastrous. In the realm of highway systems, decisions related to the highway configuration (number of lanes, right of way, etc.) need to incorporate both the traffic demand and land price uncertainties. In the literature, these uncertainties have generally been modeled using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process, which has been used extensively in modeling many other real life phenomena. But few scholars, including those who used the GBM in highway configuration decisions, have offered any rigorous justification for the use of this model. This thesis attempts to offer a detailed analysis of various aspects of transportation systems in relation to decision-making. It reveals some general insights as well as a new concept that extends the notion of opportunity cost to situations where wrong decisions could be made. Claiming deficiency of the GBM model, it also introduces a new formulation that utilizes a large and flexible parametric family of jump models (i.e., Lévy processes). To validate this claim, data related to traffic demand and land prices were collected and analyzed to reveal that their distributions, heavy-tailed and asymmetric, do not match well with the GBM model. As a remedy, this research used the Merton, Kou, and negative inverse Gaussian Lévy processes as possible alternatives. Though the results show indifference in relation to final decisions among the models, mathematically, they improve the precision of uncertainty models and the decision-making process. This furthers the quest for optimality in highway projects and beyond.

While decision-making under uncertainty is a major universal problem, its implications in the field of transportation systems are especially enormous; where the benefits of right decisions are tremendous, the consequences of wrong ones are potentially disastrous. In the realm of highway systems, decisions related to the highway configuration (number of lanes, right of way, etc.) need to incorporate both the traffic demand and land price uncertainties. In the literature, these uncertainties have generally been modeled using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process, which has been used extensively in modeling many other real life phenomena. But few scholars, including those who used the GBM in highway configuration decisions, have offered any rigorous justification for the use of this model. This thesis attempts to offer a detailed analysis of various aspects of transportation systems in relation to decision-making. It reveals some general insights as well as a new concept that extends the notion of opportunity cost to situations where wrong decisions could be made. Claiming deficiency of the GBM model, it also introduces a new formulation that utilizes a large and flexible parametric family of jump models (i.e., Lévy processes). To validate this claim, data related to traffic demand and land prices were collected and analyzed to reveal that their distributions, heavy-tailed and asymmetric, do not match well with the GBM model. As a remedy, this research used the Merton, Kou, and negative inverse Gaussian Lévy processes as possible alternatives. Though the results show indifference in relation to final decisions among the models, mathematically, they improve the precision of uncertainty models and the decision-making process. This furthers the quest for optimality in highway projects and beyond.