DC, Georgetown Univ., Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Diss.--Washington, 2004. / Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich.

A utilização do modelo de Black-Scholes e suas extensões na precificação de opções é bastante difundida tanto na academia quanto no mercado financeiro. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de um modelo alternativo de precificação de opções em relação ao do modelo de Black na precificação de opções sobre futuro de dólar. Mais especificamente, a partir de hipóteses sobre o comportamento agregado da economia, da trajetória de preços de ativos e das preferências a risco dos agentes econômicos, é possível reconciliar uma condição de equilíbrio parcial, necessária para a precificação de opções, com uma condição de equilíbrio geral da economia. Essa reconciliação é obtida a partir da escolha cuidadosa de pares de preferências a risco e distribuições e possibilita a obtenção do preço de equilíbrio livre de preferências de um derivativo lançado sobre um dado ativo-objeto. O presente estudo utiliza os resultados de uma generalização recente feita por Câmara (2003), que demonstrou como distribuições e preferências podem ser combinadas de forma que se obtenham fórmulas fechadas para precificação de opções. Particularmente, assume-se que os preços do contrato futuro de dólar possuem distribuição lognormal com assimetria negativa, hipótese que resulta em uma fórmula alternativa de precificação de opções lançadas sobre esse contrato. O modelo obtido foi matematicamente contrastado com o modelo de Black, o que possibilitou que as implicações nos preços das opções, resultantes da premissa de assimetria negativa, fossem evidenciadas. Os desempenhos dos modelos foram comparados com base nos preços de mercado das opções. Os resultados alcançados sugerem que , em geral, o modelo de Black apresenta desempenho melhor que o modelo alternativo na precificação de opções sobre futuro de dólar. / The utilization of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is widespread, in both the academe and the market. Additionally, the literature related to its generalizations and adaptations is vast. Of particular importance are works concerning new sufficient conditions for existing risk-neutral option pricing equations. Under a new set of propositions on distributions and preferences, Câmara (2003) derived new analytical solutions for the price of European-style contingent claims. The objective of the present study was to adapt and test an option pricing model that was derived by Câmara (2003). Particularly, the tested model assumes that the underlying asset, in this case the US dollar futures contract traded on the Brazilian Mercantile & Futures Exchange, follows a negatively skew lognormal distribution. The performance of the alternative model was compared to that of the Black model, the standard model used in the market to price such options. More specifically, the performances of both models were measured against the market prices of US dollar futures options. Also, considerations about the validity of the negative skew lognormal hypothesis were made and a mathematical analysis of the differences in the prices generated by the two models was carried out. In the end, although the alternative model produces, in some cases, prices that are closer to the market’s, the evidences suggest that, in general, the Black model performs better than the alternative one.

Through an analysis of the presence and nature of international monetary flows of non-declared origin and their relation to deviant knowledge, the thesis determines that both terrorism and organised crime are nurtured by a constant trickle from minor sources rather than by large financial transfers; and that anti-money laundering provisions are misapplied, taken too far, too expensive, and incapable of demonstrating their effectiveness. In lieu of more traditional policy recommendations, the thesis develops a complexity-theory based intelligence function, capillary intelligence, to improve the present information-gathering systems and generate consistent and context-relevant intelligence for the consideration of policy-makers. The intelligence function takes into account also the concept of self-organised criticality. The thesis fully adheres to the principle that efficiently applied intelligence-led approaches for detection of organised crime are demonstrably superior to a 'follow the money' approach. An extended concept of deviant knowledge is developed and five methodological techniques employed: Complexity theory, network theory, self-organised criticality, scaling theory, and intelligence treatment. The thesis is multidisciplinary and calls on contributions from International Law, Economics, Criminal Justice Studies, and Governance and Ethics. Its approach is illustrative and fits Baudrillard's 1981 methodological principles known as bricolage. Using five methodologies and six major case studies, the thesis reaches four conclusions. First, the rapid expansion in the currency component of the US money supply (M1) has no domestic explanation and can best be explained by an increase in overseas illegal traffics of various sorts. Second, terrorism and major organised crime are, for a large part, nurtured by a constant trickle of funds originating from minor crime, such as, respectively, smuggling of tobacco product and retail fencing, and sale of counterfeit luxury goods. Third, calculation of the cost of the application of anti-money laundering shows these to be cost-inefficient, apart from being highly intrusive. The thesis' calculations as well as prior literature makes it certain that such provisions, although inefficient, are enforced in a forceful exemplification of the deviant knowledge concept. Fourth, the thesis demonstrates the importance of organised crime in resource depletion and emphasises the nefarious consequences of such criminal behaviour, in particular as regards deforestation, since organised crime can apply the necessary pressure on the local population - in conjunction with extensive corruption of police or military personnel - and provide the managerial expertise to have the trees felled, transported internationally by ship and sold in another country often with false documentation as to the origins of the forest product. In a final case study, the tragic concept of resource curse is considered, in casu the island of Bougainville, PNG.

No description available.

The thesis examine if the uncovered interest rate parity holds over a 10 year period between Japan and Australia/Norway/USA. The data is collected between February 2001 - December 2010 and is used to, through regression and correlation analysis, explain if the theory holds or not. In the thesis it is also included a simulated portfolio that shows how a carry trading strategy could have been exercised and proof is shown that you can indeed profit as an investor on this kind of trades with low risk. The thesis shows in the end that the theory of uncovered interest rate parity does not hold in the long term and that some opportunities for profits with low risk do exist. / Uppsatsen undersöker om det icke kurssäkrade ränteparitetsvilkoret har hållit på en 10-års period mellan Japan och Australien/Norge/USA. Månadsdata från februari 2001 till december 2010 används för att genom regressionsanalys samt undersökning av korrelationer se om sambandet håller eller inte. I studien finns också en simulerad portfölj som visar hur en carry trading portfölj kan ha sett ut under den undersökta tidsperioden och hur man kan profitera på denna typ av handel med låg risk. Studien visar i slutet att teorin om det kursosäkrade ränteparitetsvilkoret inte håller i det långa loppet och att vissa möjligheter till vinst existerar.

This thesis is based on four essays in exchange rates and international finance. The first essay, examined in the second chapter, considers the long-run performance of the flexible-price monetary model as well as the real interest differential monetary model to explain the dollar–yen exchange rate during a period of high international capital mobility. We apply the Johansen methodology to quarterly data over the period 1980:01–2009:04 and show that the inadequacy of the two monetary models is due to the breakdown of their underlying building-blocks, money demand stability and purchasing power parity. In particular, modifying the monetary models by adjusting them for real stock prices to capture the stability of money demands on one hand and also for real economic variables such as productivity differential, relative government spending, and real oil price to explain the persistence in the real exchange rate on the other provide long-run relationships that appear consistent with the monetary models. Our findings of long-run weak exogeneity tests also emphasise the importance of the extended models employed here. The second essay, examined in the third chapter, is on the nature of the linkages between stock market prices and exchange rates in six advanced economies, namely the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, the euro area, and Switzerland, using data on the banking crisis between 2007 and 2010. Bivariate GARCH-BEKK models are estimated to produce evidence of unidirectional Granger causality from stock returns to exchange rate changes in the US and the UK, in the opposite direction in Canada, and of bidirectional causality in the euro area and Switzerland. Furthermore, causality-in-variance from stock returns to exchange rate changes is found in Japan and in the opposite direction in the euro area and Switzerland, whilst there is evidence of bidirectional causality-in-variance in the US and Canada. These findings imply limited opportunities for investors to diversify their assets during this period. The third essay, examined in the fourth chapter, considers the impact of net bond and net equity portfolio flows on exchange rate changes. Two-state Markov-switching models are estimated for the exchange rate of the US vis-a-vis Canada, the euro area, Japan and the UK. Our results suggest that the relationship between net portfolio flows and exchange rate changes is nonlinear for all cases considered, except that of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. The fourth essay, examined in the fifth chapter, considers the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows, namely net equity and net bond flows, as well as the dynamic linkages between exchange rate volatility and the variability of these two types of flows. Specifically, a bivariate GARCH-BEKK-in mean model is estimated using bilateral data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, the UK, Japan, Canada, the euro area, and Sweden over the period 1988:01-2011:12. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area, the UK and Sweden, and positive in Australia, whilst two countries (Canada and Japan) showed insignificant responses. With regard to the impact of uncertainty on net bond flows, it is shown to be negative in all countries, except Canada (where it is positive). Under the assumption of risk aversion, this suggests that exchange rate uncertainty induces investors, especially those of the counterpart countries to the US, to reduce their financing activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty. This evidence is strong for the UK, the euro area and Sweden as opposed to Canada, Australia and Japan. Furthermore, since exchange rate volatility and the variability of flows are interlinked, exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used to pursue economic and financial stability.

No description available.

Zugl.: Duisburg, Essen, Universiẗat, Diss., 2009.

Techn. Univ., Diss.--Berlin, 2004.

This essay focusses on the area of hegemonic studies in global politics, framing the discussion between the rise of China and the positioning of the united States. The purpose of this study is to show that China does not threaten the economic hegemony of the US due to the pivotal role the US Dollar holds in the global economy. A statistical analysis is undertaken with reference to contemporary theory to explain how declining rates of US Dollars in currency reserves are not a symptom of a power shift in Global Politics but simply an effect of fluctuations in global trade, as well as using Susan Strange's concept of structural power to show how America holds hegemony over international finance and the economy.