Bachelor-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2006.

This thesis is a portion of a novel manuscript. The novel is tentatively titled The Quiet Near the End of Our World. These 20 chapters introduce the readers to the four main characters: Mir Hamza Khan, Isaiah Khost, Toor Jan, and Daniel Bing. The machinations of Mir Hamza Khan result in a school attack in a rural village in Afghanistan that wounds Toor Jan. Toor Jan is admitted to an American hospital where he meets intelligence operative, Daniel Bing. Dan decides to use Toor Jan as a spy to bring Mir Hamza Khan to justice for the attacks but must first navigate the wishes of his commander Isaiah Khost. The four men collide in an explosive conflict where none of them are safe.

This dissertation presents an extension of the warlord competition models found in Skaperdas (2002) and Konrad and Skaperdas (2012). I consider two non-parasitic warlords located on a line. Each warlord allocates resources for the extraction of natural resources, the production of goods and services, and conflict with the opposing warlord. Within the symmetric rates of seizure model, I use three different forms of the contest success function, a primary tool in the conflict theory literature, in my analysis. I show that the warlord closer to the point of conflict will invest less into the hiring of warriors and more into the production of goods and services, yet wins a larger proportion of total goods and services produced within the economy. Under certain conditions, the placement of the point of conflict at the midpoint between the two warlords maximizes the total resources toward war and minimizes total production. Under the asymmetric rates of seizure model, I find that the warlord closer to the point of conflict invests more in warfare and less in production; that is, results that counter what is found in the symmetric model. / Economics

本論文實以盧永祥在直皖相爭過程中所扮演的角色為主軸進行探討，袁世凱去世後，直、皖二系即陷入角力戰，一直到第二次直奉戰爭以後，直、皖二系的角力戰方告結束，在此過程中盧永祥真可謂是直皖相爭中的皖系健將。 盧永祥出身於天津武備學堂而躋身軍旅，進而嶄露頭角。北洋派分裂後，盧氏因與段祺瑞性格相近，且對段至為仰慕，遂投身於皖系陣營。他在皖系全盛時期，因與另一皖系人物楊善德親善，兩人相繼坐擁上海、浙江，直系視他們為眼中釘。盧永祥因緣際會而坐擁上海，遂使盧氏與上海間的關係成為一個橫跨政治、經濟、社會的論題。直皖戰後，盧氏成為皖系碩果僅存的實力派督軍，段氏對之倚重更深，自此走入皖系的權力核心，對於皖系政策的制定深具影響力，而江浙戰爭的失敗導致盧氏地盤盡失，政治影響力漸失，盧氏的政、軍生涯就此譜上休止符。 本論文除緒論、結論外，共分四章： 第一章「直皖相爭中的皖系健將」，探討出身行伍，受教於北洋武備學堂（山海關分校）的盧永祥，如何崛起軍界？進而探討盧氏何以附段？且其如何為皖系張勢？分析盧永祥在上海時的政治態度，以及經營淞滬的重點所在，其中更針對他在松滬護軍使任內所承辦的遣送敵僑論題加以探討。 第二章「入主浙江」，首先探討直皖戰爭對盧永祥往後政治生涯所造成的衝擊，接著分析民初軍閥統治下的浙江政局，及盧氏在浙江的政績。盧氏他與地方勢力（菁英）、商人團體、地方軍隊的關係良窳影響其在浙江政權至深，為本章探討要點。而其如何在不違地方要求下，因應中央和地方的要求，使雙方均能稱意？最後分析盧永祥如何治軍，如何獲致經費以鞏固其權位。 第三章「變局中的肆應」，通章擬以盧氏在軍閥混戰中的肆應，來說明其政治手腕。從其倡議廢督裁兵、響應聯省自治，及其在反直三角同盟中的作用，分析其肆應變局的策略，進而揭示其背後所隱含的真意。正由於其具有高度靈活性，卒使輿論與其本身利益相結合，終能在軍閥間複雜結盟和永不休止的權力爭奪戰中屹立不搖。 第四章「江浙戰爭的衝擊」，江浙戰爭的爆發乃是利益衝突的結果。雙方所爭的是上海兵工廠、稅捐、海運與鴉片。本章大量利用《文史資料選輯》、《中華民國檔案資料匯編－軍事（三）》、上海公共租界工部局的《警務日報》，來舖陳影響盧永祥至大的江浙戰爭。分析戰前盧氏與鄰省軍閥的關係，以及為何在江蘇、浙江士紳和租界列強極力呼籲和平的情形下仍不免一戰的原因，並進一步說明盧氏在戰爭中的角色和敗亡的原因。 作者希望能在多方蒐集相關資料後，對盧永祥做公正而客觀的歷史定位，而不落入Diana Lary所謂「與研究者融為一體的危險」，或「透過研究對象來看軍閥主義時期的傾向」的困境中。

Vingt et un an après la création du Tribunal International pour le Rwanda et dix-sept ans après la signature du traité de Rome donnant naissance à la Cour pénale international, la fièvre dénonciatrice que connait cette institution n’est toujours pas apaisée. La CPI est-elle otage des idéaux qui justifient sa création et des forces politiques antagonistes auxquelles elle reste malgré tout liée ? Les africains commettraient-ils davantage de crime passibles de poursuites devant la Cour que les ressortissant d’autres continents ? Si l’étude des procédures judiciaires nées des crimes commis dans des conflits se déroulant sur le continent africain et l’analyse des procédures de mise en cause de certains Chefs d’Etats africains soulignent le très important travail de lutte contre l’impunité que réalise la Cour pénale internationale, le bilan de ce travail met toutefois en évidence la collision des procédures judiciaires avec des impératifs politiques internationaux. Ce travail de recherche montre que si la CPI se veut un prolongement de la sécurité collective, l’efficacité de son action et son universalisme sont aujourd’hui mise en doute, au point de cristalliser les rapports de l’organisme judiciaire international avec le continent africain. / Twenty-one year after the creation of the International Tribunal for Rwanda and seventeen years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome giving rise to the International Criminal Court, the whistleblower fever that knows this institution is still not appeased. Is the ICC hostage ideals that justified its creation and antagonistic political forces which it nevertheless remains bound? African they commit more crime prosecuted before the Court that the national of other continents? If the study of legal proceedings arising from crimes committed in conflicts taking place on the African continent and in the analysis of the party proceedings of some African Heads of States stress the very important work to fight against impunity that makes the International Criminal Court, the outcome of this work, however, shows the collision of legal proceedings with international political imperatives. This research shows that if the ICC is an expansion of collective security, the effectiveness of its action and universalism are now in doubt, as to crystallize the reports of the international judicial body with the mainland African.