Mozambique is one of the countries most affected by natural hazards in the world. Therefore it can benefit greatly from enhancements on its early warning system. Cell broadcast, which is a technology able to send simultaneous alert messages to all mobile phones in a geographical area has gained attention of emergency authorities since various catastrophes in the years 2000’s and increasing diffusion of the mobile network. This research has looked into the disaster risk management routines in Mozambique, interviewing relevant institutions, to identify the currently in use early warning system and analyze the circuit of information from detecting a hazard until the transmission of alert messages to the population. The goal of this research has been to identify how alert messages are sent to the population and, based on currently available infrastructure, analyze the possibilities to use Cell Broadcast to target alerts to all subscribers on specific geographic zones. It has been identified that the country already uses a solution that sends SMS to a list of phone numbers registered in a database. Nonetheless, telecommunication operators in the country are willing to cooperate with emergency authorities to design a solution in which Cell Broadcast can be used to strategically target alerts to subscribers at designated areas of risk. In this way, enabling enhanced accuracy and efficiency of the public alert system in Mozambique, with reduced time between detection and the simultaneously delivery of public alert messages to the entire population or only to people located on relevant geographic zones. Furthermore, the results also allowed to speculate on the viability of automated solutions, which can be used in combination to the enhancements that Cell Broadcast can bring to disaster risk management routines.

No description available.

Introduction: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict considerable damage to life and property every year. A major problem is that residents often hesitate to follow evacuation orders when the early warning messages are perceived as inaccurate or uninformative. The root problem is that providing accurate early forecasts can be difficult, especially in countries with less economic and technical means. Aim: The aim of the thesis is to investigate how cyclone early warning systems can be technically improved. This means, first, identifying problems associated with the current cyclone early warning systems, and second, investigating if biologically based Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are feasible to solve some of the identified problems. Method: First, for evaluating the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems, Bangladesh was selected as study area, where a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview were administered. Second, a review of currently operational TC track forecasting techniques was conducted to gain a better understanding of various techniques’ prediction performance, data requirements, and computational resource requirements. Third, a technique using biologically based ANNs was developed to produce TC track and intensity forecasts. Systematic testing was used to find optimal values for simulation parameters, such as feature-detector receptive field size, the mixture of unsupervised and supervised learning, and learning rate schedule. Five types of 2D data were used for training. The networks were tested on two types of novel data, to assess their generalization performance. Results: A major problem that is identified in the thesis is that the meteorologists at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department are currently not capable of providing accurate TC forecasts. This is an important contributing factor to residents’ reluctance to evacuate. To address this issue, an ANN-based TC track and intensity forecasting technique was developed that can produce early and accurate forecasts, uses freely available satellite images, and does not require extensive computational resources to run. Bidirectional connections, combined supervised and unsupervised learning, and a deep hierarchical structure assists the parallel extraction of useful features from five types of 2D data. The trained networks were tested on two types of novel data: First, tests were performed with novel data covering the end of the lifecycle of trained cyclones; for these test data, the forecasts produced by the networks were correct in 91-100% of the cases. Second, the networks were tested with data of a novel TC; in this case, the networks performed with between 30% and 45% accuracy (for intensity forecasts). Conclusions: The ANN technique developed in this thesis could, with further extensions and up-scaling, using additional types of input images of a greater number of TCs, improve the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems in countries with less economic and technical means. The thesis work also creates opportunities for further research, where biologically based ANNs can be employed for general-purpose weather forecasting, as well as for forecasting other severe weather phenomena, such as thunderstorms.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of History / Mark P. Parillo / The Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line, a key program under President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s “New Look” policy, prepared the United States defense posture for “the long haul” in the Cold War. Eisenhower wanted to prevent the escalation of military costs while still providing an adequate defense. Eisenhower emphasized a retaliatory capability and improved continental defenses, the so-called “sword and shield,” which are key features of the New Look. The DEW Line would prove to be a vital component of both. Whereas the initial emphasis of the DEW Line was to warn against attack providing for both active and passive defense measures, soon there was a definite “counter-offensive” role for the DEW Line as well—the protection of the primary retaliatory capability of the United States: the Strategic Air Command (SAC). The place of the DEW Line in the history of the Cold War has been an under appreciated topic. With the exception of the scholarship from the 1950s and early 1960s, only recently have continental defense and particularly the DEW Line been removed from the shadows of other Cold War events, strategies, and military programs. This doctoral thesis is an account of the DEW Line’s conception, implementation, and position in Eisenhower’s New Look and deterrent strategy. The DEW Line proved to be a cardinal feature of Eisenhower’s New Look strategy: it strengthened overall U.S. defenses and defense posture as the one element of U.S. defense policy (“New Look”) that improved and connected both the active and passive measures of continental defense by providing early warning against manned bombers flying over the polar region; it bolstered the deterrent value of SAC; and it was instrumental in developing closer peacetime military cooperation between the United States and Canada. In fact, U.S.- Canadian diplomacy during the 1950s offers an important case study in “superpowermiddle power” interaction. However, despite the asymmetry in their relationship, U.S.- Canadian defense policies proved to be analogous. All of these objectives could not have been accomplished without the technological and logistical abilities necessary to construct successfully the DEW Line.

Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Benennung von Anforderungen an eine IT-basierte Forschungs-und Betriebsplattform zur Unterstützung eines Frühwarnsystems, welches Defizite bei der Zusammenarbeit und Kommunikation von Kooperationspartnern in virtuellen Unternehmen (VU) frühzeitig erkennen und Optionen zur Beseitigung dieser Defizite anbieten soll. Bestandteile dieser Plattform sind web-basierte adaptive Fragebögen und ein elektronisches Kommunikationstagebuch. Neben der Darstellung von Anforderungen an diese Softwarewerkzeuge erfolgt eine konzeptionelle Beschreibung ihrer Funktionsweise. Die Entwicklung des Frühwarnsystems erfolgt im Rahmen des interdisziplinären Projekts @VirtU [1]. Der Fokus der Forschungsarbeiten liegt dabei u. a. auf der Betrachtung von Motivationsfaktoren für die Teamarbeit, der Teamkommunikation und dem Informationsaustausch zwischen den Partnern in einem VU. Im Rahmen von @VirtU werden VU als eine Kooperationsform voneinander unabhängiger Wertschöpfungseinheiten angesehen, in welcher das Managementprinzip der „virtual organization“ (vgl. Mowshowitz [2]) umgesetzt wird. Gegenstand des zu entwickelnden Frühwarnsystems sind VU im engeren Sinne, d. h. die Missionsnetzwerke, in denen der Wertschöpfungsprozess stattfindet (vgl. Neumann, Meyer [3] in diesem Band).

This essay studies the national parliaments' reasoned opinions at the early warning mechanism. The study aim to declare if there is any variation in which national parliaments who is active in the early warning mechanism, and if there is a variation in type of bills in the early warning mechanism. These study also wants to describe some variation in how the national parliaments argued in the reasoned opinions. The study gives an enhanced understanding of the importance and legitimacy of the early warning mechanism and the reasoned opinions. The result shows that there is a certain group of parliaments who are more active and these are with few exceptions EU 15 countries. The study also shows that there is some kind of bills that is more prevalent than others, there is however some variation. There is also a wide variation in the arguments raised in the reasoned opinions. The results indicate that the national parliaments varies greatly in managing the reasoned opinions and it gives a negatively impacton the early warning mechanism. / Studien granskar de nationella parlamentens motiverade yttranden inom ramen för EU:s subsidiaritetsgranskning. Studiens syfte är att beskriva en möjlig variation angående  vilka nationella parlamenten som är aktiva inom subsidiaritetsgranskningen. Studiens syfte är även att beskriva variationen i vilka lagförslag som återfinns i subsidiaritetsgrankningen, samt om de nationella parlamenten varierar i  argumentering i de motiverade yttrandena. Studien visar att det finns nationella parlament som är vanligare förekommande inom granskningen, samt att vissa typer av lagförslag föranleder fler yttranden än andra. Beträffande argumenteringen i de motiverade yttrandena fanns en stor variation.

Water is one of the most precious but least valued common property resource. Efficient ways of water resources management are vital to socio-economic development and the overall feat of societal stability. However, water conflicts have further exacerbated the access to water especially in low-income developing countries. Most notably, little attention has been given to studying water conflicts at the local level when compared to international water conflicts. As a result, there is insufficient information and theory on the exponentially increasing number of local water conflicts. In the Middle East, water was a tool for military purposes; in Asia disputes over water occur due to development-related activities, whilst in Africa, control over water resources has been the root cause of many conflicts affecting millions of vulnerable communities. This research investigates the nature, causes and dimensions of local water conflicts in the context of low-income developing countries based on the Afar region, which is located in the Awash Trans-regional River Basin of Ethiopia. The research suggests a new multidimensional approach for pre-identification, early warning services and local water conflict neutralization. This approach also introduces preparedness techniques, which play a significant role in reducing potential risks and tensions that trigger local water conflicts between communities sharing the same water resources. The study further proposes a policy guideline matrix that would serve as a technique for reducing local water conflicts by providing new ways of thinking about the links between sustainable developments, local water conflict management and strategic partnerships. The research is implemented through the process of designing a framework based on essential theoretical and practical findings supported by survey data of 134 household representatives of local communities and 26 institutions, together with 22 interviews. The introduced multipurpose framework is based on five fundamental parameters, namely: contribution to Sustainable Development, Information, Preparedness, Tolerance Capacity and Interaction (DIPTI). The research proposes the Sparkling Effects of Conflict , a new approach in understanding and predicting the coverage of the effects of conflicts other than the primary conflicting parties and conflict location. In addition, two pillars of the conceptual frameworks emerged from the findings. First, the WEC (Water, Early Warning and Conflict) information pyramid, a framework designed to indicate the core components of local WEC-related information identification and management. Second, the Pillars of Conflict Pyramid, the simplest conceptual framework, easily helps to pre-identify the effects of local water conflicts with certain limitations. Besides, the study addressed six additional conflict neutralization and resolution inputs that incorporate the significance of the participation of women and other vulnerable members of communities. These findings also highlight the advantage of co-existence between useful traditional and modern practices in neutralizing conflicts. Overall, the study will assist local people, policy and decision makers and institutions in low-income developing countries with a similar context to that of the study area.

<p>U ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji dat je predlog dizajna algoritma i metodologije za procenu indikatora suše &ndash; MEPIS. Istraživanje metoda praćenja suše obuhvatilo je tri tradicionalna indikatora i jedan novo formirani. Sve ukupno analizirano je 16 varijacija četiri odabrana indeksa suše period istraživanja obuhvatio je 62 godine, 1951-2012. Analize indikatora ukazale su na opravdanost menjanja pristupa pristupa problematici suše i odstupanja od stohastičkog razmatranja njene pojave i pristupanja termodinamičkim osnovama suše. Modelovanje suše po analogiji sa procesom sušenja vazduhom pokazalo je zadovoljavajuće rezultate i kao agregat ovog pristupa dobijen je IDEA indeks za praćenje uslova koji pogoduju suši. Kao indeks suše koji se striktno bazira na simulaciji fizičkih procesa ukazuje na mogućnost definisanja fizičkog stanja atmosfere koji odgovara stanju suše i korak je ka uniformnoj fizičkoj definiciji suše na osnovu uslova koji je uzrokuju. MEPIS u svojoj punoj formi bi dao dovoljno argumenata da se određeni indeksi koriste operativno i mogao bi opravdati neophodne investicije u tehničke i ljudske resurse.</p> / <p>In this doctoral dissertation have been proposed the designs of the algorithm and<br />methodology for drought indicator assessment &ndash;MEPIS. Methods of drought<br />monitoring were assessed. Three traditional drought indicators and one newly<br />developed were investigated. In total 16 variations of four selected drought indicators<br />were analyzed. Research covered period of 62 years, from 1951-2012. Analyses have<br />resulted with justification that approach to the drought problem should be changed<br />from stochastic to the one based on thermodynamics of drought. Modelling of drought<br />in analogy with air drying has shown satisfactory results and as an aggregate of this<br />approach was obtained IDEA drought indicator. Developed indicator showed<br />significant progress in identifying meteorological conditions that favor the development<br />of drought. It proves it is possible to define physical conditions that correspond to the<br />state of drought. It is step forward to uniform definition of drought phenomena. MEPIS<br />in its full form would give enough arguments to make decision about usage of tested<br />drought indicators and could justify the necessary investments in the technical and<br />human resources.</p>

Ground motions caused by earthquakes may be strong enough to cause destruction of infrastructure and possibly casualties. If such past destructive earthquakes are analysed, the gained information could be used to develop earthquake warning systems that predicts and possibly reduce the damage potential of further earthquakes. The Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) runs an automated early warning system that attempts to predict the damage of an earthquake that just got recorded, and forward the predictions to relevant government agencies. The predictions are based on, e.g. earthquake magnitude, source depth and an estimate of the size of affected human population. The purpose of this thesis is to introduce an additional parameter: earthquake intensity, which is a measure of the intensity with which the ground shakes. Based on this, a new earthquake hazard scheme, the Intensity Based Earthquake Classification (IBEC) scheme, is created. This scheme suggests alternate methods, relative to SNSN, of how earthquake classifications can be made. These methods will use an intensity database established by modelling scenario earthquakes in the open-source software ShakeMap by the U.S. Geological Survey. The database consists of scenarios on the intervals: 4.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 9.0 and 10 ≤ depth ≤ 150 kilometre, and covers the whole intensity scale, Modified Mercalli Intensity, 1.0 ≤ Imm ≤ 10.0. The IBEC classification scheme also enabled the creation of the 'Population-to-Area' criterion. It improves prediction of earthquakes that struck isolated cities, located in e.g. valleys in large mountainous areas and deserts. Even though such earthquakes are relatively uncommon, once they occur, they may cause great damage as many cities in such regions around the world often are less developed regarding resistance to ground motions. / Markrörelser orsakade av jordbävningar kan va starka nog att skada vår infrastruktur och orsaka dödsoffer. Genom att analysera forna destruktiva jordbävningar och utveckla program som försöker att förutsäga deras inverkan så kan den potentiella skada minskas. Svenska Nationella Seismiska Nätet (SNSN) driver ett automatiserat tidigt varningssystem som försöker förutsäga skadorna som följer en jordbävning som precis spelats in, och vidarebefodra denna information till relevanta myndigheter. Förutsägelserna är baserade på, t.ex. jordbävnings-magnitud och djup samt uppskattning av mänsklig population i det påverkade området. Syftet med denna avhandlingen är att introducera ytterligare en parameter: jordbävnings-intensitet, som är ett mått av intensiteten i markrörelserna. Baserat på detta skapas ett jordbävnings-schema kallat Intensity Based Earthquake Classification (IBEC). Detta schema föreslår alternativa metoder, relativt SNSN, för hur jordbävnings-klassificering kan göras. Dessa metoder använder sig av en intensitets-databas etablerad genom modellering av jordbävning-scenarios i open source-\linebreak programmet ShakeMap, skapat av U.S. Geological Survey. Databasen består av scenarior över intervallen 4.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 9.0 och 10 ≤ djup ≤ 150 kilometer, vilka täcker hela intensitetsskalan, Modified Mercalli Intensity, 1.0 ≤ Imm ≤ 10.0. IBECs klassificeringsschema har även möjliggjort skapandet av "Population-mot-Area"-kriteriet. Detta förbättrar förutsägelsen av jordbävningar som träffar isolerade städer, placerade i t.ex. dalgångar i stora bergskjedjor och öknar. Även om denna typ av jordbävningar är relativt ovanliga så orsakar dom ofta enorm skada då sådana här städer ofta är mindre utvecklade rörande byggnaders motstånd mot markrörelser.

Organisations such as governments and healthcare bodies are increasingly responsible for managing large amounts of personal information, and the increasing complexity of modern information systems is causing growing concerns about the protection of these assets from insider threats. Insider threats are very difficult to handle, because the insiders have direct access to information and are trusted by their organisations. The nature of insider privacy breaches varies with the organisation’s acceptable usage policy and the attributes of an insider. However, the level of risk that insiders pose depends on insider breach scenarios including their access patterns and contextual information, such as timing of access. Protection from insider threats is a newly emerging research area, and thus, only few approaches are available that systemise the continuous monitoring of dynamic insider usage characteristics and adaptation depending on the level of risk. The aim of this research is to develop a formal framework for an adaptive early warning and response system for insider privacy breaches within dynamic software systems. This framework will allow the specification of multiple policies at different risk levels, depending on event patterns, timing constraints, and the enforcement of adaptive response actions, to interrupt insider activity. Our framework is based on Usage Control (UCON), a comprehensive model that controls previous, ongoing, and subsequent resource usage. We extend UCON to include interrupt policy decisions, in which multiple policy decisions can be expressed at different risk levels. In particular, interrupt policy decisions can be dynamically adapted upon the occurrence of an event or over time. We propose a computational model that represents the concurrent behaviour of an adaptive early warning and response system in the form of statechart. In addition, we propose a Privacy Breach Specification Language (PBSL) based on this computational model, in which event patterns, timing constraints, and the triggered early warning level are expressed in the form of policy rules. The main features of PBSL are its expressiveness, simplicity, practicality, and formal semantics. The formal semantics of the PBSL, together with a model of the mechanisms enforcing the policies, is given in an operational style. Enforcement mechanisms, which are defined by the outcomes of the policy rules, influence the system state by mutually interacting between the policy rules and the system behaviour. We demonstrate the use of this PBSL with a case study from the e-government domain that includes some real-world insider breach scenarios. The formal framework utilises a tool that supports the animation of the enforcement and policy models. This tool also supports the model checking used to formally verify the safety and progress properties of the system over the policy and the enforcement specifications.