This diploma thesis deals with the topic of Early Warning Systems (EWS), a key part of conflict prevention. It applies a model of quantitative analysis of international media outputs on the case of the Mali insurgency in January 2012. As an EWS tool, it analyzes international media represented by the major global press agencies. The main goal of the thesis is to answer the following research question: Did the international media manage to anticipate the outbreak of the conflict in Mali? The answer should also show whether international media can detect growing tensions leading to a conflict and therefore whether they could be used as an EWS tool. The application of the model should, observing the period from August 2011 to the beginning of the insurgency on January 17, 2012, prove whether the conflict could have been anticipated. In order to contextualize the model, structural factors of instability were identified in the discussion of the dynamics of the conflict that has been repeating itself for dozens of years. A discourse analysis of international media during the observed period was also presented on the background of the securitization theory of the Copenhagen school of security studies. The discourse analysis and the quantitative EWS model have both shown that international media have not...

Drivers' mistakes in making immediate decision facing yellow signal interval to stop or go through the intersection is one of main factors contributing to intersection's safety. Incorrect decision might lead to a red light running and a right-angle Collison when passing through the intersection or a rear-end collision when failing to stop safely.Improperly timed traffic signal intervals result in the inability of the drivers to make the right decision and can place them in the dilemma zone. Advance warning systems (AWS) have been used to provide information about the downstream traffic signal change prior to approaching the intersection. On the other hand, advance warning systems increase drivers approach speed according to the literature. However, effect of AWS on dilemma zone has not been studied before. The goal of this thesis is to minimize the number of vehicles caught in dilemma zone by determining more precise boundaries for dilemma zone and to reduce the number of red light violations by predicting the red light runners before arriving to the intersection. Here, dilemma zone boundaries at the presence of AWS has been reexamined with the aid of a large dataset (more than 1870 hours of data for two different intersections). Upper dilemma zone boundaries found to be higher for the intersections with AWS. This is due to vehicles' increasing the speed at the flashing yellow sings to escape the dilemma zone.Moreover, an algorithm for predicting red light runners and distinguishing them from right turners is presented. / Master of Science

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Climate change, a reality, a myth, a conspiracy, remains a point of research and concern, specifically with regards to the impact it has on human health. Reports concerning climate change are accepted by many but are also rejected by prominent figures of society and powerful enterprises flourishing in the race for economic development. Yet all living organisms on Earth are dependent on its natural resources and delicate balance of co-existence. A disruption of ecological balance will bring about changes to biomes and niches. These changes will affect disease patterns and well-being for all. Vulnerable groups will be most affected. If these changes have occurred and continue to occur what provision should be made to reduce population vulnerability? What investment should be made to public healthcare to assist vulnerable population groups and improve adaptability? This study was conducted with the aide of the South African Red Cross Society in three large South African provinces, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Kwa-Zulu Natal, each known for its rich diverse ecologies and tropical to sub-tropical climates. The study aimed to determine the level of awareness amongst the healthcare workers with emphasis on education. The participants were counsellors working closely with the National Department of Health and local clinics. A total of 101 participants completed a close-ended questionnaire. The results indicated a strong workforce of young people with post-matric qualifications and strong views. Qualitative research was used with descriptive statistics to analyse and describe the data collected. It was, therefore, recommended that investment be made into this growing workforce in healthcare, as well as healthcare as a whole, since climate change, as documented, will threaten food security and water availability, see altered diseases patterns including emerging and re-emergence of infectious diseases and cardiovascular concerns brought on by heat stress. Funding must support education and training to strengthen awareness and preparedness so as to empower this workforce so that they may assist local populations to better adapt to the changes, become more resilient and, thereby, reduce their vulnerability and risk / Health Studies / M.Sc. (Life Sciences)

The analysis and identification of texture is a key area in image processing and computer vision. One of the most prominent texture analysis algorithms is the Gabor Filter. These filters are used by convolving an image with a family of self similar filters or wavelets through the selection of a suitable number of scales and orientations, which are responsible for aiding in the identification of textures of differing coarseness and directions respectively. While extensively used in a variety of applications, including, biometrics such as iris and facial recognition, their effectiveness depend largely on the manual selection of different parameters values, i.e. the centre frequency, the number of scales and orientations, and the standard deviations. Previous studies have been conducted on how to determine optimal values. However the results are sometimes inconsistent and even contradictory. Furthermore, the selection of the mask size and tile size used in the convolution process has received little attention, presumably since they are image set dependent. This research attempts to verify specific claims made in previous studies about the influence of the number of scales and orientations, but also to investigate the variation of the filter mask size and tile size for water body extraction from satellite imagery. Optical satellite imagery may contain texture samples that are conceptually the same (belong to the same class), but are structurally different or differ due to changes in illumination, i.e. a texture may appear completely different when the intensity or position of a light source changes. A systematic testing of the effects of varying the parameter values on optical satellite imagery is conducted. Experiments are designed to verify claims made about the influence of varying the scales and orientations within predetermined ranges, but also to show the considerable changes in classification accuracy when varying the filter mask and tile size. Heuristic techniques such as Genetic Algorithms (GA) can be used to find optimum solutions in application domains where an enumeration approach is not feasible. Hence, the effectiveness of a GA to automate the process of determining optimum Gabor filter parameter values for a given image dataset is also investigated. The results of the research can be used to facilitate the selection of Gabor filter parameters for applications that involve multi-textured image segmentation or classification, and specifically to guide the selection of appropriate filter mask and tile sizes for automated analysis of satellite imagery. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2012.

Climate change, a reality, a myth, a conspiracy, remains a point of research and concern, specifically with regards to the impact it has on human health. Reports concerning climate change are accepted by many but are also rejected by prominent figures of society and powerful enterprises flourishing in the race for economic development. Yet all living organisms on Earth are dependent on its natural resources and delicate balance of co-existence. A disruption of ecological balance will bring about changes to biomes and niches. These changes will affect disease patterns and well-being for all. Vulnerable groups will be most affected. If these changes have occurred and continue to occur what provision should be made to reduce population vulnerability? What investment should be made to public healthcare to assist vulnerable population groups and improve adaptability? This study was conducted with the aide of the South African Red Cross Society in three large South African provinces, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Kwa-Zulu Natal, each known for its rich diverse ecologies and tropical to sub-tropical climates. The study aimed to determine the level of awareness amongst the healthcare workers with emphasis on education. The participants were counsellors working closely with the National Department of Health and local clinics. A total of 101 participants completed a close-ended questionnaire. The results indicated a strong workforce of young people with post-matric qualifications and strong views. Qualitative research was used with descriptive statistics to analyse and describe the data collected. It was, therefore, recommended that investment be made into this growing workforce in healthcare, as well as healthcare as a whole, since climate change, as documented, will threaten food security and water availability, see altered diseases patterns including emerging and re-emergence of infectious diseases and cardiovascular concerns brought on by heat stress. Funding must support education and training to strengthen awareness and preparedness so as to empower this workforce so that they may assist local populations to better adapt to the changes, become more resilient and, thereby, reduce their vulnerability and risk / Health Studies / M.Sc. (Life Sciences)

As a result of the United Nations’ International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990-2000), and recent high profile disasters, disaster risk reduction has climbed high on the international political agenda. There has been a paradigm shift from reacting to disasters towards preparing for and mitigating effects of disasters. Among the measures that have been highlighted on the disaster risk reduction agenda are early warning systems. In a Swedish context, there are needs for early warnings for various flood risk types. Municipalities carry big responsibilities for managing flood risks, and early warnings have a potential to facilitate decision-making and ultimately reduce flood losses. The aim of this thesis is to describe how a variety of flood warning signals are used in the risk management process of Swedish municipalities, how they can contribute to the flood risk reducing process, and which factors influence the success of this. The thesis is based on two papers. Paper I is based on interviews with three respondents from Swedish municipalities that have invested in and established local early warning systems. The paper shows that the possible effects from a local early warning system are not only reduced flood losses but also potential spinoff, the occurrence of which is dependent on the well-being of the organisation and its risk management processes. Paper II is based on interviews with 23 respondents at 18 Swedish municipalities, who have responsibilities related to flood risk management, and one respondent who works at SMHI with hydrological warning. The paper shows that municipalities can use a variety of complementary flood warning signals to facilitate decision-making for a proactive flood response. This is however not systematically the case, and is dependent on available resources. The theoretical contribution of this thesis is a development of existing conceptual models of early warning systems with respect to risk management and system contexts, and the use of complementary warning signals. / Following the United Nations’ International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990-2000), and recent high profile disasters, disaster risk reduction has climbed high on the international political agenda. Among the measures that have been highlighted are early warning systems – for Swedish municipalities who are responsible for managing flood risks, early warnings have a potential to facilitate decision-making and ultimately reduce flood losses. This licentiate thesis, based on two articles, aims to describe how a variety of flood warning signals are used in the risk management process of Swedish municipalities, how they can contribute to the flood risk reducing process, and which factors influence the success of this. The articles show that the possible effects from a local early warning system are not only reduced flood losses but also potential spin-off benefits, the occurrence of which is dependent on factors such as organisational culture and the functioning of the wider risk management system, and that municipalities can use a variety of complementary flood warning signals to facilitate decision-making for a proactive flood response which, however, is not systematically the case as benefits are dependent on available resources.

De Förenta Nationernas Agenda 2030 fastställer som ett delmål att säkerställa utbildning av hög kvalitet och främja livslångt lärande för alla som en del av arbetet för ett mer hållbart samhälle. Vikten av detta delmål blir särskilt tydlig i och med det observerbara sambandet mellan en fullständig gymnasieexamen och allmän hälsa i Sverige; gymnasiestudenter som går ut med en gymnasieexamen tenderar att erhålla bättre allmän hälsa. Learning Analytics är ett relativt nytt område inom utbildningsvetenskaplig forskning som syftar till att förbättra utbildning med hjälp av elevdata. Detta arbete undersökte vilken möjlig påverkan och begränsningar som förekommer vid implementering av en multipel linjär regressionsmodell utvecklad för en matematikkurs i en gymnasieskola. Vid utvecklingen av denna modell fastställdes tre signifikanta indikatorer för att förutsäga elevernas slutbetyg; Diagnos resultat,resultat på nationella proven och frånvaro. Prognosmodellen har utvärderats statistiskt varpå den visade sig vara tillförlitlig i 90% av bedömningarna, vilket inte är tillräckligt säkert för att användas i verkliga bedömningstillfällen eftersom lärare kräver att resultaten är obestridliga. Genom en fokusgruppsintervju med lärare granskas dessa resultat och deltagarna uttrycker sitt intresse för prognosmodeller tillsammans med en reflektion över elevers potentiella negativa reaktioner på en ogynnsam prognos. Utvärdering av modellen visar att den i dagsläget har en rimlig förmåga att förutsäga elevers slutbetyg men att det finns ett starkt behov av insamling av mer nyanserade data för att öka möjligheten till innovation i framtida arbeten / The 2030 Agenda establishes the goal to ensure quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all. The importance of this goal becomes particularly clear when taking into account the link between upper secondary school graduation and general health in Sweden; Upper secondary school graduates tend to have better general health. Learning Analytics is a relatively new area of education research which aims to improve education using student data. This report examines the possible impact and limitations when implementing a multiple linear regression model developed for a mathematics course in an upper secondary school. In developing this model, three major indicators are established to be significant in predicting students' final grade; Diagnosis results, national test results and the amount of student absence. The model was statistically evaluated and found to be reliable in 90% of cases, which is not secure enough to be used in real assessment situations as teachers require the results to be indisputable. Through a focus group interview with teachers these results are evaluated and the participants establish their interest in predictive tools along with concerns for students' negative reactions to poor results. Evaluation of the model shows it has a reasonable ability to anticipate students' final grades but with a strong need for improvement in data collection methods and acquisition of more nuanced data to support greater possibility for innovation in future works.

The electric utility companies that own and/or operate the nation’s 112 licensed commercial nuclear power reactors are required by federal law to provide emergency information to residents living around those plants in advance of a nuclear plant emergency. This requires the owner/operators to acknowledge certain risks (e.g., radiation, nuclear plant accidents, evacuation, etc.) that face people living near nuclear generating plants. This dissertation critiques the effectiveness of pre-emergency risk communication strategies by nuclear utilities. Specifically, the dissertation demonstrates that certain historic message themes about nuclear power- termed the "nuclear ethic" -have become embedded in the rhetoric of current nuclear risk communication programs and downplay or mask the seriousness of nuclear plant emergencies, thereby contributing to the apparent ineffectiveness of these communication programs. For example, a survey of residents living around four nuclear plants who receive utility risk communication materials found that nearly two-thirds said they would not follow official instructions in a nuclear plant emergency. Such promotional rhetoric and images remain a part of nuclear risk communication programs because agencies which regulate nuclear power delegate their responsibility for pre-emergency risk communication to the utilities operating the plants. Moreover, there is little involvement in pre-emergency nuclear risk communication by state and local governments. This suggests that risk communication serves a latent symbolic role rather than a functional role for both the regulatory agencies and the utilities by making both groups appear to be isomorphic with societal goals of safety and security for a risky technology. The dissertation concludes by suggesting federal regulatory agencies, and specifically the Federal Emergency Management Agency, intensify their vigilance of risk communication planning and take steps to create authentic two-way communication between the nuclear utilities and the public living near the plants. One way this could be done is by establishing local citizens advisory committees to assess utility risk communication programs and suggest improvements that would help bridge the gap between the nuclear industry’s view of nuclear plant risk and that of the public. / Ph. D.

L’auteure traite des stratagèmes de propriété occulte et de vote vide orchestrés par l’entremise des instruments dérivés. Dans un premier temps, cette recherche expose les diverses perturbations occasionnées par ces stratagèmes sur le système d’alerte et de notification ainsi que sur le droit corporatif canadien. Pour illustrer ces propos, une revue de la jurisprudence est détaillée. De plus, de nombreuses solutions législatives sont proposées afin de pallier aux utilisations potentiellement abusives des instruments dérivés. La solution la mieux adaptée au contexte des marchés financiers canadiens est finalement sélectionnée. / The research paper herein deals with hidden morphable ownership schemes and empty voting strategies orchestrated through derivatives. Initially, the author exposes the various disturbances caused by these schemes on early warning systems and follows up with repercussions that reverberate through to the Canadian corporate laws framework. Detailed case reviews are also presented to highlight the practical implications of these aforementioned schemes. Legislative solutions to mitigate the potential misuse of derivatives are proposed and ultimately the preferred solution tailored to Canadian financial markets is selected.