The recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent recession have prompted renewed interest into how banking regulation and fluctuations in the financial sector impact the business cycle. Using three different model setups, this thesis promotes a further understanding and identification of the various transmission channels through which regulatory changes and volatility in the financial system link to the real economy. Chapter 1 examines the effects of bank capital requirements in a simple macroeconomic model with credit market frictions. A bank capital channel is introduced through a monitoring incentive effect of bank capital buffers on the repayment probability, which affects the loan rate behaviour via the risk premium. We also identify a collateral channel, which mitigates moral hazard behaviour by firms, and therefore raises their repayment probability. Basel I and Basel II regulatory regimes are then defined, with a distinction made between the Standardized and Foundation Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approaches of Basel II. We analyse the role of the bank capital and collateral channels in the transmission of supply shocks, and show that depending on the strength of these channels, the loan rate can either amplify or mitigate the effects of productivity shocks. Finally, the impact of the two channels also determines which of the regulatory regimes is most procyclical. Chapter 2 studies the interactions between bank capital regulation and the real business cycle in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework with financial frictions, along with endogenous risk of default at the firm and bank capital levels. We show that in a model which accounts for bank capital risk and regulatory requirements, the endogenous risk of default produces an accelerator effect and impacts the loan rate and the real economy through multiple channels. Furthermore, the simulations illustrate that a risk sensitive regulatory regime (Basel II) amplifies the response of macroeconomic and financial variables following supply, monetary and financial shocks, with the strength of the key transmission channels depending on the nature of the shock. The impact of higher regulatory requirements (as proposed under Basel III) is also examined and is shown to increase procyclicality in the financial system and real economy. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between loan loss provisions and business cycle fluctuations in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit market imperfections. With a backward-looking provisioning system, provisions are triggered by past due payments (or nonperforming loans), which, in turn, depend on current economic conditions and the loan loss reserves-loan ratio. With a forward-looking system, both past due payments and expected losses over the whole business cycle are accounted for, and provisions are smoothed over the cycle. Numerical experiments based on a parameterized version of the model show that holding more provisions can reduce the procyclicality of the financial system. However, a forward-looking provisioning regime can increase or lower procyclicality, depending on whether holding more loan loss reserves translates into a higher or lower fraction of nonperforming loans.

La maitrise de l’orthographe du français, l’une des plus complexes du monde, relève d’enjeux sociaux forts. Dans ce cadre, les accords représentent un enjeu d’apprentissage essentiel car ils rendent visibles les liens entre les mots ; ils relèvent certes de la connaissance de règles, mais aussi d’une intelligence du fonctionnement de langue. Leur complexité en fait une zone de très grande difficulté. La compréhension des difficultés qu’éprouvent les élèves à réaliser les accords grammaticaux ne peut se passer ni d’un examen des mécanismes linguistiques qui les régissent, ni d’une attention portée aux processus mis en œuvre par les scripteurs. C’est donc à partir d’une réflexion linguistique, psycholinguistique et didactique que cette thèse défend l’hypothèse que, d’une part, l’apprentissage des accords au sein du groupe nominal et celui des accords entre sujet et verbe doivent être disjoints et que, d’autre part, le travail de l’orthographe doit conduire, progressivement, les élèves à élargir l’empan de texte sur lequel faire porter l’attention, le cadre phrastique étant le plus pertinent pour l’apprentissage des accords. Il convient donc d’étendre la zone de réalisation des accords au moyen de procédures visant à complexifier les phrases, qui permettent un travail conjoint de l’orthographe et de la production. En associant dans des séquences de travail en cycle 3 des activités d’apprentissage de l’orthographe grammaticale et des activités de complexification syntaxique dans des productions écrites, l’expérimentation a montré qu’il était possible de faire progresser les élèves dans le domaine de l’orthographe et d’en tirer bénéfice lors de la production d’écrit. / Mastering French spelling is governed by major social issues, particularly as it is one of the more complex systems in the world. In this respect, linguistic agreements represent an integral part of the learning process because they highlight how words are connected; not only are they understood through a knowledge of grammatical rules, but also a keen awareness of how language works. Their complexity makes them a highly challenging subject matter. Their complexity makes it an area of great difficulty.Understanding of the difficulties students have in realizing grammatical agreements can not do without an examination of the linguistic mechanisms that govern them, nor of an attention paid to the processes implemented by the writers. It is on the basis of a linguistic, psycholinguistic and didactic reflection that this thesis defends the hypothesis that, on the one hand, the learning of agreements within the nominal group and that of the agreements between subject and verb must be disjoint and that, on the other hand, the work of spelling should gradually lead the pupils to enlarge the span of text on which to draw attention, the phrastic framework being most relevant for learning the agreements. It is therefore appropriate to extend the area of implementation of the agreements by means of procedures designed to make the sentences more complex, allowing joint spelling and production work. By combining learning activities in grammatical spelling and syntactic complexification activities in written productions in cycle 3 workflows, experimentation has shown that it is possible to advance students in the field of the spelling and benefit from it when producing writing.

Les conséquences des multiples menaces environnementales étant devenues largement observables et les pays en développement étant les plus vulnérables, une coopération internationale s'impose pour trouver des solutions efficaces à ces menaces touchant à l'intérêt commun. Comment organiser une coopération universelle entre des Etats qui diffèrent tant dans leurs responsabilités dans la création et la permanence des problèmes que dans leur vulnérabilité et leurs ressources et capacités de réactions ? Le droit international ne pouvait qu'avoir un rôle à jouer dans la construction de cette perspective universaliste. Il est devenu l'outil de préservation de l'environnement, au bénéfice de tous les Etats et le traitement différencié, notamment exprimé par le principe des responsabilités communes mais différenciées, s'est imposé comme base de cette coopération, créant un statut particulier pour certains Etats dans les accords. La différenciation dépasse cependant le cadre du seul principe pour essaimer dans toute la matière sous des expressions et par des moyens très divers ; gages supposés d'une meilleure mise en oeuvre des accords multilatéraux. Or, le constat inquiétant de la dégradation de l'environnement global laisse planer un doute quant à l'efficacité de la technique. En outre, le flou sur le contenu des catégories étatiques et les multiples différenciations possibles au sein même de ces catégories complexifient la construction et le rôle du droit international dans ce domaine. Il importe donc de revenir avec précision sur la définition, les acquis et faiblesse du traitement différencié en tant qu'outil de mise en oeuvre des accords multilatéraux environnementaux / The consequences major environmental threats have now become largely visible and developing countries are the most vulnerable to them. Given the scale of the situation, international cooperation appears necessary to find effective solutions to threats affecting common interests. But how can universal cooperation be organized between countries suffering from differences in terms of responsibilities in the emergence and perpetuation of the problem and of vulnerability, resources and capacities to react to such threats? International law was a tool to be used in the construction of this universal perspective. Thus, it has become a major bias to preserve the environment, for the benefit of all countries and differential treatment, expressed inter alia by the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, imposed itself as the basis of this cooperation, creating special status for the benefit of certain countries in environmental regimes.However, differential treatment exceeds the framework of this principle and appears under various expressions and ways of implementation. This diversity is supposed to help ensuring better compliance with environmental agreements. Yet, the actual degradation of the global environment casts a shade over the effectiveness of the technique. Meanwhile, the blurry frontier between states categories and the multiple possible differentiations inside each category complicate both the construction and role of international law in this area. Then, it appears necessary to come back, with precision, on the definition, achievements and limitations of differential treatment as a mean of implementation of multilateral environmental agreements

Cette thèse vise à contribuer aux récents débats sur les avantages potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale entre les pays Africains. Elle le fait en abordant la triptyque Accords Régionaux de Commerce(ACRs), bien-être et conflits.Le continent Africain fait face aujourd’hui à deux enjeux majeurs de gouvernance : l’intégration régionale et la gestion des conflits armés. En effet, les performances commerciales des pays africains restent toujours marginales comparativement au reste du monde. Et ce, malgré les différentes politiques commerciales mises en œuvre depuis les années 70 (politique d'import-substitution, accord régional nord-sud, etc.…). Parmi ces politiques commerciales, les gouvernements Africains ont décidé de privilégier les accords régionaux en vu d’accroître le commerce entre les pays membres. Ces accords ont-ils eu l'effet escompté ? Dans quelle mesure ?Si on se réfère au point de vue largement partagé, la réponse semble être négative. Cependant cette réponse ignore les bénéfices politiques potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale. A ce titre, le travail présenté ici étudie l'effet des accords régionaux africains sur le commerce et le bien-être. Cela en utilisant les derniers développements de la théorie du commerce international ainsi que les meilleures techniques d'estimations des équations de gravité. Deuxièmement, Nous analysons l'effet de l'augmentation du commerce sur la probabilité de survenance d'une guerre civile à la fois de façon théorique et empirique. Les résultats obtenus, nous permettent de conclure que sans la signature des ACRs, près de la moitié des échanges entre leurs membres n'auraient pas été réalisé. D'autre part, cette thèse affirme que le commerce, à la fois domestique et international permet de diminuer le risque de conflit civil en Afrique. / This thesis aims to contribute to recent debates on the potential benefits of trade openness among African countries. This, by addressing the triptych regional trade agreements, welfare and conflict.The African continent is currently facing two major governance challenges: regional integration and the management of armed conflicts. Indeed, the trade performance of African countries remains marginal compared to the rest of the world. This is despite the different trade policies implemented since the 1970s (import substitution policy, North-South regional agreement, etc.). Among these trade policies, African governments have decided to focus on regional agreements in order to increase trade among member countries. Have these agreements had the expected effect ? To what extent ?If we refer to popular belief, the answer seems to be no. However, this answer ignores the potential political benefits of trade openness. As such, the work presented here first examines the effect of African regional agreements on trade and welfare. This is done using the latest developments in international trade theory and the best techniques for estimating gravity equations. Second, we analyze both theoretically and empirically the effect of increased trade on the probability of a civil war occurring. The results obtained allow us to conclude, on the one hand, that nearly half of the trade between members of trade agreements in Africa would not have been possible without the signing of the RTAs. On the other hand, both domestic and international trade, reduces the risk of civil conflict in Africa.

In the form of a theory testing case study based upon the seminal works of Kenneth Waltz and Stephen Walt, this thesis seeks to uncover whether defensive realism can be applied with focus on Israeli international conduct. This is defined by their wartime actions as well as their peacekeeping efforts. The paper analyses two major historical events; namely the six-day-war and the recent Israeli-Arab peace treaties. Thereafter it delves into the preexisting conditions of each combattant in the war, then reviews the events unfolding during the conflict in the first part of the analysis, followed by the second part examining the contents of the Abraham Accords, as well as the official statements of Bahrain and Sudan regarding peace with Israel.  Following this, the thesis examines the details and terms of the Abraham Accords and treaties between Israel, Bahrain and Sudan. A hypothesis is presented predicting that both tenets of defensive realism will be applicable to their respective parts of Israeli history. It is subsequently found that the first tenet of defensive realism has explanatory value with regards to the six-day-war, the second tenet of defensive realism that follows also proves to hold significant merit, and the thesis concludes that the given hypothesis therefore is correct. Both tenets of defensive realism are applicable to respective units of analysis on Israel, which therefore suggests that the theory of defensive realism offers a good framework for explaining the actions of the Israeli state.

The financial crisis starting in mid-2007 is still affecting us, and with increased regulation banks and institutions are supposed to get more solvent and the industry to become more stable. The Basel Committee is working towards more unified regulation across countries, but the question is how the increased regulation is affecting banks financials. Do profitable banks with a solid capital base have a higher ratio of capital buffer? Looking at banks in 16 OECD countries during the period 1993-2009, with country-level panel-data displayed in two simultaneous equation estimations illustrating how profit and capital buffer has changed during these years, and the relation between them. To get an understanding of how the crisis affected these variables the regressions are also done for a pre-crisis period of 1993-2006. Internal funding variables and other economic control variables are explanatory variables and results show the internal funding variables have a large effect on profit and for capital buffer profit have the largest impact. Results imply that profitable banks with a solid capital base do have a higher ratio of capital buffer. The results coincide with the franchise value theory which is applied in the paper.

Mortgage loans are the major assets securitised by South African banks. Arguments from the literature indicate that the use of securitisation as an instrument for regulatory arbitrage weakened banks’ soundness and caused, at least partially, the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis. In this regard, financial institutions continually took advantage of the loopholes in the Basel regulation, principally that of Basel I. Undertaken from both the empirical and theoretical angles, this thesis investigated whether regulatory capital arbitrage under Basel II and III regulations, was a driver of mortgage loans securitisation by South African banks. Additionally, the effect of mortgage loans securitisation on the South African banks’ stability was analysed. Furthermore, the project built upon the case of mortgage loans securitisation to deepen the insight on banks’ behaviour towards risk, by considering a rare contractual relationship where banks are regarded as agents acting on behalf of regulators. The theoretical examination was carried out by means of perspectives from Agency and Institutional Theories. The South African banking system is essentially monopolistic with five banks holding more than 90% of total assets, out of which four, with 70% of the assets, consistently report outstanding volume of mortgage loans securitised. Based on the data collected from these four major banks, this research project is the first in many regards. It involves an emerging economy, considers the influence of both Basel II and III regulations, covers the period 2008 to 2015, and focuses on well-capitalised banks exclusively. Moreover, it extends regulatory capital arbitrage analysis to the evidence of loans expansion, includes CAMELS as bank stability proxy and brings in Agency Theory and Institutional Theory to explain banks’ behaviour with regards to risk in this particular context. In contrast, other studies were concentrated on Europe and America, mostly under Basel I, limited to one or two baseline models for regulatory capital arbitrage and often only the Z-score measure was used for bank stability. In three major steps, this study first employed the Ordinary Least Squares statistical methodology to test the capital arbitrage theory of securitisation and other of its features whereby it causes the decrease of capital with little or no reduction of risk. The estimation results indicated that securitisation of mortgage loans lessened South African banks’ regulatory capital, increased their overall risk level and moreover, suggested that the proceeds from securitisation were used to expand their loans portfolios. These outcomes tentatively imply that South African banks securitise mortgage loans for regulatory capital arbitrage. The second step explored the impact of securitisation of mortgage loans on South African banks’ stability. Two different measures of bank stability were involved: the CAMELS and the Z-score. CAMELS stands for C: capital (leverage ratio and not the regulatory capital); A: assets quality; M: management efficiency; E: earning; L: liquidity; and S: sensitivity to market risk (interest risk). The Two Stage Least Squares and the Ordinary Least Squares statistical methods were used respectively for the analysis of the relationship between the two bank stability indicators and the outstanding volume of mortgage securitised. The empirical results from CAMELS showed that mortgage loans securitised negatively affected the level of capital proxied by the leverage ratio, eroded assets quality and increased South African banks’ overall costs. However, they had a positive effect on South African banks’ profit, they seemed to be an additional source of liquidity and represented a useful tool to curtail market risk sensitivity, especially the interest risk as they increased net interest income. With regards to the analysis with the Z-score, the results indicated a negative impact of mortgage securitised on South African banks’ stability. The outcome remained unchanged when retained interests in the form of subordinated loans were included in the analysis, but retained interest had a positive influence on the Z-score. The last step of this study pertained to the theoretical analysis based on the concepts of Agency Theory and Institutional Theory. Acting as regulators’ agents in an agency relationship, the simple model of Agency Theory in its extended form explained that South African banks were first and foremost risk-taking players. They were more interested in the risk/reward trade-off in their decision-making attitude towards risk than pursuing the regulators’ goal of the stability of the banking system. In that sense, it was not a surprise that they engaged in regulatory capital arbitrage despite knowing that it was risky but could provide gains in liquidity and profit. In addition to goals conflict, Agency Theory indicated asymmetry of information between banks and regulators as the indirect origin of regulatory capital arbitrage, where the opacity of banks’ activities, such as securitisation, rendered regulations ineffective and thus easy to shirk. Furthermore, it was found that the essentials of the behaviour-oriented contract suggested by the theory as the optimal contract, were already included in the formulation of the latest Basel Accords. However, the researcher believes that one key element, which is the reward or compensation that should benefit the banks (the agent) when they abide by the terms of the contract, is missing. Regulators should therefore include incentives in the regulations and combine the behaviour and outcome-oriented contracts to optimize their relationship with banks even though, as explained by the theory, the outcome of bank stability will remain partially uncertain due to uncontrollable factors such as the economic conditions. The concept of legitimacy, from Institutional Theory, explicated that banks’ legitimacy came from their ability to comply with the regulations. From this stance, the results suggested that regulatory capital arbitrage seemed instead to undermine the legitimacy of South Africa banks well-capitalised position.

This constructivist grounded theory study will explore the possibility that early socio-cultural experience in concert with innate cognitive mechanisms are essential components of a dual process of decision-making. Each element may influence conflict actors toward predictable predispositional behaviors manifest as bias. Specifically, we are concerned that these biases will influence the perceived and actual neutrality of the principle mediator thus compromising a mediation success. The presence of these predispositions in both mediators and conflict stakeholder challenges the validity of the conclusions in other research that does not consider the true impact of cultural dissonance on more than a superficial insinuation of social facts. This will be accomplished through interrogating data yielded through content analysis of the actors’ use of language both spoken and written utilizing the techniques used in grounded theory studies.

Since the regulatory framework Basel II was implemented in 2007, banks have been allowed to develop internal risk models for quantifying the capital requirement. By using data on retail non-performing loans from Hoist Finance, the thesis assesses the Advanced Internal Ratings-Based approach. In particular, it focuses on how banks active in the non-performing loan industry, can risk-classify their loans despite limited data availability of the debtors. Moreover, the thesis analyses the effect of the maximum-recovery period on the capital requirement. In short, a comparison of five different mathematical models based on prior research in the field, revealed that the loans may be modelled by a two-step tree model with binary logistic regression and zero-inflated beta-regression, resulting in a maximum-recovery period of eight years. Still it is necessary to recognize the difficulty in distinguishing between low- and high-risk customers by primarily assessing rudimentary data about the borrowers. Recommended future amendments to the analysis in further research would be to include macroeconomic variables to better capture the effect of economic downturns. / Sedan det regulatoriska ramverket Basel II implementerades 2007, har banker tillåtits utveckla interna riskmodeller för att beräkna kapitalkravet. Genom att använda data på fallerade konsumentlån från Hoist Finance, utvärderar uppsatsen den avancerade interna riskklassificeringsmodellen. I synnerhet fokuserar arbetet på hur banker aktiva inom sektorn för fallerade lån, kan riskklassificera sina lån trots begränsad datatillgång om låntagarna. Dessutom analyseras effekten av maximala inkassoperioden på kapitalkravet. I sammandrag visade en jämförelse av fem modeller, baserade på tidigare forskning inom området, att lånen kan modelleras genom en tvåstegs trädmodell med logistisk regression samt s.k. zero-inflated beta regression, resulterande i en maximal inkassoperiod om åtta år. Samtidigt är det värt att notera svårigheten i att skilja mellan låg- och högriskslåntagare genom att huvudsakligen analysera elementär data om låntagarna. Rekommenderade tillägg till analysen i fortsatt forskning är att inkludera makroekonomiska variabler för att bättre inkorporera effekten av ekonomiska nedgångar.

Cette thèse étudie la portée des licences de logiciels sur leurs acquéreurs et sur leurs utilisateurs, que l'on estime surévaluée. Actuellement, la jouissance ou la circulation du logiciel sont assurées majoritairement par une licence, qu'elle soit libre ou propriétaire. Souvent alambiquée et rédigée sans égard au droit applicable, la licence est considérée comme une simple permission d'utiliser la propriété intellectuelle d'autrui par le truchement d'un droit d'utilisation indûment attribué au titulaire du droit d'auteur. Ceci n'est pas surprenant, le logiciel étant principalement étudié à l'aune du droit d'auteur. Le logiciel ne peut cependant pas se résumer qu'au droit qui le protège. La dématérialisation étant un mythe, le bien incorporel qu'est l'œuvre logicielle est inapte à fonctionner physiquement sur un ordinateur. Cette tâche incombe à l'exemplaire logiciel, bien meuble corporel susceptible d'appropriation et distinct de l'œuvre incorporelle sous-jacente. Or, le droit d'auteur n'accorde pas la faculté de contrôler l'utilisation normale d'un exemplaire sur un ordinateur, ni d'en contrôler la circulation dès le premier transfert de propriété. C'est ainsi que le droit d'utilisation, lequel s'apparente à un acte de jouissance intellectuelle et matérielle, constitue une prérogative du propriétaire de l'exemplaire par son droit d'usus. Comme la notion d'exemplaire logiciel, de même que sa réalité physique propre et indépendante du droit, ont été largement ignorées, il n'est pas surprenant que des difficultés de qualification des licences de logiciels aient pu émerger. Par une qualification qui s'harmonise avec la nature juridique duale du logiciel, on y découvrira que la licence est de nature protéiforme, étant tantôt un contrat de vente, tantôt un contrat de louage, ou encore un contrat de prêt ou de donation d'un ou de plusieurs exemplaires logiciels destinés à fonctionner sur un ou plusieurs ordinateurs. La licence peut aussi être un contrat mixte ou même innommé. Seule la licence de logiciel libre constitue une licence de droit d'auteur à part entière, alors que son objet consiste à concéder des droits sur l'œuvre. Ces différentes qualifications ont pour effet, à des degrés variés, de restreindre les conséquences juridiques des licences et d'en réduire l'empreinte contractuelle. Cette empreinte est d'autant réduite lorsqu'on considère que certaines licences de logiciels propriétaires n'ont pas toujours un caractère liant en raison d'un consentement parfois suspect ou de clauses invalides. Quant aux licences de logiciels libres, leur simple utilisation n'est assujettie à aucune obligation particulière. Dans la mesure où aucun acte exclusif n'est exercé, leur contenu peut être ignoré. / This thesis studies the effects and legal consequences of software licenses on their acquirer and their users, which we believe to be overstated. Currently, the enjoyment or conveyance of a software is provided mainly by the mean of a license, whether free or proprietary. Often convoluted and drafted without regard to applicable law, a license is often viewed as mere permission to use the intellectual property of others through a right to use improperly attributed to the copyright holder. This is not surprising, since software law is primarily studied through the lens of copyright. Software, however, cannot be reduced to the right that protects it. Software intangibility being a myth, the incorporeal property that is a copyright work is incapable of running on a computer. This task falls to the software copy, a corporeal movable property susceptible of appropriation and distinct from the underlying intangible work. Copyright law does not grant the prerogative to control the ordinary use of a software copy on a computer, nor to control its conveyance after the first transfer of ownership. Thus, the right to use, which is akin to an act of intellectual and material enjoyment, is a prerogative of the owner of the copy through his right of usus. As the concept of the software copy, as well as its inherent tangibility, have been largely ignored, it is not surprising that difficulties in characterizing software licenses may have arisen. By acknowledging the dual legal nature of the software, one will notice that the license is protean in nature, being sometimes a sales contract, sometimes a lease or rental contract, or even a loan or gift contract. The license can also be a mixed or even an unnamed contract. All these contracts have in common the delivery of one or more software copies intended to run on one or more computers. Only a free software license constitutes a copyright license in its own right, while its object is to grant permissions in the work. These different qualifications have the effect, to varying degrees, of restricting the legal consequences of licenses and reducing their contractual footprint. This footprint is all the more limited when one considers that certain proprietary software licenses are not always binding due to suspicious consent or invalid clauses. As for free software licenses, merely using a software is not subject to any particular obligation. To the extent that no exclusive act is exercised, their content can be ignored.