published_or_final_version / Computer Science / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

In ongoing efforts to balance air traffic demand and airspace capacity, airspace complexity stands as a fundamental research problem. Taking a more analytic approach, this thesis proposes that airspace complexity can be described in terms of how the airspace (together with the traffic inside it and the traffic control algorithm) responds to disturbances. The response of the airspace to a disturbance is captured by the degree of control activity required to accommodate such disturbance. Furthermore, since the response of the airspace depends on the disturbance, this thesis introduces a complexity map which shows how an airspace responses to a set of different disturbances. Among the many possible types of disturbances, this thesis considers an aircraft entering into the airspace, and the proposed method of describing airspace complexity is illustrated with examples. The time evolution of a complexity map is investigated using a statistical approach. In addition, the proposed method is illustrated in relation to current and future traffic flow management concepts. It is also shown that the proposed method can be applied to airspace design problems.

The study focuses on the Human Factors (HF) discipline and its role in improving aviation safety and efficiency within Air Traffic Control (ATC). The objective is to contribute to a better understanding of the ATC work domain and identify opportunities for improving performance, safety and efficiency. The research also aims to understand air traffic controllers' (ATCs) experience of the Mil i-ATC alarm system and propose enhancements to improve performance. Data collection was executed through observational research at a military air traffic control tower, and semi-structured interviews with ATCs, moreover, Work Domain Analysis and Thematic Analysis were employed for data analysis. The findings highlight key factors influencing ATC operational efficiency and safety, including communication, air traffic management, and alarm management, that is realized through social, technical and physical means. Moreover, workload, stress, situational awareness, teamwork, and decision-making were identified as interrelated elements within ATC. To enhance the Mil i-ATC alarm system, the study recommends considering alarm presentation, taking into account context and operational impact. Moreover, alarms without operational significance and false alarms are identified to cause frustration and undermine the reliability of the alarm system. Further research is necessary to determine the feasibility of presenting action plans directly in the system and how alarms should be listed. It is recommended that future studies focus on sustaining ATCs' motivation and alertness during monotonous tasks or low workload situations. Additionally, it is important to determine the appropriate level of automation in ATC management systems and evaluate controllers' trust in these systems.

From 2010 to 2030, the number of instrument flight rules aircraft operations handled by Federal Aviation Administration en route traffic centers is predicted to increase from approximately 39 million flights to 64 million flights. The projected growth in air transportation demand is likely to result in traffic levels that exceed the abilities of the unaided air traffic controller in managing, separating, and providing services to aircraft. Consequently, the Federal Aviation Administration, and other air navigation service providers around the world, are making several efforts to improve the capacity and throughput of existing airspaces. Ultimately, the stated goal of the Federal Aviation Administration is to triple the available capacity of the National Airspace System by 2025. In an effort to satisfy air traffic demand through the increase of airspace capacity, air navigation service providers are considering the inclusion of advisory conflict-detection and resolution systems. In a human-in-the-loop framework, advisory conflict-detection and resolution decision-support tools identify potential conflicts and propose resolution commands for the air traffic controller to verify and issue to aircraft. A number of researchers and air navigation service providers hypothesize that the inclusion of combined conflict-detection and resolution tools into air traffic control systems will reduce or transform controller workload and enable the required increases in airspace capacity. In an effort to understand the potential workload implications of introducing advisory conflict-detection and resolution tools, this thesis provides a detailed study of the conflict event process and the implementation of conflict-detection and resolution algorithms. Specifically, the research presented here examines a metric of controller taskload: how many resolution commands an air traffic controller issues under the guidance of a conflict-detection and resolution decision-support tool. The goal of the research is to understand how the formulation, capabilities, and implementation of conflict-detection and resolution tools affect the controller taskload (system demands) associated with the conflict-resolution process, and implicitly the controller workload (physical and psychological demands). Furthermore this thesis seeks to establish best practices for the design of future conflict-detection and resolution systems. To generalize conclusions on the conflict-resolution taskload and best design practices of conflict-detection and resolution systems, this thesis focuses on abstracting and parameterizing the behaviors and capabilities of the advisory tools. Ideally, this abstraction of advisory decision-support tools serves as an alternative to exhaustively designing tools, implementing them in high-fidelity simulations, and analyzing their conflict-resolution taskload. Such an approach of simulating specific conflict-detection and resolution systems limits the type of conclusions that can be drawn concerning the design of more generic algorithms. In the process of understanding conflict-detection and resolution systems, evidence in the thesis reveals that the most effective approach to reducing conflict-resolution taskload is to improve conflict-detection systems. Furthermore, studies in the this thesis indicate that there is significant flexibility in the design of conflict-resolution algorithms.

The aviation industry evolves all the time in every possible sphere with new the technology that is advancing and the increasing amount of traffic on the airports. The air traffic control services has come a long way with automated systems and more advanced technology and the work of the air traffic controller (ATCO) has become more efficient to meet the higher demands for more traffic. But along with highly automated systems and work efficiency there can be a lack of safety instead if there is too much to do for the controller. A new concept in the aviation industry is developing; multiple remote towers, which means that one ATCO can be several miles away from the airports and handle two or more airports at the same time from the same work station. The air traffic controllers has to monitor the aircrafts, direct the traffic, make decisions and make sure that the pilots follows the instructions. At the same time the ATCO need to monitor the systems as well, making sure that everything is working as it is supposed to. To be able to maintain a safe environment for the controllers and the aircrafts, on and surrounding the runways, the controllers need to have situation awareness and the system they are working within need to be resilient to be able to cope with the different kind of situations that might occur. This study has focused on the role of the ATCO in air traffic control towers and by eye-tracking mapped what the controllers are looking at while handling arrivals in two different air traffic control towers. An episode analysis was made on several episodes that took place during different kinds of conditions in the two different air traffic control tower simulators, one single tower simulator and one multiple remote tower simulator. Patterns in the controllers’ way of handling arrivals were identified and the results from the controllers’ eye-movements shows that the ATCOs have a habitual behaviour pattern and that for almost every arrival they will act in the same way. The ATCO in the single tower simulator used the air radar several times during the episodes while in the multiple remote tower simulator the ATCOs almost never looked at the air radar. The radio was used more by the controllers in the multiple remote tower than in the single tower and it is discussed if this is something that can take too much time from an ATCO in a multiple remote tower. The results also highlights the importance of the strip-table, a tool used by the controllers during every step of the arrival process. The conclusions are that the system (controllers and non-human agents) has situation awareness and that the air traffic controllers have a clear frame of the situation. The results from this study can be seen as a guideline and a start for further research in this field and for the development of multiple remote towers. Further research should investigate in the controllers’ ability of reframing in situations of runway incursions and other unexpected events and the usage of the radio in multiple remote towers.

<p>Multiple target tracking (MTT) is a major area that occurs in a variety of real world systems. The problem involves the detection and estimation of an unknown number of targets within a scenario space given a sequence of noisy, incomplete measurements. The classic approach to MTT performs data association between individual measurements, however, this step is a computationally complex problem. Recently, a series of algorithms based on Random Finite Set (RFS) theory, that do not require data association, have been introduced. This thesis addresses some of the main deficiencies involved with RFS methods and derives key extensions to improve them for use in real world systems.\\</p> <p>The first contribution is the Weight Partitioned PHD filter. It separates the Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) surface into partitions that represent the individual state estimates both spatially and proportionally. The partitions are labeled and propagated over several time steps to form continuous track estimates. Multiple variants of the filter are presented. Next, the Multitarget Multi-Bernoulli (MeMBer) filter is extended to allow the tracking of manoeuvring targets. A model state variable is incorporated into the filter framework to estimate the probability of each motion model. The standard implementations are derived. Finally, a new linear variant of the Intensity filter (iFilter) is presented. A Gaussian Mixture approximation provides more computationally efficient implementation of the iFilter.</p> <p>Each of the new algorithms are validated on simulated data using standard multitarget tracking metrics. In each case, the methods improve on several aspects of multitarget tracking in the real world.</p> / Doctor of Engineering (DEng)

Thesis (MScEng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / A radar system observes an aircraft once during each scan of the airspace, and uses these observations to construct a track representing a possible route of the aircraft. However when aircraft interact closely there is the possiblility of confusing the identities of the tracks. In this thesis multiple hypothesis techniques are applied to extract an identity confidence from a track, given a set of possible tracks and observations. The system utilises numerous estimation filters internally and these are investigated and compared in detail. The Identity Confidence algorithm is tested using a developed radar simulation system, and evaluated sucessfully against a series of benchmark tests.

Este trabalho propõe um modelo de análise quantitativa baseado em simulação de eventos discretos para a determinação do nível de resiliência em sistemas de transporte. O nível de resiliência é avaliado considerando as funções de desempenho relacionadas a capacidade, ao nível de serviço e ao tempo de recuperação do sistema de transporte frente a um evento de ruptura. O modelo é validado através de estudo de caso aplicado ao sistema de tráfego aéreo brasileiro, considerando um espaço aéreo composto por 12 setores de uma região de informação de voo (FIR), suas demandas diárias de aeronaves, sua malha de rotas aéreas e sua rede de aeródromos instalada. O evento de ruptura é oriundo de condições meteorológicas adversas que afetam simultaneamente as operações de pouso e decolagem no aeroporto do Rio de Janeiro - Santos Dumont (SBRJ) e no aeroporto de São Paulo - Congonhas (SBSP). Conclui-se que o modelo de análise permite a plena determinação do nível de resiliência em sistemas de transportes, mesmo em situações de rupturas operacionais simultâneas. / This work proposes a quantitative analysis model based on discrete event simulation (DES) to determine the resilience level of transport systems. The resilience level is evaluated considering the performance functions related to capacity, service level and recovery time of the transport system in a presence of disruptive events. The model is validated through a case study applied to the Brazilian air traffic system, considering an airspace with 12 sectors of a flight information region (FIR), its daily aircraft demands, its air route network and its aerodromes network installed. The disruptive event comes from adverse weather conditions that simultaneously affect the landing and takeoff operations at Rio de Janeiro - Santos Dumont (SBRJ) and São Paulo - Congonhas (SBSP) airports. It is concluded that the analysis model allows the full determination of the resilience level in transport systems, even in situations of simultaneous operational disruptions.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1982. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND AERO. / Includes bibliographical references. / by Shinsuke Endoh. / M.S.

A multitude of wireless technologies are used by air traffic communication systems during different flight phases. From a conceptual perspective, all of them are insecure as security was never part of their design and the evolution of wireless security in aviation did not keep up with the state of the art. Recent contributions from academic and hacking communities have exploited this inherent vulnerability and demonstrated attacks on some of these technologies. However, these inputs revealed that a large discrepancy between the security perspective and the point of view of the aviation community exists. In this thesis, we aim to bridge this gap and combine wireless security knowledge with the perspective of aviation professionals to improve the safety of air traffic communication networks. To achieve this, we develop a comprehensive new threat model and analyse potential vulnerabilities, attacks, and countermeasures. Since not all of the required aviation knowledge is codified in academic publications, we examine the relevant aviation standards and also survey 242 international aviation experts. Besides extracting their domain knowledge, we analyse the awareness of the aviation community concerning the security of their wireless systems and collect expert opinions on the potential impact of concrete attack scenarios using insecure technologies. Based on our analysis, we propose countermeasures to secure air traffic communication that work transparently alongside existing technologies. We discuss, implement, and evaluate three different approaches based on physical and data link layer information obtained from live aircraft. We show that our countermeasures are able to defend against the injection of false data into air traffic control systems and can significantly and immediately improve the security of air traffic communication networks under the existing real-world constraints. Finally, we analyse the privacy consequences of open air traffic control protocols. We examine sensitive aircraft movements to detect large-scale events in the real world and illustrate the futility of current attempts to maintain privacy for aircraft owners.