Cette thèse étudie l’impact des institutions, notamment les institutions financières, sur le commerce et les investissements internationaux. Les quatre premiers chapitres étudient les institutions financières et leur impact sur le commerce et la spécialisation internationale. Précisément, le premier chapitre étudie ces institutions et les déterminants de leur niveau de développement. Le deuxième chapitre analyse la façon dont la finance intervient sur le commerce bilatéral. Le troisième chapitre construit un modèle théorique qui vise à expliquer l’impact de la finance sur le commerce sectoriel en fonction du degré d’intensité financière de chaque secteur. Le quatrième chapitre analyse l’impact hétérogène de la finance sur les différents secteurs manufacturiers. Le dernier chapitre de la thèse utilise le terme “institution” dans un sens plus large et étudie théoriquement et empiriquement si les similitudes et différences dans les environnements institutionnels à travers les pays explique la distribution internationale des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). / This thesis examines the impact of institutions, especially the financial institutions, on international trade and foreign direct investments. The first four chapters study the financial institutions and their impact on trade and international specialization. Specifically, the first chapter examines these financial institutions and the determinants of their level of development. The second chapter examines how finance impacts bilateral trade. The third chapter builds a theoretical model and aims to explain the impact of finance on the sectoral trade as a function of the degree of financial intensity of each sector. The fourth chapter analyzes the heterogeneous impact of finance on the different manufacturing sectors. The last chapter of the thesis uses the term "institution" in a broader sense and studies theoretically and empirically whether the similarities and differences in institutional environments across countries explain the international patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI).

Ce travail étudie, théoriquement et empiriquement, l'interaction entre le commerce international et l'investissement direct étranger (IDE), interaction qui a été un des principaux canaux de la mondialisation économique et de l'essor des chaînes de valeur mondiales dans la segmentation des activités de production. Les modèles théoriques montrent que le commerce international et les IDE peuvent se développer dans une relation de substituabilité ou de complémentarité. La nature de cette relation peut être la conséquence de facteurs exogènes, déterminants de la spécialisation des pays, ou le résultat de la stratégie endogène des firmes dans l'organisation de leurs activités à l'international. La validation empirique s'appuie sur une adaptation du modèle de gravité, en appliquant les techniques économétrique sur données de panel sur des données bilatérales pour la France au cours de la période de 1993 à 2012. Les estimations mettent en évidence une relation de complémentarité entre le commerce et l'IDE au niveau le plus agrégé. Cependant, une analyse comparative à un niveau plus désagrégé permet de trouver des indices de substituabilité et de complémentarité selon les groupes de pays partenaires. / This work investigates, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), which has been one of the key channels of economic globalization, and of the development of global value chains in the international segmentation of production. Theoretical models show that international and FDI may be substitutes or complements. The nature of this relationship may be the consequence of exogenous factors, determinants of country specialization, or the result of the endogenous strategy of firms in the organization of their international activities. The empirical validation relies on an adaptation of the gravity model, using panel econometrics with bilateral data for France during the 1993-2012 period. Estimates show a complementarity relationship between trade and FDI at the most aggregated level. However, a comparative analysis at a more disaggregated level reveals some signs of substitutability or complementarity according to the group of partner countries.

O objetivo deste trabalho é introduzir um método para a avaliação da viabilidade das exportações focando no crescimento econômico em termos de PIB do resto do mundo. Para isso são utilizados modelos locacionais e modelos de regressão baseados em modelos gravitacionais de comércio, ambos em conjunto. Este trabalho também apresenta de forma matemática e microeconômica a relação existente entre ambos os modelos. O estudo também testa o método introduzido por meio de um exemplo utilizando as exportações do complexo soja brasileiro entre 1996 e 2010. Os resultados obtidos não descartam o uso da metodologia proposta como instrumento de análise da viabilidade das exportações. / The aim of this work is to introduce a method for assessing the viability of exports focusing on economic growth of the rest of the world in terms of GDP. For this purpose, location models and regression models based on gravity models of trade are used together. This research also presents a mathematical explanation and the microeconomic relationship between both models. Also this work uses the example of Brazilian soybean complex exports between 1996 and 2010 to test the introduced method. The results do not rule out the use of the proposed methodology as a tool for analyzing the viability of exports.

En dépit du renforcement de leur ouverture commerciale, le commerce extérieur des pays du Mashrek a presque toujours affiché des chiffres plutôt négatifs. Selon la littérature, l'ouverture commerciale est une des conditions permettant une croissance vigoureuse d'un pays. Néanmoins, la tendance constatée à la lumière des données du commerce de ces pays, traduirait une réalité alarmante. L'ouverture ne s'est pas traduite par une accélération des niveaux des investissements, ni par une création d'emplois. Est-ce que les politiques commerciales et de change menées par les pays du Mashrek sont responsables de cette persistance des déficits commerciaux ? Motivée par l’aggravation remarquable du solde de la balance commerciale libanaise survenue dans le profil global des échanges extérieurs du Liban, la présente recherche examine le comportement dynamique des exportations et importations libanaises en comparaison avec ses pays voisins (la Syrie, l’Egypte et la Jordanie) dans un contexte économique régional et international en mutation, en proposant une analyse empirique des déterminants des flux commerciaux ayant pour objet d’établir dans quelle mesure la politique commerciale et de change seraient responsables des faits stylisés observés. / Despite the strengthening of their commercial openness, the Mashreq countries trade has rather always displayed negative results. According to the literature, opening up trade is one of the conditions leading to any country’s vigorous growth. Nevertheless, the trend found in the light of these countries’ trade data, indicates an alarming reality. The openness was neither translated into accelerated levels of investments nor created new job opportunities. Are the trade and exchange rate policies pursued by the Mashreq countries responsible for this persistence in trade deficits ? Motivated by outstanding worsening deflection of the trade balance in the overall Lebanese external trade profile, the current research examines the dynamic behavior of the Lebanese exports and imports compared to its neighboring countries (Syria, Egypt, and Jordan) in a regional and international changing economic context. An empirical analysis of the trade flows determinants was adopted in order to establish to what extent the trade and Exchange policies would be responsible for the observed stylized facts.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T18:57:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 25 / Nenhuma / Esta dissertação analisa o efeito fronteira do Brasil e de suas regiões para o ano de 1999. O efeito fronteira indica o viés do comércio doméstico em comparação com o comércio internacional. Esse efeito foi estimado empiricamente, utilizando-se dados de corte seccional, em um modelo gravitacional com os 26 estados brasileiros, mais o Distrito Federal e 40 países. Apesar de o Brasil ter se engajado em um processo de abertura comercial, como o ocorrido durante a década de 90, e ter participado de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio importantes como o Mercosul, constatou-se que o país e algumas de suas regiões apresentam elevados custos de fronteira. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o comércio entre estados brasileiros é 33 vezes superior ao comércio internacional desses estados. Para as regiões brasileiras, o efeito fronteira das regiões Norte e Nordeste, é significativamente maior daquele observado nas regiões Sul e Sudeste / This paper analyzes the border effect for Brazilian goods market and its regions in 1999. The border effect indicates the bias for domestic trade compared with international trade. This effect was quantified empirically by using cross-sectional data in a gravitational model for twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Federal District and forty other countries. Despite Brazil's involvement in commercial opening in the 90's, as well as important regional trade agreements such as Mercosul, we noticed that Brazil and some of its regions have high crossborder costs. The finding results of this equation suggest a trade 33 times higher between Brazilian states than the international trade of these states. Regarding each Brazilian region, the border effect found for intra-national trade among Northeast and North regions is significantly higher than the border effect for Southeast and Southern regions.

Thailand has been one of significant recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI) among developing countries over the last 30 years, and has recorded rapid and sustained growth rates in a number of different industrial categories. Thailand has shown a clear policy transition for foreign investment over time from an import-substitution regime to an export-oriented regime. Before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (1985-1996), Thailand had the fastest growing level of exports in manufactured goods among Asian economies. FDI plays a significant role in the Thai economy. Thailand has been pursuing different foreign investment policies at different times depending on the development objectives and economic situation in the country. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the determinants of FDI and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Thailand using the extended Gravity Model. Panel data is used to estimate and evaluate the empirical results based on the data for the years 1980 to 2004. It also examines the FDI flows between different locations and their geographical distances in Thailand. The primary research question addresses what factors motivate, attract, and sustain the FDI and FPI in Thailand. In addition, this study also examines the effects of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis on the inflows of FDI and FPI into Thailand. The results show that the inflows of FDI in Thailand, which are supply-driven, are significantly influenced by its 21 largest investing partners. The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis has no impact on the determinants of the inflows of FDI into Thailand, but positively influences the inflows of FPI into Thailand. Our results also show that increases in GDP and trade between investing partners and Thailand potentially attract more FDI and FPI into Thailand. Investing partners closer to Thailand draw more portfolio investment into Thailand than distant partners – emphasising that distance has a negative impact on the portfolio investment but a negligible impact on the FDI.

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This thesis examines the impact of institutions, especially the financial institutions, on international trade and foreign direct investments. The first four chapters study the financial institutions and their impact on trade and international specialization. Specifically, the first chapter examines these financial institutions and the determinants of their level of development. The second chapter examines how finance impacts bilateral trade. The third chapter builds a theoretical model and aims to explain the impact of finance on the sectoral trade as a function of the degree of financial intensity of each sector. The fourth chapter analyzes the heterogeneous impact of finance on the different manufacturing sectors. The last chapter of the thesis uses the term "institution" in a broader sense and studies theoretically and empirically whether the similarities and differences in institutional environments across countries explain the international patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI).

Questa tesi offre un’analisi complessiva della posizione e del ruolo giocato dall’Argentina nell’economia globale durante l’ultimo decennio, attraverso l’uso di diverse metodologie tipiche dell’analisi economica. La ricerca parte dall’analisi della dimensione economica interna del Paese, fornendo uno studio della struttura produttiva dell’Argentina e del suo sviluppo economico. In seguito l’analisi si focalizza sullo studio delle variabili determinanti dei flussi commerciali dell’Argentina con i suoi partners regionali tramite un’applicazione econometrica del modello gravitazionale. Infine, si concentra sull’analisi del ruolo dell’Argentina nella gestione dell’economia globale studiandone il ruolo nel Fondo Monetario Internazionale, nel G20 e nel MERCOSUR attraverso un approccio di International Political Economy. Il risultato principale è la scoperta dell’esistenza di un collegamento tra la dimensione interna e quella esterna. Infatti la persistente instabilità macroeconomica e inappropriate politiche economiche adottate a livello nazionale provocano una perdita di competitività globale che potrebbe danneggiare nel lungo periodo la performance economica dell’Argentina, ostacolandone il raggiungimento dello status di Paese completamente sviluppato. Inoltre, populismo e nazionalismo economico stanno isolando l’Argentina dal resto della regione sudamericana e dal mondo, portando il Paese verso la condizione di ‘pariah’ nelle relazioni internazionali. / This thesis offers a comprehensive analysis of Argentina’s position and role within the global economy during the last decade, adopting different methodologies of the economic analysis. The focus of the research starts from the analysis of the domestic economic dimension of the country, providing a study of Argentina’s economic structure and development pattern. It then examines the study of the determinants of Argentina’s trading flows with its regional partners with an econometric application of the gravity model of international trade. It finally focuses on the analysis of Argentina’s global inclusion in the management of the global economy through the description of Argentina’s behavior in the IMF, the G20 and MERCOSUR with an approach taken from International Political Economy. The main finding is that there is a link from the internal to the external dimension, since persistent macroeconomic instability and inappropriate economic policies result into a lack of global competitiveness which might affect in the long run the economic performance of Argentina, preventing it from achieving the status of a completely developed country. Moreover, populism and economic nationalism are isolating Argentina from the rest of South America and the world, driving the country to the status of a ‘pariah’ in international relations.

In the thesis foreign direct investment in the Baltic countries using gravity model have been analysed. The first part of the thesis consists of foreign direct investment definition, the positive and negative influencing factors of foreign direct investment evaluation criteria analysis of the scientific literature and the authors different approaches to them. It is also made a critical evaluation of literature, authors usually distinguishing factors mentioned in different sources that affect foreign direct investment. Also in the first part of the paper theoretically gravity model and its application in practice of direct foreign investment assessment has been described. In the practical, analytical part the analysis of the chosen 7 most popular parameters from has been performed using the graphical methods. Also analyzed the market size, average wages, education levels, tax burden, economic openness index , GDP per capita and the average disposable income per household member on foreign direct investment in the Baltic countries, using multiple regression and correlation analysis and using a gravity model. The thesis ends with conclusions and recommendations. Structure: introduction, theoretical part, practical part, conclusions and suggestions, references. Thesis consist of: 77 p. text without appendixes, 19 pictures, 34 tables, 55 bibliographical entries. / Baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjamos tiesioginės užsienio investicijos Baltijos šalyse taikant gravitacinį modelį. Pirmoje darbo dalyje pateikiama tiesioginių užsienio investicijų sąvokos, teigiamą ir neigiamą įtaką darančių veiksnių, tiesioginių užsienio investicijų vertinimo kriterijų analizė mokslinėje literatūroje bei skirtingas autorių požiūris į juos. Taip pat atliktas kritinis literatūros vertinimas, išskiriant dažniausiai autorių minimus veiksnius skirtinguose šaltiniuose, kurie daro įtaką tiesioginėms užsienio investicijoms. Taip pat pirmoje darbo dalyje teoriniu požiūriu išanalizuotas gravitacinis modelis bei jo taikymas praktikoje tiesioginėse užsienio investicijoms įvertinti. Praktinėje, analitinėje darbo dalyje pagal pasirinktus 7 parametrus iš dažniausiai pasitaikančių literatūros apžvalgose išanalizuotas Baltijos šalių tiesioginių užsienio investicijų atvejis naudojant grafinę analizę. Taip pat nagrinėjamas rinkos dydžio, vidutinio darbo užmokesčio, išsilavinimo lygio, mokesčių naštos, ekonominio atvirumo indekso BVP vienam gyventojui bei vidutinių disponuojamų pajamų vienam namų ūkio nariui įtaka tiesioginėms užsienio investicijoms Baltijos šalyse naudojant daugianarę koreliacinę regresinę analizę bei pritaikant gravitacinį modelį. Darbo pabaigoje pateikiamos išvados ir siūlymai. Darbą sudaro 2 dalys: įvadas, teorinė dalis, praktinė dalis išvados ir siūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 77 p. teksto be priedų, 19 iliustr., 34 lent., 55... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]