本篇論文主要探討不同風險因子對於壽險業安定基金保費之影響。首先建立一個評價安定基金保費之機制，此模型考慮壽險公司投資決策、負債組合、監理寬容以及市場不確定性。接著使用蒙地卡羅模擬不同風險因子變動之下的公平保費。其數值分析顯示壽險公司之權益組合占資產比例、槓桿、監理寬容期間以及監理標準皆對公平保費有正向之影響。 / In this study, a valuation model is derived to price the fair premium in the insurance guarantee fund incorporating investment selection, liability portfolio, regulatory forbearance and market uncertainty. Then, Monte Carlo method is employed to measure the fair premium based on various important pricing factors. Finally, the numerical experiments and sensitivity analysis are conducted to investigate their impacts on the premiums. The results of our study indicate that the equity shares in the asset portfolio, the leverage ratio of the firm, the grace period and the tolerance of the capital threshold have the positive impacts on the risk-based premiums in the proposed ex-ante insurance guarantee fund scheme.

This report covers a study testing the possibility of adding portfolio optimization by mean-variance analysis as a tool to extend the concept of momentum strategies in contrast to naive allocation formed by Jegadeesh & Titman (1993). Further these active investment strategies are compared with a passive benchmark as well as a randomly selected portfolio over the entire study-period. The study showed that the naive allocation model outperformed the mean-variance model both economically as well as statistically. No indication where obtained for a lagged return effect when letting a mean-variance model choose weights for a quarterly holding period and the resulting investment recommendation is to follow a naive investment strategy within a momentum framework.

The purpose of the study is to investigate optimal asset allocation as a means of minimising the investment risk, drawdown risk and longevity risk associated with an investment linked living annuity. The three risk elements were tested for various categories of retirees investing the full retirement savings amount in a living annuity. At first the paper examines the South African public's current pre-retirement savings habits, propensity to save and knowledge on the financial industry. The literature concludes that very few people are saving adequately for retirement, thus leaving a gap between required retirement savings capital and accumulated retirement savings capital. As a consequence, retirees have to take on more risk, usually in the form of equity exposure, (only available in an investment linked living annuity) or delaying retirement, to try and breach the gap. Secondly the paper examines the constructs in developing an optimal asset allocation. An analysis of the constructs includes risk versus return relationships for retirees, various unit trust sectors and portfolios within the South African financial market, the investment horizon also stated as the life expectancy of a retiree and withdrawal strategies applied by investors or retirees. The practical data and theory from the literature study formed the basis of the empirical study where different retirement savings balances were tested at various drawdown rates and asset allocations in an investment linked living annuity. The study concluded that retirees have to consider, among other factors, the required standard of living (stated as a net replacement ratio), the need to withdraw one third of the retirement capital and life expectancy before investing in an investment linked living annuity. These factors will have the biggest influence on the risks associated with an investment linked living annuity. Furthermore, the study concluded that an optimal asset allocation would be able to support a retiree during the post-retirement phase. A well diversified portfolio with a minimum of 50% allocation towards equity and property assets seems to be optimal. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2010.

The purpose of the study is to investigate optimal asset allocation as a means of minimising the investment risk, drawdown risk and longevity risk associated with an investment linked living annuity. The three risk elements were tested for various categories of retirees investing the full retirement savings amount in a living annuity. At first the paper examines the South African public's current pre-retirement savings habits, propensity to save and knowledge on the financial industry. The literature concludes that very few people are saving adequately for retirement, thus leaving a gap between required retirement savings capital and accumulated retirement savings capital. As a consequence, retirees have to take on more risk, usually in the form of equity exposure, (only available in an investment linked living annuity) or delaying retirement, to try and breach the gap. Secondly the paper examines the constructs in developing an optimal asset allocation. An analysis of the constructs includes risk versus return relationships for retirees, various unit trust sectors and portfolios within the South African financial market, the investment horizon also stated as the life expectancy of a retiree and withdrawal strategies applied by investors or retirees. The practical data and theory from the literature study formed the basis of the empirical study where different retirement savings balances were tested at various drawdown rates and asset allocations in an investment linked living annuity. The study concluded that retirees have to consider, among other factors, the required standard of living (stated as a net replacement ratio), the need to withdraw one third of the retirement capital and life expectancy before investing in an investment linked living annuity. These factors will have the biggest influence on the risks associated with an investment linked living annuity. Furthermore, the study concluded that an optimal asset allocation would be able to support a retiree during the post-retirement phase. A well diversified portfolio with a minimum of 50% allocation towards equity and property assets seems to be optimal. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2010.

Die auf Markowitz (1952) zurückgehende Portfoliotheorie ist ohne jeden Zweifel ein bedeutender Themenbereich der modernen finanzwirtschaftlichen Forschung. Zentral beschäftigt sich dieser Bereich mit der Frage, wie ein Anleger sein Vermögen auf unterschiedliche Anlagewerte verteilen soll. Als Ergebnis stellt sich ein optimales Verhältnis aus Rendite und Risiko heraus, wobei das Risiko ausschließlich durch die Varianz der Portfoliorendite erfasst wird. Konkrete Anwendungen dieses Konzeptes erzielen jedoch aufgrund von Schätzfehlern und Stationaritätsannahmen bei der Erwartungsbildung enttäuschende Resultate, speziell im Vergleich zu passiven Anlagestrategien. Die vorliegende Arbeit greift nun beide Aspekte parallel auf. Zum einem werden neben der Varianz auch weitere höhere Momente der Portfoliorenditeverteilung in der optimalen Asset Allokation berücksichtigt, zum anderen werden an Stelle von historischen Renditezeitreihen implizite Informationen aus dem Optionsmarkt für die Erwartungsbildung genutzt. Die Arbeit leistet hierzu methodische, theoretische und empirische Beiträge. Es wird aufgezeigt, wie implizite Informationen in der Asset Allokation mit höheren Momenten zur Anwendung kommen und, im Rahmen von umfangreichen empirischen Studien, dass im Vergleich zur Erwartungsbildung auf Basis historischer Renditezeitreihen implizite Informationen in der Asset Allokation vorzuziehen sind.

在國際間的股票市場中，股票報酬常存在有不對稱的相關結構，而其會造成許多極度地尾端風險。Copula函數常被用來描述多變數之間的聯合相關程度。多數的文獻均以二元copula函數為架構，去描述多種不同資產，像是股票、債券、匯率等之間的關係。我們討論多元copula的應用，本文以四元copula為主軸，並輔以狀態轉換 (regime-switching) 之機率過程，建構出四資產的投資組合之相關結構模型。 考慮了狀態轉換之copula的配適性後，我們以此模型來做資產投資策略。在模擬過程中，我們嘗試根據不同的未來目標做出最佳的投資組合權重，並採用動態預期模型 (dynamic anticipative model) 來藉由資訊的不斷更新，重新估計模型的參數來做資產評估。實證結果上，我們發現考慮狀態轉換之copula模型可以捕捉到更多股票報酬波動的情形，因此能減少在股市共跌時造成的重大損失。 / The correlation of returns in international stock markets exist asymmetric structure, which cause extremely tail dependence. The copula functions are commonly used to describe the dependence between random variables. Most literatures use basic pair-copulas to model the dependence of two variables, like stocks, bonds and exchange rates. This article try to use multivariate copulas, mainly 4-copula, and regime-switching method to construct a portfolio dependence, and extend to asset allocation. Given the fitting regime-switching copula, we use the model to decide investment strategy. We try to select the optimal weights of portfolio by different objective function, and we adapt a dynamic anticipative model, which can take all new information for parameters estimation. Empirically, we find that the copula-based model with regime-switching can capture more variation, and decrease the return loss from downside co-movement.

[pt] O presente trabalho mostra a utilização da metodologia value at risk para a mensuração do risco de mercado, quando dos investimentos em renda fixa (aplicação em cotas de fundos de investimentos), por parte dos Fundos de Pensão, bem como a aplicação de métodos de otimização para a alocação de ativos. Na primeira parte, são apresentadas as diversas metodologias de mensuração de risco de mercado (VaR), dentre as quais destacam-se a modelagem paramétrica, a simulação de Monte Carlo e a simulação histórica, esta última adotada para este trabalho. Na parte seguinte são expostos, em linhas gerais, conceitos referentes à teoria clássica de otimização de carteiras, cujo precursor foi Markowitz; a partir desses, são desenvolvidos algoritmos a serem usados na gestão ativa da carteira de investimentos da instituição (neste caso, Fundo de Pensão). A última parte exibe os resultados obtidos, bem como a interpretação dos mesmos. / [en] This work shows the use of Value-at-Risk methodology, measuring market risk for Pension Funds fixed income investment funds, and the adoption of optimization methods for asset allocation. The first part presents different methodologies used to measure market risk (VaR). Among them, we can distinguish three approaches: parametric, Monte Carlo Simulation and Historical Simulation (called Full Simulation) - used to implement the models adopted in this work. The second part summarizes the most important concepts related to the Classic Theory of Portfolio Optimization, developed by Markowitz. Based on these concepts we have created different algorithms to be used in the active management - institution`s investment portfolio (in our case, Pension Funds). The last part focus in the results obtained and is concerned with their interpretation; in other words, it attempts to define how the institution could use this information to support its investment decision. / [es] EL presente trabajo muestra la utilización de la metodología value at risk para evaluar el riesgo de mercado, para las inversiones en renta fija (aplicación en cuotas de fondos de inversiones), por parte de los Fondos de Pensión, así como la aplicación de métodos de optimización para la colocación de activos. En la primera parte, se presentan las diversas metodologías de evaluación de riesgo de mercado (VaR), dentro de las cuales se destacan: los modelos paramétricos, la simulación de Monte Carlo y la simulación histórica, ésta última adoptada en este trabajo. En la parte siguiente se exponen, en líneas generales, los conceptos de la teoría clásica de optimización de carteras, cuyo precursor fue Markowitz; a partir de ellos, se desarrollan los algoritmos que serán utilizados en la gestión activa de la carteira de investimientos de la instituición (en este caso, Fondo de Pensión). La última parte exhibe los resultados obtenidos y su interpretación.

Submitted by João Tóvolli (joaotovolli@hotmail.com) on 2016-02-27T17:09:13Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao v11.docx: 1267937 bytes, checksum: c9a1fd7a1e77c02a843a4100d19fb25d (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: João, boa tarde De acordo com as normas da ABNT para que possamos aceitar seu trabalho, será necessário realizar alguns ajustes. Segue abaixo: - O arquivo deve estar em pdf - Na capa, retirar EESP que consta ao lado do nome da escola. - Na capa e contra capa deve estar SÃO PAULO 2016 (consta 2015) - Centralizar o título Resumo e Abstract - As numerações das páginas devem estar ao lado direito. Após alterações, submeter novamente o arquivo. Att on 2016-02-29T17:56:31Z (GMT) / Submitted by João Tóvolli (joaotovolli@hotmail.com) on 2016-02-29T18:16:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao v12.pdf: 1025424 bytes, checksum: a080e366f58b59e6715da1ca07fe146b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-02-29T19:59:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao v12.pdf: 1025424 bytes, checksum: a080e366f58b59e6715da1ca07fe146b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-01T12:16:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao v12.pdf: 1025424 bytes, checksum: a080e366f58b59e6715da1ca07fe146b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-02 / This thesis proposes a trading framework to analyze the performance of Stop-Loss strategy in terms of value added. Based on the paper of Kaminsky e Lo (2014), the rule consists in switching from a high volatile asset to a risk free asset by a binary Stop-Loss rule. We found out an outstanding result, reducing volatility and an increasing coefficient return/volatility. / Nesta dissertação é proposta uma estrutura de trading para analisar o desempenho da estratégia de Stop-Loss em termos de ganho de valor. Fundamentada no paper de Kaminsky e Lo (2014), a regra consiste em alternar de um ativo de alta volatilidade para um ativo livre de risco baseado em uma regra binária de Stop-Loss. Foram encontrados resultados nominais positivos, redução de volatilidade e consequente aumento do coeficiente retorno/volatilidade.

Submitted by Carina Rizzi (carina.rizzi@fgv.br) on 2016-10-20T13:31:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Federico_RIVA_Final_Version_FGV.pdf: 869421 bytes, checksum: 3ae1d66c6fc26adc451331c13a55b1a4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-10-20T13:33:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Federico_RIVA_Final_Version_FGV.pdf: 869421 bytes, checksum: 3ae1d66c6fc26adc451331c13a55b1a4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-20T13:36:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Federico_RIVA_Final_Version_FGV.pdf: 869421 bytes, checksum: 3ae1d66c6fc26adc451331c13a55b1a4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 / The size of mutual funds throughout the world reached $33.4 trillion in terms of assets under management in 2015. Part of these funds is invested directly or on behalf of private investors whose aim is to secure their future financial wealth. I have been following a stream of literature from the 1980’s that focuses on the relation between dividends stability and returns for equities. A recent research analyzes the benefits of maximizing returns from income such as dividend-paying stocks and coupon-bearing bonds in the attempt of improving the performance of the portfolio. The theory is that focusing on stable dividend-paying stocks, the investor is able to gain exposure to healthy and prosperous firms. Ultimately, this should provide the investor with a smaller exposure to risk thanks to a constant stream of cash flows from dividends. This strategy would be beneficial to highly risk-averse investors. / O tamanho de fundos mútuos ao redor do mundo alcançou $33.4 trilhões em termos de AUM em 2015. Parte destes fundos é investida diretamente ou em nome de investidores privados cujo objetivo é preserver a riqueza financeira futura deles/delas. Eu procurei referências literárias desde 1980 que foca na relação entre a estabilidade de dividendos e os lucros para ações ordinárias. Uma recente pesquisa analisa os benefícios de maximizar lucros de renda como ações com dividendos e tÍtulos com cupom na tentativa de melhorar o desempenho da carteira. A teoria é aquela enfocação em ações com dividendos estáveis, o investidor pode ganhar exposição a empresas saudáveis e prósperas. No final das contas, isto deveria proporcionar o investidor uma menor exposição a risco graças à estabilidade nos fluxos provenientes de dividendos. Essa estratégia seria benéfica a investidores com uma alta aversão ao risco.

Cette thèse étudie plusieurs aspects de la dynamique du rendement des actifs. Les trois premiers chapitres ont pour objet la formation des prix sur le marché de l'art. Le premier chapitre établit que les prix peuvent s'écarter temporairement, et de manière partiellement prévisible, de la valeur fondamentale. Cet article a été publié dans Economics Letters (Volume 122, Issue 3, pp. 432-434) et a été écrit avec Christophe Spaenjers et Luc Renneboog. Le chapitre 2 étudie la vitesse de transmission de l'information dans les prix agrégés du marché de l'art. Le chapitre 3 analyse la corrélation entre prix et volume et étaye des éléments concordant avec une hypothèse de bulles. Il a été écrit avec Luc Renneboog. Le chapitre 4 s'attache à la modélisation empirique de la prédictibilité d'indices boursiers sur quinze pays industrialisés. Il propose de combiner l'information donnée par chaque pays de façon à améliorer le pouvoir prédictif. / The doctoral thesis studies several aspects of asset returns dynamics. The first three chapters focus on returns in the fine art market. The first chapter provides evidence for the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices that induces short-term return predictability. The article has been published in Economics Letters (Volume 122, Issue 3, pp. 432-434), and was written together with Christophe Spaenjers and Luc Renneboog. Chapter 2 investigates how fast is information incorporated into aggregate art prices. Chapter 3 studies price-volume dynamics in the art market and documents evidence of bubble patterns in prices and is written with Luc Renneboog. Chapter 4 proposes a Bayesian estimation procedure that makes efficient use of cross-sectional information, and revisits the return predictability literature.