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The prediction of bus arrival time using Automatic Vehicle Location Systems dataJeong, Ran Hee 17 February 2005 (has links)
Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) is one component of Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS), and a major component of ATIS is travel time
information. The provision of timely and accurate transit travel time information is
important because it attracts additional ridership and increases the satisfaction of transit
users. The cost of electronics and components for ITS has been decreased, and ITS
deployment is growing nationwide. Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) Systems, which
is a part of ITS, have been adopted by many transit agencies. These allow them to track
their transit vehicles in real-time. The need for the model or technique to predict transit
travel time using AVL data is increasing. While some research on this topic has been
conducted, it has been shown that more research on this topic is required.
The objectives of this research were 1) to develop and apply a model to predict bus
arrival time using AVL data, 2) to identify the prediction interval of bus arrival time and
the probabilty of a bus being on time. In this research, the travel time prediction model
explicitly included dwell times, schedule adherence by time period, and traffic
congestion which were critical to predict accurate bus arrival times. The test bed was a
bus route running in the downtown of Houston, Texas. A historical based model,
regression models, and artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to
predict bus arrival time. It was found that the artificial neural network models performed
considerably better than either historical data based models or multi linear regression
models. It was hypothesized that the ANN was able to identify the complex non-linear
relationship between travel time and the independent variables and this led to superior
results.
Because variability in travel time (both waiting and on-board) is extremely important for
transit choices, it would also be useful to extend the model to provide not only estimates
of travel time but also prediction intervals. With the ANN models, the prediction
intervals of bus arrival time were calculated. Because the ANN models are non
parametric models, conventional techniques for prediction intervals can not be used.
Consequently, a newly developed computer-intensive method, the bootstrap technique
was used to obtain prediction intervals of bus arrival time.
On-time performance of a bus is very important to transit operators to provide quality
service to transit passengers. To measure the on-time performance, the probability of a
bus being on time is required. In addition to the prediction interval of bus arrival time,
the probability that a given bus is on time was calculated. The probability density
function of schedule adherence seemed to be the gamma distribution or the normal
distribution. To determine which distribution is the best fit for the schedule adherence, a
chi-squared goodness-of-fit test was used. In brief, the normal distribution estimates well
the schedule adherence. With the normal distribution, the probability of a bus being on
time, being ahead schedule, and being behind schedule can be estimated.
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AVL-BASED TRANSIT OPERATIONS CONTROLSun, Aichong January 2005 (has links)
This dissertation studies three public transit operations control strategies with automatic vehicle location (AVL) data available. Specifically, holding control, stop-skipping control and vehicle dispatching with swapping are investigated. Moreover, AVL data from Tucson, Arizona are employed to investigate the methodologies for deriving vehicle operating parameters.The problem of holding vehicles at multiple holding stations can be modeled as a convex mathematical programming problem which can be solved to near optimality by a proposed heuristic. A simulation study on the holding problem suggests that holding control based on the proposed problem formulation can effectively reduce the total passenger cost. Also, multiple holding stations may offer more opportunities to regularize vehicle headways so that holding vehicles at multiple stations can further reduce the passenger cost compared to holding vehicles only at a single station.Stop-skipping is investigated to respond more rapidly to vehicle disruptions occurring in the middle of a route. Based on a preliminary analysis of the basic stop-skipping policy, a policy alternative is constructed. The stop-skipping strategy is formulated separately for both policies as a nonlinear integer programming problem. The problem solution relies on an exhaustive search method. Another simulation study is conducted to examine how the performance of the two policies change with the passenger distribution pattern, the vehicle disruption location and length, and the vehicle travel time variability. The simulation result suggests selective superiority of the two policies.The vehicle dispatching problem investigates the potential of integrating real-time swapping into the vehicle dispatching strategies at a transit transfer terminal. With a hypothetical study design, simulation is employed again to evaluate the significance of real-time swapping by comparing the performance of a swapping-holding combined strategy with the holding-only strategy. A sensitivity analysis is also employed to compare these two strategies among key transit operating factors.Finally, using three different understandings (assumptions) of vehicle operating behavior, regression methods are proposed for using AVL data to derive the vehicle running speeds and passenger boarding rates, which serve as inputs to the operations control models. The regression results show that the day-specific operating behavior may not be appropriate, and that operating behavior combining both trip-specific and day-specific effects seems to be slightly superior to the trip-specific behavior overall.
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Desenvolvimento de sistema AVL com regras para atualização de posição inteligente que melhora a representação dos trajetos / AVL system development with intelligent position update rules that enhance tracks representationsAmarante, Rogério Rodrigues, 1972- 16 March 2007 (has links)
Orientador: Jorge Luiz Alves Trabanco / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-08T17:56:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
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Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: As empresas que precisam gerir suas frotas de veículos estão cada vez mais utilizando sistemas AVL (Localização Automática de Veículos). Com este sistema é possível conhecer a posição de um veículo em uma central de monitoramento, permitindo, com isso, as mais variadas aplicações dentro de atividades como segurança, logística, atendimento de emergência, etc.. Os produtos AVL disponíveis, normalmente são configurados com taxas de atualização que variam de 1 até 15 minutos, a fim de proporcionar uma boa relação custo benefício para as aplicações procuradas atualmente. Contudo, este formato utilizado, mostra com deficiência quais vias trafegou um veículo em áreas urbanizadas. Aumentar a taxa de atualização significa aumento de gastos com comunicação e armazenamento de dados, em contrapartida a redução da freqüência agrava a representação do trajeto, principalmente em áreas urbanas. Assim, este trabalho propõe apresentar o desenvolvimento de um sistema AVL com uma nova abordagem na atualização de posição, que além de representar melhor os trajetos rastreados dentro de áreas urbanas, evite o aumento significativo de gastos, pois quanto maior aderência do mesmo em relação ao percurso efetuado pelo veículo, maior o valor agregado às aplicações. Esta melhoria na representação dos trajetos poderá possibilitar a criação de novas abordagens de utilização de sistemas AVL que necessitam de mais precisão / Abstract: The use of AVL (Automatic Vehicle Locator) systems by companies that need to manage their fIeet has considerably increased. It is possible with this system to know the vehicle position in a dispatch center, al/owing several applications like safety and security, logistics, and emergency attendance. The available AVL products are usual/y configured with update rates between 1 and 15 minutes, in order to provide a good cost/benefit relationship. However, this update rate shows with deficiencies the route that a vehicle went through in urban areas. Increasing the update rate also increases expenses with communication and storage data; and, on the other hand, decreasing the frequency diminishes the representation of tracks, especial/y in urban areas. Thus, this master thesis proposes to show the AVL deve/opment with a new approach in position update, that aiso better represents the tracks in urban areas, without having significant increase of expenses, therefore, the better adherence to the tracked trajectory, the greater will be the perceived value of the system applications. This trajectory representation enhancement will make possible the creation of new approaches in AVL systems utilization that need accuracy / Mestrado / Transportes / Mestre em Engenharia Civil
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Bus Bunching Prediction and Transit Route Demand Estimation Using Automatic Vehicle Location Data / バスロケーションデータを用いたバスバンチングの予測と路線バス利用者の需要推定に関する研究Sun, Wenzhe 25 May 2020 (has links)
京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22653号 / 工博第4737号 / 新制||工||1740(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 山田 忠史, 教授 藤井 聡, 准教授 SCHMOECKER Jan-Dirk / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM
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Using Archived Bus Automatic Vehicle Location Data to Identify Indications of Recurrent CongestionChen, Cheng 26 July 2013 (has links)
No description available.
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Evaluation of transit signal priority effectiveness using automatic vehicle location dataSundstrom, Carl Andrew 01 April 2008 (has links)
Transit Signal Priority (TSP) is an operational strategy that can speed the movement of in-service transit vehicles (typically bus, light rail, or streetcar) through traffic signals. By reducing control delay at signalized intersections, TSP can improve schedule adherence and travel time efficiency while minimizing impacts to normal traffic operations. These benefits improve the quality of service thereby making it more attractive to choice riders. A TSP system can also allow for fewer buses on the same due to travel time reductions and increased reliability, thus reducing transit operating costs.
Much of the previous research on TSP has focused on signal control strategies and bus stop placement with little of it analyzing the effectiveness of the system using actual data. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the system using a bus route corridor in Portland, Oregon through real-time Automatic Vehicle Locator data. Key measures that TSP is promoted to improve are evaluated, including travel time, schedule adherence and variability. The TSP system on data was collected for two weeks and is compared to an adjacent two weeks of bus data with the TSP system turned off such that there is no skewing of data due to changes in traffic volumes or transit ridership.
This research has shown, that on certain corridors there may be little to no benefit towards TSP implementation and may possibly provide some disbenefit. The direct comparison for TSP on and off scenarios completed for this research yielded no significant differences in reduction in travel time or schedule adherence performance. An additional interesting result was that the standard deviation of the results did not have any specific tendencies with the TSP on or off. Based on these findings, recommendations are made to increase the effectiveness of the system.
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Utilização do sistema de posicionamento global para monitoramento de transporte fretado / Monitoring charter bus service using global positioning systemSilva, Camila Maria de Paiva e 22 December 2006 (has links)
Orientador: Maria Teresa Françoso / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-09T02:35:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
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Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: Este trabalho visa destacar as vantagens e os pontos que devem ser tratados em um sistema AVL (Automatic Vehicle Location), baseado nas tecnologias de posicionamento por satélites e transmissão de dados via rede de telefonia móvel, quando aplicado ao transporte coletivo por fretamento. Neste sentido, três linhas de ônibus fretado que atendem funcionários da Universidade Estadual de Campinas foram monitorados por um período de 07 semanas no trajeto bairro-universidade. O módulo de rastreamento possibilitou a coleta eletrônica de dados de operação do veículo. Também foram registrados, manual e eletronicamente, informações sobre os usuários do serviço. Os dados coletados foram transmitidos via GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) para a central de controle e disponibilizados na rede mundial de computadores em tempo real. Foram verificados os pontos de parada e os itinerários e foi feita uma análise financeira das linhas de fretamento da Unicamp monitoradas durante a pesquisa. O monitoramento de transporte coletivo fretado, relatado neste trabalho de maneira provavelmente inédita, possibilitou a obtenção de dados para gerência e controle do serviço de fretamento. Observou-se, como esperado, que o sistema permite de maneira eficiente o acompanhamento da operação com registro de posições e velocidades desenvolvidas pelo veículo monitorado e dos locais de parada e itinerários cumpridos. No caso em questão, entre as vantagens obtidas destaca-se a possibilidade de realizar uma fiscalização mais efetiva, tanto pela operadora do transporte, como pela universidade, controlando os horários programados, os itinerários e os passageiros. São apresentadas sugestões para melhoria do sistema de rastreamento utilizado / Abstract: This research aims to point out the advantages and what still needs to be improved in an Automatic Vehicle Location ¿ AVL - system applied to the charter bus service. The sample of three charter bus lines serving Campinas University (Unicamp)¿s workers on their way from home to office, in a seven weak period. The AVL equipment was used to collect electronic operational data. Users information were collected automatically and manually. These data were sent through GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) to the control station and become available in the internet in real time. The itinerary and the bus stops were verified, and a financial analysis of these three lines were made. This could conclude that the system allows monitoring vehicle position and speed, bus stops, traffic points, etc. - supplying data for management and control of the service. It has showed that AVL, when applied in the Unicamp¿s fleet, support better management and control of routes and timetables. In this work it is also proposed improvements in the equipment that has been used. / Mestrado / Transportes / Mestre em Engenharia Civil
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Evaluating ITS Investments in Public Transportation: A Proposed Framework and Plan for the OmniLink Route Deviation ServiceLee, Jennifer Ann 09 September 2002 (has links)
When implementing an intelligent transportation system (ITS), stakeholders often overlook the importance of evaluating the system once it is in place. Determining the extent to which the objectives of an investment have been met is important to not only the agency involved, but also to other agencies, so that lessons are learned and mistakes are not repeated in future projects. An effective evaluation allows a transit provider to identify and address areas that could use improvement. Agencies implementing ITS investments often have different goals, needs, and concerns that they hope their project will address and consequently the development of a generic evaluation plan is difficult to develop. While it is recognized that the U.S. Department of Transportation has developed guidelines to aid agencies in evaluating such investments, this research is intended to complement these guidelines by assisting in the evaluation of a site specific ITS investment. It presents an evaluation framework and plan that provides a systematic method for assessing the potential impacts associated with the project by defining objectives, measures, analysis recommendations, and data requirements. The framework developed specifically addresses the ITS investment on the OmniLink local route deviation bus service in Prince William County, Virginia, but could be used as a basis for the evaluation of similar ITS investments. The OmniLink ITS investment includes an automatic vehicle location (AVL) system, mobile data terminals (MDTs), and computer-aided dispatch (CAD) technology. / Master of Science
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Modelagem do comportamento espaço-temporal de veículo rastreado. / Modelling the space-temporal behavior of tracked vehicle.Shinohara, Eduardo Jun 08 October 2013 (has links)
No Brasil existe a perspectiva de crescimento expressivo do volume de dados a ser processado pelas prestadoras de serviços de rastreamento em decorrência do aumento natural do uso de sistemas de rastreamento e também para atender a Resolução 330 de 2009 e Deliberação 135 de 30/01/2013 do Conselho Nacional de Trânsito (CONTRAN). Este crescimento gera a necessidade da incorporação de ferramentas analíticas nos sistemas de gerenciamento do rastreamento e monitoramento de veículos e na gestão de risco, para aumentar a sua eficiência e atender o crescimento do mercado. O objetivo desta dissertação é de propor uma metodologia que permita caracterizar o comportamento de movimentação de um veículo, com a finalidade de auxiliar o processo de tomada de decisão no gerenciamento e monitoramento de veículos. A caracterização do comportamento de movimentação do veículo foi feita pela geração de um modelo analítico do comportamento de movimentação, coletando os dados pretéritos da posição espacial e temporal. Este modelo baseia-se na movimentação e considera os aspectos comportamentais espaciais e temporais de forma independente. A caracterização do comportamento gera informações para identificar o comportamento espacial e temporal do veículo monitorado para um determinado nível de confiabilidade. / In Brazil there is the prospect of growth in the volume of data to be processed by the tracking service providers due to the natural increase of the use of tracking systems and also to meet the Resolution 330 of 2009 and Resolution 135 of 01.30.2013 of the National Traffic Council (CONTRAN), due to this growth the need of incorporation of analytical tools in systems management tracking and monitoring of vehicles and risk management are created, to increase their efficiency and meet market growth. This study objective is to propose a methodology to characterize the moving vehicle behavior, in order to assist the process of decision making in management and vehicle tagging. The vehicle handling behavior will be characterized by generating an analytical model of the vehicle movement, collecting bygone data of spatial position and time. This model will consist of a motion model taking into account that the spatial and temporal aspects of behavior are taken independently. The behavior characterization generates reports able to identify the spatial and temporal behavior of the monitored vehicle for a given level of reliability.
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Os sistemas Automatic Vehicle Location e o controle de jornada de trabalho do motorista rodoviário: mutação normativa do artigo 62, I, da CLTHermida, Denis Domingues 10 August 2012 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2012-08-10 / Technologies based on mobile devices, telematics wireless networks and sensors have given rise to changes in the regime of visibility which is the way people see and are seen in society. At present the regime of visibility is based not only on the physical space or on the limits of human vision, but also on cyber space, the so-called enlarged space . The concept of enlarged space includes representations in the form of images, sounds and even tactile sensations relating to a reality that may be physically far from the individual. Despite the physical distance, the enlarged space allows individuals not only to have access to this reality but also to interact with it. The regime of visibility is a value appreciated by society in factual realities and therefore is part of the juridical experience and it should, in the light of 'ethicity', govern normatized facts when the legal norm is construed. Changes in the regime of visibility in a society may give rise to a change in the norm, which is to be understood as a change in the content of a norm despite the fact that the statute (the legal text) may remain unchanged. This is so especially for those legal rules which constitutive elements are based on visibility. Automatic Vehicle Location systems are an assembly of technologies and pieces of equipment which allow the position of a vehicle to be known. These systems also allow related operations to take place such as transmission of information available on board, and at their current stage, these systems also allow their users to have access to reliable and highly accurate information in real time. The systems managers therefore have access to an enlarged space of the work environment which goes well beyond the limited physical space of the company s headquarters. This new space is limitless and managers are able to monitor the vehicle and the driver as they travel, and to monitor the driver s behavior during work activities outside the headquarters. The Automatic Vehicle Location systems available in the Brazilian market allow employers to control the work hours, compliance with orders and the quality of service of driver employees who work on the road. It is no longer justifiable to rule out the right to overtime pay of this type of employees based on Item I of Article 62 of CLT, Consolidation of Labor Laws. The change in the regime of visibility has given rise to a change in the legal norm construed based on Item I of Article 62 of CLT, Consolidation of Labor Laws / As tecnologias fundadas em dispositivos móveis, redes telemáticas sem fio e sensores geraram mudança no regime de visibilidade, que é a forma como os indivíduos vêem e são vistos na sociedade. Atualmente, o regime de visibilidade baseia-se não exclusivamente no espaço físico ou nos limites de alcance do olho humano, mas também no espaço informacional, que é denominado espaço ampliado e conceituado como representações, sob a forma de imagens, sons e até mesmo de sensações táteis, de uma realidade que natural e fisicamente seria distante do cidadão comum, permitindo ao indivíduo não só ter efetivo acesso a essa realidade, como também com ela interagir. O regime de visibilidade é um valor cultuado pela sociedade em realidades factuais que se apresentam e, portanto, faz parte da experiência jurídica, devendo, frente à eticidade , incidir sobre os fatos normados quando da construção da norma jurídica. A mudança, numa sociedade, do regime de visibilidade é capaz de gerar mutação normativa, entendida como modificação do conteúdo de uma norma jurídica apesar da manutenção do enunciado prescritivo (texto legislativo), especialmente naquelas normas jurídicas cujos elementos constitutivos baseiam-se na visibilidade. Os sistemas Automatic Vehicle Location são resultado de uma montagem de tecnologias e equipamentos que permitem o conhecimento da posição de um determinado veículo, bem como a realização de operações associadas, como a transmissão de informações disponíveis a bordo, sendo que o atual estado da técnica de tais sistemas permite aos seus usuários o acesso a informações fidedignas com alto grau de precisão e em tempo real, proporcionando ao seu gestor um espaço ampliado do ambiente de trabalho, que extrapola em muito o limitado território físico da sede da empresa e é ilimitado, acompanhando o deslocamento do veículo e de seu condutor, bem como revelando o comportamento do condutor no transcurso da atividade laboral externa. Através dos sistemas Automatic Vehicle Location disponíveis no mercado brasileiro é absolutamente possível ao empregador controlar a freqüência, o cumprimento de ordens e a qualidade do serviço do empregado-motorista rodoviário com atividade eminentemente externa, não mais se justificando o afastamento do direito a horas extras à essa categoria de empregados sob o fundamento de enquadramento no inciso I do artigo 62 da CLT. Tem-se, pois, que a mudança no regime de visibilidade gerou mutação na norma jurídica construída a partir do inciso I do artigo 62 da CLT
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