Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o uso do método das médias móveis na atomização de cádmio, crômio e chumbo utilizando filamento de tungstênio de 150 W (OSRAM) como atomizador eletrotérmico. Realizou-se um estudo sistemático da influência da altura de observação, da temperatura e taxa de aquecimento na atomização dos analitos e a viabilidade do uso do método das médias móveis no tratamento dos sinais transientes gerados na atomização. O estudo da influência da altura de observação foi realizado posicionado-se o filamento no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm abaixo do feixe de radiação. A influência da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foi estudada utilizando temperaturas na etapa de atomização entre 1890 e 2780 °C. O método das médias móveis foi aplicado aos sinais transientes gerados na atomização, com o filamento posicionado no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm e com temperatura de atomização entre 2060 e 2780 °C, utilizando fatores 0, 3, 5, 7 e 9. No estudo da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foram aplicadas ddps no software de controle na etapa de atomização entre 4 e 12 V. As soluções usadas no desenvolvimento deste trabalho foram preparadas em meio 0,1 % v/v HNO3. Utilizou-se como gás de proteção a mistura de 90% Ar+10 % H2. Para o cádmio, recomenda-se a utilização da altura de observação de 1 mm, para o chumbo recomenda-se 0 mm e para o crômio a altura recomendada é a de 2 mm. Os estudos comprovaram a dependência dos sinais de absorção atômica em altura de pico com a temperatura e a taxa de aquecimento. O cádmio foi o analito em que a taxa de aquecimento foi a menos crítica para a atomização, enquanto que o crômio foi o mais afetado pela variação da taxa de aquecimento. Não foi observada diferença significativa entre os sinais de cádmio com alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. Para o chumbo, a diferença entre os sinais com altura de observação de 0 e 1 mm foi constante em todas as taxas de aquecimento estudadas. A 2 mm a diferença entre os sinais aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. Para o crômio, não ocorreu uma diferença significativa entre os sinais nas alturas de 1 e 2 mm com atomização até 2180 °C. Nos três analitos a sensibilidade aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. O método das médias móveis permitiu a diminuição da variação dos sinais transientes do branco e do ruído. Para o cádmio, não ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método com a aplicação das médias móveis em nenhuma condição. Para o chumbo e crômio, ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método nas alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. O limite de detecção instrumental apresentou uma melhora significativa para os três elementos em todas as condições estudadas. / The aim of this paper was to evaluate the use of moving averages of cadmium, chromium and lead transient atomic absorption signals generated by 150 W (OSRAM) tungsten coil electrothermal atomizer. A systematic study dealing with the influence of observation height, temperature and heating rate on atomization was carried through in order to demonstrate the viability of moving averages in the treatment of the transient signals during the atomization step. The influence of observation height was carried out with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), at 1 and 2 mm below the radiation beam. The influence of atomization temperature and heating rate were evaluated between 1890 °C (3.3 K.ms-1) and 2780 °C (9,3 K.ms-1). The transient moving averages were obtained by using factors 0, 3, 5, 7 and 9, with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), 1 and 2 mm and with atomization between 2060 and 2780 °C. For obtaining different temperatures and heating rates, an appropriate power supply was used by applying 4 to 12 V (40 to 120 W) to the atomizer during atomization and a mixture 90% Ar+10% H2 was used as purge/atomization gas. Blanks and reference solutions were prepared in 0,1% v/v HNO3. Best results for cadmium were obtained at 1 mm. For lead it is recommended 0 mm and for chromium 2 mm. The studies had proven the dependence of peak height absorbance signals with temperature and heating rate. Cadmium was the analyte where the heating rate was to less critical for the atomization, whereas chromium was affected by the variation of the heating rate. Significant differences were not observed between cadmium signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm. For lead, the difference between the absorbance signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm were constant in all tested heating rates. At 2 mm the difference between signals increased by increasing the heating rates. For chromium, a significant difference was not noticed between peak height absorbance signals at 1 and 2 mm with up to 2180 °C. As expected, sensitivity increased for all three analytes by increasing the heating rate. The moving average is a powerful mathematical treatment for minimizing unpredictable fluctuations of the base line during the chosen time interval for measuring the transient absorbance signals. With the exception of Cd, where no improvements on the method detection limit were noticed, the application of the moving average for the lead and chromium showed 3 to 4 fold improvement in the LDmet at 0 and 1 mm observation heights, respectively. The LDinstr presented a significant improvement (3 to 6 fold) for the three analytes in all studied conditions.

Apesar do reconhecimento da relevante contribuição epidemiológica dos registros de condenação em abatedouros, é escassa a divulgação sobre estudos referentes às circunstâncias relacionadas com as apreensões em matadouros de frangos. Avaliaram-se dez anos de registros oficiais de condenação em um abatedouro sob inspeção federal no Estado de São Paulo, obtendo-se informações a respeito de 24 causas de apreensão. Análises de tendência, sazonalidade e de componente cíclico foram efetuadas para 21 variáveis. Isto é discutido frente às dificuldades na obtenção sistemática e fidedigna de dados, propondo-se a utilização de programas informatizados para análise dos registros mensais em tempo real, o que possibilita a reavaliação dos programas de controle para as enfermidades desencadeantes das apreensões. Abordaram-se aspectos legislativos da inspeção de aves, enfocando limitações internacionais e particularidades de alguns processos patológicos, sugerindo adequação em determinados procedimentos sanitários. Destacou-se a comparação de dados locais com apreensões de vários países e o impacto interpretativo de diferentes metodologias de análise na concepção das ocorrências. As avaliações permitiram concluir que abordagens informatizadas para sazonalidade e ciclicidade nas séries temporais de apreensões podem incrementar o poder da verificação de programas HACCP. Além disso, observou-se maior poder para revelação de padrões, pela associação dos dois tipos de análise. / There is a lack of studies for circumstances related to poultry abattoir condemnations, despite its wide recognition as a relevant source of epidemiological information. Ten year official condemnation records were issued for one federal inspected slaughterhouse in São Paulo State, Brazil, gathering data about 24 condemnation causes. Global, seasonal and cyclical trends were evaluated for 21 variables, which were further debated concerning trouble reporting of systematic reliable data. Furthermore, the study suggests software packages utilization for real-time monthly data analysis, which in turn leads to control schedules reevaluation for condemnation disease determinants. Legislative approach to poultry inspection, focusing on international limitations and pathological process features were asked for sanitary procedures adequacy. The local and several countries data comparison, besides different analytical methodology impact were highlighted. The conclusion assigns that time series seasonal and cyclical computerized analysis can enhance HACCP\'s verification power and better reveal patterns when combined.

This thesis is focused on selected methods of the technical analysis and their application on foreign exchange rate. The goal is to evaluate the usability of individual methods in the field of foreign exchange market. The main emphasis is on moving averages, but also other methods are tested. For the purpose of evaluation is used the profitability of tested methods or other suitable characteristics. The methods of technical analysis are theoretically described in the first part of this thesis and in the second part follows their testing with the use of real data and the evaluation of their performance.

The diploma thesis deals with the design of an automatic trading system for trading on the market of selected commodities, constructed with the help of technical indicators. It also includes system optimization using genetic algorithms to maximize profit and stability. Finally, an economic evaluation of the achieved results is prepared.

The 1996 and 2002 Farm Bill changes in milk support price legislation deregulated the market and milk prices are more volatile than ever. The use of a mechanism to reduce farmers' exposure to volatile milk prices has therefore become essential. This study evaluates the impact of two hedging strategies, one conservative and the other an intermediate one (more sophisticated). Optimal parameters for the two strategies are searched over a period of 5 years. Then, the performance, in terms of increased profitability and reduced variation, is assessed and the best performer is chosen and applied to an out-of-sample dataset. With the in-sample data, both strategies generate higher mean monthly profits than with the no-hedging option. Comparison of both strategies indicates that the intermediate strategy outperforms the conservative one in terms of higher profitability and lower variance. Out-of-sample results confirm the findings of the in-sample results. The additional profits and the reduction in volatility can make the difference between keeping a farm profitable and bankruptcy. / Master of Science

In this educational study, Caucasian and minority learners’ grade point averages and overall academic success were examined at learning institutions. Several minorities experienced problems with completing college courses at universities and community colleges. Individuals from various racial backgrounds had school enrollment issues compared to Caucasian students without these same issues. This analysis revealed factors that contributed to these learners’ decreased academic attainment. For this study, racial groups were the focus along with their need to improve their impoverished conditions. Minority students needed more educational services such as peer tutoring and academic counseling. These services offered learners the opportunity to expand their educational knowledge and support system (Cohen & Brawer, 2003; Engstrom & Tinto, 2008; Lotkowski, Robbins, & Noeth, 2004). Also, rural and non-rural community colleges and universities were emphasized in this research analysis. In rural areas, minorities had a difficult way of life compared to non-rural regions. For example, Hispanics in a rural community in Ellis, Iowa experienced lower wages. Within Ellis, Iowa, Hispanics had limited employment growth and college degrees (Carr & Kefalas, 2009). Also, this research focused on Caucasian and minority learners’ who attended a junior college. Mississippi’s community colleges were assessed for students’ academic performances. In this examination, the one-way analysis of variance was selected to analyze the minority and Caucasian groups’ statistical data. In addition, the Welch, Post Hoc, and Tukey HSD tests were used to examine the racial groups in this educational study. For this study, only data from Mississippi State University was used for academic purposes. These learners were from 15 different Mississippi community colleges and the students transferred to Mississippi State University. In this study, the minorities and Caucasians transferred to Mississippi State University in the fall semester of 2011. Learners’ first semester cumulative grade point averages were analyzed. Comparing Caucasians with African Americans and Caucasians with Hispanics showed significant differences between their statistical scores. This study ended with suggestions to further evaluate minorities’ grade point averages and social economic status. Recommendations included: college incentives for low income students and single parents. These students needed to attend educational programs such as learning workshops.

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No / Motivated by an extensive literature showing that government bond yields exhibit a strong non-Markov property, in the sense that moving averages of long-lagged yields significantly improve the predictability of excess bond returns. We then develop a systematic approach of constructing non-Markov Gaussian dynamic term structure models (GDTSMs) under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) framework. Compared to the current literature, our approach is more flexible and parsimonious, enabling us to estimate an economically significant non-Markov effect that helps predict excess bond returns both in-sample and out-of-sample.

The thesis parts from the view that statistics starts with data, and starts by introducing the data sets studied: marine benthic species counts and chemical measurements made at a set of sites in the Norwegian Ekofisk oil field, with replicates and annually repeated. An introductory chapter details the sampling procedure and shows with reliability calculations that the (transformed) chemical variables have excellent reliability, whereas the biological variables have poor reliability, except for a small subset of abundant species. Transformed chemical variables are shown to be approximately normal. Bootstrap methods are used to assess whether the biological variables follow a Poisson distribution, and lead to the conclusion that the Poisson distribution must be rejected, except for rare species. A separate chapter details more work on the distribution of the species variables: truncated and zero-inflated Poisson distributions as well as Poisson mixtures are used in order to account for sparseness and overdispersion. Species are thought to respond to environmental variables, and regressions of the abundance of a few selected species onto chemical variables are reported. For rare species, logistic regression and Poisson regression are the tools considered, though there are problems of overdispersion. For abundant species, random coefficient models are needed in order to cope with intraclass correlation. The environmental variables, mainly heavy metals, are highly correlated, leading to multicollinearity problems. The next chapters use a multivariate approach, where all species data is now treated simultaneously. The theory of correspondence analysis is reviewed, and some theoretical results on this method are reported (bounds for singular values, centring matrices). An applied chapter discusses the correspondence analysis of the species data in detail, detects outliers, addresses stability issues, and considers different ways of stacking data matrices to obtain an integrated analysis of several years of data, and to decompose variation into a within-sites and between-sites component. More than 40 % of the total inertia is due to variation within stations. Principal components analysis is used to analyse the set of chemical variables. Attempts are made to integrate the analysis of the biological and chemical variables. A detailed theoretical development shows how continuous variables can be mapped in an optimal manner as supplementary vectors into a correspondence analysis biplot. Geometrical properties are worked out in detail, and measures for the quality of the display are given, whereas artificial data and data from the monitoring survey are used to illustrate the theory developed. The theory of display of supplementary variables in biplots is also worked out in detail for principal component analysis, with attention for the different types of scaling, and optimality of displayed correlations. A theoretical chapter follows that gives an in depth theoretical treatment of canonical correspondence analysis, (linearly constrained correspondence analysis, CCA for short) detailing many mathematical properties and aspects of this multivariate method, such as geometrical properties, biplots, use of generalized inverses, relationships with other methods, etc. Some applications of CCA to the survey data are dealt with in a separate chapter, with their interpretation and indication of the quality of the display of the different matrices involved in the analysis. Weighted principal component analysis of weighted averages is proposed as an alternative for CCA. This leads to a better display of the weighted averages of the species, and in the cases so far studied, also leads to biplots with a higher amount of explained variance for the environmental data. The thesis closes with a bibliography and outlines some suggestions for further research, such as a the generalization of canonical correlation analysis for working with singular covariance matrices, the use partial least squares methods to account for the excess of predictors, and data fusion problems to estimate missing biological data.