This thesis is concerned with two main questions. Do systemic banking crises substantially affect the income distribution in a country? Is income inequality a destabilising factor for the macro-economy? In order to answer the first question, this thesis examines a panel of 26 countries since 1900 and assembles a new database of crises, finding that the impact of major banking crises on the national income shares detained by the income groups within the richest decile is mostly small in magnitude. Indeed, the estimated impact is never bigger than a standard deviation of the specific top shares under investigation. Results are also confirmed in a separate analysis for the United States and are robust to a series of checks. These findings lend indirect support to the structuralist hypothesis that only substantial changes in government policies and institutional frameworks can bring about radical changes in income distribution. The analysis also highlights interesting heterogeneity across different income groups, country groups and time periods. The second question is addressed by making use of a newly assembled database on different dimensions of economic inequality. The new data helps to reject the statistical validity of the hypotheses that either growing inequality or a high level of inequality may systematically precede the onset of major banking crises. In addition, simulations based on the UK Family Expenditure Survey data find that even a full equalisation of income would increase the aggregate consumption by 3 percentage points at most. These findings, taken together, point out that an increase in income inequality may not concur to reduce the pressure on aggregate demand or be adduced as a structural factor of financial instability. Nonetheless, the evidence is not yet clear cut as the work further documents that periods of increasing income inequality in the UK were also associated with a reduction of the saving rates across the whole income distribution since 1968. The analysis contends that such evidence of under-saving behaviour may be consistent with the relative income hypothesis and some of its recent formulations such as the ’expenditure cascades’ theory.

The thesis examines potential sources of currency crisis, banking crisis and twin crisis in a region of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe and Baltics. The text assumes some basic knowledge of the theories of financial crisis and, thus, ommits some relevant details in the theoretical parts. The thesis aids at fading variables, which could signal vurnerability of a country to a curency, banking and twin crisis. In the second chapter we introduce a financial crisis typology. The text also briefly shows the theoretical and empirical studies of the financial crisis and introduces definitions of currency, banking and twin crisis. In the third chapter we identify the periods of financial crisis in the given region. Then we introduce the explanatory variables. In the fourth chapter we estimate logit model to explain the conditional probability of all the three types of financial crisis. In the fifth chapter we estimate the out-of-sample conditional probability of occurring crisis. In the end we discuss the results and possible recommendation for economic policy or investors. We find that some macroeconomic variables are significant when explaining financial crisis. For all three types of financial crisis these variables were significant: Share of total foreign debt to foreign reserves, interest rate differential, excessive credit expansion (its share to GDP).

O nível de risco sistêmico no sistema financeiro tem sido objeto de constante preocupação no âmbito de organismos internacionais e autoridades de supervisão. As crises financeiras ocorridas em países da América Latina, do Sudeste Asiático, na Rússia, e em diversos outros, causaram vultosos prejuízos econômicos e custos sociais elevados. As pesquisas referentes ao assunto têm buscado encontrar características comuns que possam sinalizar antecipadamente a proximidade dessas crises. Até o momento, as variáveis utilizadas são de natureza econômica, como reservas internacionais, taxa de câmbio e endividamento externo de curto prazo. Frente a essa constatação, este estudo buscou mensurar o nível de risco sistêmico no setor bancário com a utilização de variáveis contábeis e econômicas. Por meio das variáveis econômicas, relativas às taxas de juros e de câmbio, e das variáveis contábeis, representativas da qualidade do crédito e da liquidez, foi possível construir indicadores de riscos que, juntamente com outros de natureza puramente contábil, foram submetidos à análise de regressão logística, a fim de verificar a significância estatística desses indicadores, bem como a existência de modelos capazes de aferir a probabilidade de determinado sistema bancário ser classificado como suscetível ou não à ocorrência de crise. Os resultados alcançados revelaram a existência de indicadores contábeis e de riscos capazes de discriminar os sistemas bancários dos países componentes da amostra pelo nível de risco. As variáveis contábeis e econômicas mais associadas à ocorrência de crises são relacionadas com a qualidade dos créditos, o volume de resultados e o nível de taxa de juros. Todos os indicadores construídos com base nessas variáveis foram identificados como relevantes no processo de classificação, destacando-se os relacionados à volatilidade da inadimplência, à volatilidade da rentabilidade e à volatilidade da taxa de juros, assim como à média da rentabilidade e à média do risco de crédito. Corroborando essa evidência, as equações compostas pelos indicadores citados apresentaram percentuais de acerto nas classificações superiores a 90%. Adicionalmente à correta separação dos grupos, as classificações dos países foram ponderadas pelo índice de risco sistêmico (IRS), que expressa a probabilidade de pertencer a determinado grupo. O ordenamento dos países pelo grau de risco sistêmico no setor bancário fornece parâmetro de comparação significativo para a tomada de decisão calibrada à exigência de cada situação. Por meio dele, é possível saber qual país apresenta maior ou menor risco sistêmico. Além disso, o acompanhamento dos IRS de um país no tempo expõe as tendências e os pontos críticos, os quais servem de subsídios à atuação das autoridades responsáveis pela estabilidade e funcionamento do sistema, tanto do país em foco como dos países relacionados. / The systemic risk in the financial system has been a constant concern for the international institutions and supervisory authorities. The financial crises occurred in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Russia, and other countries, have caused significant economic damages and high social costs. The related researches have tried to find common characteristics able to early warn the proximity of crises. Up to now, the variables that have been used come from economic features, like international reserves, foreign exchange rate, and external debt. Considering the high correlation between the financial system and the economic health, the objective of this study is to measure the systemic risk of the banking system, utilizing accounting and economic variables together. Through the volatilities of economic variables, like interest rate and foreign exchange rate, and accounting variables, representatives of credit quality and liquidity, it was possible to build indicators comprising risk factors. These indicators, added to simple accounting indicators, were submitted to logistic regression analysis, in order to test the statistic significance of them, and to verify the existence of a model to evaluate the probability of any banking system be classified as susceptible, or not, to financial crises. The results exposed the existence of accounting and risk indicators capable to discriminate banking systems according to the risk level. The accounting and economic variables most associated to financial crises are related to credit quality, earnings, and interest rate level. All of indicators composed by these variables showed to be relevant in the classification process, highlighting those related to the volatility of non-performing loans, profitability, and interest rate, as well those representatives of the profitability and credit risk means. Confirming that, the equations resulted in correct classification above 90%. In addition to the correct segregation between groups, the countries classifications were weighted by the systemic risk index (IRS), which expresses the probability to become to each group. The classification of countries by the level of systemic risk provides parameters for comparison of situations and to take actions adjusted to the severity of each one. Through these indexes (IRS), it is possible to recognize which country has more or less systemic risk, and to monitor trends and critical points, which are so important to the authorities responsible for the financial system stability.

Depuis que la libéralisation financière a été adoptée par la plupart des pays de la région Moyen Orient et Afrique du Nord (MENA), le nombre de crises bancaires n’a pas cessé d’augmenter. Ce qui nous amène à analyser la relation entre libéralisation financière et les crises bancaires. Notre thèse s’attache à mettre en évidence le rôle important de la libéralisation financière sur les crises bancaires. Ce travail traite l’une des principales causes de l’échec de processus de libéralisation financière, à savoir la négligence du rôle primordial que jouent les institutions juridiques, économiques et politiques dans la réalisation de la stabilité financière. Afin de démontrer l’importance de l’organisation institutionnelle, nous avons vérifié l’impact négatif des défaillances institutionnelles présentes dans les pays de la région MENA sur l’occurrence des crises bancaires systémiques. L’objectif de notre recherche est de démontrer que les pays de la région MENA détiennent des caractéristiques institutionnelles très différentes et que pour favoriser l’application des réformes financières libérales, il est désormais indispensable d’envisager des réformes institutionnelles et règlementaires bien adéquates avec les conditions sociales, politiques de chacun des pays de la région MENA. / Since financial liberalization has been adopted by most countries of the Region Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the number of banking crises has not ceased to increase. This leads us to analyze the relationship between financial liberalization and banking crises. Our thesis aims to highlight the important role of financial liberalization on banking crises. This work addresses one of the main causes of the failure of liberalization process Financial namely the negligence of the primordial role played by legal institutions, economic and political in achieving financial stability. To demonstrate the importance of institutional organization, we verified the pejorative impact of institutional failure present in the countries of the MENA region on the occurrence of systemic banking crises. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that the countries of the MENA region hold very different institutional characteristics and to facilitate the implementation of financial reforms liberal, it is henceforth essential to consider well adequate institutional and regulatory reforms with, social political conditions of each country of the MENA region.

O objetivo central da presente dissertação é analisar criticamente a estrutura bancária brasileira durante e após a crise financeira de 2008, chamada de crise do subprime. Há certo consenso na literatura especializada de que o Brasil atravessou bem o colapso financeiro internacional, principalmente quando se coloca o desempenho da economia e dos bancos brasileiros lado a lado com o de outros países, notadamente os Estados Unidos. A explicação básica é a de que isso se deu, em grande medida, pelas condições concorrenciais e regulatórias previamente existentes no país. Entretanto, este estudo demonstra que o fenômeno da crise do subprime não foi completamente compreendido quando são feitas essas comparações, em especial quando se analisam as condições que propiciaram a origem da crise nos Estados Unidos. Ainda, vários dos fatores apontados como razão da solidez financeira brasileira foram criticados em outros momentos como sendo gargalos e deficiências históricos do setor bancário nacional. Por mais que se deva avaliar positivamente o comportamento das instituições financeiras no Brasil durante o período de dificuldades, essa análise deve ser feita com parcimônia para evitar a complacência acadêmica e operacional quanto à qualidade do sistema financeiro, visto que ainda são grandes os desafios a serem enfrentados para humanizar e democratizar as finanças no país. / The main purpose of this dissertation is to critically analyze the Brazilian banking structure during and after the financial crisis of 2008, called the subprime crisis. There is some consensus among authors that Brazil and its banks behaved well during the international financial turmoil, especially when compared to other countries, like the United States. The given explanation for that soundness is basically the competitive and regulatory conditions previously existing in the country. However, as this study tries to demonstrate, the subprime crisis was not fully understood when these comparisons between countries were (and are) made, especially when considering the conditions that led to the origin of the crisis in the United States. Besides, several factors cited as reasons for the Brazilian financial strength have been criticized in other moments as bottlenecks and historical flaws of the domestic banking sector. As much as one should positively evaluate the behavior of financial institutions in Brazil during the period of difficulties, such analysis should be done sparingly to avoid academic and operational complacency about the quality of the financial system, as there are still major challenges to be faced to humanize and democratize the country\'s finances.

El tema de esta tesis es Banca, concentrándose específicamente en el tema de Crisis Bancarias. El Capitulo 1 estudia las crisis bancarias que ocurren debido a problemas de asimetría de información entre los tomadores de préstamos. Dentro del marco propuesto, asimetría de información significa que los títulos sobre préstamos que el banco vende pueden tornarse ilíquidos y/o que pueden ocurrir caídas súbitas en el precio de los títulos. El Capitulo 2 analiza la política de resolución de crisis y muestra como las acciones de un Prestamista de Última Instancia durante una crisis pueden afectar la incidencia/probabilidad de sufrir futuras crisis bancarias. En particular, un Prestamista de Última Instancia más generoso puede contribuir a reducir la frecuencia de las crisis dado que los bancos eligiran proyectos más seguros. El ultimo capitulo de esta tesis vuelve a considerar el tema de la venta de préstamos, a través de títulos emitidos por el banco. En este capítulo se derivan aquellas condiciones para las cuales el mercado es sostenible, en el caso de que exista daño moral por parte de los bancos que realizan los préstamos. En una sección empírica mostramos que hay una relación negativa entre la fracción de préstamos retenida y la probabilidad de default. / The theme of this thesis is Banking, concentrating on banking crises. The first chapter looks at banking crises which occur because of problems of asymmetric information about borrowers. The asymmetric information means that the loan securities that the bank sells can become illiquid and there are sudden drops in securities prices. The second chapter looks at a crisis resolution policy and shows how the actions of the Lender of Last Resort in a crisis can affect the incidence of future banking crises, in particular that a more generous Lender of Last Resort can lead less frequent crises as banks choose safer projects. The final paper returns to the theme of loan sales. We derive conditions for when the market is sustainable in the face of moral hazard by the bank which makes the loan. In an empirical section we show that there is a negative relationship between the fraction of a loan retained and the probability of default

Ao longo da história econômica, assistiu-se a crises financeiras das quais derivaram crises bancárias com fortes efeitos sobre a atividade econômica, mesmo com estruturas regulatórias que amparam esse mercado. Recentemente, observa-se que o mercado financeiro atravessou mais uma dessas crises bancárias com as mesmas características históricas das demais, apesar de uma estrutura regulatória centrada num tripé de requerimento mínimo de capital, seguro-depósito e emprestador de última instância. A dissertação descreve a crise de 2007-2009 e seus elementos, e demonstra como essas instituições foram insuficientes para inibir ou mitigar a crise de crédito, em face de mudança do modus operantis do mercado bancário tradicional. / Throughout history there has been economic financial crises, which derived in banking crises with strong effects on economic activity, even with regulatory structures that support this market. Recently, the financial market has experienced more of these banking crises with the same historical features of the other, despite a regulatory framework that focuses on a tripod of minimum capital requirement, safe-deposit and lender of last resort. The dissertation describes the crisis of 2007-2009 and its elements and demonstrates how these institutions were insufficient to inhibit or mitigate credit crisis, in the face of changing modus operantis traditional bank market.

Ao longo da história econômica, assistiu-se a crises financeiras das quais derivaram crises bancárias com fortes efeitos sobre a atividade econômica, mesmo com estruturas regulatórias que amparam esse mercado. Recentemente, observa-se que o mercado financeiro atravessou mais uma dessas crises bancárias com as mesmas características históricas das demais, apesar de uma estrutura regulatória centrada num tripé de requerimento mínimo de capital, seguro-depósito e emprestador de última instância. A dissertação descreve a crise de 2007-2009 e seus elementos, e demonstra como essas instituições foram insuficientes para inibir ou mitigar a crise de crédito, em face de mudança do modus operantis do mercado bancário tradicional. / Throughout history there has been economic financial crises, which derived in banking crises with strong effects on economic activity, even with regulatory structures that support this market. Recently, the financial market has experienced more of these banking crises with the same historical features of the other, despite a regulatory framework that focuses on a tripod of minimum capital requirement, safe-deposit and lender of last resort. The dissertation describes the crisis of 2007-2009 and its elements and demonstrates how these institutions were insufficient to inhibit or mitigate credit crisis, in the face of changing modus operantis traditional bank market.

O nível de risco sistêmico no sistema financeiro tem sido objeto de constante preocupação no âmbito de organismos internacionais e autoridades de supervisão. As crises financeiras ocorridas em países da América Latina, do Sudeste Asiático, na Rússia, e em diversos outros, causaram vultosos prejuízos econômicos e custos sociais elevados. As pesquisas referentes ao assunto têm buscado encontrar características comuns que possam sinalizar antecipadamente a proximidade dessas crises. Até o momento, as variáveis utilizadas são de natureza econômica, como reservas internacionais, taxa de câmbio e endividamento externo de curto prazo. Frente a essa constatação, este estudo buscou mensurar o nível de risco sistêmico no setor bancário com a utilização de variáveis contábeis e econômicas. Por meio das variáveis econômicas, relativas às taxas de juros e de câmbio, e das variáveis contábeis, representativas da qualidade do crédito e da liquidez, foi possível construir indicadores de riscos que, juntamente com outros de natureza puramente contábil, foram submetidos à análise de regressão logística, a fim de verificar a significância estatística desses indicadores, bem como a existência de modelos capazes de aferir a probabilidade de determinado sistema bancário ser classificado como suscetível ou não à ocorrência de crise. Os resultados alcançados revelaram a existência de indicadores contábeis e de riscos capazes de discriminar os sistemas bancários dos países componentes da amostra pelo nível de risco. As variáveis contábeis e econômicas mais associadas à ocorrência de crises são relacionadas com a qualidade dos créditos, o volume de resultados e o nível de taxa de juros. Todos os indicadores construídos com base nessas variáveis foram identificados como relevantes no processo de classificação, destacando-se os relacionados à volatilidade da inadimplência, à volatilidade da rentabilidade e à volatilidade da taxa de juros, assim como à média da rentabilidade e à média do risco de crédito. Corroborando essa evidência, as equações compostas pelos indicadores citados apresentaram percentuais de acerto nas classificações superiores a 90%. Adicionalmente à correta separação dos grupos, as classificações dos países foram ponderadas pelo índice de risco sistêmico (IRS), que expressa a probabilidade de pertencer a determinado grupo. O ordenamento dos países pelo grau de risco sistêmico no setor bancário fornece parâmetro de comparação significativo para a tomada de decisão calibrada à exigência de cada situação. Por meio dele, é possível saber qual país apresenta maior ou menor risco sistêmico. Além disso, o acompanhamento dos IRS de um país no tempo expõe as tendências e os pontos críticos, os quais servem de subsídios à atuação das autoridades responsáveis pela estabilidade e funcionamento do sistema, tanto do país em foco como dos países relacionados. / The systemic risk in the financial system has been a constant concern for the international institutions and supervisory authorities. The financial crises occurred in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Russia, and other countries, have caused significant economic damages and high social costs. The related researches have tried to find common characteristics able to early warn the proximity of crises. Up to now, the variables that have been used come from economic features, like international reserves, foreign exchange rate, and external debt. Considering the high correlation between the financial system and the economic health, the objective of this study is to measure the systemic risk of the banking system, utilizing accounting and economic variables together. Through the volatilities of economic variables, like interest rate and foreign exchange rate, and accounting variables, representatives of credit quality and liquidity, it was possible to build indicators comprising risk factors. These indicators, added to simple accounting indicators, were submitted to logistic regression analysis, in order to test the statistic significance of them, and to verify the existence of a model to evaluate the probability of any banking system be classified as susceptible, or not, to financial crises. The results exposed the existence of accounting and risk indicators capable to discriminate banking systems according to the risk level. The accounting and economic variables most associated to financial crises are related to credit quality, earnings, and interest rate level. All of indicators composed by these variables showed to be relevant in the classification process, highlighting those related to the volatility of non-performing loans, profitability, and interest rate, as well those representatives of the profitability and credit risk means. Confirming that, the equations resulted in correct classification above 90%. In addition to the correct segregation between groups, the countries classifications were weighted by the systemic risk index (IRS), which expresses the probability to become to each group. The classification of countries by the level of systemic risk provides parameters for comparison of situations and to take actions adjusted to the severity of each one. Through these indexes (IRS), it is possible to recognize which country has more or less systemic risk, and to monitor trends and critical points, which are so important to the authorities responsible for the financial system stability.

Ao longo da história econômica, assistiu-se a crises financeiras das quais derivaram crises bancárias com fortes efeitos sobre a atividade econômica, mesmo com estruturas regulatórias que amparam esse mercado. Recentemente, observa-se que o mercado financeiro atravessou mais uma dessas crises bancárias com as mesmas características históricas das demais, apesar de uma estrutura regulatória centrada num tripé de requerimento mínimo de capital, seguro-depósito e emprestador de última instância. A dissertação descreve a crise de 2007-2009 e seus elementos, e demonstra como essas instituições foram insuficientes para inibir ou mitigar a crise de crédito, em face de mudança do modus operantis do mercado bancário tradicional. / Throughout history there has been economic financial crises, which derived in banking crises with strong effects on economic activity, even with regulatory structures that support this market. Recently, the financial market has experienced more of these banking crises with the same historical features of the other, despite a regulatory framework that focuses on a tripod of minimum capital requirement, safe-deposit and lender of last resort. The dissertation describes the crisis of 2007-2009 and its elements and demonstrates how these institutions were insufficient to inhibit or mitigate credit crisis, in the face of changing modus operantis traditional bank market.