Ukraine and Belarus are two post-Soviet states and neighboring countries that, to some extent, demonstrate successful and failed democratization respectively. The purpose of the study is to, based on a theory-consuming approach, investigate which deep structural and proximate actor-oriented explanatory causes may constitute prerequisites and/or obstacles for democratization in these countries. The empirical material draws inspiration from Lachapelle and Hellmeier (2022), from which the explanatory factors are borrowed. The factors are categorized in this study based on relevant theories that Møller and Skaaning (2013) have outlined. Of the deep causes, Belarus' high degree of modernization speaks for the country's good conditions for democratization. Despite Belarus' superiority in the modernization factors, Ukraine has advantages in other deep causes, above all the very strong civil society. In Belarus, there is a lack of proximate causes that can favor democratization, while Ukraine has very favorable conditions – albeit with a high degree of corruption. The study confirms the hypothesis that deep and proximate causes co-vary with each other and with the outcome, but also contradicts, to some extent, an absolute relationship between modernization factors and other deep structural causes as well as the causal direction between proximate and deep causes and suggests an opposite causal relationship. Deep structural causes in combination and interaction with proximate causes determine the development of democracy in these countries. No single theory alone can provide answers to our questions.

Nonviolent campaigns often extend beyond national boundaries, attracting the attention and involvement of international actors. However, our understanding of the effects of external support on the outcomes of nonviolent protests remains limited. Existing research mainly focuses on internal factors of success or concentrates on one or few cases. This paper aims to provide a generalizable theory of the effects of Black Knights – foreign powers supporting an incumbent government against opposition at home – on movement success. Through a large- N, quantitative analysis based on cross-sectional time-series data from 1980 to 2013, I find support for the hypothesis that foreign sponsorship negatively impacts the prospects of nonviolent victory. Additionally, this paper tests the mechanisms theorized against the case of the Belarusian uprising of 2020-2021. By formulating an extensive theory of the effects of Black Knights and adding depth to the measurement of external assistance by taking into account different types of support, my research expands the current knowledge base on the impacts of support to regimes.

The study investigates the relationship between state repression and mass mobilization in resilient autocratic regimes. Using qualitative methods, I examine the question: How can state repression lead to mass participation of society in the nonviolent resistance movement? Developing Brian Martin’s (2012) theory, I hypothesize that framing of state repression by the regime and the opposition influence public perception and, in turn, participation levels. Four contemporary cases are analyzed: The Belarus Election Fraud Resistance 2020-2021, the Belarus Antiwar Resistance 2022, the Russia Navalny Resistance 2021, and the Russia Antiwar Resistance 2022. The findings acquired through the Structured Focused Comparison generally support the theory, demonstrating that well-organized and present opposition can effectively counter state strategies and encourage people with divided and negative perceptions of repression to take risks and join the nonviolent movement. Yet, the negative perception of repression alone is not enough to mobilize the masses in the face of high levels of repression. The magnitude of repression might affect people's motivations to join the nonviolent movement. The study emphasizes the importance of supporting opposition figures and organizations in repressive regimes to strengthen their capacity to mobilize the masses and suggests further research on the deterrent effect of repression.

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After 12 years of isolation, the relations between Brussels and Minsk have been thawing starting in the last year. One of the components of the policy of re-engagement is the new initiative adopted by the EU called Eastern Partnership (EaP). This thesis sought to answer following question: what were the main reasons for the change in the EU policy towards Belarus after 2008? In order to answer the research question I formulated two hypotheses. The first hypothesis argues that while the EU has acted according to the normative power expectations up until 2008, after that date a more pragmatic approach in the foreign policy has been at work. The second hypothesis explains this change by the increasing influence of Eastern European countries in realm of decision-making processes within the EU, which resulted in a reformed EU foreign policy towards Belarus.These hypotheses are tested in a qualitative case study of the launching of the Eastern Partnership initiative, seen as the most important instrument that defines the new policy of EU. I will focus on the process of decision–making in regards to the adoption of the new initiative towards the Eastern European countries, using the rational actor model and the theory of formal leadership. The results of the paper point out that the main reason for changing the EU foreign policy towards Belarus were connected to pragmatic interests in the economic and energy areas, which weakened the EU normative claims. However, EU values are still counted as political conditionality has recently re-entered the agenda. Thus, the current foreign policy is two-fold: based on rational model of acting and normative power. Moreover, the EaP is the result of the strengthened position of Eastern European countries in terms of the power hierarchy among EU members, with Poland, and the Baltic States playing an increasingly larger role.

This study aims to utilize Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan's (1996) theory of democratic consolidation with its five interactive arenas to comprehend how the Belarusian dictatorship consolidated during the 1990s. A crucial aspect to achieve this aim is to ascertain whether the theory can provide clarity on when autocratic consolidation has occurred, or if it rather elucidates the process of autocratization in Belarus. The paper adopts a descriptive qualitative case study methodology with a deductive approach. By flipping the theory's perspective and examining how the regime undermined the arenas to strengthen autocracy, the study reveals the extent to which Belarus fulfills Linz and Stepan's (1996) three criteria of behavioral, attitudinal, and constitutional consolidation to gain insights into the consolidation of the Belarusian dictatorship. The findings reveal that the Lukashenko-led Belarusian regime systematically eroded aspects across all five arenas to consolidate its dictatorship. However, given the unascertainable attitudinal consolidation that transpired in Belarus during the 1990s, the study cannot pinpoint when autocratic consolidation occurred. Instead, it concludes that an autocratization process began under Lukashenko's rule, facilitated by political, social, legal, institutional, and economic maneuvers aimed at consolidating power. Taken together, the results deepen our understanding of what strategies autocratic regimes may employ to strengthen autocracy.

This thesis investigates the nature and impact of Russian influence on Russian-language print and broadcast news in Ukraine and Belarus. TV channels and publications with shareholders or partners in Russia are widely available in both the countries studied; existing literature suggests that such ‘Russian’ media are a source of regional power for the Kremlin. To shed light on how Russian partners and shareholders affect editorial treatment of Russia, the thesis compares content samples from 27 TV news bulletins and newspapers available in Ukraine or Belarus, some of which have Russian partners or shareholders while others do not. It also draws on in-depth interviews with 46 journalists and other media professionals. The thesis then compares the cases of Ukraine and Belarus to explain how political and economic conditions in a ‘target’ state affect the Russian authorities’ scope for communicating messages to mass audiences abroad via pro-Kremlin broadcasters. The findings of the thesis serve as a basis for assessing whether Russian news exports might contribute to Russian foreign policy success in the way envisaged by the literature on soft power. This research reveals complexities which have previously been overlooked in discussions about Russia’s media influence in the post-Soviet region. The news providers in Ukraine and Belarus which have Russian partners or shareholders are diverse and often vulnerable to constraints within their operating environment. Their utility as a source of soft power for the Kremlin is questionable, because the association between media and soft power is premised on public sentiments swaying foreign policy decisions. This premise is problematic, particularly in authoritarian Belarus. Pro-Kremlin Russian news exporters undoubtedly play a role in Moscow’s relations with Minsk and Kiev. However, their significance may lie at least as much in their capacity to provoke as their capacity to ‘softly’ attract and persuade a mass audience.

Cette étude est focalisée sur la Grande guerre du Nord (1700-1721) et le destin des Suédois en Biélorussie et en Russie. Cette guerre est représentée de manière différente dans l'historiographie suédoise, russe et biélorusse. Nous essayons de comparer ces diverses approches dans notre première partie. Nous étudions, par la suite, les différents aspects de la vie des Carolins. Nous voyons ainsi que ces derniers sont présents pendant la guerre en Biélorussie, et que certains d'entre eux y restent. En Russie, en revanche, il s'agit de prisonniers de guerre, capturés essentiellement à Poltava. Ces Carolins constituent un apport important dans le développement de la Russie et nous le montrons à travers les exemples de Saint-Pétersbourg et de la Sibérie. Nous achevons cette thèse en étudiant la question de leur descendance en Russie et en Biélorussie, ainsi que celle de la mémoire, jusqu’à nos jours, de la Grande guerre du Nord. / This study focuses on the Great Northern War (1700-1721) and on the destiny of Swedes in Belarus and Russia. The Swedish, Belarusian and Russian historiography use different ways to depict this war. We compare these various approaches in the first part of this thesis. Then, we study the different aspects of the Carolin's life: in Belarus they were present during the war and some of them stayed there. In Russia the question is about prisoners of war captured after the Battle of Poltava (1709), who brought a big contribution in the development of Russia, such as in Sankt-Petersburg and in Siberia. In Russia some Carolins took root too : we study the question of their descendants in Russia and Belarus, but also the question of the memory of Great Northern War until our days.

Объект исследования - понятие социальная справедливость в условиях недемократического режима (на примере Беларуси), воплощаемое в различных дискурсивных практиках в изменяющемся институциональном контексте в период 2006 – 2010 гг. Концепт социальная справедливость рассматривается как одно из содержательных оснований существующего в стране режима благосостояния. Новизна работы определяется недостаточной разработанностью темы в академических исследованиях как белорусских, так и зарубежных исследователей. Цель работы – исследовать основные (властный и альтернативные) нарративы социальной справедливости в Беларуси. Работа состоит из шести глав. В первой рассматриваются теоретические подходы к понятию социальная справедливость и анализируется понятие постсоциалистическое состояние (Фрэйзер). Во второй представлены использованные в работе методы и материалы исследования. В третьей главе описывается социально-экономический контекст Беларуси в период 2006-2010 гг. В четвертой главе рассмотрена специфика политического поля Беларуси, его разлом на властную и оппозиционную части. В пятой главе в соответствии с выделенными властными субъектами политического поля анализируются их высказывания, составляющие нарратив социальной справедливости, используемый как одно из идейных оснований существующего в стране режима благосостояния. В шестой главе проводится анализ нарративов оппозиционных субъектов: кандидатов в президенты во время двух кампаний (2006, 2010 гг.); третьего сектора, включая... [полный текст, см. далее] / Tyrimo objektas - socialinio teisingumo sąvoka nedemokratinėje valstybėje (Baltarusijos pavyzdys), įgyvendinama įvairiose diskursyvinėse praktikose besikeičiančiame instituciniame kontekste 2006-2010 metais. Sąvoka socialinis teisingumas nagrinėjama kaip vienas iš kertinių šalyje egzistuojančio gerovės režimo pagrindų. Darbo naujumą sąlygoja tai, kad tema nėra išgvildenta nei užsienio, nei baltarusių autorių akademiniuose tyrimuose. Tikslas - ištirti pagrindinius (vyraujantį ir alternatyvų) socialinio teisingumo naratyvus Baltarusijoje, išaiškinti ir dinamikoje palyginti jų turinio dedamąsias, o taip pat išanalizuoti jų įtaką viešosios politikos procesui. Darbas susideda iš 6 dalių. Pirmojoje nagrinėjami teoriniai požiūriai į sąvoką socialinis teisingumas ir analizuojama posocialistinės būklės (Fraser, Furs) samprata, kuri svarbi darbo turinio kontekstui. Antroje dalyje aprašyti darbe naudoti metodai. Trečioji dalis skirta Baltarusijos socialinio ir ekonominio konteksto problematikai. Ketvirtojoje dalyje pateikti Baltarusijos politinio lauko ypatumai, įskaitant jo skilimą į valdžios ir opozicinę dalis. Penktojoje dalyje aptariami valdžios subjektų pasisakymai, formuojantys socialinio teisingumo naratyvą. Šeštojoje dalyje analizuojami opozicinių subjektų naratyvai. Analizė leidžia daryti išvadas, kad reikšminį sąvokos socialinis teisingumas užpildymą Baltarusijoje vykdė valdžia ir jis neturėjo jokių reikšmingų alternatyvų. / The subject of research is the concept of social justice in a non-democratic state (here, Belarus) implemented in different discursive practices and changing institutional context in the period of 2006-2010. The concept of social justice is considered to be one of the conceptual foundations of the welfare regime existing in the country. The novelty of the work is determined by the underdeveloped nature of the topic in the academic research of foreign as well as Belarusian authors. The objective is to research the main (governmental one and alternative ones) narratives of social justice in Belarus. The work is divided into six chapters. The first one examines theoretical approaches to the concept of social justice and analyses the concept of post-socialist condition (Fraser). The second chapter informs of the methods applied in the work. The third one is dedicated to the issues of the socio-economic context of Belarus in the period of 2006-2010. The fourth chapter examines the specifics of the political field of Belarus, its breakup into the governmental and oppositional parts. The fifth one analyses their statements comprising the social-justice narrative used as one of conceptual foundations of the welfare regime existing in the country. The sixth chapter investigates the oppositional narrative. One of the main conclusions of the research is that the concept of social justice in Belarus was determined by the authorities and had no alternatives comparable in importance.

This is a study of whether it is possible for the governmental form of democracy to be ap-plicable in states that have not had democracy as their governmental form earlier in their political history. In this thesis the concept of liberal democracy is the major theory used as well as the concepts of rule of law and civil society. After giving a description of the con-cepts the thesis continues with two chapters that respectively describe and explain the states of Belarus and Cuba. The two states are going to be used in the analysis at the end of this thesis. The analysis includes several conditions to asses if democracy exists. These conditions are derived from the chapters on democracy and rule of law. In the analysis the states of Bela-rus and Cuba are analyzed based on the conditions derived from the chapters on democra-cy and rule of law. The results of the concluding discussion are that the probability for de-mocracy to survive in Cuba is higher than in Belarus because Cuba seems to be transition from an authoritarian form of regime to a form o f democracy. In contrast to Belarus, Cu-ba seems to be willing to open up from seclusion and isolation, as well as listen to its people than what the state of Belarus is willing to do.