This dissertation consists of three research studies on capital flows to South Asian countries, estimation of interest rate pass through in Pakistan and the relative city price convergence in Pakistan. The study has used panel data techniques for empirical estimations. The first study attempts to estimate capital mobility in South Asia using saving investment relationship technique and real interest rate differentials methods as suggested by Frankel (1992). The study finds that real interest rate differentials of South Asian countries are stationary and mean reverting with North American, European and Asian countries. Although the RIDS are stationary showing strong evidence of capital mobility, the savings investment correlation is significant. The correlation of savings and investment decreased after 1990s, the post liberalization period implying increased capital mobility afterwards. The RIDs technique provided stronger evidence of than savings and investment correlation technique. The second study is on the estimation of interest rate pass through in Pakistan using two types of data sets i.e. aggregate bank type and retail bank data. The study finds that both lending, deposit and Treasury Bill (TB) rates are non stationary using aggregate data. The lending and TB rate are found to be cointegrated but deposit rate is not found to be cointegrated. The IRPT of four types of banks is found to be less than 1 but three banks showed the IRPT to be higher than 0.5. The highest IRPT is 0.72 in the case of nationalized banks followed by o.70 by privatized banks. The foreign banks IRPT are 0.60. The lowest IRPT is estimated at 0.3. The error correction model estimates overall IRPT to be 0.6 and the convergence parameter is 0.05. It is low and implies that convergence takes time. The study does not find change in 2005 after January 2005 but the speed of adjustment increased when the lending rate is below equilibrium. The retail data provides evidence that lending and deposit rates both are non stationary and cointegrated with TB rate. I found evidence of complete lending rate pass through with Spatial GLS but Phillips Loretain (1991) model shows incomplete pass through. The deposit rate is found to be incomplete and sticky with both the techniques. The third essay provides evidence on relative city price convergence in 35 Pakistani cities with 2 numeraire cities of Lahore and Karachi. The study estimates the autocorrelation coefficient with 2 techniques i.e. OLS and Spatial GLS. Furthermore city wise half life of price shock is also estimated. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of convergence in Pakistani cities with both the numeraire cities. The overall half life is estimated to be less than 6 months but there is found heterogeneity in the city wise half life estimates. The half life estimates from Spatial GLS are found to be lower than OLS. The convergence has been found even in the case of distant bordering cities. The overall results support that domestic Purchasing Power Parity holds in Pakistan.

xiii, 160 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / Feldstein and Horioka (1980) motivated the international finance literature by claiming a least squares regression of domestic investment rates on domestic savings rates is an informative measure of capital mobility. Their method stirred up controversy when they interpreted a high correlation between savings and investment rates as evidence of capital immobility, creating the famous Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Current research starts with the Feldstein-Horioka result and shifts focus toward measuring short and long-run adjustments to external imbalances. The literature has implemented dynamic time-series and panel estimators to test the relationship. Following recent literature, each chapter in this dissertation jointly focuses on the adjustment process of current account imbalances and the conditions required for capital mobility. The intent of this study is to show through the use of new estimation techniques previous results have been largely misguided. The starting point for this analysis is a thorough review of three key equations used in saving-investment regressions. The three models in question are an ordinary least squares model, error correction model, and an autoregressive distributive lag estimator. Each model is tested for stability, and it is found that a number of countries have an unstable relationship. One argument for the instability results is the presence of structural breaks. Previous literature has found that both variables follow non-stationary processes, but when using more powerful unit root tests and controlling for level shifts, both variables appear stationary. If each variable is stationary then previous methods assuming non-stationarity will produce incorrect inferences. Each series is optimally estimated for structural breaks, and through a mean differencing process the savings-investment coefficient is significantly reduced. Additionally, removing the exogenous breaks and using the lower frequency components allows for modeling the short-run current account adjustment process. Finally, the results are extended to measure the relationship in a panel framework using dynamic panel estimators and threshold effects. After controlling for structural breaks the coefficient decreases and exhibits a downward trend. The remaining correlation can be explained through trade openness and country size measures. / Committee: Nicolas Magud, Chairperson, Economics; Stephen Haynes, Member, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Member, Economics; Regina Baker, Outside Member, Political Science

Cette thèse étudie les effets de mobilité des capitaux sur les politiques publiques dans une situation de sous-emploi. Nous traitons cette question selon trois axes. D'abord, nous introduisons le chômage dans le cadre d'analyse usuel de la concurrence fiscale afin d'étudier l'effet de mobilité du capital sur l'offre de biens publics pour établir que le résultat classique de sous-provision de biens publics est remis en question dès qu'on lève l'hypothèse de plein emploi. Nous menons ensuite une étude de la politique du salaire minimum sous la contrainte de mobilité des capitaux lorsque son rôle est de corriger la répartition des revenus. Nous montrons que la mobilité du capital conduit à la fixation d'un salaire minimum trop faible lorsque les Gouvernements ne sont pas capables de coopération. Enfin, nous analysons dans un troisième axe, l'effet de la mobilité des capitaux sur les politiques publiques en terme d'efficacité lorsque le marché du travail est soumis à des friction. A cet effet, nous utilisons un modèle d'appariement où le stock du capital est exogène. Deux résultats principaux émergent. Le premier résultat montre que le salaire minimum est un moyen d'améliorer l'efficacité du marché du travail en économie fermée; le second est que la mobilité du capital n'affecte pas l'efficacité de la politique du salaire minimum (ainsi conçue) en économie ouverte. / This thesis studies the influence of capital mobility on public policies in an imperfect labor market. We present three contributions to provide some insights on this issue. Firstly, we introduce unemployment into the capital tax competition literature to study the effect of capital mobility on the provision of public goods. Our analysis shows that the usual result of underprovision of public goods is not always preserved in the presence of unemployment. We then investigate the minimum wage policy under the constraint of capital mobility when its role is to adjust the distribution of incomes. We find that, in a non-cooperative context, capital mobility would constrain governments to set lower minimum wages.Finally, we study the influence of capital mobility on the efficiency of labor market policies when governments cannot cooperate. Using a search-matching model with an exogenous stock of capital, we find that implementing a minimum wage can make the decentralized equilibrium coincide with a social optimum in a closed economy. Next we extend the analysis to an n-country economy, the most surprising result being that capital mobility does not affect the efficiency of public policy.

A l'occasion du trentième anniversaire de la transition économique de la Chine, ma thèse traite de plusieurs aspects de l'intégration du marché intérieur chinois au cours de cette époque passionnante. Le chapitre 1 donne d’abord un aperçu des réformes institutionnelles visant à renforcer le contrôle d’Etat à l’égard des affaires régionales et promouvoir l’intégration du marché chinois entreprises depuis 1978. Des faits stylisés récents de la protection locale révélés par une enquête sont ensuite illustrés. Le chapitre 2 présente une revue rapide de la littérature relative à l’intégration économique entre régions chinoises. En général, ces travaux peuvent être regroupés en six volets principaux: similarité de la structure de production; convergence des prix; synchronisation des cycles d’activité; commerce domestique; mobilité inter-régionale des capitaux ; et migration interne. Le chapitre 3 étudie le commerce domestique en Chine. Dans l’esprit de McCallum (1995), nous montrons qu’en contrôlant diverses variables gravitationnelles classiques, les flux commerciaux à l’intérieur d’une province sont 23 à 28 fois plus intenses que les flux inter-provinciaux pendant la période 1992-2003. Ces résultats donnent une indication de la fragmentation du marché des marchandises entre provinces chinoises. Néanmoins, à partir des régressions par sous-période, ces barrières commerciales liées aux frontières provinciales ont connu un déclin manifeste depuis le milieu des années 90. Le chapitre 4 se penche sur la mobilité et l’efficacité allocative des capitaux entre les provinces chinoises. Tout d’abord, nous mettons en évidence que les taux d’épargne et d’investissement provinciaux sont significativement corrélés durant la période 1978-2006. Selon l’argument de Feldstein et Horioka (1980), ces résultats s’interprètent comme une indication de faible mobilité inter-provinciale des capitaux. De surcroît, en détectant la causalité entre l’investissement agrégé et le revenu provinciaux, nous établissons l’efficacité médiocre de l’affectation des capitaux au sein de Chine. Le chapitre 5 porte sur les migrations des mains-d’œuvre entre les régions chinoises. Après une brève présentation des réformes du système de hukou, nous proposons un modèle expliquant les différentiels de salaire avec l’indicateur de frontière provinciale. A partir des statistiques enregistrées par ville et par secteur, nous montrons que la dispersion salariale à l’intérieur d’une province est significativement moins prononcée que la dispersion inter-provinciale durant la période de 2003-2005, toutes choses égales d’ailleurs. Selon la loi du prix unique, telles distorsions liées aux frontières provinciales suggèrent une faible mobilité des mains-d’œuvre entre les provinces chinoises. / On the occasion of the thirtieth anniversary of China’s economic transition, this thesis deals with several facets of the integration of Chinese domestic market over such an exciting era. Chapter 1 discusses first a variety of institutional reforms aimed at reinforcing the central control over regional affairs and improving the integration of domestic market. Several stylised facts about the local protectionism, which come from a recent survey implemented by a respected institution, are also illustrated in the chapter. Chapter 2 offers a brief review of the literature relative to China’s internal integration. Generally speaking, the studies have proceeded along six major lines: similarity of production structure, price convergence, synchronization of business cycles, domestic trade linkages, interregional capital mobility and population migration. Chapter 3 examines the trade pattern within China. In the spirit of McCallum (1995), we find that after controlling for various traditional gravity factors, the trade flows within a Chinese province are 23 to 28 times as dense as those between provinces over the period of 1992-2003. Such findings suggest a highly fragmented product market within China. A trend toward market integration is, however, derived from the evolution analysis. The regressions by sub-period samples show that since the mid-1990s, the magnitudes of border effects have exhibited a dramatic decline. Chapter 4 investigates the capital mobility and capital allocation efficiency among Chinese provinces. We show first that the provincial savings and investment rates are significantly and positively correlated over the period of 1978-2006. According to the Feldstein-Horioka’s argument (1980), this relationship can be interpreted as evidence of low capital mobility. Furthermore, by testing the causality between provincial aggregate investment and income, we fail to provide consistent evidence to support the hypothesis of efficient capital allocation in China. Chapter 5 addresses the labor force migration among Chinese regions. After a short introduction of reforms of hukou system, we derive a simple wage gap equation including education level, market potential and provincial border indicator as explaining variables. In using city and sector-level data, we find that other things being equal, the wage dispersions within provincial borders are significantly less pronounced than those among provinces over the period of 2003-2005. According to the law of one price, such findings imply a weak mobility of labor force among provinces.

Cette thèse s’intéresse aux choix de politique publique des collectivités locales, telles que les municipalités, qui font face à une forte mobilité du capital, des résidents et des travailleurs. La littérature sur la concurrence fiscale a porté une attention très limitée à cette forte mobilité des agents économiques au niveau local. La mobilité des ménages a le plus souvent été ignorée. Aucun modèle unifié ne tient compte de la mobilité du capital, des résidents et des travailleurs. Les modèles existants,en faisant l'hypothèse de résidents ou travailleurs immobiles, décrivent davantage une réalité nationale, voire régionale, mais pas locale.La question de recherche de notre thèse est : comment, au sein d'une agglomération urbaine, des gouvernements locaux concurrents, faisant face à une importante mobilité du capital, des résidents et des travailleurs, choisissent-ils leurs divers instruments de politique publique ? Elle a un intérêt théorique car elle met en lumière nos lacunes dans la connaissance des gouvernements locaux. Elle a également un intérêt empirique car les données fiscales, socio-démographiques, économiques etpolitiques au niveau municipal comptent parmi les plus accessibles.Notre thèse peut fournir de meilleures bases théoriques pour de futurs travaux théoriques et permettre d'ouvrir la voie vers de nouvelles approches dans l'étude des choix des gouvernements locaux. / This thesis is interested in public policy choices of local governments of the low-level jurisdictions, such as municipalities which face a high degree of mobility of capital, residents and workers. The tax competition literature did not pay enough attention to this strong mobility of the agents. Household mobility is most often ignored in the literature and there exists no model including capital, residents' and workers' mobility. By assuming immobility of households (either residents or workers or both), previous work depicts more a regional or national environment than a local one.This thesis addresses the following question: within metropolitan areas, how do competing local governments, facing a high mobility of capital, residents and workers, choose their various policy instruments? Theoretically, our thesis contributes to fill the gap in the literature mentioned above. It also matters from an empirical perspective. Indeed, fiscal, socio-demographic, economic and political data at the municipal level are among the most accessible ones.Our thesis can help to provide better theoretical grounds for future empirical work and pave the way for new approaches in the study of local governments' choices where agents' mobility plays a central role.

台灣近年來逐漸放寬外匯及金融的管制措施，使得台灣與國際間的資本移動愈趨活絡，而國際間利息套利活動的發生，使得各國的外匯與金融市場相互結合在一起，匯率與利率相互影響且其關係愈形密切，當資本可以自由移動時，每個時點兩國間利率的差異應等於預期的即期匯率變動率，此時無拋補利率平價說成立。 在實證方法上，本文擬以Djckey & Fuller(1979, 1981) ADF檢定，及Johansen (1988)最大概似共積估計法，對UIP進行實證分析。由於政府在各期間放寬資本管制的幅度不同，因此本文將實證期間區分成三個階段，分別為資本管制初步開放、逐步放寬與大幅開放三段期間，對台灣地區從事UIP的檢定。實證結果發現： (1)在資本管制初步開放的第一段期間，國內外資產報酬率不具有共整合關係，UIP不成立。 (2)在資本管制逐步放寬的第二段期間，國內外資產報酬率雖具有共整合關係，但是UIP不成立，表示資本移動性雖然較第一段期間提高，但仍有其限制性。 (3)在資本管制大幅開放的第三段期間，國內外資產報酬率不僅具有共整合關係，且UIP成立，表示在資本移動性相對大的階段，由本文實證檢定結果發現，UIP確實是成立的。 / In order to assess the degree of capital mobility of Taiwan in the sense of uncovered interest parity, this paper attempts to estimate the relationship between the return rate of domestic asset and the return rate of foreign asset with cointegration. Main conclusions are: In the first period(1985:9-1989:6), the return rate of domestic asset and foreign asset are not cointegrated by themselves. In the second period(1989:7-1993:12),a unique long- run relationship between these two variables can't be rejected. But the hypothesis of uncovered interest parity is rejected. These empirical evidences imply that capital is not freely mobile in the first and second period. However, in the third period(1994:l- 1998:3),with fewer financial regulations, a unique long-run relationship between these two variables can't be rejected. In addition, the coefficient of the return rate of foreign asset is insignificantly different from 1. It means that capital can moves most free in recent years.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-06-23T19:43:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 juliagoesdasilva.pdf: 980905 bytes, checksum: df0e8068aa03e5a954830f862e4dc02a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-13T15:41:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 juliagoesdasilva.pdf: 980905 bytes, checksum: df0e8068aa03e5a954830f862e4dc02a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-13T15:41:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 juliagoesdasilva.pdf: 980905 bytes, checksum: df0e8068aa03e5a954830f862e4dc02a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-19 / A discussão teórica em torno da mobilidade do capital pode ser divida em dois pontos de referência: um conduzido pela mensuração da relação entre poupança e investimento domésticos, conforme Feldstein e Horioka (1980); o outro pela análise das variâncias da conta corrente teórica e observada, como propõe Ghosh (1995). Ambos trouxeram importantes contribuições para testar suposições sobre o fluxo de capital entre nações, entretanto, o presente trabalho segue a linha de Ghosh (1995), se preocupando com a análise da conta corrente sob as hipóteses de equilíbrio intertemporal, limitando-se ao caso brasileiro no período de 1970 a 2007. Com o fim de encontrar evidências sobre o grau de mobilidade internacional do capital para o país, e sobre o comportamento suavizador da conta corrente, seguiu-se em boa medida a metodologia utilizada em Huang (2010), que levanta a hipótese da importância de incluir as variáveis taxa real de juros mundial e termos de troca no modelo básico de Ghosh (1995). Utilizando o método de Variável Instrumental, não foi possível estabelecer o grau de mobilidade de capital para o Brasil entre 1970-2007, pois o parâmetro que capta a relação entre produto líquido e conta corrente mostrou-se estatisticamente não diferente de zero. Todavia, a inclusão dos termos de troca e da taxa de juros ao modelo, resultou em melhor ajustamento das estimativas, confirmando a importância dessas para explicar os movimentos da conta corrente. Os resultados obtidos pelo VAR mostraram que a série gerada para a conta corrente teórica não se ajusta à observada. Entretanto, os resultados reafirmam a importância de incluir aquelas variáveis, e conduzem à constatação de excesso de mobilidade do capital entre 1970-2007. Mas, quando se observa a série teórica em subperíodos, de 1970-1989, de 1990-2007 e de 1994-2007, verifica-se que, para o modelo expandido (que inclui as variáveis propostas),o excesso de mobilidade não ocorre após 1994. / The theoretical debate on capital mobility can be divided into two strands in the literature: one based on measuring the saving-investment correlation following Feldstein and Horioka (1980) seminal paper; the other one comparing the variance of the theoretical current account derived from an intertemporal equilibrium model with its actual counterpart, as proposed by Ghosh (1995). In the present work it is analyzed the Brazilian case from 1970 to 2007 following the line of Ghosh (1995) who focuses on the analysis of the current account under the hypothesis of intertemporal equilibrium. In order to find evidence of the degree of international capital mobility, and of the behavior of smoothing current account, it is followed largely the model developed in Huang (2010) who investigated the importance of including world real interest rate and terms of trade in the basic model of Ghosh (1995). Using the method of Instrumental Variable as proposed in Huang (2010) the degree of capital mobility for Brazil between 1970 and 2007 could not be correctly evaluated because the key parameter that measures the degree of capital mobility was not statistically different from zero in all models estimated. However, it is found that the inclusion of terms of trade and interest rate in the estimated models improve the model fit to the actual current account, confirming the importance of these variables to explain its movements. Comparing the variances it is found that the generated theoretical current account does not match the volatility of the observed one leading to the finding of “excess mobility” as defined in Ghosh (1995) in the whole sample. Nevertheless, when we divide the theoretical series in three periods, namely, 1970-1989, 1990-2007 and 1994-2007, a different result emerges for the complete model (comprising all the variables proposed) with the “excess mobility” no longer holding after 1994.

本文以 Barnett (1980) 一文為基礎，採用第三地市場以納入廠商型態為多國籍企業 (multinational enterprise) 的模型。本文旨在分析當兩國政府面對獨占廠商的生產不效率及製造過程中汙染排放引發的生產外部性時，如何制定最適汙染稅稅率。並比較經濟開放後資本要素可自由於兩國間移動，最適汙染稅稅率會如何變化。 本研究發現政府課稅將受三種效果影響：消費者剩餘效果 (consumer surplus effect)、利潤移轉效果 (profit-shifting effect)、汙染控制效果 (pollution control effect)。不論在封閉經濟體系或開放經濟體系下，當消費者剩餘效果大於利潤移轉效果時，政府會將最適汙染稅率制定低於皮古稅 (Pigouvian tax)，以補貼獨占廠商增加產量以提高社會福利；若利潤移轉效果大於消費者剩餘效果時，最適汙染稅稅率將高於皮古稅，以藉由汙染稅獲取更多的企業利潤。 當經濟開放後資本可於兩國間自由移動，除原先稅率對產量的直接效果(direct effect) 外，稅率亦會透過資本間接影響產量，為間接效果 (indirect effect)。間接效果將使產量對於稅率的變動較不敏感，因此為吸引具流動性的資本要素進入當地投資，政府會將汙染稅稅率調高以獲取更多企業利潤。 / Based on the setting of Barnett (1980), the thesis develops a model to analyze the optimal pollution tax on multinational enterprises with negative externalities. Governments have only one policy variable: the pollution tax. Each government levies the pollution tax on the output of multinational enterprises, and the tax revenues are returned to the residents in a lump sum manner. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the optimal taxation on the multinational enterprise with externalities and mobile capital flow. The thesis obtains several results: First, no matter in the case of closed economy or open economy, the second-best optimal pollution tax may be less or greater than the marginal pollution damage. It may be lower because the consumer surplus effect dominates the profit-shifting effect, so the government chooses a lower tax rate to stimulate production and to increase social welfare. Second, when the capital can freely move between countries, the governments will levy a tax rate higher than that of a closed economy. Doing so can attract the flow of capital so that government can get more profit.

無 / This study investigates the monetary effects under the floating exchange rates and imperfect capital mobility by extending the model of Bernanke and Blinder (1988) into a small open economy. It is shown that with credit channel of monetary transmission explicitly considered, the effect of monetary policy on output may be augmented or lessen in our model depending on whether the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates. In addition, the exchange rate puzzle found in the empirical studies can be explained in our theoretical model. The dynamic adjustment patterns of the output and the exchange rate after an increase in money supply are further examined. Under the case of relative high capital mobility, when the real output gradually adjusts toward a higher level, the exchange rate may overshoot, undershoot, or even counter-shoot during the dynamic adjustment process. This provides another one explanation for the volatility of exchange rates under floating rates. Therefore, as financial markets become more internationalized, the conduct of monetary policy turns more complicated in an open economy.

In the literature, a considerable theoretical and empirical works have investigated the credit channel of monetary transmission mechanism. This dissertation extends the Bernanke and Blinder (1988) model to an open-economy setting with flexible exchange rate and perfect capital mobility. By means of the framework, we examine the exchange rate dynamics and the adjustment of real output. It turns out that, with a significant credit channel effect, the exchange rate puzzle may occur in the short run and in long run. Moreover, in contrast to Dornbusch (1976), this dissertation shows that, depending upon the strength of the credit channel effect, overshooting, undershooting and counter-shooting impact effect may occur when international capital mobility is perfect. / In the literature, a considerable theoretical and empirical works have investigated the credit channel of monetary transmission mechanism. This dissertation extends the Bernanke and Blinder (1988) model to an open-economy setting with flexible exchange rate and perfect capital mobility. By means of the framework, we examine the exchange rate dynamics and the adjustment of real output. It turns out that, with a significant credit channel effect, the exchange rate puzzle may occur in the short run and in long run. Moreover, in contrast to Dornbusch (1976), this dissertation shows that, depending upon the strength of the credit channel effect, overshooting, undershooting and counter-shooting impact effect may occur when international capital mobility is perfect.