My thesis titled The Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of Armenia starts with characteristics of Armenia, where I focus on economic attributes of the country, international conflicts and their effects on Armenia, population development, poverty and corruption. The second part is focused on economic development of Armenia, the country's employment rate, particular items of the balance of payments and international trade. Furthermore, this part also consists of information related to the development of Armenian currency and the country's foreign debt. The third, significant part of my thesis deals with the Central Bank of Armenia and Armenia's financial system, concentrating mainly on history and the present of the subject central bank. Later in this part, I inquire into Armenia's monetary policy, where I focus on its applied transmission mechanisms and the CBA's instruments.The final part of this thesis is about what effects the CBA has on Armenia's economic development. I look into effects of monetary policy on price level development and meeting the inflation objectives. The conclusion part summarizes and gathers all pieces of information I have obtained by studying numerous literature resources and conducting personal interviews with several representatives of the Armenian banking system.This part also summarizes benefits of the CBA and its effects on economic development of Armenia, credibility evaluation and effectiveness in the objectives.

This paper is concerned with theoretical assumptions and consequences of a free banking system. The main theme is critical inquire of Hayek`s notion of creating the system of free banks independent of central bank, which issue differentiated currencies. The main purpose of this system is to force the government institution to provide a currency more stable than it does now. However there are some crucial objections which target the possibility of operating such system in practice. The main theme is further widen by the question about fractional and full reserve banking. Based on the comparison of the different reserve system, there is a notion of a system combining both, but keeping them strictly separated. The foundation of the paper is analysis of money definition from the austrian school point of view. These arguments are applied to the inflation and deflation. The object of research are conditions of existence and consequences of both effects. The inflation analysis is used to describe current system of central institution and the net of commercial banks.

The thesis analyses the change of monetary policy of the European central bank during financial and sovereign debt crisis. Main focus of the thesis is given on the analysis of non-standard measures of monetary policy of the ECB. This thesis explains in detail how the ECB has responded to the various phases of the financial and debt crisis, starting with the period of financial turmoil, continuing with the intensification of the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. Finally, the thesis compares these phases and assesses the impact of these non-standard measures.

La crise financière mondiale qui a débuté en 2008, et la crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro qui l'a suivie, ont successivement forcé les macroéconomistes à repenser leur cadre conceptuel. Cette thèse est une modeste contribution aux efforts colossaux déployés par les macroéconomistes à travers le monde pour faire face à ce défi: renforcer la compréhension de l'utilisation optimale des outils de politique économique non conventionnels. A cette fin, elle est construite en deux parties. Chaque partie vise à explorer au plan théorique un "contexte macroéconomique-type" au sein duquel des outils de politique économique non conventionnels ont été employés ces dernières années. La première partie, intitulée "Politique Non Conventionelle Optimale en Economie Ouverte", analyse l'utilisation optimale d'instruments de politique économique non conventionels par une banque centrale en économie ouverte. En présence de frictions financières qui modifient la manière dont la politique monétaire affecte l'économie, ou en présence de chocs exogènes qui mettent en défaut la "divine coïncidence", cette partie décrit comment un banquier central devrait combiner un instrument de politique monétaire non conventionnelle et la politique monétaire conventionnelle à des fins de stabilisation macroéconomique. La seconde partie, "Politique Budgétaire Optimale en Union Monétaire", adopte le point de vue du gouvernement d'un pays situé en union monétaire (typiquement la zone euro). Un tel pays ne disposant d'une politique monétaire autonome (au plan national), cette partie étudie la possibilité pour un tel pays d'utiliser la politique budgétaire comme un outil de stabilisation, et décrit l'utilisation optimale des dévaluations fiscales en réponse à des chocs exogènes idiosyncratiques. / The 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent euro area sovereign debt crisis successively forced macroeconomists to reassess this conceptual framework. This thesis is a modest contribution to the huge efforts undertaken by macroeconomists following the crisis to meet this challenge, i.e. to develop some insights about the optimal use of unconventional policy tools. To do so, this thesis is twofold. Each part intends to explore from a theoretical perspective a fundamental macroeconomic situation that called for the use of unconventional policy instruments in the recent years. The first part, ”Optimal Unconventional Policy in An Open Economy” analyzes the optimal use of unconventional policy instruments by the central bank in an open economy framework. Assuming that the presence of financial frictions changes the way monetary policy affects the economy, or that the occurence of exogenous shocks breaks the ”divine coincidence”, this part describes how a central bank should combine an unconventional policy instrument and conventional monetary policy to favor macroeconomic stabilization. The second part, ”Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union”, takes the standpoint of the governement of a country located in a currency union (typically the euro area). Such a country being deprived of monetary policy autonomy, this part considers the opportunity of using fiscal policy as a stabilization tool, and describes the optimal use of fiscal devaluations following idiosyncratic exogenous shocks.

[pt] Este trabalho tem como objetivo investigar o efeito das intervenções do Banco Central na volatilidade da taxa de câmbio no Brasil no período de 2000 a 2003 e entender se a autoridade monetária intervém com o intuito de suavizar a volatilidade do câmbio. Para abordarmos o primeiro ponto, utilizamos o modelo EGARCH de Nelson (1991) que nos permitiu estimar o impacto das intervenções na volatilidade da taxa de câmbio levando em conta a possibilidade de que choques positivos e negativos no retorno do câmbio tenham efeitos distintos na volatilidade. Como principal resultado, encontrou-se que as intervenções do Banco Central estariam adicionando volatilidade na taxa de câmbio. Entretanto, devido à possibilidade de simultaneidade, utilizou-se a metodologia desenvolvida por Vella (1993) que nos permite estimar o efeito das intervenções na volatilidade de forma consistente e testar a endogeneidade das intervenções. Concluímos que as estimativas anteriores eram inconsistentes uma vez que encontramos que as intervenções contribuíram para uma redução de volatilidade e o teste de endogeneidade confirmou que as intervenções são endógenas ao modelo. Podemos também depreender deste resultado que possivelmente o Banco Central tem suavizado movimentos na taxa de câmbio. / [en] This work investigates the effect of Central Bank interventions on the exchange rate volatility from 2000 to 2003 and tries to understand whether or not the monetary authority smoothes exchange rate volatility. Referring to the first issue, we estimated an EGARCH model developed by Nelson (1991) that allows us to estimate the effect of interventions on the volatility regarding the possibility that positive and negative shocks have different impacts on volatility. The results found indicate that Central Bank interventions are adding volatility to the exchange rate. However, because of the possibility of simultaneity, we implemented the methodology developed by Vella (1993) that allows us to test consistently the effect of interventions on the volatility and test the endogeneity of interventions. We conclude that previous estimates were inconsistent as new results reveal that interventions contribute to reduce volatility and the endogeneity test confirms that interventions are an endogenous variable of the model. This result also indicates that possibly Central Bank smoothes exchange rate movements.

Diplomová práce se zaměřuje na kritickou analýzu rozšíření Evropské měnové unie - Eurozóny, s důrazem na to, které ekonomiky jsou vhodní potenciální kandidáti a podmínky jejich připojení, s pro makroekonomický užitek měnové unie. Práce bere na zřetel rozlišení pohledu na Eurozónu z úrovně ekonomiky členského státu Eurozóny a EU jako celku, a také z makroekonomického pohledu globální ekonomiky. Práce má záměr sloužit jako prostředek pro ekonomické rozhodování na úrovni Evropské Unie zaměří se na racionální zvážení možností v rámci kompetencí a návrhy pro směrování do budoucna.

Even though major advances in economic theory and modelling have in some cases furthered our understanding of how the economy works, the system as a whole has become more complex. If policymakers had perfect knowledge about the actual state of the economy, the various transmission mechanisms as well as the true underlying model, monetary intervention would be greatly simplified. In reality, however, the monetary authorities have to contend with considerable uncertainty in relation to the above-mentioned factors. This said, uncertainty has mostly been neglected in both the theoretical and empirical literature focusing on monetary policy analysis. Nonetheless, findings from a review of theoretical literature that does exist on this topic suggest that optimal central banks act more conservatively when faced with uncertainty. Similarly, empirical findings from the literature also favour conservatism. However, there is some evidence to suggest that this is not always the case. These results suggest that central banks do not always act optimally when faced with uncertainty. The limited number of industrial country cases examined prevents any generalised view from emerging. If anything, the literature findings suggest that central bank behaviour differs across countries. This thesis aims to contribute to the empirical literature by studying the effects of uncertainty on monetary policy in the developing country case of South Africa. In simplest terms, the thesis seeks to establish whether or not the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) responded optimally to uncertainty as suggested by theoretical models thereof. To this end, the thesis employs a theoretical model which resembles a structural rule-based approach. The optimal interest rate rule was derived given a set of structural equations relating to demand, the Phillips curve and the real exchange rate. To incorporate uncertainty, it is assumed that the coefficients are dependent on the variances of the exogenous variables, namely inflation, the output gap and the exchange rate. The uncertainty adjusted model allows us to investigate whether monetary policy is more aggressive or passive when uncertainty about the relevant exogenous variable increases. Inflation, output gap and exchange rate uncertainty estimates were derived through GARCH-model specifications related to the structural equations as defined in the theoretical model. The investigation considered both indirect and direct uncertainty effects with a sample period stretching from 1990 to 2011. The findings reported in this thesis provide strong evidence in support of the notion that uncertainty plays a significant role within the South African monetary policy landscape and contributes towards explaining the SARB’s actions. Furthermore, the results suggest that the SARB did in fact act optimally in responding more conservatively to target variable fluctuations on average. Also, the findings could potentially strengthen the case for inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime, as the results indicate a marked decline in the effects of uncertainty under inflation targeting than before. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

Inspired by the digital revolution to the financial industry, the discussion around central bank digital currency also attract attention from academics and central banks. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is also researching on China’s CBDC: digital currency electronic payment (DCEP) and announced that DCEP would be issued as soon as possible.  However, the PBOC does not systematically disclose the information of DCEP. The characteristics and mechanism design are still obscured and need to be explored deeply. This thesis analysed the classification and mechanism design choices of DCEP from the perspective of two different demands: general demand and central bank demand. Based on pragmatism philosophy, we use a mixed-methods approach that is a combination of qualitative and quantitative research. Through the interview and surveys, we identified the demands from the PBOC and the general public in China and the characteristics of DCEP from official claims. Then generate the design choices via the money flower and the pyramid of CBDC models and compare the result with the demand. The analysis shows that the DCEP belongs to type B general-purpose CB digital tokens, and it would adopt a complex multi-layer hybrid architecture design, with the support from both DLT and conventional way. In conclusion, the current mechanism design choices can meet the demands from each side to a certain extent and reached a delicate balance under the trade-off between privacy and security issues. This thesis provides an insightful view on the classification and design choices of DCEP, fulfils the lack of systematic research relating to the demand and design choices of DCEP, and reveals the public’s insufficient knowledge in DCEP.

Desde su aparición en el siglo XVII, los bancos centrales han pasado de tener una función importante a ser un eje clave en el desarrollo económico y la estabilidad financiera de los países donde operan y del sistema mundial. Este panorama permite comprender la atención que, en los últimos años, se ha dado en la literatura especializada. Sin embargo, se reconoce que las posiciones son diversas y variables de acuerdo a diferentes condiciones. Por esta razón, en la presente investigación, se busca determinar cuál es el impacto de esta institución en los mercados financieros en los que operan. Para ello, en las primeras secciones se estudian los bancos centrales desde una perspectiva conceptual con categorías vinculadas intrínsecamente, así como el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. En los siguientes, los objetivos que cumplen estas instituciones en la política monetaria, su independencia como valor central, la forma con la toma decisiones y su relación con el Gobierno central, y cómo operan en tiempos de crisis financieras. En los últimos, se revisa la función de una comunicación y transparencia institucional para finalizar su rol en momentos de cambio climático y pandemia. La principal conclusión a la que se llega es que, si bien existe un consenso claro en cuanto a que los bancos centrales cumplen una función trascendental para los mercados financieros locales, regionales y mundial, su impacto varía ampliamente en función a la forma en la que estos operan y las condiciones que manejan. / Since their appearance in the 17th century, central banks have gone from having an important role to being a key axis in the economic development and financial stability of the countries where they operate and of the world system. This panorama allows to understand the attention given to them in recent years in the specialized literature. However, it is recognized that the positions are diverse and variable according to different conditions. For this reason, this research seeks to determine the impact of this institution on the financial markets in which they operate. To this end, the first sections study central banks from a conceptual perspective with intrinsically linked categories, as well as the Central Reserve Bank of Peru. In the following sections, the objectives of these institutions in monetary policy, their independence as a central value, the way in which they make decisions and their relationship with the central government, and how they operate in times of financial crisis. In the last ones, the function of institutional communication and transparency is reviewed to finalize their role in times of climate change and pandemics. The main conclusion is that while there is a clear consensus that central banks play a critical role in local, regional and global financial markets, their impact varies widely depending on how they operate and the conditions they manage. / Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional

This study explores the possibility that cheep credit, provided to firms when profit opportunities on real investments are low, and when opportunities of financial investments are present, will loose some of it’s stimulus effect due to a crowding out effect of financial investments on real investments. Analyzing the changes in debt, and it’s channels of use during the recession of the covid19 pandemic, between firms with a history of stock buybacks, and firms without such a history, the study finds a significantly higher increase in debt for firms with a history of doing stock buybacks. The study concludes that this effect is due to firms finding financial uses of more cheap credit, which does crowd out real investments.