A regulação financeira, especialmente a regulação bancária, tem um papel central na organização da vida social. As modernas técnicas regulatórias, altamente sofisticadas, são o resultado de décadas de evolução. Elas exigem técnicos especializados, orçamentos específicos e uma estrutura institucional complexa. Mais que isso: para promover as regulações sistêmica e prudencial, os reguladores necessitam de amplos poderes normativos uma capacidade normativa de conjuntura. A atribuição de tais competências a órgãos que não contam com a legitimidade das urnas é considerada por alguns autores uma espécie de anomalia no direito constitucional. Para outros, ao contrário, ela é um elemento necessário do desenho institucional do Estado Regulador contemporâneo. É nesse ponto que se cruzam os debates sobre o processo de burocratização da vida social e sobre o desenvolvimento dos cânones do direito ocidental, especialmente a doutrina da separação dos poderes. A juridificação das esferas sociais suscita o tema do déficit democrático da formulação de políticas pela burocracia. A presente tese desenvolve, a partir do modelo de democracia deliberativa de Jürgen Habermas, a premissa normativa segundo a qual o controle judicial é necessário para garantir a legitimidade democrática do processo administrativo normativo. Como o cidadão comum não dispõe nem do conhecimento técnico nem dos meios materiais necessários para acompanhar o processo de tomada de decisões, o controle judicial deveria funcionar como um mecanismo de controle democrático da regulação financeira. A tese analisa esse déficit democrático a partir da jurisprudência constitucional do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) relativa à separação dos poderes e às disputas doutrinárias sobre delegação legislativa e poder regulamentar. Os estudos de caso, focados no sistema financeiro, buscam investigar se a atuação do STF tem garantido de forma adequada um equilíbrio entre a racionalidade tecnocrática e as exigências normativas de uma democracia deliberativa. / Financial regulation, specially banking regulation, plays a central role in the organization of social life. The current regulatory techniques, highly sophisticated, are the result of decades of evolution. They require well-trained public officials, specific budgets and a complex institutional framework. Moreover, in order to carry on the systemic and prudential regulations, regulators need broad rule-making powers. The assignment of such authority to non-majoritarian bodies is considered by some authors as a sort of anomaly in Constitutional Law. To others, it is seen as a necessary element of the institutional design of the contemporary Regulatory State. This is the stage where the debate about the process of bureaucratization of social life meets the intellectual concern about the current developments of western public law, namely the issue of the separation of powers. The juridification of the social spheres brings the issue of the democratic deficit of bureaucratic policymaking. Since ordinary citizens lack the expertise as well as the material and financial resources which are necessary to monitor the decision-making process, this dissertation develops the normative assumption that judicial review is necessary to ensure the democratic legitimacy of the administrative process. The dissertation analyses that democratic deficit from the viewpoint of the constitutional jurisprudence of the Brazilian Supreme Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal STF) regarding separation of powers, the rule-making authority of Brazilian non-majoritarian bodies and the doctrinal disputes about legislative delegation. The case studies show that the judicial review by STF has in practice rejected the Brazilian public law non-delegation doctrine, but has done it in a way that does not strike a balance between technocratic rationality and the normative claims of deliberative democracy.

A regulação financeira, especialmente a regulação bancária, tem um papel central na organização da vida social. As modernas técnicas regulatórias, altamente sofisticadas, são o resultado de décadas de evolução. Elas exigem técnicos especializados, orçamentos específicos e uma estrutura institucional complexa. Mais que isso: para promover as regulações sistêmica e prudencial, os reguladores necessitam de amplos poderes normativos uma capacidade normativa de conjuntura. A atribuição de tais competências a órgãos que não contam com a legitimidade das urnas é considerada por alguns autores uma espécie de anomalia no direito constitucional. Para outros, ao contrário, ela é um elemento necessário do desenho institucional do Estado Regulador contemporâneo. É nesse ponto que se cruzam os debates sobre o processo de burocratização da vida social e sobre o desenvolvimento dos cânones do direito ocidental, especialmente a doutrina da separação dos poderes. A juridificação das esferas sociais suscita o tema do déficit democrático da formulação de políticas pela burocracia. A presente tese desenvolve, a partir do modelo de democracia deliberativa de Jürgen Habermas, a premissa normativa segundo a qual o controle judicial é necessário para garantir a legitimidade democrática do processo administrativo normativo. Como o cidadão comum não dispõe nem do conhecimento técnico nem dos meios materiais necessários para acompanhar o processo de tomada de decisões, o controle judicial deveria funcionar como um mecanismo de controle democrático da regulação financeira. A tese analisa esse déficit democrático a partir da jurisprudência constitucional do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) relativa à separação dos poderes e às disputas doutrinárias sobre delegação legislativa e poder regulamentar. Os estudos de caso, focados no sistema financeiro, buscam investigar se a atuação do STF tem garantido de forma adequada um equilíbrio entre a racionalidade tecnocrática e as exigências normativas de uma democracia deliberativa. / Financial regulation, specially banking regulation, plays a central role in the organization of social life. The current regulatory techniques, highly sophisticated, are the result of decades of evolution. They require well-trained public officials, specific budgets and a complex institutional framework. Moreover, in order to carry on the systemic and prudential regulations, regulators need broad rule-making powers. The assignment of such authority to non-majoritarian bodies is considered by some authors as a sort of anomaly in Constitutional Law. To others, it is seen as a necessary element of the institutional design of the contemporary Regulatory State. This is the stage where the debate about the process of bureaucratization of social life meets the intellectual concern about the current developments of western public law, namely the issue of the separation of powers. The juridification of the social spheres brings the issue of the democratic deficit of bureaucratic policymaking. Since ordinary citizens lack the expertise as well as the material and financial resources which are necessary to monitor the decision-making process, this dissertation develops the normative assumption that judicial review is necessary to ensure the democratic legitimacy of the administrative process. The dissertation analyses that democratic deficit from the viewpoint of the constitutional jurisprudence of the Brazilian Supreme Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal STF) regarding separation of powers, the rule-making authority of Brazilian non-majoritarian bodies and the doctrinal disputes about legislative delegation. The case studies show that the judicial review by STF has in practice rejected the Brazilian public law non-delegation doctrine, but has done it in a way that does not strike a balance between technocratic rationality and the normative claims of deliberative democracy.

L’objectif de ces travaux est d’analyser les canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans le contexte d’une union monétaire. Nous avons d'abord procédé à l'analyse de la gouvernance, de l'indépendance et de la transparence du cadre institutionnel de mise en œuvre de la politique mon monétaire aire. En utilisant le modèle d'analyse de Grilli et al. (1991), il ressort que la BCEAO dispose d'un degré d'indépendance élevé, conforme aux banques centrales modernes. Ensuite, l’estimation de modèles VAR structurels sur données trimestrielles, dans lesquels les taux directeurs sont considérés comme exogènes et les autres variables faiblement exogènes, montre l’hétérogénéité・ des effets de la politique monétaire dans les pays membres de l’union et l’existence de deux principaux canaux de transmission à savoir le canal du taux interbancaire et le canal du crédit. Nos résultats confirment des effets des taux d’intérêt directeurs de faible ampleur mais significatifs sur l’inflation et l’investissement. L’effet direct des taux directeurs sur le PIB est faible et non significatif. Enfin, l’étude de la fonction de réaction de la BCEAO permet d’aborder les questions relatives à l’arbitrage entre l’inflation et la production dans la conduite de la politique monétaire. L’estimation d’une règle de Taylor modifiée, intégrant un objectif intermédiaire explicite d'avoirs extérieurs, aboutit à un arbitrage en faveur de l’activité depuis la mise en œuvre de la réforme de la politique monétaire de 1989. / The objective of this work is to analyze the transmission channels of monetary policy in the context of a monetary union. We first analyzed governance, independence and transparency of the institutional framework for implementation of monetary policy. Using the model of Grilli et al. (1991), it appears that the BCEAO has a high degree of independence to modern central banks. Then, the estimated structural VAR models on quarterly data, in which interest rates are considered exogenous and other weakly exogenous variables, shows the heterogeneity of the effects of monetary policy in the member countries of the Union and existence of two main transmission channels namely the interbank rate channel and the credit channel. Our results confirm the effects of interest rate small-scale but significant on inflation and investment. The direct effect of interest rates on GDP is small and not significant. Finally, the study of the BCEAO reaction function to address issues related to arbitration between inflation and output in the conduct of monetary policy. The estimate of a modified Taylor rule, incorporating an explicit intermediate target of foreign assets, resulting in a trade for activity since the implementation of the reform of monetary policy in 1989.

本文是以Candel-Sánchez and Campoy-Miñarro (2004)的績效契約制訂為基礎 ，開放單獨由政府制訂契約的假設，賦予央行與政府部門雙方皆具有談判力，並利用Nash談判解(Nash bargaining solution)做出最適績效契約。此外，我們也討論政府央行的談判力、對薪資的偏好和央行官員保守度在不同工資調整指數下與最適績效契約之間的關係，並分析能影響產出及通貨膨脹穩定性的因素。 經本文的研究分析，我們可以發現:政府的談判力愈大績效誘因基數愈大，此時能有效抑制通膨產生，但是同時也會使產出下降。當工資調整指數趨於零時，政府的談判力將不會對產出造成影響只會降低通貨膨脹率。 央行官員若是愈保守愈重視通貨膨脹帶來的效用損失，會使績效誘因基數下降。其中，本文的分析與Rogoff (1985)的有相同的結果，增加央行官員的保守性雖有利抑制通膨且增加通膨穩定性，另一方面卻打擊產出水準同時會使產出易受外來衝擊的影響。當工資調整指數愈低時，央行官員的保守性也會對績效誘因基數的變動愈大。 央行官員愈關心薪資收入多寡，績效誘因基數就愈低，但是對通貨膨脹與產出的影響則須視談判央行對薪資的偏好程度與最適誘因基數大小而定。政府愈在意營運成本，談判出的最適績效誘因基數會愈低，而且會同時造成通貨膨脹率與產出的上升。 在討論經濟穩定性時，我們發現僅有央行官員保守程度、工資調整指數與隨機干擾衝擊的變異數會對產出及通貨膨脹率的穩定性造成影響;但納入談判協商得到的績效誘因基數，並不會造成經濟體系的波動。我們也發現本文與Rogoff (1985)的結論相同之處在於央行官員極度保守時會完全消除通貨膨脹率，但是會使產出完全反映隨機干擾項的衝擊。

This thesis analyzes the effect of the Czech National Bank's (CNB) communica- tion on the interest rate volatility (PRJBOR reference rate). Starting with the literature survey about the central bank communication in the world, I focus on the literature that concerns the CNB. To model the CNB's communication, I use the GARCH(l,1), EGARCH(l,1) and TARCH(l,1) models. I have created a unique data set containing the dummy variables for the CNB communication. The results are as follows: (a) the CNB's communication tends to decrease the volatility, (b) timing of the communication has a key role as the comments closer to the meeting have bigger calming effect, and that (c) there is no clear effect concerning the comments of the Bank Board members in the media. JEL Classification Keywords E43, E44, E52, E58 Czech National Bank, monetary policy signaling, central bank communication, the term structure of interest rates, GARCH analysis Author's email karasp@email.cz Supervisors's email roman. horvath@gmail.com

The aim of this diploma thesis is to evaluate what influence has the ECB decision-making on the Eurozone economy and above all to consider the ECB's involvement in solving of the recent financial and persisting European debt crisis. First two chapters represent rather a theoretical part of the thesis, in which the author is dealing generally with the importance and the role of the ECB in the course of the European integration, including its origin, its management structure and internal decision-making process. The second chapter focuses in detail on the ECB's tasks and competencies with emphasise mainly on the monetary policy and on the clarification how a so called transmission mechanism enables the measures adopted within the monetary policy to transform into the real economy. There is also more elaborated the primary task of ECB which is to maintain the price stability. The second part of this thesis is more analytical and reflects current trends and development in the EU banking sector with an accent on the ECB's attitudes. The recent financial crisis is discussed in the third chapter together with the new regulatory rules. Financial crisis tend to have some joint characteristics like e.g. the source of their origin that often lies in an excessive and rapid loan expansion, in leverage increase,...

Cette thèse contribue au débat sur les politiques de ciblage d’inflation et de transparence des banques centrales en présentant notamment trois essais théoriques et empiriques sur le sujet. Dans le premier essai, nous étudions théoriquement les conditions sous lesquelles il serait optimal pour une banque centrale d’adopter explicitement un régime de ciblage d’inflation. Nous proposons un nouveau cadre théorique qui combine les deux principales raisons avancées dans la littérature pour expliquer les effets réels à court terme de la politique monétaire et qui sont d’une part, la présence d’informations hétérogènes entre les agents économiques (Phelps, 1970 ; Lucas, 1972), et d’autre part, la rigidité des salaires ou des prix (Taylor, 1980 ; Calvo, 1983). Nous analysons ensuite notre problématique dans ce nouveau cadre en considérant l’interaction entre le degré de rigidité des prix, et le degré de complémentarités stratégiques dans la fixation de prix des firmes. Nos résultats montrent que l’adoption d’un régime de ciblage d’inflation dépend fortement de l’importance relative des paramètres du modèle. En particulier, nous montrons que le ciblage d’inflation devrait être toujours adopté lorsque les complémentarités stratégiques sont faibles, alors que dans le cas contraire, il est optimal uniquement lorsque les prix sont assez rigides et que la banque centrale détient des informations suffisamment précises sur les fondamentaux de l’économie. Dans le second essai, nous utilisons la macroéconomie expérimentale afin d’évaluer dans quelle mesure l’annonce de la cible d’inflation est pertinente dans un cadre de ciblage de l’inflation. Nos résultats montrent que lorsque la banque centrale ne se soucie que de la stabilisation de l’inflation, l’annonce de la cible d’inflation n’apporte pas de gain supplémentaire en termes de performances macro-économiques, par rapport à une politique monétaire active (type règle de Taylor). Cependant, si la banque centrale intègre également la stabilisation de l’activité économique dans ses objectifs, la communication de la cible contribue à réduire la volatilité de l’inflation, du taux d’intérêt, et de l’écart de production, bien que leurs niveaux moyens ne soient pas affectés. Ce résultat fournit ainsi une justification pour l’adoption d’un régime de ciblage flexible d’inflation par la majorité des pays ciblant l’inflation. Enfin dans le troisième essai, nous appliquons une analyse transversale ainsi que la technique des variables instrumentales, afin d’analyser les effets de la transparence des banques centrales sur les résultats macroéconomiques dans les pays émergents. Nous construisons un nouvel indice de transparence qui combine certains aspects de l’indice de transparence globale d’Eijffinger et Geraats (2006), avec ceux de l’indice de transparence sur le comité de politique monétaire de Hayo et Mazhar (2011). Nous analysons ensuite le rôle individuel de chaque composante du nouvel indice en termes de réduction du niveau de l’inflation et de sa volatilité, ainsi que de la volatilité du produit. Contrairement à la littérature antérieure, nous trouvons que le nouvel indice de transparence ainsi que ses aspects économique, politique, procédurale et de transparence sur la politique monétaire impactent négativement le niveau moyen de l’inflation, mais pas sa volatilité dans ces pays. L’unique composante du nouvel indice qui permet de réduire à la fois la volatilité de l’inflation et celle de la production est la transparence opérationnelle. Ces résultats s’avèrent robustes aux différentes spécifications de modèles économétriques utilisés dans cet essai. / This dissertation contributes to the debate on inflation targeting and central bantransparency by presenting three theoretical and empirical essays on the topic. In the first essay, we theoretically investigate the conditions under which it would be optimal for a central bank to explicitly adopt an inflation targeting regime. We propose a new theoretical framework that combines the two main frictions put forward in the literature to explain the real short run effects of monetary policy that is, heterogeneous information among agents (Phelps, 1970; Lucas, 1972), and wage or price rigidities (Taylor, 1980; Calvo, 1983). We then analyze our issue in this new framework by considering the interaction between the degree of price stickiness, and the degree of strategic complementarities in firms’ price setting. Our results show that adopting an inflation targeting regime crucially depends on the relative importance of the model’s parameters. In particular, we show that inflation targeting should always be adopted when strategic complementarities are low, while in the opposite case, it is optimal only if prices are sticky enough and the central bank holds sufficiently accurate information on the fundamentals of the economy. In the second essay, we use experimental macroeconomics to evaluate to what extent communication of the inflation target is relevant in an inflation targeting framework. Our results show that first, when the central bank only cares about inflation stabilization, announcing the inflation target does not make a difference in terms of macroeconomic performance compared to a standard active monetary policy. However, if the central bank also cares about the stabilization of the economic activity, communicating the target helps to reduce the volatility of inflation, interest rate, and output gap although their average levels are not affected. This finding provides a rationale for the adoption of flexible inflation targeting by the majority of inflation targeting countries. In the third essay, using a cross-sectional analysis and instrumental variables technique, we analyze the impact of central bank transparency on macroeconomic outcomes in emerging economies. We build a new index of transparency that combines some aspects of the overall Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) transparency index, with those of monetary policy committee transparency developed in Hayo and Mazhar (2011). We then analyze the individual role of each component of the new index in mitigating inflation and its volatility, as well as output volatility. By contrast to the previous literature, we interestingly find that the overall new index of transparency as well as its political, economic, procedural, and policy aspects negatively impact the average level of inflation, but not its volatility in these countries. The unique component of the new index that reduces the volatility of both inflation and output is operational transparency, and these results are robust to different econometric and instruments setting specifications.

The goal of the thesis: "Creation and evolution circumstances of Czechoslovak National Bank" is to describe the evolution of czechoslovak central banking since the foundation of the independent Czechoslovak Republic in 1918 until creation of Czechoslovak National Bank in 1926. Its first part is dedicated to the monetary reform of 1919, describing its theoretical foundations, methods of implementation and impacts. Second part is dedicated to the Bank Office of the Ministry of Finance as its direct predecessor. Finally, third part of the thesis describes creation, organisation and activities of the Czechoslovak National Bank alone.

Cette thèse constitue une analyse historique évolutionniste de la fonction de prêteur en dernier ressort à travers les mutations du cadre institutionnel et opérationnel des Banques Centrales. L’enjeu de ce travail de recherche est de se pencher sur les origines de l’apparition de cette théorie d'un point de vue historique comme outil d’analyse des problématiques de gestion des crises modernes. Il convient de démontrer que le dévoiement de la doctrine du PDR entraîne une incompatibilité avec le cadre institutionnel de la politique monétaire de la Banque Centrale. Ainsi, les interventions « non conventionnelles » des Banques Centrales confirment qu’il est nécessaire de sortir du cadre institutionnel censé assurer une gestion efficiente de la politique monétaire. Par conséquent, ce cadre institutionnel qui garantit notamment l’indépendance de la Banque Centrale parait inadéquat à la nouvelle pratique du prêteur en dernier ressort. L’étude historique de cette fonction permet de mettre en perspective l’évolution du rôle de prêteur en dernier ressort en tant qu’outil de prédation monétaire pour les gouvernements. En définitive, les évolutions divergentes du cadre institutionnel et opérationnel de la Banque Centrale constituent l’un des principaux signes d’une déliquescence du système bancaire centralisé (Central Banking). L’exercice de la fonction de prêteur en dernier ressort par la BCE au sein de la zone euro représente un cadre d’analyse pertinent afin d’étudier les difficultés de cette fonction dans la gouvernance d'une zone économique hétérogène et politiquement inaboutie. / This paper offers an historical analysis of the evolution of lenders of last resort (LOLR) through the institutional and operational mutations of Central Banks framework. The aim of this research is to examine the origins of the appearance of this theory from a historical perspective. It should demonstrate that the perversion of the doctrine of LOLR causes incompatibility with the institutional framework of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Thus, the "unconventional" interventions of central banks confirm the need to exit the institutional framework meant to ensure the efficient management of monetary policy. Therefore, this institutional framework which guarantees the independence of the Central Bank seems inadequate in the context of the new practice of the lender of last resort. Ultimately, diverging trends of the institutional and operational framework of the Central Bank is a major sign of demise of Central Banking. Last resort lending by the ECB in the euro zone provides a useful analytical framework to study the difficulties of the function of LOLR in the governance of a heterogeneous and politically unfulfilled economic zone.

Este trabalho busca revisitar as teorias existentes sobre reformas econômicas e democratização, em especial no que concerne às reformas financeiras liberalizantes. De acordo com o saber convencional, normalmente essas reformas afetam de modo negativo as democracias, colocando em perigo a construção de boas instituições para a sua consolidação. Ao analisar de forma mais detida a relação entre as reformas financeiras levadas a cabo pelo Banco Central do Brasil, a partir de uma conjuntura crítica ocorrida no início de 1999, e a padronização de instituições para o incremento da Supervisão Bancária, oriunda do BIS ? Banco para Compensações Internacionais, resolvemos questionar a validade universal dessa literatura ao argumentar que a construção de redes de proteção para o sistema financeiro brasileiro, num contexto de crise e oportunidades, foi possibilitado por uma maior cooperação entre esse organismo financeiro internacional e a autoridade monetária local. A contrapartida para o reforço de autoridade do Banco Central e a conseqüente implementação de instituições para a reforma financeira, no Brasil, foi um aumento da transparência das ações da autoridade monetária, concomitante a uma melhoria em seu processo de prestação de contas e responsabilização pública. A reconstrução das trajetórias que levaram a essa convergência entre um organismo internacional e uma autoridade local, numa democracia emergente de mercado, parece ser a chave para o entendimento das peculiaridades que redundaram nas falhas dos modelos unificadores de institucionalização, como aqueles preconizados pelo Consenso de Washington e adotados por outras organizações financeiras, por exemplo, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) / This thesis aims to review the well-established theories of economic reforms and democratization. The object will focus especially on the so called \"liberal financial reforms\". According to conventional wisdom, these reforms normally affect democracies deeply and jeopardize the building of sound institutions towards their consolidation. We decided to debate the universal validity of this conventional literature using the argument that the institutional building of safety nets for the Brazilian financial system - in a context of crisis and opportunities - was possible as a result of the cooperative game between an international financial organization (BIS) and the local monetary authority (BACEN). We will do that by analyzing the relation between these financial reforms led by Brazilian Central Bank more accurately, arising from a critical juncture occurred at the beginning of 1999, and the standardization of institutions for the improvement of banking supervision originated from BIS -Bank for International Settlements. The counterbalance to the reinforcement of central bank authority and the consequent implementation of institutions for the financial reform in Brazil was the increased monetary authority acts transparency and the simultaneous improvement of its mechanisms of political accountability. The study of path sequence that led to the convergence of the intentions of an international organization and a local political authority, in a emerging market democracy, seems to be the key to the comprehension of the peculiarities that resulted in the failure of the remedies that recommended a \"single model\" for the success of these reforms in new democracies, like the ones prescribed by the Washington Consensus, which were adopted by several organizations, including the International Monetary Fund - IMF