This study uses an ARDL(p, q)-model to express a long-run relationship between ‘Stockholm Interbank Offered Rate Tomorrow/Next’ and the inflation in Sweden between 2007 and 2016 to see how efficient the ‘interest rate-weapon’ as a monetary policy-tool have been in affecting the inflation. The study shows that no such relationship can be expressed – hence the conclusion that the expectations of inflation are the most important variable affecting the inflation, and that the agents in the Swedish economy have rational expectations and a trust in the central bank of Sweden to reach its target of a 2 percent inflation rate.

We analyse the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on Swedish bank profitability on the four largest banks in Sweden between 2015-2021 by utilizing daily stock prices as a proxy for bank profit. Using an event study approach, we find that QE has a significant positive effect on bank profitability in Sweden as wholesale funding conditions improve. This suggests that structural differences in bank funding have an impact on the effect of QE. Furthermore, we investigate the individual effects of QE on bank profitability. We determine that QE benefits banks with higher credit losses on their balance sheet due to improvements in debt serviceability. Finally, we complement our study by investigating how QE affects debtholders of the banks through credit default swaps (CDS). We find that QE reduces prices on CDS, therefore signalling an improvement in wholesale funding conditions. This indicates that both equity and debtholders perceive the effects of QE positively.

No description available.

O objetivo central desta tese é analisar o desempenho econômico de um conjunto amplo de países sob a ótica da competitividade externa, que explicita a competitividade estrutural relativa das economias. Para isso esta tese conta com três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio constrói um índice de qualidade da pauta exportadora e qualidade da pauta importadora para 143 países e comprova a significância desses índices na determinação da renda per capita. Além disso, o ensaio utiliza os resultados para analisar os canais de transmissão entre setor externo e renda apontados por alguns modelos de crescimento. O segundo ensaio faz um teste do modelo de crescimento sob restrição externa para um conjunto de 137 países utilizando uma nova metodologia empírica que recupera a idéia de teste conjunto sem recair em vários problemas de endogeneidade, recorrendo a técnicas de painel. O terceiro ensaio elabora um modelo Kaldoriano de causação cumulativa e o aplica para a economia brasileira no período 20032008. O modelo revela que a economia brasileira passou por um ciclo virtuoso de crescimento que se originou no mercado externo e foi internalizado pela economia. Com os argumentos explorados nos três ensaios comprova-se o papel da competitividade externa no desempenho econômico das nações e debate-se alguns dos canais de transmissão entre setor externo e renda. / The main aim of this thesis is to analyze the economic performance of nations in the 2000s on the perspective of external competitiveness. For that, this thesis has three essays. The first essay builds an index of quality of export basket and an index of quality of import basket for 143 countries and demonstrates the significance of these indexes in determining the per capita income. Moreover, the essay uses the results to discuss the transmission channels between the external sector and income indicated by some growth models. The second essay is a balance-ofpayment constrain growth test applied to a set of 137 countries, using a new empirical methodology that recovers the idea of a whole test for several countries, without falling into various problems of endogeneity, using panel techniques. The third essay elaborates a Kaldorian model of cumulative causation and applies to the Brazilian economy 20032008. The model reveals that the Brazilian economy went through a virtuous cycle of growth that originated in the external sector and was internalized by the economy. With the arguments explored in the three essays, it was possible to prove the role of external competitiveness in economic performance and to discuss some of the transmission channels between the external sector and income.

Magistrantūros studijų baigiamasis darbas, 58 puslapiai, 10 paveikslų, 7 lentelės, 64 literatūros šaltiniai, 5 priedai. PRASMINIAI ŽODŽIAI: globalinė ekonominė krizė, žemės ūkis, perdavimo kanalai, globalizacija, rinka. Tyrimo objektas – Lietuvos žemės ūkis globalinės ekonominės 2008-2009 metų krizės sąlygomis. Tyrimo tikslas – įvertinti globalinės ekonominės 2008-2009 metų krizės poveikį Lietuvos žemės ūkiui. Uždaviniai: 1) atskleisti ekonominio ciklo koncepciją šiuolaikinių ekonominių teorijų kontekste; 2) išanalizavus globalinės ekonominės 2008-2009 metų krizės priežastis, identifikuoti šios krizės perdavimo kitų šalių ekonomikoms kanalus; 3) pateikti požiūrių į globalinės ekonominės 2008-2009 metų krizės poveikį žemės ūkiui analizę ir identifikuoti rodiklius, padėsiančius įvertinti jos poveikį žemės ūkiui; 4) remiantis identifikuotais rodikliais atlikti globalinės ekonominės 2008-2009 metų krizės poveikio Lietuvos žemės ūkiui statistinę analizę. Tyrimo metodai. Mokslinėje literatūroje pateikiamų teiginių ir rodiklių sisteminimas bei lyginamoji analizė, užsienio autorių tyrimų rezultatų apibendrinimas, ekonominių – statistinių duomenų rinkimas ir analizė. Statistinei informacijai apdoroti ir sisteminti panaudoti grupavimo, palyginimo ir grafinio vaizdavimo būdai. Statistiniam vertinimui atlikti naudojamas programos paketas „STATISTICA“. Analizuojamai medžiagai apibendrinti, darbo išvadoms suformuluoti naudoti loginis ir apibendrinimo metodai. Tyrimo rezultatai. Pirmojoje... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Final work of Undegradeduate Studies, 58 pages, 10 figures, 7 tables, 64 References, 5 appendices, in Lithuanian. KEY words: global economic crisis, agricultural sector, transmission channels, globalization, market. Research object – agriculture in Lithuania in the conditions of global economic crisis in 2008-2009. Research aim – to evaluate the effects of global economic crisis in 2008-2009 on the Lithuanian agriculture. Objectives: 1) to demonstrate the concept of economic cycle in the context of modern economic theories; 2) to analyse the reasons of global economic crisis in 2008-2009, to identify the transmission channels of this crisis to the economies of other countries; 3) to analyse the approaches to the impact of global economic crisis in 2008-2009 on agriculture, to identify indicators that help to evaluate its effects on agriculture; 4) to perform the statistical analysis of the impact of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 on the Lithuanian agriculture. Research methods. Systematization, comparative analysis, analysis of scientific literature, data collection and analysis, clustering, graphical visualization, STATISTICA software package. Research results. The first part describes the concept of economic cycle in terms of modern economic theories and identifies the transmission channels of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 to the economies of other countries. The second part of the work, after carrying out the analysis of approaches to the impact of... [to full text]

O objetivo central desta tese é analisar o desempenho econômico de um conjunto amplo de países sob a ótica da competitividade externa, que explicita a competitividade estrutural relativa das economias. Para isso esta tese conta com três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio constrói um índice de qualidade da pauta exportadora e qualidade da pauta importadora para 143 países e comprova a significância desses índices na determinação da renda per capita. Além disso, o ensaio utiliza os resultados para analisar os canais de transmissão entre setor externo e renda apontados por alguns modelos de crescimento. O segundo ensaio faz um teste do modelo de crescimento sob restrição externa para um conjunto de 137 países utilizando uma nova metodologia empírica que recupera a idéia de teste conjunto sem recair em vários problemas de endogeneidade, recorrendo a técnicas de painel. O terceiro ensaio elabora um modelo Kaldoriano de causação cumulativa e o aplica para a economia brasileira no período 20032008. O modelo revela que a economia brasileira passou por um ciclo virtuoso de crescimento que se originou no mercado externo e foi internalizado pela economia. Com os argumentos explorados nos três ensaios comprova-se o papel da competitividade externa no desempenho econômico das nações e debate-se alguns dos canais de transmissão entre setor externo e renda. / The main aim of this thesis is to analyze the economic performance of nations in the 2000s on the perspective of external competitiveness. For that, this thesis has three essays. The first essay builds an index of quality of export basket and an index of quality of import basket for 143 countries and demonstrates the significance of these indexes in determining the per capita income. Moreover, the essay uses the results to discuss the transmission channels between the external sector and income indicated by some growth models. The second essay is a balance-ofpayment constrain growth test applied to a set of 137 countries, using a new empirical methodology that recovers the idea of a whole test for several countries, without falling into various problems of endogeneity, using panel techniques. The third essay elaborates a Kaldorian model of cumulative causation and applies to the Brazilian economy 20032008. The model reveals that the Brazilian economy went through a virtuous cycle of growth that originated in the external sector and was internalized by the economy. With the arguments explored in the three essays, it was possible to prove the role of external competitiveness in economic performance and to discuss some of the transmission channels between the external sector and income.

L’expérience de la récente crise financière a renforcé l’importance accordée à l’introduction de l’incertitude dansle processus d’élaboration de la politique monétaire. Cette thèse s’est donné pour objectif d’évaluer lesdifférentes implications de l’incertitude dans la stratégie de politique monétaire menée au sein de la BEAC. Pourcela, nous avons évalué le degré d’indépendance de cette institution et l’un des résultats remarquable a été lebesoin de la part des banques centrales d’obtenir plus d’indépendance vis-à-vis de leurs gouvernements surtouten période de tensions, afin de crédibiliser un peu plus les politiques mises en oeuvre. Après avoir identifié lesdifférentes formes d’incertitude pouvant caractériser le contexte spécifique à la zone CEMAC, il est apparu dansnotre étude que le problème d’hétérogénéité du mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire dans cetteunion monétaire constitue une grande source d’incertitude pour les décideurs. A travers une analyse descriptivesimple, nous avons pu évaluer les asymétries de transmission. Le résultat nous indique que la mise en oeuvred’une politique monétaire expansionniste, caractérisée par une augmentation de la masse monétaire n’a pasforcément les mêmes effets d’un pays à l’autre. Bien que l’analyse de l’hétérogénéité nous révèle des structuresfinancières hétérogènes, le problème de l’hétérogénéité dans cette zone réside surtout au niveau des délais detransmission de la politique monétaire conduisant les pays à mener des politiques budgétaire pro-cycliques pourfaire face aux chocs. Ces résultats sont renforcés par une analyse du processus de convergence des économiesdes pays membres de la zone à travers le dispositif de surveillance multilatérale, car malgré les efforts en termesd’intégration, des disparités subsistent entre ces pays notamment en matière budgétaire. / The experience of the recent financial crisis has strengthened the importance of the introduction of uncertainty inthe monetary policy design. This thesis has the objective to assess different implications of the uncertainty in themonetary policy strategy conducted within the BEAC. For this, we have evaluated the degree of independence ofthat institution and one of the prominent results was the requirement for central banks to be more independentbeside their governments, especially during financial stress period, in order to give more credit to policyimplementation. After an identification of different forms of uncertainty that may characterize the specificcontext of the CEMAC zone, it has appeared in our study that the heterogeneity problem of monetary policytransmission in this monetary union is the main source of uncertainty for policymakers. Through a simpledescriptive analysis, we were able to evaluate asymmetries transmission. The study reveals that theimplementation of an expansionary monetary policy, characterized by an increase of the money supply does notnecessarily provide the same effects from one country to another. Although the analysis of heterogeneity revealsheterogeneous financial structures, the heterogeneity problem in this area especially concern the transmissionlags of monetary policy, leading countries to adopt pro-cyclical fiscal policies in order to respond to shocks.These findings are reinforced by an analysis of the process of economic convergence of the members countriesof the zone through the multilateral surveillance mechanism, and despite the efforts in terms of integration, somedifferences still exist between those countries, particularly in term of fiscal policy.

Cette thèse analyse les conséquences des transformations de la sphère financière sur les canaux de transmission des décisions de politique monétaire, au cours de ces dernières années dans les pays industrialisés. Elle observe que du fait de ces transformations, les établissements bancaires sont passés d’un modèle d’« octroi et détention du crédit » (originate to hold) à un modèle d’« octroi puis cession du crédit » (originate to distribute), ce qui leur permet de recourir davantage aux produits dérivés et à des instruments de transfert du risque de crédit. Elle démontre que ces techniques de gestion actif/passif ont complètement bouleversé les fondements théoriques des canaux traditionnels, en particulier, du canal du crédit. Pour expliquer ces bouleversements, l’analyse a été structurée en deux parties. La première met en évidence, à travers le principe d’accélérateur financier, la manière dont la déconnexion partielle entre la croissance de l’offre de crédits et celle des dépôts bancaires a tendance à renforcer le canal du crédit alors qu’on devait s’attendre à son affaiblissement du fait que toutes les hypothèses-clés mises en avant par Bernanke et Blinder (1988) ont été fragilisées par les innovations financières. La deuxième partie montre, en s’appuyant sur les études empiriques, comment le canal des taux d’intérêt s’est renforcé grâce à la financiarisation croissance des économies industrialisées et à la flexibilité du cadre opérationnel de la politique monétaire. / This dissertation analyses the consequences of transformations in the financial sphere on the transmission channels of decisions in monetary policy in industrialized countries over the past several years. We observe that as a result of these transformations, banking institutions have evolved from an originate to hold model to an originate to distribute model. This has enabled banks to turn more toward derivative products and credit risk transfer instruments. We demonstrate that these techniques of active/passive management have completely revolutionized the theoretical foundations of traditional channels and in particular the credit channel. Our analysis of these landmark changes is organized into two parts. The first part reveals, using the principle of the financial accelerator, the manner in which the partial disconnection between the growth of the credit offer and that of banking deposits tends to reinforce the credit channel. This reinforcement flies in the face of expectations, given that the key hypotheses formulated by Bernanke and Blinder (1988) have been undermined by financial innovations. The second part of the dissertation uses empirical studies to demonstrate how the interest rate channel has been reinforced thanks to growing financialization in the industrialized economies and to the flexibility of the operational framework of monetary policy.

No description available.

Cette thèse s’articule autour de trois essais consacrés à l’analyse de la surliquidité bancaire dans les pays de la CEMAC. Le premier essai a cherché à identifier les déterminants de la surliquidité des pays membres de la CEMAC sur la période de 1985 à 2002. L’estimation GMM utilisé a permis de montrer que la surliquidité en Afrique Centrale dérive à la fois du comportement de précaution des banques commerciales et des facteurs exogènes. La grande prudence des banques peut s’expliquer par l’expérience de la crise financière des années 1980, la restructuration du système bancaire, l’instabilité des dépôts et un contexte économique très risqué. L’embellie du cours du pétrole alimente les réserves excédentaires due à la faible capacité d’absorption des pays de la zone. Dans le deuxième essai, il a été question d’identifier les canaux de transmission les plus opérationnels en Afrique Centrale. La modélisation VAR a permis de montrer que le taux d’intérêt est le canal le plus faible. C’est précisément la carence d’un marché financier qui ne permet pas d’assurer le rôle de recyclage de la liquidité bancaire et de la transmission de la politique monétaire. Dans le troisième essai, a été élaboré un modèle de prévision d’inflation dans un des pays membres de la CEMAC à savoir le Tchad. Les modèles BVAR se sont révélés en Afrique Centrale être plus efficaces que les outils traditionnels (AR, ARIMA, VAR).L’analyse de sensibilité entreprise par l’approche bayesienne indique que la surliquidité exercerait des tensions inflationnistes dans la zone. / This thesis is based on three essays focused on analysis of the excess liquidity in the CEMAC countries. The first one identifies the determinants of excess liquidity in developing countries by studying the case of CEMAC member countries from 1985 to 2002. The GMM estimator used has shown that the excess liquidity in Central Africa derived from both the prudence of commercial banks and exogenous factors. The precaution of Commercial Banks can be explained by the financial crisis in 1980s, the restructuring of the banking system, the instability of deposits and a very risky economic environment. The increasing in oil prices fueling excess reserves due to the low absorption capacity of countries in the region. In the second essay, it was discussed the transmission channels in Central Africa. The VAR model used has shown that the interest rate channel is the lowest. This is exactly the lack of a financial market that does not allow ensuring the function of the recycling of liquidity and the transmission of mone ary policy. At the last essay, it was developed a forecasting model of inflation in Chad which is member of CEMAC countries. BVAR models have been shown in Chad to be more effective than traditional tools (AR, ARIMA and VAR). A sensitivity analysis undertaken by the Bayesian approach indicates that the excess liquidity would exert inflationary pressures.