Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T17:04:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 20 / Nenhuma / Esta pesquisa propõe um método e um modelo matemático fundamentado na métrica Customer Lifetime Value para analisar conjuntamente as preferências e percepções dos consumidores, a relação destas preferências com o sistema de produção e potenciais ações de melhorias no processo produtivo. O método de pesquisa empregado apresenta três fases, a primeira explora a literatura na busca de elementos relevantes ao objetivo proposto. A segunda fase propõe o modelo matemático e o método de avaliação de melhorias e a terceira fase aplica as propostas em um contexto real. Essa aplicação possibilita a avaliação da validade prática dos resultados para a empresa analisada e a análise de viabilidade de utilização do modelo e do método. Os três pilares de sustentação do modelo são os consumidores de um dado mercado com as suas necessidades e percepções em relação aos bens e serviços, as características atribuídas pela produção e as regras para análise do impacto da adoção de diferentes melhorias no sistema produtivo sobre o v / This research aims to propose a method and a mathematic model based on a metric Customer Lifetime Value to analyze jointly the consumer’s preferences and perceptions, the relation between preferences and productive system and potential improvements on productive process. The applied research method shows three stages: the first one explores the literature to find relevant elements for the proposed objective; the second one aims the mathematic model and the evaluation method of improvements and the last one applies all proposals in a real case. This case study allows to analyze practiced results generated by the model and the method and to evaluate application viability analyses. The model is sustained by three fundamental elements: consumers, with their necessities and perceptions about the products and services desired; characteristics of the productive system; and rules to analyze the impact of adoption of different improvements on the productive on the Customer Lifetime Value. The method focuses on interf

Um dos objetivos dos projetos e estudos na área de transporte público é atrair o maior número possível de viagens. Um primeiro passo para estimular uma maior utilização do transporte público pode ser a captação de pessoas que já têm predisposição para utilizá-lo, mas que não o fazem por alguma deficiência específica no serviço. Este é o contexto no qual mapas que representam o potencial de utilização dos transportes públicos podem desempenhar um papel importante, como discutido neste estudo. A pesquisa tem como objetivo principal a aplicação e avaliação de duas técnicas destinadas a identificar potenciais usuários de transporte público e como estes se distribuem geograficamente em uma cidade brasileira selecionada para o estudo. Nas técnicas aqui exploradas, o município em análise é dividido em áreas em função do código de endereçamento postal. Estas áreas são caracterizadas pelos atributos socioeconômicos da sua população e do sistema de transporte. Diante da hipótese de melhoria na qualidade do transporte público, dois segmentos de usuários de automóvel foram determinados: usuários que trocariam para ônibus e usuários que ainda preferem o carro. Com isso, foi construído um modelo capaz de representar o comportamento de escolha dos usuários de cada área. A metodologia proposta envolve quatro passos: i) comparação de modelos Logit elaborados com dados de São Carlos (Brasil) e Wageningen (Holanda), ii) ajustes no modelo de São Carlos, iii) elaboração de um modelo de escolha modal por redes neurais artificiais e iv) elaboração dos mapas potenciais. As duas últimas etapas foram concebidas tanto para análises independentes, como também para comparação com o modelo Logit. Assim, a construção de cenários futuros permitiu identificar e localizar espacialmente os potenciais usuários de transporte público. Foi possível verificar também qual a influência de alguns atributos sobre a escolha do modo de transporte urbano. Por exemplo, usuários de domicílios com três ou quatro pessoas têm menor probabilidade de vir a utilizar o ônibus regularmente. Por fim, um cenário futuro tornou possível destacar áreas onde é esperado um aumento do potencial de uso do transporte público devido a mudanças nos valores de densidade populacional. / One of the objectives of projects and studies on public transport is to attract the largest possible number of trips. A first step for increasing transit ridership may be the attraction of those individuals who already have a predisposition to use the service, but do not use it because of any specific inadequacies. This is the context in which maps displaying the potential use of public transport may play an important role, as discussed in this study. The research aims at the application and evaluation of two techniques used to identify potential users of public transport and to show how they are geographically distributed in a Brazilian city selected for the study. In the techniques discussed here, the municipality under analysis is divided into areas according to the postal codes of the streets. These areas are characterized by socioeconomic attributes of the population and of the transport system. Two segments of automobile users were determined, under the assumption that the quality of public transport would be improved: users who would switch to buses and users who still prefer the car. Based on that, a model designed to represent the choice behavior of users in each urban area was built. The proposed methodology involved four steps: i) the comparison of Logit models built with data of São Carlos (Brazil) and Wageningen (The Netherlands), ii) adjustments in the model of São Carlos, iii) the development of a mode choice model based on artificial neural networks, and iv) construction of potential maps. The third and fourth steps were meant for both independent analysis, and also for comparison with the Logit model. Thus, the construction of future scenarios allowed the identification and spatial location of potential users of public transport. It was also possible to learn about the influence of some attributes on urban transportation choice. For example, users living in households with three or four persons are less likely to become bus riders. Finally, a future scenario was able to highlight the areas where the potential for public transport could be increased due to changes in population density values.

Secretaria do Planejamento e GestÃo / As from informations upon 111.123 active and retired state public workers from the executive power of the state of CearÃ, regarding to the month of April of 2012, and informations regarding to the payroll of the state public service, wag-es and discount values with monthly deduction from the payroll, this paper ana-lyzes the determinants of the likelihood of a public state worker to be indebted or over-indebted, taking into account that this second category is characteristi-cally indebted over the average of its group. Dual dependent variable models with probit theory are developed and the results show that in the functional cat-egory groups, the probability of indebtedness varies from 40 and 75 per cent, and the over-indebtedness varies from 27 and 75 per cent, which means a criti-cal financial situation of the state worker. / A partir de dados para 111.123 servidores pÃblicos estaduais ativos e aposentados do Poder Executivo do estado do CearÃ, com referÃncia em abril de 2012, e informaÃÃes referentes à folha de pagamento do serviÃo pÃblico estadual, remuneraÃÃo e valores de descontos com emprÃstimos consignados em folha de pagamento, esta dissertaÃÃo analisa os determinantes da probabilidade de um servidor pÃblico do estado estar endividado ou sobre-endividado, sendo esta Ãltima categoria caracterizada pela existÃncia de um endividamento acima da mÃdia de seu grupo. Modelos de variÃvel dependente binÃria com hipÃtese Probit sÃo desenvolvidos e os resultados permitem inferir que no conjunto das categorias funcionais, a propensÃo ao endividamento varia de 40% a 75% e ao sobre-endividamento varia de 27% a 75%, o que sinaliza uma situaÃÃo financeira crÃtica dos servidor estadual.

La modélisation est un moyen qui permet de prévoir le comportement futur de différents phénomènes. Dans la planification urbaine elle est aussi utilisée pour aider les planificateurs à faire face aux multiples défis d'urbanisme. Le système urbain est tellement complexe qu'il n'est pas possible de prévoir avec exactitude le comportement de différents agents. L'économie urbaine a tenté d'apporter certaines explications, mais elle reste insuffisante pour cerner toutes les interactions qui existent entre les différents agents. L'objet de ma thèse rentre dans le cadre de cette problématique, elle est structurée en deux parties. Dans la première nous traitons de la modélisation des interactions entre transport (urbain) et occupation du sol (urbanisation), c'est une étude à l'échelle microéconomique, et la deuxième porte sur l'analyse des émissions polluantes des transports et évaluation des projets de transport interurbain dans le cadre du développement durable, cela est traité à un niveau plus agrégé. Les applications sont menées sur la région l'Île-de-France.Dans la première partie nous procédons à la mise en interconnexion de deux logiciels, un d'urbanisme (UrbanSim) et l'autre de transport (METROPOLIS) afin de créer un système intégré dit LUTI (Land Use-Transport Interaction). Le comportement des agents est intercepté à travers des estimations, pour cela une série d'estimations est réalisée, à savoir : localisation des ménages, localisation des emplois, le processus de création des projets urbains et le prix de location et de vente des logements. Le système est calé sur les données de recensement de 2006. L'application est menée sur deux niveaux de découpages de la zone d'étude ; l'un est fin, en cellules carrées de 500 x 500 mètre et l'autre en communes.Dans la deuxième partie, nous nous sommes intéressés à l'évaluation des émissions de gaz à effet dans les transports et à la réalisation d'une étude de rentabilité économique et environnementale du projet d'extension du canal Seine-Nord Europe. En effet, dans le cadre de la politique française de lutte contre les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, les reports modaux de modes de transports polluants vers les modes propres sont encouragés. C'est bien le cas du projet SNE, par lequel les autorités espèrent un transfert modal de la route vers la voie fluviale. Son objectif est d'étendre l'usage de ce canal à des péniches à grand gabarit. En l'état actuel, le canal ne permet de passer que les péniches à petit gabarit, d'une charge n'excédant pas les 600 tonnes. Notre but est de réaliser une analyse coût-bénéfice à cette extension en introduisant une dimension stochastique à la fonction de la demande et au prix de l'énergie. / Modeling is used to predict the future behavior of different phenomena. In urban planning it is also used to help planners to cope with multiple challenges of urban planning. The urban system is so complex that it is impossible to accurately predict the behavior of different agents. The urban economics has attempted to provide some explanation, but still not sufficient to identify all interactions between the different agents. The purpose of my thesis is within the framework of this subject. It is structured into two parts. In the first one we discuss the modeling of land use/Transport interactions, a study at a microscopic level. The second is the analysis of pollutant emissions and transport project assessment in the context of sustainable development. The latter is processed at a more aggregated level. We apply our models to Île-de-France region.In the first part we proceed by linking two softwares, a land use model (UrbanSim) and a transport model (METROPOLIS), to create an integrated system LUTI (Land-Use and Transport Interaction).The behavior of agents is intercepted through estimates. For that estimation is performed, such as: household location, employment location, urban projects location and the rent and selling prices of housing. The system is calibrated on data from Census 2006. The application is carried out on two levels of geographical units; the first one is a gridcell of 500 x 500 meters and the second in administrative zoning municipalities.In the second part, we were interested in the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in transport and a study of economic and environmental efficiency of the Seine-Nord Europe project. Indeed, in the context of French politics to fight against greenhouse gas emissions, modal shift from polluting modes of transport to clean modes is encouraged. This is the case of the project SNE, in which the authorities hope a modal shift from road to inland waterways. Its aim is to extend the use of this canal to wide-gauge barges. As it stands, the canal allow access only to narrow gauge barges, with load not exceeding 600 tones. Our aim is to perform a cost-benefit analysis for this extension by introducing a stochastic dimension to the function of demand and energy price.

No description available.

The study examines the job market of «urban youth» aged between 18 and 35 without higher education (university or technical) based on household surveys (Encuesta Nacional de Hogares – Enaho) and specialized surveys (Encuesta Nacional de Habilidades – Enhab; Encuesta de Transición de la Escuela al Trabajo – Entrans). The results show, firstly, supply constraints in the period 2007- 2012, which coincides with the massification of higher education over the last ten years. Secondly, it was found that students from public schools are more liable to complete high school with maxi- mum educational attainment. Thirdly, it was estimated that urban youths aged 15 to 29 cited in the Entrans 2012—and who received job training in the year prior to the survey—are 4.1 times more likely to obtain «adequate employment» in terms of pay, adequate contracts, and health insurance. Finally, a case is made for strengthening technical and specialized skills taught at school. / El estudio examina el mercado laboral de «jóvenes urbanos» entre 18 y 35 años de edad sin estudios superiores (universitarios o técnicos) a partir de Encuestas de Hogares (Enaho) y encuestas especializadas (Enhab, Entrans). Los resultados muestran, en primer lugar, una contracción de la oferta en el período 2007-2012 que coincide con la masificación de la educación superior de los últimos diez años. Segundo, se halló que los estudiantes de escuelas públicas son más propensos a alcanzar un máximo nivel educativo de secundaria completa. Tercero, se estimó que los jóvenes urbanos de 15 a 29 años reportados en la Entrans 2012 y que recibieron capacitaciones laborales durante el año anterior a la encuesta tienen 4,1 veces mayor probabilidad de obtener «empleados adecuados» —en términos de remuneraciones, contratos adecuados y seguro de salud. Finalmente, se propone potenciar las capacitaciones de tipo técnico y de especialización impartidas durante la escuela.

Les préférences des ménages français pour les travaux de rénovation énergétique dans le logement ont été peu étudiées jusqu’à présent. Or, elles sont la clé d’une politique énergétique efficace et réaliste pour le secteur résidentiel, tant au niveau des aides proposées, qu’au niveau des objectifs à réaliser. Les ménages sont-ils intéressés par des travaux à fort potentiel d’économie d’énergie ? Combien sont-ils prêt à payer et est-ce que c’est suffisant pour couvrir les coûts réels ? Combien de ménages n’ont pas le choix de leur mode de chauffage et quel est leur profil ?La thèse s'attache à répondre à ces questions de façon empirique à l’aide de modèles de choix discrets. Il s’agit, dans un premier temps, d’analyser les contraintes techniques, sociodémographiques et spatiales que rencontrent les ménages et qui entravent les choix énergétiques dans le logement. Une méthodologie de détection des ménages contraints a été proposée, puis appliquée au choix du chauffage en 2006 et 2013. Dans un deuxième temps, les préférences des ménages pour les équipements de chauffage et les travaux de rénovation ont été analysées. Cette deuxième partie utilise une enquête expérimentale qui a été réalisée spécialement pour ce travail de recherche auprès de 2000 ménages. Ce travail a permis de comprendre les préférences des ménages, leur hétérogénéité, et d’en déduire les consentements à payer, les taux d’actualisation implicites et les différents effets économiques. / Little research has been done to date on French households’ preferences for energy retrofits in the dwelling. However, the economic role of these choices is crucial for implementing an effective and realistic energy policy in the residential sector, both in terms of proposed aid and targets. Are households interested in retrofits with high energy-savings potential? How much are they willing to pay and is it sufficient to cover the up-front costs? How many households have no choice of heating system, and what is their profile?This work sets out to answer these questions empirically using discrete choice models. It starts by analyzing the technical, socio-demographic and spatial constraints that face households and create barriers to domestic energy choices. A method to detect household constraint is devised and applied to the choice of space heating system in 2006 and 2013. The second stage analyzes household preferences for heating equipment and retrofits. This second part is based on a discrete choice experiment specially carried out for this research among 2,000 households. This work sheds light on households’ preferences and heterogeneity, as well as their willingness to pay, the implicit discount rate and other economic impacts.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMAA.pdf: 804171 bytes, checksum: a9e4a03249fb28379176634688b6e566 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-08-29 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The objective of this dissertation is to verify if there is a relationship between the characteristics of the urban form and option for walking trips. For this relationship to be studied, the first step was a bibliographic review about the urban form characteristics that might influence the option for walking. Among the methodologies that could be used to evaluate the modal option, a logit-type Discrete Choice Model, was chosen. The data used for the calibration of the model were collected in São Carlos, SP, a Brazilian medium-sized city with around 200 thousand inhabitants. The analyses were developed at census tract level, with a Geographic Information System (TransCAD). Two logit-type models were calibrated. The first one (basic) includes only a socio-economic variable (automobile availability) and the trip length. The second model (expanded) includes, besides the variables of the basic model, information about the characteristic of the urban form in the trip origin sectors. The comparison of the results obtained with the two models, allowed the evaluation of the marginal influence of urban form variables on the mode choice. In general, the expanded model was statistically better then the basic one. The results suggest that urban form characteristics do influence the individuals´ option for walking. / O objetivo desta pesquisa é verificar se existe relação entre as características da forma urbana e a opção dos indivíduos pelas viagens a pé. Para que essa relação pudesse ser estudada foi feito, inicialmente, um levantamento bibliográfico sobre as características da forma urbana que influenciam na opção pelo modo a pé. Dentre as metodologias mais usuais para avaliar o relacionamento entre as características da forma urbana e a opção pelo modo de transporte, foi selecionado o Modelo Comportamental ou de Escolha Discreta do tipo Logit. Os dados necessários à calibração do modelo foram coletados na cidade de São Carlos, SP, uma cidade de porte médio com cerca de 200 mil habitantes. As análises necessárias foram realizadas em nível de setor censitário e implementadas com o auxilio de um Sistema de Informações Geográficas. Foram calibrados dois modelos do tipo Logit. O primeiro modelo (básico) inclui apenas uma variável socioeconômica (disponibilidade de automóvel) e o comprimento da viagem a ser realizada. O segundo modelo (expandido) inclui, além das variáveis do modelo básico, informações sobre as características do meio físico urbano nos setores de origem das viagens. A comparação dos resultados obtidos com os modelos básico e expandido permitiu avaliar o efeito da inclusão das variáveis da forma urbana na expressão da utilidade do modo a pé. De maneira geral, o modelo expandido se mostrou estatisticamente melhor que o modelo básico. Os resultados permitem inferir que as características da forma urbana influenciam o comportamento dos indivíduos ao optar pelo modo a pé para realização de suas viagens.

This thesis investigates the sensitivity of derived monetary valuations of the well-being effects of non-market goods, by considering, in turn, the four components that contribute to these calculations. Comparisons are made to the current subjective well-being (SWB) literature by altering one component at a time in a willingness to pay (WTP) function, in addition to varying the estimator used when calculating WTP. The first component varied is the measure of income used; a more robust, up-to-date measure is proposed that takes into account household size, economies of scale and composition, plus other improvements over current income scaling approaches including equivalence scales. Secondly, anticipation and adaptation effects are examined, in order to allow for the dynamics of SWB in WTP valuations. Thirdly, due to the ordered nature of the dependent variable, the effects of both cardinal and ordinal models on WTP derivations are investigated. Such models include the ordered logit fixed effects (FE) model (see for example Das and Van Soest (1999), Ferrer-i-Carbonell and Frijters (2004) and Baetschmann et al. (2011)). The final input to be varied is whether income endogeneity is accounted for. A control function approach is used in this case. A key finding is that all four inputs in the WTP calculation contribute significantly to the estimated WTP values. However, the degree to which each input influences the variation in WTP values differs substantially. The three main contributing factors to WTP variations are the income variable chosen, anticipation and adaptation effects, and controlling for endogeneity. Additionally, this thesis proposes a new way to define WTP that is also valid for ordered estimators. Whilst the standard WTP approach relies simply on coefficient ratios at a point in time, the method proposed here uses the finding that statistically significant anticipation and adaptation effects, along with adaptation to all non-market events (except for unemployment) suggest that there are concerns with taking WTP values as yearly valuations that assume constant effects on SWB. By instead defining WTP as the summation of the value of all WTP effects over all lag and lead effect periods, the total value of an event can be calculated. This definition presents further weaknesses of the original method by showing that because of significant lag and lead effects for events such as divorce and widowhood, these events have substantially larger WTP values than first thought. This leads to the major finding in this study that rank orders are not preserved when controlling for income endogeneity, even when comparing two model specifications that are identical in all other respects. Therefore, despite absolute WTP valuations appearing more similar for linear and ordered estimators when a more appropriate model specification is in place, the rank orders are affected. This finding argues against papers such as Powdthavee and van den Berg (2011) that find that rank orders are preserved for WTP valuations when modelling SWB. In conclusion, given rank orders are generally not preserved when a small change is made in the model specification, the validity of the WTP method is significantly reduced. Finally, the above methodology is applied to education, with the main contribution to the education literature being that the positive effects on SWB from education only exist in terms of lead effects.

nÃo hà / A partir de dados dos sistemas corporativos E-controle e Sistema Folha de Pagamento dos servidores pÃblicos do estado do Cearà e dos relatÃrios de auditoria de gestÃo elaborados pela Controladoria e Ouvidoria Geral do Estado no perÃodo de 2008 a 2011, este estudo desenvolveu modelos que permitiram estimar a probabilidade de ocorrÃncia de irregularidades e recomendaÃÃes de auditorias nos ÃrgÃos pÃblicos do Estado do CearÃ. As estimaÃÃes dos modelos de variÃveis dependentes binÃrias permitiram concluir que cerca de 31% das auditorias realizadas apresentaram irregularidades acima da mÃdia, conquanto em 35% destas auditorias foram verificadas recomendaÃÃes acima da mÃdia. A eficiÃncia nos empenhos e o orÃamento executado por servidor do ÃrgÃo analisado influenciam a reduÃÃo do nÃmero de irregularidades conquanto o valor executado por meio de convÃnios està relacionado ao aumento do nÃmero de constataÃÃes e recomendaÃÃes de auditoria. / From corporate data E-control systems and Payroll System for civil servants of the state of Cearà and Management Audit Reports prepared by the Controladoria e Ouvidoria Geral do Estado in the period 2008-2011, this study developed models that allowed estimate the probability of occurrence of irregularities and audit recommendations in public units of the State of CearÃ. The estimates of the models for binary dependent variables showed that about 31% of audits showed irregularities above average, although in 35% of these audits recommendations above average were observed. The efficiency in commitments and in executed budget by the server of the public unit influence the reduction of the detected irregularities while the value executed by voluntary transfer of resources are related to increases in the number of audit findings and recommendations.