A meta deste trabalho é propor um procedimento para identificar os fatores que influem no uso de bicicletas e apresentar a forma como estes fatores podem ser usados para avaliar e planejar a implantação de ciclovias e/ou ciclofaixas em uma área urbana. Para tanto, foi elaborado um método que consistiu, inicialmente, de obtenção de dados socioeconômicos e de viagens urbanas de locais dotados de ciclovias e/ou ciclofaixas disponíveis para a população e de contagens volumétricas de ciclistas antes e depois da implantação da infraestrutura cicloviária. Em seguida, foi realizado um experimento que consistiu de caracterização dos dados socioeconômicos, de viagens urbanas e de infraestrutura cicloviária, a partir das quais foi estimado um modelo de escolha discreta que possibilitou a identificação de fatores que influem no uso da bicicleta na RMBS e que serviu para quantificar a demanda cicloviária em pontos preestabelecidos. Através da construção de cenários antes e depois da implantação da infraestrutura cicloviária e da comparação entre contagens volumétricas de ciclistas da RMBS, realizadas em vários pontos da rede viária, e a estimação da demanda cicloviária nestes pontos usando o modelo de escolha discreta, concluiu-se que o modelo permite identificar e quantificar os fatores e a forma como eles interferem na demanda cicloviária e que, portanto, os resultados podem ser usados para avaliar e direcionar as intervenções no sistema de transportes com o intuito de facilitar o uso do modo bicicleta. / The main aim of this work is to propose a procedure to identify and quantify the factors that influence the use of bicycles and to present how these factors can be used to evaluate and plan the deployment of segregated bike lanes and/or cyclelanes in an urban area. For attaining the aims, a method was developed and consisted firstly in to obtain socioeconomic data and urban travel data in places equipped with segregated bike lanes and/or cyclelanes available to the population and with counts of cyclists before and after the implementation of cycling infrastructure. Then, an experiment was conducted which consisted of characterization of the socioeconomic data and urban trips and cycling infrastructure from which a discrete choice model was estimated that allowed the identification of factors that influence the use of bicycles in a RMBS and was used to quantify the cycling demand on predetermined points. By the construction of scenarios before and after the implementation of cycling infrastructure and the comparison between counts of cyclists in a RMBS and the estimation of cycling demand in these points using discrete choice model, the main conclusion of this work is that the model allow us to identify and quantify the factors and how they interfere in a cycling demand. Therefore the results can be used to evaluate and direct interventions in the transport system in order to facilitate use of bicycle mode.

Esta pesquisa objetivou uma melhor compreensão do processo de escolha do modo de viagem. Empregou-se a abordagem indutiva dirigida a dados livre de suposições a priori da mineração em banco de dados (Data Mining), utilizando redes neurais artificiais (RNA) como ferramenta mineradora, à procura de conhecimento, ou informação útil, a respeito de escolha e capaz de indicar qual das estruturas de decisão subjacentes aos modelos de escolha modal considerados mais se aproximaria ao do observado. Partindo-se da ideia de que nesse processo exista um padrão o qual pode ser captado por uma RNA, ajustou-se um modelo de RNA aos dados e extraiu-se então o conhecimento contido no modelo de RNA ajustado através de um algoritmo de extração de árvore de decisão de RNA chamado Trepan (Trees parroting network), que foi analisado e interpretado à luz dos objetivos desta pesquisa. Os dados que foram utilizados nesse processo de descoberta de conhecimento são provenientes de uma pesquisa de entrevista domiciliar realizada na cidade de Bauru - SP, para fins de estimativa da matriz de deslocamentos origem-destino dessa cidade. Obteve-se quatro árvores de decisão com estruturas simples e com a araucária preditiva de 75% aproximadamente para os três modos de viagem estudados. Embora o conhecimento extraído dos modelos neurais ajustados não tenham proporcionado a indicação de qual das estruturas de decisão subjacentes aos modelos de escolha modal mais se aproxima da obtida com o modelo neural, foi constatada nas árvores resultantes do processo de descoberta do conhecimento uma relação de compensação entre o atributo sexo e os atributos relacionados à capacidade econômica do domicílio na decisão de escolha do modo carro para a realização de uma viagem. Os resultados também sugerem a não necessidade de mais um atributo de entrada referente ao deslocamento realizado em uma viagem para modelagem por RNA do processo de escolha do modo de viagem no contexto estudado. / This research aimed at a better understanding of the mode travel choice process. The inductive data driven free from a priori assumptions of the data mining approach was employed, using artificial neural networks (ANN) as a mining tool, looking for knowledge or useful information, concerning the choice process and capable of indicating which of the underlying decision structures to the considered modal choice models would come closer to the observed one. Taking into consideration that there is a pattern in this process that can be captured by ANN, an ANN model was fitted (trained) to the data, and the knowledge contained in the trained ANN model was extracted by employing an ANN decision tree extraction algorithm called Trepan (Trees parroting network), which was analysed and interpreted in the light of the object of this research. The data which was employed in this knowledge discovery process come from a household survey carried out in Bauru - SP in order to estimate the O-D matrix in this city. Four decision trees with simple structures and predicting accuracy of approximately 75% for the three travel modes studied were obtained. Even though the knowledge extracted from the trained ANN model has not yielded the indication of which of the underlying decision structures to the modal choice models was closer to the neural model, a compensating relation between the sex attribute and the household economic-related attribute in the decision of choosing the car mode in order to travel was evidenced in the trees resulting from the process of knowledge discovery. The results also suggest the lack of necessity of more than one input travel attribute concerning the displacement performed in a trip for the ANN modelling of the mode travel choice process in the studied context.

La reconversion des friches urbaines est unepriorité pour préserver les sols. Ce sont souvent des sitespollués ; ce qui engendre de nombreux obstacles pour lesreconvertir. Les bénéfices découlant de la reconversionsont sous-estimés tandis que les coûts sont surestimés parles opérateurs techniques et fonciers. L’impact de lastigmatisation du site amène les riverains à ne pass’approprier les nouveaux usages. Le choix de ces usagespeut être à l'origine de conflits entre les parties prenantes.Cette thèse s'intéresse à la reconversion des frichespolluées en tenant compte à la fois de lamultidimensionnalité des parties prenantes, de leurspréférences, et de leurs perceptions. Nous étudions lesobstacles et les leviers pouvant être mobilisés pourpromouvoir leur reconversion à partir d’une enquête auprès de 76 opérateurs techniques et fonciers dans unepremière partie.Dans la seconde, nous analysonsl’importance des stigmates associés aux friches polluéesauprès des riverains et futurs usagers. Une premièreenquête, menée au niveau national (803 observations)analyse leurs perceptions, représentations et préférencesvis-à-vis de ces sites. Ces dernières sont précisées à l’aided’une expérience à choix discrets (338 observations)administrée sur cinq communes impactées par ce type desite. Dans une troisième partie, nous appliquons unedémarche d’aide multicritère à la décision participativedans le cas d’une friche urbaine polluée. Elle identifie lesprojets les plus consensuels en regroupant l’ensemble desparties prenantes. Ils corresponde / Brownfield redevelopment is a key priority topreserve soils. Brownfields are often contaminated yet.Therefore, it creates numerous obstacles to reuse them.Firstly, brownfields redevelopment’s benefits areunderestimated whereas costs are overestimated bydevelopers. Secondly, brownfields are plagued with thestigma effect. This effect persists even after remediationprocess (e.g., individuals may not use facilities on aformer contaminated brownfield). Thirdly, new uses cancause conflicts between the stakeholders. As such, thisthesis deals with contaminated brownfieldredevelopment taking into account both themultidimensionality of stakeholders, their preferencesand their perceptions. developers. In a first part, we study barriers to brownfieldredevelopment and how to tackle them using a surveyamong 76 French developers.In a second part, weanalyse the importance of the stigma associated withcontaminated brownfields. A first survey (803observations), conducted at national level, investigatesindividuals’ perceptions, representations and preferencesregarding brownfield redevelopment. A second survey(338 observations), conducted among five municipalitiesimpacted by such sites, specifies their preferences usinga discrete choice experiment. In the third part, we applya participatory multicriteria decision aid. It determinesthe most consensual projects in the case of acontaminated site. They correspond to individuals’preferences that were previously analysed.

Um Strommärkte so zu konzipieren damit sie sowohl zur Verringerung der Nutzung fossiler Brennstoffe als auch zur Deckung des steigenden Energiebedarfes beitragen, ist Wissen über die Präferenzen der Konsumenten notwendig. Die vorliegende kumulative Dissertation untersucht Präferenzen für Elektrizitätsattribute von privaten Haushalten und trägt zu einem tieferen Verständnis dieser in unterschiedlichen Kontextsituationen bei. Der erste Artikel betrachtet statistische Methoden um die zwei am häufigsten angewandten Modelle – das Random Parameter Logit und das Latent Class Logit Modell – zu vergleichen. Der Artikel trägt dazu bei, den Prozess der Modellwahl zu verbessern und für die angewandte Forschung im Energiebereich anzupassen. Basierend auf den empirischen Ergebnissen des ersten Artikels untersucht der zweite Artikel die Präferenzen von privaten Haushalten in Hyderabad, Indien mit besonderem Fokus auf die physische Qualität der Energieversorgung. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf eine geringe Zahlungsbereitschaft der Konsumenten hin. Jedoch unterscheiden sich die Präferenzen der Haushalte. Die Artikel 3 und 4 basieren auf Datenerhebungen in Deutschland. Im dritten Artikel werden die Präferenzen privater Haushalte hinsichtlich der Organisationsform von Stromanbietern untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Kunden bereit sind mehr zu zahlen, wenn die Stromversorgung von Genossenschaften oder Stadtwerken übernommen wird. Der vierte Artikel betrachtet die Erfolgsfaktoren von Energiegenossenschaften in Deutschland. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Governance des Stromanbieters die Zahlungsbereitschaft für Strom beeinflussen. Insbesondere Genossenschaften werden den großen Privatunternehmen und Aktiengesellschaften vorgezogen. / In order to design electricity markets to simultaneously reduce the share of fossil fuels in energy production and meet the increasing demand for electricity, knowledge on consumer preferences is necessary. The goal of this cumulative dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of preferences of private households for electricity supply attributes in different contexts. In Paper 1 I review statistical methods to compare two frequently applied models, the random parameters logit and the latent class logit. The methods presented here can be readily used by other researchers and practitioners to better understand model performance which ultimately contributes to improving model choice in applied energy research. Based on the empirical findings of Paper 1, Paper 2 identifies preferences of private households in Hyderabad in India for electricity supply quality. The results indicate that willingness to pay for improvements are, on average, rather low. However, the preferences strongly vary between subjects. Papers 3 and 4 investigate preferences of German private households. In \textbf{Paper 3}, the respondents stated their preferences for the organization of the electricity distribution company under different renewable energy scenarios. It turned out that most people are willing to pay more for electricity supplied by municipally-owned companies and cooperatives. This additional willingness to pay increases disproportionally when the share of renewable energy is high. The paper identifies non-profit orientated distribution companies as potential drivers of the energy transition. Paper 4 investigates the determinants for the success of energy cooperatives in Germany. The results indicate that the governance of distribution companies impacts the choices of private households for electricity supply contracts. Especially, people preferred cooperative-like governance attributes.

Le problème de tarification qui nous intéresse ici consiste à maximiser le revenu généré par les usagers d'un réseau de transport. Pour se rendre à leurs destinations, les usagers font un choix de route et utilisent des arcs sur lesquels nous imposons des tarifs. Chaque route est caractérisée (aux yeux de l'usager) par sa "désutilité", une mesure de longueur généralisée tenant compte à la fois des tarifs et des autres coûts associés à son utilisation. Ce problème a surtout été abordé sous une modélisation déterministe de la demande selon laquelle seules des routes de désutilité minimale se voient attribuer une mesure positive de flot. Le modèle déterministe se prête bien à une résolution globale, mais pèche par manque de réalisme. Nous considérons ici une extension probabiliste de ce modèle, selon laquelle les usagers d'un réseau sont alloués aux routes d'après un modèle de choix discret logit. Bien que le problème de tarification qui en résulte est non linéaire et non convexe, il conserve néanmoins une forte composante combinatoire que nous exploitons à des fins algorithmiques. Notre contribution se répartit en trois articles. Dans le premier, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue théorique pour le cas avec une paire origine-destination. Nous développons une analyse de premier ordre qui exploite les propriétés analytiques de l'affectation logit et démontrons la validité de règles de simplification de la topologie du réseau qui permettent de réduire la dimension du problème sans en modifier la solution. Nous établissons ensuite l'unimodalité du problème pour une vaste gamme de topologies et nous généralisons certains de nos résultats au problème de la tarification d'une ligne de produits. Dans le deuxième article, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue numérique pour le cas avec plusieurs paires origine-destination. Nous développons des algorithmes qui exploitent l'information locale et la parenté des formulations probabilistes et déterministes. Un des résultats de notre analyse est l'obtention de bornes sur l'erreur commise par les modèles combinatoires dans l'approximation du revenu logit. Nos essais numériques montrent qu'une approximation combinatoire rudimentaire permet souvent d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Dans le troisième article, nous considérons l'extension du problème à une demande hétérogène. L'affectation de la demande y est donnée par un modèle de choix discret logit mixte où la sensibilité au prix d'un usager est aléatoire. Sous cette modélisation, l'expression du revenu n'est pas analytique et ne peut être évaluée de façon exacte. Cependant, nous démontrons que l'utilisation d'approximations non linéaires et combinatoires permet d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Finalement, nous en profitons pour illustrer la richesse du modèle, par le biais d'une interprétation économique, et examinons plus particulièrement la contribution au revenu des différents groupes d'usagers. / The network pricing problem consists in finding tolls to set on a subset of a network's arcs, so to maximize a revenue expression. A fixed demand of commuters, going from their origins to their destinations, is assumed. Each commuter chooses a path of minimal "disutility", a measure of discomfort associated with the use of a path and which takes into account fixed costs and tolls. A deterministic modelling of commuter behaviour is mostly found in the literature, according to which positive flow is only assigned to \og shortest\fg\: paths. Even though the determinist pricing model is amenable to global optimization by the use of enumeration techniques, it has often been criticized for its lack of realism. In this thesis, we consider a probabilistic extension of this model involving a logit dicrete choice model. This more realistic model is non-linear and non-concave, but still possesses strong combinatorial features. Our analysis spans three separate articles. In the first we tackle the problem from a theoretical perspective for the case of a single origin-destination pair and develop a first order analysis that exploits the logit assignment analytical properties. We show the validity of simplification rules to the network topology which yield a reduction in the problem dimensionality. This enables us to establish the problem's unimodality for a wide class of topologies. We also establish a parallel with the product-line pricing problem, for which we generalize some of our results. In our second article, we address the problem from a numerical point of view for the case where multiple origin-destination pairs are present. We work out algorithms that exploit both local information and the pricing problem specific combinatorial features. We provide theoretical results which put in perspective the deterministic and probabilistic models, as well as numerical evidence according to which a very simple combinatorial approximation can lead to the best solutions. Also, our experiments clearly indicate that under any reasonable setting, the logit pricing problem is much smoother, and admits less optima then its deterministic counterpart. The third article is concerned with an extension to an heterogeneous demand resulting from a mixed-logit discrete choice model. Commuter price sensitivity is assumed random and the corresponding revenue expression admits no closed form expression. We devise nonlinear and combinatorial approximation schemes for its evaluation and optimization, which allow us to obtain quasi-optimal solutions. Numerical experiments here indicate that the most realistic model yields the best solution, independently of how well the model can actually be solved. We finally illustrate how the output of the model can be used for economic purposes by evaluating the contributions to the revenue of various commuter groups.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CARDOSO_Diego_2013.pdf: 1706794 bytes, checksum: 52ad0ebf4915ad86f6ac9a9529176b01 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-20 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The goal of competition policy, also known as antitrust policy, is promoting the welfare and economic efficiency by preserving fair competition in markets. Merger control is one of the main responsibilities of antitrust institutions. Prohibitions and restrictions of merger operations affect market structures, thus making these decisions relevant to economic agents. This Master's thesis analyzes the decisions made by Brazilian antitrust institutions regarding merger processes. Data was collected from public documents issued from 2004 to 2011. Bivariate analysis, discrete choice models and classification decision trees show that these merger control decisions are consistent with Brazilian antitrust law. Consistent competition policy reduces uncertainty, aligns expectations and increases the efficiency of antitrust law enforcement. Therefore, this research contributes to better understanding Brazilian competition policy related to merger control and its decision drivers. / As políticas de defesa da concorrência, ou políticas antitruste, visam ao maior bem-estar social por meio da manutenção de ambientes concorrenciais que promovam a eficiência econômica. No Brasil, os órgãos que compõem o Sistema Brasileiro de Defesa da Concorrência são os responsáveis pelas decisões sobre os agentes econômicos a fim de atingir os objetivos das políticas antitruste. Nesse âmbito, as decisões que influenciam a estrutura de mercados por meio das restrições e vetos a processos como fusões e aquisições de empresas - os julgamentos de Atos de Concentração - apresentam elevada relevância. Este trabalho realiza uma avaliação das decisões do Sistema Brasileiro de Defesa da Concorrência relativas aos Atos de Concentração. Para tal, foram coletados dados a partir dos documentos públicos emitidos pelos órgãos antitruste no período entre 2004 e 2011. Por meio da aplicação de modelos de regressão de escolha discreta e árvores de decisão induzidas, verificou-se que tais decisões são consistentes com as regras antitruste brasileiras. A consistência com regras estabelecidas possibilita uma maior eficiência na aplicação das políticas de defesa da concorrência, uma vez que reduz as incertezas dos agentes econômicos, alinha as expectativas e facilita a condução dos processos. Nesse sentido, esta investigação contribui para uma melhor compreensão dos fatores que influenciam as decisões dos órgãos brasileiros de defesa da concorrência, oferecendo também indicativos que auxiliam na verificação da eficiência da aplicação de tais políticas.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2125.pdf: 7879891 bytes, checksum: e80ceb14a2ac63501f1ee48b24e98926 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-08-26 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The city s transportation system has been a big problem in urban planning, due to constant increasing of vehicles fleet, absence of road network monitoring, air pollution, and conflicts between pedestrian and car. Therefore the development of alternatives that encourage the sustainable travel modes realization, as non-motorized modes and public transportation becomes necessary, reducing, consequently, the number of trips by car. In order to assist urban planning process on the sustainable transportation modes preference and to contribute to better urban spaces for citizens, the objective of this study is to analyze the existent relations between urban form of six traffic zones in Uberlândia city, Minas Gerais State and its urban transportation system, defining how physical features of a certain region influences people traveling behavior. Urban form variables defined as important to this study and analyzed on traffic zones level were: urban density; diversity of land use; quality of favorable places to nonmotorized transportation; availability of public transportation; routes design and connectivity; city topography. To determine the urban form influence on travel behavior different discreet choice models, multinomial logit type, were calibrated. First of all, the models were calibrated using only travelers socio-economic variables and then variables that characterize urban form were included. Results indicated that urban form variables don't have significant influence on the modal choice process in trips in the city, not being, therefore, determinant to define that transport mode must be used. Socio-economic variables, in special, the income and the trip distance were the most determinative factors for the transport mode choice. / O sistema de transporte das cidades tem se apresentado como uma grande fonte de problemas frente ao processo de planejamento urbano, devido ao crescente aumento da frota de veículos, o não acompanhamento da malha viária, a poluição do ar, e os conflitos entre pedestres e automóveis. Diante disso, se faz necessário o desenvolvimento de alternativas que incentivem a realização de viagens por modos sustentáveis, como os modos não motorizados e o transporte coletivo, diminuindo de forma conseqüente o número de viagens realizadas por automóvel. No intuito de auxiliar no processo de planejamento urbano a fim de privilegiar os modos de transporte sustentáveis e contribuir para o provimento de espaços urbanos melhores aos cidadãos, este estudo tem o objetivo de analisar as relações existentes entre a forma urbana de seis zonas de tráfego da cidade de Uberlândia/MG, e o seu sistema de transporte urbano, buscando definir como as características físicas de uma determinada região influenciam no comportamento de viagem das pessoas. As variáveis da forma urbana definidas como importantes para este estudo e analisadas em nível de zonas de tráfego foram: densidade urbana; diversidade de usos do solo; qualidade dos espaços que favoreçam o transporte não motorizado; disponibilidade de transporte coletivo; desenho e conectividade das vias; e topografia da cidade. Para determinar o grau de influência da forma urbana sobre o comportamento de viagem foram calibrados diversos modelos de escolha discreta do tipo logit multinomial. Primeiro foram calibrados modelos utilizando apenas as variáveis sócio-econômicas dos viajantes e depois se passou a incluir as variáveis que caracterizam a forma urbana. Os resultados obtidos indicaram que as variáveis da forma urbana não têm influência significativa no processo de escolha modal nas viagens realizadas dentro na cidade, não sendo determinantes para definição do modo de transporte a ser usado. As variáveis sócio-econômicas, em especial a renda, e o comprimento das viagens se mostraram como os fatores mais determinantes para a escolha do modo de transporte.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a demanda potencial para um sistema de compartilhamento de bicicletas pedelecs no campus da USP de São Carlos, com foco nos deslocamentos de estudantes entre as duas áreas do campus. Para tanto, foi elaborado um conjunto de procedimentos, que constituem duas etapas: caracterização do público-alvo e análise da demanda potencial pelas bicicletas pedelecs compartilhadas. Na primeira etapa foi aplicado um questionário, elaborado com a técnica de preferência declarada, para verificar as preferências dos usuários em relação às pedelecs compartilhadas e ao ônibus operado pela USP. Os resultados desta consulta, que envolveu variáveis de condições meteorológicas, situação de ciclovias/ciclofaixas entre as áreas do campus e lotação do ponto de ônibus USP, foram posteriormente utilizados para calibrar um modelo logit e treinar uma Rede Neural Artificial (RNA). Na segunda etapa foi elaborada uma planilha eletrônica com os dados obtidos na coleta, a fim de analisar as probabilidades de escolha da pedelec (ao invés do ônibus USP). Nesta planilha também foram utilizados dados do histórico meteorológico de São Carlos no período entre 2011 e 2015. Alguns dos resultados obtidos são destacados na sequência. A probabilidade de escolha das pedelecs é, em média, três vezes maior quando existem ciclovias/ciclofaixas (em relação à ausência da referida infraestrutura cicloviária). A ocupação do ponto de ônibus USP também é impactante, pois as probabilidades de uso da bicicleta pedelec praticamente dobram quando o ponto está cheio. No caso da meteorologia, foi constatado que as maiores probabilidades ocorrem no Outono e no Inverno, ou seja, nas épocas em que se concentram os dias mais secos e com menores temperaturas. Para o período letivo de 2011 a 2015, considerando a situação atual (isto é, sem ciclovias/ciclofaixas entre as áreas), os valores de probabilidade de uso da pedelec correspondem a 9% com o ponto vazio e 19% com o ponto cheio. Se houvesse ciclovias/ciclofaixas, a probabilidade seria de até 54%. Desse modo, a estratégia de análise desenvolvida conceitualmente, bem como implantada em planilha eletrônica, se constitui em importante ferramenta de auxílio para a condução da política de transportes que a Prefeitura do campus irá adotar para os anos futuros. Além disso, evidencia uma possível demanda potencial para um sistema com pedelecs compartilhadas. / The objective of this study was to analyze the potential demand for a pedelec sharing system at the São Carlos campus of the University of São Paulo (USP), aiming at the displacements of students between the two campus Areas. The set of procedures developed to reach the objective has involved two steps: characterization of the target audience and analysis of the potential demand for shared pedelecs. The first step was accomplished with a questionnaire designed with a stated preference approach for identifying users\' preferences regarding shared pedelecs and the bus system operated by the university. The survey results, which involved variables of weather conditions, existence of bike paths/bike lanes between the campus Areas, and occupancy rates at the USP bus stop, were subsequently used to calibrate a logit model and to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The survey data were also used in the second step of the process, in which an electronic spreadsheet was created to analyze the probabilities of choosing the pedelec alternative (instead of the bus route operated by university). The spreadsheet was also fed with meteorological data of São Carlos in the period between 2011 and 2015. Some of the obtained outcomes are highlighted in the sequence. The probability of a pedelec being chosen is almost three times higher if bike paths/bike lanes do exist than if they do not exist. The occupancy rates of the bus stop are also particularly relevant. The probability of someone choosing a pedelec nearly doubles when the bus stop is crowded. Regarding the weather conditions, the highest probabilities are observed in the Fall and Winter seasons, i. e. in the driest and coldest days. For the entire academic period comprised between 2011 and 2015, the probabilities range from 9% (empty bus stop) to 19% (full bus stop), considering the current situation (i. e. no cycleways connect the two campus Areas). In the presence of this cycling infrastructure, however, the probability goes up to 54%. Thus, the strategy of analysis conceptually developed, and made available through an electronic spreadsheet, may be an important support tool for the implementation of transport policies by the campus administration. In addition, it highlights a likely potential demand for a system of shared pedelecs.

La présente thèse de doctorat a pour objectif d'examiner la place et l'importance de l'accessibilité dans les modèles de choix de localisation des ménages et des entreprises. Ces modèles sont deux éléments clés de la conception et la construction des modèles d'interaction transport – usages du sol. Il s’agit, plus précisément, d’analyser l’effet de divers choix méthodologiques d’un point de vue théorique et empirique afin de donner des réponses à des interrogations tout aussi théoriques, méthodologiques, empiriques et politiques. Pour y répondre, quatre articles de recherche constituent le travail principal de la thèse. Les quatre travaux produits ont pour objet l’étude de l’aire urbaine lyonnaise et utilisant des modèles de choix discrets pour expliquer les choix de localisation.Dans le premier article, l’objectif est d’analyser l’effet de la mesure d’accessibilité sur les résultats du modèle de choix de localisation résidentielle. Alors que l'accessibilité a toujours été importante au niveau théorique, certains travaux relativisent son importance au niveau empirique, considérant que d'autres attribues de localisation sont plus influentes. Cet article analyse si différentes méthodes de mesure de l'accessibilité peuvent conduire à des résultats divergents. La conclusion principale estque l'accessibilité est une variable indispensable pour les modèles de choix localisation résidentielle et ce quelle que soit la mesure. Sans la variable de l’accessibilité, le modèle donne des résultats incohérents.Dans le deuxième article, l’objectif est d’analyser les différences de préférences en matière d’accessibilité entre les entreprises nouvellement créées et les entreprises qui se relocalisent. L'accessibilité est l'un des facteurs les plus importants du choix de localisation d’une entreprise. Cependant, même si cela semble intuitif, les travaux analysant les différences entre les créations et les relocalisations sont peu nombreux. En utilisant des données pour huit secteurs d’activités économiques et en confrontant les créations aux relocalisations, les résultats démontrent que l’effet de l’accessibilité diffère d’un secteur économique à l’autre. Cette différence dépend du type d’activité économique du secteur mais aussi du type d’accessibilité.Dans le troisième article, l’objectif est d’évaluer la différence d’impact de l’accessibilité sur les choix de localisation des entreprises du secteur des services aux entreprises. En distinguant les services entre Front Office et Back Office selon leur fonction dans un modèle de choix de localisation, les résultats démontrent que l'effet de l'accessibilité diffère d'un sous-secteur économique à l'autre. Dans le quatrième papier, l'objectif est d'analyser l'évolution temporelle des préférences en matièred'accessibilité des choix résidentiels. De plus en plus de ménages choisissent d’acheter une résidence en banlieue, profitant ainsi de l’augmentation de l’accessibilité. En opposition, les jeunes ménages, appelés aussi «millennials», choisissent de louer dans les zones centrales. Distinguant les locataires des propriétaires, l'analyse des élasticités de périodes 1999, 2006 et 2013 confirme l'intuition initiale qui est que les locataires sont plus sensibles à l'accessibilité à l'emploi. Plus important encore, lapréférence des locataires évolue et croit au cours de la période analysée, alors que celle des propriétaires évolue de façon inverse. Nous suggérons aux planificateurs et aux concepteurs de modèles d’intégrer la dynamique temporelle dans leurs modèles afin d'anticiper au mieux les tendances futures. / This PhD thesis has as objective to examine the place and the importance of accessibility in location choice models of households and firms, two key construction elements of Land-Use Transport Interaction models. More specifically, the aim is to analyse the effect of various methodological choices from a theoretical and empirical point of view in order to give some answers to theoretical, methodological, empirical and policy issues. Having as a case study the urban area of Lyon and using discrete models to explain the location choices of households and firms, four research papers comprise the main work of this dissertation.In the first paper, the objective was to analyse the effect of the accessibility measure on the results of residential location choice model. While accessibility has always been important at theoretical level, at empirical level, some works questioned its importance, considering other location characteristics as more influential. This paper examines whether different accessibility measurement methods can lead to divergent results. The conclusion is that accessibility is an indispensable variable for residential location choice models and the conclusion remains the same whatever is the measure. Without accessibility, the model gives inconsistent results. Complex accessibility measures give better results, especially for predictions, but simple measures are also relevant for residential location choices modelling.In the second paper, the objective was to analyse the differences of accessibility preferences between new and relocating firms. Accessibility is one of the most important attributes of a location choice of an economic establishment. However, even if it seems intuitive, works analysing any differences between creations and relocations are scarce. Using data from eighteconomic sectors and comparing creations to relocations, the results demonstrate that the effect of accessibility differs between in the same economic sector.In the third paper, the objective was to evaluate the difference of the accessibility impact on the location choices of firms of the business services sector. Distinguishing between Front Office and Back Office business services in a location choice model, the results demonstrate that the effect of accessibility differs between economic subsectors.In the fourth paper, the objective was to analyse the temporal evolution of the preferences for accessibility for residential choices. More and more people choose to buy a residence at the suburbs taking advantage of the accessibility increase. At the same time, young households, the so called millennials, choose to rent in central areas. Distinguishing between renters andowners, the analysis of the elasticities for 1999, 2006 and 2013 confirm the initial intuition. Renters were always more sensitive to accessibility to employment. More importantly, renters show an increasing preference for accessibility during the analysis period, while the owners the opposite. We suggest that planners and model developers should integrate temporal dynamics into their models in order to anticipate better future tendencies.

La modélisation du choix d'itinéraire est un sujet de recherche bien étudié avec des implications, par exemple, pour la planification urbaine et l'analyse des flux d'équilibre du trafic. En raison de l'ampleur des effets que ces problèmes peuvent avoir sur les communautés, il n'est pas surprenant que plusieurs domaines de recherche aient tenté de résoudre le même problème. Les défis viennent cependant de la taille des réseaux eux-mêmes, car les grandes villes peuvent avoir des dizaines de milliers de segments de routes reliés par des dizaines de milliers d'intersections. Ainsi, les approches discutées dans cette thèse se concentreront sur la comparaison des performances entre des modèles de deux domaines différents, l'économétrie et l'apprentissage par renforcement inverse (IRL). Tout d'abord, nous fournissons des informations sur le sujet pour que des chercheurs d'un domaine puissent se familiariser avec l'autre domaine. Dans un deuxième temps, nous décrivons les algorithmes utilisés avec une notation commune, ce qui facilite la compréhension entre les domaines. Enfin, nous comparons les performances des modèles sur des ensembles de données du monde réel, à savoir un ensemble de données couvrant des choix d’itinéraire de cyclistes collectés dans un réseau avec 42 000 liens. Nous rapportons nos résultats pour les deux modèles de l'économétrie que nous discutons, mais nous n'avons pas pu générer les mêmes résultats pour les deux modèles IRL. Cela était principalement dû aux instabilités numériques que nous avons rencontrées avec le code que nous avions modifié pour fonctionner avec nos données. Nous proposons une discussion de ces difficultés parallèlement à la communication de nos résultats. / Route choice modeling is a well-studied topic of research with implications, for example, for city planning and traffic equilibrium flow analysis. Due to the scale of effects these problems can have on communities, it is no surprise that diverse fields have attempted solutions to the same problem. The challenges, however, come with the size of networks themselves, as large cities may have tens of thousands of road segments connected by tens of thousands of intersections. Thus, the approaches discussed in this thesis will be focusing on the performance comparison between models from two different fields, econometrics and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). First, we provide background on the topic to introduce researchers from one field to become acquainted with the other. Secondly, we describe the algorithms used with a common notation to facilitate this building of understanding between the fields. Lastly, we aim to compare the performance of the models on real-world datasets, namely covering bike route choices collected in a network of 42,000 links. We report our results for the two models from econometrics that we discuss, but were unable to generate the same results for the two IRL models. This was primarily due to numerical instabilities we encountered with the code we had modified to work with our data. We provide a discussion of these difficulties alongside the reporting of our results.