Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Louden) is the most widespread pine in North America and the single most abundant tree species in British Columbia (BC). Its vast distribution, diversity and economic value make it an important species for timber harvest and subsequent reforestation. Climate change raises serious concerns over the adaptability and effective management of BC’s future forests. The majority of lodgepole pine seedlings requested for replanting are produced from seed obtained from wild stands, but the relationship between climate variation and the seed production of natural populations has yet to be assessed. The purpose of this study is to determine if variation in P. contorta seed yield is related to the climate of BC. Historical cone collection data were obtained from archived records of 1948 seedlots in 22 different natural stand seed planning zones (SPZs) of BC. Collections were made between 1963 and 2013 and seed yield (kg fresh seed/hL cone) was determined for each seedlot. First, natural variation in seed production of lodgepole pine was examined in 18 different SPZs. The Nass Skeena Transition (NST) represents a unique intersection between continental and maritime ecosystems and was found to have a significantly higher mean seed yield compared to all other zones, with the exception of Hudson Hope (HH). However, variance in seed yield for NST was found to be an order of magnitude higher than that of other SPZs, indicating that seed production in this region is exceptionally variable. These findings provide a valuable geographic baseline for the reproductive fitness of lodgepole pine, suggesting that climate adaptation and mitigation strategies for some areas of the province may need to be region-specific. In addition, the relationship between climate variation and the seed production of P. contorta in BC was evaluated. The climate of each region was described using dynamically-downscaled Global Circulation Model (GCM) and reanalysis climate output from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). Annual, winter, and summer means were explored for each of the climate variables of interest: total precipitation (mm) and surface air temperature (°C). Temporal correlations between the mean annual seed yield anomaly and the anomaly of both climate variables were significant under a variety of climate schemes in a number of SPZs. Significant overall trends in climate variables were also captured using GCM-driven CRCM output. While these two analyses independently highlighted significant relationships between seed yield and climate, their joint implications were unclear. Shifts in the CRCM boundary conditions revealed that the results lacked robustness during the historical period, inhibiting the investigation of future projections. Ambiguous age ranges for each cone collection and temporal restrictions of the seed collection data may be partially responsible for these inconclusive results. Results from the first half of this thesis suggest that, with few exceptions, seed production is relatively stable across SPZs spanning a wide range of climate regimes. Thus, the investigation of the relationship between reproductive fitness and climate may be complicated by the extraordinary adaptability of lodgepole pine and the high genetic variation in natural populations. / Graduate

This thesis deals with the perception of climate change issue and adaptive capacity of organic farming systems in the Czech Republic. The aim of this thesis it to investigate organic farmers' attitudes toward climate change and their willingness to adopt adaptation practices. The method used in this thesis is based on questionnaires that were distributed among organic farmers in the period of January-March 2015; 52 questionnaires were subsequently analysed. The results indicate that the majority of organic farmers surveyed believed that the global climate change is occurring, expected negative climate change effects and observed higher frequency of extreme weather events. Most of the respondents also acknowledge the importance of adaptation practices and their own responsibility in adaptation. The statistical analysis revealed that both the belief about climate change and perception of associated threats may serve as predictors of the willingness to implement adaptation measures.

En este estudio se analizan los efectos de las condiciones oceanográficas sobre la captura agregada de las tres principales especies de túnidos tropicales considerando las dos estrategias de pesca principales de la flota española de cerco, es decir, la pesca sobre dispositivo artificiales de agregación de peces (FADs) y banco libre (FSC). Además, para cada estrategia de pesca, se investiga el desplazamiento de la agregación de captura bajo los efectos del cambio climático utilizando la captura de atún Katsuwonus pelamis como indicador biológico, y se discuten las implicaciones sociales y económicas del impacto climático sobre los países costeros alrededor del Canal de Mozambique. El atún Katsuwonus pelamis es el recurso pesquero ecológico más importante que sustenta las necesidades sociales y económicas de los países costeros del MZC y, por tanto, las predicciones de puntos críticos para mediados y finales de siglo bajo diferentes escenarios de cambio climático son resultados que deben ser considerados en los planes de conservación y gestión de este recurso. Además, se analizaron las tendencias en las capturas de atún de las flotas industrial y artesanal y el impacto de su interacción. El objetivo general de esta investigación de tesis es mejorar nuestro conocimiento sobre los factores clave que impulsan la dinámica de las pesquerías de túnidos tropicales en el MZC, bajo un contexto que combina la acción e interacción de la flota de cerco industrial y la pesca a pequeña escala. Para el desarrollo del objetivo general, se han definido y resumido objetivos específicos de la siguiente manera: (i) investigar las relaciones entre los factores ambientales y la acumulación de cardúmenes de túnidos tropicales en hábitats marinos capturados por la flota Española de cerco sobre FADs o sobre FSC en el Canal de Mozambique; (ii) investigar la dinámica temporal y predecir los hábitats espaciales para la agregación de cardúmenes de túnidos o puntos críticos para la pesca en relación con sus preferencia ambientales;, (iii) investigar los cambios de distribución y agregación del Katsuwonus pelamis frente a los escenarios futuros de concentraciones representativas (RCP) de cambios climáticos para 2050 y 2100. (iv) discutir los cambios en las tasas de captura y socioeconómicos que afectan a las comunidades pesqueras considerando la incertidumbre asociada al cambio climático en el Canal de Mozambique; (v) describir las interacciones socioecológicas y socioeconómicas entre la pesca industrial y los sectores de la pesca en pequeña escala en las aguas costeras, en base a la información disponible de las pesquerías de Mozambique; (vi) explorar, desde el punto de vista ecológico, el efecto que ejercen la flota industrial en las poblaciones objetivo, así como el impacto socioeconómico en la pesca a pequeña escala, siendo esta, además, más vulnerable al cambio climático a lo largo de la costa de Mozambique. Los datos científicos utilizados en el análisis de capturas y esfuerzo de la flota española de cerco en el área del Canal de Mozambique se obtuvieron de las bases de datos del Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO) para el período de Febrero de 2003 a Junio de 2013 a partir de los cuadernos de pesca de la flota de cerco española, una vez corregida la composición específica de las capturas a partir de los datos detallados de la flota y el muestreo de puertos. Los datos de captura y esfuerzo de los cuadernos de pesca contienen información de los lances de pesca para FADs y FSC. Paralelamente a los datos de pesca, los datos ambientales para la misma subárea del MZC y el mismo periodo de tiempo se obtuvieron del consorcio MyOcean-Copernicus EU (marine.copernicus.eu) en formato netCDF. Finalmente, las conclusiones de estas tres etapas de investigación fueron las siguientes: (i) Entre las condiciones oceanográficas que determinaban los puntos críticos de captura para ambos tipos de pesca de cerco (FSC y FADs) en el canal de MZC se encontraban la temperatura de la superficie del mar y su variabilidad, la productividad, la altura de la superficie del mar y la las interacciones de las variables espaciales y temporales. Sin embargo, las corrientes geostróficas mostraron un efecto significativo solo para la acumulación de captura pescable en los FADs. El efecto dinámico de las variables oceanográficas ambientales sobre la acumulación de captura de túnidos tropicales a lo largo del Canal de Mozambique varía según el modo de pesca FAD y FSC. Los modelos predijeron hábitats preferidos para peces asociados con FADs entre 10ºS y 18ºS, con el núcleo, en general, en la costa noroeste de Madagascar. Las predicciones para el hábitat preferido en FSC muestran que el núcleo se encuentra principalmente en la parte norte del Canal de Mozambique y también cerca de la costa de Mozambique entre las latitudes 10ºS a 16ºS. El modelo predijo un caladero de pesca parcialmente superpuesto entre los FADs y la el FSC, a pesar de la diferencia en las variables oceanográficas seleccionadas por cada modelo aditivo generalizado para establecer hábitats de pesca preferidos a lo largo del canal de Mozambique.(ii) En relación de la captura de K. pelamis bajo el escenario climático, los hallazgos sugieren que las variables biofísicas afectan la distribución de las capturas de barrilete en el MZC y que la distribución de las especies se verá afectada por el cambio climático, particularmente en la parte norte, con posibles implicaciones en las comunidades pesqueras locales e internacionales. El modelo proyectó la distribución del K. pelamis e bajo escenarios de cambio climático optimista (RCP2.6) y pesimista (RCP8.5). El escenario optimista proyectaba que las capturas de K. pelamis se desplazarían hacia la parte sur del Canal de Mozambique, entre las latitudes 19ºS y 25ºS, para el 2050, y que el cambio de distribución sería menor o sin cambios entre 2050 y 2100. En el peor de los casos (RCP8.5), los caladeros potenciales de pesca se proyectaron en latitudes >20ºS para 2050, y se pronosticó que probablemente se producirían anomalías positivas en latitudes <20ºS entre 2050 y 2100. Además, para fines del siglo XXI, se observan signos de una alta distribución de las capturas. se espera fuera del MZC en latitudes >25ºS hacia las regiones templadas. Dado que se prevé que el cambio climático afectará la pesca de barrilete en el MZC, puede generar desafíos socioeconómicos para las comunidades pesqueras. Los estados costeros en el área de MZC deben fortalecer la gobernanza y promover políticas para construir resiliencia y aumentar la capacidad de adaptación de las pesquerías locales, nacionales y regionales para reducir su vulnerabilidad a los impactos climáticos. (iii) Las capturas nominales de atún han ido disminuyendo con el tiempo en Mozambique, independientemente de si los peces son capturados por flotas industriales o pescadores en pequeña escala. La competencia entre las flotas industriales y los pescadores en pequeña escala para maximizar las capturas y los beneficios de las especies de túnidos de alto valor comercial, como el rabil, el listado y el patudo hayan contribuido, muy probablemente, a generar esta tendencia decreciente, ya que los mismos stocks se capturan en diferentes regiones del océano Índico occidental (costa y alta mar) y por todo tipo de artes durante la migración estacional y espacial de las tres especies de túnidos tropicales. La existencia de tal interacción entre flotas industriales y pescadores locales a pequeña escala y la tendencia decreciente de los stocks tiene mayores consecuencias sobre los pescadores locales dada su mayor vulnerabilidad. Por lo tanto, es importante fortalecer la aplicación de la separación legal ya existente de las áreas de extracción entre la pesca artesanal e industrial. Es importante evitar la explotación excesiva del atún en las aguas nacionales de Mozambique y al mismo tiempo establecer acuerdos de pesca que apoyen el desarrollo socioeconómico del país. Los futuros acuerdos deberían ser socialmente justos, viable ecológicamente y estar respaldados por un buen asesoramiento de gestión sobre la sostenibilidad de las tasas de explotación.

This thesis consists of three chapters, each dealing with a different aspect of the impact of climate change on agriculture: the analysis of past evidence, the possible new solutions and the anticipation of future problems. The topics chosen are different but complementary and reflect the complex and multifaceted impact of this phenomenon on agriculture. This work uses global spatial data and information from the literature, combines weather forecast with a crop model, and uses an economic model coupled with robust econometric estimation approaches. The findings indicate that major crop yields in tropical and subtropical regions will likely suffer adverse effects, while temperate and continental areas, historically less favourable for agriculture, may experience mainly positive impacts. Under a medium development scenario, global crop production is projected to remain largely unaffected, masking a compensatory mechanism between tropical and temperate regions. Adaptation covers a significant positive role, and short- and medium-range weather forecasting can be an important and affordable tool for farmers to adapt their agricultural practices, if they know how to use it. The adoption of such meteorological information can enable rural households in developing countries to increase yields of staple crops, although the potential contribution of it may be hampered by social and economic barriers. However, adaptation in agriculture can have negative externalities, potentially creating a vicious circle, and the livestock sector is particularly vulnerable. Indeed, changing climate conditions may induce farmers to adjust the distribution of grazing livestock per unit of land in order to maximise profits. Temperate and continental countries may increase the number of grazing livestock per unit of land as climatic conditions improve for agricultural purposes, thereby increasing carbon dioxide emissions. On the other hand, tropical areas, mainly populated by developing countries, will see a deterioration of agricultural conditions and less livestock can be raised on rangelands and pasturelands. Once again, countries with pressing agricultural productivity needs bear a disproportionate burden of climate change effects, exacerbating already precarious living conditions. Conversely, northern countries, primarily developed, are likely to experience more beneficial effects.

Warming climate will affect communities across Canada. Many of these communities do not have the adaptive capacity to deal with climate change related challenges. Indigenous communities are believed to be disproportionally affected by climate change because of the lack of adequate infrastructure, and historical and political obstacles that limit their overall adaptive capacity. Therefore, climate change data and information are required to understand the full extent to which these communities are exposed to climate risks. Many past studies in the literature have outlined the effects of climate change at large spatial scales. While these studies are important for understanding the broad effects of climate change, they are not useful for community or local adaptation planning. Ultimately, climate change impacts will be felt at a local level. Hence, high resolution climate change impact studies are urgently needed to capture the realities of these effects in greater detail and to provide relevant data and information at local and community levels, in particular for marginalized and Indigenous communities. Using observed meteorological and hydrologic data, high-resolution downscaled future climate simulations, and a process-based hydrologic model, this thesis explored the physical impacts of climate change on the Six Nations of the Grand River (Six Nations) reserve, which is the largest (by population) Indigenous community in Canada and the seventh largest in the United States and Canada. Changing climate conditions and extreme climate trends in the Six Nations reserve were explored using the widely used ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme climate indices. Results indicated a warming and wetting trend in Six Nations, with the temperature rising by 3°C to 6°C by the end of the century and changes in seasonal precipitation. Extreme high temperature and precipitation indices will increase, causing potential human health impacts and increased flooding hazards for the community. A warming climate directly impacts the hydrological cycle and patterns. Analysis conducted using the Coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) found that the McKenzie Creek - an important water provider for Six Nations - is sensitive to climate change due to its reliance on precipitation. Furthermore, study results showed that winter precipitation and streamflow are projected to increase, and snowpack water content is expected to decrease. These changes in streamflow will cause earlier winter-spring flooding events. Furthermore, agricultural production may be affected by reduced spring soil moisture recharge. Additionally, GSFLOW projected little to no change in late spring and summer streamflow which resulted in low water availability (Ptot-ET) during the growing season. Water availability was further examined by assessing future Blue Water (BW) and Green Water (GW) scarcity in the McKenzie Creek watershed. The water footprint method was used to calculate BW and GW scarcity. Study results showed that under current levels of water usage, BW scarcity would be “low” in the future. However, BW scarcity would increase to “significant” levels in the future, if water users started to withdraw more water for consumption, assuming maximum water withdrawal allocation (i.e., 0.47 m3s-1). This level of BW scarcity has the potential to cause ecological degradation and exacerbate water quality issues in the McKenzie Creek watershed. GW scarcity showed a steadily increasing trend throughout the 21st century due to climate warming. Spatial analysis showed that the western portion of the McKenzie Creek watershed may experience slightly higher levels of GW water scarcity in the future because of the lower water holding capacity of the soil. This may cause water users to withdraw more BW resources in western upstream areas, thereby decreasing BW available for downstream communities, including the Six Nations. Such disparity in water use among Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities may affect community relationships and social cohesion in the area. This thesis provides decision makers in Six Nations and more broadly in the McKenzie Creek watershed area with relevant climate change impact data and information that can be used in future climate change adaptation planning, disaster risk mitigation, and water resources management. Moreover, the results highlight the need for a comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment of the Six Nations. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Environmental Design and Planning Program / Lee R. Skabelund / Despite the growing number of urban adaptation planning initiatives to climate change hazards, there exist significant barriers related to implementation uncertainties that hinder translation of adaptation plans into actions, resulting in a widely recognized ‘planning-implementation gap’ across scales and regions. Bridging the planning-implementation gap will require overcoming implementation uncertainties by better understanding the relationships between the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and emerging adaptation options across spatial scales. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model published by Rounsevell, Dawson, and Harrison in 2010 provided a robust framework for identifying the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and the emerging adaptation options related to risk of changing climate and flooding events in the urban context. Drawing on evidence from the systematic review of 121 adaptation planning case studies across North America, this research derived qualitative and quantitative data, which was subsequently analyzed using binary logistic regression to generate objective and generalizable findings. The findings of binary logistic regression models suggest that the choice of specific adaptation options (namely enhancing adaptive capacity; management and conservation; and improving urban infrastructure, planning, and development) may be predicted based on the assessment of primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives (namely, anticipation of economic benefits; perceived threats to management and conservation of urban natural resources; support of human and social systems; and improvement of policy and regulations) in relation to the risk of changing climate and urban flooding events. This does not imply that other primary factors (namely information and knowledge; perceived funding and economic opportunities; evidence of climate change effects; and general concerns) have no or insignificant relationships with the selection of adaptation options, only that the review did not find evidence to support such claims. These study findings may offer useful guidance to the design and further development of planning and decision support tools that could be used for assessment of adaptation plans and selection of robust adaptation options that take account of uncertainties surrounding implementation of effective climate adaptation actions. Study findings can also inform evidence-based policy and investment decision making, especially in regions where urban adaptation plans are weak or absent.

The thesis aims at corporate adaptation to climate change impacts in the logistics and transportation industry, especially for the model region Dresden. The paper employs two analyses. The first part deals with a review of the current literature within the topic. 20 references are identified and analysed with a data extraction form. More general adaptation measures are identified in the current literature which can be implemented in the corporate strategy. Crucial effects on company’s operation and its profit have flooding and sea level rise. In comparison adaptation measures, which are identified within five interviews of transportation providers in the model region Dresden, are of technological nature. The interviewed companies adapted significantly to weather extremes in the past. It is identified that heavy precipitation like rain and snow lead to crucial negative impacts to their operations which cause lost profit and customer dissatisfaction in long periods of time. On the other hand these weather conditions may have positive effects in short periods of time. Region-specific analyses in climate change impacts and the implementation of potential adaptation measures for logistics and transportation companies is still in a stage of infancy. Further research is needed on more region-specific analyses and on logistics companies in the model region Dresden as only five of them analysed in this thesis.

The thesis aims at corporate adaptation to climate change impacts in the logistics and transportation industry, especially for the model region Dresden. The paper employs two analyses. The first part deals with a review of the current literature within the topic. 20 references are identified and analysed with a data extraction form. More general adaptation measures are identified in the current literature which can be implemented in the corporate strategy. Crucial effects on company’s operation and its profit have flooding and sea level rise. In comparison adaptation measures, which are identified within five interviews of transportation providers in the model region Dresden, are of technological nature. The interviewed companies adapted significantly to weather extremes in the past. It is identified that heavy precipitation like rain and snow lead to crucial negative impacts to their operations which cause lost profit and customer dissatisfaction in long periods of time. On the other hand these weather conditions may have positive effects in short periods of time. Region-specific analyses in climate change impacts and the implementation of potential adaptation measures for logistics and transportation companies is still in a stage of infancy. Further research is needed on more region-specific analyses and on logistics companies in the model region Dresden as only five of them analysed in this thesis.

<p dir="ltr">Climate change hazards are becoming more frequent and severe and their impact on Department of Defense installations has become a matter of national security. This thesis investigates the intricate relationship between climate change hazards and the Department of Defense (DoD) by examining the multifaceted impacts of environmental shifts on military operations, infrastructure, and strategic planning. As the global climate continues to undergo unpredictable changes, the DoD faces evolving challenges that extend beyond traditional security concerns.</p><p dir="ltr">The research employs a multidisciplinary approach, integrating environmental science and analysis with military strategy to assess the current and anticipated hazards posed by climate change. As the beginning of a multi-year project, this thesis examines extreme weather events in relation to their potential to disrupt critical military assets and installations in Yuma County Arizona.</p><p dir="ltr">Additionally, decision support systems were created and analyzed as part of this thesis in order to provide Department of Defense decision-makers with a tool to create personalized and up to date visuals and data. This support tool could have positive implications for force readiness, mission effectiveness, and strategic planning, recognizing climate change as a pervasive and dynamic threat.</p><p dir="ltr">The study also delves into the strategic response of the DoD to climate change hazards, evaluating adaptation measures, resilience-building initiatives, and the integration of climate considerations into defense planning processes. By examining historical and future conditions, the research identifies areas where these installations could implement changes in order to enhance climate resilience and efficiency within the defense framework.</p><p dir="ltr">In conclusion, this thesis provides an understanding of the intricate interplay between climate change hazards and national security, focusing on their direct and indirect impacts on two military installations in Arizona. By shedding light on the complexities of this relationship, it contributes to the growing body of knowledge essential for developing adaptive strategies and policies that ensure the readiness and effectiveness of the military in the face of a changing climate.</p>

Coastal socio-ecological systems face unprecedented challenges due to climate change, with impacts encompassing long-term, chronic changes and short-term extreme events. These events will impact society in many ways and prompt human responses that are extremely challenging to predict. This dissertation employs complex systems methods of agent-based modeling and machine learning to simulate the interactions between climatic stressors such as increased flooding and extreme weather and socio-economic aspects of coastal human systems. Escalating sea-level rise and intensified flooding has the potential to prompt relocation from flood-prone coastal areas. This can reduce flood exposure but also disconnect people from their homes and communities, sever longstanding social ties, and lower the tax base leading to difficulties in providing government services. Chapter 2 demonstrates a stochastic agent-based model to simulate human relocation influenced by flooding events, particularly focusing on the responses of rural and urban communities in coastal Virginia and Maryland. The findings indicate that a stochastic, bottom-up social system simulator is able to replicate top-down population projections and provide a baseline for assessing the impact of increasingly intense flooding. Chapter 3 leverages this model to assess how incorporating heterogeneity in relocation decisions across socio-economic groups impacts flood-induced relocation patterns. The results demonstrate how this heterogeneity leads to a decrease in low-income households, yet a rise in the proportion of elderly individuals in flood-prone regions by the end of the simulation period. Flood-prone areas also exhibit distinct income clusters at the end of simulation time horizon compared to simulations with a homogenous relocation likelihood. Lastly, Chapter 4 explores relationships between extreme weather and agricultural losses in the Delmarva Peninsula. Existing research on climatic impacts to agriculture largely focuses on changes to major crop yields, providing limited insights into impacts on diverse regional agricultural systems where human management and adaptation play a large role. By comparing various multistep modeling configurations and machine learning techniques, this work demonstrates that machine learning methods can accurately simulate and predict agricultural losses across the complex agricultural landscape that exists on the Delmarva peninsula. The multistep configurations developed in this work are able to address data imbalance and improve models' capacity to classify and estimate damage occurrence, which depends on multiple geographical, seasonal, and climatic factors. Collectively, this work demonstrates the potential for advanced modeling techniques to accurately replicate and simulate the impacts of climate on complex socio-ecological systems, providing insights that can ultimately support coastal adaptation. / Doctor of Philosophy / Coastal areas are facing increasing challenges from climate change, including rising sea levels and extreme weather conditions. This dissertation explores socio-economic consequences of these adverse environmental changes for coastal communities. Disruptive repetitive flooding due to exacerbated rise in sea levels is one of these consequences that may eventually leave some highly exposed coastal communities no alternative but migrating from their residences. Focusing on coastal Virginia and Maryland, Chapter 2 develops a data-informed model that can simulate individual relocation decisions and assess how they impact population changes and migration patterns. Chapter 3 employs this model to investigate how future changes in sea levels affect diverse socio-economic groups, their relocation decisions, and the resulting collective migration flows in flood-prone areas. We found that considering demographic differences leaves highly flood-prone areas with less low-income households, higher elderly individuals, and more economic clusters compared to simulations where these differences are not accounted for. Chapter 4 uses machine learning models to simulate the economic impact of extreme weather events as another manifestation of climate change on the agriculture in the Delmarva Peninsula. Through data-based modeling techniques, we identify the climatic conditions most responsible for agricultural losses and recognize modeling choices that enhance our predictive ability. Collectively, this dissertation demonstrates how sophisticated modeling techniques can be used to better understand the complex ways in which climate change will impact human society, with the ultimate goal of supporting adaptation strategies that can better address these impacts.