<p><p><strong>Background:</strong></p><p>If a company does not have an optimal model for credit portfolio management they can face difficulties if they cannot forecast how the credit portfolio will behave during recessions. It can be explained with the fact that the management for the company might ask how the department forecasts a probable default within the credit portfolio. The senior management might want to know how the management for the credit portfolio measures how big credit losses can become. They might also want to know how it is possible to reduce the risk of big credit losses. The key factor in this type of questions is how it is possible for a company to forecast a default.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p></p><p> </p><p> <strong>Purpose: </strong></p><p>Our purpose is to make a pilot study where we bring out the components that are necessary for the creative of an optimal model that is applicable on Sandvik’s credit portfolio.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Method: </strong></p><p>For the collection of empirical data, we used a qualitative method. The qualitative method was based on interviews with respondents from Scania Financial Services, Volvo CE International and Swedbank. In addition, we had discussions with our “employer” Sandvik about their credit portfolio management. We analyzed the empirically gathered data with a hermeneutic perspective.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Conclusions:</strong>                  </p><p>Sandvik has a credit portfolio with many small companies which imply that it is a high risk portfolio. For that reason we brought out components that are necessary for their credit portfolio. The components we brought out were by a comparison between the theory and our cases. The components are following: parameters within country assessment, customer’s customer, payment history and payment behavior, judgement of customer’s management, utterances from the management, investment plans, cash flow analysis, stable earnings, key performance indicators, profitability, future forecasts, balance sheet analysis, legal situation, business expertise and securities.</p>

Background: If a company does not have an optimal model for credit portfolio management they can face difficulties if they cannot forecast how the credit portfolio will behave during recessions. It can be explained with the fact that the management for the company might ask how the department forecasts a probable default within the credit portfolio. The senior management might want to know how the management for the credit portfolio measures how big credit losses can become. They might also want to know how it is possible to reduce the risk of big credit losses. The key factor in this type of questions is how it is possible for a company to forecast a default.          Purpose: Our purpose is to make a pilot study where we bring out the components that are necessary for the creative of an optimal model that is applicable on Sandvik’s credit portfolio.   Method: For the collection of empirical data, we used a qualitative method. The qualitative method was based on interviews with respondents from Scania Financial Services, Volvo CE International and Swedbank. In addition, we had discussions with our “employer” Sandvik about their credit portfolio management. We analyzed the empirically gathered data with a hermeneutic perspective.   Conclusions:                   Sandvik has a credit portfolio with many small companies which imply that it is a high risk portfolio. For that reason we brought out components that are necessary for their credit portfolio. The components we brought out were by a comparison between the theory and our cases. The components are following: parameters within country assessment, customer’s customer, payment history and payment behavior, judgement of customer’s management, utterances from the management, investment plans, cash flow analysis, stable earnings, key performance indicators, profitability, future forecasts, balance sheet analysis, legal situation, business expertise and securities.

Magistro darbe yra apibrėžtos pagrindinės komercinių bankų kreditų portfelio rizikos valdymo problemos. Išnagrinėjus Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių literatūrą, pateikti paskolų portfelio sudarymo, rizikos valdymo metodai ir jų praktinės pritaikymo galimybės komerciniuose bankuose. Analitinėje darbo dalyje pateikiami DnB NORD banko paskolų portfelio formavimo bei rizikos valdymo ypatumai. Taip pat pateikiamos paskolų portfelio rizikos valdymo tobulinimo kryptys, akcentuojant kredito, likvidumo ir palūkanų normos kitimo rizikas. / In this master’s final paper are defined main problems of commerce banks in credit portfolio risk management. Due to analyze of Lithuanian and foreign authors, principles of credit portfolio formation, risk management methods and practical appliance in commerce banks are proposed in this work. Peculiarities of credit portfolio formation and risk management in DnB NORD bank are introduced in analytical part of the work. Ways of improving credit portfolio risk management emphasizing credit, liquidity and change of interest rate risks are also offered.

Стабильность и эффективность работы коммерческого банка зависит от того, насколько грамотно сформирована его организационная структура, где огромную долю занимает организация кредитного процесса. Основной задачей банков является выдача кредитов, а кредит – это безусловно опора для современной экономики, неотъемлемый элемент экономического развития страны. Кредитование на сегодняшний используют как физические, так и юридические лица, иными словами кредитами пользуются все, начиная с государства и правительства и заканчивая гражданами. Целью выпускной квалификационной работы является исследование теоретических и практических аспектов управления кредитным портфелем и оценка эффективности данного процесса в ПАО Сбербанк. Теоретическая значимость диссертационного исследования заключается в том, что его результаты расширяют теоретическую базу для комплексного подхода исследования эффективности управления портфеля потребительского кредитования. Практическая значимость ВКР обусловлена тем, что содержащиеся в нем выводы, предложения и экономически обоснованные рекомендации позволяют улучшить финансовое состояние ПАО Сбербанк, усовершенствовать эффективность управления кредитным портфелем. / The stability and efficiency of a commercial bank depends on how well its organizational structure is formed, where a huge share is taken by the organization of the credit process. The main task of banks is to issue loans, and credit is certainly a support for the modern economy, an integral element of the country's economic development. Lending today is used by both individuals and legal entities, in other words, loans are used by everyone, starting with the state and the government and ending with citizens. The purpose of the final qualification work is to study the theoretical and practical aspects of credit portfolio management and to evaluate the effectiveness of this process in Sberbank. The theoretical significance of the dissertation research lies in the fact that its results expand the theoretical basis for a comprehensive approach to the study of the effectiveness of consumer credit portfolio management. The practical significance of the WRC is due to.

This dissertation proposes stress testing of a bank’s corporate credit portfolio in a Basel Internal Ratings Based (IRB) framework, using publicly available macroeconomic variables. Corporate insolvencies are used to derive a credit cycle index, which is linked to macroeconomic variables through a multiple regression model. Probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) that are conditional on the worst state of the credit cycle are derived from through-the-cycle PDs and LGDs. These are then used as stressed inputs into the Basel regulatory and Economic capital calculation for credit risk. Contrary to the usual expert judgement stress testing approaches, where management apply their subjective view to stress the portfolio, this approach allows macroeconomic variables to guide the severity of selected stress testing scenarios. The result is a robust stress testing framework using Rösch and Scheule (2008) conditional LGD that is correlated to the stressed PD. The downturn LGD used here is an alternative to the widely used Federal Reserve downturn LGD which assumes no correlation between PDs and LGDs. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / gm2014 / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / Unrestricted

Магистерская диссертация посвящена вопросам управления портфельным кредитным риском коммерческих банков в условиях неопределенности и асимметрии информации. Целью исследования является разработка и экономическое обоснование методического инструментария, позволяющего оценивать и регулировать портфельный кредитный риск банка по корпоративным ссудам. Сделан вывод о том, что отраслевая диверсификация кредитов является инструментом, позволяющим снизить концентрацию кредитного риска по портфелю корпоративных кредитов. / Master thesis is devoted to the management of portfolio credit risk of commercial banks in conditions of uncertainty and information asymmetry. The aim of the study is the development and economic justification of methodological instruments to assess and manage portfolio credit risk of corporate loans. It is concluded that industrial diversification of loans is a instrument that allows to reduce concentration of credit risk of the corporate loan portfolios.

Final qualification work (master thesis) investigates the theoretical and methodological framework for an integrated approach to the organization of credit process in commercial banks at the modern stage. The need for research is that effective organization of the credit process helps to avoid many risks and maximize the profit of the disbursed loan funds. The relevance of the research lies in the fact that lending to individuals and legal entities is one of the main sources of income of commercial Bank. In a rapidly changing banking environment to work on the current principles and types of lending getting more difficult, because the competitors appear more attractive offers. But the Bank such as Sberbank, it is necessary not only to follow the trends, but also to be attentive to all risks, maintaining a balance between the availability of credit and guarantee their repayment. / Выпускная квалификационная работа (магистерская диссертация) посвящена исследованию теоретической и методологической базы для комплексного подхода к организации кредитного процесса в коммерческом банке на современном этапе. Необходимость научного исследования заключается в том, что эффективная организация кредитного процесса помогает избежать возникновения многих рисков и обеспечить максимальную прибыль от выданных в кредит денежных средств. Актуальность научного исследования заключается в том, что кредитование физических и юридических лиц является одним из основных источников доходов коммерческого банка. В условиях динамично меняющейся банковской среды работать по сложившимся принципам и видам кредитования становится сложнее, т.к. у конкурентов появляются все более привлекательные предложения. Но такому банку, как Сбербанк, необходимо не только следовать тенденциям, но и внимательно относиться ко всем рискам, соблюдая баланс между доступностью кредитов и гарантией их возвратности.

Магистерская диссертация посвящена вопросам оценки кредитного риска заемщиков – физических лиц. Целью исследования является разработка методического подхода по оценке кредитоспособности заемщиков как направления совершенствования управления кредитным риском. В работе сделан вывод о том, что повышение качества кредитного портфеля банка способствует повышению конкурентоспособности банка в условиях высокой конкуренции и нормативных требований Банка России. / Master thesis is devoted to the assessment of credit risk of individual borrowers. The aim of the study is the development a methodical approach to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers as a way to improve credit risk management. The work concluded that improving the quality of the credit portfolio of a bank contributes to improving competitiveness of bank in conditions of high competition and regulatory requirements of the Bank of Russia.

Essa dissertação é um trabalho de análise do perfil das operações de crédito entre 2010 e 2015 do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social e do Badesul Desenvolvimento S.A. – Agência de Fomento/RS, duas instituições que compõem o Sistema Nacional de Fomento, subsetor do sistema financeiro voltado para financiar o investimento da economia. Busca-se entender se as duas instituições financeiras atuam sobre uma falha de mercado. Analisam-se os dados de crédito de cada instituição discriminados por porte de empresas e por região do Brasil para o BNDES e por COREDE para o Badesul. Para a consecução da proposta de análise, o trabalho utiliza como referencial teórico a hipótese das falhas de mercado, especialmente o caso de assimetria de informação, o qual pode gerar uma situação de racionamento de crédito, em que algumas firmas ficariam fora do mercado de crédito. Revisitar-se-á também a história dessas instituições em busca de subsídios que auxiliem na análise proposta e também para contextualizar o papel desempenhado pelas instituições até os dias de hoje. A análise demonstrou que o BNDES tem um padrão de concessão de crédito no que tange ao porte da companhia diferente do padrão do restante do mercado, mais concentrado em grandes empresas. Já no que concerne à distribuição geográfica, os recursos estão mais dispersos que o crédito total de mercado e mesmo que o PIB. A descentralização se dá principalmente em detrimento da Região Sudeste. Já o Badesul concede crédito de maneira mais desconcentrada em relação ao porte na comparação com o restante do mercado de crédito e mais descentralizada em relação à participação relativa no Produto Interno Bruto por região de COREDE. Entende-se que o trabalho cumpriu seu objetivo principal, qual seja demonstrar como essas instituições alocam seus recursos, à luz do referencial teórico. / This dissertation is a profile analysis of loans between 2010 and 2015 of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development and Development Badesul – Promotion Agency/RS. Two institutions that compose the National Development System, a sub-sector oriented financial system to finance investment in the economy. We try to understand if the two financial institutions work on a market failure. We analyze the credit data for each institution broken down by size of business and by region of Brazil to the BNDES and COREDE for Badesul. To achieve the analysis of the proposal, the work uses as theoretical framework the hypothesis of market failures, especially the case of information asymmetry, which can generate a credit rationing situation, where some firms would be driven out of the credit market. Also we revisit the history of these institutions seeking subsidies to assist in the proposed analysis and also to contextualize the role of institutions until the present day. The analysis showed that the BNDES has a pattern of lending in relation to the size of the company different from the standard of the rest of the market, more concentrated in large companies. In what concerns the geographic distribution, the resources are more dispersed than the total credit market and even if the GDP. This decentralization is mainly over the Southeast. In the case of Badesul, it grants credit in a more deconcentrated way regarding size compared to the rest of the credit market and more decentralized in relation to the relative share of Gross Domestic Product by COREDE region. We understand that the work fulfilled its main objective, which is to demonstrate how these institutions allocate their resources in the light of the theoretical framework.

Essa dissertação é um trabalho de análise do perfil das operações de crédito entre 2010 e 2015 do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social e do Badesul Desenvolvimento S.A. – Agência de Fomento/RS, duas instituições que compõem o Sistema Nacional de Fomento, subsetor do sistema financeiro voltado para financiar o investimento da economia. Busca-se entender se as duas instituições financeiras atuam sobre uma falha de mercado. Analisam-se os dados de crédito de cada instituição discriminados por porte de empresas e por região do Brasil para o BNDES e por COREDE para o Badesul. Para a consecução da proposta de análise, o trabalho utiliza como referencial teórico a hipótese das falhas de mercado, especialmente o caso de assimetria de informação, o qual pode gerar uma situação de racionamento de crédito, em que algumas firmas ficariam fora do mercado de crédito. Revisitar-se-á também a história dessas instituições em busca de subsídios que auxiliem na análise proposta e também para contextualizar o papel desempenhado pelas instituições até os dias de hoje. A análise demonstrou que o BNDES tem um padrão de concessão de crédito no que tange ao porte da companhia diferente do padrão do restante do mercado, mais concentrado em grandes empresas. Já no que concerne à distribuição geográfica, os recursos estão mais dispersos que o crédito total de mercado e mesmo que o PIB. A descentralização se dá principalmente em detrimento da Região Sudeste. Já o Badesul concede crédito de maneira mais desconcentrada em relação ao porte na comparação com o restante do mercado de crédito e mais descentralizada em relação à participação relativa no Produto Interno Bruto por região de COREDE. Entende-se que o trabalho cumpriu seu objetivo principal, qual seja demonstrar como essas instituições alocam seus recursos, à luz do referencial teórico. / This dissertation is a profile analysis of loans between 2010 and 2015 of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development and Development Badesul – Promotion Agency/RS. Two institutions that compose the National Development System, a sub-sector oriented financial system to finance investment in the economy. We try to understand if the two financial institutions work on a market failure. We analyze the credit data for each institution broken down by size of business and by region of Brazil to the BNDES and COREDE for Badesul. To achieve the analysis of the proposal, the work uses as theoretical framework the hypothesis of market failures, especially the case of information asymmetry, which can generate a credit rationing situation, where some firms would be driven out of the credit market. Also we revisit the history of these institutions seeking subsidies to assist in the proposed analysis and also to contextualize the role of institutions until the present day. The analysis showed that the BNDES has a pattern of lending in relation to the size of the company different from the standard of the rest of the market, more concentrated in large companies. In what concerns the geographic distribution, the resources are more dispersed than the total credit market and even if the GDP. This decentralization is mainly over the Southeast. In the case of Badesul, it grants credit in a more deconcentrated way regarding size compared to the rest of the credit market and more decentralized in relation to the relative share of Gross Domestic Product by COREDE region. We understand that the work fulfilled its main objective, which is to demonstrate how these institutions allocate their resources in the light of the theoretical framework.