Global ETD Search

21	Generic Methods for Adaptive Management of Service Level Agreements in Cloud Computing Yaqub, Edwin 29 October 2015 (has links) No description available. 510 Service Level Agreement (SLA) Cloud Computing Services SLA Negotiation Resource Allocation Decision Making under Uncertainty IaaS, PaaS, SaaS Informatik (PPN619939052)
22	Urban climate change adaptation pathways for short to long term decision-making Kingsborough, Ashley January 2016 (has links) Climate resilience is increasingly an attribute of competitive global cities. Cities that are most responsive to change will continue to prosper. To achieve this, governance structures and decision-making approaches that promote flexible and/or robust adaptation action are required. This thesis introduces a framework for urban adaptation planning that links medium-term risk management with the development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways. A long-term plan informed by the appraisal of a range of plausible pathways provides the opportunity to retain the flexibility to respond to future uncertainties, whilst also demonstrating how a city could manage future climate risk. This provides stakeholders with confidence that long-term risk is adequately considered, even if there is not a need to act immediately. To demonstrate how adaptation pathways can support adaptation decision-making in an urban system, the approach and methods developed as part of this thesis are applied in London. Adaptation pathways in response to water scarcity, surface water flood and heat risk were developed, and their appraisal presented as pathways diagrams. These diagrams provide a visual representation of the sequencing of decision points and plausible adaptation actions that may be implemented in the future. Pathways diagrams present climate risk and adaptation information for decision-makers in a salient and actionable manner. The pathways responding to individual risks in London are then brought together to demonstrate how an integrated assessment framework may be used to appraise city-scale adaptation pathways that respond to multiple climate risks. The growing emphasis within adaptation planning on approaches that can react flexibly to change increases the need to better understand the dynamics of climate risk and embed learning about the effectiveness of adaptation actions. To complement the pathways and adaptation decision-making research presented in this thesis, a framework that links adaptation monitoring and evaluation (M&E), risk assessment and decision-making is presented and explored to highlight the potential benefits of, and mechanisms for, adaptation M&E to inform and strengthen iterative risk-based adaptation planning. Demonstrated for the Thames Estuary, where concepts of adaptation planning have been pioneered but the opportunities of linking to monitoring and evaluation have not been extensively explored, we show how the framework can highlight actions and factors that are contributing to improving adaptation outcomes and those that require strengthening. This thesis contributes to the literature on urban climate change adaptation planning under conditions of uncertainty. This thesis also contributes to the evidence base needed to justify long-term planning and realise the benefits of climate risk reduction through the implementation of flexible, long-term integrated urban adaptation plans.
23	Robust energy and climate modeling for policy assessment / Améliorer la robustesse de l’évaluation des politiques climatique et énergétique Nicolas, Claire 01 June 2016 (has links) La plupart des exercices d’analyse de politiques climatiques ou énergétiques font appelà des modèles dits "d’évaluation intégrée" (MEIs). Ces modèles économie-énergie-climat sont des modèles numériques pluridisciplinaires destinés à étudier lesquestions liées au changement climatique et à sa gestion. Socles d’une accumulationde connaissance, ils ont une visée prospective et aident à traduire les débatsqualitatifs des instances de décisions nationales et internationales en un ensemble dedonnées quantitatives, scientifiquement vérifiables. Leur faible capacité à prendre encompte les incertitudes inhérentes à tout exercice de prospective mais aussi leur tropgrande complexité expliquent pourquoi ces MEIs sont si souvent décriés et leurutilisation remise en question.Ce constat a guidé nos travaux dont l’objectif était de contribuer à améliorer larobustesse des MEIs, afin de renforcer la pertinence de leur utilisation pour l’analysede l’impact de politiques économiques sur le climat-énergie. Nous avons d’abordexaminé comment ces modèles participent aux débats sur le changement climatique etcomment améliorer leur utilisation. Nous avons retracé la genèse de ces modèles etleur évolution et analysé les principales critiques qui leur sont adressées. Dans unsecond temps, nous nous sommes focalisés sur l’un des principaux reproches faits auxMEIs : le traitement de l’incertitude. Sur la base de ces analyses, nous avons mis enoeuvre une approche récente de traitement des problèmes d’incertitude paramétrique:l’optimisation robuste, méthode encore très peu utilisée dans le cadre d’étudesprospectives. / Energy-economy and energy-economy-environment models are widely used to assessenergy and climate policies. Developed during the last forty years, these models allowthe study of the interactions between the energy-transport system, the economy andthe climate system. These interactions are very complex as they involve linkages,feedback loops and delays that are not perfectly known and that take place over a longtime horizon.This complexity along with the large uncertainties weighing on the model parametersand main assumptions explain why the use of models in the policy debate, (where themodels address issues on climate change scenarios and on energy planning), is largelycriticized.Based on this observation, our work aimed primarily at increasing the robustness ofthese models, to reinforce the relevance of their use to evaluate economic policyimpacts. At first, we examine how these models should be used to contributeeffectively to the climate and energy policy analysis debate. We review the evolution ofthe modeling practice and question it, discussing its relevance. We then focus on theuncertainty treatment and on the basis of this review, we implement an alternativeway of considering parameter uncertainty when "modeling the future" using robustoptimization. Optimisation robuste Evaluation de politiques Politiques climatiques Politiques énergétiques Prise de décision en incertitude Robust optimization Policy assessment Climate & energy policies Decision making under uncertainty Energy economics 330
24	Knowledge System Innovation for Resilient Coastal Cities January 2020 (has links) abstract: Cities are in need of radical knowledge system innovations and designs in the age of the Anthropocene. Cities are complex sites of interactions across social, ecological, and technological dimensions. Cities are also experiencing rapidly changing and intractable environmental conditions. Given uncertain and incomplete knowledge of both future environmental conditions and the outcomes of urban resilience efforts, today’s knowledge systems are unequipped to generate the knowledge and wisdom needed to act. As such, cities must modernize the knowledge infrastructure underpinning today’s complex urban systems. The principal objective of this dissertation is to make the case for, and guide, the vital knowledge system innovations that coastal cities need in order to build more resilient urban futures. Chapter 2 demonstrates the use of knowledge systems analysis as a tool to stress-test and upgrade the Federal Emergency Management Agency flood mapping knowledge system that drives flood resilience planning and decision-making in New York City. In Chapter 3, a conceptual framework is constructed for the design and analysis of knowledge co-production by integrating concepts across the co-production and urban social-ecological-technological systems literatures. In Chapter 4, the conceptual framework is used to analyze two case studies of knowledge co-production in the Miami Metropolitan Area to better inform decisions for how and when to employ co-production as a tool to achieve sustainability and resilience outcomes. In Chapter 5, six propositions are presented – derived from a synthesis of the literature and the three empirical cases – that knowledge professionals can employ to create, facilitate, and scale up knowledge system innovations: flatten knowledge hierarchies; create plural and positive visions of the future; construct knowledge co-production to achieve desired outcomes; acknowledge and anticipate the influence of power and authority; build anticipatory capacities to act under deep uncertainty; and identify and invest in knowledge innovations. While these six propositions apply to the context of coastal cities and flood resilience, most can also be useful to facilitate knowledge innovations to adapt to other complex and intractable environmental problems. Cities must move swiftly to create and catalyze knowledge system innovations given the scale of climate impacts and rapidly changing environmental conditions. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Sustainability 2020 Sustainability Environmental science Climate change Decision Making Under Uncertainty Flood Risk Knowledge Co-Production Knowledge Innovation Social-Ecological-Technological Systems Urban Resilience
25	Utility optimal decision making when responding to No Fault Found events Archana Ravindran (9029510) 26 June 2020 (has links) <p>No Fault Founds (NFFs) are an expensive problem faced by the airline industry. The underlying cause of NFFs are a major focus of research work in the field, but the dearth of consistent data is a roadblock faced by many decision makers. An important risk factor identified is the occurrence rate of NFFs.</p><p>This research work aims to help decision makers in the Airline Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul teams, when faced with recurring NFFs, to make a choice based on value derived from the system and risk preference of the decision maker under uncertainty. The value of the aircraft fleet is laid out using Net Present Value at every decision point along the system life cycle while accounting for the uncertainty in the failure rate information. Two extreme decisions are considered for the decision maker to choose between: rebooting the system every time a failure occurs and results in an NFF which allows for it to recur while reducing uncertainty of the failure rate; or eliminating the failure mode which assumes that the failure does not recur and therefore completely removes the uncertainty. Both decisions have their associated uncertain costs that affect the NPV calculated. We use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the expected profit from deciding to eliminate the failure mode. We make use of Expected Utility Theory to account for the risk preference of a decision maker under uncertainty and build an Expected Utility Maximizing decision framework.</p>To conclude we give some guidance to interpret the results and understand what factors influence the optimal decision. We conclude that not accounting for uncertainty in estimating a failure rate for the future along with uncertainty in NFF costs can lead to an undesirable decision. If the decision maker waits too long to gather more information and reduce uncertainty, then rebooting the system for the remaining life could be more worthwhile than spending the large amount of money to Eliminate a failure mode. Finally, we conclude that, despite uncertainties in information of occurrence rates and costs of NFFs, an Expected Utility maximizing decision between the two options considered – Reboot and Eliminate – is possible given the available information. Aerospace Engineering Decision Making Avionics Operations Research Expected Utility Net Present Value decision-making No Fault Found Decision making under uncertainty Uncertainty failure model discounted cash flow
26	Oracle-based algorithms for optimizing sophisticated decision criteria in sequential, robust and fair decision problems / Algorithmes à base d'oracles pour optimiser des critères décisionnels sophistiqués pour les problèmes de décision séquentielle, robuste et équitable Gilbert, Hugo 11 December 2017 (has links) Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le cadre de la théorie de la décision algorithmique, qui est une discipline au croisement de la théorie de la décision, la recherche opérationnelle et l'intelligence artificielle. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de plusieurs modèles décisionnels pour résoudre des problèmes de décision séquentielle dans l'incertain, d'optimisation robuste, et d'optimisation multi-agents équitable. Pour résoudre efficacement ces problèmes, nous utilisons des méthodes de type maître-esclaves, dites à base d'oracles dans la thèse. Ces méthodes permettent de résoudre des problèmes de grande taille en procédant de manière incrémentale. Une attention particulière est portée au modèle de l'espérance d'utilité antisymétrique et bilinéaire, au modèle de l'espérance d'utilité pondérée et à leurs pendants en décision multicritère. L'intérêt de ces modèles est multiple. En effet, ils étendent les modèles standards (e.g., modèle de l'espérance d'utilité) et permettent de représenter un spectre étendu de préférences tout en conservant leurs bonnes propriétés théoriques et algorithmiques. La thèse apporte des réponses sur des aspects théoriques (e.g., résultats de complexité algorithmique) et sur des aspects opérationnels (e.g., conception de méthodes de résolution efficaces) aux problèmes soulevés par l'emploi de ces critères dans les contextes susmentionnés. / This thesis falls within the area of algorithmic decision theory, which is at the crossroads between decision theory, operational research and artificial intelligence. In this thesis, we study several decision models to solve problems in different domains: sequential decision problems under risk, robust optimization problems, and fair multi-agent optimization problems. To solve these problems efficiently, we use master-slave algorithms which solve the problem through an incremental process. These procedures, referred to as oracle methods in the thesis, make it possible to solve problems of large size. A particular attention is given to the skew-symmetric bilinear utility model, the weighted expected utility model and their counterparts in multicriteria decision making. These models are interesting at several respects. They extend the standard models (e.g., the expected utility model) and allow to represent a broader class of preferences while retaining their good theoretical and algorithmic properties. The thesis focuses both on theoretic (e.g., complexity results) and operational (e.g., design of practically efficient solution methods) aspects of the problems raised by the use of these criteria in the domains aforementioned. Théorie de la décision algorithmique Décision séquentielle dans l'incertain Optimisation robuste Optimisation équitable Méthodes à base d'oracles Elicitation de préférences Algorithmic decision theory Oracle methods 003.56
27	Synergie du triptyque : Knowledge Management, Intelligence Economique et Business Intelligence. Contribution à la réduction des riques liés aux décisions stratégiques dans les nouveaux environnements concurrentiels incertains : Cas des Entreprises Publiques Algériennes / Synergy triptich : Knowledge management, competitive intelligence § business intelligence contribution to reduce risks related to strategic decisions inthe new uncertain environments : Case of algerian state-owned firms Baaziz, Abdelkader 09 April 2015 (has links) Depuis 1988, l’Algérie a initié des réformes économiques profondes appuyées par un arsenal législatif et des accords internationaux. L’Etat Algérien a abandonné son rôle de protecteur sans maîtriser son rôle de régulateur. Le passage de l’économie planifiée basée sur le monopole de l’Etat à une économie de marché, est caractérisé par l’émergence du secteur privé et des changements radicaux sur le plan institutionnel en ce qui concerne l’Etat, et sur le plan organisationnel, stratégique et technologique concernant les EPA. Dans ce contexte incertain, ces EPA ne peuvent plus compter uniquement sur leurs capacités internes. Elles doivent s'ouvrir pour créer des partenariats avec leurs fournisseurs, les universités et même leurs concurrents. D’où nécessité de :- Mutation vers de nouvelles formes adaptées aux événements imprévus et résilientes pour faire face aux environnements incertains- Un Systèmes d’Information d’Intelligence Stratégique, capables d’orienter la décision en réduisant les risques dus aux incertitudes inhérents aux choix stratégiques- Rechercher les moyens de rendre réversibles les choix lorsque des événements inattendus surviennent.L'objectif de cette thèse est de montrer la complexité des environnements politique, juridique, social et économique où les EPA opèrent et pourquoi il est nécessaire de gérer les risques liés à cet environnement, à savoir : Inertie durant le processus de transformation organisationnelle, mauvaise compréhension des signaux captés et la mauvaise réaction du décideur face aux signaux et aux événements. Ici interviennent les concepts de KM, d’IE et de BI, à différents niveaux du management : du stratégique à l’opérationnel. / Since 1988, Algeria has initiated deeper economic reforms supported by significant legislation and international agreements. The algerian government has abandoned its protector role without providing a required regulatory role. The transition from a planned economy based on state monopole to a market economy based, is characterized by the emergence of local and foreign private sector implies radical changes both politically and institutionally (regarding Algerian State) on the organizational, strategic and technological plans for State-Owned Firms. In this uncertain environment, Algerian State-Owned Firm cannot rely only on their internal capabilities. They should, create partnerships, both with suppliers, subcontractors, universities and even competitors. There is a need for these firms to: - Transform their organization to a new form improved for unexpected events and enough resilience to adapt to uncertain environments- Build a Strategic Intelligence Information System able to facilitate decision-making and reduce risks inherent to the strategic choices- Find ways to reverse choice when unexpected events occur.The aim of this thesis is to show the complexity of the political, legal, social and economic environments where the Algerian State-Owned Firms operate. Also, we show why it's necessary to handle the following risks: inertia against the process of organizational transformation, wrong understanding of the received signals from the environment and poor reaction of the decision-maker to signals and events in the environment. Here, the concepts of KM, CI and BI operate at different levels of management: from strategic to operational. Intelligence Economique Business Intelligence Knowledge Management Décision stratégique Environnement concurrentiel incertain Entreprise Publique Economique (EPA) Competitive Intelligence Business Intelligence Knowledge Management Uncertain competitive environments Decision-Making under uncertainty State-Owned Firm
28	Vícekriteriální analýza variant a její aplikace v praxi / Multi-Criteria Analysis and its application in practice DOUBRAVOVÁ, Hana January 2009 (has links) This work deals with Multi-Criteria Analysis which represents an effective tool for solving complex decision-making situations. This paper describes the various methods of multi-criteria evaluation. One of the chapters also focuses on the software support. The main objective of this document is to demonstrate how to apply Multi-Criteria Analysis in real life. The practical part of this study refers to the structural policy and deals with the evaluation of regions of the Czech Republic after its entry into the European Union. The study mainly concentrates on the detailed analysis of South Bohemia region.
29	Postoje k riziku u českých studentů středních škol: rozdíly mezi muži a ženami / Gender differences in risk attitude among Czech high school students Holá, Lucie January 2011 (has links) The diploma thesis "Gender differences in risk attitude among Czech high school students" discusses how people deal with risk in everyday life. The first part of the paper investigates the forming of risk perception, and the factors that influence the process. Social and cultural structures are of high importance, but also individual factors (such as gender or personal experiences) as well as media representation matter. Risk perception plays a key role in decision-making in situations dealing with uncertainty and the paper asserts that it is possible to model risk behaviour and make predictions accordingly. The second part of the paper presents research on risk attitudes among Czech high school students. It deals with gender differences and students' willingness to risk in three key domains: social, health and leisure time. The model used in the paper focuses on students' willingness to participate in a given activity, their perception of the probability of negative outcomes, and the degree of pleasure derived from the activity. Research indicates that a) men are more willing to risk in health and leisure time related activities, whereas women are more daring in social activities; b) students coming from academically oriented schools are more willing to risk in social activities than students...
30	Highway Development Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Analysis, Critique and Advancement El-Khatib, Mayar January 2010 (has links) While decision-making under uncertainty is a major universal problem, its implications in the field of transportation systems are especially enormous; where the benefits of right decisions are tremendous, the consequences of wrong ones are potentially disastrous. In the realm of highway systems, decisions related to the highway configuration (number of lanes, right of way, etc.) need to incorporate both the traffic demand and land price uncertainties. In the literature, these uncertainties have generally been modeled using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process, which has been used extensively in modeling many other real life phenomena. But few scholars, including those who used the GBM in highway configuration decisions, have offered any rigorous justification for the use of this model. This thesis attempts to offer a detailed analysis of various aspects of transportation systems in relation to decision-making. It reveals some general insights as well as a new concept that extends the notion of opportunity cost to situations where wrong decisions could be made. Claiming deficiency of the GBM model, it also introduces a new formulation that utilizes a large and flexible parametric family of jump models (i.e., Lévy processes). To validate this claim, data related to traffic demand and land prices were collected and analyzed to reveal that their distributions, heavy-tailed and asymmetric, do not match well with the GBM model. As a remedy, this research used the Merton, Kou, and negative inverse Gaussian Lévy processes as possible alternatives. Though the results show indifference in relation to final decisions among the models, mathematically, they improve the precision of uncertainty models and the decision-making process. This furthers the quest for optimality in highway projects and beyond. highway development decision making under uncertainty real options jump processes infinitely divisible distributions Lévy processes measure theory characteristic function characteristic exponent Lévy jump measure probability measure cádlág stochastic process Wiener process Poisson process compound Poisson process finite activity models jump diffusion models Merton model Gaussian jump process Kou model double exponential jump process leptokurtic volatility smile infinite activity models pure jumps process generalized hyperbolic model modified Bessel function negative inverse Gaussian model geometric Brownian motion model log-normal distribution model normality assumption heavy-tailed distribution asymmetric distribution quantile-quantile plot Rydberg algorithm parameter calibration moments cummulants sum of squares Monte Carlo simulation least-squares regression backward dynamic programming discrete-time Markov chain land price traffic demand highway service quality index data collection traffic volume Annual Average Daily Traffic Ontario Ministry of Transportation Land Registry Office Freedom of Information Act seasonality value of transportation types of transportation systems importance of highway systems cost of wrong decisions monetary cost private sector cost human cost land expropriation environmental cost irreversibility cost factor time cost factor political cost factor opportunity cost opportunity cost of wrong decisions economic cost of wrong decisions economic cost of mis-estimation economic profit of wrong decisions cost of inaction price of making right decisions scope of decisions rehabilitation decision land acquisition decision expansion decision uncertainty modeling land acquisition cost expropriation cost construction cost material cost Montréal-Mirabel International Airport Pickering Airport 407 Express Toll Route Highway 407 Statistics

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