[pt] Esta tese é composta por três artigos independentes relacionados a macroeconomia. No primeiro artigo, nós aumentamos um modelo dinâmico de equilíbrio geral relativamente padrão com fricções financeiras, a fim de quantificar os efeitos macroeconômicos da expansão de credito observado no Brasil. No modelo, um estilizado setor bancário intermedia credito das famílias pacientes para as famílias impacientes e empresas. A novidade fundamental deste artigo é que nós modelamos a restrição de crédito enfrentada por (impacientes) famílias em função do rendimento do trabalho futuro. No modelo calibrado, expansão de crédito gera apenas modestos resultados sobre o crescimento acima do potencial do consumo, investimento e PIB. No segundo artigo, documentamos que a associação entre o crescimento do consumo médio per capita e a expansão do crédito é mais forte em países com maior desigualdade de renda. Nós usamos um modelo de mercados incompletos com famílias heterogêneas, risco idiossincrático e restrições ao crédito para verificar em que medida este arcabouço teórico pode racionalizar a evidencia empírica. Mostramos que, quando a fonte de desigualdade de renda vem do menor nível de capital humano fixo das famílias, o nosso modelo pode racionalizar a evidência empírica encontrada. Uma vez que as outras fontes de desigualdade de renda consideradas, o resultado oposto corre. Finalmente, no terceiro artigo, nós usamos um modelo de vetor auto-regressivo com fator aumentado (FAVAR) para estimar o impacto de um choque na taxa de juros internacional e de choque de preços de commodities na economia peruana. Nossos resultados sugerem que um choque positivo de taxa de juros internacional tem efeitos contracionistas, reduzindo o PIB, a taxa de inflação e gerando uma depreciação cambial, aumentando a taxa de juros interna e uma redução das reservas internacionais. No caso de choque de precos de commodities, encontramos que os nossos resultados são consistentes com a literatura, em que um choque positivo expande o PIB, as exportações líquidas e taxa de inflação. / [en] This thesis is comprised of three articles independent related to macroeconomics. In the first article, we augment a relatively standard dynamic, general equilibrium model with financial frictions, in order to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the credit deepening process observed in Brazil. In the model, a stylized banking sector intermediates credit from patient households to impatient households and firms. The key novelty of the paper is to model the credit constraint faced by (impatient) households as a function of future labor income. In the calibrated model, credit deepening generates only modest above-trend growth in consumption, investment, and GDP. In the second article, we documented that the association between consumption growth and credit expansion is stronger in countries with higher income inequality. We use an incomplete markets model with heterogeneous households, idiosyncratic risk and borrowing constraints to check in which extent this theoretical framework can rationalize the empirical finding. We show that when the source of income inequality comes from households lowest fixed level of human capital, our model can rationalize the empirical evidence. Once other sources of income inequality are considered, the opposite occurs. Finally, in the third article, we use a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to estimate the impact of an international interest rate shock and a commodities price shock on the Peruvian economy. Our results suggest that a positive international interest rate shock has contractive effects, it reduces GDP and inflation rate and generates an exchange rate depreciation, an increase of the domestic interest rate and a reduction of international reserves. In the case of commodity price shock, we find that its effects are consistent with the previous literature in which a positive shock expands GDP, net exports and inflation rate.

資本市場對於一國社會經濟的發展，佔有舉足輕重的地位。一方面，企業生產所需之資本，透過股票或債券等證券的發行，在資本市場迅速籌集資金，推動國家經濟不斷成長；另一方面，國民儲蓄認購企業發行之證券，分享企業經營之成果，從而達成「均富」之目標。台灣資本市場的建立，可以民國51年2月9日「台灣證券交易所」成立為里程碑，發展迄今已逾37年，市場規模日益壯大，並朝向國際化的方向發展。臺灣資本市場的發展就如臺灣經濟發展之縮影，二者亦步亦趨，密不可分。藉由對臺灣資本市場深化程度之探究，將能清楚地看出資本市場在臺灣經濟發展歷程中所佔的比重與發揮的功能。所謂「資本深化」（Capital Deepening），係指資本市場中資金累積的速度。民國五O年代是臺灣經濟的黃金時期，此階段之資本深化程度於五十二至五十五年間為最高；民國六O年代經歷兩次能源危機，但我國堅強之因應能力使得資本市場得以順利發展，深化程度維持穩定；到了七O年代，台灣經濟呈現起伏不定的變化，尤其是七O年代末期，資本市場深化程度大幅提升，但這是市場不正常發展的結果；八O年代迄今，資本市場全力朝自由化與國際化發展。在臺灣資本市場的發展歷程中，遭逢七次重大危機。此七次危機是以股票市場之「十年均線」為標的，本文開創性地歸納出六段加權股價指數於十年均線以下的時期，這六個時期分別為民國71年8月至72年1月、民國79年2月至79年10月、民國81年9月至82年1月、民國84年8月至85年3月、民國87年8月至87年9月與民國88年1月至88年2月；此外，民國83年10月，洪福證券公司發生鉅額跳票，造成股市連續暴跌一個星期，股價指數於六個交易日內重挫1059.04點，跌幅達14.75%，資本市場受創程度不亞於前述六個時期。從臺灣資本市場發展的軌跡中，可以發現影響資本市場起伏變化的因素主要有： 經濟循環、政治因素( 國際形勢的變化、 戰爭的影響、 國內重大政治事件、 國家的重大經濟政策)、 貨幣供給與利率、油價、 企業經營狀況與人為操縱等。此六項因素左右資本市場發展過程之盛衰起伏。 第一章 緒論 ……………………………………………………1~9 第一節 研究背景與目的 …………………………………1~4 第二節 研究內容與流程 …………………………………5~7 第三節 研究方法與限制 …………………………………8~9 第二章 資本市場與國家經濟發展 ……………………………10~29 第一節 「資本」概念的論述 ……………………………10~15 第二節 資本的形成－儲蓄和投資的相關理論 …………16~26 第三節 資本市場在經濟發展中所扮演的角色 …………27~29 第三章 臺灣資本市場之發展歷程 ……………………………30~82 第一節 臺灣資本市場的建立 ……………………………30~41 第二節 臺灣資本市場運作制度之演變歷程 ……………42~62 一、 證券市場管理方面 ……………………………42~47 二、 證券發行市場方面 ……………………………48~51 三、 證券流通市場方面 ……………………………52~55 四、 證券服務業方面 ………………………………56~59 五、 證券市場國際化方面 …………………………60~62 第三節 臺灣資本市場發行與交易之變遷 ………………63~82 一、 股票之發行與交易情形 ………………………63~78 二、 債券之發行與交易情形 ………………………78~82 第四章 臺灣資本市場深化程度之演進 ………………………83~123 第一節 衡量「資本深化」程度指標的建立 ……………83~105 第二節 民國五o年代 ……………………………………106~109 第三節 民國六o年代 ……………………………………110~114 第四節 民國七o年代 ……………………………………115~119 第五節 民國八o年代 ……………………………………120~123 第五章 臺灣資本市場遭逢七次危機之背景、成因、解決政策與借鑒 ………………………124~160 第一節 民國71年8月至72年1月 ……………………124~130 第二節 民國79年2月至79年10月 ………………… 131~136 第三節 民國81年9月至82年1月 ……………………137~143 第四節 民國83年10月 ………………………………144~147 第五節 民國84年8月至85年3月 ……………………148~152 第六節 民國87年8月至87年9月 ……………………153~156 第七節 民國88年1月至88年2月 ……………………157~160 第六章 結論 ………………………………………………… 161~170 第一節 本文主要發現 …………………………………161~164 第二節 本文政策性意涵 ………………………………165~169 第三節 可進一步研究之方向 …………………………170 參考文獻 ……………………………………………………171~180 / Capital market plays a key role in one country's economic development. On the one hand, enterprises can acquire the capital that they demand through issuing securities in capital market; on other hand, the public can share the profits of enterprises by purchasing securities in capital market. The foundation of "Taiwan Stock Exchange" on February 9, 1962 was a milestone in Taiwan's capital market history. Taiwan's capital market development is a miniature of Taiwan's economic development. The significance and functions of Taiwan's capital market in different stages of Taiwan's economic development can be observed clearly by exploring "Capital Deepening". "Capital Deepening" is the speed of capital accumulation in capital market. From 1962 till now, Taiwan's capital market has encountered seven severe crisives-from August 1982 to January 1983, from February 1990 to October 1990, from September 1992 to January 1993, from August 1995 to March 1996, from August 1998 to September 1998, from January 1999 to February 1999, and October 1994. Overall, there are six main factors which influence Taiwan's capital market deeply. They are business cycles, political factors, money supply and interest rate, oil price, enterprises, and personal manipulation.

Le droit des aides d’Etat est un domaine singulier du droit de l’Union européenne (UE). Sonobjectif le rend même unique au monde et pourtant il demeure en partie méconnu et seseffets sous-estimés. La crise économique et financière débutée en 2007 l’a remis sur ledevant de la scène. Dans ce contexte, un outil s’est révélé comme central dans la gestiondes évènements : la conditionnalité. Longtemps ignorée, cette technique, présente depuisles origines en droit des aides d’Etat, s’avère être d’une influence insoupçonnée sur lemécanisme de contrôle des soutiens étatiques. D’une part, elle autorise la Commission àexiger des modifications substantielles, tant du projet d’aide que des bénéficiaires, afin d’enautoriser la mise en oeuvre. D’autre part, la conditionnalité permet à la Commissiond’avancer un agenda politique, de manière indirecte, au service de l’approfondissement del’UE. Son incidence ne se limite pas seulement à la question de la compatibilité desfinancements publics. Elle s’exprime également dans le cadre du suivi des décisionsconditionnelles, et des éventuels recours juridictionnels. De nouvelles techniques basées surla conditionnalité ont fait leur apparition à tous les stades de l’examen des aides. Plusencore, elle joue un rôle considérable, en amont, dans le processus de création du droit desaides d’Etat et de sa soft law. Compte tenu de sa portée, cette étude s’est attachée àmesurer l’ampleur de ce phénomène, à définir ses concepts, à identifier ses formes et àévaluer ses conséquences. Il en résulte que la conditionnalité est à l’origine d’une nouvelleapproche du droit des aides d’Etat. / State aid law is a unique area of European Union (EU) law. Its objective makes it evenunique in the world and yet it remains partly unknown and its effects underestimated. Theeconomic and financial crisis, which began in 2007, has brought it back to the forefront. Inthis context, a tool has proved to be central in the management of events: conditionality. Thistechnique, which has long been ignored, has always had an unsuspected influence on themechanism of control over state support. On the one hand, it authorizes the Commission torequire substantial changes, both in the aid project and for the beneficiaries, in order toauthorize its implementation. On the other hand, conditionality allows the Commission to putforward a political agenda, indirectly, to service the deepening of the EU. Its impact is notlimited to the question of the compatibility of public funding. It is also expressed in the contextof the monitoring of conditional decisions, and possible judicial review. New techniquesbased on conditionality have emerged at all stages state aid control. Moreover, it plays aconsiderable role, upstream, in the process of creating state aid law and its soft law. Givenits scope, this study focused on measuring the extent of this phenomenon, defining itsconcepts, identifying its forms and evaluating its consequences. As a result, conditionality isat the origin of a new approach to state aid law.

[pt] Esta tese é composta por três artigos relacionados à macroeconomia. O primeiro artigo analisa os efeitos macroeconômicos dos processos de aprofundamento de crédito observados no Peru e no México através de um modelo padrão Novo Keynesiano dinâmico de equilíbrio geral com fricções financeiras. Do ponto de vista do modelo, os efeitos sobre o consumo, o PIB e o investimento são pequenos. Assim, nossos resultados sugerem apenas uma contribuição modesta da expansão do crédito para o crescimento acima do potencial das economias peruana e mexicana durante o período considerado. No segundo artigo, documentamos que a associação entre o crescimento do consumo e expansão do crédito é maior para países com maior desigualdade de renda. Nós usamos um modelo de mercados incompletos com agentes heterogêneos, risco idiossincrático e restrições ao crédito para verificar em que medida este arcabouço teórico é capaz de racionalizar a evidencia empírica. Em nosso modelo, consideramos duas fontes de desigualdade de renda: a variância do risco idiossincrático e o nível fixo de capital humano dos agentes. Mostramos que, quando a fonte de desigualdade de renda vem da menor nível fixo das famílias do capital humano, o nosso modelo pode racionalizar a evidência empírica. Nos outros casos, o resultado oposto ocorre. O terceiro artigo testa os efeitos de um grande programa de intervenções no mercado cambial anunciado pelo Banco Central do Brasil afim de combater o excesso de volatilidade e overshooting da taxa de câmbio. Nós usamos uma abordagem de controle sintético para determinar se o programa de intervenção foi bem sucedido ou não. Nossos resultados sugerem que o primeiro programa de intervenção cambial mitigou a depreciação do real frente ao dólar. Todavia, um segundo anúncio feito no final do ano que o programa ia continuar com uma intensidade menor teve um efeito menor e não significativo. Esse resultado é corroborado por uma metodologia de estudo de evento padrão. Nós também documentamos que o programa e a continuação do mesmo não tiveram impacto sobre a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. / [en] This dissertation is composed of three articles in macroeconomics. The first article explores the macroeconomics effects of the credit deepening processes observed in Peru and Mexico using a standard New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions. From the perspective of the model, the effects on consumption, GDP and investment are small. Hence, our results suggest only a modest contribution of credit expansion to the abovetrend growth experienced by Peruvian and Mexican economies during our sample period. In the second article, we documented that the association between consumption growth and credit expansion is stronger in countries with higher income inequality. We use an incomplete-markets model with heterogeneous households, idiosyncratic risk and borrowing constraints to corroborate this empirical finding. A loosening of credit constraints mitigates precautionary motives, inducing households to reduce savings along the transition path to the new steady-state. Therefore, consumption grows more rapidly in the shortrun. This consumption boom is amplified in economies with more constrained households. We consider two sources of income inequality in our model: the variance of the idiosyncratic risk and the households fixed level of human capital. They have different implications for the extent to which households are credit constrained in equilibrium. We show that when the source of income inequality comes from households lowest fixed level of human capital, our model can rationalize the empirical evidence. In the other cases, the opposite occurs. The third article tests the effects of a major program of interventions in foreign exchange markets announced by the Central Bank of Brazil to fight excess volatility and exchange rate overshooting. We use a synthetic control approach to determine whether or not the intervention program was successful. Our results suggest that the first foreign exchange intervention program mitigated the depreciation of the real against the dollar. A second announcement made later in the year that the program was going to continue on a smaller basis had a smaller effect, which was not significant. This result is corroborated by a standard event study methodology. We also document that both program did not have an impact on the volatility of the exchange rate.