Dans cette thèse, nous développons une méthode d’estimation de l’effacement de consommation électrique d’un groupe de clients résidentiels. L’effacement, correspondant à une réduction de la puissance électrique sur une certaine durée, est désormais valorisé sur les marchés électriques et contribue à équilibrer le système électrique. Pour le quantifier, il faut estimer qu’elle aurait été la puissance appelée, i.e. la baseline, en l’absence de l’effacement. Ce dernier s’obtient alors par différence de la baseline et de la puissance réalisée. Les méthodes d’estimation de la baseline reposent sur des profils de consommation, des modèles de régression et des méthodes fondées sur un groupe de contrôle. Ces dernières offrent les résultats les plus précis mais déployer un groupe de contrôle aléatoire pour un usage opérationnel n’est pas envisageable.On s’intéresse donc à sélectionner un groupe de contrôle non-expérimental selon deux approches : la première emploie les caractéristiques observables des clients contrôles et la seconde leurs courbes de charge individuelles. Cette dernière idée consiste à sélectionner ces individus tels que la distance entre leur courbe de charge moyenne et celle du groupe recevant les effacements soit minimale. A cette fin, nous proposons un algorithme de sélection et adaptons les méthodes de régression sous contrainte, ridge et Lasso. Ces nouvelles méthodes procurent les meilleurs résultats. Enfin, pour estimer l’effacement en ligne, nous mettons en place un outil innovant qui associe un système de gestion de flux de données à un logiciel statistique / In this thesis, we develop a method in order to estimate the residential electricity demand reduction. The demand reduction or the curtailment, aiming at reducing the energy use during a short period, is currently enhanced on electricity markets and contributes to balance the electric system. To quantify it, one has to estimate the consumption, i.e. the baseline, which would have been used in the absence of the demand reduction. The curtailment is then obtained by subtracting the metered load during the demand reduction event from the baseline. The baseline estimation methods rely on day or weather matching methods, regression models and control group approaches. These one give the more accurate results but deploying a randomized control group is not possible for an operational use.We are then interested in selecting a non-experimental control group according to two approaches: the first uses the observable characteristics of the control customers and the second their individual load curves. This last idea consists in selecting those individuals such that the distance between their average load curve and that of the demand reduction group is minimal. To this end, we develop a forward selection algorithm and apply the constrained regression methods, ridge and Lasso. These methods provide the best results. Finally, we set up an innovative process which links a data flow module with a statistical software and allows to estimate the demand reduction on-line.

The power system is a complex entity with unique plant designs, control systems, and market strategies. For many years, engineers have developed advanced technology to keep the grid efficient and balanced. With the rise of renewable sources, some new technology and programs must be developed to keep the quality of the power system. Unlike traditional power plants, renewable energy is highly dependent on environmental factors, such as sunlight and wind, meaning the generation depends on an unpredictable source of fuel. As the grid moves to more sustainable sources, the power market faces a growing challenge of less control over the forecasted supply offered by each renewable plant. This uncertainty creates a high need to develop alternative methods to ensure the power supply always meets demand. With diminishing control over our generation, one potential solution has been to explore demand response initiatives. Demand response focuses on the engagement of consumers to reduce the electricity demand, facilitating sub-hourly efforts on the supply side. This paper will analyze the effect of demand response efforts on the participants and provide insights into potential benefits and challenges associated with implementing demand response strategies. The findings of the studies will contribute to a better understanding on the compensation structure of current Direct Load Control programs and the level of participation required for it to be effectively integrated into the power system, promoting a more reliable and sustainable future.

Demand Side Management (DSM) is a term coined to describe the control of demand to optimize energy usage in a way beneficial to both users and utilities. There are different technologies and policies designed for DSM, and one of them is Direct Load Control (DLC) which refers to a utility directly controlling demand. In this thesis, an analysis of DLC for air conditioning units during summer in the Indian state of Karnataka is carried out. A new control mechanism is proposed, based on the local generation capacity, which seems to reduce until the monsoon season arrives, as the lack of rain reduces water levels in hydro power plants. The direct load control of ACs using this mechanism allows for 0.88% energy savings in a state where only around 5% of all households seem to have AC units and electricity is available for only 37% of the population. The mentioned savings could have significant economic impacts for both users and utilities, reduce the fossil-based energy consumption and/or improve issues such as blackouts and the lack of capacity to cover peak loads. Continuous improvements in both energy access and the economic conditions of the state will lead to a larger number of AC’s installed, meaning that a mechanism that reduces AC consumption could be of great utility for all stakeholders of the electricity sector. / Styrning av Efterfrågan (från Demand Side Management, DSM) är ett begrepp som myntats för att beskriva konsumtionskontroll för att optimera energianvändning på ett sätt som är fördelaktigt för både användare och samhällsservice. Det finns olika tekniker och taktiker utformade för DSM, och en av dem är Direkt Belastningskontroll (från Direct Load Control, DLC), vilket är ett verktyg för att direkt kontrollera efterfrågan. I denna avhandling genomförs en analys av DLC för luftkonditioneringsenheter under sommaren i den indiska delstaten Karnataka. En ny kontrollmekanism föreslås baserat på den lokala produktionskapaciteten, som verkar minska fram tills monsunsäsongen, eftersom bristen på regn minskar vattennivån i vattenkraftverk. Den direkta belastningskontrollen hos luftkonditioneringsenheter med denna mekanism möjliggör en energibesparing på 0,88% i ett stadium där endast cirka 5% av alla hushåll tycks ha luftkonditionering och elektricitet är tillgängligt för endast 37% av befolkningen. De nämnda besparingarna kan ha betydande ekonomiska effekter för både användare och samhällsservice, minska den fossilbaserade energiförbrukningen och/eller förbättra problem som strömavbrott och brist på kapacitet för att täcka toppbelastningar. Ständiga förbättringar av både energitillgång och de ekonomiska förhållandena i staten kommer att leda till att ett större antal luftkonditioneringsenheter installeras, vilket innebär att en mekanism som minskar konsumtionen hos luftkonditioneringsenheterna kan vara till stor nytta för alla intressenter i elsektorn.

Smarta elnät nämns ofta som ett sätt att hantera ökad elektrifiering av transporter och industri och en växande andel väderberoende elproduktion. Ett syfte med det här examensarbetet är att studera möjliga följder för lokalnätägaren Sala-Heby Energi Elnät AB, om småhuskunder använder smart styrning av elvärmesystem för att sänka sina elnätsfakturor. Med rådande tariffmodell betalar småhusägaren för den gångna månadens tre högsta timmedeleffekter kl. 07 till 19 helgfria vardagar. Hur nätägaren påverkas av styrning, är en central fråga för projektet Auto-Flex, som startade i januari 2021. Uppsatsens litteraturstudie pekar på att efterfrågeflexibilitet kan ge olika följder för elnätet och för elmarknadens parter, beroende på vilka incitament som används för att skapa ett flexibelt beteende. Med efterfrågeflexibilitet avses här kunders förmåga att flytta eller minska sitt lastuttag från elnätet. I det här examensarbetet utförs beräkningar i Excel för att undersöka följderna av laststyrning och analysen utgår från historiska elmätardata från ca 140 anonymiserade hushållskunder samt från data över effektuttag från regionnätet. Beräkningarna visar att styrning som gynnar kunden ekonomiskt blir en förlustaffärför Sala-Heby Energi Elnät AB, trots sänkt effektuttag från regionnätet. Det gäller, i de flesta fall, även när extra styrning läggs till under timmar då effektuttaget från regionnätet är högt. Resultaten bygger på förenklade beräkningar, där ingen hänsyn tagits till hur effektsänkning av elvärmesystem samspelar med väderfaktorer eller med styrningens varaktighet. Samma effektsänkning har antagits vid varje styrtillfälle och för alla hushåll. Ett andra syfte med det här examensarbetet är att undersöka hur huvudaktörerna i projektet Auto-Flex ser på säkerhetsfrågor i samband utvecklingen mot ett mer IT-beroende elnät. Därför genomfördes två semistrukturerade intervjuer, med integritet, leveranssäkerhet och affärsmodeller som teman. Intervjupersonerna lyfte inga allvarliga hot kopplade till projektet Auto-Flex. Samtidigt kunde de se teoretiska risker med storskalig smart laststyrning i kapacitetssvaga elnät. Mer forskning behövs om smarta elnät och hållbarhet. Kopplingen mellan incitament till flexibilitet och flexibilitetens inverkan på elnätet, hur sårbarheter kopplade till informationsteknik påverkar elnätets leveranssäkerhet och hur smartteknik står sig miljömässigt i förhållande till nätutbyggnad är tre intressanta områden. / By facilitating demand side management, smart grids are expected to smooth the way for a transition to cleaner electric energy. This bachelor’s thesis aims to analyse the consequences for a distribution system operator (DSO) of direct load control,which is set to minimize the consumer’s bill for power transmission. This is also a central theme in the recently initiated Auto-Flex smart grid project, with main actors DSO Sala-Heby Energi Elnät AB and tech company Ngenic AB. The included study of scientific articles points out that the impact of demand response on electric grids is largely determined by incentives used to harvest demand side flexibility. In this thesis, the consequences of direct load control are examined by means of simplified calculations in Excel, analysing electric meter data from approximately 140 anonymous customers, in addition to power supply data for the township connection to the regional distribution grid. If customers with electric heating systems would install load control equipment to lower their power transmission bills, the local DSO would experience reduced revenues. The reduction in revenues would not be offset economically by curbed peak power transmission from the regional grid, according to the executed calculations. Even if extra load control was added in peak days, the net economic result for the local DSO would still be negative in most of the studied cases. Individual characteristics of heating systems and buildings have not been accounted for in this study, neither has the correlation between load reduction, outdoor temperature and load control duration. A second aim of this thesis is to examine attitudes of the main actors in the Auto-Flex project on confidentiality, reliability and demand side management business models in relation to the development of smart grids. Through semi-structured interviews, it was revealed that neither chief executive officer of Ngenic AB, Björn Berg, nor chief grid officer of Sala-Heby Energi Elnät AB, Per-Erik Johansson, see any severe threats against customer confidentiality, nor against power reliability, when implementing direct load control within the project. However, it was pointed out that an electric grid with very low physical capacity could become vulnerable to load control failures. Further examination of the connection between business models, power reliability, and cyber security are crucial to ensure socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable smart grids.

L’Internet des Objets (IdO) et le déploiement des équipements connectés permettent la mise en place de solutions de Gestion Active de la Demande(GAD) avancées. En effet, il devient possible d’avoir plus de visibilité et un contrôle fin sur différents équipements qui consomment, stockent ou produisent de l’énergie dans une maison. Dans cette thèse, nous considérons des solutions ayant la capacité de produire des décisions de contrôle direct à différents niveaux de granularité en fonction des variables mesurées dans les habitats. Le contrôle est basé sur une optimisation d’utilité perçue. Des fonctions utilité sont définies à travers une approche générique qui considère la flexibilité de la charge et l’impact des décisions de contrôle sur les utilisateurs. L’approche proposée n’impose pas de restrictions sur le type des équipements contrôlés ni sur la granularité des décisions de contrôle. Ceci permet un contrôle joint d’équipements hétérogènes. Nous considérons trois types d’architectures de contrôle à savoir: des solutions centralisées, partiellement distribuées et entièrement distribuées. Ces architectures diffèrent dans la distribution de la prise de décision entre les entités impliquées dans le contrôle et les données qui sont mis à disposition de ces entités. L’analyse numérique montre les compromis des solutions proposées du point de vue de la performance, de l’extensibilité et de la complexité. / The Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm brings an opportunity for advanced Demand Response (DR) solutions. Indeed, it enables visibility and control on the various appliances that may consume, store or generate energy within a home. In this thesis, we consider solutions having the capability to produce direct control decisions at different granularities based on variables measured at homes. Control schemes are driven by an optimization based on utility functions. These functions are defined based on a generic approach that considers load’s flexibility and the impact of control decisions on users. The proposed approach does not impose any restrictions on the type of controlled appliances nor on the granularity of control decisions. This enables joint control of heterogeneous loads. We consider three types of control architectures, namely centralized, partially distributed and fully distributed solutions. Schemes based on these architectures differ in the distribution of decision making among entities involved in the control and data that is made available to these entities. Numerical analysis shows the trade-offs of proposed solutions from a performance, scalability and complexity perspectives.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:24:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2005-08-12Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:11:55Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 andreoli_al_me_bauru.pdf: 2837768 bytes, checksum: 899d0f484921dccf16d7027e336d500b (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / O presente trabalho é o resultado de uma pesquisa aplicada ao desenvolvimento de um equipamento eletrônico microprocessado destinado ao controle de demanda máxima e de fator de potência em instalações elétricas. Motivado pelo aumento na demanda e pela limitação nos recursos do sistema elétrico interligado, o uso de equipamentos que permitam o gerenciamento de energia pelo lado da demanda tem se difundido com grande velocidade, pois é o método de racionalização do uso de energia elétrica que apresenta boa relação entre custo e benefícios, trazendo resultados favoráveis em curto prazo. O uso de controladores de demanda máxima e de fator de potência nas instalações atendidas por contratos de fornecimento horo-sazonal é uma forma de garantir que o sistema não ultrapasse os limites contratuais, que resultam em aplicação de multa, e também um modo de se operar o sistema dentro de parâmetros conhecidos evitando perdas excessivas, racionalizando a utilização de seus componentes. Embora não exista regulamentação relacionada a tarifas diferenciadas de energia elétrica para unidades atendidas em baixa tensão, a utilização de controladores de demanda máxima e fator de potência pode trazer à esta classe de consumidores os benefícios do gerenciamento de energia, reduzindo perdas e em muitos casos permitindo a diminuição no valor da fatura de energia. Pelo ponto de vista do fornecimento, a existência de controle de demanda nas unidades consumidoras permite um melhor planejamento e maior aproveitamento do sistema de distribuição, minimizando investimentos no setor. Para aplicação em unidades consumidoras de porte reduzido, os equipamentos de gerenciamento de energia disponíveis no mercado apresentam dois inconvenientes principais: o excesso de recursos que na maioria dos casos não é explorado em sua... / The present work is the result of an applied research to the development of an electronic microcontrolled device used in the control of maximum demand and power factor in small and medium range electric facilities. Stimulated by the increase of demand and limitation of electrical resources of the interconnected system, the use of demand-side energy management devices was increased, since this method is the better mode to provide the energy rationalization, good cost-benefits relationship and presents best results in a short time interval after its implementation. The use of maximum demand and power factor controllers in facilities with differential billing fares is a method of guarantee that the agreement limits will not be exceeded, resulting in penalties, and also a safe mode of system operation, reducing losses and rationalizing the use their components. Although don't exist regulation related to the differential billing applied to low-voltage supplied consumers, the use of maximum demand and power factor controllers can bring to this consumers category the benefits of energy management, reducing losses and in most cases decreasing the energy billing. In the supply point of view, the demand control in consumers units allow the better planning and the best utilization of distribution system, minimizing the investment in this sector. For application in small-size consumer units, the commercially available energy management devices have two inconvenient: excess of resources, in the most cases sub-utilized which increase the price, and the need of a special external energy meter or energy transducer, uncommon in this class of facility. The device developed in this research have an electronic energy measurement system and associated signals independent of the supplier's meter, and also... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-11-07T10:48:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 victorhugonetocortez.pdf: 3818044 bytes, checksum: a304eae89e97b941ff18b7233b80be9e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-11-09T14:32:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 victorhugonetocortez.pdf: 3818044 bytes, checksum: a304eae89e97b941ff18b7233b80be9e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-09T14:32:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 victorhugonetocortez.pdf: 3818044 bytes, checksum: a304eae89e97b941ff18b7233b80be9e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017 / Grandes indústrias e parques industriais estão entre os maiores consumidores de energia de um país e sendo assim é interessante do ponto de vista do sistema elétrico fazer com que a energia utilizada por estes consumidores seja consumida de forma eficiente. Também é do interesse dos consumidores buscar a otimização do uso da energia, principalmente pela ótica da economia que pode ser alcançada nos custos e tarifas com energia elétrica. Uma das maneiras de se atingir este objetivo é através do Gerenciamento pelo Lado da Demanda onde se pode remanejar cargas de acordo com um objetivo preestabelecido, como por exemplo, a diminuição de custos com energia elétrica. Neste trabalho é apresentada uma metodologia para realocação de cargas em sistemas industriais. Esta metodologia utiliza cargas que estejam dentro de programas de controle direto de carga e busca encontrar um horário de alocação que traga a maior economia. A realocação é realizada através do uso de um algoritmo genético que tem como resultado final o horário otimizado de alocação de todas as cargas e consequentemente a curva de carga resultante. / Large industries and industrial parks are one of the largest energy consumers in a country and therefore it is essential to encourage that the energy consumed by those industries is done so efficiently. It is also in the best interest of the consumers to encourage those changes, especially regarding the economy that can be achieved by the embedded costs and tariffs. One of the ways to achieve this goal is to use a demand side management technique where loads can be shifted according to pre-determined objectives such as reducing the costs with electrical energy. In this thesis, a methodology for load shifting is presented for use in industrial systems. This methodology utilizes loads that are in direct load control programmes and aims to find the connection time that brings the most economical benefit. The reallocation is realized through the use of a genetic algorithm that has the best allocated time and load curve as a result.

Abstract This thesis includes three studies on household preferences for energy goods and services. The first study examines determinants of households’ heating system choices using a choice experiment. The choice sets include six main heating alternatives (district heating, ground heat pump, exhaust air heat pump, solid wood boiler, wood pellet boiler, and electric storage heating) that are described by five attributes (supplementary heating systems, investment costs, operating costs, comfort of use and environmental friendliness). The results imply that hybrid heating appears to be accepted among households. The results also reveal differing preferences for the main heating alternatives and show that they are affected by demographic characteristics. The studied attributes also play a significant role when heating systems are being chosen. The second study is a methodological one that extends the analysis of the first study. The second study explores the effect of perceived choice complexity on the randomness of choices in choice experiments. The study investigates how different self-evaluated factors of choice complexity affect mean scale and scale variance. The findings suggest that perceived choice complexity has a systematic impact on the parameters of econometric models of choice. However, differences exist between alternative self-evaluated complexity-related covariates. The results indicate that individuals who report that answering the choice tasks is more difficult have less deterministic choices. Perceptions of the realism of home heating choice options also affect scale and scale variance. The third study utilizes the choice experiment to analyze households’ willingness to participate in demand side flexibility. The study examines whether individuals are willing to time their electricity usage and heating; whether they are interested in dynamic pricing contracts such as real-time pricing, two-rate tariffs, or power-based tariffs; and how emissions reductions affect their choices. The results indicate that households’ sensitivity to restrictions in electricity usage is much stronger than their sensitivity to restrictions in heating. Households also require compensation to choose real-time pricing over fixed fees. The findings suggest that room may exist for new dynamic electricity distribution contracts, such as power-based tariffs, in the market. Other value-creating elements besides monetary compensation also exist that could incentivize households to offer demand side flexibility because households value power system level reductions in CO2 emissions. / Tiivistelmä Tämä väitöskirja koostuu kolmesta tutkimuksesta, joissa tarkastellaan kotitalouksien preferenssejä energiahyödykkeitä ja -palveluita kohtaan. Ensimmäinen tutkimus keskittyy kotitalouksien lämmitysjärjestelmävalintoihin ja niitä määrittäviin tekijöihin. Tämä tutkimus on tehty valintakoemenetelmällä, jonka valintatilanteet sisältävät kuusi eri päälämmitysjärjestelmävaihtoehtoa (kaukolämpö, maalämpöpumppu, puulämmitys, pellettilämmitys, varaava sähkölämmitys ja poistoilmalämpöpumppu). Päälämmitysjärjestelmiä kuvataan viiden ominaisuuden avulla, jotka ovat tukilämmitysjärjestelmä, investointikustannukset, käyttökustannukset, käyttömukavuus ja ympäristöystävällisyys. Tulosten mukaan kotitalouksien preferenssit päälämmitysjärjestelmävaihtoehtoja kohtaan ovat vaihtelevia. Valintaan vaikuttavat sekä tarkastellut ominaisuudet että kotitalouden demografiset tekijät. Tulokset myös paljastavat, että kotitaloudet suhtautuvat myönteisesti hybridilämmitykseen. Toinen tutkimus on menetelmällinen, missä hyödynnetään ensimmäisen tutkimuksen aineistoa. Tämä tutkimus keskittyy yksilöiden kokeman vastaamisen vaikeuden vaikutuksiin valintakoemenetelmässä. Vastaamisen epätarkkuus tunnistetaan valintakoemenetelmässä skaalan ja skaalavarianssin avulla. Tutkimus tarkastelee, kuinka itsearvioidut vastaamisen vaikeutta mittaavat tekijät vaikuttavat keskimääräiseen skaalaan ja skaalavarianssiin valintojen ekonometrisissa malleissa. Tulosten mukaan koettu vastaamisen vaikeus vaikuttaa systemaattisesti ekonometrisen valintamallin parametreihin. Vastaamisen vaikeutta mittaavien tekijöiden välillä on kuitenkin eroja. Tuloksien perusteella vastaajat, jotka kokevat valintatilanteisiin vastaamisen keskimääräistä vaikeampana, tekevät satunnaisempia valintoja. Myös valintatilanteiden koettu realistisuus vaikuttaa skaalaan ja skaalavarianssiin. Kolmannessa tutkimuksessa arvioidaan kotitalouksien halukkuutta osallistua energian kysyntäjoustoon valintakoemenetelmällä. Tämä tutkimus selvittää ovatko kotitaloudet halukkaitta siirtämään sähkönkulutusta ja lämmitystä, ja kuinka kiinnostuneita he ovat dynaamisista sähkön hinnoittelusopimuksista kuten pörssisähkösopimuksesta, yösähkösopimuksesta tai tehoperusteisesta sopimuksesta. Lisäksi tutkitaan vaikuttavatko järjestelmätason päästövähennykset kotitalouksien valintoihin. Tulosten perusteella kotitaloudet suhtautuvat sähkönkulutuksen rajoituksiin selvästi negatiivisemmin kuin lämmityksen rajoituksiin. Kotitaloudet myös vaativat rahallista korvausta valitakseen pörssisähkösopimuksen kiinteähintaisen sopimuksen sijaan. Tulosten mukaan markkinoilla voisi olla tilaa uudenlaisille sopimustyypeille, kuten tehoperusteiselle vaihtoehdolle. Tulokset osoittavat, että kotitaloudet arvostavat järjestelmätason hiilidioksidipäästövähennyksiä. Täten rahallisen korvauksen lisäksi on olemassa myös muita arvoa luovia tekijöitä lisätä kotitalouksien osallistumista kysyntäjoustoon.