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Enfraquecimento do dólar flexível em 2001-2007: comparação com 1974-1980, possibilidades de ajuste pela desvalorização, riscos de ruptura ou risco de um novo "choque de Volcker"Lee, Yim Kyu 30 September 2008 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2008-09-30 / This dissertation analyses the period of weakening of the U.S. dollar in the 2001-2007
period and the three possible scenarios: (i) the maintenance and adjustment of the freefloating
currency system, through the prolonged effects of the devaluation of the dollar, (ii)
the protracted decline of the dollar as world currency, with the transfer of all or part of its role
to another currency, with the Euro as most likely candidate, (iii) U.S. reaction in the style of
the Volcker s shock in 1979-1980. It discusses whether there are limits to the setting in which
the dollar, in the role of main reserve currency, is issued in large quantities to cover the U.S.
current account deficits and whether the world will keep financing these deficits and paying
significant margins of contribution to the United States, the so-called "exorbitant privilege" of
the country issuing the world currency. The dissertation studies the formation of the freefloating
dollar standard after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971-73 and the
stages of its development, highlighting the period from 2001, which was marked by a sharp
decline in the value the dollar. We draw attention to the similarities with the period of
weakening of 1974-1980, which led to strong reaction from the United States with the high
increase of interest and the imposition of credit controls, a process known as "Volcker s
shock" / A dissertação analisa o período de enfraquecimento do dólar nos anos 2001-2007 e as
alternativas colocadas no momento: (i) sustentação e ajustamento do sistema dólar flexível,
por meio dos efeitos da desvalorização prolongada do dólar; (ii) declínio prolongado da
posição do dólar como moeda mundial, com a transferência total ou parcial de seu papel para
outra moeda, tendo o euro como candidato óbvio; (iii) reação dos EUA no estilo do choque de
Volcker de 1979-1980. Discute-se se há limites para a configuração em que o dólar, no papel
de moeda de reserva principal, é emitido em grandes quantidades em razão dos déficits em
transações correntes norte-americanos, e se o mundo manterá o financiamento destes déficits
pagando uma margem de contribuição expressiva para os Estados Unidos, o chamado
"privilégio exorbitante" do país emissor da moeda mundial. A dissertação analisa a formação
do padrão dólar-flexível, após a ruptura do sistema de Bretton Woods, em 1971-73, e as
etapas de seu desenvolvimento, com destaque para os anos recentes, a partir de 2001, período
marcado pelo declínio acentuado do valor do dólar. Destacam-se as semelhanças com o
período de enfraquecimento de 1974-1980 que conduziu à forte reação dos Estados Unidos,
com a forte elevação dos juros e a imposição de controles de crédito, processo conhecido
como "choques de Volcker"
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美元本位制下福利與貨幣政策分析 / Welfare and Monetary Policy under a Dollar Standard賴建男 Unknown Date (has links)
美元在世界上具有獨特的地位,大部份在國際上貿易的商品都以美元做為訂價,Devereux, Shi and Xu (2007)依此情況而把美元稱為國際上的參考貨幣(reference currency)。本文即以美元為參考貨幣的情況,建立一兩國動態隨機一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型來探討在世界經濟體系中,有參考貨幣時,貨幣衝擊對兩國經濟體系的影響,以及當面對外在環境衝擊時,兩國政府應該如何選擇適當的貨幣政策。結果發現,擁有參考貨幣的國家發生貨幣衝擊時,對兩國的產出都有正面的影響,然而非參考貨幣國家發生貨幣衝擊時,反而有以鄰為壑(beggar-thy-neighbor)的效果。而在面臨外在環境衝擊時,選擇穩定通貨膨脹的利率法則對兩國而言都會帶來較好的福利效果。 / The U.S. dollars in the world possess a unique position; the majority of the international tradable goods are priced in the U.S. dollars. This paper sets up a two-country DSGE model where the U.S. dollar serves as the reference currency to quantitatively examine the impacts caused by the monetary shocks, as well as how both governments should adopt their monetary policies when facing external shocks. The results show that there are positive impacts on both countries' outputs when a monetary shock occurs in the reference-currency-holding country; Conversely, there is a beggar-thy-neighbor effect when the shock takes place in the other country. In general, the inflation-targeting interest rate rule leads to greater welfare in both countries.
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Réformes évolutionnistes du système des paiements internationaux : la création de systèmes des paiements supranationaux, une nécessité au regard des défauts du régime monétaire international actuel / Evolutionary reform of international payment systemsFadhlaoui, Hinda 06 December 2012 (has links)
Au plus fort de la crise, le régime monétaire international se révèle être impuissantlorsqu’il s’agit de limiter la volatilité excessive des taux de change, l’ampleur desdéséquilibres des balances de paiements courants, le développement d'une spéculationeffrénée sur les marchés des changes et l’asymétrie entre pays en excédent et pays endéficit. Cette thèse, qui a eu le mérite d’ouvrir des pistes nouvelles dans lacompréhension des rapports complexes entre les déséquilibres mondiaux et le régimeactuel, a montré que ces déséquilibres sont intrinsèquement rattachés aux défaillances dela structure monétaire internationale. Pour interrompre cette dynamique qui détériore lesdéséquilibres mondiaux, nous proposons que le régime tende vers un système centraliséavec la création d’une monnaie internationale et d’une chambre de compensation. Cettethèse, qui réactualise le plan Keynes, inclut également des dispositions statutaires visant àajuster automatiquement les dettes extérieures aux capacités de paiement des pays. Bienque cette réforme soit une avancée, cette réflexion n’occulte pas les progrès qu’il reste àfaire pour résorber les déséquilibres extérieurs. Pour améliorer l’efficacité et la pérennitédu système des paiements internationaux, il est utile de renforcer la coopération desbanques centrales, notamment dans un contexte marqué par les crises d’endettementextérieur. Dans ce sens, cette thèse montre les opportunités qu’offre la constitution dezones monétaires régionales intégrées dans une union monétaire internationale / At the height of the crisis, the international monetary system is powerless to reduce theinstability of exchange rates, the imbalance of the current account of balance ofpayments, instability of exchange rates and the development of speculation in financialmarkets the and the asymmetry between net exporters countries and net deficits countries.This thesis, which had the merit of opening new tracks in order to understand thecomplex relationships between global imbalances and the actual system, showed thatthese global imbalances are intrinsically linked to the failures of the internationalmonetary structure. To stop the deterioration of global imbalances, we propose that thesystem turns towards an international system payment with the creation of aninternational currency and a clearing house. This thesis, which reactualizes the KeynesPlan, also includes statutory dispositions for automatically adjusting the external debt tothe capacities payment of countries. Although this reform is a step forward, we don’t hidethe progress that can be done to reduce external imbalances. To increase the efficiencyand sustainability of the international payments system, it is useful to boost thecooperation between central banks, particularly in a context marked by the external debtcrises. In this sense, this thesis shows the opportunities which offered the creation ofregional monetary zones which are integrated in a monetary union international
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