On most tropical volcanic islands the risk for soil erosion is enhanced due to a complex topography, high intensity rainfall and the exploitation of land for agriculture. Mauritius is a typical maritime tropical volcanic island with a distinct elevated interior. Rainfall is dominated by tropical weather systems and trade winds and the island is under intensive cultivation. Rainfall depth, duration, intensity, kinetic energy and erosivity were analysed for 385 erosive rainfall events at five locations over a five year period (2004 to 2008) on the island of Mauritius. Two stations located on the west coast and three stations sited on the Central Plateau above 550 m a.s.l. are used to provide detailed rainfall data at six minute intervals. Erosive storm events, defined here as a total rainfall exceeding 12.5 mm and a maximum 6-minute intensity exceeding 25 mm/hour, are found to differ markedly between the coastal lowlands and the elevated interior with regards to the frequency, the total rainfall generated, the duration, total kinetic energy and total erosivity of individual events. However, mean kinetic energy, mean and maximum rainfall erosivity (EI30) and maximum intensities (I30) from individual erosive events do not show this distinct differentiation. Erosivity measured during summer exceeds that recorded in winter, but the data indicate that large percentages of winter rainfall on Mauritius are defined as erosive and non-tropical cyclone rainfall can pose a substantial erosion risk. In this maritime tropical environment with its elevated interior, soil erosion risk occurs from storm scale to synoptic scale rainfall events and extreme events generate the bulk of the erosivity. Findings show that using rainfall records at an event scale within soil erosion risk assessments on tropical islands with a complex topography will increase the effectiveness of erosivity estimates

(None) Technical Summary of Thesis: The topic of my thesis is currency crisis. Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country’s currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.

Presently, owners are interested in evaluating the feasibility of investing in the construction of new building projects based on cost and time constraints. They need to therefore have an idea about the project construction costs, the time required to finish construction of a project in its conceptual phase, and about the implementation of feasibility study. Because due to associated risks, construction cost estimates and schedules are vital to any project. The research’s objective is to develop a methodology that can be used to create an integrated computer model that helps owners and designers generate construction cost estimates, and derive the baseline schedule for any proposed building project at its feasibility stage. All the relevant data used within the model is collected from the literature and is stored in comprehensive databases designed for this purpose. The data is based on 2011 RSMeans publications and consist of around 4,000 previously constructed projects. The model is developed in a Microsoft environment using Microsoft Excel 2007 and Microsoft Project 2007. This model uses deterministic and stochastic approaches to execute all necessary calculations for the conceptual cost estimate and baseline schedule. A deterministic approach relies on realistic data while a stochastic one relies on incorporating the uncertainty and risk available in calculating the cost and duration of any construction building project. The model is user friendly, flexible and executes all the necessary calculations quickly. The successful development of the model would help owners and investors identify the cost and baseline schedule of proposed projects at the early stages of the project life, so that they have an idea of the budget required for construction and the time needed to recover their investment.

This thesis aims to explain how the involvement of secondary parties affect the duration of intrastate armedconflicts. It argues that the acquisition of secondary support in favor of rebel groups is likely to lead to an extended duration of intrastate armed conflict. By granting a relatively weaker rebel group secondary support, a secondary party ought to directly alter the balance of power and capabilities in benefit for the rebels. The secondary party could thereby be able to level the balance of capabilities between a government and a rebel group, creating a situation in which the, at first, stronger government now have to face a rebel group capable of surviving longer. Using a structured focused comparison on two cases, the results find secondary support in the form of funding or economic support given to relatively weak rebels to be an important influence on extending the duration of intrastate armed conflicts. Nonetheless, further research might have to be made in order to fully understand the even more detailed mechanisms behind the strong influences of economic secondary support on conflict duration.

Attempts to control various aspects of response requirements and sample viewing durations of sample stimuli show that an increase in both facilitates acquisition of conditional discriminations. Despite these attempts, few empirical data exist that demonstrate the relative contributions of both response- and time-dependent schedules. In addition, viewing opportunities of sample stimuli are present outside of the researchers' control, allowing for 'unauthorized sample viewing.' This study employed a titrating delay matching-to-sample procedure to systematically control various aspects of response requirements and sample viewing durations to independently assess their relative contributions towards conditional discrimination performance. Four pigeons worked on a titrating delay matching-to-sample procedure in which the delay between sample offset and comparison onset continuously adjusted as a function of the accuracy of the pigeons' choices. Results show sample viewing durations contribute most toward conditional discrimination performance. The data show 'unauthorized sample viewing' improved acquisition of conditional discriminations and should be a consideration in design of future research.

A elaboração deste estudo baseia-se em analisar, a partir de uma proposta de educação física escolar com foco no desenvolvimento de atividades esportivas, os níveis de intensidade da atividade física (AF) dos escolares nas aulas de educação física. A pesquisa se caracteriza como um estudo de caso institucional. A amostra do tipo aleatória estratificada constante foi composta de 206 crianças, sendo avaliados 112 meninos e 94 meninas, observados durante as aulas conforme os grupos de idade e sexo. Foram avaliados 72 aulas sendo realizadas 386 avaliações (não indivíduos) por meio de GPS da marca GARMIN, modelo 310XT, com frequencímetro. A porcentagem de tempo em que a criança realizava AF nas diferentes faixas de frequência cardíaca foi estabelecida conforme a proposta de pontos de corte sugerido por Armstrong (1998). Para a apresentação dos resultados utilizamos estatística descritiva identificando a proporção de tempo em AF nos diferentes níveis de intensidade, tempo de deslocamento ativo, distância percorrida e gasto energético. Realizamos um estudo exploratório com o objetivo de avaliar os pressupostos essenciais da análise paramétrica. Após a inspeção, utilizamos médias e desvio-padrão para a descrição dos dados. Quanto ao estudo comparativo entre os sexos nas variáveis utilizamos o teste “t” de student para amostras independentes. Para a avaliação das diferenças entre as categorias de idades, nos dois sexos, recorremos a ANOVA seguida de post hoc de Bonferroni. Os resultados indicaram comportamentos distintos entre rapazes e moças quanto ao nível de intensidade da prática de AF realizada nas aulas de educação física. Observamos que a proporção média de tempo dos rapazes engajados na realização de AF vigorosa aumenta ao longo das idades, enquanto as moças apresentam uma redução da prática de AF nesta intensidade ao longo do tempo. Quando realizamos o somatório da prática de AF moderada e vigorosa (AFMV), observamos que a proporção média é semelhante entre rapazes e moças. Cerca de 2/3 da aula de educação física é realizada nestas faixas de intensidade cumprindo com as recomendações de pelo menos 50% das aulas nesta faixa de intensidade. As moças apresentam valores próximos dos rapazes para a prática de AFMV, mas realizam suas atividades de forma predominantemente moderada e reduzem o tempo de prática de AFMV ao longo do tempo. Além disso, os resultados indicaram que a prática de algumas modalidades esportivas exigem mais do que outras. O voleibol foi a modalidade esportiva que menos exigiu dos escolares quanto ao nível de AF vigorosa, ao passo que as exigências maiores foram encontradas nas modalidades ciclismo, futebol e futsal. Quanto ao tempo semanal engajado em práticas de AFMV, somente com as aulas de educação física os rapazes cumprem com cerca de 2/3 da carga horária semanal recomendada (>300 minutos por semana) e, as moças, com valores inferiores ao apresentado pelos rapazes, cumprem com cerca de 50% da carga horária sugerida. Concluímos que a proposta para a educação física escolar apresenta níveis de intensidade e duração satisfatórios quanto ao necessário para a promoção da saúde, principalmente quando do somatório do tempo de AF realizada durante a semana. / The formulation of this study is based on analyzing from a propose physical education focusing on the development of atletics activities, the intensity levels of physical activity (PA) on the Student is in physical education classes. The research is characterized as an institucional case sttudy. The type stratified random sample of constant 206 was compused of children being evaluated 112 boys and 94 girls, during the lessons, according to age groups and gender. Were evaluated in 72 classes 386 reviews being performed (not indivuduals) via GPA GARMIN, model 3010 XT, with frequency conter. The percentage of time that the child performed PA in different ranges of heart rate was established conform the proposed cut off points suggested by Armestrong (1998). For the apresentation results, we used descriptive statistics to identify the proportion of time in PA in diferent intensity, activy commung time, distance and energy expenditure. Conducted an exploratory study to evaluate the essencial assumptions of parametric anlysis. After the inspection, we use mean and standard deviation for the data description. Regarding the study comparing the sexes in the variables, use the “t” Student test for independente samples. For the evoluation of diferences between age categories in both sexes, we used ANOVA followed by Pos-Hoc Bonferroni. The results indicate diferente behaviors between boys and girls regarding level intensity of PA. Performed in pratice of PA held in physical education classes. We observed that the average proportion of time the boys engaged in perfoming vigorous PA, increases throughout the ages, while girls showed a reduction in the pratice of this PA intensity over time. When we perform the sum of practing moderate na vigorou PA (PAMV), we observed that the average ratio is similar between boys and girls. About two-thirds of the physical education class is held in these intensity ranges complyng with the recommendations of at least 50% of classes in this intensity range. Girls showed the boys next values for practice PAMV but perform their activities predominantly moderate and shorten time to practicing PAMV over time. Furthermore, the results indicate that the practice of some sports require more than others. The volleyball was the sport that demanded less of the students regarding their level of vigorous PA, where as the highest demands found in rules:cycling, soccer and futsal. As for the weekly time engaged in practies PAMV, amounts only with the physical education classes the boys weet with about two thirds of weekly recommended (>300 minutes per week) and the girls, twith lower values than shown by the boys, meet about 50% of the worklord suggested. We conclude that the proposal for school physical education has levels of intensity and duration as to be satisfactory for health promotion, particularly when the sum of the time of PA perfomed during the week level.

This study examined the relationship between lung capacity, speech volume and duration of utterances. 8 adult subjects, 4 males and 4 females (24-36 yrs), participated. By breathing into a digital spirometer, lung capacities such as Vital Capacity (VC) and Inspirational Capacity (IC) were estimated. Respiratory movements were measured using Respiratory Inductance Plethysmography (RIP), and these respiratory movements were calibrated in litres using the spirometer. The proportion of lung capacity used for speech was estimated from the calibrated RIP signals during reading of a nonsense text without punctuation marks. This proportion was defined as the median volume of exhaled air per utterance (SV) (in litres) during text reading, divided by the speaker’s VC (SV/VC). Utterance durations (UD) and Respiratory Rates (RR) were estimated from acoustic recordings of the text readings as well as the RIP signals, displayed in Praat. This allowed investigating the relationships between lung capacity, respiratory rate, utterance durations as well as the proportion of lung capacity used for speech. Put differently, the question was whether people with larger lungs speak in longer utterances and inhale less frequently, as well as whether people with smaller lungs use a relatively larger proportion of their lung capacity for speaking. Additionally, where SV initiated (SVIN) and terminated (SVTER) within VC was calculated based on the RIP signals. There were no significant relationships between VC and UD or RR. In addition, there was no significant relationship between SV/VC and VC. SVIN ranged from 43%-71% and SVTER ranged from 17%-55%. The results indicate no relationship between VC and UD or RR nor that people with a smaller VC use more of it for speech. The range of SV within VC suggest that people maintain a fairly relaxed state with regards to muscle pressure.

Le processus d'approvisionnement d'une machine virtuelle (VM) ou d'un conteneur est une succession de trois étapes complexes : (i) la phase d’ordonnancement qui consiste à affecter la VM / le conteneur sur un nœud de calcul ; (ii) le transfert de l'image disque associée vers ce nœud de calcul ; (iii) et l'exécution du processus de démarrage (généralement connu sous le terme « boot »). En fonction des besoins de l’application virtualisée et de l’état de la plate-forme, chacune de ces trois phases peut avoir une durée plus ou moins importante. Si de nombreux travaux se sont concentrés sur l’optimisation des deux premières étapes, la littérature couvre que partiellement les défis liés à la dernière. Cela est surprenant car des études ont montré que le temps de démarrage peut atteindre l’ordre de la minute dans certaines conditions. Durée que nous avons confirmée grâce à une étude préliminaire visant à quantifier le temps de démarrage, notamment dans des scénarios où le ratio de consolidation est élevé. Pour comprendre les principales raisons de ces durées, nous avons effectué en jusqu'à 15000 expériences au dessus de l’infrastructure Grid5000. Chacune de ces expériences a eu pour but d’étudier le processus de démarrage selon différentes conditions environnementales. Les résultats ont montré que les opérations d'entrée/sorties liées au processus de démarrage étaient les plus coûteuses. Afin d’y remédier, nous défendons dans cette thèse la conception d'un mécanisme dédié permettant de limiter le nombre d’entrées/sorties générées lors du processus de démarrage. Nous démontrons la pertinence de notre proposition en évaluant le prototype YOLO (You Only LoadOnce). Grâce à YOLO, la durée de démarrage peut être accélérée de 2 à 13 fois pour les VM et jusqu’à 2 fois pour les conteneurs. Au delà de l’aspect performance, il convient de noter que la façon dont YOLO a été conçu permet de l’appliquer à d’autres types de technologies devirtualisation / conteneurisation. / The provisioning process of a VirtualMachine (VM) or a container is a succession of three complex stages : (i) scheduling theVM / Container to an appropriate compute node ;(ii) transferring the VM / Container image to that compute node from a repository ; (iii) and finally performing the VM / Container boot process. Depending on the properties of the client’s request and the status of the platform, each of these three phases can impact the total duration of the provisioning operation. While many works focused on optimizing the two first stages, only few works investigated the impact of the boot duration. This comes to us as a surprise as a preliminary study we conducted showed the boot time of a VM / Container can last up to a few minutes in high consolidated scenarios. To understand the major reasons for such overheads, we performed on top of Grid'5000 up to 15k experiments, booting VM / Containerunder different environmental conditions. The results showed that the most influential factor is the I/O operations. To accelerate the boot process, we defend in this thesis, the design of a dedicated mechanism to mitigate the number of generated I/O operations. We demonstrated the relevance of this proposal by discussing a first prototype entitled YOLO (You Only LoadOnce). Thanks to YOLO, the boot duration can be faster 2-13 times for VMs and 2 times for containers. Finally, it is noteworthy to mention that the way YOLO has been designed enables it to be easily applied to other types of virtualization (e.g., Xen) and containerization technologies.

La rupture prématurée des membranes avant terme (RPMAT) est une complication de la grossesse responsable d’une importante morbi-mortalité périnatale. La prise en charge anténatale vise à réduire les conséquences délétères de cette pathologie, liées à l’inflammation intra-utérine et à la prématurité, à la fois pour la mère et pour l’enfant. L’objectif de cette thèse était d’étudier les déterminants obstétricaux du pronostic de L’enfant prématuré né dans un contexte de RPMAT, à partir des données de la cohorte EPIPAGE 2. Nous avons d’abord évalué l’impact de la durée de latence, comprise entre la RPMAT et l’accouchement, sur le pronostic néonatal. Nos résultats montrent que pour un âge gestationnel de naissance donné, la durée de latence après une RPMAT entre 24 et 32 SA n’est pas associée à la survie ou à la survie sans morbidité sévère. Le principal déterminant du pronostic néonatal est l’âge gestationnel à la naissance. Nous avons ensuite étudié la tocolyse, un traitement médicamenteux largement utilisé après une RPMAT dans le but de prolonger la grossesse. L’administration d’une tocolyse après une RPMAT n’est associée ni à l’amélioration de la survie sans morbidité du prématuré, ni à la prolongation de la grossesse. Enfin, une analyse descriptive des cas de RPMAT entre 22 et 25 SA montre qu’à ces âges gestationnels extrêmes, la RPMAT est associée à un risque élevé de mortalité périnatale et de morbidité à court et à long terme, avec de grandes variations selon l’âge gestationnel à la rupture. Nos travaux fournissent des informations pertinentes pour les équipes médicales et les femmes enceintes et questionnent certaines pratiques obstétricales, notamment l’administration d’une tocolyse après une RPMAT. Ils soulèvent des questions qui feront l’objet de nouveaux projets de recherche, en particulier un essai contrôlé randomisé sur la tocolyse après RPMAT, financé par le PHRC-N 2016 (essai TOCOPROM). / Preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) is a complication of pregnancy responsible for significant perinatal mortality and morbidity. Antenatal management aims to reduce adverse consequences, relating to intrauterine inflammation and prematurity, for both mother and child. This thesis aimed to study obstetric determinants impacting the outcome of preterm babies born following PPROM, using data from the EPIPAGE 2 cohort. We first evaluated the impact of latency duration, i.e. the time from PPROM to delivery, on neonatal prognosis. For a given gestational age at birth, latency duration after PPROM at 24-32 weeks' gestation was not associated with survival or survival without severe morbidity. The principal determinant of neonatal prognosis was gestational age at birth. We then studied tocolysis, a treatment widely used after PPROM to prolong pregnancy. Administration of tocolysis after PPROM was not associated with either improved survival without morbidity of the preterm infant or prolongation of pregnancy. Finally, a descriptive analysis of cases of PPROM occurring at 22-25 weeks’ gestation demonstrated that, at these extreme gestational ages, PPROM was associated with high risks of perinatal mortality and short- and long-term morbidity, with large variations according to gestational age at rupture. Our work provides relevant information for medical teams and pregnant women and questions some obstetric practices, particularly the use of tocolysis after PPROM. They raise issues that will be the subject of future research projects, specifically a randomized controlled trial on tocolysis after PPROM, already funded by PHRC-N 2016 (TOCOPROM trial).

Elektrokardiografi, EKG är den mest använda kardiovaskulära undersökningen för studering av hjärtats funktion, patologi i hjärtats retledningssystem och rytm. För att registrera och undersöka hjärtats elektriska aktivitet, används de standardiserade 12-avledningssystemet (12-SL) med distal placering av extremitetsavledningarna på underarmar och underben. På grund av muskelstörningar som kan förekomma under bland annat ett arbetsprov, är 12-SL inte alltid optimalt. Därför har andra modifierade system för elektrodplacering av extremitetselektroderna som Mason- Likar och Lund-avledningssystemet, ersatt med en omplacering proximalt på överarmar och höftkam. Tidigare studier har visat en förändring i EKG-registreringen som kan leda till falska patologier eller missvisande av det befintliga patologierna. Studier har även visat en förändring i EKG-registreringar som kan uppkomma vid olika kroppspositioner. Syftet med denna studie var därför att studera den potentiella skillnaden som uppstår mellan 12-SL och en proximal omplacering enligt Lund-systemet med en kroppspositionsändring. Studien inkluderade 31 deltagare remitterade till ett ordinärt arbetsprov, där en registrering skedde vid distal- och proximal koppling samt med patienten i sittande läge. Utifrån erhållna EKG-registreringar jämfördes R-vågsamplituden, QRS-durationen samt PQ tiden. Studien visade en statistisk signifikant skillnad i alla extremitetsavledningar vid en förflyttning av elektroderna för R-vågamplituden samt för avledning V5 och –aVL vid ändring av kroppsposition. Ingen signifikant förändring kunde observeras för PQ-tiden och QRS-durationen. / Electrocardiography, ECG is the most used cardiovascular method to study cardiac function, pathology of the heart's retinal system and rhythm. To record and investigate the electrical activity of the heart, the standard 12-lead system (12-SL) with distal placement of the limb leads on the forearms and lower legs are commonly used. Due to muscular artifact that can occur in connection with exercise ECGs, 12-SL is not always optimal for use. Therefore, other systems such as Mason-Likar and the Lund-system have replaced with a proximal repositioning of the limb electrodes. Previous studies have shown a change in ECG registration that can lead to false pathology and alarms when modifying the standardized 12-lead system. Previous studies have also shown a possible change in ECG-registrations that can occur with a different body positions. The purpose of this research was to study the potential change that arises between 12-SL and a proximal relocation according to the Lund system with a difference in a body position. The study included 31 participants referred to the regular work test, where a registration was made at distal and proximal connection as well as with the patient in a sitting position. Based on the obtained ECG, the R- wave amplitudes, QRS- durations and PQ- intervals was measured and compared. Results showed a statistically significant difference in all limb leads at and displacements of the electrodes for the R-wave amplitude as well as for the V5 and -aVL with a different body position. No significant change was observers for the PQ- time and QRS- duration.