<p>This thesis presents models applicable for aquatic ecosystems. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) form an important part of the thesis. The dynamic mass balance models focus on nutrient fluxes, biotic/abiotic interactions and operate on different temporal and spatial scales (site, local, regional and international). The relevance and role of scale in mass balance modelling is a focal point of the thesis.</p><p>A mesocosm experiment was used to construct a model to estimate the nutrient load of phosphorus and nitrogen from net cage fish farming (i.e., the site scale). The model was used to estimate what feeding conditions that are required for a sustainable aquaculture scenario, i.e., a zero nutrient load situation (a linkage between the site scale and the regional scale). </p><p>A dynamic model was constructed for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and sedimentation in coastal areas (i.e., the local scale) with different morphometric characteristics and distances to the Sea. The results demonstrate that the conditions in the Sea (the regional and international scale) are of fundamental importance, also for the most enclosed coastal areas.</p><p>A foodweb model for lakes was transformed and recalibrated for Baltic Sea conditions (i.e., the international scale). The model also includes a mass balance model for phosphorus and accounts for key environmental factors that regulate the presuppositions for production and biomasses of key functional groups of organisms. The potential use of the new model for setting fish quotas of cod was examined.</p><p>For the intermittent (i.e., regional) scale, topographically complex areas can be difficult to define and model. Therefore, an attempt was made to construct a waterscape subbasin identification program (WASUBI). The method was tested for the Finnish Archipelago Sea and the Okavango Delta in Botswana. A comparison to results from a semi-random delineation method showed that more enclosed basins was created with the WASUBI method.</p>

<p>This thesis presents predictive models for important variables concerning eutrophication effects in lakes. The keystone is a dynamic phosphorus model based on ordinary differential equations. By calculating mass fluxes of phosphorus into, within and out from a lake, the concentrations of different forms of phosphorus in different compartments of the lake are estimated.</p><p>The dynamic phosphorus model is critically tested and several improvements are presented, including two new compartments for colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms for lake outflow, water mixing, diffusion, water content and organic content of accumulation sediments are implemented. Predictions with the new version show good agreement against empirical data in five tested lakes.</p><p>The sub-model for SPM uses the same driving variables as the basic phosphorus model, so the inclusion of this model as a sub-model does not require any additional variables. The model for SPM may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions of suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one compartment with SPM available for resuspension in ET-sediments.</p><p>Empirical data from Lake Erken (Sweden) and Lake Balaton (Hungary) are used to evaluate the variability in settling velocity of SPM. It is found that the variability is substantial and may be accounted for by using a dimensionless moderator for SPM concentration. Empirical data from accumulation area sediments in Lake Erken are used to develop a model for the dynamics of phosphorus sedimentation, burial and diffusion in the sediments. The model is shown to provide reasonable monthly predictions of four functional forms of phosphorus at different sediment depths.</p><p>Simulations with the lake phosphorus model using two different climate scenarios indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. Lake Erken, with a water retention time of 7 years, appears to be much more sensitive than two basins of Lake Mälaren (Sweden) with substantially shorter retention times. The implication would be that in eutrophic lakes with long water retention times, eutrophication problems may become serious if the future becomes warmer. This will be important in contexts of lake management when remedial measures against lake eutrophication have to be taken.</p>

This thesis presents models applicable for aquatic ecosystems. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) form an important part of the thesis. The dynamic mass balance models focus on nutrient fluxes, biotic/abiotic interactions and operate on different temporal and spatial scales (site, local, regional and international). The relevance and role of scale in mass balance modelling is a focal point of the thesis. A mesocosm experiment was used to construct a model to estimate the nutrient load of phosphorus and nitrogen from net cage fish farming (i.e., the site scale). The model was used to estimate what feeding conditions that are required for a sustainable aquaculture scenario, i.e., a zero nutrient load situation (a linkage between the site scale and the regional scale). A dynamic model was constructed for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and sedimentation in coastal areas (i.e., the local scale) with different morphometric characteristics and distances to the Sea. The results demonstrate that the conditions in the Sea (the regional and international scale) are of fundamental importance, also for the most enclosed coastal areas. A foodweb model for lakes was transformed and recalibrated for Baltic Sea conditions (i.e., the international scale). The model also includes a mass balance model for phosphorus and accounts for key environmental factors that regulate the presuppositions for production and biomasses of key functional groups of organisms. The potential use of the new model for setting fish quotas of cod was examined. For the intermittent (i.e., regional) scale, topographically complex areas can be difficult to define and model. Therefore, an attempt was made to construct a waterscape subbasin identification program (WASUBI). The method was tested for the Finnish Archipelago Sea and the Okavango Delta in Botswana. A comparison to results from a semi-random delineation method showed that more enclosed basins was created with the WASUBI method.

This thesis presents predictive models for important variables concerning eutrophication effects in lakes. The keystone is a dynamic phosphorus model based on ordinary differential equations. By calculating mass fluxes of phosphorus into, within and out from a lake, the concentrations of different forms of phosphorus in different compartments of the lake are estimated. The dynamic phosphorus model is critically tested and several improvements are presented, including two new compartments for colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms for lake outflow, water mixing, diffusion, water content and organic content of accumulation sediments are implemented. Predictions with the new version show good agreement against empirical data in five tested lakes. The sub-model for SPM uses the same driving variables as the basic phosphorus model, so the inclusion of this model as a sub-model does not require any additional variables. The model for SPM may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions of suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one compartment with SPM available for resuspension in ET-sediments. Empirical data from Lake Erken (Sweden) and Lake Balaton (Hungary) are used to evaluate the variability in settling velocity of SPM. It is found that the variability is substantial and may be accounted for by using a dimensionless moderator for SPM concentration. Empirical data from accumulation area sediments in Lake Erken are used to develop a model for the dynamics of phosphorus sedimentation, burial and diffusion in the sediments. The model is shown to provide reasonable monthly predictions of four functional forms of phosphorus at different sediment depths. Simulations with the lake phosphorus model using two different climate scenarios indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. Lake Erken, with a water retention time of 7 years, appears to be much more sensitive than two basins of Lake Mälaren (Sweden) with substantially shorter retention times. The implication would be that in eutrophic lakes with long water retention times, eutrophication problems may become serious if the future becomes warmer. This will be important in contexts of lake management when remedial measures against lake eutrophication have to be taken.

Nowadays disabled persons are actively integrated into social life. Different compensatory equipment allows them to work and travel independently and one of such means is the wheelchair. Not every disabled person has possibilities to travel by his own car, it is more convenient to use public transport facilities. Transportation safety of the wheelchair users is one of the most important problems facing engineers and transit providers, becouse improperly or totally unsecured wheelchair can lose the stability and tip over during the emergency driving situations. The main object of the scientific research work is complex dynamic system "Man - Wheelchair - Vehicle", whis is under action of environmental factors (road roughness, motion oscillations of vehicle). The main tasks of the work are to form and research nonlinear model of dynamic system considered and to define system's stability limits, providing means for safe travel; to determine main characteristics of the external action and analyze its influence on to dynamic system; to build engineering computation methodology for estimation of the rational parameters to fasten the wheelchair to the vehicle.

根據以往探討評價合成型抵押擔保債務憑證之文獻研究，最廣泛使用的方法應為大樣本一致性資產組合(large homogeneous portfolio portfolio；LHP)假設之單因子常態關聯結構模型來評價，但會因為常態分配的厚尾度及偏斜性造成與市場報價間的差異過大，且會造成相關性微笑曲線現象。故像是Kalemanova et al.在2007年提出之應用LHP假設的單因子Normal Inverse Gaussian(NIG)關聯結構模型以及邱嬿燁(2007)提出NIG及Closed Skew Normal(CSN)複合分配之單因子關聯結構模型(MIX模型)皆是為了改善其在各分劵評價時能達到更佳的評價結果 ，然而過去的文獻在評價合成型抵押擔保債務憑證時，需要將CDS價差、各分劵真實報價之資訊導入模型，並藉由此兩種資訊進而得到相關係數及報價，故靜態模型大多為事後之驗證，在靜態模型方面，我們嘗試使用不同概念之CDS取法以及相對到期日期數遞減之概念來比較此兩種不同方法與原始的關聯結構模型進行比較分析，在動態模型方面，我們應用與時間序列相關之方法套入以往的評價模型，針對不同商品結構的合成型抵押擔保債券評價，並由實證分析來比較此兩種模型，而在最後，我們利用時間序列模型來對各分劵進行預測。

Road network of a region is of a paramount importance in the overall development. Management of road traffic is a key factor for the city authority and reducing the road traffic congestion is a significant challenge in this perspective. In this thesis, a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) based road-traffic monitoring scheme with dynamic mathematical traffic model is presented that will not necessarily include all adjacent intersections of a block; rather the important major intersections of a city. The objective of this scheme is to reduce the congestion by re-routing the vehicles to better performing road-segments by informing the down-stream drivers through broadcasting the congestion information in a dedicated radio channel. The dynamic model can provide with the instantaneous status of the traffic of the road-network. The scheme is a WSN based multi-hop relay network with hierarchical architecture and composed of ordinary nodes, Cluster-Head nodes, Base Stations, Gateway nodes and Monitoring and Control Centers (MCC) etc. Through collecting the traffic information, MCC will check the congestion status and in defining the congestion, threshold factors have been used in this model. For the congested situation of a road-segment, a cost function has been defined as a performance indicator and estimated using the weight factors (importance) of these selected intersections. This thesis considered a traffic network with twelve major intersections of a city with four major directions. Traffic arrivals in these intersections are assumed to follow Poisson distribution. Model was simulated in Matlab with traffic generated through Poisson Random Number Generator and cost function was estimated for the congestion status of the road-segments over a simulation period of 1440 minutes starting from midnight. For optimization purpose we adopted two different approaches; in the first approach, performance of the scheme was evaluated for all threshold factor values iteratively one at a time, applying a threshold factor value to define threshold capacities of all the road segments; traffic was generated and relative cost has been estimated following the model specifications with the purpose of congestion avoidance. In the second approach, different values of threshold factor have been used for different road segments for determining the optimum set-up, and exhaustive search technique has been applied with a smaller configuration in order to keep computations reachable. Simulation results show the capacity of this scheme to improve the traffic performance by reducing the congestion level with low congestion costs.

The rapid increase in the demand on fresh water due the increase in the world population and scarcity of natural water puts more stress on the desalination industrial sector to install more desalination plants around the world. Among these desalination plants, multistage flash desalination process (MSF) is considered to be the most reliable technique of producing potable water from saline water. In recent years, however, the MSF process is confronting many problems to cut off the cost and increase its performance. Among these problems are the non-condensable gases (NCGs) and the accumulation of fouling which they work as heat insulation materials. As a result, the MSF pumps and the heat transfer equipment are overdesigned and consequently increase the capital cost and decrease the performance of the plants. Moreover, improved process control is a cost effective approach to energy conservation and increased process profitability. Thus, this study is motivated by the real absence of detailed kinetic fouling model and implementation of advance process control (APC). To accomplish the above tasks, commercial modelling tools can be utilized to model and simulate MSF process taking into account the NCGs and fouling effect, and optimum control strategy. In this research, gPROMS (general PROcess Modeling System) model builder has been used to develop the MSF process model. First, a dynamic mathematical model of MSF is developed based on the basic laws of mass balance, energy balance and heat transfer. Physical and thermodynamic properties of brine, distillate and water vapour are included to support the model. The model simulation results are validated against actual plant data published in the literature and good agreement with these data is obtained. Second, the design of venting system in MSF plant and the effect of NCGs on the overall heat transfer coefficient (OHTC) are studied. The release rate of NCGs is studied using Henry’s law and the locations of venting points are optimised. The results reveal that high concentration of NCGs heavily affects the OHTC. Furthermore, advance control strategy namely: generic model control (GMC) is designed and introduced to the MSF process to control and track the set points of the two most important variables in the MSF plant; namely the Top Brine Temperature (TBT) which is the output temperature of the brine heater and the Brine Level (BL) in the last stage. The results are compared to conventional Proportional Integral Derivative Controller (PID) and show that GMC controller provides better performance over conventional PID controller to handle a nonlinear system. In addition, a new control strategy called hybrid Fuzzy-GMC is developed and implemented to control the same aforementioned loops. Its results reveal that the new control outperforms the pure GMC in some areas. Finally, a dynamic fouling model is developed and incorporated into the MSF dynamic process model to predict fouling at high temperature and high velocity. The proposed dynamic model considers the attachment and removal mechanisms of calcium carbonate and magnesium hydroxide with more relaxation of the assumptions. Since the MSF plant stages work as a series of heat exchangers, there is a continuous change of temperature, heat flux and salinity of the seawater. The proposed model predicts the behaviour of fouling based on the physical and thermal conditions of every single stage of the plant.

Le « Power-to-Gas » pourrait devenir une solution attractive pour le stockage des énergies renouvelables, pourvu que des électrolyseurs soient capables de fonctionner efficacement dans des conditions intermittentes à un coût abordable. Ce travail a pour objectif d'évaluer la faisabilité technique du fonctionnement intermittent de systèmes d'électrolyse à oxyde solide (SOEC) autour de 1073 K. Des conditions réalistes défavorables sont considérées, consistant en un système autonome sans source externe de chaleur et intégrant une compression d'hydrogène à 3 MPa. La problématique se compose de deux aspects : i) la gamme de fonctionnement du système, limitée à 60-100% en raison de gradients thermiques, est étendue via des stratégies de contrôle efficaces, ii) des procédures sont définies pour minimiser l'impact de l'intermittence sur la durée de vie. Premièrement, une stratégie de contrôle modulaire est proposée, consistant en l'utilisation de plusieurs unités indépendantes qui fonctionnent dans une gamme de puissance tolérable, ou sont arrêtées. La gamme de fonctionnement du système est ainsi étendue à 15-100% dans le cas de quatre unités. Une stratégie de contrôle complémentaire, consistant en un chauffage électrique interne, permet d'étendre la gamme de fonctionnement en réduisant les gradients thermiques, mais elle est susceptible de diminuer la durée de vie. Elle n'est donc appliquée qu'à une unité afin de suivre la courbe de charge et d'étendre la gamme de fonctionnement du système à 3-100%. Deuxièmement, 1800 cycles électriques on-off sont appliqués à une SOEC sans impact sur la dégradation, ce qui montre que des arrêts/démarrages répétés ne diminuent pas la durée de vie. De plus, des procédures de démarrage, standby et arrêt sont définies. Enfin, deux études de systèmes Eolien-SOEC et Solaire-SOEC fonctionnant pendant un an montrent que, avec les stratégies de contrôle implémentées, le système SOEC stocke la puissance appliquée avec un rendement de 91% sur PCS en moyenne, alors que les unités fonctionnent dans des conditions tolérables mis à part une unité qui suit la courbe de charge et est susceptible d'avoir une durée de vie diminuée. / Power-to-Gas could become an attractive solution for renewable electricity storage, provided that affordable electrolysers are able to operate efficiently under intermittent conditions. This work aims to assess the technical feasibility of operating intermittently a Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC) system around 1073 K. Realistic unfavourable conditions are considered, consisting in a standalone system operated with no external heat source and integrating hydrogen compression to 3 MPa. Two challenges are tackled in this work: i) the system power load range, limited to 60-100% due to thermal gradients, is extended via efficient control strategies, ii) procedures are defined to minimise the impact of the intermittency on the lifetime. First, a modular control strategy is proposed, consisting in the use of several SOEC units which are either operated in a tolerable power load range, or switched off. The system power load range is hence extended to 15-100% in the case of four units. A complementary control strategy, consisting in internal electrical heating, enables to extend the load range by reducing thermal gradients, but it may decrease the lifetime. Thus, it is applied to only one unit for it to follow the load curve and extend the system power load range to 3-100%. Secondly, 1800 on-off electric cycles are applied to an SOEC with no degradation increase, which shows that repeated start/stops do not decrease the lifetime. Start-up, standby and shut-down procedures are also defined. Finally, two case studies of Wind-SOEC and Solar-SOEC systems operated over one year show that, with the implemented control strategies, the SOEC system stores the applied power with an average efficiency of 91% vs. HHV, while units operate under tolerable conditions apart from one unit which follows the load curve and may have a decreased lifetime.

Road network of a region is of a paramount importance in the overall development. Management of road traffic is a key factor for the city authority and reducing the road traffic congestion is a significant challenge in this perspective. In this thesis, a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) based road-traffic monitoring scheme with dynamic mathematical traffic model is presented that will not necessarily include all adjacent intersections of a block; rather the important major intersections of a city. The objective of this scheme is to reduce the congestion by re-routing the vehicles to better performing road-segments by informing the down-stream drivers through broadcasting the congestion information in a dedicated radio channel. The dynamic model can provide with the instantaneous status of the traffic of the road-network. The scheme is a WSN based multi-hop relay network with hierarchical architecture and composed of ordinary nodes, Cluster-Head nodes, Base Stations, Gateway nodes and Monitoring and Control Centers (MCC) etc. Through collecting the traffic information, MCC will check the congestion status and in defining the congestion, threshold factors have been used in this model. For the congested situation of a road-segment, a cost function has been defined as a performance indicator and estimated using the weight factors (importance) of these selected intersections. This thesis considered a traffic network with twelve major intersections of a city with four major directions. Traffic arrivals in these intersections are assumed to follow Poisson distribution. Model was simulated in Matlab with traffic generated through Poisson Random Number Generator and cost function was estimated for the congestion status of the road-segments over a simulation period of 1440 minutes starting from midnight. For optimization purpose we adopted two different approaches; in the first approach, performance of the scheme was evaluated for all threshold factor values iteratively one at a time, applying a threshold factor value to define threshold capacities of all the road segments; traffic was generated and relative cost has been estimated following the model specifications with the purpose of congestion avoidance. In the second approach, different values of threshold factor have been used for different road segments for determining the optimum set-up, and exhaustive search technique has been applied with a smaller configuration in order to keep computations reachable. Simulation results show the capacity of this scheme to improve the traffic performance by reducing the congestion level with low congestion costs.