Coral mortality caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and its related disturbances has been researched throughout the Eastern Pacific. In the past three decades, disturbances related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to influence coral growth in the Eastern Pacific. In the Galápagos Islands, Ecuador, more than 97% of corals experienced mortality after the severe 1982-1983 ENSO episode. However, two of the most dominant coral species found in a coral community adjacent to Devil’s Crown; Psammocora stellata and Diaseris distorta survived this severe ENSO event. By reconstructing sediment cores of the coral community, this study assessed how the coral assemblage has changed over the past 7,700 years of the Holocene epoch. The historical reconstructions were then related to existing records of Holocene ENSO variability in order to determine if changes in the relative abundance of coral species were related to ENSO activity and disturbances. We observed high variability in the relative abundances of P. stellata and D. distorta in the cores, including an increase in the abundance of D. distorta at approximately 2,200 yBP. Between the two species, opposite abundance trends were observed and supported by Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) ordination analysis. Overall, the high variance in coral composition at the site throughout the Holocene documents repeated disturbance events in this region.

Uncertainty in rainfall forecasts affects the level of quality and assurance for decisions made to manage water resource-based systems. However, eliminating uncertainty in a complete manner could be difficult, decision-makers thus are challenged to make decisions in the light of uncertainty. This study provides statistical models as an approach to cope with uncertainty, including: a) a statistical method relying on a Gaussian mixture (GM) model to assist in better characterize uncertainty in climate model projections and evaluate their performance in matching observations; b) a stochastic model that incorporates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle to narrow uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts; and c) a statistical approach to determine to what extent drought events forecasted using ENSO information could be utilized in the water resources decision-making process. This study also investigates the relationship between calibration and lead time on the ability to narrow the interannual uncertainty of forecasts and the associated usefulness for decision making. These objectives are demonstrated for the northwest region of Costa Rica as a case study of a developing country in Central America. This region of Costa Rica is under an increasing risk of future water shortages due to climate change, increased demand, and high variability in the bimodal cycle of seasonal rainfall. First, the GM model is shown to be a suitable approach to compare and characterize long-term projections of climate models. The GM representation of seasonal cycles is then employed to construct detailed comparison tests for climate models with respect to observed rainfall data. Three verification metrics demonstrate that an acceptable degree of predictability can be obtained by incorporating ENSO information in reducing error and interannual variability in the forecast of seasonal rainfall. The predictability of multicategory rainfall forecasts in the late portion of the wet season surpasses that in the early portion of the wet season. Later, the value of drought forecast information for coping with uncertainty in making decisions on water management is determined by quantifying the reduction in expected losses relative to a perfect forecast. Both the discrimination ability and the relative economic value of drought-event forecasts are improved by the proposed forecast method, especially after calibration. Positive relative economic value is found only for a range of scenarios of the cost-loss ratio, which indicates that the proposed forecast could be used for specific cases. Otherwise, taking actions (no-actions) is preferred as the cost-loss ratio approaches zero (one). Overall, the approach of incorporating ENSO information into seasonal rainfall forecasts would provide useful value to the decision-making process - in particular at lead times of one year ahead.

The effects of a non-zero background state on atmospheric dynamics is explored through simple models and observations. Firstly, we examine the effects of moisture gradients on the stability and propagation of Rossby waves in a mid-latitude -plane. We begin by a consistent derivation of the forced quasi-geostrophic equations on a -plane to understand the constraints placed by geostrophy on the time scale of condensation. We see that the presence of meridional gradients of moisture results in a slowdown of the waves. On the introduction of zonal gradients of moisture, the waves become unstable, and for certain parameters which are representative of the real atmosphere, they propagate eastward and mature on an intra-seasonal timescale. The mechanism of the in hence of moisture on waves is understood by thinking of condensation as providing an \equivalent" potential vorticity (PV) gradient which opposes the dynamical PV gradient. Secondly, we look at the effects of a mean background ow on the Matsuno-Gill response in the spherical shallow water system. The mean ow is prescribed to resemble the climatological upper tropospheric zonal wind structure in the atmosphere. As the strength of the ow increases, the equatorially trapped Matsuno-Gill response rst transforms into a poleward propagating Rossby wavetrain. As the strength of the mean ow reaches values similar to that observed in the atmosphere, the stationary wave response becomes a zonally oriented quadrupole structure. This structure bears a striking resemblance to the observed upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The time evolution of this quadrupole structure is quick enough to be relevant on MJO timescales, and the structure is quite robust across a range of values for the drag coefficient. Finally, we look at the role played by low frequency variability in the Pacific in the recent expansion of the Hadley cell. We find that the dominant effect of the low frequency variability is a stationary dispersive Rossby wavetrain extending from the tropical Paci. We further find that most of the observed expansion of the Hadley cell can be accounted for by this low frequency variability. We nd that large scale changes such as the changes in the equator-pole temperature gradient or midlatitude static stability need not be invoked to understand the observed expansion.

MENVSC (Geography) / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / Semi-arid regions of Africa are prone to epidemics of malaria. Epidemic malaria occurs along the geographical margins of endemic regions, when the equilibrium between the human, parasite and mosquito vector populations are occasionally disturbed by changes in one or more meteorological factors and a sharp but temporary increase in disease incidence results. Monthly rainfall and temperature data from the South African Weather Service and malaria incidence data from Department of Health were used to determine the influence of meteorological variables on malaria transmission in Limpopo from 1998-2014. Meteorological influences on malaria transmission were analyzed using time series analysis techniques. Climate suitability for malaria transmission was determined using MARA distribution model. There are three distinct modes of rainfall variability over Limpopo which can be associated with land falling tropical cyclones, cloud bands and intensity of the Botswana upper high. ENSO and ENSO-Modoki explains about 58% of this variability. Malaria epidemics were identified using a standardized index, where cases greater than two standard deviations from the mean are identified as epidemics. Significant positive correlations between meteorological variables and monthly malaria incidence is observed at least one month lag time, except for rainfall which shows positive correlation at three months lag time. Malaria transmission appears to be strongly influenced by minimum temperature and relative humidity (R = 0.52, p<0.001). A SARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 0, 0)12 model fitted with only malaria cases has prediction performance of about 53%. Warm SSTs of the SWIO and Benguela Niño region west of Angola are the dominant predictors of malaria epidemics in Limpopo in the absence of La Niña. Warm SSTs over the equatorial Atlantic and Benguela Niño region results in the relaxation of the St. Helena high thus shifting the rainy weather to south-east Africa. La Niña have been linked with increased malaria cases in south-east Africa. During El Niño when rain bearing systems have migrated east of Madagascar ridging of the St. Helena high may produce conducive conditions for malaria transmission. Anomalously warmer and moist winters preceding the malaria transmission season are likely to allow for high mosquito survival and the availability of the breeding sites thus high population in the beginning of the transmission season hence resulting in increased epidemics. / NRF

The agriculture sectors in Canada are highly vulnerable to a wide range of inter-related weather risks linked to seasonal climate variability (e.g., El Ni ̃no Southern Oscillation(ENSO)), short-term extreme weather events (e.g., heatwaves), and emergent disease(e.g., grape powdery mildew). All of these weather-related risks can cause severe crop losses to agricultural crop yield and crop quality as Canada grows a wide range of farm products, and the changing weather conditions mainly drive farming practices. This dissertation presents three machine learning-based statistical models to assess the weather risks on the Canadian agriculture regions and to provide reliable risk forecasting to improve the decision-making of Canadian agricultural producers in farming practices. The first study presents a multi-scale, cluster-based Principal Component Analysis(PCA) approach to assess the potential seasonal impacts of ENSO to spring wheat and barley on agricultural census regions across the Canada prairies areas. Model prediction skills for annual wheat and barley yield have examined in multi-scale from spatial cluster approaches. The ’best’ spatial models were used to define spatial patterns of ENSO forcing on wheat and barley yields. The model comparison of our spatial model to non-spatial models shows spatial clustering and ENSO forcing have increase model performance of prediction skills in forecasting future cereal crop production. The second study presents a copula-Bayesian network approach to assess the impact of extreme high-temperature events (heatwave events) on the developments of regional crops across the Canada agricultural regions at the eco-district-scale. Relevantweather variables and heatwave variables during heatwave periods have identified and used as input variables for model learning. Both a copula-Bayesian network and Gaussian-based network modeling approach is evaluated and inter-compared. The copula approach based on ’vine copulas’ generated the most accurate predictions of heatwave occurrence as a driver of crop heat stress. The last study presents a stochastic, hybrid-Bayesian machine-learning approach to explore the complex causal relationships between weather, pathogen, and host for grape powdery mildew in an experimental farm in Quebec, Canada. This study explores a high-performance network model for daily disease risk forecast by using estimated development factors of pathogen and host from recorded daily weather variables. A fungicide strategy for disease control has presented by using the model outputs and forecasted future weather variability. The dissertation findings are beneficial to Canada’s agricultural sector. The inter-related weather risks explored by the three separate studies in multi-scales provide a better understanding of the interactions between changing weather conditions, extreme weather, and crop production. The research showcases new insights, methods, and tools for minimizing risk in agricultural decision-making / Graduate / 2021-08-19

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Nas últimas décadas, particularmente desde a década de 1970, testemunhou-se um rápido recuo das geleiras em várias partes dos Andes tropicais. Uma tendência de aquecimento foi observada na região durante o mesmo período, com um hiato recente desde no início de 2010. No entanto, este hiato pode não ser o principal fator a influenciar as observações de aquecimento e recuo das geleiras em altitudes elevadas nos Andes tropicais. Com o surgimento de imagens de alta resolução espacial e espectral, e de modelos digitais de elevação (MDE) de alta resolução, agora é possível compreender as mudanças multitemporais das geleiras, o que era difícil de realizar utilizando as técnicas tradicionais e os dados de baixa resolução. Neste trabalho foram calculadas as variações da linha de neve das geleiras selecionadas ao longo dos Andes tropicais desde o início de 1980. A linha de neve máxima observada durante a estação seca (inverno austral) nos trópicos pode ser considerada como equivalente à linha de equilíbrio que separa a zona de acumulação da zona de ablação. A fim de reduzir o erro na estimativa da linha de neve foram consideradas somente as geleiras com declividades menores que 20o. Dependendo da região estudada e da presença de cobertura de nuvens, foram selecionadas imagens de várias fontes. As imagens da série Landsat (MSS, TM, ETM+ e OLI), EO1 OLI, ASTER e IRS LISS III foram usadas junto com MDE do ASTER GDEM-v2. Três bandas espectrais (TM5 - infravermelho médio, TM4- infravermelho próximo e TM2 - verde) foram utilizadas para calcular a linha de neve durante a estação seca, aplicando limiares adequados para TM4 e TM2. Os conjuntos de dados meteorológicos de várias fontes também foram analisados para observar as mudanças na precipitação, na temperatura e na umidade que influenciam os parâmetros glaciológicos como: o balanço de massa e a linha de equilíbrio. Geleiras representativas nos trópicos internos e trópicos externos foram consideradas separadamente dentro de um novo quadro, que foi baseado na precipitação, umidade e condições de temperatura ao longo da América do Sul. Neste âmbito, os Andes tropicais são classificados em trópicos internos, trópicos externos úmidos do norte, trópicos externos úmidos do sul e os trópicos externos secos. O Vulcão Cotopaxi no Equador (trópicos internos), o Nevado Caullaraju-Pastoruri que é uma geleira na Cordilheira Branca no Peru (trópicos externos úmidos do norte), o Nevado Cololo na Cordilheira Apolobamba na Bolívia (trópicos externos úmidos do sul), o Nevado Coropuna na Cordilheira Ampato no Peru e o Nevado Sajama na Cordilheira Ocidental da Bolívia (trópicos externos secos) são as geleiras representativas de cada grupo consideradas neste estudo. As geleiras tropicais nos trópicos internos, especialmente as situadas perto da Zona de Convergência Intertropicais (ZCIT), são mais vulneráveis a aumentos na temperatura e menos sensíveis a variações na precipitação. Em contraste, as geleiras nos trópicos externos respondem à variabilidade de precipitação muito rapidamente em comparação com a variação de temperatura, particularmente quando se deslocam para as regiões subtropicais. A dependência do balanço de massa sobre as características de sublimação também aumenta a partir dos trópicos internos para os trópicos externos. As condições de aquecimento, com maior umidade, tendem a aumentar a perda de massa por causa do derretimento em vez da sublimação. A elevação da umidade nos trópicos externos pode alterar as geleiras dominadas pela sublimação (nos trópicos externos e subtrópicos) e para as geleiras dominadas por derretimento. Observa-se que as geleiras próximas da ZCIT (trópicos internos e trópicosexternos úmidos do sul) estão recuando mais rapidamente como uma resposta ao aquecimento global, enquanto que as geleiras nos trópicos externos úmidos do norte e trópicos externos secos mostraram recuo relativamente mais lento. Possivelmente isso pode ser devido à ocorrência de fases frias do El Niño - Oscilação Sul (ENOS) conjuntamente com a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP). As anomalias observadas nas variáveis meteorológicas seguem os padrões de ODP e as variações anuais de linha de neve seguem eventos de El Niño particularmente na fase ODP quente. No entanto, uma forte correlação entre as variações da linha de neve e dos fenômenos ENOS (e ODP) não está estabelecida. As geleiras do Equador mostram menos retração em resposta à tendência de aquecimento se comparadas às observações feitas por outros pesquisadores na Colômbia e na Venezuela, provavelmente devido à grande altitude das geleiras equatorianas. Em poucas palavras, as geleiras menores e em baixas altitudes nos trópicos internos e trópicos externos úmidos do sul estão desaparecendo mais rapidamente do que outras geleiras nos Andes tropicais. Também se observou neste estudo a existência de uma propriedade direcional no recuo das geleiras, o que não se observou em quaisquer outros estudos recentes. As geleiras nas cordilheiras leste do Peru e da Bolívia, que alimentam muitos rios nos lados leste das cordilheiras orientais, estão recuando do que aquelas geleiras situadas nas encostas ocidentais dos Andes tropicais. / Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in many parts of the tropical Andes. A warming trend is observed in this region during the same period, with a recent hiatus since the early 2010s. However, this hiatus is observed to have not influenced the retreat of high elevation glaciers in the tropical Andes. Due to the emergence of high spatial and spectral resolution images and high quality digital elevation models (DEM), it is now possible to understand the multi-temporal glacier changes compared with the techniques that existed a few decades before. We calculated the snowline variations of selected glaciers along the tropical Andes since the early 1980s. The maximum snowline observed during the dry season (austral winter) in the tropics can be considered as nearly equivalent to the equilibrium line that separates the accumulation zone from the ablation zone. In order to reduce the error in the estimated snowline, glaciers with slopes < 20o only were considered in this research. Depending on the study region and the presence of cloud cover, images from multiple sources were selected. Landsat series (MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI), EO1 OLI, ASTER, and IRS LISS III images were used along with digital elevation models (DEM) from ASTER GDEM-v2. Three wavebands (TM5 - Middle Infrared, TM4 - Near Infrared, and TM2 - Green) were used to calculate the dry season snowline, after applying suitable threshold values to TM4 and TM2. Meteorological datasets from multiple sources were also analysed to observe the changes in precipitation, temperature, and humidity that influence key glaciological parameters such as the mass balance and the equilibrium line. Representative glaciers in the inner and the outer tropical Andes were considered separately within a new framework, which is based on the precipitation, humidity, and temperature conditions along the South America. In this framework, tropical Andes are classified in to inner tropics, northern wet outer tropics, southern wet outer tropics, and dry outer tropics. Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano, Ecuador (inner tropics), Nevado Caullaraju-Pastoruri Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (northern wet outer tropics), Nevado Cololo, Cordillera Apolobamba, Bolivia (southern wet outer tropics), and Nevado Coropuna, Cordillera Ampato Peru and Nevado Sajama, Cordillera Occidental, Bolivia (dry outer tropics) are the representative glaciers in each group considered in this study. Inner tropical glaciers, particularly those situated near the January Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are more vulnerable to increases in temperature and these glaciers are less sensitive to variations in precipitation. In contrast, outer tropical glaciers respond to precipitation variability very rapidly in comparison with the temperature variability, particularly when moving towards the subtropics. Mass balance dependency on sublimation characteristics also increases from the inner tropics to the outer tropics. Warming conditions with higher humidity tends to enhance mass loss due to melting rather than sublimation. Increased humidity observed in the outer tropics may change the sublimation dominated glaciers in the outer tropics and subtropics to melting dominated ones in the future. It is observed that the glaciers above and near the January ITCZ (inner tropics and southern wet outer tropics) are retreating faster as a response to global warming, whereas the glaciers in the northern wet outer tropics and dry outer tropics show relatively slower retreat. This can be possibly due to the occurrence of cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) together. The observed anomalies in the meteorological variables slightly follow PDO patterns and the variations in annual snowlines follows El Niño events, particularly when in phase with warm PDO. However, a strong correlation between snowline variations and ENSO (and PDO) is not established. Mountain glaciers in Ecuador show less retreat in response to the warming trend compared with observations done by other researchers in Colombia and Venezuela, probably due to very high altitude of the Ecuadorean glaciers. In a nutshell, smaller glaciers at lower altitudes in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics are disappearing faster than other glaciers in the tropical Andes. Another observation made in this study is the directional property of glacier retreat, which was not covered in any other recent studies. Those glaciers on the eastern cordilleras of Peru and Bolivia, which feed many rivers on the eastern sides of the eastern cordilleras, are retreating faster than those glaciers situated on the western sides.