L'océan Pacifique ouest équatorial, zone océanique la plus chaude du globe, est au cœur des cellules de circulation atmosphérique de mousson (méridienne) et de Walker (zonale). Les assemblages des foraminifères planctoniques, leur géochimie et leur morphométrie ainsi que les assemblages de coccolithophoridés nous ont permis de reconstruire la dynamique climatique de cette zone au Pléistocène récent Nous avons développé une nouvelle fonction de transfert non biaisée par la structure des écosystèmes comme dans l'étude CLIMAP. Les températures de surface des derniers 185 ka reconstruites par cette méthode varient entre 27 et 29.5°C, en accord avec les estimations des alcénones. La convection atmosphérique liée à ces températures élevées a donc persisté au cours du Pléistocène récent. Ces températures sont modulées par les cycles orbitaux de précession qui forcent également à cette échelle de temps le balancement de la thermocline des océans Indo-Pacifique, suivant un mécanisme similaire à l'El Niño-Oscillation Australe. A l'échelle du millénaire, la dynamique climatique rapide des cycles de Dansgaard-Oeschger des hautes latitudes est décelée dans les variations d'intensité de la mousson d'hiver Est Asiatique du Pacifique ouest équatorial. Cette mousson est marquée par un cycle de 1500 ans, indépendant du volume global des glaces, donc d'un forcage des hautes latitudes. Un rôle d'amplificateur des changements climatiques rapides est attribué à la dissociation thermale des clathrates de méthane des marges sédimentaires de basses latitudes. En effet, un enregistrement isotopique à haute résolution des isotopes du carbone démontre l'existence de dégazages catastrophiques de ces clathrates de méthane pendant le dernier stade glaciaire.

The ENSO-monsoon system is known to have a biennial component. Here we show using high resolution satellite data, mainly daily rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and daily scatterometer surface winds from QuickSCAT, that there is a clear biennial oscillation (TBO) in summer monsoon rainfall over Central India – Bay of Bengal (Cl-BoB) and the far west Pacific in the period 1999-2005. Summer (JJAS) mean rainfall oscillates between high and low values in alternate years; the rainfall is high in the odd years 1999, 2001, 2003, and 2005, and low in even years 2000, 2002 and 2004. The amplitude of the oscillation is significant, as measured against the long term standard deviation of seasonal rain based on 1979-2005 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data. We find that the TBO in rainfall is associated with TBO of SST over the tropical Indian, west Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in different seasons. There is no TBO in east Pacific SST, and no strong El Nino in this period. The TBO of SST is related to change in evaporation due to TBO of surface wind speed. A TBO of the surface branch of the Walker circulation in the eastern Indian and western Pacific basins is clearest in the autumn season during 1999-2005. There is a clear relation between a large-amplitude TBO of winter surface air temperature over north Asia associated with TBO of the Arctic oscillation (AO), and the TBO of summer monsoon rainfall. High rainfall over CI-BoB lin summer is followed by a relatively high value of the AO Index, and warm air termperature over north Asia in the succeeding winter. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) over the central Pacific and Atlantic Oceans shift north by about two degrees when the northern hemisphere is warm, reminiscent of the behaviour of the climate system of ENSO, decadal and palaeoclimate time scales. In this thesis we document the biennial oscillation of monsoon rain and its spatial structure in the recent period, and its relation with biennial oscillation of surface climate over the global tropics and extratropical regions. The existence of TBO in the tropical Atlantic, and its relation with the monsoon, is a new finding. We demonstrate that the interannual variability of the summer monsoon during 1999-2005, including the drought of 2002, is part of a pervasive TBO of global surface climate.

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an important component of the tropical climate system, known for its regular seasonality and abundance of rainfall over the country. The droughts and floods associated with the year-to-year variation of the average seasonal rainfall have devastating effect on people, agriculture and economy of this region. The demand for prediction of seasonal monsoon rainfall, therefore, is overwhelming. A number of attempts to predict the seasonal mean monsoon have been made over a century, but neither dynamical nor empirical models provide skillful forecasts of the extremes of the monsoon such as the unprecedented drought of 2002. This study investigates the problems and prospects of extended range monsoon prediction. An evaluation of the potential predictability of the ISM with the aid of an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations indicates that the interannual variability (IAV) of ISM is contributed equally by the slow boundary forcing (‘externally’ forced variability) and the inherent climate noise (‘internal’ variability) in the atmosphere. Success in predicting the ISM would depend on our ability to extract the predictable signal from a background of noise of comparable amplitude. This would be possible only if the ‘external’ variability is separable from the ‘internal’ variability. A serious effort has been made to understand and isolate the sea surface temperature (SST) forced component of ISM variability that is not strongly influenced by the ‘internal’ variability. In addition, we have investigated to unravel the mechanism of generation of ‘internal’ IAV so that the method of isolating it from forced variability may be found. Since the primary forcing mechanism of the monsoon is the large-scale meridional gradient of deep tropospheric heat sources, large-scale changes in tropospheric temperature (TT) due to the boundary forcing can induce interannual variations of the timing and duration of the monsoon season. The concept of interannually varying monsoon season is introduced here, with the onset and withdrawal of monsoon definitions based on the reversal of meridional gradient of TT between north and south. This large scale definition of the monsoon season is representative of the planetary scale influence of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monsoon through the modification of TT and the cross equatorial pressure gradient over the ISM region. A sig- nificant relationship between ENSO and monsoon, that has remained steady over the decades, is discovered by which an El Ni˜no (La Ni˜na) delays (advances) the onset, advances (delays) the withdrawal and suppresses (enhances) the strength of the monsoon. The integral effect of the meridional gradient of TT from the onset to withdrawal proves to be a useful index of seasonal monsoon which isolates the boundary forced signal from the influence of internal variations that has remained steady even in the recent decades. However, consistent with the estimates of potential predictability, the boundary forced variability isolated with the above definitions explains only about 50% of the total interannual variability of ISM. Detailed diagnostics of the onset and withdrawal processes are performed to understand how the ENSO forcing modifies the onset and withdrawal, and thus the seasonal mean monsoon. It is found that during an El Ni˜no, the onset is delayed due to the enhanced adiabatic subsidence that inhibits vertical mixing of sensible heating from the warm landmass during pre-monsoon months, and the withdrawal is advanced due to the horizontal advective cooling. This link between ENSO and monsoon is realized through the advective processes associated with the stationary waves in the upper troposphere set up by the tropical ENSO heating. The remaining 50% of the monsoon IAV is governed by internal processes. To unravel the mechanism of the generation of internal IAV, we perform another set of AGCM simulations, forced with climatological monthly mean SSTs, to extract the pure internal IAV. We find that the spatial structure of the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in these simulations has significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season (seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broadband nature of the ISO spectrum, allowing the intraseasonal time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relationship is a manifestation of the binomial character of the rainfall time series. The remaining part of IAV may arise due to the complex land-surface processes, scale interactions, etc. We also find that the ISOs over the ISM region are not significantly modulated by the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST variations. Thus, even with a perfect prediction of SST, only about 50% of the observed IAV of ISM could be predicted with the best model in forced mode. Even so, prediction of all India rainfall (AIR) representing the average conditions of the whole country and the season may not always serve the purposes of monsoon forecasting. One reason is the large inhomogeneities in the rainfall distribution during a normal seasonal monsoon. Agriculture and hydrological sector could benefit more if provided with regional scale forecasts of active/break spells 2-3 weeks ahead. Therefore, we advocate an alternative strategy to the seasonal prediction. Here, we present a method to estimate the potential predictability of active and break conditions from daily rainfall and circulation from observations for the recent 24 years. We discover that transitions from break to active conditions are much more chaotic than those from active to break, a fundamental property of the monsoon ISOs. The potential predictability limit of monsoon breaks (∼20 days) is significantly higher than that of the active conditions (∼10 days). An empirical real- time forecasting strategy to predict the sub-seasonal variations of monsoon up to 4 pentads (20 days) in advance is developed. The method is physically based, with the consideration that the large-scale spatial patterns and slow evolution of monsoon intraseasonal variations possess some similarity in their evolutions from one event to the other. This analog method is applied on NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) pentad mean data which is available on a near real time basis. The elimination of high frequency variability and the use of spatial and temporal analogs produces high and useful skill of predictions over the central and northern Indian region for a lead-time of 4-5 pentads. An important feature of this method is that, unlike other empirical methods to forecast monsoon ISOs, this uses minimal time filtering to avoid any possible end-point effects, and hence it has immense potential for real-time applications.

Title from PDF of title page. / Document formatted into pages; contains 79 pages. / Thesis (M.S.)--University of South Florida, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references. / Text (Electronic thesis) in PDF format. / ABSTRACT: Monthly d18O and Sr/Ca records generated from modern and fossil corals from Southwestern Pacific Ocean sites in the Republic of Vanuatu are used to assess the differences in mean climate state, seasonality, and interannual variability between a glacial and interglacial period. The modern coral contains a well-defined annual signal in d18O and Sr/Ca. The top 40 cm of the coral used in this study has a mean d18O value of -4.99+/-0.13%VPDB (2s) and a mean Sr/Ca value of 8.691+/-0.015mmol/mol (2s). El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are characterized by positive d18O and Sr/Ca anomalies, consistent with cooler temperatures and reduced rainfall that typifies ENSO at Vanuatu. The 12cm long fossil coral is dated to 346 ka + 25, - 9, based on uranium-series analysis and stratigraphic forward modeling, indicating that the fossil coral grew during MIS10 - a glacial period. / ABSTRACT: X-ray diffraction, petrographic inspection, SEM analysis, and geochemical considerations indicate excellent preservation. The mean d18O value is enriched by 0.74%, and the mean Sr/Ca value is equivalent, compared to the modern coral. Mathematical modeling of Pleistocene mean SST and SSS results in temperature estimates up to 2?C warmer and salinity up to 2 psu saltier than present-day conditions, if seawater Sr/Ca were 1-2% higher in MIS10. Our fossil coral data and modeling results preclude colder SST and lower SSS at Vanuatu during MIS10. Accurate estimates of past values of seawater Sr/Ca remain the largest obstacle to accurately reconstructing past tropical SST using pristine fossil corals. The fossil coral Sr/Ca annual range is similar to the modern range, indicating that seasonal SST ranges were similar, whereas the d18O annual range is about half that of the modern coral, indicating weaker past seasonal salinity variations. / ABSTRACT: The reduced seasonal SSS variations and increased SSTs near Vanuatu are interpreted as evidence that the SPCZ was displaced from its present location while the fossil coral lived. The geochemical response to El Nino events in the modern coral is observed twice in the fossil coral record, indicating that ENSO-like processes are not unique to interglacial time periods, but characterize the tropical Pacific at least back to MIS 10. / System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader. / Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Comprendre les mécanismes moteurs et pouvoir anticiper l'impact environnemental du phénomène El Niño Oscillation Australe (ENOA) constituent des enjeux scientifiques et sociétaux de première importance, notamment pour les Pays Emergents. Dans cette thèse, nous avons documenté et contrasté la signature de différents types d'ENOA - dits canoniques et Modoki - pour plusieurs variables climatiques essentielles (température et salinité de surface, niveau de la mer, courant de surface, précipitation, vent de surface, ...), analysé la pertinence de la théorie dite de recharge / décharge, une des quatre théories majeures d'ENOA, à rendre compte ou non de la nature quasi oscillatoire de ces différents types et quantifié l'impact potentiel des modifications des caractéristiques majeures d'ENOA sur notre interprétation des tendances climatiques à 'long' terme pour ces variables climatiques essentielles.

" Quels sont les pré-requis pour étudier l'influence du changement climatique simulé par les modèles couplés globaux de la génération actuelle sur le système d'upwelling du Pérou-Chili?" constitue la question centrale de cette thèse de doctorat. Grâce à une approche de downscaling (descente d'échelle) dynamique réalisé avec le modèle ROMS (Regional Oceanic Modelling System) pour une configuration au 1/6° de type eddy-resolving (cad qui permet de représenter les tourbillons mésoéchelle), nous espérons comprendre les processus qui vont contrôler les changements futurs de la circulation océanique dans cette région influencée par ENSO (El Niño-Oscillation Australe). Une étude des mécanismes physiques qui contrôlent la variabilité de type ENSO dans les simulations PI (pré-industrielles) réalisées avec les CGCMs (Modèles Couplés de Circulation Générale) de l'ensemble multi-modèle du WCRP-CMIP3 (les " modèles du GIEC ") permet d'identifier les modèles les plus fiables en termes de variabilité équatoriale. Elle est basée sur l'utilisation d'un modèle couplé intermédiaire du Pacifique tropical avec une stratification moyenne et un forçage de vent prescrits, afin de pouvoir dériver explicitement les termes d'advection du bilan de chaleur de la couche de mélange. Cette analyse permet de classifier les modèles en fonction de leur processus ENSO dominant: zonal advective feedback ou thermocline feedback. Les modèles au feedback hybride comme dans les observations représentent le mieux les processus couplés qui contrôlent la variabilité de la TSM, ce qui nous conduit à faire l'hypothèse que ce sont ceux qui fournissent les indices de confiance les plus élevés en termes de prédiction de l'évolution d'ENSO avec le réchauffement global. Parmi eux, deux CGCMs (IPSL-CM4 et INGV-ECHAM4) reproduisent le mieux l'état moyen ainsi que la variabilité intrasaisonnière à interannuelle de la température et des courants à la frontière Ouest du domaine du Pérou-Chili (100°W) et sont donc retenus pour des expériences de downscaling sur la région du HCS (Système de Courant de Humboldt). Les sorties océaniques des simulations PI et 4xCO2 (quadruplement de CO2) réalisées avec ces CGCMs sont utilisées directement comme conditions aux frontières ouvertes du modèle ROMS, tandis qu'un produit de vent haute-résolution (~50km) dérivé des CGCMs au moyen d'une méthode de downscaling statistique ainsi que les flux air-mer issus des CGCMs sont utilisés pour fournir le forçage atmosphérique. Par ailleurs, une simulation régionale de contrôle est réalisée à l'aide de ROMS avec des conditions aux frontières (réanalyse globale ORCA05 ½°) et un forçage atmosphérique (vents du satellite ERS et flux de la réanalyse atmosphérique globale ERA-40) réalistes sur la période 1992-2000. Cette simulation sert de référence pour les simulations de changement climatique régional. Elle permet notamment de documenter l'impact des ondes de Kelvin équatoriales intrasaisonnières sur la variabilité près de la côte, et illustrer ainsi l'importance du forçage à distance d'origine équatoriale pour la dynamique régionale du HCS. Nos résultats montrent en particulier que la latitude critique du modèle est située 5 à 15 degrés plus au sud que celle prédite par la théorie linéaire des ondes libres baroclines, surtout pour les oscillations autour de 120 jours. Le modèle régional présente une variabilité du large significative au sud de la latitude critique théorique, ce qui est également le cas dans les données satellite, soulignant ainsi les limites de la théorie linéaire dans le Pacifique Sud Est. De manière plus générale, ce travail propose une méthodologie pour effectuer des expériences de downscaling du changement climatique, qui constituent le lien nécessaire entre simulations du réchauffement global à l'échelle planétaire et études d'impact sur les écosystèmes, la pêche, l'agriculture et la société à l'échelle locale. Le travail contribue également à améliorer notre compréhension de certains mécanismes d'intérêt pour de telles études du changement climatique à l'échelle régionale.

Dans cette thèse, nous nous sommes consacrés au problème d'interaction d'échelles selon deux angles distincts : d'une part une approche globale et grande échelle du système climatique qui nous a permis d'étudier la modulation basse fréquence d'ENSO, d'autre part une démarche plus locale au cours de laquelle nous avons étudié plus particulièrement la dynamique du Pacifique tropical est et du système de courants de Humboldt au large du Pérou. La première partie a été motivée par une approche relativement récente dans la communauté des climatologues. Il s'agit de la question cruciale de la variabilité basse fréquence d'ENSO, et de la possibilité que celle-ci puisse émerger " simplement " du système climatique tropical, sans action extérieure qu'elle soit stochastique ou en lien avec la variabilité des plus hautes latitudesDans ce contexte particulier, il est alors question de mécanismes nonlinéaires pour expliquer comment la stabilité d'ENSO peut être influencée par la variabilité climatique. Ceci a servi d'hypothèse de travail pour l'ensemble de cette thèse. Nous avons ainsi abordé la possibilité qu'ENSO pouvait être rectifié sur des échelles de temps longues (interdécennales) par la modulation de la nonlinéarité elle-même. Pour cela, nous avons utilisé des méthodes mathématiques originales qui nous ont permis d'une part de détecter des changements brusques (statistiquement significatifs) de l'état moyen du Pacifique tropical et d'autre part d'accéder à un proxy de la nonlinéarité intégrée dans le système tropical. En combinant ces deux démarches, nous avons pu mettre en évidence une boucle de rétroaction auto entretenue sur des échelles de temps longues qui serait pilotée par des mécanismes nonlinéaires qui auraient la capacité de faire interférer diverses échelles temporelles et ainsi de transférer l'énergie des basses fréquences (état moyen du pacifique tropical) vers les hautes fréquences (oscillation australe) et vice-versa. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse nous nous sommes focalisés sur la modélisation climatique du Pacifique tropical oriental. En effet, cette région, pourtant au cœur des préoccupations de la communauté scientifique en raison de son écosystème parmi les plus productifs de la planète, reste mal connue du point de vue des processus océanographiques et climatiques. En particulier, les modèles climatiques globaux présentent des biais importants dans cette région en terme d'état climatologique moyen. Nous avons testé, dans une approche de modélisation haute résolution, différentes sources possibles de ces biais : les caractéristiques bathymétriques des îles Galápagos (mal représentées dans les modèles globaux) capables de par leur position équatoriale de modifier la circulation régionale moyenne et donc le bilan thermodynamique; ou alors les processus associés aux mélanges turbulents (et par extension les processus nonlinéaires) à l'aide d'un modèle régional. Pour ce faire, nous avons procédé à des expériences de sensibilité qui nous ont permis d'une part de relativiser le rôle de l'archipel des Galápagos comme source de biais et d'autre part de mettre en exergue le rôle de la variabilité intra-saisonnière dans la rectification de l'état moyen du Pacifique tropical est.

The West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) plays an important role in the global heat budget and global hydrologic cycle, so knowledge about its past variability would improve our understanding of global climate. Variations in WPWP precipitation are most notable during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, when climate changes in the tropical Pacific impact rainfall not only in the WPWP, but around the globe. The stalagmite records presented in this dissertation provide centennial-to-millennial-scale constraints of WPWP precipitation during three distinct climatic periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the last deglaciation, and the Holocene. In Chapter 2, the methodologies associated with the generation of U/Th-based absolute ages for the stalagmites are presented. In the final age models for the stalagmites, dates younger than 11,000 years have absolute errors of ±400 years or less, and dates older than 11,000 years have a relative error of ±2%. Stalagmite-specific 230Th/232Th ratios, calculated using isochrons, are used to correct for the presence of unsupported 230Th in a stalagmite at the time of formation. Hiatuses in the record are identified using a combination of optical properties, high 232Th concentrations, and extrapolation from adjacent U/Th dates. In Chapter 3, stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition (d18O) records from N. Borneo are presented which reveal millennial-scale rainfall changes that occurred in response to changes in global climate boundary conditions, radiative forcing, and abrupt climate changes. The stalagmite d18O records detect little change in inferred precipitation between the LGM and the present, although significant uncertainties are associated with the impact of the Sunda Shelf on rainfall d18O during the LGM. A millennial-scale drying in N. Borneo, inferred from an increase in stalagmite d18O, peaks at ~16.5ka coeval with timing of Heinrich event 1, possibly related to a southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). An inferred precipitation maximum (stalagmite d18O minimum) during the mid-Holocene in N. Borneo supports La Niña-like conditions and/or a southward migration of the ITCZ over the course of the Holocene as likely mechanisms for the observed millennial-scale trends. In Chapter 4, stalagmite Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and d13C records reflect hydrologic changes in the overlying karst system that are linked to a combination of rainfall variability and cave micro-environmental effects. Dripwater and stalagmite geochemistry suggest that prior calcite precipitation is a mechanism which alters dripwater geochemistry in slow, stalagmite-forming drips in N. Borneo. Stalagmite Mg/Ca ratios and d13C records suggest that the LGM climate in N. Borneo was drier and that ecosystem carbon cycling may have responded to the drier conditions. Large amplitude decadal- to centennial-scale variability in stalagmite Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and d13C during the deglaciation may be linked to deglacial abrupt climate change events.

Nas últimas décadas, particularmente desde a década de 1970, testemunhou-se um rápido recuo das geleiras em várias partes dos Andes tropicais. Uma tendência de aquecimento foi observada na região durante o mesmo período, com um hiato recente desde no início de 2010. No entanto, este hiato pode não ser o principal fator a influenciar as observações de aquecimento e recuo das geleiras em altitudes elevadas nos Andes tropicais. Com o surgimento de imagens de alta resolução espacial e espectral, e de modelos digitais de elevação (MDE) de alta resolução, agora é possível compreender as mudanças multitemporais das geleiras, o que era difícil de realizar utilizando as técnicas tradicionais e os dados de baixa resolução. Neste trabalho foram calculadas as variações da linha de neve das geleiras selecionadas ao longo dos Andes tropicais desde o início de 1980. A linha de neve máxima observada durante a estação seca (inverno austral) nos trópicos pode ser considerada como equivalente à linha de equilíbrio que separa a zona de acumulação da zona de ablação. A fim de reduzir o erro na estimativa da linha de neve foram consideradas somente as geleiras com declividades menores que 20o. Dependendo da região estudada e da presença de cobertura de nuvens, foram selecionadas imagens de várias fontes. As imagens da série Landsat (MSS, TM, ETM+ e OLI), EO1 OLI, ASTER e IRS LISS III foram usadas junto com MDE do ASTER GDEM-v2. Três bandas espectrais (TM5 - infravermelho médio, TM4- infravermelho próximo e TM2 - verde) foram utilizadas para calcular a linha de neve durante a estação seca, aplicando limiares adequados para TM4 e TM2. Os conjuntos de dados meteorológicos de várias fontes também foram analisados para observar as mudanças na precipitação, na temperatura e na umidade que influenciam os parâmetros glaciológicos como: o balanço de massa e a linha de equilíbrio. Geleiras representativas nos trópicos internos e trópicos externos foram consideradas separadamente dentro de um novo quadro, que foi baseado na precipitação, umidade e condições de temperatura ao longo da América do Sul. Neste âmbito, os Andes tropicais são classificados em trópicos internos, trópicos externos úmidos do norte, trópicos externos úmidos do sul e os trópicos externos secos. O Vulcão Cotopaxi no Equador (trópicos internos), o Nevado Caullaraju-Pastoruri que é uma geleira na Cordilheira Branca no Peru (trópicos externos úmidos do norte), o Nevado Cololo na Cordilheira Apolobamba na Bolívia (trópicos externos úmidos do sul), o Nevado Coropuna na Cordilheira Ampato no Peru e o Nevado Sajama na Cordilheira Ocidental da Bolívia (trópicos externos secos) são as geleiras representativas de cada grupo consideradas neste estudo. As geleiras tropicais nos trópicos internos, especialmente as situadas perto da Zona de Convergência Intertropicais (ZCIT), são mais vulneráveis a aumentos na temperatura e menos sensíveis a variações na precipitação. Em contraste, as geleiras nos trópicos externos respondem à variabilidade de precipitação muito rapidamente em comparação com a variação de temperatura, particularmente quando se deslocam para as regiões subtropicais. A dependência do balanço de massa sobre as características de sublimação também aumenta a partir dos trópicos internos para os trópicos externos. As condições de aquecimento, com maior umidade, tendem a aumentar a perda de massa por causa do derretimento em vez da sublimação. A elevação da umidade nos trópicos externos pode alterar as geleiras dominadas pela sublimação (nos trópicos externos e subtrópicos) e para as geleiras dominadas por derretimento. Observa-se que as geleiras próximas da ZCIT (trópicos internos e trópicosexternos úmidos do sul) estão recuando mais rapidamente como uma resposta ao aquecimento global, enquanto que as geleiras nos trópicos externos úmidos do norte e trópicos externos secos mostraram recuo relativamente mais lento. Possivelmente isso pode ser devido à ocorrência de fases frias do El Niño - Oscilação Sul (ENOS) conjuntamente com a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP). As anomalias observadas nas variáveis meteorológicas seguem os padrões de ODP e as variações anuais de linha de neve seguem eventos de El Niño particularmente na fase ODP quente. No entanto, uma forte correlação entre as variações da linha de neve e dos fenômenos ENOS (e ODP) não está estabelecida. As geleiras do Equador mostram menos retração em resposta à tendência de aquecimento se comparadas às observações feitas por outros pesquisadores na Colômbia e na Venezuela, provavelmente devido à grande altitude das geleiras equatorianas. Em poucas palavras, as geleiras menores e em baixas altitudes nos trópicos internos e trópicos externos úmidos do sul estão desaparecendo mais rapidamente do que outras geleiras nos Andes tropicais. Também se observou neste estudo a existência de uma propriedade direcional no recuo das geleiras, o que não se observou em quaisquer outros estudos recentes. As geleiras nas cordilheiras leste do Peru e da Bolívia, que alimentam muitos rios nos lados leste das cordilheiras orientais, estão recuando do que aquelas geleiras situadas nas encostas ocidentais dos Andes tropicais. / Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in many parts of the tropical Andes. A warming trend is observed in this region during the same period, with a recent hiatus since the early 2010s. However, this hiatus is observed to have not influenced the retreat of high elevation glaciers in the tropical Andes. Due to the emergence of high spatial and spectral resolution images and high quality digital elevation models (DEM), it is now possible to understand the multi-temporal glacier changes compared with the techniques that existed a few decades before. We calculated the snowline variations of selected glaciers along the tropical Andes since the early 1980s. The maximum snowline observed during the dry season (austral winter) in the tropics can be considered as nearly equivalent to the equilibrium line that separates the accumulation zone from the ablation zone. In order to reduce the error in the estimated snowline, glaciers with slopes < 20o only were considered in this research. Depending on the study region and the presence of cloud cover, images from multiple sources were selected. Landsat series (MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI), EO1 OLI, ASTER, and IRS LISS III images were used along with digital elevation models (DEM) from ASTER GDEM-v2. Three wavebands (TM5 - Middle Infrared, TM4 - Near Infrared, and TM2 - Green) were used to calculate the dry season snowline, after applying suitable threshold values to TM4 and TM2. Meteorological datasets from multiple sources were also analysed to observe the changes in precipitation, temperature, and humidity that influence key glaciological parameters such as the mass balance and the equilibrium line. Representative glaciers in the inner and the outer tropical Andes were considered separately within a new framework, which is based on the precipitation, humidity, and temperature conditions along the South America. In this framework, tropical Andes are classified in to inner tropics, northern wet outer tropics, southern wet outer tropics, and dry outer tropics. Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano, Ecuador (inner tropics), Nevado Caullaraju-Pastoruri Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (northern wet outer tropics), Nevado Cololo, Cordillera Apolobamba, Bolivia (southern wet outer tropics), and Nevado Coropuna, Cordillera Ampato Peru and Nevado Sajama, Cordillera Occidental, Bolivia (dry outer tropics) are the representative glaciers in each group considered in this study. Inner tropical glaciers, particularly those situated near the January Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are more vulnerable to increases in temperature and these glaciers are less sensitive to variations in precipitation. In contrast, outer tropical glaciers respond to precipitation variability very rapidly in comparison with the temperature variability, particularly when moving towards the subtropics. Mass balance dependency on sublimation characteristics also increases from the inner tropics to the outer tropics. Warming conditions with higher humidity tends to enhance mass loss due to melting rather than sublimation. Increased humidity observed in the outer tropics may change the sublimation dominated glaciers in the outer tropics and subtropics to melting dominated ones in the future. It is observed that the glaciers above and near the January ITCZ (inner tropics and southern wet outer tropics) are retreating faster as a response to global warming, whereas the glaciers in the northern wet outer tropics and dry outer tropics show relatively slower retreat. This can be possibly due to the occurrence of cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) together. The observed anomalies in the meteorological variables slightly follow PDO patterns and the variations in annual snowlines follows El Niño events, particularly when in phase with warm PDO. However, a strong correlation between snowline variations and ENSO (and PDO) is not established. Mountain glaciers in Ecuador show less retreat in response to the warming trend compared with observations done by other researchers in Colombia and Venezuela, probably due to very high altitude of the Ecuadorean glaciers. In a nutshell, smaller glaciers at lower altitudes in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics are disappearing faster than other glaciers in the tropical Andes. Another observation made in this study is the directional property of glacier retreat, which was not covered in any other recent studies. Those glaciers on the eastern cordilleras of Peru and Bolivia, which feed many rivers on the eastern sides of the eastern cordilleras, are retreating faster than those glaciers situated on the western sides.

Gladiola (Gladiolus x grandiflorus Hort.) is an important cut flower cultivated under field conditions. The air temperature is the main abiotic factor that drives their phenology, therefore the scheduling flowering of gladiola for target markets by defining the optimum planting date. The objective this study was determine the optimum planting date of gladiola aiming harvest spikes for selling on All Souls’ Day and Mother’s Day under current climate and in CMIP5 scenarios in the Rio Grande do Sul State. The PhenoGlad model was used for simulates the developmental stages of gladiola and plant injuries by heat and frost. For simulates the optimum planting date under current climate, input data in the model was minimum and maximum daily temperature of 55 years (1961-2015) from eighteen weather stations across the State. Once optimum planting date was simulated for each maturation group and weather station, with all years, the planting date was averaged for each El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases to access the ENSO effect on the optimum planting date of gladiola. For simulates the optimum planting date under climate scenarios, input data in the model was minimum and maximum daily temperature of the 32 grid points in the State, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The optimum planting date in the future period (2070-2098) was presented as anomalies (difference between the optimum planting date and average optimum planting date in the baseline period (1976-2005) for each grid point and maturation group. The percentage of years with damage was also presented as anomalies. The phenomenon ENSO affects the optimum planting date of gladiola for harvesting on All Souls’ Day. For this growing season, planting date was anticipated for La Niña years (low temperatures) and delayed for Very Strong El Niño (high temperatures). For Mother’s Day, only Very Strong El Niño events affect the development of the gladiola, but different of the growing season for All Souls’ Day, planting date was anticipated for Very Strong El Niño years, and delayed for others ENSO phases. As well as for Very Strong El Niño years, for harvesting on All Souls’ Day, the optimum planting date was delayed in the climate scenarios, due to shortening of the cycle on rising temperatures conditions. For Mother’s Day, the average air temperature exceeded the optimum temperature of the crop in the warmest regions of the State. In these regions, the anomalies of the optimum planting date were negatives because the development rate decreased, delaying flowering. The risk of injuries by heat is more severe in the growing season for harvesting on All Souls’ Day, mainly in the scenario RCP8.5 and warmest regions, where the anomalies reached +70% of years. This results will provide subsidies for the production expansion for others regions of the State in order to harvesting spikes for selling on All Souls’ Day and Mother’s Day. / O gladíolo (Gladiolus x grandiflorus Hort.) é uma importante flor de corte cultivada a céu aberto. A temperatura do ar é o principal fator abiótico que dirige sua fenologia, portanto os agricultores agendam o florescimento de gladíolo para os picos de demanda, definindo a data ótima de plantio. O objetivo desse estudo foi determinar a data ótima de plantio de gladíolo visando colheita das espigas para comercialização no Dia de Finados e Dia das Mães no clima atual e em cenários climáticos do CMIP5 no Rio Grande do Sul. O modelo PhenoGlad foi usado para simular os estágios de desenvolvimento do gladíolo e danos nas plantas por calor e geada. Para simular a data ótima de plantio no clima atual, os dados de entrada no modelo foram temperatura mínima e máxima diária do ar de 55 anos (1961-2015) de dezoito estações meteorológicas distribuídas no estado. Uma vez que a data ótima de plantio foi simulada para cada grupo de maturação e estação meteorológica, com todos os anos, foi realizada a média da data ótima de plantio para cada fase do El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) para acessar o efeito do fenômeno na data ótima de plantio de gladíolo. Para simular a data ótima de plantio nos cenários climáticos, os dados de entrada no modelo foram temperatura mínima e máxima diária do ar de 32 pontos distribuídos no estado, para os cenários RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.A data ótima de plantio no período futuro (2070-2098) foi apresentada como anomalias (diferença entre a data ótima de plantio do período futuro e a média da data ótima de plantio do período baseline (1976-2005) para cada ponto e grupo de maturação. A porcentagem de anos que ocorreu danos também foi apresentada como anomalias. O fenômeno ENOS afeta a data ótima de plantio de gladíolo para colheita no Dia de Finados. Neste período de cultivo, a data de plantio foi antecipada em anos de La Niña (temperaturas baixas) e atrasada em anos de El Niño muito forte (temperaturas altas). Para o Dia das Mães, somente eventos de El Niño muito forte afetaram o desenvolvimento do gladíolo, mas diferente do período de cultivo de Finados, a data de plantio foi antecipada para anos de El Niño muito forte e atrasada para as demais fases do ENSO. Assim como para anos de El Niño muito forte no cultivo de Dia de Finados, a data ótima de plantio foi atrasada nos cenários climáticos devido ao encurtamento do ciclo em condições de aumento de temperatura. Para o período de cultivo de Dia das Mães, a temperatura média ultrapassou a temperatura ótima da cultura nas regiões mais quentes do estado. Nessas regiões, as anomalias de data de plantio foram negativas porque a taxa de desenvolvimento diminuiu, atrasando a floração. O risco de danos nas espigas por calor é maior no cultivo de Dia de Finados, principalmente no cenário RCP8.5 e nas regiões mais quentes, onde as anomalias atingiram +70% dos anos. Esses resultados proporcionarão subsídios para a expansão da produção de gladíolo para outras regiões do estado, visando colheita das hastes para comercialização no Dia de Finados e no Dia das Mães.