Submitted by Verena Pereira (verenagoncalves@uefs.br) on 2018-07-17T23:10:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Adriano Almeida Alves.pdf: 5166503 bytes, checksum: b2f18c6fe26408f21cce673a336f447c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-17T23:10:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Adriano Almeida Alves.pdf: 5166503 bytes, checksum: b2f18c6fe26408f21cce673a336f447c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-14 / The creation of Conservation Units has been showing the most widespread idea in our current conception of nature conservation, mainly with the various transformations that occurred in the second half of the twentieth century. The Environmental Protection Areas (APA) are an example of Conservation Units, as is the case of APA Serra Branca, a Sustainable Use Conservation Unit. There are several criteria used for the delimitation of a Conservation Unit, and the risk of environmental vulnerability is one of them, so this work aimed to analyze the environmental vulnerability of the APA Serra Branca through environmental indicators for the elaboration of an Environmental Zoning, using variables that point out and quantify vulnerable areas as a means of responding if environmental indicators are capable of measuring environmental vulnerability, making it possible to infer about environmental sustainability and the possible fragilities and potentialities of the area. The application of geoprocessing techniques subsidized the analysis and integration of data and information, as well as the generation of products, such as cartographic. It was these techniques that made it possible to obtain the results such as: Map of Critical Areas; Modeling of the Environmental Vulnerability of the APA Serra Branca and Environmental Zoning of the APA Serra Branca. In order to define the critical areas, the criteria proposed by Bessa Junior and Muller were taken into account, taking into account environmental indicators (Hypsometry, Declivity, Hydrography) that were crossed through the intersection with the land Use and Coverage map. The modeling developed was based on criteria adapted from Crepani to local reality. The map of environmental vulnerability derived from map algebra related to the themes: Land Declivity, Use and Coverage, Geomorphology, Geology and Soils, for each variable, a vulnerability value was inserted through a map reclassification technique. As a final result, the Environmental Zoning was generated, which was derived from the intersection of the Environmental Vulnerability map with the Land Use and Coverage map. At the end of these stages, it was possible to observe the areas with greater environmental vulnerability, and the areas that were more stable, which represented the greater part of the APA Serra Branca area / A cria??o de Unidades de Conserva??o vem se mostrando a ideia mais difundida na nossa atual concep??o de conserva??o da natureza, principalmente com as diversas transforma??es que ocorreram na segunda metade do s?culo XX. As ?reas de Prote??o Ambiental (APA) s?o um exemplo de Unidades de Conserva??o, como ? o caso da APA Serra Branca, uma Unidade de Conserva??o de Uso Sustent?vel. S?o diversos os crit?rios utilizados para a delimita??o de uma Unidade de Conserva??o, e o risco a vulnerabilidade ambiental ? um deles, ent?o esse trabalho objetivou analisar a vulnerabilidade ambiental da APA Serra Branca atrav?s de indicadores ambientais para a elabora??o de um Zoneamento Ambiental, utilizando vari?veis que apontem e quantifiquem ?reas vulner?veis, como meio de responder se os indicadores ambientais s?o capazes de mensurar a vulnerabilidade ambiental, possibilitando inferir sobre a sustentabilidade ambiental e as poss?veis fragilidades e potencialidades da ?rea. A aplica??o de t?cnicas de geoprocessamento subsidiou a an?lise e integra??o de dados e informa??es, bem como a gera??o de produtos, como os cartogr?ficos. Foram essas t?cnicas que tornaram poss?vel a obten??o dos resultados tais como: Mapa de ?reas Cr?ticas; Modelagem da Vulnerabilidade Ambiental da APA Serra Branca e Zoneamento Ambiental da APA Serra Branca. Para definir as ?reas cr?ticas, foram seguidos crit?rios propostos por Bessa Junior e Muller, levando em considera??o, indicadores ambientais (Hipsometria, Declividade, Hidrografia) que foram cruzados atrav?s da interse??o com o mapa de Uso e Cobertura das Terras. A modelagem desenvolvida foi baseada nos crit?rios adaptados de Crepani ? realidade local. O mapa de vulnerabilidade ambiental derivou da ?lgebra de mapas relacionada aos temas: Declividade, Uso e Cobertura das Terras, Geomorfologia, Geologia e Solos, para cada vari?vel, foi inserido um valor de vulnerabilidade por meio de t?cnica de reclassifica??o de mapas. Como resultado final, foi gerado o Zoneamento Ambiental, que foi derivado da interse??o do mapa de Vulnerabilidade Ambiental com o mapa de Uso e Cobertura das Terras. Ao fim dessas etapas, foi poss?vel observar as ?reas com maior vulnerabilidade ambiental, e as ?reas que se encontravam com uma maior estabilidade, que representavam a maior parte da ?rea da APA Serra Branca

A pressão por aumento da produção agrícola, seja por abertura de novas áreas, seja por aumento de produtividade, tem um impacto direto no uso e conservação do solo. A cana-de-açúcar, por ser uma cultura híbrida- alimentar e energética, tem grande relevância estratégica e seu sistema de produção muito ligado à agroindústria. Seu sistema de produção, portanto, tem pressão direta para uma maior eficiência (indústria), mas também para mecanismos ambientalmente mais sustentáveis (sociedade). O primeiro artigo apresentado foi uma sistematização da regulamentação legal e da produção científica na área de conservação de solo no Brasil e uma análise comparativa de ambos elementos: regulamentação e ciência. O arcabouço legal brasileiro sobre a conservação de solo reconhece sua importância, mas apresenta poucas ferramentas práticas efetivas. Existem políticas de incentivos econômicos à produção em nível federal e são observadas regulamentações para a penalização de danos causados ao solo, apenas em nível estadual (4 estados). Outros 4 estados preveem sistemas de PSA. No geral, a decisão de se conservar o solo é privada, não sendo direcionada ou induzida por um regulamento (salvo exceções). A produção científica tem uma abordagem predominantemente privada, contribuindo com soluções e compreensão dos impactos internos ao sistema agrícola. Os estudos que abordam as externalidades do processo erosivo, ou que possuem o entendimento da conservação de solo como um serviço ambiental, estão em menor número quando comparados aos estudos de abordagem privada. O estabelecimento de normatização que contemple os princípios básicos do direito ambiental (precaução, responsabilidade e poluidor-pagador) e os diferentes instrumentos (comando e controle e incentivos econômicos) é um caminho promissor para a regular o uso do solo de forma sustentável. Uma produção científica oriunda de linhas de pesquisa que contemplem as externalidades do processo erosivo pode contribuir para o estabelecimento destas normas de forma mais clara, viável e efetiva. A importância de modelos para estudo da erosão vem da dificuldade de montar experimentos de mensuração de perda de solo em campo. O Fator C (RUSLE) congrega a cobertura e o manejo das culturas. Dada a variabilidade de manejo da cana-de-açúcar, buscou-se no segundo capítulo compilar e analisar trabalhos que geraram ou citaram o valor de C. Levantou-se 39 trabalhos científicos, com valores que variam de 0.0012 a 0.5800. Este intervalo resulta em uma variação de mais de 480 vezes nos valores finais de perda de solo. Uma grande lacuna de valores de Fator C para variadas condições de manejo é observada, bem como a falta de clareza e critérios no uso de valores por modeladores e pesquisadores. Neste sentido, o terceiro artigo é uma contribuição para sintetizar o conhecimento local da cultura, na forma de uma ferramenta de cálculo do Fator C para a cultura. A ferramenta permite mais de 100 milhões de combinações e está em ambiente acessível e com interface simplificada (Excel). Os valores obtidos pela ferramenta são comparáveis aos desenvolvidos em campo. A amplitude máxima e mínima (0.5922 a 0.0351) observada reafirma a importância do conhecimento completo das condições de manejo da área de estudo para sua modelagem. A ferramenta é gratuita e está disponível para pesquisadores. / The pressure for increased agricultural production, either by opening new areas or by increasing productivity, has a direct impact in the soil use and conservation. Sugarcane, because it is a hybrid food and energy crop, has great strategic relevance and its production system closely linked to agroindustry. Its production system, therefore, has direct pressure for greater efficiency (industry), but also for more environmentally sustainable mechanisms (society). The first article presented was a systematization of legal regulation and scientific production in the area of soil conservation in Brazil and a comparative analysis of both elements: regulation and science. The Brazilian legal framework on soil conservation recognizes its importance, but presents few effective practical tools. There are policies of economic incentives for production at the federal level and regulations are observed to penalize damages to the soil, only at the state level (4 states). Another 4 states provide PSA systems. In general, the decision to conserve the soil is private, not being directed or induced by a regulation (with exceptions). Scientific production has a predominantly private approach, contributing with solutions and understanding of the internal impacts to the agricultural system. Studies that address the erosion process externalities, or that have the understanding of soil conservation as an environmental service, are less numerous when compared to the private approach studies. The establishment of standardization that contemplates the basic principles of environmental law (precaution, responsibility and polluter-payer) and the different instruments (command and control and economic incentives) is a promising way to regulate the use of the soil in a sustainable way. A scientific production derived from lines of research that contemplate the externalities of the erosive process can contribute to the establishment of these norms in a clearer, viable and effective way. The importance of models for the study of erosion comes from the difficulty of assembling soil loss measurement experiments in the field. C-Factor (RUSLE) brings together the coverage and management of crops. Considering the variability of sugarcane management, the second chapter compiled and analyzed works that generated or quoted the value of C. 39 scientific works, with values ranging from 0.0012 to 0.5800 were survey. This interval results in a variation of more than 480 times in the final values of soil loss. A large gap of C-Factor values for various management conditions is observed, as well as the lack of clarity and criteria in the use of values by modelers and researchers. In this sense, the third article is a contribution to synthesize local knowledge of culture, in the form of a tool for calculating C-Factor for culture. The tool allows more than 100 million combinations and is in an accessible environment with a simplified interface (Excel). The values obtained by the tool are comparable to those developed in the field. The maximum and minimum amplitude (0.5922 to 0.0351) observed reaffirms the importance of the complete knowledge of the management conditions of the study area for its modeling. The tool is free and available to researchers.

A bacia hidrográfica do Arroio Marrecas, localizada na porção nordeste do município de Caxias do Sul, RS, abriga os principais mananciais de água para abastecimento da crescente população na região, além de importantes fragmentos de Mata Atlântica e Campos Sulinos. Este estudo buscou analisar as alterações de uso das terras em escala espaço-temporal nos últimos 48 anos, analisar a relação entre a qualidade das águas superficiais, utilizando dados de campanhas de monitoramento entre 2010 e 2011, e o uso atual das terras e simular a dinâmica de cenários futuros para um período de 15 anos. As ferramentas utilizadas na primeira etapa foram interpretação visual de imagens de satélite e fotos aéreas, apoiadas em campanhas de levantamento a campo. A posteriori, foi construído um banco de dados geoespaciais e a simulação espacial utilizando o modelo Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). Os resultados obtidos na primeira etapa indicam um decréscimo das áreas originalmente ocupadas por campos e matas, o que pode ser atribuído ao crescente processo de urbanização e a expansão de atividades agrícolas intensivas como fruticultura e silvicultura, similar àquela observada em outras regiões na Serra Gaúcha A avaliação da qualidade de água mostra que a alteração na concentração de alguns parâmetros relacionou-se com o uso das terras. Embora os parâmetros Turbidez, Fósforo Total e Coliformes Termotolerantes tenham ultrapassado os limites de Classe 2 (Conama nº 257/2005) em algumas campanhas, a análise de correlação não conseguiu discriminar fatores explanatórios de maneira conclusiva. Quando analisados os resultados da modelagem, observou-se que a dinâmica de realocação dos usos e coberturas das terras nos planos de informação são definidos ou explicitados prioritariamente pelos seguintes fatores explanatórios: Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico e Neossolo Litólico, declividade e elevação do terreno. Análises apoiadas em ferramentas de estatística, geoprocessamento e campanhas de levantamento in situ como as aplicadas neste estudo podem ser instrumentos cruciais para o entendimento da evolução dos usos das terras, servindo de referencial para resolução de potenciais conflitos e mitigação dos impactos ambientais e socioeconômicos que se apresentam. / The Arroio Marrecas watershed, located in the northeastern section Caxias do Sul municipality, is a major drinking water source for the growing population in the region, and contains important fragments of subtropical forests and grasslands. This study investigates land use changes in a spatiotemporal scale in the Arroio Marrecas watershed in the last 48 years, analyze the relationship between the quality of surface water, using data from monitoring campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011, and the current land use and simulates the dynamics of future scenarios for a period of 15 years. Tools used in the first stage were visual interpretation of satellite images and aerial photos, supported by the field survey campaigns were used. Subsequently, it was built from a geospatial database and the spatial simulation using the model Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). The results obtained in the first step indicate a decrease in the areas originally occupied by forests and grasslands, which can be attributed to increasing urbanization and the expansion of intensive agricultural production such as horticulture and forestry, similar to that observed in other parts of the highlands of Rio Grande do Sul (Serra Gaúcha) The evaluation of water quality shows that the change in concentration of some parameters was related to the use of the land. Water quality parameters like turbidity, total phosphorus and thermotolerant coliform were above Class 2 limits (CONAMA Resolution 257/2005) in some campaigns, a correlation analysis could not conclusively discriminate the main explanatory factor. On the other hand, a modeling exercise of future ladn use scenarios with the CLUE-S model revealed that dynamic reallocation of land use/land cover were defined primarily by soil classes Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico and Neossolo Litólico, elevation and slope. Analysis supported by statistical geoprocessing tools and field surveys as applied in this study can be crucial tools for understanding the evolution of land uses and serve to resolve potential conflicts and mitigate environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

A bacia hidrográfica do Arroio Marrecas, localizada na porção nordeste do município de Caxias do Sul, RS, abriga os principais mananciais de água para abastecimento da crescente população na região, além de importantes fragmentos de Mata Atlântica e Campos Sulinos. Este estudo buscou analisar as alterações de uso das terras em escala espaço-temporal nos últimos 48 anos, analisar a relação entre a qualidade das águas superficiais, utilizando dados de campanhas de monitoramento entre 2010 e 2011, e o uso atual das terras e simular a dinâmica de cenários futuros para um período de 15 anos. As ferramentas utilizadas na primeira etapa foram interpretação visual de imagens de satélite e fotos aéreas, apoiadas em campanhas de levantamento a campo. A posteriori, foi construído um banco de dados geoespaciais e a simulação espacial utilizando o modelo Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). Os resultados obtidos na primeira etapa indicam um decréscimo das áreas originalmente ocupadas por campos e matas, o que pode ser atribuído ao crescente processo de urbanização e a expansão de atividades agrícolas intensivas como fruticultura e silvicultura, similar àquela observada em outras regiões na Serra Gaúcha A avaliação da qualidade de água mostra que a alteração na concentração de alguns parâmetros relacionou-se com o uso das terras. Embora os parâmetros Turbidez, Fósforo Total e Coliformes Termotolerantes tenham ultrapassado os limites de Classe 2 (Conama nº 257/2005) em algumas campanhas, a análise de correlação não conseguiu discriminar fatores explanatórios de maneira conclusiva. Quando analisados os resultados da modelagem, observou-se que a dinâmica de realocação dos usos e coberturas das terras nos planos de informação são definidos ou explicitados prioritariamente pelos seguintes fatores explanatórios: Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico e Neossolo Litólico, declividade e elevação do terreno. Análises apoiadas em ferramentas de estatística, geoprocessamento e campanhas de levantamento in situ como as aplicadas neste estudo podem ser instrumentos cruciais para o entendimento da evolução dos usos das terras, servindo de referencial para resolução de potenciais conflitos e mitigação dos impactos ambientais e socioeconômicos que se apresentam. / The Arroio Marrecas watershed, located in the northeastern section Caxias do Sul municipality, is a major drinking water source for the growing population in the region, and contains important fragments of subtropical forests and grasslands. This study investigates land use changes in a spatiotemporal scale in the Arroio Marrecas watershed in the last 48 years, analyze the relationship between the quality of surface water, using data from monitoring campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011, and the current land use and simulates the dynamics of future scenarios for a period of 15 years. Tools used in the first stage were visual interpretation of satellite images and aerial photos, supported by the field survey campaigns were used. Subsequently, it was built from a geospatial database and the spatial simulation using the model Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). The results obtained in the first step indicate a decrease in the areas originally occupied by forests and grasslands, which can be attributed to increasing urbanization and the expansion of intensive agricultural production such as horticulture and forestry, similar to that observed in other parts of the highlands of Rio Grande do Sul (Serra Gaúcha) The evaluation of water quality shows that the change in concentration of some parameters was related to the use of the land. Water quality parameters like turbidity, total phosphorus and thermotolerant coliform were above Class 2 limits (CONAMA Resolution 257/2005) in some campaigns, a correlation analysis could not conclusively discriminate the main explanatory factor. On the other hand, a modeling exercise of future ladn use scenarios with the CLUE-S model revealed that dynamic reallocation of land use/land cover were defined primarily by soil classes Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico and Neossolo Litólico, elevation and slope. Analysis supported by statistical geoprocessing tools and field surveys as applied in this study can be crucial tools for understanding the evolution of land uses and serve to resolve potential conflicts and mitigate environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

Les insectes ravageurs constituent depuis longtemps une menace sérieuse pour l’agriculture dans plusieurs régions du monde. En particulier, les criquets pèlerins (Schistocerca Gregaria) sont les plus redoutés à cause des dégâts colossaux qu’ils peuvent infliger à une large variété de cultures. Ces derniers, dans leur milieu de reproduction et un ensemble de paramètres climatiques, peuvent être assimilés à un système biophysique. Un système biophysique associe plusieurs composants caractérisés par leur complexité propre et celle de leurs interactions. Par exemple la pluie apporte de l’humidité et le développement du couvert végétal qui sont critiques dans la dynamique de population du criquet pèlerin. Ces systèmes biophysiques peuvent être contrôlés par divers moyens, dont un réseau de surveillance couplant des capteurs sans fil. L’intégration des systèmes biophysiques et des réseaux d’observation peut être un des faits majeurs de cette décennie. Elle permet un échange entre les processus cycliques physiques et les systèmes d’information. Ces derniers permettent de collecter et de traiter les données de terrain et peuvent aussi agir sur le système physique par le biais de boucles rétro-actives. Cette intégration a été possible grâce aux avancées technologiques notées dans les domaines de la micro électronique et de la transmission sans fil. On la trouve dans des domaines émergents tels que l’agriculture fine. Cette thèse est consacrée à la modélisation cellulaire et à la simulation de systèmes physiques. Pour cela, un échantillonnage spatial et temporel d’une zone de reproduction des criquets pèlerins a été réalisé à l’aide d’outils spécifiques avec différentes résolutions, dans le but de générer les systèmes cellulaires. Ces systèmes cellulaires contiennent des informations telles que le vent, la température, l’humidité relative et la pluviométrie. L’échantillonnage spatial permet une représentation de migration et l’échantillonnage temporel permet de suivre l’évolution locale des individus dans une cellule.Les systèmes cellulaires sont transcrits en réseaux de processus communicant et évoluent de manière synchrone afin de reproduire et de simuler le phénomène de migration intercellulaire et le cycle de vie du criquet pèlerin dans une cellule. La construction de ces systèmes a été explorée en profondeur, en faisant varier leur contexte géographique, les critères de classification, la dimension des cellules, la connectivité entre les processus, les comportements collectifs. L’exploration a porté sur la génération de codes parallèles et les performances à l’exécution, essentiellement pour le cas des processus légers.Ce travail a abouti à la production de deux simulateurs paramétriques, le premier est destiné à la dynamique de population des criquets pèlerins en vue d’évaluer l’état de la situation acridienne par un couplage entre les réseaux de surveillance synchrones et les systèmes biophysiques. Le second permet de planifier le déploiement de réseaux de capteurs sans fil dans une zone afin de déterminer l’emplacement des capteurs. / Insect pests have long been a serious threat to agriculture in many parts of the world. In particular, desert locusts (Schistocerca Gregaria) are the most feared because of the colossal damage they can inflict on a wide variety of crops.The latter, in their breeding environment and a set of climatic parameters, can be assimilated to a biophysical system. A biophysical system associates several components characterized by their own complexity and that of their interactions. For example, rain brings moisture and canopy development that is critical in Desert Locust population dynamics. These biophysical systems can be controlled by various means, including a monitoring network coupling wireless sensors. The integration of biophysical systems and observation networks can be one of the major events of this decade. It allows an exchange between physical cyclical processes and information systems. These can collect and process field data and can also act on the physical system through feedback loops. This integration has been made possible thanks to technological advances noted in the fields of microelectronics and wireless transmission. It is found in emerging fields such as fine agriculture. This thesis is devoted to cellular modeling and simulation of physical systems. For this, a spatial and temporal sampling of a Desert Locust breeding area was carried out using specific tools with different resolutions, in order to generate the cellular systems. These cellular systems contain information such as wind, temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. Spatial sampling allows a migration representation and temporal sampling can track the local evolution of individuals in a cell.Cellular systems are transcribed into communicating process networks and evolve synchronously to reproduce and simulate the phenomenon of intercellular migration and the life cycle of the Desert Locust in a cell. The construction of these systems has been explored in depth, making vary their geographical context, the criteria for classification, the cells, connectivity between processes, collective behaviors.Exploration has focused on the generation of parallel codes and performance at the execution, mainly for the case of lite processes.This work has led to the production of two parametric simulators, the first of which is aimed at Desert Locust population dynamics with a view to assessing the state of the locust situation through coupling between synchronous monitoring networks and biophysical systems. The second allows you to plan the deployment of wireless sensor networks in an area to determine the location of the sensors.

A bacia hidrográfica do Arroio Marrecas, localizada na porção nordeste do município de Caxias do Sul, RS, abriga os principais mananciais de água para abastecimento da crescente população na região, além de importantes fragmentos de Mata Atlântica e Campos Sulinos. Este estudo buscou analisar as alterações de uso das terras em escala espaço-temporal nos últimos 48 anos, analisar a relação entre a qualidade das águas superficiais, utilizando dados de campanhas de monitoramento entre 2010 e 2011, e o uso atual das terras e simular a dinâmica de cenários futuros para um período de 15 anos. As ferramentas utilizadas na primeira etapa foram interpretação visual de imagens de satélite e fotos aéreas, apoiadas em campanhas de levantamento a campo. A posteriori, foi construído um banco de dados geoespaciais e a simulação espacial utilizando o modelo Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). Os resultados obtidos na primeira etapa indicam um decréscimo das áreas originalmente ocupadas por campos e matas, o que pode ser atribuído ao crescente processo de urbanização e a expansão de atividades agrícolas intensivas como fruticultura e silvicultura, similar àquela observada em outras regiões na Serra Gaúcha A avaliação da qualidade de água mostra que a alteração na concentração de alguns parâmetros relacionou-se com o uso das terras. Embora os parâmetros Turbidez, Fósforo Total e Coliformes Termotolerantes tenham ultrapassado os limites de Classe 2 (Conama nº 257/2005) em algumas campanhas, a análise de correlação não conseguiu discriminar fatores explanatórios de maneira conclusiva. Quando analisados os resultados da modelagem, observou-se que a dinâmica de realocação dos usos e coberturas das terras nos planos de informação são definidos ou explicitados prioritariamente pelos seguintes fatores explanatórios: Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico e Neossolo Litólico, declividade e elevação do terreno. Análises apoiadas em ferramentas de estatística, geoprocessamento e campanhas de levantamento in situ como as aplicadas neste estudo podem ser instrumentos cruciais para o entendimento da evolução dos usos das terras, servindo de referencial para resolução de potenciais conflitos e mitigação dos impactos ambientais e socioeconômicos que se apresentam. / The Arroio Marrecas watershed, located in the northeastern section Caxias do Sul municipality, is a major drinking water source for the growing population in the region, and contains important fragments of subtropical forests and grasslands. This study investigates land use changes in a spatiotemporal scale in the Arroio Marrecas watershed in the last 48 years, analyze the relationship between the quality of surface water, using data from monitoring campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011, and the current land use and simulates the dynamics of future scenarios for a period of 15 years. Tools used in the first stage were visual interpretation of satellite images and aerial photos, supported by the field survey campaigns were used. Subsequently, it was built from a geospatial database and the spatial simulation using the model Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). The results obtained in the first step indicate a decrease in the areas originally occupied by forests and grasslands, which can be attributed to increasing urbanization and the expansion of intensive agricultural production such as horticulture and forestry, similar to that observed in other parts of the highlands of Rio Grande do Sul (Serra Gaúcha) The evaluation of water quality shows that the change in concentration of some parameters was related to the use of the land. Water quality parameters like turbidity, total phosphorus and thermotolerant coliform were above Class 2 limits (CONAMA Resolution 257/2005) in some campaigns, a correlation analysis could not conclusively discriminate the main explanatory factor. On the other hand, a modeling exercise of future ladn use scenarios with the CLUE-S model revealed that dynamic reallocation of land use/land cover were defined primarily by soil classes Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico and Neossolo Litólico, elevation and slope. Analysis supported by statistical geoprocessing tools and field surveys as applied in this study can be crucial tools for understanding the evolution of land uses and serve to resolve potential conflicts and mitigate environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

Forecasted changes to climate and land use were used to model variations in the streamflow characteristics of Occoquan watershed and water quality in the Occoquan reservoir. The combination of these two driving forces has created four themes and an integrated complexly-linked watershed-reservoir model was used to run the simulations. Two emission scenarios from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), along with four General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using two statistical downscaling methods, were applied to drive the Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) and CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) in two future time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100). Incorporation of these factors yielded 68 simulation models which were compared with historical streamflow and water quality data from the late 20th century. Climate change is projected to increase surface air temperature and precipitation depth in the study area in the future. Using climate change only, an increase in high and median flows and decrease in low flows are projected. Changes in flow characteristics are more pronounced when only future land use changes are considered, with increases in high, median and low flows. Under the joint examination of the driving forces, an amplifying effect on the high flows and median flows observed. In contrast, climate change is projected to dampen the extreme increases in the low flows created by the land use change. Surface water temperatures are projected to increase as a result of climate change in the Occoquan reservoir, while these changes are not very noticeable under the effect of land use change only. It is expected that higher water temperatures will promote decreased oxygen solubility and greater heterotrophy. Moreover, longer anoxic conditions are projected at the bottom of the reservoir. Results indicate that higher water temperature will increase the denitrifying capacity of the reservoir, especially during summer months, further reducing the nitrate concentration in the reservoir. / PHD / Water resources managers are facing a new set of challenges of developing strategies to address the regional impacts of climate change and land use change, especially in metropolitan areas. Simulating climate change and land use change scenarios can shed light on mitigation and adaption approaches for water resources management as well as future designs (for example, infrastructure, agriculture, irrigation, etc. among other sectors). The focus of this study is the Occoquan watershed with an area of 1530 km² (590 square miles) which includes the 1700-acre Occoquan reservoir that yields about 40% of the drinking water supply of near 2.0 million residents in northern Virginia. The Occoquan watershed located approximately 40 km to the southwest of Washington, D.C. and is situated in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United Sates with four distinct seasons and is part of a bigger watershed known as the Potomac River Watershed. The primary aim of this research is to provide an improved, quantitative understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and land use change on the Occoquan watershed. The findings of this research can benefit future water supply reliability and mitigation strategies in the study area considering this watershed’s essential role as a water supplier in northern Virginia.

Development and population are rapidly increasing in urbanizing areas of North Texas and so is the need to understand changes in storm water runoff flow and its contamination by nutrients, sediment, pesticides and other toxicants. This study contributes to this understanding and has two primary components: first, development of a graphical user interface for a geographic information system and storm water management database, and second, performing a two-scale hydrological modeling approach (the US Corp of Engineers HEC-HMS model and the US Environmental Protection Agency SWMM model). Both primary components are used together as a toolkit to support the storm water management program of the City of Carrollton, located in North Texas. By focusing limited city resources, the toolkit helps storm water managers in the process of compliance with federal regulations, especially the National Pollution Discharge Elimination System permit, and provides guidance for reporting, planning and investigation. A planning example was conducted by modeling potential changes in storm water quality due to projections of land use based on the City of Carrollton's Comprehensive Plan. An additional component of this study is the evaluation of future changes in surface water quantity and quality in the North Central Texas area, specifically in a rural but rapidly urbanizing subbasin area of the greater Lake Lewisville watershed. This was accomplished using the US Corp of Engineers HEC-HMS hydrological model. Precipitation scenarios were derived from years of historically high, medium, and low annual precipitation. Development scenarios were derived from current land use in the Lake Lewisville sub basin, current land use in the city of Carrollton, and from Markov projections based on recent land use change calculated from satellite images of 1988 and 1999. This information is useful for future land use planning and management of water resources in North Texas.

Esta dissertação desenvolveu duas análises de natureza diferente, mas complementares, uma vez que são unidas por uma mesma questão. Esta questão diz respeito à utilização do gás natural veicular em substituição ao óleo diesel em ônibus urbanos. O autor argumenta que, devido a suas características técnicas, o gás natural pode contribuir para a promoção de um transporte mais sustentável, mesmo que o gás natural seja um combustível igualmente não renovável, como o óleo diesel. Na primeira análise desenvolvida, utiliza-se uma metodologia bottom-up para demonstrar os ganhos ambientais que podem ser alcançados ao se substituir o óleo diesel por gás natural em ônibus urbanos. Adota-se a cidade de São Paulo como estudo de caso. Esses ganhos ambientais manifestam-se tanto na redução das emissões de poluentes locais, como material particulado, monóxido de carbono e óxidos de enxofre, conduzindo a melhoras importantes na qualidade de vida das pessoas que sofrem os efeitos nocivos dessas emissões (usuários ou não do transporte público urbano), como, também, no declínio das emissões de gases de efeito estufa, especialmente o dióxido de carbono, levando a benefícios ambientais globais. Os resultados amparam o uso do gás natural em ônibus como uma estratégia de maior sustentabilidade no plano ambiental. Já, na segunda análise desenvolvida, a pesquisa levanta as questões seguintes: Quais outros parâmetros influenciam a decisão de se promover a substituição de combustíveis em ônibus urbanos? Quais critérios explicam as escolhas por distintos combustíveis substitutos? As respostas a essas questões são obtidas através de uma Análise Qualitativa Comparativa (AQC). A pesquisa comparou 39 cidades em todo o mundo, que adotaram combustíveis substitutos ao óleo diesel em ônibus urbanos, incluindo o gás natural, biocombustíveis, eletricidade e hidrogênio. Os resultados atestam que as cidades de fato utilizam-se da substituição de combustíveis para tornar o transporte mais sustentável. Observa-se que a opção pelo gás natural é acolhida na maioria dos casos analisados como uma opção com vantagens ambientais e economicamente mais atrativa. A principal razão para sua eventual não adoção identifica-se com a insegurança energética. Algumas cidades receiam depender de um combustível que, assim como o petróleo (do qual o óleo diesel é um derivado), também está afeito a importantes suscetibilidades geopolíticas. A conclusão do trabalho reforça a importância do gás natural como um combustível ambientalmente mais amigável, e que pode contribuir na busca das cidades por sistemas de transporte público mais sustentáveis, especialmente em grandes áreas metropolitanas. Olhando, especificamente, o caso da cidade de São Paulo, com desdobramentos para o Brasil como um todo, a pesquisa enfatiza a necessidade de se superar barreiras regulatórias, e de se comprovar vantagens econômicas e de segurança de suprimento energético, para que o gás natural possa confirmar-se atrativo e mais sustentável aos olhares dos gestores dos sistemas de transporte público urbanos. Esses temas não podem ser deslembrados ao se propor uma política mais racional de combustíveis para o transporte público das grandes cidades brasileiras. / This work has developed two analyzes of different kinds, but complementary, since they are united by the same issue. This issue relates to the use of compressed natural gas to replace diesel fuel in city buses. The author argues that, due to its technical characteristics, natural gas can contribute to the promotion of more sustainable transport, even though the gas is a non-renewable fuel, such as diesel oil. In the first in-depth analysis, a bottom-up methodology is used in order to demonstrate the environmental benefits that can be achieved by replacing the diesel oil with natural gas in urban buses. The city of São Paulo is adopted as a case study. These environmental gains are manifested both in reducing emissions of local pollutants such as particulate matter, carbon monoxide and sulfur oxides, leading to significant improvements in quality of life of people suffering the harmful effects of the emissions (both public urban transport users and non-users), and also in the decline of emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, leading to global environmental benefits. The results bolster the use of natural gas buses as a more sustainable strategy in environmental terms. In the second developed analysis, the research raises the following questions: What other parameters influence the decision to encourage the substitution of urban buses in fuels? What criteria explain the choices for different substitute fuels? The answers to these questions are obtained from a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). The study compared 39 cities across the world that have adopted fuel substitutes to diesel fuel in urban buses, including natural gas, biofuels, electricity and hydrogen. The results show that in fact, cities are use fuel shifting as a way to turn its transport system more sustainable. It is observed that the option for natural gas is considered, in most analyzed cases, as an option with environmental advantages and economically more attractive. The main reason for natural gas non-adoption was identified as energy insecurity. Some cities fear depending on a fuel that, like petroleum (of which diesel oil is a derivative), is also sensitive to relevant geopolitical issues. The conclusion of the work reinforces the importance of natural gas as a more environmentally friendly fuel, and can contribute to the promotion more sustainable public transport systems in cities, especially in large metropolitan areas. Looking specifically at the case of the city of São Paulo, as well as considering Brazil as a whole, the research emphasizes the need to overcome regulatory barriers, and to prove economic benefits and energy supply security, so that the natural gas can confirm is attractive and more sustainable to the eyes of managers of urban public transport systems. These issues cannot be forgotten in order to propose a more rational policy of fuel for public transport in large Brazilian cities.

Die Anwendung von Methodiken und Technologien aus dem Bereich der Softwaretechnik auf den Bereich der Umweltmodellierung ist eine gemeinhin akzeptierte Vorgehensweise. Im Rahmen der "modellgetriebenen Entwicklung"(MDE, model-driven engineering) werden Technologien entwickelt, die darauf abzielen, Softwaresysteme vorwiegend auf Basis von im Vergleich zu Programmquelltexten relativ abstrakten Modellen zu entwickeln. Ein wesentlicher Bestandteil von MDE sind Techniken zur effizienten Entwicklung von "domänenspezifischen Sprachen"( DSL, domain-specific language), die auf Sprachmetamodellen beruhen. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt, wie modellgetriebene Entwicklung, und insbesondere die metamodellbasierte Beschreibung von DSLs, darüber hinaus Aspekte der Pragmatik unterstützen kann, deren Relevanz im erkenntnistheoretischen und kognitiven Hintergrund wissenschaftlichen Forschens begründet wird. Hierzu wird vor dem Hintergrund der Erkenntnisse des "modellbasierten Forschens"(model-based science und model-based reasoning) gezeigt, wie insbesondere durch Metamodelle beschriebene DSLs Möglichkeiten bieten, entsprechende pragmatische Aspekte besonders zu berücksichtigen, indem sie als Werkzeug zur Erkenntnisgewinnung aufgefasst werden. Dies ist v.a. im Kontext großer Unsicherheiten, wie sie für weite Teile der Umweltmodellierung charakterisierend sind, von grundsätzlicher Bedeutung. Die Formulierung eines sprachzentrierten Ansatzes (LCA, language-centered approach) für die Werkzeugunterstützung konkretisiert die genannten Aspekte und bildet die Basis für eine beispielhafte Implementierung eines Werkzeuges mit einer DSL für die Beschreibung von Zellulären Automaten (ZA) für die Umweltmodellierung. Anwendungsfälle belegen die Verwendbarkeit von ECAL und der entsprechenden metamodellbasierten Werkzeugimplementierung. / The application of methods and technologies of software engineering to environmental modeling and simulation (EMS) is common, since both areas share basic issues of software development and digital simulation. Recent developments within the context of "Model-driven Engineering" (MDE) aim at supporting the development of software systems at the base of relatively abstract models as opposed to programming language code. A basic ingredient of MDE is the development of methods that allow the efficient development of "domain-specific languages" (DSL), in particular at the base of language metamodels. This thesis shows how MDE and language metamodeling in particular, may support pragmatic aspects that reflect epistemic and cognitive aspects of scientific investigations. For this, DSLs and language metamodeling in particular are set into the context of "model-based science" and "model-based reasoning". It is shown that the specific properties of metamodel-based DSLs may be used to support those properties, in particular transparency, which are of particular relevance against the background of uncertainty, that is a characterizing property of EMS. The findings are the base for the formulation of an corresponding specific metamodel- based approach for the provision of modeling tools for EMS (Language-centered Approach, LCA), which has been implemented (modeling tool ECA-EMS), including a new DSL for CA modeling for EMS (ECAL). At the base of this implementation, the applicability of this approach is shown.