In an attempt to bridge the gap between theories of violent escalation and those of genocide, this paper theorizes genocide to be a strategic choice by leaders in response to a situation which they perceive to lack alternatives. This situation is expected to evolve out of a violent escalation, more precisely civil war. The empirical test consists of a structured focused comparison of one positive and one negative case; namely the conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the conflict in Georgia over the region Abkhazia. The finding gives some evidence to the theory, however a more adequate theory needs to also involve a theorization of the ability to perpetrate genocide and not only of a lack of other alternatives. The study builds on previous research on the relationship between violent escalation and genocide, and findings are in line with existing research.

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of self-efficacy, process feedback and task complexity on decisions by managers to continue or discontinue a new product after receiving negative performance feedback. Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses a classroom experiment design and uses logistic regression and a chi-square test to analyze the data. Findings: The findings of this paper show that self-efficacy, process feedback and task complexity have not only main effects but also interactive effects on managers’ go or no-go decisions; further, the main effects are mediated by interactions. The effect of self-efficacy is moderated by process feedback and task complexity. Process feedback and task complexity also have an interactive effect on decisions about new products by decision-makers. Research limitations/implications: This paper extends the theory of escalation of commitment (EOC) by showing that self-efficacy, process feedback and task complexity can influence decision-makers’ go or no-go decisions after they have received negative performance feedback. Practical implications: This paper provides useful guidelines for managers on how to reduce the likelihood of EOC. Originality/value: The originality and value of this paper lie in its being the first to examine the effects of process feedback and task complexity on the EOC.

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Import sanctions were used to a very limited extent against South Africa in the early sixties and latter half of the seventies to clearly signal the international community's disapproval of the country's apartheid policy. In the middle eighties South Africa was further exposed to a two year wave of export and financial sanctions. This was after the government had already committed itself to move away from apartheid as a policy that was no longer deemed feasible. All these sanctions were lifted in the early nineties after the abolition of apartheid but before negotiations for a new constitutional dispensation had firmly got under way. Contrary to some popular impressions, the 1985-87 sanctions were also severe1y limited in scope and nature, with the result that their economic impact was only marginal at best. They were introduced at a time when the country unexpectedly had to face a foreign debt crisis and had to drastically adjust the economy downward, not unlike that experienced by many other developing countries. The severe recession and greater socio-political unrest that followed did not lead to an escalation of sanctions, but nevertheless threatened to make large parts of the country ungovernable. The evidence is that sanctions only played a minor role in bringing about this poor and deteriorating state of affairs. The political aims of abolishing apartheid and preparing the way for negotiations was achieved mainly as a result of certain internal political developments, together with the political implications of such major other outside developments as the economic collapse of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Soviet Union. South Africa's experience with sanctions confirms that as elsewhere their economic impact as an instrument of foreign policy was invariably exaggerated, whereas their contribution in explaining the subsequent course of political events was at best uncertain. / Department of Economics / Ph.D. (Economics)

The objective of the thesis is to advance the concept of learning by explicating the mechanisms contributing to knowledge accumulation and its transfer to new situations. On the basis of 44 case studies, the framework is refined to accurately capture the unique features and outcomes of experiential knowledge in acquisitions. Feedback from the performance of prior acquisitions was found to enrich representations of action-outcome linkages and modify procedures in search and valuation. Inferential transfer though depended on similar kinds of features emerging in subsequent decisions. Outcomes therefore reflected the integration of feedback processes and similarity judgments. From the case studies, a set of hypotheses was developed and their plausibility tested, using another data set on the acquisitions of 687 managers. The research finds that the performance of prior decisions and the similarity to prior experiences materially impact behaviour. Poor performance in prior, similar acquisitions led to a reduction in subsequent risk behaviour, illustrated by the extent of risk management and by the lessening of commitment to specific transactions. The impact of performance feedback was also extant in the similarity of choice to prior experiences. The results illustrate that although feedback shapes perceptions of likelihood and expected value, similarity judgments moderate the impact of prior performance on behaviour. Given the impact on acquisition behaviour, the research also illustrates that prior experiences do not necessarily increase performance. Adaptation from prior failures was not unambiguously linked to positive returns, suggesting limitations from feedback mechanisms. Rather, the extent and similarity of acquisition experience led to a reduction in the variability of performance. By providing a framework for selecting planning procedures, greater experience tended to reduce surprises post-acquisition.

Computed tomography urography (CTU) is today the imaging method used to investigate patients with suspected urinary tract malignancy, replacing the old imaging method intravenous pyelography (IVP) about a decade ago. The downside of this shift was that the effective radiation dose to the examined patient was eight times higher for CTU compared to IVP. Based on four different studies, the present thesis focused on efforts to reduce the CTU radiation dose.   In study I, the number of cysts and solid lesions in the separate scan phases was evaluated in 57 patients undergoing four-phase CTU 1997-98. The number of scans was reduced from four to three when the nephrographic scan was abolished following study I. Study II registered the diameter of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and the presenting symptoms in the total number of patients (n=232) diagnosed with RCC between 1997 and 2003. The results from study II showed that the critical size for RCCs to cause macroscopic hematuria was ≥ 4 cm. Study III was a dose-escalation study aimed to decide the minimal possible tube load in the unenhanced and excretory phase scans if the low dose images are reviewed together with normal dose corticomedullary phase images. Study III showed that it is possible to reduce the mean effective dose in three phase CTU from 16.2 mSv to 9.4 mSv with a combined low and normal dose CTU protocol. Study IV investigated the changes in the CTU protocol between 1997 and 2008, and the development of the effective radiation dose. Study IV clarified how the CTU protocol has changed between 1997 and 2008 and as a result the mean effective radiation dose to patients undergoing CTU in 2008 is only 39% of the effective dose in 1997.   In conclusion, the findings from the studies included in this thesis have contributed to a reduced radiation dose to patients undergoing CTU. The mean effective dose from CTU is at present only three times higher compared to that from the IVP.

Sistemas de informação do setor público tem apresentado historicamente uma baixa taxa de conclusão com sucesso. O tamanho e a complexidade dos projetos de sistemas de informação de porte grande em organizações de governo estão aumentando ainda mais. Entretanto, muitas organizações governamentais não possuem a habilidade para gerenciar esse tipo de projeto. Um caso extremo de projeto problemático é o que ocorre na situação de agravamento, na qual recursos continuam sendo comprometidos em um curso de ação destinado ao fracasso. O agravamento do projeto aparenta ser consequência de uma combinação de fatores. As principais teorias que explicam o agravamento de projetos focam principalmente nos fatores psicológicos, sociais e organizacionais, os quais são aplicáveis tanto a projetos de sistemas de informação quanto a projetos de outras áreas de aplicação. Esta pesquisa preenche uma lacuna na literatura por focar nas características específicas do projeto que levam um projeto de Governo Eletrônico a se tornar problemático e entrar em situação de agravamento. Logo, o propósito desta pesquisa é aprimorar o entendimento dos fatores de projeto (riscos) que levam projetos de Governo Eletrônico à situação de agravamento. Para investigar o fenômeno do agravamento em projetos reais de Governo Eletrônico, esta tese apresenta um estudo de casos múltiplos com três casos, dois da Secretaria da Fazenda do Estado de São Paulo e um terceiro de uma organização pública brasileira anônima. Os casos deste estudo são analisados sob o ponto de vista de um modelo de referência baseado na teoria de problemas complexos (Wicked Problems Theory). Esta pesquisa concluiu que os principais riscos que levam um projeto de Governo Eletrônico a situação de agravamento são os riscos de complexidade, e os riscos de escopo e requisitos. Esta pesquisa também apresenta algumas maneiras para tratar esses problemas: buscar a simplificação consciente das regras de negócio (requisitos), para aumentar a viabilidade técnica do projeto; aplicar uma metodologia mais adequada às características do projeto; e proteger o projeto da interferência dos prazos políticos. / Information systems (IS) projects in the public sector have historically been a problematic area with a very low rate of successful completion. The size and complexity of large-scale information systems projects in government organizations are on the rise, but most government organizations lack the ability of managing such projects. An extreme case of project problems is the escalation situation, where resources continue to be committed to a failing course of action. Project escalation seems to be promoted by a combination of factors. The main theories that explain project escalation focus mostly on psychological, social and organizational factors related to escalation, which are common for both information systems and non-information systems projects. This research fills a gap in the literature by focusing on the project characteristics that lead an e-government project to become problematic and escalate. Thus, the purpose of this research is to improve the understanding of project factors (risks) that lead e-government projects to escalation. In order to investigate the escalation phenomenon in real world e-government projects, this thesis presents a collective case study with three cases, two from the Treasury Secretary of São Paulo State and a third one from an anonymous Brazilian public organization. The case studies are analyzed through the eyes of a reference model based on the Wicked Problems Theory. This research shows that the main risks that lead an e-government project towards escalation are complexity risks, and scope and requirements risks. This research also reveals some ways of dealing with these issues: seeking to consciously simplify business rules (i.e., requirements) in order to increase technical feasibility; applying a methodology better suited to the project characteristics; and protecting the project from the interference of political deadlines