No / Using a two-stage quantile regression framework, we uncover significant asymmetries across quantiles for all coefficients in an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the euro area. A pure NKPC specification accurately captures inflation dynamics at high inflation quantiles.

Sammanfattning Examensarbete i finansiering, Civilekonomprogrammet Ekonomihögskolan vid Linnéuniversitetet, VT-2017 Författare: Emma Magnusson & Jonathan Hillgren Handledare: Håkan Locking Examinator: Andreas Stephan Titel: For better or for worse – A study on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade   Bakgrund: Växelkurssvängningar har studerats av flertalet forskare då detta anses vara en osäkerhet vars effekt inte är säkerställd. Då internationell handel är en viktig faktor för tillväxt och välstånd i en nation är dess samband med volatiliteten betydelsefullt att fastställa för att identifiera huruvida inverkan på landet är positiv eller negativ.   Problemformulering: Har volatiliteten i eurons växelkurs mot rörliga valutor någon påverkan på den bilaterala handeln mellan eurozonen och andra europeiska länder?   Syfte: Att kunna urskilja effekten av växelkursvolatilitetens påverkan på export och import vilket kan gynna företag i dess handelsbeslut, strategier och framtidprognostisering.    Metod: Undersökningens tillvägagångssätt grundar sig i en tidsserieanalys där beräkningar för volatiliteten ligger som grund till förklaringsvariabeln i modellen för att studera dess effekt på handeln, vilket skattas genom en noga utvald ARDL-metod. Regressionerna ger både ett lång- och kortsiktigt samband för att visa skillnader i influenser från volatiliteten på export och import för Sverige och Norge som studeras i rapporten.   Slutsatser: De erhållna resultaten för både Sveriges och Norges export visar att ingen påverkan alls kan urskiljas från växelkurssvängningar vilket innebär att exporten fortskrider oavsett grad av volatilitet vilket kan förklaras genom dess förmodade likheter i handelsmönster, varukategorier och exponering mot euroländerna. En möjlig slutsats är även att det inte är volatiliteten i sig som påverkar handeln, utan underliggande faktorer som inte kontrollerats för, vilket åskådliggjordes när oljeprisindex inkluderandes och eliminerade volatilitetens effekt på Norges export. Importen visade en långsiktig negativ effekt av volatiliteten för Norge och en kortsiktig positiv påverkan för Sverige. Skillnader i importen antas bero på olikheter i valutasäkring, trögheter i ekonomin och relationen till EU. / Abstract   Master Thesis in finance, Business and Administration School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University, VT-2017 Authors: Emma Magnusson & Jonathan Hillgren Advisor: Håkan Locking Examiner: Andreas Stephan Title: For better or for worse – A study on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade   Background: Exchange rate fluctuations have been studied by numerous researchers, since it is thought of as an uncertainty whose effect is not guaranteed. Because international trade is an important factor to growth and wealth for a country, its connection to volatility is important to establish in order to identify whether the influence on the nation is positive or negative.   Problem: Does the volatility in the exchange rate between the euro and floating currencies affect bilateral trade between the euro area and other European countries?   Purpose: The purpose of the study is to distinguish the effect of the exchange rate volatility on export and import, which can favor companies in their trade decisions and strategies.   Method: The approach of the study is built on a time series analysis where estimates of volatility are underlying the explanatory variable to find its effect on trade, which is calculated by a carefully selected ARDL method. The regressions obtain both long-term and short-term relationships to show differences in the effect from the volatility on export and import for Sweden and Norway, the studied countries in this report.   Conclusions: The results for the export of both Sweden and Norway do not show any impact from the exchange rate fluctuations, which means the export continues regardless of the level of volatility. This can be explained by their similarities in the pattern of trade, products and exposure to the euro countries. Another possible conclusion is that the volatility itself is not affecting trade but that the underlying factors not being controlled for are, which was shown when the oil price index was included and eliminated the effect of the volatility on Norwegian exports. The import exposed a long-term negative effect of the volatility for Norway and a short-term positive effect for Sweden. The disparities are assumed to be due to differences in the use of hedging, inertia in the economy and the relationship with the European Union.

Notre thèse a pour objectif de déterminer la nature des liens entre la multiplication des processus de macro-régionalisation, dans un contexte de mondialisation, et le renouvellement des politiques d’aménagement du territoire à travers la mise en place de nouvelles formes de coopération décentralisée entre villes et territoires. Notre projet de recherche cherche ainsi à établir comment la régionalisation permet la mise en place d’une gouvernance à niveaux multiples mettant en relation des acteurs territoriaux, à différents échelons de décision (supranational, national et infranational) dans le but de faire face à la complexité grandissante des problèmes actuels à l’échelle mondiale. Parmi ces projets régionaux qui émergent dans plusieurs parties du monde, nous avons choisi le Partenariat euro-méditerranéen comme cas d'étude en s'intéressant de manière particulière aux projets et programmes de coopération décentralisée et transfrontalière qui se mettent en place autour de la Méditerranée et qui mettent en relation plusieurs villes et régions riveraines. Afin de répondre à ces questions, nous avons décliné notre argumentation en plusieurs axes de réflexion. Un premier axe de réflexion tourne autour de la nature du projet régional euro-méditerranéen et de son implication au niveau des stratégies territoriales principales. Un deuxième axe concerne le contenu et les processus de mise en œuvre des programmes et projets de coopération décentralisée et transfrontalière et leur pertinence au niveau du développement local des territoires du Sud. Un troisième axe s’intéresse au rôle de l’État central en face du développement de ces initiatives qui le contourne. Enfin, un quatrième axe de réflexion concerne l’attitude de l’échelon local par rapport à ces initiatives qui l’interpellent et le sollicitent en tous sens. / The objective of our thesis is to determine the nature of the relation between two ongoing phenomena, i.e. the development of macro-regions in the context of globalization, on one hand, and the revival of spatial planning policies through the rise of new forms of crossborder cooperation between cities and local authorities and the preparation of regional policies related to transport and environment, on the other. Our main argument is that Regionalization encourages the development of a multi-level governance approach that provides a platform for interaction between various territorial actors, located at different decision-making level (supranational, national and local) in order to face the growing complexity of Globalization and its challenges. We selected the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership as a case study out of a number of world regional projects and paid special attention to crossborder and decentralized cooperation initiatives that are being implemented around the Mediterranean Sea and that join together Mediterranean cities and regions. Our arguments are presented along 4 main sets of questions. A first series of questions revolves around the nature of the Euro-Mediterranean regional project and its relevance for strategic spatial planning. A second set of questions is concerned with the content and the implementation processes of crossborder and decentralized cooperation programmes and their relevance to the local development of territories, mainly located in the South of the Mediterranean. A third set of questions is concerned with the way the Central State is facing such initiatives that are ultimately aiming to limit its authority. Finally, a fourth series of questions is interested in the position of the local level that is the main beneficiary of such initiatives.

C’est avec le lancement de la Coopération Politique Européenne (CPE) en 1969/70 que les six États membres de la Communaute européenne (CE) ont tourné une page dans l’histoire de l’intégration européenne. À partir de cette date les membres de la CE se sont consultés sur des questions de politique étrangère afin d’harmoniser leurs vues et d’élaborer des positions communes. Dès le début la France avait le plus grand intérêt à mettre le Proche-Orient sur l’agenda des Six. Comme les deux chocs pétroliers de 1973/74 et de 1979 risquaient de peser lourd sur les relations euro-arabes, les autres États membres de la Communauté ont consenti en principe à développer une position commune envers le Proche-Orient. Ainsi une politique proche-orientale des Six, et àpartir de 1973 des Neuf, s’est institutionnalisée au cours des années 1970 qui était basée d’une part sur des déclarations communes sur la situation au Proche-Orient et d’autre part sur une coopération économique interrégionale plus étroite, notamment dans le cadre du dialogue euro-arabe. Sous la présidence de Georges Pompidou tout comme sous la présidence de Valéry Giscard d’Estaing la France a été le moteur dans le développement des relations euro-arabes des années 1970. Même si l’action française qui visait à faire adopter sa propre politique proche-orientale par ses partenaires européens n’était pas toujours couronnée de succès la déclaration commune du 6 novembre 1973 et surtout la déclaration commune de Venise du 13 juin 1980reflètent nettement position pro-palestinienne de la France. / By launching European Political Cooperation (EPC) in 1969/70 the six member states of the European Community (EC) openend a new chapter in the history of European Integration. Henceforward the six member states consulted each other in foreign policy issues in order to develop commun positions where possible. From the beginning France showed the greatest interest in putting the Middle East on the European agenda. As the two oil price shocks of 1973/74 and 1979 put a strain on the euro-arab relations the other member states of the EC supported the French request to develop a commun European Near-Eastern policy. Consequently, the 1970ies were marked by a process of institutionalisation of commun policy towards that region that was, on theone side, based on common European declarations, and, on the other side, on a more intense euro-arab cooperation in the field of economics, and this especially within the framework of the euro-arab dialogue. Both under the presidency of Georges Pompidou and under the presidency of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing France can be described as motor of the development and the extension of euro-arab relations. Even if the French diplomacy that tried to make her Near-Eastern policy a common European policy has not always been crowned with succes the common Brussels declaration of November 1973 and especially the common Venicedeclaration of June 1980 reflect clearly the pro-Palestinian stance of France.

This diploma thesis deals with the issue of environmental pollution caused by the production of harmful substances originated from the automobile combustion engines and the calculation of production of basic pollutants emitted from the passenger car exhausts travelling on selected sections of transport route. The aim of the work was to calculate the amount of emitted harmful substances, according to the composition of the vehicle fleet on some selected monitored sections of transport routes. For analysis were selected three stretches of roads in České Budějovice. The analysis considered the vehicle fleet composition, determination of traffic intensity, average speed of vehicles and traffic fluency on the transport routes. The calculated values were obtained using the special software MEFA 13

Dans un contexte de plus en plus concurrentiel, fortement influencé par les événements géopolitiques internationaux, et par l’évolution des goûts et des aspirations, le Mashrek occupe toujours une position touristique majeure aux niveaux régional et international. Ce projet facilite-t-il le dialogue entre les cultures? Il est bon de se pencher à nouveau sur le patrimoine commun du Bassin méditerranéen. Le 1er aspect important, c’est de redécouvrir ce patrimoine partagé afin que chacun puisse se réapproprier son propre patrimoine (un des objectifs de l’UPM « Union Pour la Méditerranée »). Il y a un grand lien entre le Mashrek et les besoins des Partenaires euro-méditerranéens dans le domaine touristique. Même si le tourisme, surtout dans contexte de coopération, permet aux gens de dialoguer et de surmonter la question des frontières, il ne faut pas occulter des blocages d’une autre nature. Cette question est très pertinente. Lors de la conception du projet, de manière à impliquer tous les acteurs et leurs besoins, c’est sans doute un avantage du programme, sur le plan de la conception du projet. Un renouveau touristique au Mashrek qui s’adapte continuellement à la réalité et introduit des modifications, ce qui permet de prendre en compte des études préalables afin de réorienter le projet en fonction des besoins, c’est une des clés de la réussite, dont la dimension régionale est une valeur ajoutée. L’aide de l’UE se révélera très précieuse à cet égard afin de huiler les synergies! Et les premiers signes concrets se manifestent: L’échange et l’ouverture d’esprit, c’est le fruit du commerce du tourisme. / In an increasingly competitive context, strongly influenced by the international geopolitical events, and the evolution of the tastes and the aspirations, Mashrek always occupies a major tourist position on the regional and international levels. Does this project facilitate the dialogue between the cultures? It is wise to lean again on the common inheritance of the Mediterranean basin. The 1st important aspect, it is to rediscover this shared inheritance so that each one can re-adapt his own inheritance (one of the objectives of the UFM “Union For the Mediterranean”). There is a great link between Mashrek and the needs of the Euro-Mediterranean Partners in the tourist field. Even if the tourism, especially in the context of co-operation, allows people to have a dialogue and to overcome the question of the borders, one should not occult obstacles of another nature. This question is very relevant! When designing this project, so as to imply all the actors and their needs, it is undoubtedly an advantage of the program, in the field of the design of the project. A tourist revival in Mashrek which adapts continuously to reality and introduces modifications, which makes possible to take into account preliminary studies in order to re-orient the project according to the needs, is one of the keys to success, whose regional dimension is an added value. The support of the EU will appear very invaluable in this respect in order to oiling synergies! And the first concrete signs appear: The exchange and the broadmindedness which are the commercial fruit of tourism.

The Czech Republic has committed itself to adopt the euro with joining the European union in 2004. Until today there has not been any political interest of setting the specific date of euro adoption due to low public approval. Currently, there is an increase of positive public opinion about euro so it is the right time to start an objective discussion. The thesis is divided into three parts. The First part describes the history and evolution of the European monetary union, Maastricht convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency area. The second part presents possible economic benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. The third and the main part examines the real effects of euro adoption on sample of selected countries with similar characteristics. The impact of euro on main economic indicators was analysed and there has been carried out a comparison between these countries. Also the role of euro in trade of selected countries has been highlighted. Last but not least, the possible impact of euro on country competitivness has been analysed in the context of optimum currency area theory. It is expected that joining the monetary union leads to a boost of bilateral trade which harmonizes the economic cycles of trade partners. The main purpose of this part is to prove the increase of competitiveness of exporters gained from monetary union measured by the raise of the bilateral trade interconnection. Finally these two criteria - gross domestic product alignment and bilateral trade interconnection have been used to describe the suitability of Czech Republic as a candidate country for the European monetary union.

Submitted by Berger Antoine (antoine.elie.berger@icloud.com) on 2016-10-23T18:33:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Antoine_Berger_THESIS-GV.pdf: 3338904 bytes, checksum: 289cc845dc6c3ae75dfa87d26b3fba4d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-10-24T10:57:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Antoine_Berger_THESIS-GV.pdf: 3338904 bytes, checksum: 289cc845dc6c3ae75dfa87d26b3fba4d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-24T11:06:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Antoine_Berger_THESIS-GV.pdf: 3338904 bytes, checksum: 289cc845dc6c3ae75dfa87d26b3fba4d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-26 / The Greek crisis happened in a total of three peaks, the last one happening during the Summer 2015. Western European financial sectors as well as financial markets in general in Europe were hardly hit despite the fact that private sectors in Europe widely reduced their exposure to Greece. In this research paper, we aim to test for Overreaction on the FTSE 100, DAX 30, and CAC40. The Overreaction Hypothesis states that overreacting indices display an asymmetric mean and variance. In this optic, we test for ARCH type models on the previously cited markets. / A crise grega aconteceu em um total de três picos, o último a acontecer durante o Verão de 2015. setores financeiros da Europa Ocidental, bem como os mercados financeiros em geral na Europa quase não foram atingidos apesar do fato de que os setores privados na Europa amplamente reduziram a sua exposição à Grécia . Neste trabalho de pesquisa, pretendemos testar a reação exagerada sobre o FTSE 100, DAX 30, e CAC40. A reação exagerada hipótese afirma que os índices de reagirem excessivamente exibir uma média assimétrica e variância. Nesta óptica, testamos para os modelos tipo de arco nos mercados citados anteriormente.

The European common currency, the euro, is in crisis. Bad news about indebted governments and economic recession has continuously outperformed itself since 2009/2010 and kept the European Union and its member states in suspense. It is up to them to combat the crisis. This master thesis deals with the European sovereign debt crisis (“euro crisis”) and tries to allow a better understanding of how the crisis has been managed by governments at the European level. A special focus is put on decision-making in the crisis, posing the research question “How can the decision-making of the EU in the euro crisis be understood?”. To solve this research problem, three different approaches are applied: liberal intergovernmentalism, historical institutionalism and cognitive institutionalism. Each of them adds different aspects to the analysis, gives answers from its respective point of view and thereby widens the overall picture that evolves. The design of the thesis is a case study with the euro crisis as a special case of decision-making and crisis management. Official documents and statements, expert interviews, scholastic, expert, and journalistic analyses are employed as basic research material. It has been uncovered that, powerful states, especially Germany and France, have bargaining advantages during crisis decision-making. However, the decision-making is constrained by institutional aspects (rules, norms and values). Stress factors deriving from the crisis situation facilitate group dynamics that appeared at least partially during the ongoing crisis.

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