Background: The human ability to adapt to extreme environments is fascinating. Research into this adaptation has been lacking in Arctic isolated teams because it has concentrated on Antarctic teams. The hazards of the poles often confine the researchers indoors with their colleagues, reducing their privacy. This deployment also limits their contact with loved ones at home. Subsequently, over the course of polar night, rates of anxiety, depression, irritability and sleep disturbance increase (Suedfeld & Palinkas, 2008). Often, the teams complain of cognitive impairments. The High Arctic’s distinctive feature is the polar bear. The presence of bears requires Arctic research station teams to handle fire arms for their personal safety. It also means that fire arms – which are highly restricted in the Antarctic – are ever-present and easily accessible at Arctic stations. This poses a unique psychological challenge for these teams which has not been well-researched. Methodology: This thesis is an original contribution to science in that it employs a mixed-methods approach combining phenomenological interviews, cognitive testing and mental health assessment via questionnaires with a team spending a year at the Polish Polar Station, Hornsund, Svalbard. The participants were ten of the eleven winter team members who spent the year between July 2015 and June 2016 at Hornsund (“Explorers”) and an age-/gender-/education-matched control group (“Controls”). They filled in the Symptom Checklist-90-Revised and the Profile of Mood States-Brief Version in July, September, January, April and June of that year. Cognitive testing was completed in September, January and June; it comprised the Figural Learning and Memory Test, the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART), the elevator tasks of the Test of Everyday Attention (TEA) and the Raven Standard Progressive Matrices. The interviews took place at the same time as the cognitive testing. Results: The results showed that the most stressful time reported in the questionnaires was April 2016, just after the winter isolation had ended and the sun had risen again. The Explorers reported little subjective complaints about their cognition but they performed near-ceiling on the TEA while scoring far below their Controls on the SART. This implies a dichotomy between sustained attention and inhibition in the Explorers. Their lived experiences were shaped by a struggle to adapt to the other team members rather than by struggling to adapt to the hazardous environment. The environment was perceived as awe-inspiring. Over time, the Explorers shifted their view of the team from informal colleagues to a family which they did not choose to be a member of and then, to friends. Unanimously, other people were seen as the most difficult aspect of the mission. Conclusions: This thesis provides unique insight into a non-Anglo-Saxon Arctic wintering team: the conclusions suggest that participants should receive social training to get along better and be emotionally prepared. The findings can be implemented by my research partner, the Institute of Geophysics (Warsaw) to better select and prepare their future expeditions to Hornsund. Some of the insights such as the nature of the interpersonal stressors may be applicable to space missions.

Cette thèse vise à mieux comprendre les décisions individuelles des acteurs des marchés de l'assurance et de la réassurance face à différents types d'information, la couverture des risques extrêmes, et les arrangements contractuels entre assureurs et réassureurs. Le contexte général de l'assurance des risques extrêmes est marqué par une intensification et un accroissement des catastrophes naturelles et industrielles depuis une vingtaine d'années dans le monde, ce qui rend délicat une évaluation correcte des caractéristiques des événements et questionne l'assurabilité de ces risques du fait de la présence d'incertitudes. La thèse est constituée de deux parties utilisant une large palette d'outils quantitatifs. La première partie se concentre sur l'analyse des effets de l'information sur les décisions d'assurance, en particulier sur les primes que les agents sont prêts à payer ou accepter pour transférer ou supporter des risques spécifiques. L'information disponible peut donner lieu à des situations de risque ou d'ambiguïté, en distinguant deux types d'ambiguïté: l'imprécision, situation dans laquelle l'information est consensuelle mais imprécise, et le conflit, situation où il y a désaccord entre experts. Cette partie s'appuie sur des enquêtes distribuées auprès d'un échantillon représentatif de la population en tant qu'acheteurs potentiels d'assurance (chapitre 2) ou auprès de professionnels de l'assurance (chapitre 3) afin d'étudier les comportements d'assurance du côté de l'offre et de la demande. Cette partie présente aussi une approche expérimentale de ces comportements avec rémunération des participants (chapitre 4). La seconde partie étudie le marché de la réassurance. Après avoir présenté les spécificités et mécanismes de ce marché (chapitre 5), l'offre de réassurance est analysée à travers des comportements d'enchères de réassureurs (chapitre 6). A partir d'une base de données exclusive, cette partie détermine les facteurs explicatifs des primes de réassurance qui dépendent des caractéristiques des risques, mais également de celles des traités, des réassureurs et du marché. / This thesis aims to better understand the individual decisions of insurance and reinsurance market actors facing different information types, the coverage of extreme risks, and the contractual arrangements between insurers and reinsurers. The insurance context of extreme risks is characterized by the intensification and the increased number of natural and industrial disasters for the last twenty years in the world, which makes it difficult to properly evaluate the event characteristics and questions the insurability of these risks due to the presence of uncertainties. The thesis is composed of two parts using a wide range of quantitative tools. The first part focuses on the analysis of information effects on insurance decisions, especially the premium that actors are willing to pay or to accept in order to transfer or to take specific risks. The available information can lead to situations of risk or ambiguity, distinguishing two ambiguity types: imprecision in which the information is consensual but imprecise, and conflict where there is a disagreement between experts. This part is based on surveys distributed to a representative sample of the population as potential insurance buyers (chapter 2) or to insurance professionals (chapter 3) in order to study demand and supply behaviors. This part also presents an experimental approach in which participants are paid according to their performance (chapter 4). The second part examines the reinsurance market. After presenting the characteristics and mechanisms of the market (chapter 5), reinsurance supply is examined through auction behaviors of reinsurers (chapter 6). 8ased on a proprietary data-base, this part identifies the underlying factors of reinsurance premiums which depend on the risk characteristics, but also on the treaties, the reinsurers and the market.

The purpose of this study was to discover what impact, if any, personal social networks have on an individual’s snowboarding skill progression, and whether any differences emerge based on gender, class, race, or age. Interviews with 10 demographically diverse snowboarders in Washington State, USA, were conducted and analyzed. The study revealed that personal social networks are highly important to snowboarding skill progression, with nine progression benefits noted. It was also found that the type of relationship was important, with the roles of gatekeepers, “godfathers,” and crews as the most critical for progression. Lastly, respondents indicated a variety of methods to access social networks, including social media, events, organizations, industry employment and through existing social networks. To further analyze the findings, an intersectional feminist reading of Castells networking theory was applied, with investigations into gender, race, class, and age patterns. The analysis revealed two overlapping values systems, one based on snowboarding ability and commitment, and one based on alignment of demographics with those who are most valued in the snowboarding world--mainly young, white, middle class men. The research closes with potential solution ideas to improve equitability and inclusion, which can be applied from the grassroots level to large-scale implementation.

In dieser Arbeit wurde erstmalig die Anwendung der Extremwerttheorie auf Wartezeiten eines lichtsignalgesteuerten Verkehrsknotenpunktes untersucht. Anhand der Verkehrsstärken eines realen Knotenpunktes wurden mit der Simulationssoftware PTV Vissim 100 Datensätze mit individuellen Wartezeiten erzeugt. Als Referenz wurde eine zweite Simulationsreihe durchgeführt. Diese erfolgte mit 15 % höherer Verkehrsstärke. Mittels der Blockmaximum-Methode wurden aus den erzeugten Datensätzen die Maxima ausgewählt, welche mit der Maximum-Likelihood Methode an eine Extremwertverteilung angepasst wurden. Die Bewertung der Schätzung wurde mit dem Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test vorgenommen. Anschließend wurde die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass bestimmte Wartezeiten überschritten werden (Value at Risk) berechnet. Im Ergebnis konnten 22 % der geschätzten Extremwertverteilungen mit ausreichender Güte angepasst werden. Für die restlichen Datensätze sollte nach Alternativen zur angemessenen Beschreibung gesucht werden.

Submitted by Núbia Beray Armond (nubiaarmond@hotmail.com) on 2018-06-25T21:52:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - 25-06-2018.pdf: 8153129 bytes, checksum: e9141bda68f119d870251791fe5ac09f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Claudia Adriana Spindola null (claudia@fct.unesp.br) on 2018-06-26T11:42:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 armond_nb_dr_prud.pdf: 8153129 bytes, checksum: e9141bda68f119d870251791fe5ac09f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-26T11:42:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 armond_nb_dr_prud.pdf: 8153129 bytes, checksum: e9141bda68f119d870251791fe5ac09f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-22 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / O estado do Rio de Janeiro possui significativa multiplicidade geográfica, tanto no que se refere a suas feições orográficas e diversidade climática, quanto aos diferentes padrões de produção do espaço existentes em seu interior. Diante dessa complexidade, o conhecimento sobre a variabilidade espaço-temporal dos elementos do clima no Estado é fundamental para fins de planejamento e gestão do território. Esta tese se propõe a realizar uma reflexão sobre as classificações climáticas em Geografia, com vistas a efetuar uma análise geográfica do clima do Estado do Rio de Janeiro a partir da relação entre precipitação pluviométrica e vulnerabilidade. Parte-se da hipótese que, ainda que possa possuir distintas unidades de precipitação pluviométrica, as chuvas podem deflagrar excepcionalidades que são determinadas pelas diferenças nos padrões de vulnerabilidade do Estado. O arcabouço analítico de tese se assentou sobre as perspectivas da climatologia geográfica, do conceito de vulnerabilidade e da Geografia do Clima, ao propor uma investigação baseada na utilização dos conceitos de classificação climática, vulnerabilidade e episódios extremos pautados na categoria de espaço em suas concepções absoluto, relativo e relacional. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados climáticos de estações meteorológicas e postos pluviométricos do INMET e da ANA, com a aplicação de técnicas de estatística descritiva e multivariada desde o processo de preenchimento de falhas até a definição dos anos-padrão para análise. As representações cartográficas foram realizadas com o intuito de demonstrar a complexidade inerente à relação entre os fatores e elementos do clima em diferentes escalas. As médias de precipitação da série histórica analisada (1975-2015) demonstraram padrões similares àqueles exibidos pela Normal Climatológica, com as porções norte e noroeste do estado apresentando padrões de precipitação inferiores em relação às áreas a barlavento da Serra do Mar. No que se refere à gênese, mais de 90% da precipitação pluviométrica do estado do Rio de Janeiro advém da dinâmica de avanço da Frente Polar Atlântica – FPA e/ou sistemas associados (frente oclusa, frente fria, frente reflexa e formação de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul – ZCAS). Sobre as massas de ar, as áreas próximas ao litoral sul, à Serra do Mar e a porções mais continentais do estado contam com participação significativa dos sistemas polares (massa polar atlântica e massa polar atlântica continentalizada - em média 29%), enquanto as áreas situadas no norte fluminense e setores mais próximos à faixa costeira apresentam, em média, 35% de participação dos sistemas tropicais (massa tropical atlântica, massa tropical atlântica continentalizada e instabilidade tropical), caracterizando o estado como pertencente a grande faixa de transição do sudeste brasileiro. Foram, ainda, empregados dados de ocorrências de inundações (bruscas e graduais) e dados referentes ao Censo de 2010 para aplicar o SoVI – Social Vulnerability Index e relacionar este modelo aos episódios extremos. Verificou-se que, a despeito da maior parte do território do estado do Rio de Janeiro apresentar elevadas condições de vulnerabilidade, a maioria das ocorrências coincidiu com as áreas de alta e muito alta vulnerabilidade. Entretanto, não necessariamente as áreas de maior atuação (em termos percentuais) da FPA e/ou sistemas associados coincidiram com os municípios que apresentaram maior número de ocorrências de inundações, o que denota a relevância de uma análise que considere a dinâmica climática não apenas em consonância, mas em relação com as dinâmicas de produção do espaço geográfico. Em síntese, buscou-se, com este trabalho, indicar reflexões através de argumentação teórica, procedimentos metodológicos, arsenal analítico e de representação, para futuras propostas de análise e classificação do clima considerando-o como um fenômeno eminentemente geográfico, tal como propõe a Geografia do Clima. / Rio de Janeiro state has a significant geographic multiplicity, both in terms of its orographic features and climatic diversity, as well as the different patterns of space production in its interior. Faced with this complexity, knowledge about climate elements spatiotemporal variability is fundamental for planning and territorial management purposes. This thesis proposes to carry out a reflection on the climatic classifications in Geography, in order to carry out a geographic analysis of the climate of the State of Rio de Janeiro from the relation between rainfall and vulnerability. It is hypothesized that, although it may have different units of rainfall, rainfall may trigger exceptionalities that are determined by differences in the state's vulnerability patterns. The analytical framework of thesis was based on the perspectives of the geographical climatology, the concept of vulnerability and the Geography of the Climate, proposing an investigation based on the concepts of climatic classification, vulnerability and extreme episodes based on the category of space in its absolute conceptions , relative and relational. In order to do so, we used the climatic data of meteorological stations and pluviometric stations of INMET and ANA rain gauges, with descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques from the fault-filling process to the definition of the standard years for analysis. The cartographic representations were performed with the purpose of demonstrating the inherent complexity of the relationship between the factors and elements of the climate in different scales. The precipitation averages of the analyzed historical series (1975-2015) showed similar patterns to those exhibited by Normal Climatology, with the north and northwest portions of the state showing lower precipitation patterns in relation to the leeward areas of Serra do Mar. to the genesis, more than 90% of the rainfall of the state of Rio de Janeiro comes from the forward movement dynamics of the Atlantic Polar Front (FPA) and / or associated systems (front occlusal, cold front, reflex front and formation of South Atlantic Convergence Zone - ZCAS). Concerning the air masses, the areas near the southern coast, the Serra do Mar and the more continental portions of the state have significant participation of the polar systems (Atlantic polar mass and continentalized Atlantic polar mass - on average 29%), while the areas located in the north of the state of Rio de Janeiro and sectors closer to the coastline, have an average of 35% participation of tropical systems (Atlantic tropical mass, continental Atlantic tropical mass and tropical instability), characterizing the state as belonging to the great transition zone of the Brazilian southeast . Data were also used for flood occurrences (abrupt and gradual) and data referring to the 2010 Census to apply the SoVI - Social Vulnerability Index and to relate this model to extreme episodes. It was verified that, although most of the territory of the state of Rio de Janeiro presents high vulnerability conditions, most occurrences coincided with areas of high and very high vulnerability. However, not necessarily the areas with the highest FPA performance and / or associated systems coincided with the municipalities with the highest number of flood events, which indicates the relevance of an analysis that considers climate dynamics not only in consonance, but in relation to the production dynamics of the geographical space. In summary, it was sought, with this work, to indicate reflections through theoretical argumentation, methodological procedures, analytical arsenal and representation for future proposals of analysis and classification of the climate considering it as an eminently geographical phenomenon, as proposed by Geography of Climate.

This is a study about the extreme right and populist meps in the European Parliament, and the purpose of this study is to explain how the ways they organise themselves in a political group within the European Parliament can influence EU:s democratic system in a negative direction.     The essay explores the rise of the right-winged parties in the European Parliament. Populism as a phenomenon is the ideology upon which the extreme right parties have based their politics and is something that could change shape dependent on the situation.     The essay thus investigates whether there is a connection between the phenomena and the low voter turnout in the European Parliamentary elections. The two research questions are 1. Can the low-level participation be a root cause of the extreme right and populist parties gaining power in the European Parliament? and 2. Is the impact a threat to democracy?      The European Parliament is one of the most important institutions in the European Union and is the only institution whose leaders are elected in public elections, therefore the low level of participation is an important issue to study.      The result of the study is that the extreme right parties pose a threat to EU:s democracy when they get to much power and the opportunity to change the political agenda.

Cada vez es más frecuente ver que la industria de software se base en estándares y certificaciones de calidad. Esto ha despertado la iniciativa por parte de las empresas a realizar esfuerzos para mejorar sus procesos de desarrollo de forma continua, con la idea de obtener ventajas competitivas, y abarcar una mayor zona de mercado. Sin embargo, para las empresas, el proceso de adoptar las prácticas orientadas a una mejora de procesos resulta tener un elevado costo, que estas no siempre pueden abordar. Es aquí donde surge la idea de utilizar algunas de las prácticas de las metodologías ágiles, principalmente gracias a su nuevo enfoque de cómo lograr proyectos exitosos y además a la poca inversión inicial que requieren. Con el objeto de apoyar una de las iniciativas de la Agenda Digital, ha surgido el Proyecto Tutelkán, cuyo propósito es crear un mecanismo sustentable, que mediante un proceso público de referencia y una comunidad activa de apoyo, permita a las empresas nacionales contar con las herramientas y asistencia necesarias para iniciar la mejora de los procesos de desarrollo en miras a una certificación. Identificando necesidades reales del ambiente nacional, gracias a la inserción dentro de la industria se construyeron herramientas para el apoyo de administración de requerimientos y de riesgos, que reúnen tanto características provenientes de las metodologías tradicionales como de las metodologías ágiles, formando una plataforma de trabajo extensible e interoperable, gracias a su orientación de servicios. Todo con el fin de apoyar con herramientas de software que agreguen valor a este mejoramiento de procesos en el desarrollo, sin hacerlo más complejo o burocrático. La acogida desde las empresas fue positiva, reconociendo el valor que aporta a mejorar sus procesos y el apoyo que otorga para mejorar la imagen externa.

The use of electronic mail (email) has evolved from sending simple messages to task delegation and management. Most mail clients, however, have not kept up with the evolution and as a result have limited task management features available. On the other hand, while issue tracking systems offer useful task management functionality, they are not as widespread as emails and also have a few drawbacks. This thesis reports on the exploration of the integration of the ubiquitous nature of email with the task management features of issue-tracking systems. We explore this using simple ad-hoc as well as semi-automated tasks. With these two working together, tasks can be delegated from email clients without needing to switch between the two environments. It brings some of the benefits of issue tracking systems closer to our email users.The system is developed using Microsoft VisuaI Studio.NET. with the code written in C#. The eXtreme Programming (XP) methodology was used during the development of the proof-of-concept prototype that demonstrates the integration of the two environments, as we were faced at first with vague requirements bound to change, as we better understood the problem domain through our development. XP allowed us to skip an extended and comprehensive initial design process and incrementally develop the system, making refinements and extensions as we encountered the need for them. This alleviated the need to make upfront decisions that were based on minimal knowledge of what to expect during development. This thesis describes the implementation of the prototype and the decisions made with each step taken towards developing an email-based issue tracking system. With the two environments working together, we can now easily track issues from our email clients without needing to switch to another system. / KMBT_363 / Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in

[pt] A partir da década de 90, a metodologia Value at Risk (VaR) se difundiu pelo mundo, tanto em instituições financeiras quanto em não financeiras, como uma boa prática de mensuração de riscos. Em geral, abordagens paramétricas são muito utilizadas pelo mercado, apesar de freqüentemente não levarem em conta uma característica muito encontrada nas distribuições dos retornos de ativos financeiros: a presença de caudas pesadas. Uma abordagem baseada na Teoria dos Valores Extremos (TVE) é uma boa solução quando se deseja modelar caudas de distribuições probabilísticas que possuem tal característica. Em contra partida, poucos são os trabalhos que procuram desenvolver a TVE aplicada a ativos de renda-fixa. Com base nisto, este estudo propõe uma abordagem de simples implementação de cálculo de VaR para ativos de renda-fixa baseado na Teoria dos Valores Extremos. / [en] Since the 90 decade, the use of Value at Risk (VaR) methodology has been disseminated among both financial and non-financial institutions around the world, as a good practice in terms of risks management. In spite of the fact that it does not take into account one of the most important characteristics of financial assets returns distribution - fat tails (excess of kurtosis), the parametric approach is the most used method for Value at Risk measurement. The Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is an alternative method that could be used to avoid the underestimation of Value at Risk, properly modeling the characteristics of probability distribution tails. However, there are few works that applied EVT to fixed-income market. Based on that, this study implements a simple approach to VaR calculation, in which the Extreme Value Theory is applied to fixed-income assets.

[pt] Os métodos clássicos para estudo de valores extremos de séries temporais se apóiam nas chamadas distribuições de extremos. Uma alternativa é o método P.O.T. (Peaks Over Threshold), desenvolvido por hidrologistas, o qual estuda apenas os valores da série que excedem um dado patamar. Esses procedimentos são baseados em hipóteses restritivas. Nesse trabalho desenvolvemos modelos sobre extremos que podem ser utilizados em situações mais gerais. Eles são essencialmente modelos lineares dinâmicos com inferência Bayesiana, nos quais as observações têm um distribuição de extremos. Embora essas distribuições não sejam da famí­lia exponencial, toda a análise é feita explicitamente, sem aproximações numéricas. Tratamos ainda da construção de distribuições a priori não informáticas. Finalmente, a partir desses modelos retomamos problemas clássicos de previsão de extremos. / [en] The classical approaches for extreme values studies make use the so called Extreme Values Distribution. An alternative approach, known as P.O.T. (Peaks Over Threshold) developed by hydrologists considers only excedances over a given threshold value. All the existing approaches are in a sense, based on constrained hupothesis. In this thesis we developed forecasting models for extreme values that are dynamic linear model as the underlying formulation, and the Bayesian inference. Although the process observation follows an extreme values distribution and, therefore not a member of the exponential family, we were able to formulate explicitly the model with no use of numerical approximations throughout, Concerning the parameter priors, we use in the model formulation the Jeffery`s non informative prior.