The heavy-tailed traffic from wireless users, caused by the emerging Internet and multimedia applications, induces extremely dynamic and variable network environment, which can fundamentally change the way in which wireless networks are conceived, designed, and operated. This thesis is concerned with modeling, analysis, and optimization of wireless networks in the presence of heavy tails. First, a novel traffic model is proposed, which captures the inherent relationship between the traffic dynamics and the joint effects of the mobility variability of network users and the spatial correlation in their observed physical phenomenon. Next, the asymptotic delay distribution of wireless users is analyzed under different traffic patterns and spectrum conditions, which reveals the critical conditions under which wireless users can experience heavy-tailed delay with significantly degraded QoS performance. Based on the delay analysis, the fundamental impact of heavy-tailed environment on network stability is studied. Specifically, a new network stability criterion, namely moment stability, is introduced to better characterize the QoS performance in the heavy-tailed environment. Accordingly, a throughput-optimal scheduling algorithm is proposed to maximize network throughput while guaranteeing moment stability. Furthermore, the impact of heavy-tailed spectrum on network connectivity is investigated. Towards this, the necessary conditions on the existence of delay-bounded connectivity are derived. To enhance network connectivity, the mobility-assisted data forwarding scheme is exploited, whose important design parameters, such as critical mobility radius, are derived. Moreover, the latency in wireless mobile networks is analyzed, which exhibits asymptotic linearity in the initial distance between mobile users.

This exploratory case study was undertaken to obtain a greater understanding of the difficulties that physics students face when solving image-object projections in optics problems. This was carried out by studying the students’ reasoning when facing new kinds of problem settings using the refraction of light and the position of the virtual image and the real object as the frame for the research. The results show that there is more than one reasoning possibility that is feasible for students to use when dealing with the same problem. The results also illustrate how several different ways of reasoning may be simultaneously needed to solve a refraction problem. The different kinds of reasoning have been referred to as reasoning categories in this study. The analysis illustrates how the categories complement each other, and the use of many reasoning categories is shown to be fruitful. However, the vast majority of the participants made contradicting answer selections when solving similar problems by using contradicting reasoning approaches. This lack of consistency in the participants’ reasoning could indicate that they have a fragmentary understanding of optics in general. Both the capability to link reasoning approaches together, as well as the affordances that different modes of representations offer, are needed for the construction of a better conceptual understanding. Only mastering a few ways of reasoning and a few modes of representation could lead to fragmented knowledge, which, in turn leads to making problem solving really challenging. One purpose of this study was to find out if reasoning categories and modes of representations are essentially linked. If so, then the reasoning categories would be determined by the representation of the problem. The analysis shows that there is a connection, but that there are also other factors at play.

The research presented in this dissertation attempted to determine whether climate variability is critical to sea level changes in coastal BC. To that end, a number of statistical models were proposed to clarify the relationships between five climate variability indices representing large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes and sea levels, storm surges, extreme winds and storm track variability in coastal BC. The research findings demonstrate that decadal to inter decadal climatic variability is fundamental to explaining the changing frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric and oceanic environmental variables in coastal BC. The trends revealed by these analyses suggest that coastal flooding risks are certain to increase in this region during the next few decades, especially if the global sea-levels continue to rise as predicted. The out come of this study emphasis the need to look beyond climatic means when completing climate impact assessments, by clearly showing that climate extremes are currently causing the majority of weather-related damage along coastal BC. The findings highlight the need to derive knowledge on climate variability and change effects relevant at regional to local scales to enable useful adaptation strategies. The major findings of this research resulted in five independent manuscripts: (i) Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in Northern BC. The Manuscript (MC) is published in the Journal of atmospheric and oceans (AO 46 (3), 277-296); (ii) Extreme sea-level recurrences in the south coast of BC with climate considerations. This MC is in review with the Asia Pacific Journal of Climate Change (APJCC); (iii) Extreme sea-surge responses to climate variability in coastal BC. This MC is currently in review in the Annals of the AAG (AN-2009-0098); (iv) Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner-south-coast of BC. This MC is published in the Journal of Atmosphere and Oceans (AO 47 (1), 41-62); (v) Sensitivity of winter storm track characteristics in North-eastern Pacific to climate variability. This manuscript is in review with the Journal of Atmosphere and Oceans (AO (1113)). The findings of this research program made key contributions to the following regional sea level rise impact assessment studies in BC: (i) An examination of the Factors Affecting Relative and Absolute Sea level in coastal BC (Thomson et al., 2008). (ii) Coastal vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise, Northeast Graham Island, Haida Gwaii (formally known as the Queen Charlotte Islands), BC (Walker et al., 2007). (iii) Storm Surge: Atmospheric Hazards, Canadian Atmospheric Hazards Network - Pacific and Yukon Region, C/O Bill Taylor.

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are among the standard design tools for various engineering applications, such as storm water management systems. The current practice is to use IDF curves based on historical extreme precipitation quantiles. A warming climate, however, might change the extreme precipitation quantiles represented by the IDF curves, emphasizing the need for updating the IDF curves used for the design of urban storm water management systems in different parts of the world, including Canada. This study attempts to construct the future IDF curves for Saskatoon, Canada, under possible climate change scenarios. For this purpose, LARS-WG, a stochastic weather generator, is used to spatially downscale the daily precipitation projected by Global Climate Models (GCMs) from coarse grid resolution to the local point scale. The stochastically downscaled daily precipitation realizations were further disaggregated into ensemble hourly and sub-hourly (as fine as 5-minute) precipitation series, using a disaggregation scheme developed using the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) technique. This two-stage modeling framework (downscaling to daily, then disaggregating to finer resolutions) is applied to construct the future IDF curves in the city of Saskatoon. The sensitivity of the K-NN disaggregation model to the number of nearest neighbors (i.e. window size) is evaluated during the baseline period (1961-1990). The optimal window size is assigned based on the performance in reproducing the historical IDF curves by the K-NN disaggregation models. Two optimal window sizes are selected for the K-NN hourly and sub-hourly disaggregation models that would be appropriate for the hydrological system of Saskatoon. By using the simulated hourly and sub-hourly precipitation series and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, future changes in the IDF curves and associated uncertainties are quantified using a large ensemble of projections obtained for the Canadian and British GCMs (CanESM2 and HadGEM2-ES) based on three Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 available from CMIP5 – the most recent product of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The constructed IDF curves are then compared with the ones constructed using another method based on a genetic programming technique. The results show that the sign and the magnitude of future variations in extreme precipitation quantiles are sensitive to the selection of GCMs and/or RCPs, and the variations seem to become intensified towards the end of the 21st century. Generally, the relative change in precipitation intensities with respect to the historical intensities for CMIP5 climate models (e.g., CanESM2: RCP4.5) is less than those for CMIP3 climate models (e.g., CGCM3.1: B1), which may be due to the inclusion of climate policies (i.e., adaptation and mitigation) in CMIP5 climate models. The two-stage downscaling-disaggregation method enables quantification of uncertainty due to natural internal variability of precipitation, various GCMs and RCPs, and downscaling methods. In general, uncertainty in the projections of future extreme precipitation quantiles increases for short durations and for long return periods. The two-stage method adopted in this study and the GP method reconstruct the historical IDF curves quite successfully during the baseline period (1961-1990); this suggests that these methods can be applied to efficiently construct IDF curves at the local scale under future climate scenarios. The most notable precipitation intensification in Saskatoon is projected to occur with shorter storm duration, up to one hour, and longer return periods of more than 25 years.

This thesis presents a class of graphical models for directly representing the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) of many random variables, called cumulative distribution networks (CDNs). Unlike graphical models for probability density and mass functions, in a CDN, the marginal probabilities for any subset of variables are obtained by computing limits of functions in the model. We will show that the conditional independence properties in a CDN are distinct from the conditional independence properties of directed, undirected and factor graph models, but include the conditional independence properties of bidirected graphical models. As a result, CDNs are a parameterization for bidirected models that allows us to represent complex statistical dependence relationships between observable variables. We will provide a method for constructing a factor graph model with additional latent variables for which graph separation of variables in the corresponding CDN implies conditional independence of the separated variables in both the CDN and in the factor graph with the latent variables marginalized out. This will then allow us to construct multivariate extreme value distributions for which both a CDN and a corresponding factor graph representation exist. In order to perform inference in such graphs, we describe the `derivative-sum-product' (DSP) message-passing algorithm where messages correspond to derivatives of the joint cumulative distribution function. We will then apply CDNs to the problem of learning to rank, or estimating parametric models for ranking, where CDNs provide a natural means with which to model multivariate probabilities over ordinal variables such as pairwise preferences. We will show that many previous probability models for rank data, such as the Bradley-Terry and Plackett-Luce models, can be viewed as particular types of CDN. Applications of CDNs will be described for the problems of ranking players in multiplayer team-based games, document retrieval and discovering regulatory sequences in computational biology using the above methods for inference and estimation of CDNs.

Cet article étudie la sensibilité des estimations de certaines variables explicatives de la croissance économique dans des régressions en coupe transversale sur un ensemble de pays. Il applique un modèle modifié de l’analyse de sensibilité de Leamer (1983, 1985). Mes résultats confirment la conclusion de Levine and Renelt (1992), toutefois, je montre que plus de variables sont solidement corrélées à la croissance économique. Entre 1990-2010, je trouve que huit sur vingt cinq variables ont des coefficients significatifs et sont solidement corrélées à la croissance de long terme, notamment, les parts de l’investissement et des dépenses étatiques dans le PIB, la primauté du droit et une variable dichotomique pour les pays subsahariens. Je trouve aussi une preuve empirique solide de l'hypothèse de la convergence conditionnelle, ce qui est cohérent avec le modèle de croissance néoclassique. / This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country growth regressions. It employs a variant of Leamer’s (1983, 1985) extreme-bounds analysis. My results confirm Levine and Renelt’s (1992) conclusion, but identify more variables to be robustly correlated with economic growth. Of 25 explanatory variables tested, I find 8 to be significantly and robustly correlated with long-term growth over the 1990-2010 period. The strongest evidence is for the investment ratio, government consumption share in GDP, the rule of law, and the Sub-Saharan dummy. I also find strong empirical evidence for conditional convergence, which is consistent with the neoclassical growth model.

一般而言財務資料具有高峰(High Kurtosis)及厚尾(Heavy Tail)的特性，極值理論(Extreme Value Theorem)即是著重於尾部極端事件發生的機率，描繒出尾部極端值的機率分配，以捕捉財務資料中具厚尾的現象，利用估算尾部指數(Tail Index) α值判斷尾部分配的厚、薄程度。一般在估算α值時均是假設α值是不會隨著時間而變動的穩定值，然而在我們所選取的樣本期間內，可能伴隨著一些重大事件，如金融風暴、或是制度面的改變等，均有可能造成尾部極端值發生機率的增加或減少，因此在其樣本期間所估算的α值不應假設為一不變的常數。本文即是針對亞洲四小龍的匯率資料做”尾部參數是否發生結構變化(Structural Change)”之假設檢定，並且找出發生結構變化的時點。 實証結果發現，在1993~2004年間，亞洲四小龍的匯率報酬率其尾部參數確實有發生結構變化的情形。此結論對於風險管理者而言，必須注意到尾部參數α值應該是一個會隨著時間而改變的值，也就是在估算 值時應該要避開發生結構變化的可能時點，或許應於所要估計的樣本期間先執行尾部參數是否有結構變化的檢定，如此才能更準確的估算α值。

The objective of proposed research is to investigate the potential of strained silicon and silicon-germanium (SiGe) based devices for RF/mixed-signal applications. Different device topologies, namely strained buried channel modulation doped field effect transistor (MODFET) and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) based MOSFETs, are studied in this context. Our preliminary results on SiGe MODFETs indicate strong dependence of device performance on displacement damage, which is critical for extreme environment applications. This research will be an effort towards understanding the physics of these devices in extreme environment conditions.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Umeå universitet, 2010.

Ce travail de thèse vise à reconstituer les conditions paléo-environnementales ayant eu lieu dans la vallée de l’Oisans à partir des archives naturelles représentées par les sédiments lacustres. Par une approche multi-marqueurs, nous visons à reconstituer tout à la fois : i) les fluctuations glaciaires en Oisans; ii) les modifications des activités humaines en montagne et leurs influence sur les flux de matière lors d’événements extrêmes ; iii) comprendre la relation entre changements climatiques, changements d’usage et évolution des aléas en haute montagne. Cette étude a permis de mettre en évidence les changements globaux, regroupant la variabilité climatique et les pratiques humaines, ayant influencés l’érosion autour des lacs de La Muzelle et du lac du Lauvitel durant les derniers millénaires.Les résultats principaux ont montrés que l’érosion du lac de la Muzelle a été largement dominé par l’activité glaciaire notamment avec la présence à certaines époques de fines particules détritiques liées à l’abrasion sous glaciaire. Ces dernières ont révélées une relation aux pluies torrentielles encore jamais observées auparavant, leur présence en période d’extension glaciaire étant synonyme d’une augmentation du nombre de dépôts lacustres de crues. Les activités humaines, en majeure partie représentées par l’utilisation agro-pastorale de l’espace avoisinant les lacs, ne sont clairement identifiables que lors des 300 dernières années au lac de la Muzelle. Le lac de Lauvitel est situé à une altitude moindre, dont la majorité du bassin versant est maintenant une réserve intégrale. Les études palynologiques ont mis en évidence certaines périodes d’activités humaines plus marquées. Les événements extrêmes enregistrés dans les sédiments dulac regroupent d’une part les crues, dont l’enregistrement permet une comparaison régionale de l’occurrence de ces événements et de mettre en évidence les changements de circulations atmosphériques à l’échelle des Alpes. D’autre part, les avalanches de neige lourde, dont peu d’enregistrements sont disponibles dans la bibliographie. Nous les avons identifiés grâce à l’utilisation du CT scan l’élaboration d’une nouvelle méthodologie basée sur la différence de densité relative des sédiments. Le comptage et la quantification des apports de matériel détritique grossier aux seins d’une matrice de sédiment lacustre fin, a permis d’identifier les apports liés à cet aléa au cours du temps. Nous avons ensuite reconstitué les événements d’avalanche de neige lourde déposés dans le lac de Lauvitel sur les derniers 3500 ans, dont l’occurrence intervient préférentiellement lors des périodes de retraits glaciaires. / This doctoral thesis aims to a paleo-environmental reconstitution of the Oisans valley based on the natural archive of lake sediments. From a multi-proxy approach, we aim to reconstruct: i) Glacial fluctuation reconstruction in Oisans valley; ii) human activities evolution in mountain area and their influences on sediment fluxes especially during extreme events; iii)understand the relationship between climate change, use of mountain lands and natural hazard.Through this study, we identified processes of global change, comprising natural climate variability and human practices, which affected erosion patterns around Lakes Muzelle and Lauvitel during the last millennia. Main results have shown that erosion in the lake Muzelle watershed was dominated in the past by glacial activity, in particular with the presence of fine detrital particles related to subglacial abrasion. They were identified to have a relationship never observed before; during glacial extension their presence is triggering a higher number of flood deposits. At this location, human activities were identified through agro-pastoral activities and more precisely by the coprophilous fungi spore counting, revealing cattle presence since 300 years. Lake Lauvitel is located at lower altitude, which most of the watershed is now situated in an Integral Reserve. Palynological investigations lead to identification of periods of higher human activities in the valley. Extreme events recorded in Lake Lauvitel sediment are on the one hand torrential floods, which allowed a comparison with other reconstructions highlighting changes in the climatic settings in the Alps. On the other hand, wet avalanches deposits were identified with the use of a CT scan and the development of a new methodology based on relative density differences in the sediment. The counting and the quantification of coarse detrital matter within the lacustrine fine sediment matrix allowed income identification of this hazard though time. We then reconstructed wet avalanches events deposited in Lake Lauvitel during the last 3500 years, which occurrence is preferentially during glacial retreats.