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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-28T20:19:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2004 - Wanderleia das Gracas Silva.pdf: 1067964 bytes, checksum: 151c14c40e5cb592c313c25fd79a526b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004-08-31 / This work was developed with the objective to analyze, ahead of the implantation of plus a plan of economic stability, the possibilities of the control of the Brazilian inflationary process. To understand these possibilities, one searched to after make a historical trajectory of the process the second half of the decade of 1980, emphasizing, superficially, the considered plans of stabilization before the implantation of the Real Plan, with objective to badly demonstrate to which the procedure of the economic plans in relation to one that it devastates the country. Working in this recital, it had an aiming of the present work in the errors and rightnesss of these plans, attempting against itself only to the inertial component, diagnosised as cause of the inflation in the period in analysis. Working in this recital, the three phases that had been primordial for the implantation of the Real Plan, had contributed for the aiming of the present work. The analysis of these two periods, of the 80 phase and second half decade of the Real Plan, had detached the importance of if getting the objective initially considered by this last one. In chapter III, it is demonstrated, superficially, some of the impacts in the Brazilian economy. / Este trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de analisar, diante da implanta??o de mais um plano de estabilidade econ?mica, as possibilidades do controle do processo inflacion?rio brasileiro. Para entender essas possibilidades, buscou-se fazer uma trajet?ria hist?rica do processo ap?s a segunda metade da d?cada de 1980, enfatizando, superficialmente, os planos de estabiliza??o propostos antes da implanta??o do Plano Real, com objetivo de demonstrar qual o procedimento dos planos econ?micos em rela??o a um mal que assola o pa?s. Trabalhando nesta fundamenta??o, houve um direcionamento do presente trabalho nos erros e acertos destes planos, atentando-se apenas ao componente inercial, diagnosticado como causa da infla??o no per?odo em an?lise. Trabalhando nesta fundamenta??o, as tr?s fases que foram primordiais para a implanta??o do Plano Real, contribu?ram para o direcionamento do presente trabalho. A an?lise destes dois per?odos, segunda metade da d?cada de 80 e fases do Plano Real, destacaram a import?ncia de se obter o objetivo inicialmente proposto por este ?ltimo. No cap?tulo III, s?o demonstrados, superficialmente, alguns dos impactos na economia brasileira.

nÃo hà / Visando contribuir com o debate sobre o ajuste fiscal proposto nas Ãltimas dÃcadas, este estudo consiste em uma investigaÃÃo empÃrica acerca dos determinantes dos investimentos pÃblicos nas administraÃÃes estaduais a partir de um painel de dados compreendendo o perÃodo de 2005 a 2008. Modelos economÃtricos em painel dinÃmico sÃo elaborados e estimados via MÃtodo Generalizado dos Momentos (MGM) para trÃs variÃveis consideradas como vias para o investimento pÃblico, quais sejam: investimento, gastos com pessoal e despesas de custeio. A robustez das estimativas permite inferir que: i) o ajuste fiscal dos Estados brasileiros fundamentou-se na ampliaÃÃo da carga tributÃria e na reduÃÃo dos investimentos pÃblicos; ii) o Ãltimo ano de mandato de governo, o investimento pÃblico defasado, o resultado primÃrio defasado e, principalmente, as receitas de operaÃÃo de crÃdito contribuem para a ampliaÃÃo do investimento pÃblico; iii) ajustes nos instrumentos fiscais utilizados para o controle das finanÃas pÃblicas dos Estados podem ajudar na reversÃo da trajetÃria de queda dos investimentos estaduais sem comprometer o equilÃbrio de suas finanÃas. / The study aims to contribute with the debate concerning the fiscal adjustment proposed in the last decades and consists in an empirical investigation about the determinants of public investment in of the Brazilian states from a panel of data spanning the period from 2005 to 2008. Dynamic panel econometric models by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) are developed and estimated for three variables considered as routes for public investment: investment, payroll and costing expenses. The robustness of the estimates allow us to infer that: i) fiscal adjustment of Brazilian states was based upon expansion of the tax burden and the reduction of public investment, ii) the last year before new elections, the public investment and the primary result of the last periods and, mainly, credit revenues contribute to the expansion of public investment, iii) adjustments in the tax instruments used to keep public finances stable can help in order to reverse the downward trend of investment without compromising the statesâ fiscal balance.

Este trabalho discute o federalismo do ponto de vista de suas relações com o regime político democrático. Se o argumento de Alfred Stepan (1999) é de que o federalismo constrange as decisões do centro nacional e por isso seria anti-democrático, contrapõem-se uma visão consociativa, no qual o federalismo é visto como importante para integrar minorias dentro de sociedades eminentemente heterogêneas. A referência aqui é o trabalho de Arend Lijphart (2003). A democracia federativa brasileira é o campo de análise empírico, por meio de uma de suas instituições federativas, o Senado Federal. Examinamos os efeitos da desproporcionalidade desta casa com os da Câmara dos Deputados, a partir das possibilidades eventuais de vetos às propostas de emendas à Constituição. E a partir daí analisamos o governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), por causa de seu caráter reformista, através de emendas constitucionais, a maior parte delas com impacto federativo. E se dentre estas emendas, as de caráter fiscal são as mais recorrentes, pesquisamos o papel do Senado no processo de ajuste fiscal deste governo, primeiro com relação à renegociação das dívidas estaduais e em segundo nas votações nominais do Fundo Social de Emergência (FSE) e suas renovações. Com isso procuramos verificar se, como e em que situações o Senado atuaria em defesa dos interesses dos estados (e regiões) que representa ou cooperaria com os intereses do governo, por meio dos partidos políticos. / This work discusses federalism from the standpoint of its relationship with the democratic political regime. If the viewpoint of Alfred Stepan (1999) is that federalism constrains decisionmaking at the national center, thus becoming anti-democratic, a consociative view is opposed: federalism would be important for the integration of minorities within eminently heterogeneous societies. In this work, the reference will be the work of Arend Lijphart (2003). The Brazilian federative democracy is the empirical field of analysis, through its federative institutions, the Federal Senate. We examine the effects of the disproportionallity of that body in relation to the Chamber of Deputies, manifest in the eventual possibilities of vetoes to proposed amendments to the Constitution, and we analyze the administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), because of its reformist character, through constitutional amendments, most of them with federative impact. Since among those amendments, the fiscal-related ones are the most recurrent, we have researched the role of the Senate in the process of fiscal adjustment made by that administration, firstly in relation to the renegotiation of state-debts, and secondly in relation to nominal voting concerning Fundo Social de Emergência (FSE, or Emergency Social Fund) and its extensions. With that we have tried to verify whether, how and in which situations the Senate would be acting on behalf of the interest of the States (and regions) that the Senate represents, or whether it would cooperate with the interests of the administration, through party politics.

WHY SHOULD TURKEY CONTINUE WITH STRONG FISCAL ADJUSTEMENT? LESSONS DERIVED FROM THE PAST AgAR PASLI, Mediha M.S., Department of Economics Supervisor: Associate Prof. Dr. Nadir &Ouml / CAL November 2006, 87 pages Turkey managed to produce a strong fiscal adjustment during the period of 1999-2005 with the annual average of close to 5 percent. Moreover, with the help of this tight fiscal stance, Turkey&rsquo / s public debt has been reduced from the peak of 90.5 percent of GNP in 2001 to 55.8 percent in 2005. Although this is a major achievement both in terms of the size and the speed, the challenge for Turkey is now to continue with fiscal adjustment in order to further reduce its public debt level which still poses a sizeable vulnerability risk for the economy. Therefore, in order to provide an answer to the sustainability question, this thesis first aims to (i) measure the fiscal adjustment in Turkey at the general government level during 1999-2005 period, (ii) analyze sources of fiscal adjustment based on the economic classification, institutional breakdown, and cyclical and structural components. After understanding size and sources of adjustment, the reduction in public debt will be decomposed into its parts including the contribution come from primary surplus. This will shed light on whether Turkey could still rely on those factors for further reduction in public debt in the future.

The interest in the use of fiscal policy as an effective economic policy tool has been revived recently, since the global recession of 2008 hit the world. In spite of a large empirical literature, there remains substantial uncertainty about the size and even the direction of the effects of discretionary fiscal policy. This thesis seeks to investigate the macroeconomic effects of discretionary fiscal policy in the short term, highlighting several methodologies for identifying discretionary fiscal policy. In Chapters 2 and 3, we suggest a new instrument based on the narrative approach for identifying exogenous government spending shocks: natural disaster damages and the subsequent government emergency spending. While applying our methodology to the Korean and the U.S data, we find that our instrument is not only powerful but also superior to military build-ups used by most of the literature. The relief expenditure in the wake of natural disaster has several advantages such as the similarity in scope to general government activity and the easy applicability beyond the U.S. compared to military build-ups. In the analysis of Korean fiscal policy, using our narrative method and the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we find that government spending shocks increase GDP, consumption, and real wage, which is in line with the New Keynesian model. We also find that the timing is crucial in identifying government spending shocks due to the anticipation effects of fiscal policy. Furthermore, while analyzing the U.S. fiscal policy both at the state as well as national level, we estimate two kinds of non-defense spending multipliers: federal (1.4~1.7) and state (1.5~2.5), which exceed the defense spending multiplier obtained in the literature using military building-ups. In Chapter 4, in regard to the study of effects of fiscal adjustment, we develop the approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) by including fluctuations of asset price in the CAPB measure and allowing for individual country heterogeneity in the definition of fiscal adjustment. Using our new CAPB in 20 OECD countries, we find that fiscal adjustments have contractionary effects on economic activity in the short term, which is consistent with the result based on the narrative approach. Nevertheless, our results suggest that fiscal adjustments that rely predominantly on spending cuts are less contractionary than those involving tax increases.

Este trabalho discute o federalismo do ponto de vista de suas relações com o regime político democrático. Se o argumento de Alfred Stepan (1999) é de que o federalismo constrange as decisões do centro nacional e por isso seria anti-democrático, contrapõem-se uma visão consociativa, no qual o federalismo é visto como importante para integrar minorias dentro de sociedades eminentemente heterogêneas. A referência aqui é o trabalho de Arend Lijphart (2003). A democracia federativa brasileira é o campo de análise empírico, por meio de uma de suas instituições federativas, o Senado Federal. Examinamos os efeitos da desproporcionalidade desta casa com os da Câmara dos Deputados, a partir das possibilidades eventuais de vetos às propostas de emendas à Constituição. E a partir daí analisamos o governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), por causa de seu caráter reformista, através de emendas constitucionais, a maior parte delas com impacto federativo. E se dentre estas emendas, as de caráter fiscal são as mais recorrentes, pesquisamos o papel do Senado no processo de ajuste fiscal deste governo, primeiro com relação à renegociação das dívidas estaduais e em segundo nas votações nominais do Fundo Social de Emergência (FSE) e suas renovações. Com isso procuramos verificar se, como e em que situações o Senado atuaria em defesa dos interesses dos estados (e regiões) que representa ou cooperaria com os intereses do governo, por meio dos partidos políticos. / This work discusses federalism from the standpoint of its relationship with the democratic political regime. If the viewpoint of Alfred Stepan (1999) is that federalism constrains decisionmaking at the national center, thus becoming anti-democratic, a consociative view is opposed: federalism would be important for the integration of minorities within eminently heterogeneous societies. In this work, the reference will be the work of Arend Lijphart (2003). The Brazilian federative democracy is the empirical field of analysis, through its federative institutions, the Federal Senate. We examine the effects of the disproportionallity of that body in relation to the Chamber of Deputies, manifest in the eventual possibilities of vetoes to proposed amendments to the Constitution, and we analyze the administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), because of its reformist character, through constitutional amendments, most of them with federative impact. Since among those amendments, the fiscal-related ones are the most recurrent, we have researched the role of the Senate in the process of fiscal adjustment made by that administration, firstly in relation to the renegotiation of state-debts, and secondly in relation to nominal voting concerning Fundo Social de Emergência (FSE, or Emergency Social Fund) and its extensions. With that we have tried to verify whether, how and in which situations the Senate would be acting on behalf of the interest of the States (and regions) that the Senate represents, or whether it would cooperate with the interests of the administration, through party politics.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:23:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-08-02Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:50:58Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 reis_sg_me_arafcl.pdf: 759441 bytes, checksum: d0ec83df886c99b13770a5ab0db4de42 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A presente pesquisa tem por objetivo analisar os efeitos do ajuste fiscal na economia brasileira no período de 1994 a 2008 sobre a cadeia produtiva. Procura-se descrever os efeitos restritivos deste ajuste fiscal a partir da inadequada coordenação da política fiscal e monetária. A política fiscal tornou-se subordinada à monetária, exigindo robustos superávits primários atrelados à ascendente e excessiva carga tributária. O orçamento, no entanto, permaneceu registrando déficit nominal. A maior parte das despesas públicas corresponde às despesas financeiras (juros e encargos da dívida). A política econômica e as medidas macroeconômicas tomadas no âmbito do ajuste fiscal no período que se trata provocaram a queda do multiplicador de gastos que, por sua vez, inibiu a geração de emprego, renda e consumo. A reflexão sobre a mensuração da carga tributária permite desenvolver uma análise crítica e descritiva do ajuste fiscal num contexto de dominância monetária e estabelecer o vínculo entre as decisões do governo, nas matérias fiscal e monetária, com o setor produtivo. Conseqüentemente, isso repercutiu sobre o nível de investimento e de reinvestimento na economia / This research aims to examine the effects of fiscal adjustment in the Brazilian economy during the period 1994 to 2008 on the chain. It seeks to describe the restrictive effects of fiscal adjustment from the inadequate coordination of monetary and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy has become subject to monetary policy, requiring robust primary surpluses and tied up the excessive tax burden. The budget, however, remained recording nominal deficit. Most public expenditure meets the financial expenses (interest and debt charges). The economic policy and the macroeconomic measures taken in the context of fiscal adjustment in the period that this precipitated the collapse multiplier of expenses that, in turn, inhibited the generation of employment, income and consumption. The discussion on the measurement of tax burden can develop a descriptive and critical analysis of fiscal adjustment in a context of monetary dominance and establish a link between the government decisions in matters fiscal and monetary policy, with the productive sector. Consequently, this impacted on the level of investment and reinvestment in the economy

Submitted by carlos ladeira (kaduladeira@yahoo.com.br) on 2015-04-23T16:57:41Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Carlos.pdf: 575576 bytes, checksum: f4689fd7125704fc0d02cea6a72afd85 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2015-04-23T17:40:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Carlos.pdf: 575576 bytes, checksum: f4689fd7125704fc0d02cea6a72afd85 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-23T17:42:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Carlos.pdf: 575576 bytes, checksum: f4689fd7125704fc0d02cea6a72afd85 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-14 / A common feature in programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the use of conditionalities, macroeconomic and structural measures that a requesting country should adopt to obtain an assistance package. The objective of this work is to conduct an empirical analysis of the economic and political determinants of such conditionalities. In particular, our main contribution consists in the development of a new measure of conditionality, fiscal adjustment, and its comparison with the most used in the literature, the number of conditions. We choose fiscal adjustment because it is an adequate proxy for program austerity, since its implementation carries economic and political costs. In the empirical exercise, we use data from 184 programs in the period of 1999 and 2012, and estimate how our two measures of conditionalities respond to the economic and political factors. Our results suggest that they are quite different. The main determinant of the number of conditions is the political proximity of the borrowing country to the Fund’s major shareholders, the members of G5. On the other hand, the main determinant of fiscal adjustment is the size of the government fiscal deficit. Finally, we did not find correlation between the size of fiscal adjustment and the number of conditions. These results suggest that the analysis of the content of IMF programs should take into account the different measures of agreed conditionality. / Uma característica comum nos programas do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) é a utilização de condicionalidades, medidas macroeconômicas e estruturais que o país demandante deve adotar para obter um pacote de assistência. Neste trabalho, o objetivo é conduzir uma análise empírica dos determinantes econômicos e políticos das condicionalidades. Em particular, nossa principal contribuição consiste na construção de uma nova medida de condicionalidade, o ajuste fiscal, e a comparação desta com a mais utilizada na literatura, qual seja, o número de condicionalidades. Escolhemos o ajuste fiscal pois trata-se de uma medida adequada da austeridade de um programa, já que sua implementação acarreta custos econômicos e políticos para o país. No exercício empírico, utilizamos dados de 184 programas no período de 1999 a 2012, e estimamos como as nossas duas medidas de condicionalidades respondem aos fatores econômicos e políticos. Nossos resultados indicam que elas são de fato diferentes. Por um lado, o principal determinante do número de condicionalidades é a proximidade política do país tomador do empréstimo com os principais membros do Fundo, os países do G5. Por outro, a principal motivação do ajuste fiscal é o tamanho do déficit do governo. Por fim, não encontramos correlação entre o tamanho do ajuste fiscal e o número de condicionalidades. Tais resultados sugerem que a análise dos termos dos programas do FMI deve levar em conta os diferentes tipos de condicionalidades que são acordadas.

Orientador: Elton Eustáquio Casagrande / Banca: Fernando Ferrari Filho / Banca: Mário Augusto Bertella / Resumo: A presente pesquisa tem por objetivo analisar os efeitos do ajuste fiscal na economia brasileira no período de 1994 a 2008 sobre a cadeia produtiva. Procura-se descrever os efeitos restritivos deste ajuste fiscal a partir da inadequada coordenação da política fiscal e monetária. A política fiscal tornou-se subordinada à monetária, exigindo robustos superávits primários atrelados à ascendente e excessiva carga tributária. O orçamento, no entanto, permaneceu registrando déficit nominal. A maior parte das despesas públicas corresponde às despesas financeiras (juros e encargos da dívida). A política econômica e as medidas macroeconômicas tomadas no âmbito do ajuste fiscal no período que se trata provocaram a queda do multiplicador de gastos que, por sua vez, inibiu a geração de emprego, renda e consumo. A reflexão sobre a mensuração da carga tributária permite desenvolver uma análise crítica e descritiva do ajuste fiscal num contexto de dominância monetária e estabelecer o vínculo entre as decisões do governo, nas matérias fiscal e monetária, com o setor produtivo. Conseqüentemente, isso repercutiu sobre o nível de investimento e de reinvestimento na economia / Abstract: This research aims to examine the effects of fiscal adjustment in the Brazilian economy during the period 1994 to 2008 on the chain. It seeks to describe the restrictive effects of fiscal adjustment from the inadequate coordination of monetary and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy has become subject to monetary policy, requiring robust primary surpluses and tied up the excessive tax burden. The budget, however, remained recording nominal deficit. Most public expenditure meets the financial expenses (interest and debt charges). The economic policy and the macroeconomic measures taken in the context of fiscal adjustment in the period that this precipitated the collapse multiplier of expenses that, in turn, inhibited the generation of employment, income and consumption. The discussion on the measurement of tax burden can develop a descriptive and critical analysis of fiscal adjustment in a context of monetary dominance and establish a link between the government decisions in matters fiscal and monetary policy, with the productive sector. Consequently, this impacted on the level of investment and reinvestment in the economy / Mestre