Concerns about the state of public finances in the main advanced economies have increased as a result of the global financial and economic crisis that started in late 2007 - 2008. The fiscal solvency of several euro area peripheral countries has been put under the spotlight of the market participants who started to believe that a sovereign default was likely to happen in an advanced economy member of the euro area. This thesis seeks to investigate the sovereign risk in the euro area countries during the period before, during and after the crisis by focusing on the sovereign bond and credit default swaps spreads and the factors that drive them. In Chapters 2, we investigate the determinants of the government bond yields and sovereign credit default swaps. In our analysis for the government bond yields we find that the macroeconomic fundamentals used in our analysis are highly significant for the periphery countries, while they are less or not significant at all for the core euro area countries. We also find evidence that during the crisis the fluctuations of the government bond yields are not only explained by the macroeconomic fundamentals but also explained by factors related to the uncertainty in the euro area. In Chapter 3, we employ the panel cointegration approach in order to investigate the macroeconomic and financial indicators that impacted the sovereign credit default swaps in the crisis period using data from October 2008 until December 2014. We provide fresh evidence that the financial indicators, proxied by the iTraxx index as well as liquidity indicators, proxied by the bid-ask had a dominant role in explaining the CDS in almost all countries. In Chapter 4, in regard to the study of the price discovery relationship between the government bond yields and sovereign CDS, we suggest the use of cointegration methodology and also test for a structural break using the Gregory and Hanson approach to investigate the linkages between the two instruments. The structural break test suggests that the relation changed during the crisis and that the price discovery took place in the CDS market. Finally, in Chapter 5, we investigate the main factors causing the sovereign defaults. We use a panel of 99 countries to assess the impact that various macroeconomic and political risk indicators have on sovereign defaults on foreign currency bank loans, foreign currency bonds and local currency debt, utilizing an extended database constructed by the Bank of Canada. Our results suggest that the favorable economic indicators, lower debt levels, and higher political stability all reduce the likelihood of default. We also find that the capital outflows restrictions are positively associated with higher probability of default.

Submitted by Gabriel Leal de barros (gabrielf32@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-03-29T12:47:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Resultado_Fiscal_Estrutural_GLBarros.pdf: 1412105 bytes, checksum: 72b536ef29ccda5d7e8e272f96056101 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-04-12T12:29:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Resultado_Fiscal_Estrutural_GLBarros.pdf: 1412105 bytes, checksum: 72b536ef29ccda5d7e8e272f96056101 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2018-04-12T12:47:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Resultado_Fiscal_Estrutural_GLBarros.pdf: 1412105 bytes, checksum: 72b536ef29ccda5d7e8e272f96056101 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-12T12:48:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Resultado_Fiscal_Estrutural_GLBarros.pdf: 1412105 bytes, checksum: 72b536ef29ccda5d7e8e272f96056101 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-22 / After the beginning of the economic stabilization process, initiated just before and established by the Real Plan in 1994, there was a notable advance in 2000 with the introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF). The commitment fiscal policy rule in later years, through raising and sustaining the primary result, produced, complement to significant reductions of indebtedness, relative solace with the design of the country's fiscal institutions. With the outbreak of the international crisis in 2008, a period in which fiscal policy was use as a countercyclical instrument much has changed. The conventional fiscal statistics gradually lost relative importance due to a series of accounting issues that had an impact on public accounts. Non-recurring events grew both in quantity and in volume, affecting the economic agents perception regarding the effective fiscal position. The deceleration of post-crisis growth and the deep economic recession experienced in 2016 and 2017 expanded the magnitude of the worsening and deepened the fiscal imbalance of the country. During this period, several economic studies and international research were develop in order to improve the evaluation of the impact of fiscal policy, at which time the calculation of the fiscal result adjusted by the economic cycle gained more spotlight. Despite the different methodologies available for its measurement, empirical results point out that it can make more or less sense to adopt it as a modern rule of fiscal policy. From this perspective, its feasibility depends on a series of preconditions that reflect, in a sense, the degree of accountability, transparency, maturity and consensus of economic institutions and agents. From the point of view of the usefulness to estimate the fiscal impulse on the aggregate demand and inflation and, therefore, of the relation between the fiscal and monetary policies, its application is valuable. / Após o início do processo de estabilização econômica, iniciado pouco antes e consagrado com o Plano Real em 1994, houve notável avanço em 2000 com a edição da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF). A consagração da regra de política fiscal nos anos posteriores, através da elevação e sustentação do resultado primário, produziu além de reduções importantes nos níveis de endividamento, relativo conforto com o design da institucionalidade fiscal do país. Com a eclosão da crise internacional em 2008, período onde a política fiscal passou a ser utilizada como instrumento anticíclico, muita coisa mudou. As estatísticas fiscais tradicionais perderam, gradativamente, importância relativa em função de uma série de questões contábeis que passaram a impactar as contas públicas. Os eventos não recorrentes cresceram tanto em quantidade quanto em volume, afetando a percepção dos agentes econômicos a respeito da efetiva posição fiscal. A desaceleração do crescimento no pós-crise e a profunda recessão econômica vivida em 2015 e 2016, potencializou a magnitude da piora e aprofundou o desequilíbrio fiscal estrutural do país. Durante esse período, diversos estudos econômicos e pesquisas internacionais foram desenvolvidos no sentido de aperfeiçoar a avaliação de impacto da política fiscal, momento em que o cálculo do resultado fiscal ajustado pelo ciclo econômico ganhou maior destaque. Não obstante as diversas metodologias disponíveis para sua mensuração, resultados empíricos apontam que pode fazer mais ou menos sentido adotá-lo como regra mais moderna de política fiscal. Sob essa perspectiva, sua viabilidade depende de uma série de pré-condições que reflitam em certo sentido, o grau de accountability, transparência, maturidade e consenso das instituições e agentes econômicos. Do ponto de vista da utilidade para estimar o impulso fiscal sobre a demanda agregada e inflação e, portanto, da relação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária, sua aplicação é valiosa.

O termo realocação da poupança interna se refere ao fato de que os instrumentos de política econômica e de planejamento econômico que passam a possibilitar o autofinanciamento do Estado pelo mecanismo de emissão monetária só podem ser materializados por meio do lado real da economia, através da reestruturação do processo de formação da poupança interna. Realocação, neste caso, vem a ser sinônimo de “reutilização” e “alavancagem”, isto é, os instrumentos de formação das finanças públicas são determinados por um mecanismo de criação e de destruição automáticas de moeda e de posterior reutilização da mesma moeda emitida anteriormente. Neste sistema, o Estado determina o volume de recursos públicos através da emissão monetária, pelo fato desta moeda possuir “lastro fiduciário”, em razão de sua respectiva “destruição automática” no momento exato de sua criação. / The term reallocation of domestic saving refers to the fact that the instruments of economic policy and economic planning that allow the self-financing of the State from its own currency by the mechanism of monetary emission can only be materialized in the real economy by the restructuring of the process of formation of the domestic saving. Reallocation in this case comes to be synonymous with “reuse” and “leverage”, that is, public finance techniques are determined by a mechanism for automatic creating and destruction of currency, and subsequent reuse of the same currency issued formerly. In this system, the State determines the amount of available public resources through monetary emission, given that this currency has “real fiduciary backing” based on its respective “automatic destruction” at the exact moment of its creation.

O termo realocação da poupança interna se refere ao fato de que os instrumentos de política econômica e de planejamento econômico que passam a possibilitar o autofinanciamento do Estado pelo mecanismo de emissão monetária só podem ser materializados por meio do lado real da economia, através da reestruturação do processo de formação da poupança interna. Realocação, neste caso, vem a ser sinônimo de “reutilização” e “alavancagem”, isto é, os instrumentos de formação das finanças públicas são determinados por um mecanismo de criação e de destruição automáticas de moeda e de posterior reutilização da mesma moeda emitida anteriormente. Neste sistema, o Estado determina o volume de recursos públicos através da emissão monetária, pelo fato desta moeda possuir “lastro fiduciário”, em razão de sua respectiva “destruição automática” no momento exato de sua criação. / The term reallocation of domestic saving refers to the fact that the instruments of economic policy and economic planning that allow the self-financing of the State from its own currency by the mechanism of monetary emission can only be materialized in the real economy by the restructuring of the process of formation of the domestic saving. Reallocation in this case comes to be synonymous with “reuse” and “leverage”, that is, public finance techniques are determined by a mechanism for automatic creating and destruction of currency, and subsequent reuse of the same currency issued formerly. In this system, the State determines the amount of available public resources through monetary emission, given that this currency has “real fiduciary backing” based on its respective “automatic destruction” at the exact moment of its creation.

O termo realocação da poupança interna se refere ao fato de que os instrumentos de política econômica e de planejamento econômico que passam a possibilitar o autofinanciamento do Estado pelo mecanismo de emissão monetária só podem ser materializados por meio do lado real da economia, através da reestruturação do processo de formação da poupança interna. Realocação, neste caso, vem a ser sinônimo de “reutilização” e “alavancagem”, isto é, os instrumentos de formação das finanças públicas são determinados por um mecanismo de criação e de destruição automáticas de moeda e de posterior reutilização da mesma moeda emitida anteriormente. Neste sistema, o Estado determina o volume de recursos públicos através da emissão monetária, pelo fato desta moeda possuir “lastro fiduciário”, em razão de sua respectiva “destruição automática” no momento exato de sua criação. / The term reallocation of domestic saving refers to the fact that the instruments of economic policy and economic planning that allow the self-financing of the State from its own currency by the mechanism of monetary emission can only be materialized in the real economy by the restructuring of the process of formation of the domestic saving. Reallocation in this case comes to be synonymous with “reuse” and “leverage”, that is, public finance techniques are determined by a mechanism for automatic creating and destruction of currency, and subsequent reuse of the same currency issued formerly. In this system, the State determines the amount of available public resources through monetary emission, given that this currency has “real fiduciary backing” based on its respective “automatic destruction” at the exact moment of its creation.

La société en participation ne s’analyse pas comme une société classique. Elle ne se dissout pas, elle est résolue ou résiliée, comme tout contrat de partenariat. Sa force, sa réalité, demeure dans le contrat librement choisi par les participants, tant dans son élaboration que dans l’organisation même de la société, situation intermédiaire entre un contrat classique et les sociétés institution. C’est l’application du principe d’autonomie de la volonté. Dans ce cas de figure, l’affectio societatis se rapproche le plus de la notion de jus fraternitatis, du moins lors de l’élaboration des statuts, ce que certains auteurs nomment l’affectio contractus. Finalement, en raison de son caractère éminemment contractuel, à la place de société en participation, ne faudrait-il pas plutôt l’appeler contrat de société en participation ? Il s’agit dès lors de lui reconnaître son caractère de contrat à part entière, un contrat nommé du Code civil. La jurisprudence semble aller dans ce sens. / The joint-venture company cannot be analysed like a typical firm. It cannot be dissolved; it is solved or cancelled, as is any partnership agreement. Its strength, its reality, remains in the contract freely chosen by the participants, both in its elaboration and in the very organization of the firm, which consists in an intermediate situation between a classic contract and an “institution firm”. It is the application of the principle of will autonomy. In such a case, the “affectio societatis” is as close as it gets to the notion of “jus fraternitatis”, at least during the elaboration of the statutes which some authors name the “affectio contractus”. Eventually, because of this eminently contractual character, instead of joint-venture firm, should we not call it a firm participation partnership? What’s at stake here is the acknowledgment of its full contract character, as a contract named by the Civil code. The jurisprudence seems to go in that direction.