Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:44:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alessandra Orchis Machado.pdf: 1676745 bytes, checksum: fda25269467d033aa40b44f2831d2a4d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-27 / Most companies have to manage their foreign exchange risk, and the appropriate use of financial derivatives would consist among most efficient strategies to minimize this risk. Through the theory of modern finance, the combination of rationality and technique would be sufficient to ensure the success of protection policies, generating low volatility of results and value to businesses. However, behavioral finance theory has identified that agents psycological and social factors interfere in decision process, and may cause unexpected results to individuals and companies. Thus, this study expects to answer why not always use currency derivatives for hedging purposes adds value to the firms, despite its benefits seem obvious. For it, it was analyzed secondary data from Brazil, emerging country with currency volatility and growing derivatives market, suitable for behavioral studies. Among many behavioral aspects presented in financial theory, this research delimited its analysis in anchoring, availability, herd behavior and aversion to certain loss. Anchoring and availability heuristics, would be expressed by managers decisions based on market forecasts was analyzed by correlation between observed and projected foreign exchange rates. The herd effect was studied by the time series evolution of the exchange rate and outstanding of OTC derivatives. The aversion to certain loss, was studied by the correlation between the hedging premium, differential between spot and futures exchange, and the evolution derivatives outstanding. By these data it was possible to identify moderately the heuristics and herd behavior. The aversion to certain loss was not evidenced by the data studied. Anyway, this research contributes to academic foundations, companies and regulators, and provides fertile field for further studies / Boa parte das empresas são desafiadas a gerir seu risco cambial, sendo que a utilização adequada de derivativos financeiros constaria entre as estratégias mais eficientes para minimização deste risco. Pela teoria de finanças moderna, a combinação entre racionalidade e técnica seriam suficientes e garantiriam o sucesso de políticas de proteção, gerando baixa volatilidade de resultados e valor às empresas. Contudo, a teoria de finanças comportamentais identificou que fatores psicossociais dos agentes interferem no processo decisório, podendo gerar resultados inesperados a indivíduos e empresas. Assim, com este estudo espera-se responder por que nem sempre o uso de derivativos cambiais com finalidade de hedge adiciona valor às empresas, apesar de seus benefícios parecerem óbvios. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados secundários do Brasil, país emergente com alta volatilidade cambial e mercado de derivativos crescente, propício para estudos comportamentais. Entre os diversos aspectos comportamentais apresentados na teoria financeira, esta pesquisa delimitou sua análise na ancoragem, disponibilidade, efeito manada e aversão à perda certa. A ancoragem e a disponibilidade, as heurísticas, manifestadas por gestores que tomariam decisões de hedge baseadas em projeções de câmbio do mercado, foram analisadas pela correlação entre câmbio projetado e observado. Para o efeito manada buscou-se identificar relações entre as séries temporais, evolução da taxa de câmbio e estoque de derivativos de balcão. A aversão à perda certa, por sua vez, foi estudada por meio do cálculo de correlação entre prêmio pelo hedge, diferencial de pontos entre câmbios à vista e futuro, e evolução do estoque de derivativos. As amostras estudadas permitiram a identificação, ainda que moderada, de potenciais deficiências das heurísticas e efeito manada. Já a aversão à perda certa não foi evidenciada na base de dados estudada. De qualquer forma, esta pesquisa contribui para as bases acadêmicas, empresas e órgãos reguladores, e apresenta terreno fértil para novos estudos

With an increasingly globalized world of multinational firms dominating the global market, firms have discovered the impact of transaction exposure on their business. To handle the risk, firms can hedge their transaction exposure with currency derivatives. This paper aims to determine and explain what variables, beyond the size of the transaction exposure, affect firms’ usage of currency derivatives for hedging purposes. Previous research shows a divided estimation of what underlying causes. The variables studied to explain the usage of currency derivatives are industry affiliation, size of firm, geographical dispersal and profitability. With a sample size of 70 major Swedish internationally active non-financial firms, a multiple regression analysis was constructed to potentially demonstrate causality. To create a method triangulation, an interview with a currency derivatives expert was conducted as a complement to the quantitative strategy. The result of this paper indicates that industry affiliation possibly affects firm’s usage of currency derivatives for hedging purposes, however none of the studied variables show a sufficient statistical significance to prove a causality. / Med en allt mer globaliserad värld med multinationella företag som dominerar den globala marknaden har företagen upptäckt transaktionsexponeringens påverkan på dess verksamhet. För att hantera risken kan företag säkra sin transaktionsexponering med hjälp av valutaderivat. Denna studie ämnar till att fastslå och förklara vilka variabler, utöver transaktionsexponeringens storlek, som påverkar svenska rörelsedrivande företags användande av valutaderivat i säkringssyfte. Inom tidigare forskningen råder delade meningar om vilka bakomliggande orsaker som påverkar företags användande av valutaderivat. De variabler som undersöktes för att förklara användandet av valutaderivat är företagens branschtillhörighet, dess storlek, verksamhetens geografiska spridning samt dess lönsamhet. Med ett urval på 70 stora svenska internationellt verksamma rörelsedrivna företag gjordes en multipel regressionsanalys för att påvisa samband mellan användandet av valutaderivat i transaktionssäkringssyfte och påverkande variabler. För att skapa en metodtriangulering genomfördes även en intervju med en valutaderivatexpert som ett komplement till den kvantitativa strategin. Resultatet av studien indikerar på att branschtillhörighet möjligen kan påverka företagens användande av valutaderivat men ingen av de studerade variablerna uppvisade en tillräcklig signifikans för att statistiskt säkerställa sambanden.

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.

Dauguma šiuolaikinių finansų valdymo ir investicijų mokslinių darbų akcentuoja finansinės rizikos valdymo svarbą finansinių institucijų veiklai. Augančioje finansų rinkoje aktyviais dalyviais tampa įmonės, kurių ilgalaikei sėkmei įtakos turi finansinių lėšų valdymas. Magistro darbe išanalizuoti ir susisteminti įvairių Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių teoriniai ir praktiniai iždo rizikų valdymo aspektai, sukeliantys riziką veiksniai, rizikos rūšys, iždo rizikų įvertinimo ir valdymo metodai. Parodyta, kad pagrindinis rizikos valdymo tikslas nebūtinai yra jos išvengti, o suprasti kritinius rizikos veiksnius ir profesionaliai juos valdyti. Atlikus analizę AB „Mažeikių nafta“ nustatytos šios iždo rizikos: rinkos (valiutų kurso, palūkanų normos, biržinių prekių kainos kitimo), likvidumo, kredito, operacinė. Panaudojus rizikos vertės VaR@95% metodo skaičiavimus, įvertintas iždo rizikų poveikis bendrovės finansinių išteklių formavimui. Patvirtinta autorės suformuluota mokslinio tyrimo hipotezė, kad iždo rizikų strateginis valdymas įmonėje stabilizuoja įmonės pinigų srautus, sumažina įmonės nuostolius dėl finansų rinkos neigiamų pokyčių, pagerina pelningumo prognozavimą. / Most of today’s finance management and investment scientific papers emphasize the importance of finance risk management for the financial institution activities. The companies the long-term success of which comes from the funds management become the active participants in the growing financial market. The Master’s Thesis analyses and systemizes the theoretical and practical aspects of treasury risk management, factors causing risk, types of risks, methods of treasury risk evaluation and management as described by various Lithuanian and foreign authors. It identifies that the main goal of risk management is not necessarily to prevent the risk but to understand the critical risk factors and manage them in professional way. After the analysis has been made the following treasury risks were identified for AB Mažeikių Nafta: market (currency rate exchange, interest rate, commodity price fluctuation), liquidity, credit, operations. Using risk value VaR@95% method calculations the treasury risk impact to the formation of the company financial resources was evaluated. The scientific research hypothesis of the author stating that treasury risk strategy management in the Company stabilizes the Company’s cash flows, reduces loses resulted from negative changes in the finance market, improves the profitability forecasting was proved to be correct.

Made available in DSpace on 2008-05-13T13:47:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2194.pdf: 259719 bytes, checksum: df2dee8aa9a2da75df6fda3a95950724 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-09-26 / De 2002 a 2006 a moeda nacional brasileira, o real, vem sofrendo crescente valorização, tendência que afeta negativamente o setor exportativo no Brasil. Este trabalho refere-se o impacto desta valorização numa indústria específica do setor de exportação, a de turismo receptivo. São destacados os modelos de contratos atuais e analisada a proposição de um novo modelo de contrato, fechado em moeda nacional para as vendas internacionais, visando minimizar o risco cambial inerente à atividade. Os resultados indicam que a adoção deste novo modelo contratual eliminaria o risco cambial da parte da cadeia de distribuição situada no território nacional, trocando este por risco de demanda em função da flutuação do preço para o cliente final.

International companies perform business transactions in different countries all over the world and must be able to manage their financial assets in various currencies. Significant foreign exchange alteration can markedly harm market value of any company. The companies use so called 'hedging' to avoid such situations. The aim of this master thesis is to analyze specifics of currency operations based on a case study in the international company and its transaction exposure. The thesis discovers that the selected company uses only two types of 'hedging'.

The thesis is focused on the management of exchange rate risk in international trade. The work is divided into theoretical and practical part. The first part deals with the theories of the exchange rate, exchange rate risk and also on its management. The most common way of risk hedging is the use of currency derivatives. Therefore their advantages and disadvantages will be presented. In the practical part, theoretical knowledge will be applied to foreign exchange risk management of a specific Czech international trading company. After evaluating of its current approach, more effective hedging strategy will be suggested.

The thesis primarily deals with the foreign exchange risk in the manufactory company Šroubárna Kyjov spol. s r.o. The aim of the thesis was to evaluate the current situation in the company using selected elements of financial analysis and performing strategic analysis. Based on the analysis of the foreign exchange risk in previous years and on the basis of the CZK/EUR exchange rate forecast, measures were proposed for the next period.

För investerare vars portföljer utgörs av internationella investeringar är det i synnerhet viktigt att begrunda beroendestrukturen mellan internationella investeringar och valutakurser. Detta på grund av den valutarisk som investeraren exponerar sig mot utöver de internationella tillgångarnas inneboende risk. I denna studie undersöks hur svenska investerare med investeringar i den amerikanska aktie- och företagsobligationsmarknaden påverkas av valutakursförändringar i USD:SEK. De amerikanska investeringarna är i denna studie denominerade i amerikanska dollar men portföljen och dess risk är denominerad i svenska kronor, portföljen påverkas därmed av valutaeffekten.Vidare undersöks samvariationen mellan dessa tillgångar och en optimal valutahedge upprättas för att reducera svansrisk i en sådan portfölj.  För att bestämma en optimal valutahedge optimeras CVaR för nio olika portföljer med olika viktning av S&P 500, investment grade- företagsobligationer och high yield-företagsobligationer. Två metoder för att ta fram scenariopriser till optimeringen används: historisk simulering samt Monte Carlo-simulering från en vine-copula. Resultaten i denna studie antyder att svenska investerare bör hedga bort viss exponering mot USD. På den amerikanska aktiemarknaden bör större andel av valutarisken bibehållas än på den amerikanska high yield-obligationsmarknaden. Detta antyder att viss valutarisk bidrar med en hedgande effekt. På den amerikanska investment grade-obligationsmarknaden bör endast en mycket liten exponering mot USD bibehållas och ingen tydlig hedgande effekt kunde påvisas. Analys av samvariation mellan amerikansk aktiemarknad, företagsobligationsmarknad och valutakursen USD:SEK antyder att USD:SEK uppvisar förhöjt negativt beroende vid svansutfall i både den amerikanska aktiemarknaden och high yield-obligationsmarknaden. Detta antyder att USD uppvisar så kallade safe haven-egenskaper för svenska investerare i dessa marknader. / For investors whose portfolios consist of international investments, it is of particular importance to consider the dependence structure between international investments and foreign exchange rates. This is due to the currency risk that the investor is exposed to in addition to the inherent risk of the international assets. This study examines how Swedish investors with investments in the US equity and corporate bond market are affected by exchange rate fluctuations in the currency pair USD:SEK. In this study, US investments are denominated in US dollars, but the portfolio and its risk are denominated in Swedish Kronor, the portfolio is thus affected by the foreign currency effect. Furthermore, the covariation between these assets is examined and an optimal hedge is established in order to reduce tail risk in such a portfolio. To determine the optimal currency hedge, CVaR is optimized for nine different portfolios with different weightings of S&P 500, investment grade corporate bonds and high yield corporate bonds. Two methods for producing scenario prices for the optimization are used: historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation from a vine copula. The results of this study suggest that Swedish investors should hedge some of the exposure against USD. In the US stock market, a larger share of currency risk should be maintained than in the US high yield bond market. This suggests that some currency risk contributes to a hedging effect. In the US investment grade bond market little exposure against USD should be maintained and no clear hedging effect could be demonstrated. Analysis of covariation between the US stock market, corporate bond market and the exchange rate USD:SEK indicates that USD:SEK displays increased negative dependence in tail events in boththe US stock market and the high yield bond market. This indicates that USD displays so-called safe haven properties for Swedish investors in these markets.

Multinational companies have consistently not been able to explain the impact currency and interest rates fluctuations have on their profits. To be able to account for these effects, thorough visibility is required. Epiroc Örebro is a global supplier of products and services within mining and infrastructure, with sales in more than 150 countries. The largest markets are Europe, North and South America and Asia. Naturally, with exposure to many different currencies and interest rates, it lies in the company’s interest to fully grasp and visualize the effects of these risk factors. The aim of this study is to provide and apply a performance attribution model to Epiroc Örebro, in order to fully grasp and visualize, how foreign exchange rates and interest rates affect the profits of the company’s operations on a daily basis. Main focus is on incorporating inventory into the performance attribution model. To fulfill the purpose of this thesis, literature studies on performance attribution models, foreign exchange risk, and interest rate risks were conducted. Epiroc Group and Epiroc Örebro were studied to get the full picture of their risk exposures. Consequently, a generic framework for performance attribution was extended, established and provided to their daily operations. The rigorous framework describes profit decomposition (ΔNPVt) with respect to risk factors. In summary, this mathematical model comprises of: a Taylor approximation for changes in price with several error terms, terms accounting for holding foreign currencies and assets, purchasing and sales of currencies and assets and lastly, a term accounting for currency fluctuations. See eq. (4.25) to eq. (4.35). The focus of this report is the addition of inventory into the existing performance attribution model. Inventory is valued to last purchase price and the value of inventory is only affected by price changes and exchange rate fluctuations. The main result of this study is that inventory can be incorporated into the performance attribution model. The model is comprehensive and fully explains the company’s NPV changes on a daily basis in detail. Furthermore, the conclusion is that the model can be extended to handle inventory, but several additions and adjustments are still to be added. Work regarding data extraction and cash flow prognosis will be required to scale the model and to enable real time use. / <p>Examensarbete i Finans från Civilingenjörsprogrammet i Industriell Ekonomi.</p>