In der Arbeit wird eine Methodik einer zusammenhängenden Analyse und modellhaften Beschreibung der Verkehrssicherheit in städtischen Hauptstraßennetzen am Beispiel der Stadt Dresden entwickelt. Die dabei gewonnenen Modelle dienen der Abschätzung von Erwartungswerten von Unfallhäufigkeiten mit und ohne Personenschaden unter Berücksichtigung der Verkehrsbeteiligungsart. Die Grundlage bilden multivariate Regressionsmodelle auf Basis verallgemeinerter linearer Modelle (GLM). Die Verwendung verallgemeinerter Regressionsmodelle erlaubt eine Berücksichtigung von Verteilungen, die besser geeignet sind, den Unfallentstehungsprozess wiederzugeben, als die häufig verwendete Normalverteilung. Im konkreten Fall werden hierzu die Poisson-Verteilung sowie die negative Binomialverteilung verwendet. Um Effekte im Hauptverkehrsstraßennetz möglichst trennscharf abbilden zu können, werden vier grundsätzliche Netzelemente differenziert und das Netz entsprechend zerlegt. Unterschieden werden neben Streckenabschnitten und Hauptverkehrsknotenpunkten auch Annäherungsbereiche und Anschlussknotenpunkte. Die Kollektive der Knotenpunkte werden ferner in signalisierte und nicht-signalisierte unterteilt. Es werden zunächst Modelle unterschiedlicher Unfallkollektive getrennt für alle Kollektive der vier Netzelemente berechnet. Anschließend werden verschiedene Vorgehensweisen für eine Zusammenfassung zu Netzmodellen entwickelt. Neben der Verwendung verkehrstechnischer und infrastruktureller Größen als erklärende Variable werden in der Arbeit auch Kenngrößen zur Beschreibung der Umfeldnutzung ermittelt und im Rahmen der Regression einbezogen. Die Quantifizierung der Umfeldnutzung erfolgt mit Hilfe von Korrelations-, Kontingenz- und von Hauptkomponentenanalysen (PCA). Im Ergebnis werden Modelle präsentiert, die eine multivariate Quantifizierung erwarteter Unfallhäufigkeiten in Hauptverkehrsstraßennetzen erlauben. Die vorgestellte Methodik bildet eine mögliche Grundlage für eine differenzierte Sicherheitsbewertung verkehrsplanerischer Variantenabschätzungen. / A methodology is developed in order to predict the number of accidents within an urban main road network. The analysis was carried out by surveying the road network of Dresden. The resulting models allow the calculation of individual expectancy values for accidents with and without injury involving different traffic modes. The statistical modelling process is based on generalized linear models (GLM). These were chosen due to their ability to take into account certain non-normal distributions. In the specific case of accident counts, both the Poisson distribution and the negative binomial distribution are more suitable for reproducing the origination process than the normal distribution. Thus they were chosen as underlying distributions for the subsequent regressions. In order to differentiate overlaying influences, the main road network is separated into four basic elements: major intersections, road sections, minor intersections and approaches. Furthermore the major and minor intersections are additionally subdivided into signalised and non-signalised intersections. Separate models are calculated for different accident collectives for the various types of elements. Afterwards several methodologies for calculating aggregated network models are developed and analysed. Apart from traffic-related and infrastructural attributes, environmental parameters are derived taking into account the adjacent building structure as well as the surrounding land-use, and incorporated as explanatory variables within the regression. The environmental variables are derived from statistical analyses including correlation matrices, contingency tables and principal components analyses (PCA). As a result, a set of models is introduced which allows a multivariate calculation of expected accident counts for urban main road networks. The methodology developed can serve as a basis for a differentiated safety assessment of varying scenarios within a traffic planning process.

Ο Μαυροπετρίτης (Falco eleonorae Géné, 1839) είναι ένα μεσαίου μεγέθους μεταναστευτικό γεράκι το οποίο επισκέπτεται τη χώρα μας τους καλοκαιρινούς μήνες για να αναπαραχθεί. Οι αναπαραγωγικές αποικίες εντοπίζονται σε νησιά και ακτές της Μεσογείου, της Μακαρονησίας και της βορειοδυτικής Αφρικής, ενώ τους υπόλοιπους μήνες το είδος απαντά στη Μαδαγασκάρη και γειτονικές περιοχές. Στο παρελθόν έχει πραγματοποιηθεί ένας μεγάλος αριθμός μελετών σχετικά με την περίοδο αναπαραγωγής, ενώ για τον υπόλοιπο κύκλο ζωής του είδους οι γνώσεις μας μέχρι τις αρχές του 21ου αιώνα ήταν περιορισμένες. Στην παρούσα διατριβή μελετώνται τα βασικότερα στάδια του κύκλου ζωής του Μαυροπετρίτη, επικεντρώνοντας στην περίοδο αναπαραγωγής, μετανάστευσης και διαχείμασης ατόμων που αναπαράγονται στην Ελλάδα. Συγκεκριμένα, διερευνάται (α) η αναπαραγωγική επιτυχία του είδους και η επίδραση περιβαλλοντικών παραγόντων στην έκβαση της αναπαραγωγικής επιτυχίας, (β) το πρότυπο κατανομής των αναπαραγωγικών αποικιών στο Αιγαίο και Ιόνιο πέλαγος, (γ) τα κριτήρια που χρησιμοποιούν τα αναπαραγωγικά ζευγάρια κατά την επιλογή θέσης φωλιάσματος σε ακατοίκητες νησίδες του Αιγαίου πελάγους, (δ) η περίοδος μετανάστευσης τεσσάρων γερακιών από μια αποικία του Κεντρικού Αιγαίου και οι παράγοντες που επηρεάζουν το πρότυπο μετανάστευσής τους και, (ε) η περίοδος διαχείμασης και το πρότυπο κατανομής των τεσσάρων γερακιών στην περιοχή διαχείμασης. Η εκπόνηση της παρούσας διατριβής βασίσθηκε σε μεγάλο βαθμό στα πρωτογενή δεδομένα που συλλέχθηκαν στο πλαίσιο του προγράμματος «LIFE - ΦΥΣΗ 2003 Δράσεις για την προστασία του Μαυροπετρίτη (Falco eleonorae) στην Ελλάδα (LIFE 03NAT/GR/000091)», με κύριο ανάδοχο την Ελληνική Ορνιθολογική Εταιρεία (Ε.Ο.Ε.) σε συνεργασία με το Μουσείο Φυσικής Ιστορίας Κρήτης (ΜΦΙΚ), το Υπουργείο Αγροτικής Ανάπτυξης και Τροφίμων και τη Βρετανική Ορνιθολογική Εταιρεία (RSPB) και με χρηματοδότηση της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής και συγχρηματοδότηση του ιδρύματος «Α. Γ.Λεβέντης». Το πρόγραμμα παρακολούθησης της μετανάστευσης των τεσσάρων Μαυροπετριτών πραγματοποιήθηκε στο πλαίσιο του προγράμματος «Μελέτη των πτηνών του ελληνικού θαλάσσιου χώρου» με ανάδοχο την Ελληνική Ορνιθολογική Εταιρεία και με χρηματοδότηση του ιδρύματος «Α. Γ. Λεβέντης». / Eleonora's falcon (Falco eleonorae Géné, 1839) is a medium-sized migratory raptor that visits the Greek islands during the breeding season. Its breeding colonies are distributed on islands and coasts of the Mediterranean Sea, Macaronesia and northwest Africa, while during the rest of the year the species is found in Madagascar and surrounding islets. In previous years most studies focused on the breeding period, while up to the 21st century our knowledge with regards to the rest of its life cycle remained relatively poor. In this thesis i study the main stages of Eleonora's falcon life cycle, focusing on the breeding, migratory and wintering period of individuals that breed in Greece. In particular, i investigate (a) the breeding success of the species and the effect of environmental factors on the outcome of the breeding effort, (b) the distribution pattern of the breeding colonies in the Aegean and Ionean Sea, (c) the criteria the breeding pairs use at the time of nesting site selection in uninhabited islets of the Aegean Sea, (d) the migratory period of four falcons originating from a breeding colony of the Central Aegean Sea and the factors that shape the irmigratory pattern and, (e) the wintering period and the distribution pattern of the four falcons in their wintering grounds. This thesis was based to a great extent on the data collected in the frame of the project "LIFE-Nature 2003 Conservation Measures for Falco eleonorae in Greece (LIFE 03NAT/GR/000091)" undertaken by the Hellenic Ornithological Society (H.O.S.) in collaboration with the Natural History Museum of Crete (NHMC), the Ministry of Rural Development and Food and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), which was funded by the European Commission and cofunded by the A.G. Leventis Foundation. The migration tracking project was funded by the A.G. Leventis Foundation through project "Survey and Conservation of Seabirds in Greece".

This thesis is focused on environmental preferences of wood-decaying fungi and their relationships with forest structure and development. Relationships of fungi to properties of wood and forest stands were studied on the basis of field observations in Central-European mountain spruce forests. Plot-based approach was used to reveal a general pattern in the diversity of fungi within a single forest stand and between different stands. The analysis of stand structure provided a background for plot-based approach. Substrate-based approach was used to study single species preferences and their communities. In addition, the influence of wood properties (including fungi and their rots) on the regeneration of spruce on logs was studied.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:06:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2447.pdf: 2730026 bytes, checksum: 0c7b575bbfeb3fed2fc6c929b9785516 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-03-05 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The objective of this work is to present techniques of regression analysis for longitudinal data when the response variable is binary. Initially, there is a review of generalized linear models, marginal models, transition models, mixed models, and logistic regression methods of estimation, which will be necessary for the development of work. In addition to the methods of estimation, some structures of correlation will be studied in an attempt to capture the intra-individual serial dependence over time. These methods were applied in two situations, one where the response variable is continuous and normal distribution, and another when the response variable has the Bernoulli distribution. It was also sought to explore and present techniques for selection of models and diagnostics for the two cases. Finally, an application of the above methodology will be presented using a set of real data. / O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar técnicas de análise de regressão para dados longitudinais quando a variável resposta é binária. Inicialmente, é feita uma revisão sobre modelos lineares generalizados, modelos marginais, modelos de transição, modelos mistos, regressão logística e métodos de estimação, pois serão necessários para o desenvolvimento do trabalho. Além dos métodos de estimação, algumas estruturas de correlação serão estudadas, na tentativa de captar a dependência serial intra-indivíduo ao longo do tempo. Estes métodos foram aplicados em duas situações; uma quando a variável resposta é contínua, e se assume ter distribuição normal, e a outra quando a variável resposta assume ter distribuição de Bernoulli. Também se procurou pesquisar e apresentar técnicas de seleção de modelos e de diagnósticos para os dois casos. Ao final, uma aplicação com a metodologia pesquisada será apresentada utilizando um conjunto de dados reais.

Diversos estudos têm sido feitos para verificar quais as relações entre a lagarta do cartucho-do-milho, Spodoptera frugiperda, bem como o curuquerê-do-algodoeiro, Alabama argillacea, e potenciais agentes de controle biológico, visto que são importantes pragas de diversas culturas. Pesquisas com parasitoides e predadores de diferentes ordens têm sido desenvolvidas, com esse propósito. A tesourinha Euborellia annulipes apresenta grande potencial, assim como o pentatomídeo Podisus nigrispinus, por serem inimigos naturais desses insetos-praga. O parasitoide Campoletis flavicincta é, também, considerado um potencial agente controlador de S. frugiperda, no campo. Quatro experimentos foram instalados e conduzidos para estudar as relações ecológicas entre as espécies citadas: i) competição entre os predadores por larvas de S. frugiperda; ii) competição entre os predadores por larvas de A. argillacea; iii) competição intraespecífica entre as ninfas dos predadores; iv) teste de preferência por larvas de S. frugiperda previamente parasitadas, ou não, por C. flavicincta. Modelos estatísticos de diferentes tipos foram ajustados aos dados obtidos. Foram utilizados modelos lineares generalizados para dados discretos univariados (contagens e proporções), modelos de análise de sobrevivência para dados de tempo até ocorrência de um determinado evento, modelos aditivos generalizados e modelos multinomiais ordinais para dados de taxas de mortalidade observadas ao longo do tempo. Para verificar a qualidade do ajuste de modelos lineares generalizados, funções que produzem gráficos meio-normais com envelope de simulação foram implementadas no software estatístico gratuito R. Observou-se que as fêmeas de E. annulipes são mais agressivas e a espécie tem vantagem competitiva sobre P. nigrispinus, podendo atuar como predadora intraguilda. Além disso, os predadores têm a capacidade de discriminar entre larvas de S. frugiperda parasitadas ou não por C. flavicincta, sendo que há evidências de que os machos evitam consumir larvas parasitadas. Já as fêmeas não têm preferência e podem consumir o parasitoide, indiretamente, ao predar uma larva parasitada, sendo que isso pode ser um fator estabilizador do sistema. Adicionalmente, a coexistência entre a praga, os predadores e o parasitoide é mais provável quando as taxas de ataque dos predadores são mais altas e a do parasitoide é mais baixa. / Several studies have verified the relations among the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, as well as the cotton leafworm, Alabama argillacea, and potential biological control agents, as they are important pests of several crops. Research with parasitoids and predators of different orders has been developed with this purpose. The ring-legged earwig (Euborellia annulipes) shows great potential, as well as the Neotrpical stink bug (Podisus nigrispinus), as they are natural enemies of these pests. The parasitoid wasp Campoletis flavicincta is also considered a biological control agent of S. frugiperda. Four experiments were set up and conducted to characterize the ecological relations among the described species: i) competition between the predators for S. frugiperda larvae; ii) competition between the predators for A. argillacea larvae; iii) intraspecific competition among the predators\' nymphs; iv) choice tests between S. frugiperda larvae that were previously parasitised by C. flavicincta and larvae that were not. Statistical models of different types were fit to the data. Generalized linear models were used to analyse univariate discrete data (counts and proportions), survival analysis models were used to analyse time-until-event data, generalized additive models and ordered multinomial logistic models were used to analyse mortality rates through time. To assess goodness-of-fit, functions that produce half-normal plots with a simulation envelope were implemented for the open-source software R. It was observed that females of E. annulipes are less aggressive and this species has a competitive advantage over P. nigrispinus, and may act as an intraguild predator. Besides that, the predators are able to distinguish parasitised from non-parasitised S. frugiperda larvae, and there are evidence that show that males tend to avoid feeding on larvae parasitised by C. flavicincta. Females, however, have no prefference and may indirectly feed on the parasitoid when predating a parasitised larva, and this might be a stabilizing factor in this system. In addition, coexistence among the pest, predators and parasitoid is most likely when predation rates are high and parasitism rates are low.

Dentre as possíveis propostas encontradas na literatura estatística para analisar dados oriundos de estudos com observações correlacionadas, estão os modelos condicionais e os modelos marginais. Diversas técnicas têm sido propostas para a análise de diagnóstico nesses modelos. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar algumas das técnicas de diagnóstico disponíveis para os dois tipos de modelos e avaliá-las por meio de estudos de simulação. As técnicas apresentadas também foram aplicadas em um conjunto de dados reais. / Conditional and marginal models are among the possibilities in statistical literature to analyze data from studies with correlated observations. Several techniques have been proposed for diagnostic analysis in these models. The objective of this work is to present some of the diagnostic techniques available for both modeling approaches and to evaluate them by simulation studies. The presented techniques were also applied in a real dataset.

Dizertační práce se zabývá predikcí vysokodimenzionálních dat genových expresí. Množství dostupných genomických dat významně vzrostlo v průběhu posledního desetiletí. Kombinování dat genových expresí s dalšími daty nachází uplatnění v mnoha oblastech. Například v klinickém řízení rakoviny (clinical cancer management) může přispět k přesnějšímu určení prognózy nemocí. Hlavní část této dizertační práce je zaměřena na kombinování dat genových expresí a klinických dat. Používáme logistické regresní modely vytvořené prostřednictvím různých regularizačních technik. Generalizované lineární modely umožňují kombinování modelů s různou strukturou dat. V dizertační práci je ukázáno, že kombinování modelu dat genových expresí a klinických dat může vést ke zpřesnění výsledku predikce oproti vytvoření modelu pouze z dat genových expresí nebo klinických dat. Navrhované postupy přitom nejsou výpočetně náročné.  Testování je provedeno nejprve se simulovanými datovými sadami v různých nastaveních a následně s~reálnými srovnávacími daty. Také se zde zabýváme určením přídavné hodnoty microarray dat. Dizertační práce obsahuje porovnání příznaků vybraných pomocí klasifikátoru genových expresí na pěti různých sadách dat týkajících se rakoviny prsu. Navrhujeme také postup výběru příznaků, který kombinuje data genových expresí a znalosti z genových ontologií.

[ES] La Ley de Prevención de Riesgos Laborales de 8 de noviembre de 1995 (LPRL), en vigor desde el 10 de febrero de 1996, establece en su artículo 5: "tendrá por objeto la promoción de la mejora de las condiciones de trabajo dirigida a elevar el nivel de protección de la seguridad y la salud de los trabajadores en el trabajo." En esta Tesis se ha investigado la evolución de los índices de siniestralidad laboral y su relación con la evolución de diferentes variables explicativas relacionadas con el desarrollo normativo, el mercado de trabajo, la estructura productiva, las condiciones de empleo y las condiciones individuales, entre otras, para el caso de España y en el periodo 1995-2017, que abarca desde la promulgación de la LPRL hasta fechas recientes donde se disponía de los datos históricos necesarios. La investigación se ha centrado en los índices de salud más relevantes según su significado en términos de riesgo y/o sus componentes. El objetivo de la investigación ha sido el encontrar evidencias sobre relaciones causa-efecto entre índices y variables, a partir de las cuales extraer lecciones que facilitarán una mejor planificación de la acción preventiva. Para ello, se han propuesto varios modelos explicativos utilizando diferentes herramientas estadísticas, que han permitido formular de manera explícita y analizar la relación entre la evolución de los indicadores de salud ocupacional y la evolución de las principales variables explicativas. En términos generales puede concluirse que la implantación de dicha ley y normativa que la acompaña ha tenido un impacto positivo en las condiciones de trabajo y en consecuencia sobre el nivel de seguridad y salud de los trabajadores desde entonces y hasta la fecha. Sin embargo, se observan diferentes comportamientos cíclicos en la evolución de los indicadores, tales como los índices de incidencia, frecuencia y gravedad, que pone de manifiesto su dependencia de la naturaleza y comportamiento cíclico de algunas de las variables explicativas más importantes relacionadas con ciclos económicos, mercado de trabajo, estructura productiva, etc. Además, se observa como aspectos tales como la pertenencia a grupos de edad jóvenes o expertos, el nivel de estudios, determinadas categorías profesionales, y algunos sectores particulares tienen efectos significativos sobre los valores alcanzados por los índices de siniestralidad. En cambio, otros, como el trabajo a tiempo parcial o la contratación temporal no manifiestan tener tanta repercusión sobre los indicadores. / [CA] Partint de les dades corresponents als accidents ocorreguts en el període 1995-2017, es La Llei de Prevenció de Riscos Laborals de 8 de novembre de 1995 (*LPRL), en vigor des del 10 de febrer de 1996, estableix en el seu article 5: "tindrà per objecte la promoció de la millora de les condicions de treball dirigida a elevar el nivell de protecció de la seguretat i la salut dels treballadors en el treball." En aquesta Tesi s'ha investigat l'evolució dels índexs de sinistralitat laboral i la seua relació amb l'evolució de diferents variables explicatives relacionades amb el desenvolupament normatiu, el mercat de treball, l'estructura productiva, les condicions d'ocupació i les condicions individuals, entre altres, per al cas d'Espanya i en el període 1995-2017, que abasta des de la promulgació de la LPRL fins a dates recents on es disposava de les dades històriques necessàries. La investigació s'ha centrat en els índexs de salut més rellevants segons el seu significat en termes de risc i/o els seus components. L'objectiu de la investigació ha sigut el trobar evidències sobre relacions causa-efecte entre índexs i variables, a partir de les quals extraure lliçons que facilitaran una millor planificació de l'acció preventiva. Per a això, s'han proposat diversos models explicatius utilitzant diferents eines estadístiques, que han permés formular de manera explícita i analitzar la relació entre l'evolució dels indicadors de salut ocupacional i l'evolució de les principals variables explicatives. En termes generals pot concloure's que la implantació d'aquesta llei i normativa que l'acompanya ha tingut un impacte positiu en les condicions de treball i en conseqüència sobre el nivell de seguretat i salut dels treballadors des de llavors i fins hui. No obstant això, s'observen diferents comportaments cíclics en l'evolució dels indicadors, com ara els índexs d'incidència, freqüència i gravetat, que posa de manifest la seua dependència de la naturalesa i comportament cíclic d'algunes de les variables explicatives més importants relacionades amb cicles econòmics, mercat de treball, estructura productiva, etc. A més, s'observa com a aspectes com ara la pertinença a grups d'edat joves o experts, el nivell d'estudis, determinades categories professionals, i alguns sectors particulars tenen efectes significatius sobre els valors aconseguits pels índexs de sinistralitat. En canvi, uns altres, com el treball a temps parcial o la contractació temporal no manifesten tindre tanta repercussió sobre els indicadors. / [EN] The Occupational Risk Prevention Act of November 8, 1995 (ORPA), in force since February 10, 1996, establishes in its article 5: "will have as its objective the promotion of the improvement of working conditions aimed at raise the level of protection of the safety and health of workers at work. " This thesis has investigated the evolution of the occupational accident rates and their relationship with the evolution of different explanatory variables related to regulatory development, the labor market, the productive structure, employment conditions and individual conditions, among others, in the case of Spain and in the period 1995-2017, which ranges from the enactment of the LPRL to recent dates where the necessary historical data was available. Research has focused on the most relevant health indices according to their meaning in terms of risk and / or their components. The objective of the research has been to find evidence on cause-effect relationships between indices and variables, from which to extract lessons that will facilitate better planning of preventive action. To this end, several explanatory models have been proposed using different statistical tools, which have made it possible to explicitly formulate and analyze the relationship between the evolution of occupational health indicators and the evolution of the main explanatory variables. In general terms, it can be concluded that the implementation of said law and accompanying regulations has had a positive impact on working conditions and consequently on the level of health and safety of workers since then and to date. However, different cyclical behaviors are observed in the evolution of the indicators, such as incidence, frequency and severity indices, which highlights their dependence on the nature and cyclical behavior of some of the most important explanatory variables related to economic cycles, labor market, productive structure, etc. Furthermore, aspects such as belonging to young age groups or experts, educational level, certain professional categories, and some particular sectors are observed as having significant effects on the values reached by the accident rates. On the other hand, others, such as part-time work or temporary hiring, do not claim to have such an impact on the indicators. / Gallego Blasco, VS. (2021). Análisis de la incidencia de factores causales en la evolución de la siniestralidad laboral en España [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/168774 / TESIS

In der Arbeit wird eine Methodik einer zusammenhängenden Analyse und modellhaften Beschreibung der Verkehrssicherheit in städtischen Hauptstraßennetzen am Beispiel der Stadt Dresden entwickelt. Die dabei gewonnenen Modelle dienen der Abschätzung von Erwartungswerten von Unfallhäufigkeiten mit und ohne Personenschaden unter Berücksichtigung der Verkehrsbeteiligungsart. Die Grundlage bilden multivariate Regressionsmodelle auf Basis verallgemeinerter linearer Modelle (GLM). Die Verwendung verallgemeinerter Regressionsmodelle erlaubt eine Berücksichtigung von Verteilungen, die besser geeignet sind, den Unfallentstehungsprozess wiederzugeben, als die häufig verwendete Normalverteilung. Im konkreten Fall werden hierzu die Poisson-Verteilung sowie die negative Binomialverteilung verwendet. Um Effekte im Hauptverkehrsstraßennetz möglichst trennscharf abbilden zu können, werden vier grundsätzliche Netzelemente differenziert und das Netz entsprechend zerlegt. Unterschieden werden neben Streckenabschnitten und Hauptverkehrsknotenpunkten auch Annäherungsbereiche und Anschlussknotenpunkte. Die Kollektive der Knotenpunkte werden ferner in signalisierte und nicht-signalisierte unterteilt. Es werden zunächst Modelle unterschiedlicher Unfallkollektive getrennt für alle Kollektive der vier Netzelemente berechnet. Anschließend werden verschiedene Vorgehensweisen für eine Zusammenfassung zu Netzmodellen entwickelt. Neben der Verwendung verkehrstechnischer und infrastruktureller Größen als erklärende Variable werden in der Arbeit auch Kenngrößen zur Beschreibung der Umfeldnutzung ermittelt und im Rahmen der Regression einbezogen. Die Quantifizierung der Umfeldnutzung erfolgt mit Hilfe von Korrelations-, Kontingenz- und von Hauptkomponentenanalysen (PCA). Im Ergebnis werden Modelle präsentiert, die eine multivariate Quantifizierung erwarteter Unfallhäufigkeiten in Hauptverkehrsstraßennetzen erlauben. Die vorgestellte Methodik bildet eine mögliche Grundlage für eine differenzierte Sicherheitsbewertung verkehrsplanerischer Variantenabschätzungen. / A methodology is developed in order to predict the number of accidents within an urban main road network. The analysis was carried out by surveying the road network of Dresden. The resulting models allow the calculation of individual expectancy values for accidents with and without injury involving different traffic modes. The statistical modelling process is based on generalized linear models (GLM). These were chosen due to their ability to take into account certain non-normal distributions. In the specific case of accident counts, both the Poisson distribution and the negative binomial distribution are more suitable for reproducing the origination process than the normal distribution. Thus they were chosen as underlying distributions for the subsequent regressions. In order to differentiate overlaying influences, the main road network is separated into four basic elements: major intersections, road sections, minor intersections and approaches. Furthermore the major and minor intersections are additionally subdivided into signalised and non-signalised intersections. Separate models are calculated for different accident collectives for the various types of elements. Afterwards several methodologies for calculating aggregated network models are developed and analysed. Apart from traffic-related and infrastructural attributes, environmental parameters are derived taking into account the adjacent building structure as well as the surrounding land-use, and incorporated as explanatory variables within the regression. The environmental variables are derived from statistical analyses including correlation matrices, contingency tables and principal components analyses (PCA). As a result, a set of models is introduced which allows a multivariate calculation of expected accident counts for urban main road networks. The methodology developed can serve as a basis for a differentiated safety assessment of varying scenarios within a traffic planning process.

Management and conservation of populations of animals requires information on where they are, why they are there, and where else they could be. These objectives are typically approached by collecting data on the animals’ use of space, relating these to prevailing environmental conditions and employing these relations to predict usage at other geographical regions. Technical advances in wildlife telemetry have accomplished manifold increases in the amount and quality of available data, creating the need for a statistical framework that can use them to make population-level inferences for habitat preference and space-use. This has been slow-in-coming because wildlife telemetry data are, by definition, spatio-temporally autocorrelated, unbalanced, presence-only observations of behaviorally complex animals, responding to a multitude of cross-correlated environmental variables. I review the evolution of techniques for the analysis of space-use and habitat preference, from simple hypothesis tests to modern modeling techniques and outline the essential features of a framework that emerges naturally from these foundations. Within this framework, I discuss eight challenges, inherent in the spatial analysis of telemetry data and, for each, I propose solutions that can work in tandem. Specifically, I propose a logistic, mixed-effects approach that uses generalized additive transformations of the environmental covariates and is fitted to a response data-set comprising the telemetry and simulated observations, under a case-control design. I apply this framework to non-trivial case-studies using data from satellite-tagged grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) foraging off the east and west coast of Scotland, and northern gannets (Morus Bassanus) from Bass Rock. I find that sea bottom depth and sediment type explain little of the variation in gannet usage, but grey seals from different regions strongly prefer coarse sediment types, the ideal burrowing habitat of sandeels, their preferred prey. The results also suggest that prey aggregation within the water column might be as important as horizontal heterogeneity. More importantly, I conclude that, despite the complex behavior of the study species, flexible empirical models can capture the environmental relationships that shape population distributions.