Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:00:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Danilo Soares Monte-Mor.pdf: 964390 bytes, checksum: 749870f88ee1c9c692cf782e397379ec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-12-17 / Cada vez mais tem surgido no mercado de investimento fundos de retorno absoluto (Hedge Funds) que têm como objetivo principal melhorar seus desempenhos através de estratégias de arbitragem, como é o caso das estratégias long-short. É o comportamento desproporcional e até mesmo antagônico dos preços dos ativos que permite aos players estruturar estratégias para gerar retornos adicionais, superiores aos custos de oportunidade e independentes ao movimento do mercado. Neste trabalho foi utilizada a Teoria de Valores Extremos (TVE), um importante ramo da probabilidade, para que fossem modeladas as séries da relação direta entre preços de dois pares de ativos. Os quantis obtidos a partir de tal modelagem, juntamente com os quantis fornecidos pela normal, foram superpostos aos dados para períodos subsequentes ao período analisado. A partir da comparação desses dados foi criada uma nova estratégia quantitativa long-short de arbitragem, a qual denominamos GEV Long-Short Strategy / Increasingly has appeared on the market of investment Absolute Return Funds (Hedge Funds), which have the main objective to improve their performance through arbitrage strategies, as long-short strategies. It is the disproportionate evolution and even antagonistic of active prices that allows the players to structure strategies to generate additional returns, higher than the opportunity costs and independent of the movement of the market. In this work we used Extreme Value Theory (EVT), an important segment of probability, to model the series of direct relationship between prices of two pairs of assets. The quantiles obtained from such modeling and the quantile provided by normal were superimposed on data for periods subsequent to the period analyzed. From the comparison of such data we created a new quantitative long-short arbitrage strategy, called GEV Long-Short Strategy

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:00:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Danilo Soares Monte-Mor.pdf: 964390 bytes, checksum: 749870f88ee1c9c692cf782e397379ec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-12-17 / Increasingly has appeared on the market of investment Absolute Return Funds (Hedge Funds), which have the main objective to improve their performance through arbitrage strategies, as long-short strategies. It is the disproportionate evolution and even antagonistic of active prices that allows the players to structure strategies to generate additional returns, higher than the opportunity costs and independent of the movement of the market. In this work we used Extreme Value Theory (EVT), an important segment of probability, to model the series of direct relationship between prices of two pairs of assets. The quantiles obtained from such modeling and the quantile provided by normal were superimposed on data for periods subsequent to the period analyzed. From the comparison of such data we created a new quantitative long-short arbitrage strategy, called GEV Long-Short Strategy / Cada vez mais tem surgido no mercado de investimento fundos de retorno absoluto (Hedge Funds) que têm como objetivo principal melhorar seus desempenhos através de estratégias de arbitragem, como é o caso das estratégias long-short. É o comportamento desproporcional e até mesmo antagônico dos preços dos ativos que permite aos players estruturar estratégias para gerar retornos adicionais, superiores aos custos de oportunidade e independentes ao movimento do mercado. Neste trabalho foi utilizada a Teoria de Valores Extremos (TVE), um importante ramo da probabilidade, para que fossem modeladas as séries da relação direta entre preços de dois pares de ativos. Os quantis obtidos a partir de tal modelagem, juntamente com os quantis fornecidos pela normal, foram superpostos aos dados para períodos subsequentes ao período analisado. A partir da comparação desses dados foi criada uma nova estratégia quantitativa long-short de arbitragem, a qual denominamos GEV Long-Short Strategy

Šiame darbe visų pirma pateikiama alternatyvaus investavimo fondų apžvalga, vėliau pereinama prie arbitražo strategijų nagrinėjimo. Norint išnaudoti atsiradusį kainų skirtumą tarp dviejų vertybinių popierių su vienodais ateities pinigų srautais reikia pigesnį iš jų pirkti, o brangesnį skolintis ir parduoti. Skirtumui sumažėjus ar išnykus gaunamas pelnas. Skolinantis realiose rinkose beveik visada reikalaujama užstato. Dėl šios priežasties, kainų skirtumui netikėtai padidėjus, patiriamas nuostolis. Arbitražas tampa rizikinga investicija, reikalaujančia pradinio kapitalo. Sukūrėme patį paprasčiausią modelį, parodantį užstato reikalavimo įtaką pelnui iš arbitražo, taip pat randame optimalią strategiją, maksimizuojančią šį pelną. Parodome, kad rinkoje gali egzistuoti arbitražo galimybės, kurios nebus išnaudojamos dėl galimo kainų skirtumo padidėjimo. / This paper, after giving a short introduction to hedge fund industry, studies arbitrage strategies. We consider two assets with identical cash flows. Initially, there is a gap between their prices. Arbitrageur, willing to profit from the mispricing, buys cheaper of the two assets and sells the more expensive one short. If the price difference converges to zero, he makes profit. Arbitrage position can generate losses if the spread widens before converging. Short selling is almost always done with a collateral requirement. For this reason, arbitrage position can generate losses if the spread widens before converging. Arbitrage becomes a risky investment with an initial wealth requirement. We created a simple model, showing how collateral requirement affects profit from an arbitrage opportunity. We also found the optimal strategy to maximize this profit. We showed that arbitrage opportunities can exist in a market; however, they might not be exploitable due to unexpected widening of spreads.

The aim of the thesis is to analyse the non-bank regulatory framework with particular attention devoted to hedge funds and private equity funds. The thesis describes functioning of the funds, discusses their performance during the global financial crisis of 2007-present and, predominantly, describes and analyses the EU and U.S. regulatory reforms with respect to these institutions which have arisen as a response to the crisis. Based on the analysis of the measures incorporated in these reforms, the thesis outlines its own proposal of an alternative investment fund regulatory framework which, if applied, would lead to a more efficient functioning of the alternative investment industry than what is likely to be the outcome of the already adopted reforms. The nature of the thesis is institutional; its methodology is characterized by a broad literature survey. Hedge funds and private equity funds are considered both in pre-crisis context as well as in circumstances that have been brought about by the crisis. Several hypotheses concerning systemic risk and the approach of the regulatory reforms to it are assessed. Mostly qualitative analysis is employed to evaluate the hypotheses.

This diploma thesis deals with hedge funds' strategies' analysis. First part is about an introduction into collective investment schemes, shares funds and investment funds. The reader can find the pros and cons of collective investment schemes in the next part. The second section focuses on investment approaches of four hedge fund strategies: global macro, directional, event-driven and relative value, whereby the strategies' classification corresponds with the most common databases of financial providers. They are divided into subcategories and each strategy is characterized by its principle. Special attention is paid to a specific kind of a hedge fund, the so called Fund of Funds. The strategies' rates of return in different market conditions are compared in the conclusion.

Hedge fund activism announcements are associated with positive market reactions, and they introduce information asymmetry between insiders and outside investors. Target firm insiders have superior information about the campaign and play an important role in the campaign negotiation. This study examines insiders’ behavior as information asymmetry rises following the campaign announcement. Insiders increase trading in their own firms in response to the campaign announcement. These post-announcement insider trades have additional return predictability than insider trades in other times. Post-announcement insider buys predict higher probabilities of achieving successful campaign outcomes including management turnovers, increases in payout, and corporate restructurings, and higher value of these outcomes. I also find evidence that insiders use campaign resistance and trading interactively to achieve higher wealth gain.

In the first essay, I create a hedge fund informed trading measure (ITM) that separates information related trades from liquidity driven trades. The results indicate that ITM predicts future stock returns at the trade level, thus is associated with information. By aggregating the most informed trades at the stock level, I find that stocks heavily purchased by informed hedge funds earn a significant alpha. The results indicate that the ITM performs better than some previously documented measures and is robust to two different versions of the measure. The second essay exploits the expiring nature of hedge fund lockups to create a new, within-fund proxy of funding liquidity risk. When funds have lower funding liquidity risk, risk-adjusted performance improves and exposure to tail risk increases. We use fund fixed-effect, a placebo approach, and a regression discontinuity design to establish a link between funding liquidity risk and the ability of funds to capitalize on risky mispricing. The third essay explores hedge fund managers ability to identify and trade on stock mispricing opportunity. We refer to the amount of capital that are is locked up and refrained from redemption as the stable capital, and study how it affects stock mispricing. We find that when funds have more lockup capital, they are more likely to take mispricing risks. Taking all funds together, more stable capital in the industry is driving the reduction or even correction of market-wide stock mispricing. Underpriced stocks benefit more than overpriced stock from hedge funds stable capital.

Credit derivatives are among the most criticized financial instruments in the current credit crises. Given their short history, finance professionals are still researching to discover effective ways to reduce the mark-to-market (MTM) volatility in credit derivatives, especially in turbulent market conditions. Many credit portfolios have been struggling to find out appropriate tools and techniques to help them navigate the current credit crises and hedge mark-to-market volatility in their portfolios. In this study we provide a tool kit to help reduce the pricing fluctuations in structured credit portfolios utilizing data analysis and statistical methods. In Chapter One we provide a snapshot of credit derivatives market by summarizing different types of credit derivatives; including single-name credit default swaps (CDS), market credit indices, bespoke portfolios, market index tranches, and bespoke tranches (synthetic CDOs). In Chapter Two we illustrate a method to calculate a stable hedge ratio (beta) by combining industry practices and statistical techniques. Choosing an appropriate hedge ratio is critical for funds that desire to hedge mark-to-market volatility. Many credit portfolios suffered 40%-80% market value losses in 2008 and 2009 due to the mark-to-market volatility in their long positions. In this chapter we introduce ten different betas in order to hedge a long bespoke portfolio by liquid market indices. We measure the effectives of these betas by two measures: Stability and mark-to-market volatility reduction. Among all betas we present, we deduct that the following betas are appropriate to be used as hedge ratios: Implied Beta, Quarterly Regression Beta on Spread Levels, Yearly Regression Betas on Spread Levels, Up Beta, and Down Beta. In Chapter Three we analyze the risk factors that impact the MTM volatility in CDS tranches; namely Spread Risk, Correlation Risk, Dispersion Risk, and Curve Risk. We focus our analysis in explaining the risks in the equity tranche as this is the riskiest tranche in the capital structure. We show that all four risks introduced are critical in explaining MTM volatility in equity tranches. We also perform multiple regression analysis to show the correlations between different risk factors. We show that, when combined, spread, correlation, and dispersion risks are the most important risk factors in analyzing MTM fluctuations in equity tranche. Curve risk can be used as an add-on risk to further explain local instances. After understanding various risk factors that impact the MTM changes in equity tranche, we put this knowledge to work to analyze two instances in 2008 in which we experienced significant spread widening in equity tranche. Both examples show that a good understanding of the risks that drive MTM changes in CDS tranches is critical in making informed trading decisions. In Chapter Four we focus on two topics: Portfolio Stratification and Index Selection. While portfolio stratification helps us better understand the composition of a portfolio, index selection shows us which indices are more suitable in hedging long bespoke positions. In stratifying a portfolio we define Class-A as the widest credits, Class-B as the middle tier, and Class-C as the tightest credits in a credit portfolio. By portfolio stratification we show that Class-A has significant impact on the overall portfolio. We use five different risk measures to analyze different properties of the three classes we introduce. The risk measures are Sum of Spreads (SOS), Sigma/Mu, Basis Point Volatility (BPVOL), Skewness, and Kurtosis. For all risk measures we show that there is high correlation between Class-A and the whole portfolio. We also show that it is critical to monitor the risks in Class-A to better understand the spread moves in the overall portfolio. In the second part of Chapter Four, we perform analysis to find out which credit index should be used in hedging a long bespoke portfolio. We compare four credit indices for their ability to track the bespoke portfolio on spread levels and on spread changes. Analysis show that CDX.HY and CDX IG indices fits the best to hedge our sample bespoke portfolio in terms of spread levels and spread changes, respectively. Finally, we perform multiple regression analysis using backward selection, forward selection, and stepwise regression methods to find out if we should use multiple indices in our hedging practices. Multiple regression analysis show that CDX.HY and CDX.IG are the best candidates to hedge the sample bespoke portfolio we introduced.

Background Out of the different fund categories hedge funds have had the highest development in Sweden since 1994. Swedish investors’ interest in hedge funds doubled from 2005 to 2006. Hedge funds are said to be an investment with a low risk and not being dependent upon business cycle movements. Historically there have been high initial investments, most often over 100 000 SEK, required to invest in hedge funds. This has started to shift towards lower initial investments. This is a reason why hedge funds start to become interesting to private investors and not only to institutional, and wealthy private investors. Purpose The purpose of this thesis is to explore what different investment strategies and sub strategies that are used within Swedish hedge funds. Also specific risks and risk measurements, depending on investment strategy, will be investigated and compared. Method In order to meet the purpose of this thesis a qualitative approach has been used. A questionnaire, with both closed and open-end questions, was sent to 13 hedge fund managers operating in the Swedish hedge fund market. Afterwards, four semi-structured interviews were conducted. Two of the interviewees are hedge fund managers who also answered the questionnaire. The others were with a person who is a hedge fund analyst and a person working at the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (SFSA). Conclusion Out of the five different investment strategies investigated the two most widely used in Swedish hedge funds are funds of hedge funds and equity hedge. The sub strategies that are used within the Swedish hedge fund market are those with a focus on low risk. Within Swedish hedge funds there are some specific risks and risk measurements that are useful. Sharpe ratio is best used to compare similar funds. Standard deviation is useful to evaluate each specific hedge fund. How much leverage capital that can be used is decided by SFSA. Yet, the risks depend on the hedge fund manager rather than the investment strategy used. This, due to the fact that the hedge fund managers have an own interest in the hedge fund.

Investment in hedge funds is a relatively new phenomenon for investors compared with other forms of savings. In recent years, the interest has increased among investors in investing their money in hedge funds, given the protection against declines in the market they are aiming for. Their main purpose is to generate a high return at a low risk regardless of market trends. This they can achieve by having fewer restrictions that offer more flexible investment strategies and freer investment opportunities. The purpose of this paper is to identify how the selected hedge fund strategies have performed during the recent economic downturn. We also want to clarify the claim that hedge funds exhibit a positive absolute return regardless of what the market is performing. In order to answer the purpose of the essay and its problems, we have used a quantitative method with a deductive approach in the processing of data. Our observations are thus linked to the theory in order to examine the relationships. We have analyzed our results using various financial and statistical measures. A comparison has been made between the different strategies' performance against each other and against a market index during a five year period, which includes the recent financial crisis in 2008. We have also studied the hedge funds in terms of returns, various risk measures, performance measures, correlation and regression. The statistical measurements have been used to comprehensively examine the study's credibility. We came to the conclusion that all hedge funds are not able to generate positive absolute returns, but it is of importance which strategy to investigate. Our examination showed that the market depending hedge funds had a strong correlation with the market. Thus, they failed to perform as well as the other strategies, which had a minor connection to the market during the period of study. / Placering i hedgefonder är ett relativt nytt fenomen för investerare i jämförelse med andra sparformer. Under de senaste åren har intresset bland investerare ökat i att placera sina pengar i hedgefonder, med tanke på det skydd mot nedgångar på marknaden som de strävar efter. Deras huvudsakliga syfte är att till en låg risk generera en hög avkastning oberoende av marknadsutvecklingen. Detta kan de uppnå genom att de har färre restriktioner som erbjuder mer flexibla investeringsstrategier och friare placeringsmöjligheter. Denna undersökning syftar till att kartlägga prestationen av utvalda hedgefondstrategier under den senaste konjunkturnedgången. Vi vill även klargöra påståendet att hedgefonder uppvisar en positiv absolut avkastning oavsett vad marknaden presterar. För att uppsatsens syfte och frågeställningar skall kunna besvaras har vi använt oss utav en kvantitativ metod med en deduktiv ansats vid bearbetningen av data. Våra observationer har därmed kopplats till teorin för att undersöka sambanden. Vi har analyserat våra resultat med hjälp av olika finansiella och statistiska mått. En jämförelse har gjorts mellan de olika strategiernas prestation mot varandra och mot ett marknadsindex över en femårsperiod, som innefattar den senaste finanskrisen år 2008. Vi har även studerat hedgefonderna i form av avkastning, olika riskmått, prestationsmått, korrelation och regression. De statistiska måtten har använts för att på ett övergripande sätt kunna granska studiens trovärdighet. Slutsatsen vi kom fram till är att alla hedgefonder inte lyckas generera en positiv absolut avkastning utan det är av betydelse vilken strategi som man undersöker. Vår undersökning visade att de marknadsberoende hedgefonderna hade ett starkt samband med marknaden. Således lyckades de inte prestera lika bra under den studerade tidsperioden som de övriga strategierna som hade en mindre koppling till marknadsutvecklingen.