Neste estudo é feita uma apresentação de alguns aspectos da obra de Herbert A. Simon que foram julgados de particular importância para a economia. A teoria comportamental do autor é o eixo em torno do qual estes aspectos resultaram girar. Esta teoria por sua vez foi aqui dividida em dois temas: o da racionalidade e o da organização. Estes temas são duas partes essenciais da teoria e devem caminhar sempre juntos no sentido de que, respectivamente, tratam da estrutura da teoria e do contexto ao qual ela se aplica. No que diz respeito ao tema da racionalidade, são tratados aqui os argumentos de Simon relativos às restrições ao exercício da racionalidade pelos agentes associadas às suas capacidades cognitivas. Em particular, Simon argumenta que a hipótese de onisciência, implicada pelas hipóteses de racionalidade da teoria econômica neoclássica, gera problemas para a teoria, tanto em sua faceta normativa quanto na positiva. São também apresentados os conceitos de racionalidade restrita e de racionalidade procedimental. Este último foi desenvolvido por Simon a partir do primeiro, tendo em vista principalmente as dificuldades da teoria econômica de lidar com situações de incerteza. Na medida em que as restrições à racionalidade são admitidas pela teoria, o comportamento passa a depender fortemente tanto do contexto em que ocorre quanto das características psicológicas (cognitivas) do agente. Grande parte do trabalho de Simon em economia girou em torno do conceito de organização. De fato, organizações constituem um contexto predominante do comportamento econômico, tanto mais quanto grandes organizações têm dominado o cenário nas últimas décadas. Neste sentido, é questionada também a predominância do conceito de mercado sobre o de organização na teoria. Esta dependência que o comportamento econômico tem do contexto leva Simon a argumentar em favor de uma aproximação entre economia e empiria, em particular do estudo empírico de como o comportamento se dá na prática – ou seja, onde empiria não deve ser tomada como sinônimo de econometria. Uma contextualização histórica do trabalho de Simon também foi realizada. Foram explorados aí alguns temas. Primeiro, foi conceituado o “regime da Segunda Guerra Mundial" surgido em torno da confluência entre as empreitadas científica e militar durante a Segunda Guerra. Em segundo lugar, a importância deste regime para a carreira de Simon foi discutida, em particular a disponibilidade do computador, a partir de meados da década de 1950, para sua pesquisa. Em terceiro lugar, foi identificada e descrita como importante manifestação desse regime a “pesquisa operacional" e foram traçadas algumas de suas implicações para a economia em particular e, de maneira mais vaga, para as ciências sociais em geral. / This study presents some aspects of Herbert A. Simon’s work that were thought to have particular importance to economics. The author’s behavioral theory is the axis around which these aspects orbit. This theory, in turn, was divided here into two themes: rationality and organization. Both of them are essential parts of the theory and always work hand in hand in the sense that, respectively, they are the structure of the theory and the context to which it applies. Concerning rationality, Simon’s arguments about the constraints to the exercise of rationality related to the agents’ cognitive limitations are presented. In particular, he argues that the hypothesis of omniscience, implied by the neoclassical economic theory hypothesis of rationality, causes trouble to the theory, in either its normative or positive side. The concepts of bounded rationality and procedural rationality are also presented. The latter was developed by Simon based on the former in an attempt to circumvent the difficulties of the economic theory to deal properly with uncertainty. When the bounds to rationality are admitted by the theory, behavior then depends strongly on the context in which it occurs and on the agent’s psychological (cognitive) characteristics. A major part of Simon’s work in economics dealt with the concept of organization. Indeed, organizations constitute a predominant context to economic behavior, especially when we consider the role large organizations have been playing in the last decades. Proceeding in that line of thought, the preponderance in economics of the concept of market over the concept of organization is questioned. The aforementioned dependency of behavior to the context leads Simon to argue in favor of an approximation of economics and empiric work, especially concerning how behavior is to be found in practice – or else, where empiric work is not to be taken as synonym for econometrics. Simon’s work was historically contextualized and some themes were explored as related to this context. First, the “World War II regime", emerging out of a confluence of the military and scientific enterprises in the war, was conceptualized. Second, the importance of this regime to Simon’s career was stressed, and particularly important was the availability of the computer for his research from the mid-fifties on. Third, an important manifestation of this regime, “operations research", was identified and described. Some of its implications for economics in particular and, in a vaguer manner, for the social sciences in general were also traced.

Neste estudo é feita uma apresentação de alguns aspectos da obra de Herbert A. Simon que foram julgados de particular importância para a economia. A teoria comportamental do autor é o eixo em torno do qual estes aspectos resultaram girar. Esta teoria por sua vez foi aqui dividida em dois temas: o da racionalidade e o da organização. Estes temas são duas partes essenciais da teoria e devem caminhar sempre juntos no sentido de que, respectivamente, tratam da estrutura da teoria e do contexto ao qual ela se aplica. No que diz respeito ao tema da racionalidade, são tratados aqui os argumentos de Simon relativos às restrições ao exercício da racionalidade pelos agentes associadas às suas capacidades cognitivas. Em particular, Simon argumenta que a hipótese de onisciência, implicada pelas hipóteses de racionalidade da teoria econômica neoclássica, gera problemas para a teoria, tanto em sua faceta normativa quanto na positiva. São também apresentados os conceitos de racionalidade restrita e de racionalidade procedimental. Este último foi desenvolvido por Simon a partir do primeiro, tendo em vista principalmente as dificuldades da teoria econômica de lidar com situações de incerteza. Na medida em que as restrições à racionalidade são admitidas pela teoria, o comportamento passa a depender fortemente tanto do contexto em que ocorre quanto das características psicológicas (cognitivas) do agente. Grande parte do trabalho de Simon em economia girou em torno do conceito de organização. De fato, organizações constituem um contexto predominante do comportamento econômico, tanto mais quanto grandes organizações têm dominado o cenário nas últimas décadas. Neste sentido, é questionada também a predominância do conceito de mercado sobre o de organização na teoria. Esta dependência que o comportamento econômico tem do contexto leva Simon a argumentar em favor de uma aproximação entre economia e empiria, em particular do estudo empírico de como o comportamento se dá na prática – ou seja, onde empiria não deve ser tomada como sinônimo de econometria. Uma contextualização histórica do trabalho de Simon também foi realizada. Foram explorados aí alguns temas. Primeiro, foi conceituado o “regime da Segunda Guerra Mundial” surgido em torno da confluência entre as empreitadas científica e militar durante a Segunda Guerra. Em segundo lugar, a importância deste regime para a carreira de Simon foi discutida, em particular a disponibilidade do computador, a partir de meados da década de 1950, para sua pesquisa. Em terceiro lugar, foi identificada e descrita como importante manifestação desse regime a “pesquisa operacional” e foram traçadas algumas de suas implicações para a economia em particular e, de maneira mais vaga, para as ciências sociais em geral. / This study presents some aspects of Herbert A. Simon’s work that were thought to have particular importance to economics. The author’s behavioral theory is the axis around which these aspects orbit. This theory, in turn, was divided here into two themes: rationality and organization. Both of them are essential parts of the theory and always work hand in hand in the sense that, respectively, they are the structure of the theory and the context to which it applies. Concerning rationality, Simon’s arguments about the constraints to the exercise of rationality related to the agents’ cognitive limitations are presented. In particular, he argues that the hypothesis of omniscience, implied by the neoclassical economic theory hypothesis of rationality, causes trouble to the theory, in either its normative or positive side. The concepts of bounded rationality and procedural rationality are also presented. The latter was developed by Simon based on the former in an attempt to circumvent the difficulties of the economic theory to deal properly with uncertainty. When the bounds to rationality are admitted by the theory, behavior then depends strongly on the context in which it occurs and on the agent’s psychological (cognitive) characteristics. A major part of Simon’s work in economics dealt with the concept of organization. Indeed, organizations constitute a predominant context to economic behavior, especially when we consider the role large organizations have been playing in the last decades. Proceeding in that line of thought, the preponderance in economics of the concept of market over the concept of organization is questioned. The aforementioned dependency of behavior to the context leads Simon to argue in favor of an approximation of economics and empiric work, especially concerning how behavior is to be found in practice – or else, where empiric work is not to be taken as synonym for econometrics. Simon’s work was historically contextualized and some themes were explored as related to this context. First, the “World War II regime”, emerging out of a confluence of the military and scientific enterprises in the war, was conceptualized. Second, the importance of this regime to Simon’s career was stressed, and particularly important was the availability of the computer for his research from the mid-fifties on. Third, an important manifestation of this regime, “operations research”, was identified and described. Some of its implications for economics in particular and, in a vaguer manner, for the social sciences in general were also traced.

Entre avril et juin 2008, le prix des commodités (blé, maïs, riz) a atteint un niveau impressionnant, mais pas exceptionnel. Les populations de 48 pays ont été affectées par une sévère sous-alimentation. La plupart d’entre eux avait déjà été affaiblie par des conflits et des catastrophes naturelles inhabituelles et dramatiques. Ces facteurs ont souvent interagi pour aggraver la situation. Pourtant, si la crise de 2007-2008 a été un «problème extraordinaire», c’est aussi parce que la connaissance scientifique «normale» a échoué face à la complexité de la «poly-crises» alimentaire (Morin, 2011). En réponse, nous avons conçu un cadre épistémologique, méthodologique, et technique, à partir de deux approches face à la complexité, celles de Hayek (1899-1992) et de Simon (1916-2001), avec un objectif, satisfaire au critère de cumulativité, un reproche traditionnellement adressé à ce type d’approche. Ce travail a produit deux enseignements. Premièrement, les fondements épistémologiques de la production de la connaissance en économie doivent être révisés en environnement complexe et incertain: 1) du certain/de l’objectif vers l’incertain/le subjectif; 2) de la prédiction exacte vers la conception; 3) de la causalité linéaire inappropriée, ou pire, menaçant la liberté individuelle, vers une causalité complexe. Deuxièmement, dans le processus d’adaptation, le rôle de la production et du partage de la connaissance «tacite» est central. Pour cette raison, le problème économique n’est plus un problème d’allocation des ressources. Il est de savoir comment des êtres humains aux capacités cognitives «limitées» computent et socialisent (Nonaka et alii, 1994, 2001) la connaissance et l’information disponibles, mais dispersées, pour la convertir en heuristiques ou patterns favorisant l’adaptation. Deux autres hypothèses les renforcent : 1) les dynamiques du changement s’enracinent «dans la pensée et la créativité des gens impliqués dans des situations complexes et dans leur capacité à restructurer leurs propres modèles d’interactions», (Ostrom, 2011) ; 2) l’altruisme réciproque (Simon, 1992, 1993) est un comportement rationnel qui peut être plus efficient dans les interactions sociales en environnement complexe que le comportement maximisateur ou égoïste. Ces résultats ont été synthétisés dans une interface que nous avons créée et qui a pris la forme d’une boucle de la connaissance à deux allèles, une pour la connaissance générique, l’autre, pour la tacite, qui, par récursion, produisent une méta-connaissance. Cette interface est à la fois ouverte et fermée et reflète ainsi la position défendue par Hayek et Simon pour qui la science économique est une «science frontière». Une part de la recherche est consacrée à la création d’outils, par exemple à un indicateur de perception de la contribution des facteurs au déclenchement et/ou à l’aggravation de la crise, à partir : 1) des allocutions des 138 Chefs d’État et de Gouvernement présents à la Conférence de Haut Niveau sur la Sécurité alimentaire mondiale (3-5 juin 2008) ; 2) des analyses des économistes, 3) des témoignages des gens qui ont subi la sous-nutrition ou la hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires (database IRIN). Nous proposons également une typologie actualisée des policy-mix mis en œuvre par 18 pays divisés en 3 groupes : des pays en développement, pour la plupart importateurs nets, sévèrement touchés par la crise et qui ont connu des «émeutes de la faim» (Égypte, Tunisie, Cameroun, Côte d’Ivoire, Sénégal, Mauritanie, Haïti, Bangladesh) ; des pays Membres du groupe de Cairns ayant connu soit des «émeutes de la faim», soit des désordres sociaux (Indonésie, Philippines, Thaïlande, Afrique du Sud) ; enfin, des pays ayant adopté des restrictions et/ou prohibitions aux exportations (Chine, Inde, Indonésie, Égypte, Cambodge, Ukraine, Vietnam) [...]. / Over the April-June 2008 period, prices of the commodities such as wheat, maize, rice and vegetable oils, reached impressive yet not exceptional peaks. By contrast, the populations of 48 countries were stricken by severe under nutrition. Most of them had already been weakened not only by conflicts, social disorders, dramatic and unusual climatic and natural disasters, but also by outbreaks, epizooties, and population displacements. In some cases, all these factors together played a significant role in the worsening situation. However, another important reason could be advanced to explain why the 2008 food crisis was an “extraordinary problem”. This one is that “normal” scientific knowledge was defeated by the complexity of what it appears now as a food “poly-crises” (Morin, 2011). We answered by designing an epistemological, methodological, and technical knowledge base from two very different and alternative economics approaches of facing complexity. The first is the Hayekian approach (1899-1992), and the second, the Simonian approach (1916-2001). The research intends to fulfill cumulativity criteria, traditionally difficult to satisfy with the ones of complexity. From the following analysis we mostly learned two things. First, epistemological grounds of economics needed to be broken in complex environment(s): 1) from certainty/objectivity to uncertainty/subjectivity, 2) from accurate prediction to design, 3) from linear causality deemed inappropriate or, worse, threatening people freedoms, to complex causality. Second, in the adaptation process, the role of “tacit” knowledge production and sharing is central. For that reason, the core of economics problem is not allocation of resources anymore. Now, the main problem for humans whose cognitive capacity are “bounded” is to compute, to “socialize” (Nonaka et alii, 1994, 2001), available but dispersed information and knowledge and to converse them into heuristics or patterns allowing the adaptation to complex and uncertain environment(s). Two others auxiliary hypotheses –E. Ostrom (2011) will endorse them later- can be drawn from that preliminary work: 1) the dynamics of change rooted “in the thinking and in the creativity of people involved in complex situations and their capacity to restructure their own models for interactions”, 2) reciprocal altruism (Simon, 1992, 1993) is a rational behavior which can be more effective in/for the social interactions in complex environment(s) than maximizing or selfish behavior. To present preliminary results in an effective way, we created a very simple interface scheme. It takes the form of a three-dimensional knowledge loop with two strands, “generic” and “tacit” knowledge connected between themselves to produce by recursion a meta-knowledge. We made the choice of the interface because it reflects with the most accuracy the position defended by Hayek and Simon which is that economics is a frontier science. Moreover, the interface has the advantage of being both open and closed. A part of the research is more specifically dedicated to design tools increasing the understanding of the “polyfood” crises. We elaborated a three-level indicator with: 1) perceptions of the contribution of each factor to the outbreak and the worsening of the situation; 2) contributions of actors to the explanation of the food crisis proposed in 2008. It was developed from: 1) a case study comparing and contrasting explanations proposed a) in their statements by 138 Heads of State and Government attended the High Level Conference on World Food Security (3-5 June 2008), b) in their analyses by economists, c) in their testimonies by people hit by under nutrition/rising food prices (database IRIN); 2) a new and more updated typology focused on the responses addressed by 18 countries split into 3 groups [...].

新的俄羅斯聯邦成立以來，不論俄美或者是俄歐的經貿關係都遠比俄中的經貿關係來得重要，但是，俄羅斯政府卻一再地透過公開宣示要盡力發展同中國間的經貿關係，並且雙方的領導人、政府高層每年還定期會晤來商討相關的事宜。所以，俄中經貿關係的研究就顯得有其重要性與時代性，尤其是俄羅斯聯邦成立之初，在國外不僅面對西方國家有意的圍堵；國內還面臨了嚴重的經濟挫敗與政治亂局，使得俄羅斯必須選擇其他對她可能有幫助的國家，而這也突顯了俄羅斯在俄中經貿關係的發展中是扮演著主導的地位。因此，本論文旨在探討俄羅斯內外在的環境因素對俄中經貿關係的影響，並且從俄羅斯的觀點來探討她的的決策過程。 　　本論文認為：獨立後的俄羅斯所面臨的國際局勢已非過去兩極化的國際體系，在無法完全得知西方國家對於新的俄羅斯所採取的態度情況下，俄羅斯唯有在維護其國家尊嚴與利益的前提，選擇可以令其經濟復甦的政策。由此原始命題可以演繹下列三個邏輯命題：（一）面對美國主導的北約東擴的潛在性威脅，以及西方國家對於經援俄羅斯的態度總是百般刁難、口惠而實不至，造成俄羅斯聯合與她友好的中國，並調整其決策目標取向。（二）在經濟改革上遭到了重大的打擊，並因為外交上的的挫敗所引起的政治上的鬥爭，使得俄羅斯領導階層意識到必須要改變其原本合作的對象，轉而與有共同利益的中國發展政治與經濟的關係。（三）現實上，西方國家已非完全可以信任的合作夥伴，所以，俄羅斯便傾向於選擇在歷史上與情感上較能與自己合作的中國。 　　上述的三個子命題構成本論文的主要核心論點，第壹章：為緒論，說明研究動機與目的、研究範圍、文獻回顧、研究途徑與架構。第貳章：理性抉擇之檢析，這一章主要為討論理性概念之發展與在「理性抉擇典範」下發展的幾個主要的理論，以及理性抉擇在國際關係上的分析運用。第參章：為國際環境因素的分析，這一章主要為分析俄羅斯在這一段期間所面臨到的國際環境因素對她所造成的影響，包括經濟、政治與戰略等層面的衝擊。第肆章：為國內環境因素的分析，這一章主要為分析俄羅斯在這一段期間所面臨到的國內環境因素對她所造成的影響，包括經濟改革挫敗、政治上府會的鬥爭與俄屬遠東地區開發等因素的互動關係，第伍章：為俄中經貿關係發展的前景，這一章主要為探討前面兩章對於俄中經貿關係發展所造成的影響，並對於俄中經貿關係發展的前景做了一番期許與建議。第陸章結論。 / Even though Russian government always openly declarethat they will develop trade relationship with China, and both of their leaders set a date to discuss thease matters. Since Russian Federation were founded, Russian-U.S. and Russian-E.U.’s trade relationship were been far more important than Russian-Sino trade relation. So, research of Russian-Sino trade relationship has it’s significance and urgency. Especially when Russian Federation were established. Externally the Federation face with western countries’ block, internally, they face serious economical failures and chaotic political situations, which force Russia to search for potential aid. Such situation appear that Russia play the leading role in Russian-Sino trade relation. Therefore, this thesis is purporting the discussion of Russia’s internal and external conditions and it’s influence on Russian-Sino trade relation. Also from Russia’s point of view to discuss their decision-making process. 　　Unlike the past polarization world, this thesis consider that after Russia’s independence, Russia faced a new international situation. And unknown to western countries’ policy, Russia have to preserve their national majesty and interests, to choose relevent policy in order to revive their country. From this original topic, I’ll deduction the following three logically propositions: (1) Due to U.S. led NATO expansion eastward, and western countries’ unfriendly manner to aid Russia. Russia ally with their friendly neighborhood-China. Then, Russia will adjust their decision objective. (2) Russia suffered serious economic downturn during “Shock Therapy”, and political conflict caused by Russia’s diplomatic failures. Russia’s leading class realized that they must change strategic partners. Providing political and economical relationship with China would be a better choose for Russia, as they have common interests. (3) Russia tend to choose China, due to historical and emotional factors, as they can't completely trust western world. 　　These three logically propositions above are core topic of this thesis. In accordance with these three points, the thesis will be discussed in six chapters. Chapter one, introduction, it’ll explain the purpose, scope and approaches of this study. Chapter two, an analysis of rational choice, will discuss the concept of ration and some major theories under “rational choice paragon” which analyze on international affairs. Chapter three an analysis of international conditions. This chapter will discuss economical, political, strategic problem it given the change in international environment. Chapter four an analysis of domestic environment. This chapter analyze the changing domestic conditions including failure of its economical reform and political instability. Chapter five outlook of Russian-Sino trade relationship, this chapter provide an insight outlook of potential development of Russian-Sino trade relations. Chapter six conclusion.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:57:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 AlessandraSFGodoi2006.pdf.jpg: 19061 bytes, checksum: 5263ea29f172cb43b07515b286172b45 (MD5) AlessandraSFGodoi2006.pdf.txt: 614967 bytes, checksum: 24e37083b48ca5557be63aeda5dfcd58 (MD5) AlessandraSFGodoi2006.pdf: 1323544 bytes, checksum: 0f61d5b19c999541c7bf435400b8fed8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-08-09T00:00:00Z / Esta tese oferece uma releitura crítica da influente obra de Herbert A. Simon e alguns de seus seguidores sobre a decisão de modo geral, tendo em vista um problema específico: a decisão de investimento da firma. A partir de um exercício de aplicação teórica, bem como de um conjunto de oito estudos de caso, propõe-se um modelo sintético ou roteiro para a compreensão da decisão de investimento da firma segundo uma perspectiva processual que se baseia na idéia central de construção de uma representação da realidade. Esta estaria sujeita a limitações de caráter cognitivo à coleta e ao processamento de informações (racionalidade limitada), bem como ao condicionamento das possibilidades de ação efetivamente disponíveis ao empreendedor, mediante uma rede de sinergias e escolhas menores cujas conseqüências não foi possível prever ao longo de um amplo leque de dimensões, a decisões passadas (liberdade limitada, conceito original introduzido por esta tese). Com base nessa estrutura, divide-se o processo decisório em três etapas (busca, análise e escolha), discutindo-se em detalhe cada um deles e ressaltando elementos importantes que conferem estrutura e coerência ao processo, dado o pressuposto de que a otimização irrestrita neoclássica não é alcançável, na prática, no caso da decisão de investimento da firma. / This thesis offers an interpretation of the influential work of Herbert A. Simon and some of his followers regarding decision-making as a whole, considering a specific problem: the investment decision by firms. Combining insights obtained from the application of the theory and from the conduct of eight case studies, we propose a synthetic model for the understanding of firm investment decisions according to a processual perspective, based on the central idea of the construction by entrepreneurs of a representation of reality. This representation is subject to cognitive limitations related to difficulties in collecting and processing information (bounded rationality), as well as to the conditioning of possibilities of action truly available to the entrepreneur to past choices, through a net of synergies and smaller decisions, the consequences of which it was not possible to forecast precisely along a large scope of dimensions (bounded liberty, an original concept introduced by this thesis). Based on this structure, the decision process is divided in three stages (search, analysis and choice), each of them discussed in detail with the intention of pointing out the most important elements that confer structure and coherence to the process, assuming that full neoclassical rationality is not attainable in practical complex decisions.