81 |
Feasibility Study of Small Hydropower/PV/Wind Hybrid System for Off-Grid Electrification of Liben and MedaWoulabu VillagesMandefro Bezie, Yalewayker January 2017 (has links)
According to the International Energy Agency 2016 statistics, Ethiopia is among the lowest countries in annual electricity consumption, 70 KWh/capita. Rural areas hold more than 80% of the country’s population and less than 30% of them have been electrified. Most of the population (the rural areas) still predominantly depend on traditional biomass energy sources for cooking and heating, and household lights are provided mainly by kerosene and biomass including this study area, Tadacha Rarasa, which consist of 4100 households with 6 members, totally 24,600 people[1, 2]. The feasibility study of hybrid system consisting of small Hydro, PV, Wind and Battery is carried out using HOMER as a tool for optimization and sensitivity analysis. TURBNPRO software also assists for the optimization of the small hydropower which is suggested to utilize the 2.2 m3/s ecological flow of the Genale 3 multipurpose hydropower plant’s reservoir. The wind speed and solar radiation data of the site is collected from NASA. Then, the wind speed, solar radiation, electric load and hydro data is input to HOMER in their respective appropriate format for simulation and analysis of the proposed hybrid system. Electric loads of the community is estimated bearing in mind the irrigation, fishery and other opportunities which will arise after the multipurpose project completion in addition to basic household demands. The daily average estimated residential consumption by each family is 9.118 kWh and the daily average total energy consumption per person is 1.872 kWh. After optimization and sensitivity analysis using HOMER, several different feasible configurations of Hydro, PV, Wind and Battery hybrid system has been displayed with a range of 0.049 to 0.067 $/kWh cost of energy. The optimum configuration becomes Hydro/PV/Battery hybrid system with 0.049 $/kWh levelized COE which is closer to the national energy tariff, 0.032 USD/kWh. The optimum Hydro/PV/Battery hybrid system generates annually 18,647,372 kWh with 0.18% capacity shortage and 0.15% unmet load. The hydropower supports the base load and the PV supplies for the peak load demand in the daytime which shares 19% of the total electric production.
|
82 |
Juvenila ålars preferenser gällande substrattyp i ramper : En studie om vilken typ av substrat i ramper som bäst hjälper den Europeiska ålen (Anguilla anguilla) förbi vattenkraftverk / Juvenile eels’ preferences for substrate type in ramps : A study on which kind of substrate type in ramps best helps the European eel (Anguilla anguilla) get past hydropower plantsGustafsson, Maria January 2017 (has links)
Sedan 1970-talet har ålbeståndet minskat rejält och under de senaste decennierna har man försökt hitta en lösning på detta problem. En ökad naturlig rekrytering kan hjälpa ålarnas återhämtning. Varje år fastnar en stor mängd juvenila ålar vid vattenkraftverk. För att hjälpa ålarna ta sig förbi dessa kan man installera ramper, vilka hjälper ålarna att klättra förbi vattenkraftverken. Syftet med studien var att ta reda på vilken typ av substrat i ramper vid dessa vattenkraftverk som ålynglen föredrar. Studien utfördes utomhus i två odlingsbassänger där sex stycken ramper hade installerats. Den huvudsakliga studien bestod av ett selektionstest där ålynglen fick välja mellan tre olika substrat. Man antecknade också om det var några yngel som valde att stanna kvar, detta för att kunna testa om det fanns någon signifikant skillnad mellan importerade och vilda ålyngel när det gäller de yngel som inte valt någon av ramperna. Sammanlagt 500 yngel (vilda N=235, importerade N=265) var med i studien. Ålynglen placerades i nätkassar nedanför ramperna. Där hade de möjligheten att antingen välja ett av substraten och vandra uppför rampen, eller stanna kvar i bassängen. De tre substraten som testades var plastkätting, FishPass™ rigid brush mixed green (FishPass™) och Diadrain 25H (D-25). Resultatet blev att både de vilda och de importerade ålynglen föredrog FishPass™ och D-25 framför plastkätting. Det fanns ingen signifikant skillnad mellan FishPass™ och D-25. Man kom också fram till att signifikant fler vildfångade ålar än importerade valde att stanna kvar istället för att klättra upp för en ramp. Resultatet från den här studien säger att vi kan öka antalet juvenila ålar som tar sig förbi vattenkraftverk. Placerar man ut ramper klädda med antingen FishPass™ eller D-25 vid de vattenkraftverk där juvenila ålar har svårt att passera så kan man på så sätt hjälpa ålarnas naturliga rekrytering. / Since the 1970s, eel stocks have declined, and in the recent decades people have been trying to find a solution to this problem. An increased natural recruitment could help the eels to recover. Each year a large quantity of juvenile eels get stuck at hydroelectric plants. To help the eels pass by these plants, ramps can be installed, which help the eels to pass the dams. The purpose of the study was to find out what type of substrate in ramps at these hydropower plants that juvenile eels prefer. The study was conducted in two outdoor hatchery ponds where six ramps had been installed. The main study consisted of a selection test where juvenile eels had to choose between three different substrates. It was also recorded if there were some juveniles who chose to remain, in order to test if there was a significant difference between imported and wild eels when it comes to individuals that have not selected any of the ramps. A total of 500 juveniles (Wild N = 235, Imported N = 265) were included in the study. The juvenile eels were placed in net enclosures beneath the ramps, and had to choose one of the substrates and climb the ramp, or else remain in the net enclosure. The three substrates tested were plastic chain, Fish Pass ™ rigid brush mixed green (Fish Pass™) and Diadrain 25H (D-25). I found that both the wild and imported eels preferred Fish Pass™ and D-25 instead of the plastic chain. There was no significant difference between Fish Pass™ and D-25. It was also found that significantly more wild-caught than imported eels chose to stay in the enclosure instead of climbing up a ramp. The results from this study indicate that we can increase the number of juvenile eels that successfully pass by hydroelectric plants. If we place ramps covered with either Fish Pass™ or D-25 at the hydropower plants, we can help the eel’s natural recruitment.
|
83 |
Machine learning for condition monitoring in hydropower plants using a neural networkStark, Tina January 2019 (has links)
The hydro power industry stands for new challenges due to a more fluctuating production fromwind and solar power. This requires more regulation of the production in the hydro powerstations, which increases maintenance demands. An oil leakage has not only consequencessuch as downtimes and maintenance costs, but also an environmental impact. Skellefte ̊aKraft is working towards reaching a condition based maintenance. Therefore, the purpose ofthis master thesis is to develop a model using a feedforward neural network to predict the oillevel in the control system of a Kaplan turbine and map which sensor signals that are required.The thesis will cover data from two hydro power stations, Grytfors and B ̊atfors, each ofwhich has two units, G1 and G2. Due to limitations of the database Skellefte ̊a Kraft areusing, the data has minute resolution and covers two months, December and January. Themodel is developed in MATLAB using their Deep Learning toolbox and the neural networkfeedforwardnet. Before training and testing the model, an optimization was done. Grytforshas a full range of sensor signals while B ̊atfors has half the amount and therefore, the datafor Grytfors was used in the optimization. A grid search was done to optimize the hyperpa-rameters using cross validation. To map which input parameters that are required a featureselection was done.From the result of the feature selection, power, accumulator levels 1 and 2 and pressurewere chosen as the input parameters for Grytfors. For B ̊atfors, all of the the existing sensorsignals were used instead. The model is then trained and tested for the two different powerstations. For Grytfors, the predicted oil level follows the pattern of the real oil level but thetest error is around 15-20 liter. Four different tests were done for B ̊atfors. The two firstfor unit 1, the third for unit 2 and the fourth on both units to investigate the potential of ageneral model for one power station. For B ̊atfors, the first two tests have test errors of around4-6 liters. The third and fourth tests have test errors of around 1.5 liter. In the first twotests, the December data contains a potential refill sequence and in the third test, for unit2, the data contains start and stop sequences. The results showed the importance of havingcomprehensive training data.
|
84 |
Desempenho de desenvolvimento humano dos municípios brasileiros afetados por usinas hidrelétricas e suas relações com a trajetória da avaliação de impacto ambiental / Human development performance of municipalities affected by hydroelectric plants and its relation with the environmental impact assessment trajectoryZuca, Nádia Lúcia 17 October 2016 (has links)
As usinas hidrelétricas são fundamentais na produção energética brasileira, sendo também responsáveis pela geração de importantes impactos ambientais negativos na escala local, os quais acabam tendo efeito no próprio desempenho dos municípios afetados. Com o objetivo de equacionar estes impactos de natureza física, biótica e socioeconômica, instituiu-se a Avaliação de Impacto Ambiental (AIA) por meio da Política Nacional de Meio Ambiente em 1981. A partir de então, este instrumento tem passado por alterações temporais no campo político, legal, institucional e técnico, as quais podem refletir-se na forma como o instrumento equaciona os impactos ambientais e, neste caso, nos próprios desempenhos de desenvolvimento dos locais afetados por hidrelétricas. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a relação entre o desempenho de desenvolvimento nos municípios brasileiros afetados por hidrelétricas e a trajetória da Avaliação de Impacto Ambiental. Nesse sentido, o resultado obtido neste trabalho, é um indicativo de que a AIA quando bem executada pode ser um meio eficaz para gestão de impactos e planejamento ambiental. / Brazilian hydropower plants are fundamental in Brazil\'s energy production, although they are also responsible for generating significant environmental impacts at the local scale, which having an effect on their own municipal development performances. Aiming to solve these physical, biotic and socio-economic impacts, was created the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) by the National Environmental Policy in 1981. Since then, this instrument was temporal changed by political, legal, institutional and technical contexts, which may be reflected in how the instrument solves environmental impacts and, in this case, the municipal development performances affected by hydropower plants. This project aimed to analysis the relationships between municipal development performances and the temporal course of Environmental Impact Assessment. In this sense, the result obtained in this project is an indication that the EIA when well executed can be an effective means for impact management and environmental planning.
|
85 |
Caracterização da variação temporal de sólidos em suspensão da água em PCHs no rio Ivaí-RS a partir de dados limnológicos e de sensoriamento remotoPeixoto, Daniela Wancura Barbieri January 2018 (has links)
Os reservatórios hidrelétricos, além da geração de energia, apresentam outros benefícios socioeconômicos como a estocagem de água para usos futuros, controle de inundação, e abastecimento de água. Dentre os recursos naturais, a água é um dos que mais sofre alterações em suas características naturais, estas mudanças são devido às formas de exploração, degradação e erosão da bacia de captação. Neste sentido, o presente estudo tem por objetivo caracterizar a variação espaço-temporal dos constituintes opticamentes ativos, a partir da integração de dados de Sensoriamento Remoto orbital, em Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas (PCHs) no rio Ivaí-RS, as PCHs Ernesto Dreher, Cascata do Ivaí e Henrique Kotzian. Para a análise espaço-temporal foram utilizadas nove imagens do satélite Landsat 8-OLI. A área de estudo foi amostrada considerando o período de um ano hidrológico (junho de 2015-maio de 2016). Os dados de sólidos em suspensão foram obtidos em trabalhos de campo na mesma data de passagem do satélite. A partir das imagens Landsat obteve-se os dados de reflectância e foi aplicada a análise dos componentes principais. Dados de precipitação pluviométrica nas PCHs foram utilizados para complementar dados da área de estudo. Verificou-se que os valores de precipitação pluviométrica devem ser levados em consideração na análise dos dados de Sensoriamento Remoto e limnológicos, pois associados ao uso da terra apresentam fortes influências no transporte de material para a bacia de captação. No que se refere a análise dos componentes principais esta mostrou-se ser uma ferramenta estatística de extrema importância em estudos físico-químicos de águas, pois possibilitou a identificação de compartimentos aquáticos bem definidos. Outro item abordado foi a estimativa dos Totais de Sólidos Suspensos (TSS) em função da imagem de reflectância, sendo que nesse cenário de pequenos barramentos o modelo proposto mostrou-se indicado para a estimativa da concentração de sólidos suspensos. Desta forma, verificou-se que o estudo nos reservatórios das PCHs utilizando técnicas de Sensoriamento Remoto foi de grande importância na extração e espacialização de informações, pois facilita o armazenamento e manipulação dos dados, favorecendo as análises como a disponibilização de produtos cartográficos, tais como mapas e figuras contendo os resultados. / The hydropower plants, besides generating power, present other social-economic benefits such as the water storage for future uses, flood regulation and water supply. Amongst all the natural resources, water is one that most suffers changes on its natural characteristics. These changes are due to forms of exploitation, degradation and erosion of the river basin. Seen in these terms, the present study aims to characterize the temporal variation of the optically active constituents from the data integration of the Orbital Remote Sensing in Small Hydropower Plants (SHPs) in Ivaí River - Rio Grande do Sul: Ernesto Dreher, Cascata do Ivaí and Henrique Kotzian. For spatiotemporal analysis, 9 images from the Landsat 8-OLI satellite were used. The area of study was sampled considering the period of a hydrological year (june 2015-may 2016). The data from the suspended solids were obtained in field research on the same date of the satellite passage. From the Landsat images, the reflectance data and the Analysis of the Main Components was obtained. Rainfall data in the SHPs were used to complement field research data. The rainfall data values should be taken into consideration in the Remote Sensing and Limnological data, as those, associated to land use, present strong influence on the transportation of material for the river basin. In relation to the Analysis of the Main Components, it shows to be a statistic tool of extreme importance in physical-chemical studies of water, as it enables the identification of well-defined water compartments. Another item approached was the total suspended solids (TSS )estimation in relation to the image of reflectance being that in the scenario of small plants, the proposed model shows itself to be indicated for the concentration of Suspended Solids estimation. Thus, it was verified that the study in the reservoirs of the SHPs using techniques of Remote Sensing was of great importance in the extraction and spatialization of information as it facilitates storage and manipulation of data, promoting analysis such as the provision of map products, for example: maps and figures on the results.
|
86 |
AvaliaÃÃo dos PadrÃes de Variablilidade e MudanÃa ClimÃtica no Setor HidrelÃtrico Brasileiro / Evaluation of Standards Variablilidade and Climate Change in Brazilian Hydropower SectorBruno Costa Castro Alves 13 June 2012 (has links)
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar as possÃveis tendÃncias aliadas Ãs
mudanÃas climÃticas, em sÃries histÃricas de vazÃes naturalizadas nos postos do Operador
Nacional do Sistema (ONS). Os mÃtodos de anÃlise utilizados foram os mÃtodos ditos
clÃssicos (mÃdia e mediana mÃvel, regressÃo linear, LOWESS e Mann-Kendall-Sen), o estudo
de cheias atravÃs do ajuste das sÃries à distribuiÃÃo de Gumbel, anÃlise da transformada em
ondeletas (Wavelets) e a correlaÃÃo entre vazÃes e Ãndices climÃticos. Os resultados
mostraram que existe uma tendÃncia ou uma variabilidade de baixa frequÃncia positiva nas
regiÃes sul, sudeste e centro-oeste, enquanto que na regiÃo nordeste, existe uma tendÃncia ou
variabilidade de baixa frequÃncia negativa nas vazÃes. Identificou-se ainda, uma coincidÃncia
entre a mudanÃa de patamar de regime de vazÃes em alguns postos com valores elevados do
Ãndice PDO, podendo indicar que existe uma variabilidade de baixa frequÃncia nas vazÃes.
Observou-se atravÃs da anÃlise da transformada em ondeletas que existe uma variabilidade de
baixa frequÃncia de perÃodo igual entre 40 e 80 anos e uma variabilidade de mÃdia frequÃncia
de perÃodo entre 10 e 20 anos na maioria dos postos analisados. Os resultados para os modelos
climÃticos do CMIP3 indicam que no cenÃrio A1B do IPCC (sÃculo XXI) hà um aumento na
variabilidade das vazÃes em relaÃÃo ao sÃculo XX (20C3M) na maioria dos modelos para os
24 postos selecionados do Sistema Interligado Nacional. Os resultados da correlaÃÃo entre as
vazÃes mÃdias naturalizadas dos postos do ONS com os Ãndices climÃticos, mostraram que
apenas o Ãndice NiÃo1+2 apresentou uma correlaÃÃo linear moderada com as mesmas. / Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar as possÃveis tendÃncias aliadas Ãs
mudanÃas climÃticas, em sÃries histÃricas de vazÃes naturalizadas nos postos do Operador
Nacional do Sistema (ONS). Os mÃtodos de anÃlise utilizados foram os mÃtodos ditos
clÃssicos (mÃdia e mediana mÃvel, regressÃo linear, LOWESS e Mann-Kendall-Sen), o estudo
de cheias atravÃs do ajuste das sÃries à distribuiÃÃo de Gumbel, anÃlise da transformada em
ondeletas (Wavelets) e a correlaÃÃo entre vazÃes e Ãndices climÃticos. Os resultados
mostraram que existe uma tendÃncia ou uma variabilidade de baixa frequÃncia positiva nas
regiÃes sul, sudeste e centro-oeste, enquanto que na regiÃo nordeste, existe uma tendÃncia ou
variabilidade de baixa frequÃncia negativa nas vazÃes. Identificou-se ainda, uma coincidÃncia
entre a mudanÃa de patamar de regime de vazÃes em alguns postos com valores elevados do
Ãndice PDO, podendo indicar que existe uma variabilidade de baixa frequÃncia nas vazÃes.
Observou-se atravÃs da anÃlise da transformada em ondeletas que existe uma variabilidade de
baixa frequÃncia de perÃodo igual entre 40 e 80 anos e uma variabilidade de mÃdia frequÃncia
de perÃodo entre 10 e 20 anos na maioria dos postos analisados. Os resultados para os modelos
climÃticos do CMIP3 indicam que no cenÃrio A1B do IPCC (sÃculo XXI) hà um aumento na
variabilidade das vazÃes em relaÃÃo ao sÃculo XX (20C3M) na maioria dos modelos para os
24 postos selecionados do Sistema Interligado Nacional. Os resultados da correlaÃÃo entre as
vazÃes mÃdias naturalizadas dos postos do ONS com os Ãndices climÃticos, mostraram que
apenas o Ãndice NiÃo1+2 apresentou uma correlaÃÃo linear moderada com as mesmas. / This sduty aims to evaluate possible trends, coupled with climate change, in
naturalized flows time series iat the stations of the Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS). The
analytical methods used were the so-called classical methods (mean and median mobile,
linear regression, LOWESS and Mann-Kendall-Sen), the study of peak floods by adjusting
the time series to Gumbel distribution, analysis of wavelet transforms and the correlation
between flows and climate indices. The results showed tha there is a positive trend or a
possible low-frequency variability in south, southeast and midwest of Brazil, while in the
northwest, there is a negative trend or low frequency variability in flows. It was also found a
coincidence between the step change of flow regime in some stations with high values of
PDO index, wiich may indicate tha there is a low frequwncy variability in flows. The analysis
of wavelet transformation indicate that there is a low frequency of variability with a period
between 40 and 80 years and an average frequency of variability with a period between 10
and 20 years in most flow stations analyzed. The results for the CMIP3 climate models
indicate that, in the IPCC A1B scenario for the 21th century, there is an increase in the
variability of flows over the twentieth century in the most of models of the 24 selected
stations of SIN for this study. The results of the correlation between the average monthly flow
and the climate indices, showed that only NiÃo 1+2 index have a moderate linear correlation. / This sduty aims to evaluate possible trends, coupled with climate change, in
naturalized flows time series iat the stations of the Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS). The
analytical methods used were the so-called classical methods (mean and median mobile,
linear regression, LOWESS and Mann-Kendall-Sen), the study of peak floods by adjusting
the time series to Gumbel distribution, analysis of wavelet transforms and the correlation
between flows and climate indices. The results showed tha there is a positive trend or a
possible low-frequency variability in south, southeast and midwest of Brazil, while in the
northwest, there is a negative trend or low frequency variability in flows. It was also found a
coincidence between the step change of flow regime in some stations with high values of
PDO index, wiich may indicate tha there is a low frequwncy variability in flows. The analysis
of wavelet transformation indicate that there is a low frequency of variability with a period
between 40 and 80 years and an average frequency of variability with a period between 10
and 20 years in most flow stations analyzed. The results for the CMIP3 climate models
indicate that, in the IPCC A1B scenario for the 21th century, there is an increase in the
variability of flows over the twentieth century in the most of models of the 24 selected
stations of SIN for this study. The results of the correlation between the average monthly flow
and the climate indices, showed that only NiÃo 1+2 index have a moderate linear correlation.
|
87 |
Assessment of the significance of the autocorrelation for the series trend analysis historical National Operator Flow of the Electrical System (ONS) in Brazil / AvaliaÃÃo da importÃncia da autocorrelaÃÃo para a anÃlise de tendÃncias das sÃries histÃricas de vazÃo do Operador Nacional do Sistema ElÃtrico (ONS) no BrasilPriscilla Paiva de Medeiros 29 May 2015 (has links)
Brazil has majority share of hydroelectric power in its generation matrix
electricity, depending on the rainy seasons and settlement of multiannual
reservoirs to ensure safety in the generation and distribution system power
national power. In this context, time series analysis can provide information
useful for planning and more efficient operation of the reservoirs, identifying
possible trends in the flow of data or precipitation of the integrated stations
hydroelectric plants. The trend analysis in hydrological series is held
traditionally using non-parametric tests such as the Mann-Kendall test, and
You can treat both monotonic trends or abrupt as in various ways.
Such tests, although not require information about the distribution of data,
require data to be independent, which rarely occurs in series
hydrologic variables. Thus, new tests have arisen in the trend analysis, with
objective of taking the autocorrelation of the series under consideration. This paper proposes
trend analysis of historical streamflow series of major basins
contribute to the National Interconnected System (SIN), obtained from data
National Electric System Operator (ONS). The analysis will aim check
importance of considering the autocorrelation of the data to detect trends,
analyzing the first series without considering the autocorrelation - the nonparametric method
Traditional Mann-Kendall with Sen estimator - and then
applying filters Pre-Whitening and Trend-Free Pre-Whitening. The tests were
implemented through the MatLab program to analyze the average natural flow
monthly provided by the ONS. The spatial distribution of trends found
It was presented through maps created the Free Software QGIS. The results
found for the ONS posts corroborated the theory that the autocorrelation
influences the detection of trends.
Keywords: autocorrelation, trend analysis, hydropower se / O Brasil possui participaÃÃo majoritÃria de energia hidroelÃtrica em sua matriz de geraÃÃo
de energia elÃtrica, dependendo das estaÃÃes chuvosas e da regularizaÃÃo plurianual dos
reservatÃrios para garantir a seguranÃa na geraÃÃo e distribuiÃÃo de energia do sistema
elÃtrico nacional. Nesse contexto, a anÃlise de sÃries temporais pode oferecer informaÃÃes
Ãteis para o planejamento e a operaÃÃo mais eficientes dos reservatÃrios, identificando
possÃveis tendÃncias nos dados de vazÃo ou de precipitaÃÃo dos postos integrados Ãs
usinas hidrelÃtricas. A anÃlise de tendÃncias em sÃries hidrolÃgicas à realizada
tradicionalmente atravÃs de testes nÃo-paramÃtricos, como o teste de Mann-Kendall, e
pode tratar tanto de tendÃncias monotÃnicas, quanto de abruptas ou de formas diversas.
Esses testes, apesar de nÃo requererem informaÃÃes sobre a distribuiÃÃo dos dados,
requerem que os dados sejam independentes, o que raramente ocorre nas sÃries de
variÃveis hidrolÃgicas. Assim, novos testes surgiram na anÃlise de tendÃncias, com o
objetivo de levar a autocorrelaÃÃo das sÃries em consideraÃÃo. O presente trabalho propÃe
a anÃlise de tendÃncias das sÃries histÃricas de vazÃes das principais bacias que
contribuem para o Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), obtidas a partir de dados do
Operador Nacional do Sistema ElÃtrico (ONS). A anÃlise terà por objetivo verificar a
importÃncia da consideraÃÃo da autocorrelaÃÃo dos dados na detecÃÃo de tendÃncias,
analisando as sÃries primeiramente sem considerar a autocorrelaÃÃo - pelo mÃtodo nÃoparamÃtrico
tradicional de Mann-Kendall com estimador de Sen - e, em seguida,
aplicando os filtros do Pre-Whitening e do Trend-Free Pre-Whitening. Os testes foram
implementados atravÃs do programa MatLab, para anÃlise das vazÃes naturais mÃdias
mensais disponibilizadas pelo ONS. A distribuiÃÃo espacial das tendÃncias encontradas
foi apresentada atravÃs de mapas criados no software livre QGIS. Os resultados
encontrados para os postos do ONS corroboraram a teoria de que a autocorrelaÃÃo
influencia na detecÃÃo de tendÃncias.
|
88 |
Mapping run-of-river hydropower resource of large catchmentsWalker, Antony David January 2018 (has links)
There is overwhelming scientific evidence that shows the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere is rising at an unprecedented rate. This is attributed to increased levels of greenhouse gas emissions, a large proportion of which originates from anthropogenic combustion of carbon-based fossil fuels for energy. There is therefore a strong argument for the increased role of less environmentally damaging, low carbon energy sources including renewable energy technologies. Run-of-river hydropower is one such renewable energy option, considered more environmentally benign than traditional hydropower which requires the construction of large dams to create a reservoir. The aim of this study was to develop a model to search for, and map, economically viable run-of-river hydropower resource that can function on any global catchment of any size. Development and testing of the model was conducted on China's 2 million km2 Yangtze River drainage basin, the third longest river in the world and a rich landscape for hydropower. A gridded, distributed hydrological model was developed integrating high-resolution meteorological datasets and a digital elevation model (DEM). Using the model, the surface hydrology of the Yangtze catchment was simulated at a timestep of 6 minutes to obtain the mean daily surface runoff for every day from the beginning of 1979 to the end of 2007. Observed river flow data from sub-catchments of the Yangtze were used to calibrate the model by differential optimisation, an evolutionary computation technique. Validation was carried out on a 1.6 million km2 sub-catchment resulting in a mean objective function of 0.95 (where a perfect fit would be 1.0) across 8 objective functions commonly used in hydrology. Catchment wide mean daily runoff data was used to develop flow duration curves across the catchment river network. Virtual power stations were constructed at each river cell, iteratively testing differing scheme configurations, and costed using the RETScreen methodology. A best performing hydropower network was determined by a conflict algorithm, designed to prioritise high profit schemes and to remove lower performing and conflicting schemes. This resulted in a potential run-of-river installed capacity across the Yangtze catchment of 103GW (at 10% discount rate), generating 394TWh per annum. This model would be a valuable tool in finding optimal locations for future hydropower resource.
|
89 |
Desajustes identificados em relatórios de estudos de impactos ambientais em empreendimentos hidrelétricos focando os grupos de aves e mamíferos silvestres / Discrepancies identified in environmental impact assessment reports for hydropower projects focused on analyses of wild birds and mammalsKamogawa, Adriana Akemi Kuniy 19 March 2013 (has links)
Os Estudos de Impacto Ambiental (EIA) foram legalmente institucionalizados no Brasil durante a década de 1980. Estes são balizados a partir do Termo de Referência (TR) que define as diretrizes que o EIAs deverão seguir, mas não determina qual grupo faunístico e metodologias devem ser adotadas, o que fica a critério dos empreendedores e consultores contratados. Visando verificar se esse procedimento resulta ou não em ausência de padronização entre os TRs e os relatórios de EIAs, bem como em outros possíveis desajustes que resultem na menor eficácia dos relatórios de EIA, foram compararados nove relatórios de empreendimentos hidrelétricos das décadas de 1980, 1990 e dos anos 2000. Para tanto, foram utilizadas informações como atendimento às exigências contidas nos TRs e metodologias utilizadas, no que diz respeito aos métodos de coleta, esforço amostral, levantamento de grupos de aves e mamíferos dependentes de hábitats específicos relacionados, solidez das listas de faunas e análise dos dados. Além disso, foi avaliada a aplicabilidade do delineamento RAPELD na avaliação de impacto de empreendimentos hidrelétricos. Os resultados indicaram que há discrepância quanto aos esforços amostrais e às metodologias utilizadas nos estudos, além da ausência de informações requeridas pelos Termos de Referência e a escassez de dados relacionados aos grupos de fauna associada aos ambientes que serão afetados e a aves e mamíferos dependentes de ambientes aluviais. O delineamento RAPELD muitas vezes não é aplicável em regiões com alterações antrogênicas, mas deve-se levar em consideração que a recomendação de sua utilização pelo órgão ambiental para um casos analisados indica uma sutil evolução recente no delineamento amostral. As análises realizadas neste trabalho podem servir como indicadores sobre o estado geral da efetividade dos EIA como ferramentas a serem utilizadas pela sociedade no que se refere às intervenções ambientais. / Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies were legally institutionalised in Brazil in the 1980s, and their elaboration is based on guidelines established by Terms of Reference (TR) which define the main directives to be followed by each project\'s EIA, but often do not determine the faunal groups to include and the methods to be employed choices which are then left at the discretion of the company proposing the project and their hired consultants. In order to analyse whether this procedure does or does not result in an absence of standardisation among Terms of Reference and EIA studies, as well as in other disparities which may impair the effectiveness of EIA reports, this work compared 9 EIA reports for hydro-power projects from the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The reports were compared with regard to such information as compliance with the requirements set by the TRs and methodology used (including sampling methods, sampling effort, study of bird and mammal groups dependent on specific habit types, reliability of the fauna lists provided and data analysis). The appropriateness of the RAPELD sampling design for Hydro-power environmental impact assessments was also analysed. The results indicated incongruities as to the sampling effort and the methodologies employed for the studies, as well as an absence of information required according to the Terms of Reference and a paucity of data specifically dealing with fauna groups associated with environments to be directly affected by the projects and with mammals and birds dependent on alluvial environments. The RAPELD sampling design is often considered inappropriate for highly human-modified regions, but it is noted that its recommendation by environmental agencies for some of the cases analysed indicates a recent improvement in sampling designs. This work\'s findings may serve as indicators of the overall state of the effectiveness of EIA studies as tools for the society to assess the effects of interventions in the environment.
|
90 |
Rights to the River: Implementing A Social Cost-Benefit Analysis in the United States Hydropower Relicensing ProcessWendle, Claire 01 January 2019 (has links)
Private hydropower operations across the United States are utilizing a public resource, rivers, for power production benefits. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulates river use through a relicensing procedure that occurs every thirty or fifty years through a cost-benefit analysis framework to determine the best public use of the river. This thesis explores the structure of the current cost-benefit analysis and the effects of timing, public participation and valuation of ecosystem services in the final relicensing decision, and recommends the use of a social cost-benefit framework to distribute the natural resource benefits rivers provide more equally and give fair weight to ecosystem benefits in a market-driven process.
|
Page generated in 0.0356 seconds