We propose a model for an insurance loss index and the claims process of a single insurance company holding a fraction of the total number of contracts that captures both ordinary losses and losses due to catastrophes. In this model we price a catastrophe derivative by the method of utility indifference pricing. The associated stochastic optimization problem is treated by techniques for piecewise deterministic Markov processes. A numerical study illustrates our results.

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Multinomial selection problem procedures are ranking and selection techniques that aim to select the best (most probable) alternative based upon a sequence of multinomial observations. The classical formulation of the procedure design problem is to find a decision rule for terminating sampling. The decision rule should minimize the expected number of observations taken while achieving a specified indifference zone requirement on the prior probability of making a correct selection when the alternative configurations are in a particular subset of the probability space called the preference zone. We study the constrained version of the design problem in which there is a given maximum number of allowed observations. Numerous procedures have been proposed over the past 50 years, all of them suboptimal. In this thesis, we find via linear programming the optimal selection procedure for any given probability configuration. The optimal procedure turns out to be necessarily randomized in many cases. We also find via mixed integer programming the optimal non-randomized procedure. We demonstrate the performance of the methodology on a number of examples. We then reformulate the mathematical programs to make them more efficient to implement, thereby significantly expanding the range of computationally feasible problems. We prove that there exists an optimal policy which has at most one randomized decision point and we develop a procedure for finding such a policy. We also extend our formulation to replicate existing procedures. Next, we show that there is very little difference between the relative performances of the optimal randomized and non-randomized procedures. Additionally, we compare existing procedures using the optimal procedure as a benchmark, and produce updated tables for a number of those procedures. Then, we develop a methodology that guarantees the optimal randomized and non-randomized procedures for a broad class of variable observation cost functions -- the first of its kind. We examine procedure performance under a variety of cost functions, demonstrating that incorrect assumptions regarding marginal observation costs may lead to increased total costs. Finally, we investigate and challenge key assumptions concerning the indifference zone parameter and the conditional probability of correct selection, revealing some interesting implications.

This thesis uses two frameworks for effective gamification and makes a realization of part of them, with the aim of proposing a stage before gamification itself: the enterprise anticipation of gamification, which can be either of optimism or apathy. It can reveal to an enterprise willing to foster people’s motivation which gamification elements are more likely to succeed due to the uncertainties that the concept still carries. A survey was used as an instrument to measure people’s expectations towards game elements to increase the psychological satisfaction according to the Self Determination Theory, and shaped by an instrument to measure maturity in lean. The result of the survey in a company showed that there is an overall interest in gamification elements to increase autonomy and competence, but not relatedness, and also that even if people are aware of a gamification project their expectations are not significantly different from those who are not. Future studies should compare if the anticipation towards game elements are correspondent with the actual feelings when using a gamified solution.

This thesis analyzes the optimal strategies of rational agents in incomplete financial markets. The incompleteness may arise from the stochastic volatility of stock prices, in which case we study the optimal pricing and hedging strategies of an option trader. We introduce a new concept that we call the relative indifference price, which is the price at which a trader is indifferent to trade in an additional option, given that he is currently holding and dynamically hedging a portfolio of options. We find that the appropriate volatility risk premium depends on the trader's risk aversion coeffcient and his portfolio position before selling or buying the additional option. More generally, the incompleteness of the market may arise from both the drift and volatility of the stock being driven by a correlated factor. In this setting, we study the optimal consumption and investment policies of CARA, conservative CRRA and aggressive CRRA agents. In particular, we provide interpretations of the non-myopic investment in terms of martingale measures and the risk monitoring strategy of a path-dependent option. / text

The syntactic and semantic treatment of Chinese Bare Conditionals is a topic of much debate (Cheng and Huang 1996; Lin 1996; Chierchia 2000). This dissertation investigates the nature of Chinese Bare Conditionals in three aspects: quantification and modal implications as compared to English free relatives with –ever, and pronoun occurrence. With regard to quantification, I propose to treat the anteceding wh-phrase and its anaphoric element (pronoun/wh-word) uniformly as a definite description denoting a maximal plural entity similar to Jacobson (1995). This entity can be an atomic entity resulting in a singular definite reading, or an entity consisting of more than one atom deriving a universal-like reading. Concerning modal implication, I propose to capture the agent’s/speaker’s indifference reading of bare conditionals with von Fintel (2000). Indifference reading in his analysis is interpreted against a counterfactual modal base which predicts a causal link. His analysis is needed for the interpretation of Chinese bare conditionals but may not be applied directly to whatever, given that a causal link is necessarily present in a bare conditional, but not required in an English whatever-sentence. I argue that the use of a pronoun in a bare conditional is not subject to a uniqueness and existence condition as claimed in Lin (1996). Although bare conditionals typically contain two identical wh-words, they may occur naturally with a pronoun that links bare conditionals with other sentences into a piece of coherent discourse. This account bears an important implication for the study of Chinese wh-phrases and third person pronouns in being able to predict the existence of anaphoric definite wh-phrases and bound-variable pronouns in the language. It also improves on existing accounts of Chinese bare conditionals in being able to capture the details of the form and meaning of this construction. Chinese bare conditionals are structurally related to ruguo ‘if’-conditionals and Hindi left-adjoined correlatives and their meaning is similar to, and yet not quite the same as that of whatever. / text

Efter finanskrisen 2008 ökade både arbetslöshet och högerpopulism på flera håll i Europa. I denna studie undersöks sambandet mellan arbetslöshet och högerpopulism med målet att avgöra om sambandet är kausalt. Med två olika beroende variabler för stöd samt röstning på högerpopulistiska partier, och tre olika nivåer på arbetslöshet som oberoende variabler, undersöks sambandet med en difference-in-difference analys med två års data över finanskrisen, där första perioden är precis innan krisen och andra perioden precis efter. Resultatet visar att arbetslöshet på landsnivå har en kausal positiv effekt på röstningsandelar för högerpopulistiska partier, vilket antyder att det är ”sociotropic voting” som är mekanismen genom vilken arbetslösheten påverkar högerpopulistiskt röstande.

The centre of S. Francis of Sales's spirituality is love. In my thesis, first of all, I deal with formative influences which formed his personality. This is the starting point in the discourse about Francis's theological optimism, its roots and its influence on the conception of God. For S. Francis God is esentially the God in Trinity, who share love in the highest manner also with a man through the mystery of Incarnation. Francis's conception of love that has its seat in the heart of a human being is connected with that conviction. In the very top of a heart there is the will which is called up to make decisions according to love that gives the true motivation. On the way of the growth of love the highest aim is the holy indifference, which enables God to act in a human heart according to His intentions. For S. Francis love to God is closely connected with love to a man who is the image of God. During his direction of souls to love S. Francis recommends first of all kindness and as the main mens a prayer and sacraments. The heart which has become fully pervaded with love, which loves and is loved, we can best contemplate at Virgin Mary.

Dans cette thèse nous considérons le problème de la maximisation d’utilité et de la formation des prix d’indifférence pour les modèles semimartingales exponentiels dépendant d’un facteur aléatoire ξ. L’enjeu est de résoudre le problème des prix d’indifférence en utilisant le grossissement de l’espace et de la filtration. Nous réduisons le problème de maximisation dans la filtration élargie au problème conditionnel, sachant {ξ = v}, que nous résolvons en utilisant une approche duale. Pour HARA-utilités nous introduisons les informations telles que les entropies relatives et les intégrales de type Hellinger, ainsi que les processus d’information correspondants, enfin d’exprimer, via ces processus, l’utilité maximal. En particulier, nous étudions les modèles de Lévy exponentiels, où les processus d’information sont déterministes ce que simplifie considèrablement les calculs des prix d’indiffrence. Enfin, nous appliquons les rèsultats au modèle du mouvement brownien géométrique et au modèle de diffusion-sauts qui inclut le mouvement brownien et les processus de Poisson. Dans les cas d’utilité logarithmique, de puissance et exponentielle, nous fournissons les formules explicites des informations, et puis, en utilisant les méthodes numériques, nous résolvons les équations pour obtenir les prix d’indifférence en cas de vente d’une option européenne. / This thesis explores the utility maximisation problem and indifference pricing for exponential semimartingale models depending on a random factor ξ. The main idea to solve indifference pricing problem consists in the enlargement of the space and filtration. We reduce the maximization problem on the enlarged filtration to the conditional one, given {ξ = v}, which we solve using dual approach. For HARA-utilities we introduce the information quantities such that the relative entropies, Hellinger type integrals, and the corresponding information processes, and we express the maximal utility via these processes. As a particular case, we study exponential Levy models, where the information processes are deterministic and this fact simplify very much indifference price calculus. Finally, we apply the results to Geometric Brownian motion model and jump-diffusion model which incorporates Brownian motion and Poisson process. In the cases of logarithmic, power and exponential utilities, we provide the explicit formulae of information quantities and using the numerical methods we solve the equations for the seller’s and buyer’s indifference prices of European put option.

ANOVA analysis is a classic tool for multiple comparisons and has been widely used in numerous disciplines due to its simplicity and convenience. The ANOVA procedure is designed to test if a number of different populations are all different. This is followed by usual multiple comparison tests to rank the populations. However, the probability of selecting the best population via ANOVA procedure does not guarantee the probability to be larger than some desired prespecified level. This lack of desirability of the ANOVA procedure was overcome by researchers in early 1950's by designing experiments with the goal of selecting the best population. In this dissertation, a single-stage procedure is introduced to partition k treatments into "good" and "bad" groups with respect to a control population assuming some key parameters are known. Next, the proposed partition procedure is genaralized for the case when the parameters are unknown and a purely-sequential procedure and a two-stage procedure are derived. Theoretical asymptotic properties, such as first order and second order properties, of the proposed procedures are derived to document the efficiency of the proposed procedures. These theoretical properties are studied via Monte Carlo simulations to document the performance of the procedures for small and moderate sample sizes.