The aim of this study is to measure the effectiveness of Altman’s Z-Score model using Non-performing assets (NPA) as a benchmark stability indicator. To do that, this paper examines if Altman’s Z Score Models capture the decline in financial health of the banks caused by the NPAs, using a two-fold analysis i.e., in advance through prediction and when the distress period is ongoing. The findings of this paper would suggest that: 1. During the distress period: The Z-Scores only marginally capture the distress caused by the NPAs, which is in line the findings of Almamy et al that the predictive ability of the model goes down during the crisis period. 2. For the future: The results of the statistical t-tests indicate that, the Z-Scores do not have the predictive ability to capture the future NPAs. Two different models that are developed by Altman - one for non-manufacturing firms and the other for the emerging markets, are used to test, if one model is more suitable than the other to the Indian banking sector. The findings of this paper suggest that, due to the uniqueness of the Indian banking sector during the NPA crisis, the ‘Emerging market model’, does not produce any significantly better results. Therefore, there is further scope to develop a tailor-made model suitable to the Indian banking sector.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-08-30T12:55:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 César Augusto Pires.pdf: 1556011 bytes, checksum: b840c06ef7083d306486c8464b9a921a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-30T12:55:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 César Augusto Pires.pdf: 1556011 bytes, checksum: b840c06ef7083d306486c8464b9a921a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-23 / This paper aims to identify the accounting performance indicators through techniques applied in companies that signal the judicial recovery using logistic regression and discriminant analysis, according to its relevance because it seeks to help decision making by the corporate body of Organizations to avoid future financial problems. The origin and evolution of bankruptcy legislation in Brazil and several models of insolvency used in the literature were presented in research, because it is a descriptive research in relation to its objectives, and quantitative, in terms of procedures, using statistical analysis techniques to evaluate the performance of classification techniques applied to the insolvency problem of publicly held companies; documents and accounting data from 2005 to 2015 were collected from the BM & FBovespa database for the application of empirical tests. The discriminant analysis was able to e valuate 88% of the cases correctly, which is a good percentage of prediction and does not present type II error, that is, to classify a solvent company in judicial recovery, and with 11 variables, since one was discarded, but when logistic regression is compared to discriminant analysis, it provides predictive accuracy comparable to a simpler statistical variable that used the same substantial interpretation with only one variable less and with a global 90% hit percentage. From the results of the logistic regression, it is possible to focus only on the variables X4 = asset structure and X2 = Return concerning equity as the main ones in the differentiation of groups, since the goal of the analysis is not to increase the likelihood of success, once that logistic regression provides a direct technique to distinguish firms' judicial recovery from solvent enterprises and to understand the relative impact of each independent variable in creating differences between the two gro ups of firms. Finally, the results presented show that logistic regression, even using a smaller number of variables, holds a better percentage of correctness / Este trabalho tem por objetivo identificar os indicadores de desempenho contábeis através de técnicas aplicadas em empresas que sinalizam a recuperação judicial utilizando-se da regressão logística e da análise discriminante, haja vista sua relevância porque busca auxiliar a tomada de decisões por parte do corpo corporativo das organizações para evitar problemas futuros financeiros. Foram apresentados no decorrer da pesquisa à origem e a evolução da legislação falimentar no Brasil e diversos modelos de insolvência utilizados pela literatura, por se tratar de uma pesquisa que se caracteriza como descritiva em relação a seus objetivos, e quantitativa, quanto aos procedimentos, ao utilizar técnicas de análise estatísticas para avaliação do desempenho das técnicas de classificação aplicadas ao problema de insolvência de empresas de capital aberto, foram coletados da base de dados do site BM&FBovespa documentos e dados contábeis de 2005 à 2015 para aplicação dos testes empíricos. A Análise discriminante conseguiu avaliar 88% dos casos corretamente, o que é uma boa porcentagem de predição e não apresenta erro do tipo II, ou seja, classificar uma empresa solvente em recuperação judicial, e com 11 variáveis, já que uma foi descartada, mas, quando a regressão logística é comparada com a análise discriminante, ela fornece precisão preditiva comparável com uma variável estatística mais simples que usava a mesma interpretação substancial, apenas com uma variável a menos e com uma porcentagem global de acerto de 90%. A partir dos resultados da regressão logística, é possível se concentrar apenas nas variáveis X4 = estrutura de ativos e X2= Retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido como as principais na diferenciação de grupos, pois a meta da análise não é aumentar a probabilidade de sucesso, ainda que a regressão logística forneça uma técnica direta para distinguir as empresas recuperação judicial das empresas solventes e compreender o impacto relativo de cada variável independente na criação de diferenças entre os dois grupos de empresas. Por fim, os resultados apresentados evidencia que a regressão logística mesmo utilizando um menor número de variável tem melhor porcentagem de acerto

O trabalho aqui apresentado é uma análise retrospectiva de modelos desenvolvidos, no Brasil, sobre o estudo da previsão de insolvência das empresas, objetivando-se avaliar a aplicação de métodos quantitativos para fins de análise de demonstrações contábeis. Considera-se que é relevante a avaliação da continuidade da empresa, e que, se for possível identificar fato em contrário, o uso de modelos de previsão é de importância no que tange à decisão de concessão de crédito, tanto no âmbito da intermediação financeira, realizada pelos bancos, quanto no âmbito de transações comerciais entre fornecedores e clientes. Desta última, pode-se inferir sobre a avaliação da concessão ou não da Concordata para uma empresa, servindo aqueles modelos como ferramental de análise da capacidade da empresa em cumprir o acordo da concordata, ponto esse explorado nesta pesquisa. Através da aplicação dos modelos sobre uma amostra de empresas que haviam solicitado a concordata, pôde-se avaliar se mantinham uma capacidade de discriminar as empresas que lograriam êxito na concordata. Como ferramental estatístico, é utilizada a Análise Discriminante, técnica de análise multivariada, que busca classificar os dados em dois grupos específicos. Neste trabalho, foram definidos como grupo de empresas solventes e grupo de empresas insolventes. Verificou-se que as premissas para utilização da técnica estatística de Análise Discriminante podem limitar, não invalidar, esses modelos. Há necessidade de se avaliarem os dados das amostras para se verificar se é possível ou não o uso da técnica de Análise Discriminante, além do que necessitam recorrentemente, de ser recalculados. Essa limitação reduziu-se quando se utilizaram os modelos em conjunto ou integrados, como verificado nos testes realizados. Outra técnica utilizada nesse estudo foi a de se gerar um modelo que congregue os melhores indicadores dos modelos analisados, obtendo-se um modelo de previsão, que pode ser considerado híbrido ou misto. Esse modelo foi testado quanto à sua capacidade de avaliar se as empresas concluiriam suas concordatas e, também, em sua capacidade de discriminar as empresas nos dois grupos anteriormente descritos (Solventes e Insolventes), ambos formados por empresas situadas em Belo Horizonte, Betim e Contagem. Como ressaltado, existem limitações ao uso desses modelos, que se iniciam pela própria ferramenta da Análise Discriminante. Porém, a sua utilização pode tornar mais objetiva a decisão de se conceder ou não a Concordata a uma empresa, ou, até mesmo, uma linha de crédito especial para cliente de um fornecedor ou de uma instituição bancária que se encontre nessa situação. Portanto, verificou-se ser possível, através das demonstrações contábeis das empresas objeto do estudo, a previsão da tendência de solvência ou insolvência daquelas, avaliando-se se lograriam êxito com a concordata. / This study is a retrospective analysis of models developed in Brazil with respect to the study of forecasting company insolvency, aimed at evaluating the application of quantitative methods to the financial analysis of financial statements. Evaluating the going-concern of companies is considered relevant. If facts can be identified indicating the opposite, the use of forecasting models is important what the decision on the extension of credit is concerned, not only in the field of financial intermediation, realized by banks, but also in the field of commercial transactions between suppliers and clients. From this decision, inferences can be made about the evaluation of whether a composition of debt will be conceded to a company, in which the models mentioned above will serve as tools for analyzing the company’s capacity to fulfill the composition agreement, an issue that is dealt with in this research. By means of the application of those models to a sample of companies that had applied for composition of debt, it could be evaluated whether the models maintained their capacity to distinguish the companies that were successful in the composition of debt. As a statistical tool, the Discriminant Analysis is used. This is a multivariate analysis technique that seeks to classify the data in two specific groups. In this study, they were defined as solvent companies group and insolvent companies group. It was verified that the premises for using the statistical technique of Discriminant Analysis can limit, but not invalidate these models. The data of the samples need to be assessed in order to verify whether it is possible or not to use the Discriminant Analysis technique. In addition, they recurrently need to be recalculated. This limitation was reduced when the models were used together or in an integrated way, as verified in the accomplished tests. Another technique used in this study was the creation of a model that unites the best indicators of the models that were analyzed, obtaining a forecasting model, which can be considered a hybrid or mixed. This model was tested for its capacity to evaluate whether the companies would conclude the composition of debt as well as its capacity to discriminate the companies in the two groups previously described (Solvent and Insolvent), both of which consist of companies located in Belo Horizonte, Betim and Contagem. As highlighted, the use of these models is limited, starting with the Discriminant Analysis tool itself. Nevertheless, their utilization can make the decision on the concession of debt composition to a company more objective, or even the decision on extending a special credit line to the customer of a supplier or to the client of a bank who finds himself in this situation. Therefore, it was confirmed that the analysis of the financial statements of the firms included in this study permits to forecast the possibility to determine the solvency or insolvency trend of the firms, as well as to assess their eventual success with the concordat.

This thesis deals with the discharge of individuals in the Czech legal environment that is regulated by Act No. 182/2006 Coll. Insolvency Act. The aim is to show the course of insolvency proceedings with a focus on discharge of individuals and then make comparisons with the law of bankruptcy proceedings in the United States and Spain. Finally the real example of a specific individual discharge is shown.

This thesis is concerned how people can handle with their finances with a focus on the use of credit products, debts and the potential impact of debts. Consequences of default are efforts of creditors to get money back, whether through specialized companies or judicial executor. The thesis deals with enforcement proceedings and then with insolvency proceedings. So what are possible solutions of debtor's situation if debtor is unable to pay his obligations. Bankruptcy and debt relief is described. There is also a survey that examines people's attitudes to manage their money, to advertisement for credits, whether people borrow money and have repayment problems. In conclusion there is recommendation how to repay your debts, how to deal with debt responsibility, and there is also a very discussed topic about financial literacy.

The work "Financial Analysis of companies undergoing bankruptcy later" deals with the issue of bankruptcy debtor. It analyzes the situation where the company gets into financial distress and financial analysis examines indicators that best represent the financial situation and the impending decline. It continous with bankruptcy and insolvency of the debtor, and these two parts solves from both a legal and from an accounting perspective. Both parts are supplemented by short illustrative examples, which should help clarify emerging issues. In the practical part a three companies were selected, which are currently in bankruptcy proceedings. In these were applied selected indicators from the first chapter and last part describes various bankruptcy proceedings.

O presente trabalho visa a analisar aspectos específicos da microeconomia bancária no que se refere à relação entre banco e consumidor. Três diferentes abordagens são adotadas. No primeiro capítulo a abordagem é teórica. Um modelo de equilíbrio geral com incerteza é desenvolvido, com o objetivo de analisar a relação depositante banco e as características do equilíbrio dos contratos de depósito bancários. Questões como eficiência e concentração são analisadas, tanto em um contexto estático quanto na relação de longo prazo entre bancos e depositante. Os resultados sugerem contratos de equilíbrio com características contingentes ao espaço de contratos factíveis e uma relação entre esforço eficiente do banco e não comprometimento pleno do depositante na relação de longo prazo. A segunda parte do trabalho se concentra em analisar empiricamente a relação entre banco e tomador de recursos e tem como objetivo contribuir com avanços metodológicos para a decomposição do spread bancário no Brasil. Para tanto, estima-se uma função custo multiproduto para o setor bancário brasileiro e calcula-se, a partir dela, os preços de Aumann-Shapley dos diversos produtos oferecidos pelos bancos. Essa aplicação da teoria de alocação de custos conjuntos à firma bancária permite que se faça a alocação dos custos administrativos de forma mais precisa, melhorando a decomposição do spread no Brasil. Além disso, novos avanços são conseguidos em termos de precisão por meio da ampliação da amostra e portanto pela correção de um grave viés de seleção presente na abordagem original do Banco Central. A terceira - e última - parte do trabalho faz uma discussão institucional dos sistemas de resolução de insolvências coorporativas e da relação destes com a decisão do banco de emprestar e portanto com o funcionamento do mercado de crédito. A motivação foi a de analisar um aspecto específico da relação banco tomador com impactos diretos sobre preço e volume de empréstimos concedidos. Neste ponto, questões relacionadas a incentivos e eficiência emergem e são analisados tendo como pano de fundo a reforma do sistema legal de insolvência brasileiro, atualmente em curso. / The present work analyzes specific aspects of microeconomics of banking, concerning the relationship between financial intermediaries and non-financial agents. Three different approaches are adopted. In the first chapter the approach is theoretical. A model of general equilibrium with uncertainty is developed, analyzing the relationship between banks and depositors and the characteristics of the equilibrium deposit contracts. Efficiency and concentration issues are analyzed, in a static context and in a long-term relationship among banks and depositors. Results suggest that deposit contracts observed in equilibrium are contingent to the space of contract possibilities and that it exists a relationship between efficient effort exerted by the bank and no full commitment by depositors in a long term relationship. Chapter 2 makes an empirical analysis of the bank-borrower relationship, contributing with methodological improvements for the decomposition of banking spreads in Brazil. A multi-product cost function for the Brazilian banking industry is estimated and used to calculate the Aumann-Shapley prices for each of the defined banking products. That application of cost allocation to the banking firm allows a better allocation of administrative costs, improving on the original decomposition made by Brazilian Central Bank. Additionally, a more accurate decomposition results from the use of a larger sample and therefore the correction of a serious selection bias present in the original approach. The third chapter concentrates on an institutional discussion about insolvency resolution. The main motivation was the analysis of a specific aspect of the bank-borrower relationship and its impacts on price and volumes of loan concessions. At this point, incentives and efficiency issues emerge and are analyzed having the Brazilian legal system of insolvency reform, now in course, as a background.

Conventional wisdom decrees that in order for insurers to provide cover, they require capital. One of the many methods of calculating capital requirements of short-term insurers is the insolvency put option framework. This technique was originally introduced by Merton (1977). The general argument is that bankruptcy occurs when shareholders exercise a valuable put option. Indeed, the corporation was introduced to protect shareholders from, mainly contractual, liabilities of persons who trade with the corporation. The corporation thus introduced the idea of limited liability of shareholders or as is often called the corporate veil. However, if a company defaults on its debt then equity holders have decided to allow an embedded call option to expire unexercised. As a result shareholders will behave as if they in fact hold a call option, which creates a different incentive than that suggested by the insolvency put idea. This study examines the role of capital and the influence of the insolvency put option within a short-term insurer. Specifically, it is argued that capital is not the cornerstone of a short-term insurer. Moreover, using Brownian motion and Itō calculus as well as continuous time financial models a more complete mathematical description of an insurance company is articulated by explicitly taking the embedded equity call option into account.

Pour répondre à leur difficulté financière, les sociétés commerciales doivent mettre en place des mesures de financement en vue de surmonter les obstacles qu’elles rencontrent. La présente thèse ne porte uniquement que sur le droit du financement des sociétés commerciales en difficulté, sur la possibilité pour ces dernières d'assurer leur sauvetage/rebond dans un contexte financier difficile. Ces dernières disposent de solutions financières qui sont communes aux autres débiteurs. La société commerciale en difficulté est un des débiteurs concernés par les articles L620-1 et L631-2 du Code de commerce et peut donc bénéficier des mesures du droit des entreprises en difficulté qui sont négociées par le dirigeant et/ou son conseil ou bien imposées par le tribunal de la procédure en fonction du contexte. La structure sociale est également une personne juridique avec un régime juridique propre qui s’efface au bénéfice des dispositions du Livre VI du Code de commerce relatives aux procédures préventives et curatives du droit des entreprises en difficulté. C’est pourquoi il existe des outils de financement réservés uniquement aux sociétés commerciales en difficulté. Les mesures permettant de financer ou refinancer une société commerciale ont évolué et continuent d’évoluer pour s’adapter aux innovations juridiques tout en assurant le respect de tous les intérêts en présence / In order to solve their financial difficulties, trading companies need to put in place funding measures to overcome the obstacles they may face. The present thesis discuss about with the financing of trading companies in difficulty, the law applicable and the possibility for them to ensure their rescue/rebound in a difficult financial context. They have financial solutions that are common to other debtors. The distressed trading company is one of the debtors concerned by articles L620-1 and L631-2 of the Commercial code and can therefore benefit from the measures of the insolvency law which are negotiated by the manager and/or his council or imposed by the court depending on the context. The social structure is also a legal person with its own legal regime which is erased to the benefit of the provisions of the Commercial code relating to the preventive and curative proceedings of insolvency law. That is why there are financing tools reserved only for distressed commercial companies. The measures to finance or refinance a trading company have evolved and continue to evolve to adapt to legal innovations while ensuring respect for all interests in the presence

近年來，美國壽險公司由於過度投資在高風險的垃圾債券及不動產，造成 投資失敗，公司破產事件層出不窮，於是美國NAIC推出了一套根據公司投 資及業務風險為基礎的壽險業風險資本需求（Risk Based Capital）公式 ，以做為新的監理系統，期能振衰起弊，發揮保險監理上早期預警的功能 。本文除了一方面探討過去近年來導致美國壽險業喪失清償能力的原由， 最主要在對於這套新的監理制度，就其公式架構、組成內容及實際的運算 ，加以深入研討，並對於公式本身的相關問題來分析其假設上之合理性。 最後，以RBC 為藍本，對於我國當前有關資本及盈餘的規定，會計制度上 對於資產評價的缺失，及未來RBC 引進國內時，我國現行會計報表資訊揭 露的有關問題，予以分析，並提出個人的意見。正當我國壽險業發展日益 蓬勃的今天，隨著競爭的增加，其經營的風險實不容我們忽視，尤其先進 國家過去歷歷在目的教訓，及早建立一套有效的監理系統，以因應未來的 需要，實有其迫切與重要性在。回顧我國現有制度，不可諱言，需要努力 的地方仍然很多，亟需我們快馬加鞭，急起直追。