De acordo com um ramo da literatura de comércio internacional, aumento expressivo nos preços de recursos naturais pode causar forte crescimento na receita de exportação desses bens, que causaria apreciação da taxa real de câmbio e perda de competitividade das exportações e da produção de bens manufaturados. Em casos extremos, haveria encolhimento desse setor, efeito esse denominado desindustrialização. Esse conjunto de efeitos é comumente denominado doença holandesa. A apreciação da taxa de câmbio no Brasil, experimentada a partir de 2003, gerou debate entre economistas, acadêmicos ou não, a respeito da possível ocorrência de sintomas da doença holandesa no Brasil. A maior parte desses trabalhos e opiniões se amparou em observações dos dados para tomar posição a favor ou contra a ocorrência do fenômeno, sem aparente consenso. Este trabalho busca testar a hipótese do país ter apresentado sintomas da doença holandesa no período de 1999 a 2008 e contribuir com a literatura através do emprego de técnicas econométricas tradicionalmente observadas em trabalhos sobre o tema, abordagem essa distinta e inédita para o caso brasileiro. A estimação de relações de cointegração (VECM) mostrou ligação positiva entre preços de commodities e a taxa real de câmbio no Brasil, principalmente a partir de 2003, porém não corroborou a relação negativa entre os mesmos e exportações e produção de bens manufaturados que seria necessária na ocorrência da doença holandesa. O emprego da equação de gravitação para analisar a ligação entre esses preços e as exportações de bens manufaturados em um painel de 172 países tampouco encontrou indícios da ocorrência desse fenômeno. Concluiu-se, portanto, que entre 1999 e 2008 não há evidências indicativas de que o Brasil tenha apresentado os sintomas da doença holandesa. / According to a branch of the literature on international trade, a boom in the price of natural resources could lead to a surge in revenues with the exports of such goods, which would appreciate the real exchange rate and cause a loss of competitiveness in exports and production of manufactured goods. In extreme cases, the manufacturing sector could shrink, thus amounting to a phenomenon known as deindustrialization. The whole of those effects is commonly referred to as Dutch Disease. The appreciation of the exchange rate in Brazil, experimented from 2003 onwards, generated a debate among economists, both in and out of the academy, concerning the possibility of the symptoms of the Dutch Disease being observed in Brazil. The majority of such works and opinions relied upon the observation of economic data in order to come to a conclusion either in favor or against the phenomenon, without clear consensus. This work aims to test the hypothesis of the country having presented the symptoms of the Dutch Disease between 1999 and 2008 and to contribute with the literature through the employment of econometric techniques commonly observed in works dealing on the theme, a distinct and novel approach for the Brazilian case. The estimation of cointegration relations (VECM) showed a positive connection between commodity prices and the real exchange rate in Brazil, mainly from 2003 onwards, but failed to find the negative relationship between those prices and exports or production of manufactured goods that would be required in the occurrence of the Dutch Disease. The employment of the gravity equation in order to analyze the connection between the price of commodities and exports using a panel of 172 countries also failed to present evidence of the phenomenon. It was concluded that between 1999 and 2008 there is no indication that Brazil presented the symptoms of the Dutch Disease.

L'objectif principal des autorités en Afrique subsaharienne est de créer une croissance durable en raison des récents ralentissements de la croissance. Une croissance durable pourrait être réalisée en réhabilitant les vulnérabilités internes et externes afin d'éviter les perturbations macroéconomiques. En Afrique subsaharienne, les vulnérabilités internes proviennent de la mauvaise gouvernance, des choix inefficaces des politiques économiques et d'autres facteurs tels que les guerres civiles. Leurs vulnérabilités externes sont liées à leurs forte dette et dépendance commerciale. Par conséquent, cette thèse se concentre sur l'atténuation des deux vulnérabilités. Le premier chapitre propose une comparaison de la résilience de deux politiques monétaires à plusieurs types de chocs. On considère le ciblage de l'inflation au Ghana et en Afrique du Sud et la caisse d'émission dans l'UEMOA tout en simulant des chocs sur le modèle FPAS. Le deuxième chapitre se concentre sur l'objectif de la résolution des vulnérabilités externes. On propose une stratégie d'ancrage du régime de change nominal et réel pour stabiliser le coût de la dette et promouvoir la compétitivité commerciale. On résout un modèle d'équilibre général pour trouver ses principaux déterminants tout en sauvegardant nos résultats en utilisant les estimations SVAR et MS-VAR. Ainsi, le troisième chapitre résout les vulnérabilités internes. On teste le rôle d'une politique monétaire régie par la politique fiscal et l'existence d'un grand taux de change parallèle dans la propagation d'une inflation élevée et chronique, dans un contexte de désordre civil en estimant un SVAR et un VECM dans l'état fragile du Soudan. / Sub-Saharan African policy makers’ main objective is to create sustainable growth as a result of the recent downturns of growth. Sustainable growth could be achieved by remediating both internal and external vulnerabilities to avoid macroeconomic disruption. In Sub-Saharan Africa, internal vulnerabilities arise from bad governance and institutions, inefficient choices of economic policies and other factors such as civil wars. As for external vulnerabilities, it is related to their balance of payment weaknesses due to their high debt and high trade dependency (high import to GDP level with low export diversification).Therefore, this thesis focus on alleviating both vulnerabilities.The first chapter proposes a comparison of two monetary policies’ resilience to several types of shocks. We consider inflation targeting in Ghana and South Africa and currency board in WAEMU countries while simulating shocks using FPAS model.The second chapter focuses on the objective of solving external vulnerabilities. We propose a policy-mix strategy where Sub-Saharan African countries undertake simultaneously a nominal and real anchor to stabilise the cost of debt and promote trade competitiveness. We propose a general equilibrium model to find its main determinants while backing up our findings using SVAR and MS-VAR estimations.The third chapter’s objective is solving internal vulnerabilities. We test simultaneous the role of a monetary policy governed by the fiscal policy and the existence of a large parallel exchange rate in propagating a high and chronic inflation, in a context of civil disorder. To do so we estimate an SVAR and a VECM model in a fragile state that is Sudan.

Mexico, one of the world’s largest economies and an increasingly relevant actor in international affairs, is at a crucial point in defining its future policy course. Given the uncertainty surrounding the global economy, as well as the political situation in Mexico, it is important to have a clear vision for policy going forward. This thesis offers a foundation for a national economic strategy with a long-term vision, upon which future administrations can build as appropriate to maximize on the country’s economic potential. The task is undertaken through a three-part approach. First, a thorough and analytical overview of the country’s economic history provides context and lessons from which to learn. Second, key economic issues to be addressed are identified through an evaluation of the current context and economic outlook. Finally, an evaluation of successful policy implementation, domestically and abroad, provides a basis that can be adapted to address the issues identified as they affect Mexico. The result is a series of six policy recommendations along two axes aimed at tackling the aforementioned key issues. These recommendations are by no means exhaustive, nor are they meant to be. The expectation is that they may serve to align national policy to global economic trends, underlying a plausible strategy to realize Mexico’s productive potential.

Ziel dieser Dissertation ist es, auf Grund der Änderungen der wirtschaftspolitischen Struktur des Wirtschafts-und Finanzsystems, die Ursachen warum in den letzten Jahren manche Schwellenländer Staatsfonds gründen bzw. aufbauen, zu verstehen. Der Ausbreitungsprozess ist eine direkte Folge der massiven Anhäufung von Reserven des letzten Jahrzehnt. Dies konnte man in vielen Schwellenländern, insbesondere bei Ölexporteure und asiatischen Ländern, die groβe Handelsüberschüsse mit den Vereinigten Staaten und andere Entwicklungsländern registrierten, beobachten. Um das Defizit der Handelsbilanz zu decken, haben die Reserven in diesen Ländern einen exzessiven Niveau erreicht. Den Verwaltern dieser Reserven wurde daher die Gelegenheit gegeben höchstmögliche Gewinne zu erzielen. Wichtige, voneinander abhängige Faktoren wurden analisiert, um an dieses Ziel näher zu kommen, wie (i) in den 80er Jahren initiierten wirtschaftlichen und finanziellen Liberalisierungsprozess; (ii) die immer wichtigere Rolle, die die Finanzmärkte in der globalen Ökonomie spielen; (iii) das Hervortreten von wichtigen Schwellenländern; (iv) die wachsende, internationale Missverhältnisse und die daraufhin mögliche Anpassungsmechanismen; und (v) Kapitalanhäufungen, die zum Ausbreitungsprozess von Staatsfonds führten. Es wird darauf hingewiesen, dass die oben erwähnten Faktoren nicht Zielobjekte dieser Dissertation darstellen, jedoch sich als grundlegende Elemente zusammensetzen, um Staatsfonds und Hauptursachen des jetzigen Ausbreitungsprozess im Zusammenhang zu verstehen. Daher ist es wichtig, durch einen generellen Standpunkt, die Geschichte, Ziele, Dimensionen, Wachstumsrate und Auswirkungen der Staatsfonds, zu verstehen. Diese Verständnisse könnten gemeinsam mit einer Zusammenstellung von politischen prinzipien, sowohl für Fonds als auch für Investitionsempfänger, die Öffnung für Auslandskapital erhalten und weltweit finanzielle Stabilität fördern. Ursprünglich am Ende des kalten Krieges erschienen und Resultat der Anpassungen des internationalen Wirtschaftssystems, ist die Verbreitung der Staatsfonds eine relativ innovative und neue Bewegung. Als wissenschaftliches Thema handelt es sich hierbei noch um ein Grenzthema, was weitere Untersuchungen dagegen herausfordernd und relevant macht. / O objetivo desta dissertação é entender, com base nas alterações da estrutura econômica e política do sistema econômico e financeiro internacional, os motivos que levaram alguns países emergentes, a criarem e/ou aprofundarem os fundos soberanos de riqueza nos últimos anos. O processo de proliferação é conseqüência direta da massiva acumulação de reservas que ocorreu na última década. Essa acumulação se deu em muitas economias emergentes, especialmente nos países produtores de petróleo e países asiáticos, que apresentavam grandes superávits comerciais com os EUA e outros países em desenvolvimento. Nesses países, as reservas alcançaram níveis além do necessário para cobrir o balanço de pagamentos, fornecendo uma oportunidade para que os administradores dessas reservas maximizassem os retornos. Assim, de forma a alcançar esse objetivo, foram analisados importantes fatores interdependentes e correlacionados, tais como (i) a liberalização econômica e financeira a partir da década de 1980; (ii) o processo de financeirização da economia mundial; (iii) a emergência de importantes economias em desenvolvimento; (iv) os crescentes desequilíbrios internacionais e, conseqüentemente, os possíveis mecanismos de ajuste; e (v) o acúmulo de capitais que levou ao processo de proliferação dos fundos soberanos de riqueza. Ressalta-se que os fatores acima mencionados não são objeto de análise específica da dissertação, mas constituem elementos essenciais que compõem o contexto para o entendimento próprio dos fundos soberanos e das principais causas do atual processo de proliferação. Dessa forma, fazse necessário entender, sob um ponto de vista mais geral a história, os objetivos, a dimensão, o ritmo de crescimento e as implicações sistêmicas dos fundos soberanos de riqueza. Tal entendimento, juntamente com um conjunto de princípios políticos tanto para esses fundos como para os países receptores desses investimentos, poderia ajudar a preservar a abertura ao capital estrangeiro e promover a estabilidade financeira por todo o mundo. A proliferação dos fundos soberanos de riqueza é um movimento recente e de certa forma inovador, resultante das adaptações do sistema econômico internacional, surgido com o final da Guerra Fria. Isso significa que é um tema cujas reflexões e interpretações ainda não estão totalmente consolidadas, fato que cria tanto obstáculos ao seu estudo apropriado, mas também um desafio de se trabalhar com um tema de fronteira. / This thesis aims at examining, within the framework of the recent changes in the international political and economic systems, the reasons that led some emergent countries to create and/or enlarge their sovereign wealth funds. Such enlarging springs from the massive capital accumulation of the past decade which took place on a number of emerging countries, notably oil exporters and Asian economies - which achieved large trade surplus in their deals with the USA and other developing countries. In these countries, reserves greatly surpassed the amount needed for covering any possibility of trade balance deficit, allowing governments to maximize their returns. In order to examine this scenario, this thesis examines a number of its key, inter-related factors, such as: (i) the process of economic and financial liberalization started in the 80's; (ii) the increasingly important role played by the financial markets in global economy; (iii) the growing international imbalances and some possible mechanisms to fix them; (iv) the capital accumulation process which led to the spreading of sovereign wealth funds. Such factors do not constitute any kind of privileged object of this analysis but are listed as crucial elements to understand sovereign wealth funds and the causes of their sharp increase over the recent years. In fact, understanding these funds could contribute - if coupled with a set of investment policies including investors, as well - to preserve capital flows and stabilize world economy. The proliferation of sovereign wealth funds is a recent, innovative movement, which emerged from the economic adjusts world economy underwent after the Cold War. As an academic theme, it is still a frontier topic, a fact that makes its study more challenging and relevant.

This dissertation is composed of three essays at the intersection of international trade and finance. In the first chapter, I measure exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for value-added exports, where intermediate input requires sharing among countries in a back-and-forth manner for producing a single final product. I derive an estimating equation for ERPT and value-added trade following a partial equilibrium model, which also leads to decomposition of the trade elasticity into the own price effect and the price index effects. From the empirical estimation, I find that ignoring the value-added trade will cause a systematic upward bias in the estimation of ERPT. I also find that there exists substantial heterogeneity in pass-through rates across sectors: sectors with high-integration into global markets functions with a lower rate of exchange in comparison to sectors with less integration. The second essay focuses on a specific market, where I examine the relationship between product attributes and ERPT. This paper estimates the ERPT by using good-level daily data on wholesale prices of imported agricultural products, where the identification is achieved by using daily data on the domestic inflation rate. The results of standard empirical analyses are in line with existing studies that employ lower frequencies of data by showing evidence for incomplete daily ERPT of about 5 percent. The key innovation is achieved when nonlinearities in ERPT are considered, where ERPT is doubled to about 10 percent when daily nominal exchange rate changes are above 0.55 percent, daily frequencies of price change are above 3.12 percent, the storage life of a product is above 10 weeks, and for the non-zero price changes, the ERPT is complete. In the final essay, I focus on the firms’ export pricing strategy: pricing-to-market strategy. To achieve this, I introduce a partial equilibrium model of firm’s pricing strategy, where the market share of a firm plays an important role in the determination of markup. The empirical estimation is that markup ranges from 1.25 to 1.5 across years and 1.25 to 51.23 across firms. I also find that markups come back to their average level within 30 to 60 days of the initial date.

ESSAY 1We examine the effect of governance environment on the composition of a country's external capital structure, specifically foreign equity investment. In addition to the absolute quality of the host country's governance environment, we consider the host country's governance quality relative to that of the source (investor) country. Unlike previous studies, which utilize country totals, we examine foreign investment positions between pairs of individual countries. Our sample includes 3,891 bilateral investment positions among 49 source countries and 69 host countries for years 2009 through 2011. We find that relative governance, rather than absolute governance, plays a role in foreign investment. Specifically, a host country with lower governance quality relative to the source country (a greater difference) attracts less FDI as a share of foreign equity investment. Our results suggest that prior studies, which identified absolute governance as a significant factor, were evaluating an incomplete picture. When the focus is solely on the host country, the policy prescription appears rather straightforward--all countries should pursue higher governance quality to attract more foreign investment from all sources. We challenge this notion by showing that: a) different source countries evaluate host-country governance differently; and b) this evaluation is influenced by the difference between the governance environments of the two countries. ESSAY 2Highly publicized governance failures in recent years have renewed research efforts to investigate the consequences of specific governance mechanisms. A better understanding of executive compensation contracts, specifically golden parachutes, is especially critical given their notorious status in the corporate governance debate. Instead of examining the explicit incentive role of golden parachutes (GPs) in influencing managerial behavior, we study their role as a tool for screening and recruiting reputable CEOs in a situation where recruitment would otherwise be difficult--severe financial distress that eventually leads to Chapter 11 bankruptcy. If GPs enable distressed firms to recruit reputable CEOs, there should be an observable link between the presence of GPs in employment contracts for newly hired CEOs and value-preserving firm outcomes. For our sample of firms, all of which filed for bankruptcy, this can be measured by the outcome of the bankruptcy proceedings, specifically the avoidance of liquidation. Thus, we hypothesize a negative relationship between the presence of GPs for newly hired CEOs and the probability of liquidation in bankruptcy. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that firms led by newly hired CEOs with GPs are liquidated less often than other firms. This suggests that, regardless of their efficacy as corporate governance mechanisms, GPs can create value for shareholders.

Recent studies on the economic status of women in Miami-Dade County (MDC) reveal an alarming rate of economic insecurity and significant obstacles for women to achieve economic security. Consistent barriers to women’s economic security affect not only the health and wellbeing of women and their families, but also economic prospects for the community. A key study reveals in Miami-Dade County, “Thirty-nine percent of single female-headed families with at least one child are living at or below the federal poverty level” and “over half of working women do not earn adequate income to cover their basic necessities” (Brion 2009, 1). Moreover, conventional measures of poverty do not adequately capture women’s struggles to support themselves and their families, nor do they document the numbers of women seeking basic self-sufficiency. Even though there is lack of accurate data on women in the county, which is a critical problem, there is also a dearth of social science research on existing efforts to enhance women’s economic security in Miami-Dade County. My research contributes to closing the information gap by examining the characteristics and strategies of women-led community development organizations (CDOs) in MDC, working to address women’s economic insecurity. The research is informed by a framework developed by Marilyn Gittell, who pioneered an approach to study women-led CDOs in the United States. On the basis of research in nine U.S. cities, she concluded that women-led groups increased community participation and “by creating community networks and civic action, they represent a model for community development efforts” (Gittell, et al. 2000, 123). My study documents the strategies and networks of women-led CDOs in MDC that prioritize women’s economic security. Their strategies are especially important during these times of economic recession and government reductions in funding towards social services. The focus of the research is women-led CDOs that work to improve social services access, economic opportunity, civic participation and capacity, and women’s rights. Although many women-led CDOs prioritize building social infrastructures that promote change, inequalities in economic and political status for women without economic security remain a challenge (Young 2004). My research supports previous studies by Gittell, et al., finding that women-led CDOs in Miami-Dade County have key characteristics of a model of community development efforts that use networking and collaboration to strengthen their broad, integrated approach. The resulting community partnerships, coupled with participation by constituents in the development process, build a foundation to influence policy decisions for social change. In addition, my findings show that women-led CDOs in Miami-Dade County have a major focus on alleviating poverty and economic insecurity, particularly that of women. Finally, it was found that a majority of the five organizations network transnationally, using lessons learned to inform their work of expanding the agency of their constituents and placing the economic empowerment of women as central in the process of family and community development.

<p>Maritime shipping is the most important mode of transportation for international trade. About 70 to 80 percent of the value traded worldwide moves by sea [1]. An inherent problem in global shipping markets is that non-competitive pricing behavior among carriers is widely believed to raise the cost of freight [2]–[5]. It is also likely that the effects of this problem on international trade flows and welfare are magnified by restricted cabotage reservation schemes. Historically, countries have implemented such policies to prohibit foreign competition in domestic shipping markets. The effects of protection on international goods trade are reasonably well understood. The effects of protection on service trade are less straight-forward. Issues of quality become more important, but they are challenging to measure. Moreover, most of these cabotage reservation schemes ban service imports. Therefore, this makes it complicated to compare domestic and foreign services in the same market, given that service activities are place-specific. </p> <p><br></p> <p>In order to better understand the effect of non-competitive pricing behavior in global shipping markets on international trade flows and the incidence of cabotage reservation schemes in shipping markets, I develop three essays. In the first Essay I focus on quantifying the economic effects of non-competitive pricing behavior in the maritime shipping industry on (1) freight costs, (2) international trade flows, and (3) economic welfare. The research question that I answer is: what share of observed shipping freight charges is attributable to non-competitive pricing behavior in maritime shipping markets? I estimate the maritime shipping mark-ups applying the method of Atkin and Donaldson [6] to U.S. Census import data of shipments moved by sea during the period 2002-2017. I find that freight mark-ups account for approximately one-third of total freight charges in U.S. imports. Carriers’ mark-ups thus represent an equivalent ad valorem tariff of 1.4-2.6 percent. U.S. imports of differentiated products would be 4.2 to 11.6 percent higher if these mark-ups were eliminated. The cost of these mark-ups in terms of economic welfare for U.S. consumers represents an annual reduction of 0.1-0.2 percent of their real income. Carriers also charge higher maritime shipping mark-ups (per kg.) to high-value products, products with a lower elasticity of substitution, and products with higher import tariffs. Imported products from developing countries or from distant countries to the U.S. are also charged with larger tariff equivalent mark-ups.  </p> <p><br></p> <p>In the second Essay I estimate the economic burden placed on Puerto Rico by the Jones Act. Using Lloyd’s List Intelligence (LLI) data to document the supply of shipping services in the U.S. -Puerto Rico shipping market, I find that the Jones Act fleet serving Puerto Rico contains no ships designed for the purpose of moving general cargo or bulk commodities. I then evaluate how this lack of supply of shipping services is a burden on imports of goods that would normally travel by ships of those kinds, modelling Puerto Rico’s import demand in a gravity framework. This exercise indicates that Puerto Rico’s demand for final goods exhibits a greater substitution towards non-U.S. sources among products that tend a) to be shipped by sea, b) to be physically heavy, and c) not to be moved in containers. I then estimate a structural gravity model to quantify the tariff-equivalent trade costs the Jones Act imposes on U.S. shipments. This model yields that the Jones Act represents a tariff equivalent of 30.6 percent on average across products. Finally, I use these estimates to calculate the compensating variation of Jones Act removal. I find that the cost of final expenditure in Puerto Rico would be $1.4 billion (about 1.3 percent) lower per year without the Jones Act. </p> <p><br></p> <p>Finally, in the third Essay I investigate what specifically explains the estimated change in Puerto Rico’s import demand for U.S. products due to the Jones Act. I use detailed data of vessels’ ports-of-call in the Caribbean from LLI to document issues of service quality and availability in maritime shipping services between the U.S. and Puerto Rico during the period 2004-2020, calculating metrics for some quality dimensions (e.g., vessels age, shipping capacity, shipping frequency and more). I also evaluate market conditions such as the concentration level in the market of carriers and shipyard building companies in order to examine the presumed incidence in shipping freight costs. Additionally, I use Puerto Rico’s import data from the Instituto de Estadísticas de Puerto Rico (IEPR) to evaluate how much the Jones Act restrictions affect the mode choice decisions for shipping products between U.S. mainland and Puerto Rico. The research question that I try to answer is: what is the level and evolution of the quality of shipping services provided by Jones Act-compliant vessels in the U.S.-Puerto Rico shipping market? </p>

Risikopolitischer Investitionsschutz nimmt zur Förderung von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen (ADI) in Entwicklungsländern eine wichtige Funktion ein. Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert unterschiedliche Investitionsschutzinstrumente im internationalen Kapitalverkehr. Hierbei werden Schwerpunkte auf öffentliche Investitionsgarantien und -versicherungen gelegt, wobei das Instrumentarium der Multilateralen Investitions-Garantie-Agentur (MIGA) als Institution der Weltbankgruppe sowie das der Bundesrepublik Deutschland aufgrund ihrer führenden Stellungen als vorrangige Analysegegenstände dienen. Nach einer fundierten Darstellung der Versicherungssysteme werden diese miteinander verglichen. Ferner werden die MIGA und die Investitionsgarantien des Bundes hinsichtlich ihrer Mehrwerte und Grenzen untersucht. Unter Einbeziehung auch kritischer Aspekte zeigt die Arbeit Handlungsperspektive für die Versicherungssysteme auf, um ADI in Entwicklungsländern verstärkt zu fördern.

<p dir="ltr">This dissertation consists of three chapters on economic topics related to spatial, macro, and international economics. In the first chapter, I develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with overlapping generation in which heterogeneous individuals accumulate human capital and move across states. Calibrated to the 2000 U.S. economy, the model illustrates how variations in education efficiency lead to substantial cross-state income disparities and shows that internal migration can notably boost output in states with lower education efficiencies. Applying the calibrated model to analyze the Obama Administration's Race to the Top initiative finds that the initiative increased the U.S. GDP, benefiting the grant-winning states and their neighbors. Strategic reallocation of education grants could further increase national GDP gains without necessarily worsening state income disparities.</p><p dir="ltr">The second chapter of this dissertation is coauthored with Dr. Soojin Kim and Dr. Chong Xiang. We investigate how the China shock affects workers’ health through optimal health investment decisions. We empirically estimate the elasticity of import penetration per worker on future good health probability. In our quantitative evaluation of the China shock, we find that there is little (substantial) change in the probability of future good health of employed workers whose health is initially bad (good), in line with our empirical estimates. In our counterfactuals, we find that universal health insurance would have remedied most of the adverse health effects from the China shock, with large heterogeneity across sickness shocks and across commuting zones with varying degrees of exposure to import penetration.</p><p dir="ltr">The last chapter of this dissertation is coauthored with Dr. Seungyub Han, using regional level data of South Korea. We analyze the effect of conventional land-use restrictions in existing cities as well as the impact of building new cities on undeveloped rural regions, motivated by the South Korean government's 2nd New Town Project (NTP). We estimate the effect of such policies on the aggregate and regional economies, considering both the efficiency gain from the resource reallocation and externalities from regional decline. Our quantification suggests that the NTP promoted economic growth cost-effectively, as it permanently increased the steady state real GDP flow for a one-time building cost. However, it exacerbated regional decline by significantly decreasing the overall rural population.</p>