Esta dissertação analisa a existência de oportunidades de obtenção de ganhos econômicos através da adoção de estratégias de investimento que explorem o viés de sobre-reação de preços no mercado de ações brasileiro no período de 1995 a 1998. De forma complementar, busca identificar se os resultados são persistentes a alterações do indicador de retorno utilizado, período de tempo da análise, método de acumulação de retornos e número de ativos da carteira. Os indicadores de retorno utilizados foram: retorno total, excesso de retorno de mercado e retorno ajustado ao risco, para períodos mensais, trimestrais, semestrais, anuais e bianuais. Utilizou-se a acumulação aritmética e composta, bem como diferentes quantidades de ações (fixas de 5 e 10 ações e variável de 5% e 10% da carteira total). Os instrumentos utilizados para os testes estatísticos de associação foram o teste de diferença de médias para duas amostras independentes, o teste de proporções, além do coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. A amostra compreendeu todas as ações existentes no período, cujos dados estavam disponíveis no banco de dados Economática. Os resultados demonstraram que existe a oportunidade de se obter ganhos no curto prazo, pois a estratégia contrária de investimento apresentou ganhos estatisticamente significantes para os períodos mensal e trimestral. / This dissertation analyzes the possibility of obtaining gains by adopting contrarian investments policy in the Brazilian Stock Market during the period from 1995 to 2003, in order to prove the existence of the overreaction bias in the investors? behavior. As a complementary objective, it was explored whether the strategy performance depends upon the measure employed to address performance, time period, cumulating returns method or number of securities in the portfolios. The research has involved different measures of performance: total return, market excess return and risk-adjusted return for different time horizons: monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually and biannually. It was computed two methods for cumulating returns, arithmetic and buy-and-hold, and also various quantitites of securities in each portfolio. The statistical procedures used to measure the degree of association were: difference of sample means test, proportions test and Spearman?s correlation coefficients. The sample included all stocks listed in Bovespa, with available data in the Economática database. Results show that there is an opportunity to gain in the short-time horizon, once the contrarian investment strategy presented statistically significant gains for monthly and quarterly periods.

The efficient portfolios for the period 1993 – 2010 based on IPD data have a major portfolio weight in residential properties in the three largest regions Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo. The portfolio with the highest risk adjusted return (measured as the highest Sharpe-ratio) combines a large portfolio weight in residential properties with a small weight in industrial properties. During the time period of 2005 – 2010 a majority of the listed real estate companies held a real estate portfolio far below the efficient frontier based on the corresponding IPD data. These companies can increase their total return without taking on any more risk by using the concept of diversification. When including all available diversification categories two out of seven companies can be said to have an efficient real estate portfolio. When we excluded the outperforming residential asset class, however, none of the companies’ portfolios were in fact efficient. The real estate market is inefficient and thus results in the IPD data being less useful as it is based on transactions occurring in this inefficient market. Investors can, in this market, easily find properties with another risk and return profile than what IPD indicates is the market risk and return for a particular property type in a certain region. The inefficiency of the market, together with the IPD data being less useful, thus makes it difficult for the companies to focus on diversification in their investment strategy. Moreover, there are several reasons that explain the discrepancy between the actually held listed real estate portfolios and the optimal portfolio based on IPD data. Since each property is heterogeneous and possesses unique risks, investors are not able to accurately quantify the risk of each investment and thus rely more on their gut feeling. This also results in investors focusing on single investment opportunities rather than looking at all investments from a portfolio perspective.

This paper investigates whether the Dogs of the Dow (or “Dow Dogs”) investment strategy is applicable to the Swedish stock market during the period 1996-2015. The strategy uses dividend yield as a way to identify undervalued stocks. Likely explanations to the strategy’s performance are contrasted between the Overreaction Hypothesis from the field of behavioral finance and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) from financial economics. The paper follows the original method formed by John Slatter, but is however extended by adding adjustments for risk, transaction costs and taxes to reflect a more realistic market setting. Our empirical findings suggest that the Dow Dogs strategy barely beats the market by 0.02 Sharpe ratio unit points. The strategy’s performance may be rather unimpressive, but it is interesting to acknowledge that the portfolio performed best during the market’s worst downturns. To conclude, our results lack statistical significance and we cannot reject the null hypothesis of no abnormal returns.

Cette thèse étudie spécifiquement la stratégie d'investissement des fonds d'investissement en microfinance à partir des données contextuelles, en utilisant une approche d'analyse de contenu qualitative. Information écrite de 84 sites de fonds de la microfinance a été utilisé comme sources secondaires. La principale question de recherche est "comment sont les stratégies d'investissement des fonds de microfinance conçus ? " Cette étude examine uniquement les informations que les fonds d'investissement en microfinance sont prêts à informer aux parties concernées au sujet de leur point de vue et les conditions d'investissement en microfinance, et la portée ne s'étend pas aux investisseurs et aux institutions de microfinance aspects. Il se trouve la stratégie d'investissement du fonds est conçu en incluant un certain nombre d' éléments spécifiques tels que les objectifs d'investissement, les critères de choix des investissements, les secteurs d'investissement , des instruments d'investissement et de leurs modalités, la structure de financement, la répartition géographique , le risque , le rendement , la couverture , effet de levier, les stratégies de sortie , et les procédures de sélection des investissements . Les conclusions de l'étude suggèrent les recherches futures utilisant des sources de données plus larges, en particulier d'examiner les investisseurs et les micro côtés de l'institution , afin d'obtenir une stratégie d'investissement efficace qui est bien adapté aux préférences de toutes les parties concernées . Par la suite, une évaluation de l'impact de cette stratégie sur la décision d'investissement devrait également être étudiée. / This thesis specifically investigates the investment strategy of microfinance investment funds from contextual data, employing a qualitative content analysis approach. Written information from 84 microfinance fund websites has been used as secondary sources, in order to search for the particular components contributing to the formulation of a well-designed investment strategy, and to answer to the main research question of this thesis. The main research question is “how are investment strategies of microfinance funds designed?” Ten sub-questions was raised after reviewing literature to answer this research question. This study examines only the information that microfinance investment funds are willing to inform to relevant parties regarding to their perspective and investment conditions in microfinance, and the scope does not extend to investors and microfinance institutions aspects. It is found the investment strategy of the fund is designed by including of a number of specific components such as investment objectives, selection criteria for eligible investments, investment sectors, investment instruments and their terms, funding structure, geographical distribution, risk, return, hedging, leverage, exit strategies, and investment selection procedures. The study’s findings suggest future research employing broader data sources, in particular to examine both investors and the microfinance institution sides, in order to obtain an effective investment strategy that is well matched with all relevant parties’ preferences. Subsequently, an evaluation of the impact of this strategy on investment decision should also be studied.

In my thesis I will try to compare the profitability of investment strategies based on the books of the eight famous financial gurus. I'll try to explain the process of selection of stocks to model portfolios, and describe its pitfalls and ideas hidden behind them.I will evaluate the performance of model portfolios under current market conditions based on observation of their development. I will try to clarify the trend observed in stocks moves not only in terms of the criteria of tested strategies, but also in terms of important company news that occurred at the time of observation. I will look on the chosen strategies from the short-term point of view, the observation will last several weeks. The outcome of my work should be my own scoring model for finding undervalued stocks based on chosen strategies and criteria that will appear to be successful within my own observation.

有鑑於投資活動對壽險公司的重要性，本研究的目的，主要是由壽險業的經營特性中，經由瞭解其各個別公司在不同的條件限制下，分析其投資策略與績效之狀況，以做為投資策略制定的參考。 　　本研究係針業台灣人壽保險業，以個案訪問的方式分析產業內廠商之投資策略。再輔以經營績效的次級資料，探討兩者的關係。投資策略的策略變數包括：投資目標、投資組合、影響投資的因素以及策略決策過程；經營績效的變數包括：聯合率、市場佔有率、保單繼續率、淨利率、投資收益率。 　　研究結論如下：在投資策略方面：1.在投資部門組織方面，資金規模會影響投資部門的人力，投資組合中比例較重的項目，人力的配置也較多。2.各家公司的投資目標不外乎是獲利性、安全性和變現性，至於公益性甚少被考量。3.保險公司的投資目標是在公司之財力及承擔風險能力範圍內，在法令之規定及政府監督下，獲取最高之長期稅後投資收益。4.各壽險公司的投資組合因投資目標的不同而異。5.影響投資策略因素可以分為投資環境、公司本身條件以及外在目標限制，壽險公司在決定投資決策之前必須先行對這些項目對評估。6.中小型的壽險公司因為投資業務較少，投資部門人員也比較精簡，所以在投資決策的過程充分發揮彈性。在投資策略與經營績效之研究方面：1.精確計算現金流量，根據資產、負債的性質做好資產負債管理，可以使壽險公司在兼顧流動性、安全性之下，求取最大的投資報酬率。2.投資高風險的投資工具，不一定能帶來高報酬，但是波動性一定很大，造成投資報酬率、淨利率時好時壞。3.資金規模不一定會影響投資報酬率，資金少的壽險公司也可以運用期間分析、資產負債管理的方法來降低風險、增加報酬率。4.正確的投資策略可以提高投資收益，進而增加淨利率。同時公司可以將獲利反映在保費上，使價格更具有競爭性，以提高新契約佔有率進一步擴大市場佔有率。保費的優惠也會留住舊客戶，提高保單繼續率。另一方面，公司可以增加資本支出，投資新的資源設備，對於提昇商品設計、精算、核保、理賠、服務和投資的品質有正面的幫助。行政效率的提高，可以使損失率、費用率下降。可見投資策略影響投資績效、投資績效會進一步影響經營績效。 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究範圍 3 第三節 論文結構 3 第四節 研究限制 4 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節 壽險業投資活動概述 5 第二節 壽險業投資特性 9 第三節 壽險業投資策略及影響因素 15 第四節 壽險業投資策略形成與投資決策程序 22 第五節 壽險業投資策略與經營績效 26 第三章 產業研究 31 第一節 產業介紹 31 第二節 產業分析 37 第三節 壽險業投資活動概況 56 第四章 研究設計 67 第一節 研究架構 67 第二節 研究方法 68 第三節 究研變數 69 第五章 壽險公司投資策略個案研究 73 第一節 甲人壽保險公司 73 第二節 乙人壽保險公司 80 第三節 丙人壽保險公司 87 第四節 丁人壽保險公司 95 第六章 個案分析與討論 102 第一節 投資策略比較 102 第二節 經營績效比較 109 第七章 結論與建議 117 第一節 研究結論 117 第二節 對壽險業的建議 119 第三節 對後續研究之建議 120 參考文獻 121

<p>Bakgrund: 4 av 5 svenskar äger aktier i någon form och det är många som är intresserade av att maximera sin avkastning. Det har lett till att det skrivs mycket i media om olika sätt att få avkastning högre än marknaden. Om det skulle vara möjligt att nå överavkastning är det en indikation på att marknaden inte är effektiv.</p><p>Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det historiskt har gått att nå en överavkastning genom tillämpa momentum- eller motsatstrategin på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Syftet är även att testa om den svenska aktiemarknaden har varit effektiv i svag form.</p><p>Genomförande: Momentumstrategin testades genom att portföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst relativ prisstyrka de senaste sex månaderna. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastning har sedan följts i sex månader. Motsatsstrategin testades genom att vinnarportföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst avkastning de senaste tre åren och förlorarportföljer formades för de med lägst avkastning. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastningar under de kommande tre åren jämfördes sedan med varandra.</p><p>Slutsats: Vi har kommit fram till att det har gått att nå en överavkastning med hjälp av momentumstrategin och att den har fungerat bäst i perioder av stabila uppgångar. Det har däremot inte gått att få överavkastning med hjälp av motsatsstrategin. Vi menar att resultatet beror på att marknaden underreagerar. Därmed kan vi säga att den svenska aktiemarknaden under den undersöka tidsperioden inte har varit effektiv i svag form.</p> / <p>Background: 4 out of 5 Swedes own stocks in some form and many people are interested in maximising their profits. This has led to a lot of publicity in ways to get profits higher than the market. The eventual possibility to receive abnormal returns indicates that the market is inefficient.</p><p>Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate if it historically has been possible to receive abnormal returns by implementing momentum- and contrarian strategies on the Swedish stock market. The purpose is also to test if the Swedish stock market has been efficient in weak form.</p><p>Implementation: The momentum strategy was tested by forming portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest relative price strength over the last six months. The portfolio abnormal returns were then followed for the following six months. The contrarian strategy was tested by forming winner portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest abnormal returns over the last three years. Loser portfolios were formed of the ten stocks with the lowest abnormal returns over the last three years. The portfolios abnormal returns were then compared to each other for the following three years.</p><p>Conclusion: We have reached the conclusion that it has been possible to receive abnormal returns by using the momentum strategy. It has been the most successful in periods of steady raises. The contrarian strategy has not generated any excess returns. We believe that reason for the results is that the market under reacts. Therefore we can state that the Swedish stock market not has been efficient in weak form during the examined period.</p>

<p><strong>Bakgrund:</strong> Fonder är en sparform som har utvecklats och blivit en av de mest populära och framgångsrika placeringsformerna på marknaden. Många företag väljer därför, efter en högkonjunktur följd av möjlighet till reservsparande, att investera på fondmarknaden för att kunna öka sitt kapital under kommande lågkonjunktur. Att välja en stor och trögrörlig eller en liten och snabbfotat fond kan vara av avgörande karaktär när man ska se till utvecklingen.</p><p><strong>Problemformulering:</strong> Har fondstorleken betydelse vid placering i fonder under lågkonjunktur?</p><p><strong>Syfte:</strong> Klargöra huruvida fondstorleken har betydelse för avkastningen vid placering i svenska aktiefonder under lågkonjunktur.</p><p><strong>Metod:</strong> Studien använder sig av metodtriangulering där ett kvantitativt upplägg kombineras med ett kvalitativt inslag i form av en intervju. En deduktiv ansats anammas. Urvalet har valts ut genom ett bekvämlighetsurval och datainsamling har skett i form av sekundärdata från Morningstar, Riksbanken samt Affärsvärlden. Med den informationen har uppsatsens empiri och resultat grundlagts och kunnat kopplas till teorier, tidigare forskning samt allmän uppfattning om fonder i analysen.</p><p><strong>Slutsats:</strong> Undersökningen visar att stora fonder, tätt följt av medelstora fonder, är den bästa investeringen under lågkonjunktur. Små fonder är mer snabbrörliga, har en högre standardavvikelse och risk men det innebär inte generellt att det utmynnar i en högre avkastning.</p> / <p><strong>Background:</strong> Fund saving is nowadays a very popular investment strategy when it comes to putting money aside on the market. After a big economic boom, with the potential of gathering up assets, companies choose  to invest in the fund market with the possibility to increase their wealth when a recession is up and coming. When it comes to how well the fund is developing, one needs to make a critical decision and choose either a big and sluggish one or a small and swift-footed one.</p><p><strong>Problem formulation:</strong> Does fund size matter when investing in funds during recession?</p><p><strong>Purpose:</strong> Determine whether fund size has an impact on return rate when investing in Swedish mutual funds during recession.</p><p><strong>Method:</strong> Different types of methods will be used throughout the study to ensure good quality and enough quantity. Mainly quantitative layout (data gathering from the Swedish State Bank, Morningstar and Affärsvärlden) featuring a qualitative interview and a deductive approach. With established empirics and elicited results, the study has been able to connect the theories used, the previous research in the field and the common view of funds among society to its analysis.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Theory suggests that large funds, closely followed by mediumsized funds are the best investment during recessions. Small funds are more fastmoving, has a higher standard deviation and risk but it does not, generally, out-flow into a higher return.</p>

<p>This paper investigates whether the traditional accrual based trading strategy first documented by Sloan (1996) can be refined using fundamental analysis. Specifically, this is done by implementing the composite signal F_SCORE introduced by Piotroski (2000) to identify financially strong or weak firms. We find that by applying both investment models simultaneously, in a model we call P_KOMB, the mean market-adjusted return earned by an investor exploiting the accrual anomaly can be increased by 14.8% annually. This is achieved by taking a long position in strong firms (as defined by the composite signal) in the lowest accrual portfolio, while an offsetting short position is taken in weak firms in the highest accrual portfolio, repeated annually between 1997 and 2007. Consistent with prior studies, positive market-adjusted returns can be attained through assessment of accruals as well as key value drivers found in historical financial data. Moreover, our results indicate that accruals are a more powerful determinant for future return than the fundamentals in the composite signal. The evidence suggests, however, that the accrual anomaly is best exploited in combination with the fundamental signals to maximise returns.</p>

Bakgrund: 4 av 5 svenskar äger aktier i någon form och det är många som är intresserade av att maximera sin avkastning. Det har lett till att det skrivs mycket i media om olika sätt att få avkastning högre än marknaden. Om det skulle vara möjligt att nå överavkastning är det en indikation på att marknaden inte är effektiv. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det historiskt har gått att nå en överavkastning genom tillämpa momentum- eller motsatstrategin på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Syftet är även att testa om den svenska aktiemarknaden har varit effektiv i svag form. Genomförande: Momentumstrategin testades genom att portföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst relativ prisstyrka de senaste sex månaderna. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastning har sedan följts i sex månader. Motsatsstrategin testades genom att vinnarportföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst avkastning de senaste tre åren och förlorarportföljer formades för de med lägst avkastning. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastningar under de kommande tre åren jämfördes sedan med varandra. Slutsats: Vi har kommit fram till att det har gått att nå en överavkastning med hjälp av momentumstrategin och att den har fungerat bäst i perioder av stabila uppgångar. Det har däremot inte gått att få överavkastning med hjälp av motsatsstrategin. Vi menar att resultatet beror på att marknaden underreagerar. Därmed kan vi säga att den svenska aktiemarknaden under den undersöka tidsperioden inte har varit effektiv i svag form. / Background: 4 out of 5 Swedes own stocks in some form and many people are interested in maximising their profits. This has led to a lot of publicity in ways to get profits higher than the market. The eventual possibility to receive abnormal returns indicates that the market is inefficient. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate if it historically has been possible to receive abnormal returns by implementing momentum- and contrarian strategies on the Swedish stock market. The purpose is also to test if the Swedish stock market has been efficient in weak form. Implementation: The momentum strategy was tested by forming portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest relative price strength over the last six months. The portfolio abnormal returns were then followed for the following six months. The contrarian strategy was tested by forming winner portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest abnormal returns over the last three years. Loser portfolios were formed of the ten stocks with the lowest abnormal returns over the last three years. The portfolios abnormal returns were then compared to each other for the following three years. Conclusion: We have reached the conclusion that it has been possible to receive abnormal returns by using the momentum strategy. It has been the most successful in periods of steady raises. The contrarian strategy has not generated any excess returns. We believe that reason for the results is that the market under reacts. Therefore we can state that the Swedish stock market not has been efficient in weak form during the examined period.