A census of 24 coupled (CMIP) and 13 uncoupled (AMIP) models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) were compared with observations and reanalysis to show varied ability of the models to simulate Caribbean precipitation and mechanisms related to precipitation in the region. Not only were errors seen in the annual mean, with CMIP models underestimating both rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) and AMIP models overestimating rainfall, the annual cycle was also incorrect. Large overestimates of precipitation at all SSTs (and particularly above 28 degrees C) and at vertical circulations less than -10 hPa/day (the deep convective regime) were inherent in the atmospheric models with models using spectral type convective parameterizations performing best. In coupled models, however, errors in the frequency of occurrence of SSTs (the distribution is cold biased) and deep convective vertical circulations (reduced frequency) lead to an underestimation of Caribbean mean precipitation. On daily timescales, the models were shown to produce too frequent light rainfall amounts (especially less than 1 mm/day) and dry extremes and too few heavy rainfall amounts and wet extremes. The simulation of the mid-summer drought (MSD) proved a challenge for the models, despite their ability to produce a Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) in the correct location. Errors in the CLLJ, such as too strong magnitude and weak semi-annual cycle, were worse in the CMIP models and were attributed to problems with the location and seasonal evolution of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in both CMIP and AMIP models. Despite these discrepancies between models and observations, the ability of the models to simulate the correlation between the CLLJ and precipitation varied based on season and region, with the connection with United States precipitation particularly problematic in the AMIP simulations. An observational study of intraseasonal precipitation in the Caribbean showed an explicit connection between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and Caribbean precipitation for the first time. Precipitation anomalies up to 50 percent above (below) the annual mean are observed in phases 1 and 2 (5 and 6) of the MJO and are related to changes in the CLLJ, that is also modulated by the MJO. Considerable progress has been made on identifying both problems and successes in the simulation of Caribbean climate in general circulation models, but many areas still require investigation.

The aim of this study is to examine the framing of the issue of climate change in two swedish daily newspapers . 55 texts, 36 of which are from the morning newspaper Dagens Nyheter and 19 from the tabloid Aftonbladet go through a critical discourse analysis in terms of how they portray climate change itself, the actors involved, blame and responsibility for causing and alleviating the problem, possible solutions, system criticism as well as which ideologies and power relationships are supported by existing narratives. Louw's understanding of mass media as hype, Fairclough's perspectives on discourse, Strömbäck's perspectives on agenda setting and Palm's study of the factors behind news production have been central to the theoretical approach of the study, as have Machin and Mayr's work on critical discourse analysis. The results show that there are two main recurring discourses in the analysed material. One describes climate change as a threat. This narrative describes a struggle between civilisation and nature and places blame on all humans in a manner that closely relates to the christian concept of original sin. It is a discourse that emphasizes the following of rules and strict moral codes, naming those who do not follow the Swedish example as cheaters or villains while excluding non-civilized humans. The other, economic, discourse frames the problem of climate change as one of costs and incentives. The climate is given a monetary value, suggesting everything involved is as exchangeable as money. No alternative discourse challenges the two discourses, which interact and reinforce eachother, both legitimizing human domination of nature as well as current power relations in society.

No description available.

Dairy farms can apply anaerobic digestion (AD) as a manure management system, while producing renewable energy. Ultimately, this can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is much research work that has quantified the changes in emissions due to AD. However, important methodologies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines, rely only on a small sample of the accumulated scientific findings in the field. This thesis improves the robustness of these methodologies by applying data-driven techniques to estimate values of the energy output of AD systems and their consequent effect in GHG emissions. For this purpose, meta-analyses techniques are applied to mathematically combine metrics from 155 non-standardised research publications (i.e. with different boundaries, scopes and functional units). As a first step, a novel database is created by systematically searching for relevant articles and assessing them against defined criteria. The database is divided in two parts. Given that the offset of GHGs is highly dependent on the energy output of AD system, empirical methane yields (i.e. key metric of AD performance) are collected in Part I of the database. GHG released from different farm activities are input to Part II of the database. To quantify the change in emissions from these activities, standard baseline and AD scenarios are defined. The second step of the meta-analysis consists of applying uni- and multi-variate tests to the database. For Part I, methane yields are analysed in terms of type of digesters. From the batch digesters, new maximum methane yields are proposed based on the combined results of 42 peer reviewed articles. These results offer better estimates than default values of methane yields from the 2007 Guidelines of the IPCC, which only consider two studies. For continuously stirred tank digesters and semi-continuous digesters lower methane yields are revealed. Multi-variate analysis of methane yields together with operating conditions and manure composition, enable the identification of clusters. These groups of variables can be useful to build potential AD scenarios in dairy farms. For Part II of the database, relative changes in emissions between the activities in the standardised baseline and AD scenarios, are examined. It is found, through meta-analysis, that replacing raw manure by anaerobically-treated manure (i.e. digestate) in storage tanks and for field- application, mitigates baseline emissions by 38.7% and 6.9%, respectively. These relative changes can be used to estimate emissions from digestate, being more specific and evidence-based than the current methodology from the IPCC. In addition, relative changes found for offset of fossil fuels by biogas generated in the AD scenarios indicate a reduction of baseline emissions by 9.0%. Only methane leaks from digesters significantly increase the baseline emissions (by 7.4%). Finally, results found by meta-analyses of methane yields and changes in emissions are applied to four dairy farm case studies. The work presented in the case studies demonstrates the benefits of enhancing the robustness of methods to estimate the effect of AD on GHG emissions from dairy farms.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2016-06-21T20:01:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalytaSoaresDosSantos_TESE.pdf: 16287598 bytes, checksum: a996869d4d7fd2e51ecc19b47b4b9bc4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-06-23T18:14:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalytaSoaresDosSantos_TESE.pdf: 16287598 bytes, checksum: a996869d4d7fd2e51ecc19b47b4b9bc4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-23T18:14:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalytaSoaresDosSantos_TESE.pdf: 16287598 bytes, checksum: a996869d4d7fd2e51ecc19b47b4b9bc4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-30 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / Neste trabalho objetivamos analisar as incertezas envolvidas nas proje??es de mudan?as clim?ticas na Am?rica do Sul (AS) simuladas por in?meros modelos num?ricos de circula??o geral acoplado oceano-atmosfera (MCGOA) da Quinta Fase do Projeto do Modelo Intercompara??o Acoplado (CMIP5) para a Am?rica do Sul. As incertezas nas proje??es das mudan?as clim?ticas futuras surgem a partir de fontes diferentes e s?o introduzidos na sequ?ncia de passos no processo de modela??o, produzindo assim uma cascata de incertezas (Knutti et al. de 2010;. Giorgi 2005). Essas incertezas projetadas pelos modelos clim?ticos ser?o calculadas atrav?s do m?todo Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) desenvolvido por Giogi e Mearns (2002) que ? utilizado para calcular o intervalo de incerteza e uma medida de confiabilidade das mudan?as clim?ticas simuladas por um conjunto de diferentes modelos de circula??o geral da atmosfera. O m?todo leva em conta dois crit?rios de confiabilidade; i) o desempenho do modelo em reproduzir o clima atual e, ii) converg?ncia das mudan?as simuladas entre os modelos. O REA ser? aplicado para os s?culos XX e XXI em diferentes cen?rios do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ou Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudan?as Clim?ticas). Em uma segunda fase, ser? aplicado tamb?m Redes Neurais Artificias (RNA) juntamente com o c?lculo das incertezas, para avaliarmos se uso das RNA ser?o uma boa ferramenta para diminuir as incertezas geradas pelos modelos, melhorando assim a precis?o dos mesmos. Assim sendo, com o estudo proposto espera-se avaliar e quantificar detalhadamente os intervalos de incerteza nas mudan?as clim?ticas apresentadas no CMIP5 para a AS, com e sem a utiliza??o de RNA, relacionadas ao uso de diferentes modelos num?ricos e futuras emiss?es de gases de efeito estufa. Avaliando os n?veis de incerteza, disponibilizaremos uma ferramenta muito ?til para os estudos de impacto, adapta??o e vulnerabilidade. Os resultados preliminares deste estudo mostraram que a varia??o REA para a precipita??o ? um pouco menor sobre a Am?rica Sul em compara??o com a m?dia simples conjunto de modelos. A confiabilidade do conjunto de modelos foi satisfat?ria para toda a Am?rica do Sul, indicando boa simula??o dos modelos nessa regi?o.

The IPCCand the FCCC are both central institutions in the international handling of the climate change issue. How these institutions frame and define the climate change issue is decisive for the action taken in response. The aim of this thesis was to analyze and describe how the climate change problem is framed and defined within the FCCC and the IPCC. Furthermore, the aim was also to examine if there are any differences between the IPCC’s and the FCCC’s framings and definitions of the climate change problem, and if so, what those differences consist of. The analysis was based on a line of documents from the IPCC and the FCCC, which were analyzed through a qualitative textual analysis. The results of the analysis indicate that there are both similarities and dissimilarities between the institutions. The definitions of the term climate change differ in the sense that the FCCC only regards human-induced changes in climate, as climate change. The IPCC, on the other hand, includes both natural variability and human-induced changes in its definition of climate change. In the practical usage the definitions are similar, and the results indicate that the IPCC in practice has adopted the FCCC’s definition and only focuses on anthropogenic climate change. The climate change issue is by both of the institutions perceived as a greenhouse gas question, and the consequences are described as very extensive and serious. The FCCC gives advantages to mitigative responses in relation to adaptive, and also the IPCC describes mitigative responses as advantageous. Finally, the study indicates that there is a linking between the scientific and political spheres, which is extended by the fact that the FCCC’s definition of climate change creates a demand for scientific input in the decision-making process. The science and policy relationship builds upon mutual expectations of what the respective spheres can contribute with in terms of useful knowledge and policy-relevant questions.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Os modelos globais do CMPI3 para o quarto relatÃrio do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) sÃo avaliados para a regiÃo do Nordeste, AmazÃnia e bacia da Prata quanto à representaÃÃo da sazonalidade e da variabilidade plurianual da precipitaÃÃo para o perÃodo de 1901 a 1999. Essa avaliaÃÃo à realizada utilizando-se os dados do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e a reanÃlise 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Quanto à sazonalidade propÃe-se a criaÃÃo de um Ãndice de desempenho, baseado em medidas de correlaÃÃo e erro quadrÃtico mÃdio, para a avaliaÃÃo e classificaÃÃo dos modelos. Quanto à variabilidade plurianual, à aplicada a transformada de ondeletas aos dados observados, e em seguida as rodadas dos modelos sÃo avaliadas e classificadas baseadas em medidas de correlaÃÃo espectral e distÃncia euclidiana entre a variÃncia nas bandas existentes na sÃrie observada. Logo, os modelos sÃo classificados seguindo a avaliaÃÃo geral, sendo para o Nordeste o modelo CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2, para a regiÃo da bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 e para a regiÃo AmazÃnica o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 os que melhor representaram a precipitaÃÃo no sÃculo XX. Para o cenÃrio A1B à feito um anÃlise de projeÃÃes sazonais e tendÃncias plurianuais dos modelos melhor colocados na avaliaÃÃo sazonal e geral de cada regiÃo. Quanto à projeÃÃo sazonal a anÃlise consiste no cÃlculo das anomalias de precipitaÃÃo em todos os modelos para os perÃodos 2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099 em relaÃÃo ao cenÃrio de simulaÃÃes 20C3M durante o perÃodo 1901-1999. Quanto à tendÃncia plurianual para o perÃodo de 2010 a 2099, as precipitaÃÃes anuais sÃo padronizadas, com base nos parÃmetros do cenÃrio 20C3M. Logo à feita uma anÃlise de tendÃncias usando a mÃdia e mediana mÃvel de 10 anos, regressÃo linear, Mann Kendall Sen e Ondeletas. Na tendÃncia por ondeletas o modelo MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3, nÃo indica tendÃncia o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 indica uma tendÃncia de aumento a partir de 2030, o UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 mostra uma tendÃncia de reduÃÃo atà 2050 na regiÃo do Nordeste. Na bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indica tendÃncia de aumento ao longo do sÃculo XXI, o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1mostra aumento a partir de 2030 e o modelo NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 nÃo mostra nenhuma tendÃncia. Na AmazÃnia os modelos CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 nÃo indicam nenhuma tendÃncia ao longo do sÃculo XXI. / The global models of CMPI3 to the fourth report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) are evaluated for the Northeast Brazilian region, Amazon region and La Plata basin for the representation of seasonality and multiannual variability of precipitation for the period 1901 to 1999. This evaluation is performed using data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For the seasonality study is proposed to create a performance index based on measures of correlation and mean square error to the evaluation and model classification. For the multiannual variability, is applied the wavelet transform to the observed data, and then models are evaluated and ranked based on measures of spectral correlation and Euclidean distance between the observed variance and models variance in each band. Then, models are classified following the general classification, for the Northeast the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2 model; for La Plata basin the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 model; for the Amazon region the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 model those which best represented the rainfall in the twentieth century. At A1B scenario, is made an analysis of seasonal forecast and multiannual trends of better placed models in the seasonal and general classification. For the seasonal projection, analysis consist in the anomalies precipitation calculations on all models for the periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 during the period 1901- 1999. For the multiannual trends for the period 2010 to 2099, annual observed data are standardized, based on the parameters of the scenario 20C3M. Then is done an analysis with average moving, median moving of 10 years, regression linear, Mann Kendall Sen and Wavelet transform. In wavelets trends the MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3 model does not indicate trend, the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 model indicates an increasing trend from 2030, the UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 model shows a declining trend by 2050 in the Northeast. In La Plata basin, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indicates increasing trend throughout the twenty first century, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1 shows an increase trend from 2030 and the NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 model shows no trend. In the Amazon region, the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 models do not indicate any trend over the twenty-first century.

To be in line with the Paris Agreement and mitigate average temperature rise to 1.5°C, and to a maximum of 2°C, greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced close to zero before mid-century. If these targets are to be reached, rapid and complete decarbonisation of every sector within the global economy is required. Currently, energy-intensive industrial sectors account for more than 30% of global energy use, and are responsible for approximately 50 % of global greenhouse gas emissions, whereas the iron and steel industries have the largest aggregated greenhouse gas emissions globally. Although the steel industry is at the cusp of major climate neutrality transitions, as recent studies have presented opportunities of producing completely fossil-free steel, decarbonising large-scale production processes is a complex query affected by a multitude of internal and external factors. Höganäs AB, as one of the largest powder metal manufacturers in Sweden, has initiated their work towards net-zero emissions in 2045. With production sites in over 18 countries, the company serves as an example of a company in the midst of turning a “hard-to-abate” industry towards being sustainable.  The aim of this study is thus to assess the effects of climate agendas and frameworks, such as the Paris Agreement and the IPCC Report on initiatives and policies on a global, national and regional level within countries where Höganäs AB has its major production facilities. The aim is further to review the effects of climate strategies and targets on the steel and powder metal industry, as well as to monitor the industry’s inclinations towards climate neutrality. The findings of the performed literature study, as well as the conducted qualitative interviews, resulted in a framework regarding how to identify and assess trends within the steel and powder metal industry based on two theoretical perspectives on corporate climate transitions. Through the results, it could be concluded that despite all countries having ratified the Paris Agreement as of January 2021, no country is currently on the path towards reaching the 1.5°C target that is recommended by the IPCC Report and the Paris Agreement. Still, there is a growing demand for low-carbon technology and renewable energy in every country, something that will partly weigh up for both up-scaled industrial production and countries’ increased GDP. Within the industry, an increased number of initiatives and commitments has been launched during the past few years, indicating that questions of climate change and sustainability are being entrenched in the corporate sector. Going forward, indicators to measure continuous improvements to reach net-zero are associated with emission- and energy data, value chain management and industry investments. As technological advancements towards hydrogen, electrification and digitalisation are being upscaled and increasingly tangible, climate neutrality in the PM and steel industry is achievable through a profound and intended climate focus and an increased sense of urgency.

What is the most effective problem solving method at the environmental policy table in the context of a radical diversity of worldviews? I answer the question in the dissertation by developing a theory that accommodates diversity in policymaking. My line of reasoning is as follows. In Chapter One, I survey the diverse discourse about Global Climate Models in detail. I demonstrate that a radical diversity of worldviews is expressed in the discourse. In Chapter Two, I advance a model of language that is an accurate foundation for discourse in policymaking. In Chapter Three, I consider the best policymaking strategy in view of the language model: idea-based policymaking. I then demonstrate that the policymaking strategy is weakly theorized. I introduce a theory of its operation at the end of Chapter Three, and develop it in detail in Chapters Four and Five. Because there is not currently a model, I consider an analogue model in play and explain the analogy in Chapter Four. I apply the analogue to the policy table in Chapter Five and fully develop an operational theory to explicate the problem solving method in policymaking. The force of the dissertation's contribution is made in Chapters Three to Five. Chapters One and Two are a ground of the argument. In Chapters Three to Five, I argue that idea-based policymaking is a promising form of policymaking practice because social learning is the operative problem-solving mechanism. In social learning: (1) the worldviews of the actors are leveraged in discourse and (2) power relations are dynamically distributed among actors (Hajer). The result is a fortified problem solving operation. This is because in (1) the heterogeneous problem solving resources of the group members are distributed and in (2) social learning shifts power relations by dislodging, mediating, and subsuming a new power regime. In summary, the dissertation is a contribution in applied philosophy. I comprehensively demonstrate that an effective policymaking method will manage the incommensurability of worldview and stipulate a problem solving method that engages the basic condition of policymaking--radical diversity--rather than denies it. / Philosophy

While sustainability and climate-resilient development become more prominent topics in international debates, the question of how Indigenous Peoples are included in environmental policies and decision-making arises. Postcolonial theory has argued for the need to decolonize the discipline of International Relations and other scientific assessments rooted in Eurocentric standards that have been homogenized and imposed onto different cultures through colonization. This thesis employs a postcolonial lens to investigate the representation of Indigenous Peoples in reports issued by the United Nations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by conducting a content analysis of the Global Sustainable Development Report (GSDR) 2023 and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). It finds that although the documents intend to engage with Indigenous Knowledge and recognize its importance, they still lack cultural aspects of Indigenous perspectives on development that differ from established views of the Global North. The right to self-determination and rupture from colonial structures are essential for Indigenous ideas of development, and their epistemologies must be considered equally valid rather than superficially integrated into non-Indigenous science to advance plans toward an ‘ideal society’ that perpetuates their marginalization.